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Fun with mocks

Colin@gbn : 4/9/2018 10:22 am
Morning guys. For those that havenít seen it we have updated our three-round projection for this monthís draft Ė only 17 days to go; hang in there! Folks are certainly are invited to take a look at the Giants picks, although they come with the proviso that, with the exception of the 2nd pick, like everybody else we are just guessing! Indeed, over the years we have liked to add the note that we generally aren't big fans of mock drafts. They are fun to do and, analyzed correctly, can provide some useful information. However, most fans tend to read them as 'mini-drafts' and focus only on the picks assigned to their respective team and ultimately miss the point of the exercise which is not to identify which particular player a particular team is going to pick at a particular spot in the draft, but to give some idea what players are likely to be available at different spots in the draft. And in doing this latest mock several things did jump out at us that will likely impact how the Giants approach this yearís draft, in particular once we get out of the opening round.

For the record, we have the Giants taking Josh Rosen with the #2 pick. Of course, we wonít know for sure until the 26th whom they actually select, but it wouldnít surprise us despite some media reporting to the contrary that Rosenís actually been the Giantsí guy for several weeks now. The Giants appear to be doing due diligence on a lot of players but you simply donít send a 5-man contingent to a guyís pro day and then come back a week later with an 8-man group at a private workout unless you already have a really good grade on the player. And your owner doesnít make a 6,000 mile cross-country round trip trip to have dinner with the kid if your arenít seriously, seriously looking at him. Thatís what tells tell you and in draft terms that may have been the mother-of-all-tells!

As we have stated before though what could be the most interesting part of the Giants 2018 draft is what they do with their second-day picks. And the first thing that jumps out at one is just how many good players are likely to be available when the Giants make their second round pick. In fact, interior offensive linemen Isaiah Wynn, James Daniels and Billy Price were all still on the board at #34 and while that may seem a tad unlikely itís hard to see a scenario where at least 1-2 of those guys donít make it to the second round. For the record, there are whispers that Wynn (shoulder) and Price (pecs) may slip because of injuries. There is also the reality that the only teams that usually take OGs and Cs in the opening round are teams that really need one and there really arenít many of those types of teams about picking in the latter part of the opening round. And if those OL donít fall it will just push other players down to #34.

And while the offensive line obviously still needs work, the argument can be made that the Giants actual biggest remaining need is at CB where their two starters are on-again, off-again head cases and they have little if any depth. The good news for the Giants, though, is that along with C/G, the strength of the early part of the second round is at CB as there is a better than even chance that several corners such as Carlton Davis, Isaiah Oliver, Mike Hughes, Donte Jackson, and maybe even Josh Jackson (who went late first in our mock) could be available. In the end, we went with Wynn at #34 (in no small part because weíd catch grief from you guys if we didnít). But it was awfully tempting to take one of those corners.

The other thing complicating the CB issue is that it appears there will be a major drop-off at the position into the 3rd round. There are, for example, several legit starting quality CBs in the second round, whereas the corners likely to be available in the 3rd are more situational types. (Note though that one can make the same argument about the offensive line).

The other issue we expect the Giants would like to address in this yearís draft is the pass rush or apparent lack thereof at this time. And thatís not to mention the fact that they are transitioning to a 3-4 but have virtually no prototype 3-4 players on the roster. The interesting thing with the ERs is that there likely wonít be much there in the second round although we wonder if the Giants might be really interested in Lorenzo Carter of Georgia as an edge rushing OLB if he slipped into the second round. He appears to be one of the rising stars in this yearís draft. In contrast, it looks like there will be a number of ERs and 5T DEs available in the 3rd. We had the Giants taking Rasheem Green and Uchenna Nwosu both of USC with their two 3rd round picks, but there were several other DE types including DaíShawn Hand of Alabama, Trent Thompson of Georgia while ERs still on the board included Turay of Rutgers, Sweat of Florida State, Okoronkwo of Oklahoma, and Ade Aruna of Tulane.

Of course, the Giants could go in other directions. There were pretty good RBs available early in both the second and third rounds. There were also some decent developmental type OTs in the third.

The early returns also suggest that the Giants could have some options in the 4th round. Guys that we didnít have going in the first three rounds include RBs Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman, Jaylen Samuels, Bo Scarborough, and Kalen Ballage; OLBs Oren Burks, Marquis Haynes, Jeff Holland and Shaq Griffin; DEs Chad Thomas and Breeland Speaks; CBs Ike Yiadom, Quenton Meeks and Avonte Maddox; OL like Mason Cole, Alex Cappa, Jamarco Jones and Joe Noteboom. Of course, some of those guys will go earlier, but that in turn just pushes other guys down. Should be a fun weekend when it finally gets here.
Andy in Boston : 4/9/2018 10:29 am : link
Thanks for the post and for sharing.

Really like the 2nd and 3rd round picks.
Wasn't sure if you saw it...and who knows if its accurate but there was an article posted this a.m. quoting an NFL scout saying the Giants did not like Rosen. We'll see.

Interesting that you think Hernandez gets drafted before Wynn....but some of it I'm sure is what teams need a Center and that's probably where Wynn could eventually project. He could play LG this year for Giants...Center next year.
For sure  
idiotsavant : 4/9/2018 10:38 am : link
Too many needs or desires for one year.

My best guess? Draft Pass rushers and line men for both sides early. ++ RBs, lbs.

Free agents- veteran corners and wrs for 2018 and look for corners and wrs in 2019 draft.

Surprise first round pick? Safety.
Thanks so much Colin for your...  
M.S. : 4/9/2018 10:52 am : link

...3-round mock! Fascinating to see the possibilities unfold as we get late into Round One and the beginning of Round Two.

Can't wait for the Draft to begin.

George from PA : 4/9/2018 12:00 pm : link
I presume you didn't get memo that they do like Rosen. lol
Intrigue at the top  
Colin@gbn : 4/9/2018 12:19 pm : link
Couple of comments: First to Andy as noted Wynn may be slipping just a tad because of concerns about his shoulder, while Hernandez really blew people away at the combine; everybody knew he was a roadgrader, but he showed really unexpected athleticism in Indy.

Re the Rosen stuff; we have sources hinting to us that there is something going on - maybe - at the top of the board that goes something like this. In recent weeks Rosen has emerged as the #1 QB, in fact, I had one former scout tell me that he thought that Rosen was the best pure passer he'd seen in a long, long while. The Browns in fact would take him at 1 but likely won't because a) he doesn't want to be there and b) wouldn't be a good fit as the face of the franchise; Cleveland has a conservative fan base, while Rosen is an unabashed progressive who's not shy about stating his opinion. Meanwhile, both the Jets and Bills are pushing hard to trade up to #1 with the Browns to get Rosen; in that scenario the Browns would still get one of the top QBs at either 3 or 4. The Giants are particularly concerned about the Jets and maybe downplaying their interest in Rosen to cool the Jets' jets; ie if both the Browns and Giants passed Rosen would be there at #3. I hate conspiracy theory type stuff but one can see more than a few grains of reality there. Stay tuned!
Thanks Colin  
ZogZerg : 4/9/2018 12:24 pm : link
I hope you are right about the first round pick!

6 QBs in first round and 2 more in 2nd round. wow!
ZogZerg : 4/9/2018 12:29 pm : link
This year there is no way Cleveland trades out of #1. Not a chance. They are not picking Rosen either. So, the Giants get Rosen or they could trade pick to Bills (if hey want him that bad) and get a ton of picks in return.
Colin, you're the first "media" member  
aimrocky : 4/9/2018 12:42 pm : link
to actually post a theory with some fact behind it. I hope your theory is right... It's odd how the buzz around Rosen is either negative or non existent.
thanks Colin  
gidiefor : Mod : 4/9/2018 5:04 pm : link
you have G Baden Smith going a lot lower than I thought he might, Barkley too
so would Giants swap picks with Jets?  
George from PA : 4/9/2018 5:55 pm : link
why trade with Buffalo.
Since I watch very little college football...  
Big Blue Blogger : 4/10/2018 1:17 am : link
... I depend on Colin, Sy'56 and other great BBI contributors for insights on possible future Giants. At this point, I like almost everything I read about Rosen and hope he's the pick at #2 if the Giants don't trade out of the spot.

Obviously, the medical stuff is a concern. On the other hand, the carping about him coming from a rich family seems a little weird; Peyton and Eli didn't exactly grow up poor.

I've held off mentioning Rosen's politics out of deference to Eric. Now that Colin has put it "out there", I guess the topic is fair game. If the Browns actually pass on Rosen because he wore a "F*ck Trump" bandanna and his father is too successful (and maybe too Shaker Heights for the Dog Pound), my only comment will be, "Thank you, Cleveland." Besides, isn't the serious money from his mother's side, the Quaker Wharton/Lippincotts?
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