Worst case scenario re: QB imo

Every time there’s a predicted weak class, there ends up being good players. This class is deep, but doesn’t seem high. There’s always a FA class that is as good as most draft classes. This year, it was especially so.

The sky will still stay up in the sky.

And then we will have lunch.

To me, the worst case is picking the wrong guy which leads to shitty seasons.

The Giants are where they've been for a while, and it's where most teams in the league are:

- Healthy year with all the breaks: 10-6/11-5 but not a real contender
- Injuries and few breaks: 6-10 with a possibility of a complete breakdown to something worse

If they're going to ascend out of that group into something higher, I think the move is to trade the older QB for whatever they can get, draft his replacement, and start the kid from day 1. Yeah we eat a lot of money in 2018 with Eli, but IMO that cost is worth it to get the rookie's lumps out of the way as quickly as possible.

horrible accident? just asking in this worse case scenario?

Terps.

In comment 13908435 Go Terps said:

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The Giants are where they've been for a while, and it's where most teams in the league are: - Healthy year with all the breaks: 10-6/11-5 but not a real contender - Injuries and few breaks: 6-10 with a possibility of a complete breakdown to something worse If they're going to ascend out of that group into something higher, I think the move is to trade the older QB for whatever they can get, draft his replacement, and start the kid from day 1. Yeah we eat a lot of money in 2018 with Eli, but IMO that cost is worth it to get the rookie's lumps out of the way as quickly as possible.

Yep. Take the emotion out of it and this makes the most sense. That rookie year helped Wentz tremendously.

then davis webb lights it up in practice and pre season and the rook looks lost,then what.

In comment 13908435 Go Terps said:

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The Giants are where they've been for a while, and it's where most teams in the league are: - Healthy year with all the breaks: 10-6/11-5 but not a real contender - Injuries and few breaks: 6-10 with a possibility of a complete breakdown to something worse If they're going to ascend out of that group into something higher, I think the move is to trade the older QB for whatever they can get, draft his replacement, and start the kid from day 1. Yeah we eat a lot of money in 2018 with Eli, but IMO that cost is worth it to get the rookie's lumps out of the way as quickly as possible.

Pretty much. Given the parameters of the CBA and an ownership willing to spend the entire cap, the main advantage of drafting a new franchise QB is the 4(5) cheap years. The notion of wasting two of them on the QB of the past seems very wasteful. Even if Eli starts this year, unless the team is in serious playoff contention he probably shouldn't finish it (even if it's Webb which needs to be evaluated and not some high draft pick)

In comment 13908458 sundayatone said:

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then davis webb lights it up in practice and pre season and the rook looks lost,then what.

I think if we draft a QB at 2 we're sending the message he's going to be the guy.

No one loves Eli more than me, but the only situation in which having him as our QB for a $22M cap hit is if we're ready to compete for a title. And I don't by the "mentor" role for Eli benefiting the next guy more than actual game experience.

The sooner Darnold/Rosen/Allen/whomever plays now, the sooner the team is likely to get good.

In comment 13908458 sundayatone said:

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then davis webb lights it up in practice and pre season and the rook looks lost,then what.

Then we potentially have two really good QBs on our hands. What a terrible problem to have! Thankfully, trades are allowed in the NFL, so if the time comes and we commit to the two pick (in your scenario) but there is a strong market for Webb, we can parlay it into a nice return. Worst case scenario we have a great backup for the next three years.

Though I think the case can be made that we're better off moving forward with him as the starting QB in 2018 than with Eli.

In comment 13908468 Giants34 said:

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In comment 13908458 sundayatone said: Quote: then davis webb lights it up in practice and pre season and the rook looks lost,then what. Then we potentially have two really good QBs on our hands. What a terrible problem to have! Thankfully, trades are allowed in the NFL, so if the time comes and we commit to the two pick (in your scenario) but there is a strong market for Webb, we can parlay it into a nice return. Worst case scenario we have a great backup for the next three years.

if the rook does not play and is inactive for all of 2018 how do you know what you have?

And we know next year isnt a big QB year

That’s why teams like the Browns, Jets, 9ers were positioning last year. 49ers ducked out early with Garoppolo.

IF someone emerges a big IF, they will go very high. maybe 1.

To trade up you need a team willing to do so. Plus the cost will be the kings ransom

In comment 13908435 Go Terps said:

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The Giants are where they've been for a while, and it's where most teams in the league are: - Healthy year with all the breaks: 10-6/11-5 but not a real contender - Injuries and few breaks: 6-10 with a possibility of a complete breakdown to something worse If they're going to ascend out of that group into something higher, I think the move is to trade the older QB for whatever they can get, draft his replacement, and start the kid from day 1. Yeah we eat a lot of money in 2018 with Eli, but IMO that cost is worth it to get the rookie's lumps out of the way as quickly as possible.

I would be on board with this scenario even though I love Eli, but the problem is you can't trade him (NTC), and if you cut him you still take a cap hit.

In comment 13908489 bradshaw44 said:

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In comment 13908435 Go Terps said: Quote: The Giants are where they've been for a while, and it's where most teams in the league are: - Healthy year with all the breaks: 10-6/11-5 but not a real contender - Injuries and few breaks: 6-10 with a possibility of a complete breakdown to something worse If they're going to ascend out of that group into something higher, I think the move is to trade the older QB for whatever they can get, draft his replacement, and start the kid from day 1. Yeah we eat a lot of money in 2018 with Eli, but IMO that cost is worth it to get the rookie's lumps out of the way as quickly as possible. I would be on board with this scenario even though I love Eli, but the problem is you can't trade him (NTC), and if you cut him you still take a cap hit.

Actually, releasing Eli as a June 1st cut will split the dead cap over 2 years ($6.2M for this year and next). The problem is that Eli has already received a $5M roster bonus and a $500K workout bonus. All bonus must be accounted for on the cap in the year they are paid so if he was released with a June 1st designation, then his cap hit this year is $11.7M and $6.2M next. If he is traded (with Eli waiving the NTC), then the full dead cap hit is accelerated into this year's cap. $12.4M + $5.5M = $17.9M this year.

With the cap ramifications, the Giants don't have the room to absorb the hit without restructuring/releasing other players. The reality is that any trade/release is wishful thinking. Eli will be the starter for 2018.

In comment 13908469 Go Terps said:

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Though I think the case can be made that we're better off moving forward with him as the starting QB in 2018 than with Eli.

Pat has already stated his evaluation of Webb over the next few weeks of camp will be a factor

mop ups are who they see as his replacement, unless they alternate if > 1 mop up.
'19 likely as well, unless the OL play is viewed as good or better, yet Eli's '18 performance is poor.
2 months ago we were in talking a likely 2 + years rebuild.
We still are. Stay calm, let an 'adult' evaluate.

In comment 13908412 Bill L said:

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Every time there’s a predicted weak class, there ends up being good players. This class is deep, but doesn’t seem high. There’s always a FA class that is as good as most draft classes. This year, it was especially so. The sky will still stay up in the sky. And then we will have lunch.

We could see four QBs get picked in the first five picks. It's plenty high. I realize you don't necessarily share that opinion (and you may well be right), but let's not pretend that your view is consistent with the general consensus.

The one thing that is definitely not accurate is that all QB classes are basically the same, which is sort of the core tenet of your position, if I'm understanding you properly.

In comment 13908520 Diver_Down said:

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In comment 13908489 bradshaw44 said: Quote: In comment 13908435 Go Terps said: Quote: The Giants are where they've been for a while, and it's where most teams in the league are: - Healthy year with all the breaks: 10-6/11-5 but not a real contender - Injuries and few breaks: 6-10 with a possibility of a complete breakdown to something worse If they're going to ascend out of that group into something higher, I think the move is to trade the older QB for whatever they can get, draft his replacement, and start the kid from day 1. Yeah we eat a lot of money in 2018 with Eli, but IMO that cost is worth it to get the rookie's lumps out of the way as quickly as possible. I would be on board with this scenario even though I love Eli, but the problem is you can't trade him (NTC), and if you cut him you still take a cap hit. Actually, releasing Eli as a June 1st cut will split the dead cap over 2 years ($6.2M for this year and next). The problem is that Eli has already received a $5M roster bonus and a $500K workout bonus. All bonus must be accounted for on the cap in the year they are paid so if he was released with a June 1st designation, then his cap hit this year is $11.7M and $6.2M next. If he is traded (with Eli waiving the NTC), then the full dead cap hit is accelerated into this year's cap. $12.4M + $5.5M = $17.9M this year. With the cap ramifications, the Giants don't have the room to absorb the hit without restructuring/releasing other players. The reality is that any trade/release is wishful thinking. Eli will be the starter for 2018.

Thanks for the breakdown. It should be especially informative for those who have been saying our bad contracts don't inhibit us from making moves.

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High standards.

I think some people just want to lose. Maybe it’s s sports version of masochism.

In comment 13908816 SterlingArcher said:

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Nobody really knows. It's doubtful there will be 5 QBs taken in the first round, which I think may happen this year, and the 5th won't be who people assume it to be.

There could easily be three very highly thought of guys at the top. And we have Webb.

If I'm the Giants, I want to trade out of #2 to the Broncos in the worst way. Get their 2019 first rounder, now I have two first rounders next year, get an extra 2nd this year, and the Broncos could really stink up the field with a rookie QB and Case Keenum. And Keenum is a great guy I'm sure, but he is not an NFL QB and he is not going to replicate what he did in Minnesota in Denver.

The QB the Jets draft leads them to championship(s) and whoever the Giants draft does not.

There is at least a 50-50 chance he s going to be a guy you can win with, and that s being generous to the, "don t take a quarterback train".

Worst case scenerio, Giants go 7-9, but now have two young quarterbacks competing to be the next guy.

There are all kinds of positive and negative scenerios no matter whom is drafted.

Taking a quarterback makes as much sense as any other choice, and in my opinion if they hit, it s the highest reward pick.

In comment 13908872 FStubbs said:

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The QB the Jets draft leads them to championship(s) and whoever the Giants draft does not.

That doesn't bother me. I mean if Parcells and Belichick couldn't win the JETS a Super Bowl then I wouldn't worry about who they draft. All talent and skills are nullified once you put on their jersey.

In comment 13908487 twostepgiants said:

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And we know next year isnt a big QB year That’s why teams like the Browns, Jets, 9ers were positioning last year. 49ers ducked out early with Garoppolo. IF someone emerges a big IF, they will go very high. maybe 1. To trade up you need a team willing to do so. Plus the cost will be the kings ransom

Agreed. For anyone who follows college football and reads scouting reports, it's fairly easy to see next years class is going to be one of the weaker ones in recent draft years. Doesn't mean it won't produce a good qb, it's just not going to be a qb you take a gamble on with a top 5 pick. The headliners will be guys who were projected to be mid round picks this year and returned to school.

There is a reason why multiple teams tried to tank last year and are considering blockbuster trades this year for this class. There is at least two extremely talented qbs coming out, possibly as many as 4. That should say something about this class.

Things change constantly. It may look weak now, but players rise and fall every year. No team is tanking their season for a college player they won't even be sure about in April. Are we talking about real football or some Madden video game?

In comment 13908469 Go Terps said:

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Though I think the case can be made that we're better off moving forward with him as the starting QB in 2018 than with Eli.

Yet, it's likely he WILL factor in, at some level.

I think it's silly to think he wouldn't.