Too much for him but I doubt he's going to be the 4th option there. He's a better option in the pass game than Johnson Jr, Coleman keeps getting hurt and although Gordon is absolutely the best WR on the team, he hasn't played 16 games in 6 years.
Can't really trust him to be on the field all year until he is again.
Anyway - CLE has like 70M in cap space. They can afford this without any issue.
Landry isn't the equivalent of a "Honda" - he's a really good, tough WR who moves chains and gets open.
This is a lot of money for him, but some of you guys talk about this player like he sucks. He doesn't at all.
Landry will catch like 85 balls for them this year and be very productive. Miami has sucked with or without "culture" for the majority of the last however many years it has been since Marino left. They haven't won a playoff game in like 20 years.
But that doesn't make him worth it. And yeah he's going to catch a lot of balls...if he's being targeted 160+ times, he'd better. But there are plenty of guys that can get you 9 yards a catch at a small fraction of that ridiculous contract.
But that doesn't make him worth it. And yeah he's going to catch a lot of balls...if he's being targeted 160+ times, he'd better. But there are plenty of guys that can get you 9 yards a catch at a small fraction of that ridiculous contract.
While I agree, this is the market. Yeah this subject to the team and cap space but if it wasn’t there it would be someone else willing to pay the same.
But that doesn't make him worth it. And yeah he's going to catch a lot of balls...if he's being targeted 160+ times, he'd better. But there are plenty of guys that can get you 9 yards a catch at a small fraction of that ridiculous contract.
He averaged 12 yards a catch in 2016 when he didn't have Cutler throwing to him.
You're going to have a hard time finding fair value contracts for relatively big name players.
If you want a player who can catch 100 balls for you, this is what you pay for him. He's a super reliable option in the pass game, plays in the middle of the field and moves chains. Not every WR has to be Brandin Cooks and spend the majority of their snaps running fly routes or deep posts.
So because you can afford to pay $80,000 for a Honda, you should? Don't we have $15M in dead cap space this season because we made the same mistake?
It's worth remembering too that Miami had stated a need to change the locker room culture, and moving Landry was one of the first moves they made.
Landry is better than a "Honda". With poop as a QB he consistently put up 90+ catch years, runs great routes, goes over the middle of the field and has good hands.
Plus it's supply/demand. You pay $80k for a "Honda" when you have the $ to spend it and there are no Vets or Porches available while your other cars (Coleman and Gordon) have been unreliable.
A "90+ catch year" is not that impressive, and easily replaced Â
Being a slot guy who gets a lot of short passes, he doesn't get a ton of first downs. He finished behind 50+ players for % per catch. He just catches a lot of screens or two yard digs.
Unless you're going to be cold blooded like Belichick you pay full retail for guys on second contracts. Look at the money Pugh & Richburg got after what they put on film the past 2 years.
Being a slot guy who gets a lot of short passes, he doesn't get a ton of first downs. He finished behind 50+ players for % per catch. He just catches a lot of screens or two yard digs.
They're trying to change their offense, which has been garbage for four years with Landry on it.
It was garbage before he was there.
You do this all the time - you take overall team failures and pin it on one player.
Miami has talent evaluation issues across the board. Their offense didn't suck because of Jarvis Landry. It sucked because Jay Cutler is awful and Ryan Tannehill was being sacked more than any other QB in the sport before he got hurt.
They were a shitty team long before Jarvis Landry arrived.
0 playoff wins since 99 and just 2 appearances since 2001.
You do this all the time - you take overall team failures and pin it on one player.
No, I'm pointing out that the player did nothing to improve the situation. Yeah, the Dolphins have been shit. Yeah, there are many reasons beyond Landry for that.
But you see, I have this crazy idea that if a player is going to be paid a huge contract, he should have proven that he improved his team and is worth the contract. I know...it's crazy. What did Landry do to help the Dolphins win more games?
The burden of proof lies with Landry. He has to have shown that he deserves that contract. If I'm the Browns GM and his agent starts rationalizing about how Cutler sucks and how the Dolphins are a shit organization, I hang up the phone.
Landry was part of the reason the Dolphins were a loser on the field, and why their locker room was shit. He'll likely be part of the reason for the same in Cleveland...I imagine in three years his fans will be rationalizing about how Josh Allen or Sam Darnold in Cleveland sucks.
Losing player that catches lots of bubble screens. But he fooled Cleveland into believing he was otherwise, so good for him.
Your argument presupposes that MIA wouldn't have been any worse without him.
Beyond that - it's pretty hard for any non-QB to move the needle enough on their own in this league. Doesn't mean the player doesn't have value
DeAndre Hopkins isn't the reason HOU won 4 games. They've been a playoff team with him in the recent past. Their QB situation fucking sucked after Watson was hurt (sound familiar?) and when they lost Watt, they had very little talent on the defensive side of the ball outside of Clowney.
There are really good players all over the league on bad teams and they have nothing to do with the team being bad.
big problem with contracts like this is they inflate the Â
90 catches from one player? Is that a measuring stick?
A player's impact is not about number of catches. Its not a base hit. It's a catch and it can be used to overvalue a player which I strongly believe is the case with Landry.
CLE overpaid big time for this player.
He won't like the 60% cut in targets he sees in year 1.
I think paying any wide receiver this kind of contract is foolish...they aren't the reason you win titles no matter how good they are.
But if you're going to pay one of Hopkins or Landry, that's not a discussion. Hopkins is IMO the best WR in the league right now, and the other is a step above a JAG. Landry isn't doing anything a bunch of other guys in the league can. We could get Davis Webb to throw Sterling Shepard 160 bubble screens and he's going to catch 100 of them.
90 catches from one player? Is that a measuring stick?
A player's impact is not about number of catches. Its not a base hit. It's a catch and it can be used to overvalue a player which I strongly believe is the case with Landry.
CLE overpaid big time for this player.
He won't like the 60% cut in targets he sees in year 1.
He'll be a 4th option.
And he won't make it to year 3 of this contract.
Terrible deal by CLE.
He's absolutely not going to be the "4th option" there. He's better than Coleman (who can't even stay healthy) and he's a better pass catcher than Johnson Jr.
He will lead the team in catches this season. Book it.
which are usually not distinguished in the first report.
Spotrac breaks it down as "guaranteed at signing" and "total guarantees." Only "guaranteed at signing" is fully guaranteed, which is what most people think of when they see the word guaranteed.
Nate Solder's $35 million guaranteed was all "guaranteed at signing". In contrast, only a little more than half of Weston Richburg's 28 million guaranteed (which got the headline) was in fact guaranteed at signing. The rest of his "guarantees" are subject to options being picked up at the end of every year.
We know Landry has $47 million in guarantees. But, at this moment, we don't know how much money this contract guarantees he will in fact receive.
I think paying any wide receiver this kind of contract is foolish...they aren't the reason you win titles no matter how good they are.
But if you're going to pay one of Hopkins or Landry, that's not a discussion. Hopkins is IMO the best WR in the league right now, and the other is a step above a JAG. Landry isn't doing anything a bunch of other guys in the league can. We could get Davis Webb to throw Sterling Shepard 160 bubble screens and he's going to catch 100 of them.
Got it - so you wouldn't even pay the best WR in football (even though Hopkins isn't it)
Over the hill vets and rookie contracts only.
Better hit on those picks because your WR's are going to suck if you don't.
And can we stop with the hyperbole over the bubble screens? He does more than that. You tell me I rationalize shit - you're needing to completely over-exaggerate to prove this guy is not any good.
90 catches doesn't have to be a "measuring stick" but when you consider that only 25% of the league even had a player capable of it and that nearly every player who did is really good - I'd say it means the guy is probably pretty good.
If it was so easy to catch 90 balls in this league, every team would have a guy doing it - yet 3/4 of the league doesn't have a guy who does.
But it is very difficult to put a value on Landry. He moves the chains and will get a ton of catches but he is not a deep threat at all. Very similar to the Giants Steve Smith.
Those are his average stats the past 3 years with a crappy QB. Not elite, but not average IMO. He may not be as flashy (or good for that matter) as Jones, ODB, Brown, but he's very good and versatile. He runs all the routes, catches passes over the middle and can also return kicks.
But it is very difficult to put a value on Landry. He moves the chains and will get a ton of catches but he is not a deep threat at all. Very similar to the Giants Steve Smith.
And everyone here loved Steve Smith when he was healthy. He helped us win a Super Bowl in 2007 providing virtually zero RAC ability and probably caught 2 passes over 30 yards in his entire career.
The only guy who has an argument with Hopkins, IMO, is Brown. They're a step and a half ahead of everybody else.
And hitting on WR picks is easier now than its ever been. College football is producing them all over the place. It's a bad position to spend at, especially for a guy that produces as little as Landry.
average the past three years which include a rediculous, historical 2015 season of 136/1871/8...
Rec 102
Yrds 1,575
TD 6
Not saying Landry is even a sniff at Julio in terms of talent, but really the only stat that is different is the yards, which is attributed by Jones ability on the deep ball and Landry's lack thereof.
The only guy who has an argument with Hopkins, IMO, is Brown. They're a step and a half ahead of everybody else.
And hitting on WR picks is easier now than its ever been. College football is producing them all over the place. It's a bad position to spend at, especially for a guy that produces as little as Landry.
Easier than it's ever been...
Here are the top 10 WR's taken in the last draft.
Corey Davis
John Ross
Mike Williams
JuJu Smith-Shuster
Carlos Henderson
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel
Josh Reynolds
Cooper Kupp
Ryan Switzer
Almost every single one of those guys is garbage or did absolutely nothing this year. Kupp and Smith-Schuster were basically the only two who had any significant impact.
The other difference is the entire defense is trying to stop him. He gets extra attention in EVERY game. He tilts the field in your favor just because of that.
If you have an elite and rare player like Brown you win by getting him the ball.
You don't win by sending it to a player like Landry.
You just told me tons of targets don't lead to winning football - I provided an example that directly debunks that and you just laugh it off because the player is great. LOL.
Mike Thomas was targeted 150 times. Saints had an excellent year. Losing football, though...
And they're already both better players than Landry! Â
Flip Cooper Kupp and Jarvis Landry - Landry would be even better in LA. Kupp would be significantly worse in Miami with Jay Cutler slinging him the ball.
He can still turn things around, but he's closer to a bust than anything remotely approaching a starting WR. He catches 40% of his targets. Landry's up around 70%. So even if you threw 150 bubble screens to Coleman, you're offense would suck since 3 out of 5 would be incomplete (or picked)! At least Landry keeps the chains moving.
I have made a point to watch Dolphins games because he puts up numbers but he's not the least bit impactful from what I see. He's bang average but somehow ridiculously well paid like a superstar. I don't think he's any great shakes but I have a rough eye for WRs.
RE: I know 1 guy who is happy about it though: Odell Beckham, Jr. Â
And this is exactly the issue... Cleveland just screwed up the market and I am sure Mara and Gettleman are livid... Disregard my optimism that Giants reach agreement with Odell anytime soon...
Thomas is a matchup problem and can dominate. You have to roll coverage to help. Unlike Landry, he can get off press. He does a lot more for your team.
He also isn't catching 3 yard hooks all game while losing football games is he?
in 2017: 44.6% of his 112 catches came within three yards of the LOS, and 20.5% were at, or behind the LOS.
That impresses you? Fine.
The guy is limited. He can't go outside. They run him through traffic and move him around to throw him 3 yard passes. It didn't work for them.
Send the ball to a JAG like Landry and it leads to catches for the player and losing football.
Outside of adding Landry, I think CLE is moving in the right direction. If they get the QB right, they will start winning very soon and it won't be about Landry.
Thomas had less than 1 fewer target per game than Brown - I didn't exactly need to dip down very far to get to him.
Yes, he's a more versatile WR than Landry and does more and is better.
But the idea that Landry is going to be the 4th option in Cleveland after the contract they just gave him or that he's "JAG" is a joke. It's gross hyperbole.
I also see that you conveniently focused on 2017 when he had terrible QB play but no mention of 2016 when he was at 12 YPR (which is exactly where your man Corey Coleman is sitting right now with a much worse catch% and inability to stay healthy)
2017 was the worst YPR year of his career thus far - probably not a coincidence.
You guys are making it sound like you can just throw Roger Lewis Jr a football 150 times a season and he'll put up top 10 numbers. I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that...
"He catches 40% of his targets. Landry's up around 70%." Â
Coleman hasn't done shit and there's no way he's ahead of Landry on the depth chart. Clearly the Browns agree or they: a) wouldn't have traded for Landry, and b) wouldn't have given him this extension.
I do agree that Landry is overrated and not worth anything close to $15M per, but Coleman has been below replacement level to date assuming he can even get on the field.
Landry = Edelman
They certainly have value to a team, though not at anywhere close to $15M per.
I didn't say that. You're the one dismissing QB play as a rationale for Landry's poor 2017 and then you turned around and highlighted it as an excuse for Coleman.
All much better than anything in CLE. Its been a revolving door of garbage at the position.
Coleman's biggest hurdle has been staying healthy. That may never happen. I have no idea. But the guy is a tough matchup for NFL CBs. If he can stay on the field and sees NFL starting quality QB he can help a team.
We'll see.
But the Coleman thing has nothing to do with Landry being severely overrated.
The QB crew in CLE the past 2 years is one of the worst collections the NFL has ever seen. Ever. Terrible talent combined with no experience. Thats what they had.
Tannehill, Cutler and Moore? Just for starters, they know what they are doing. They've been in the league a while which is an enormous difference to anything CLE had.
And this is where I think you are completely wrong.
Landry is no doubt overpaid, won't argue that. But Edelman isn't shit outside of NE. He isn't fast enough, he isn't big enough, and he's been too injured.
I will concede that none of us knows what Edelman will be now, coming off that injury. But prior to that he was a huge part of two championship teams in three years...in one of those playoff games he threw a crucial touchdown pass.
The "he's nothing outside of New England" qualifier that keeps being repeated on this board about everyone that isn't Belichick and Brady is daft.
So we're not allowed to mention the difference between playing with Tom Brady your entire career and the fact that Landry has had Tannehill and a lot of trash?
Edelman misses games every year. He's made it through a full season @ WR two times in his career. Missed all of 2017.
in our own words during the 2017 playoffs you said the Patriots have the best WR corps in football.
So, Amendola leaving should tell us a lot about how right or wrong you are. Edelman, definitely better than Amendola, still benefits incredibly from playing in NE. If Edelman left NE i'm almost certain he'd be nothing more than an average slot WR.
For once I'd love you to use examples from other teams but you never do. We know why, because other teams don't have BB and Brady so the argument would suck.
with the GOAT QB and coach and the biggest mismatch in the game (Gronk) are nearly identical to Landry's stats with Ryan Tannehill. So in what way is he a better WR? Clearly his superior performance should show up somewhere...
If you want to say Edelman is/was a much better value, I'd completely agree. But don't give me garbage about how he's a 'much tougher cover' for defenses when the stats show otherwise. If he's so tough to cover, why don't his numbers reflect that?
Edlemans stats playing with Brady are similar to Landry with Cutler/Tannehill?
OK, So whats the point?
Oh....wait...one guy plays on a winning team and proven he can be an impact player in the playoffs? This player is also a much better athlete and tougher guy to cover.
Edlemans stats playing with Brady are similar to Landry with Cutler/Tannehill?
OK, So whats the point?
Oh....wait...one guy plays on a winning team and proven he can be an impact player in the playoffs? This player is also a much better athlete and tougher guy to cover.
Thanks.
Tougher guy to cover yet he catches a lower % of his targets than Landry and doesn't out perform him in any area.
Edlemans stats playing with Brady are similar to Landry with Cutler/Tannehill?
OK, So whats the point?
Oh....wait...one guy plays on a winning team and proven he can be an impact player in the playoffs? This player is also a much better athlete and tougher guy to cover.
Thanks.
If he's so much harder to cover, why isn't that reflected in his numbers? He is not making a bigger impact. He's so much harder to cover that they both average the exact same 7.08 yards/target for their careers...
You can keep calling Landry a "JAG" all you want - but please stop telling other people they need to "rationalize" their opinions when you're grossly exaggerating more than anyone to make your own point.
Limited, yes. Just a guy? Give me a fucking break.
I can give you tons of great "athletes" who couldn't do shit in the NFL. You're too concerned with measurables. That shit doesn't always translate to production and in Edleman's case, all of those athletic advantages he has over Landry have yet to translate on the field. He doesn't produce any more than Landry in any area and he has a far superior QB.
when I read "not close" im expecting the different in play between a Beckham and a Ruben Randle. When I hear Edelman is better than Landry and it "isn't close" I'm going to call bullshit on that every time.
I happen to like both players (injury not withstanding), but to suggest they aren't close is absolutely fucking laughable.
We have guys here saying hes the slow one in this debate.
Thats BS.
he's a much better athlete. And hes faster.
Who said Edelman is slow?
Who cares who the better athlete is? FACT is that their production on the field by every reasonable measure is as close as you can get, so things like "he's a much tougher cover" are just patently absurd.
And here's an article from FO that disputes your notion that Edelman can line up everywhere while Landry can only play in the slot. By their tracking Edelman was significantly worse when lined up out wide, while Landry's efficiency was actually better out wide than in the slot. Link - ( New Window )
when talking about how he'd do outside of NE, not compared to Landry. You read it how you wanted to read it. And Edelman isn't 4.5 fast anymore, he simply isn't, so stop quoting his speed from a decade ago.
the far inferious athlete that you have described Â
has put together better seasons in the NFL with bottom 5 QB play than the guy you are saying is soooo much better and faster and only gets the ole NE boost from playing with Brady.
Landry's lack of speed and size is one of the issues with the player. He's severely limited. Yes, he caught a lot of balls but there is more to it than catches. He can't beat one on one coverage and can't play outside. Edleman can.
My opinion was MIA made the right call taking the draft pick and not paying him. Instead they got a better player in Albert Wilson for much less. If MIA uses Wilson like they used Landry that will improve the team. He's a better player.
I felt any team taking on that contract would make a HUGE mistake. And now with these numbers I think its the worst contract of the year.
We'll see how it goes but I believe Landry will be a bust in CLE and will fall off the totem pole there very quickly.
Landry's lack of speed and size is one of the issues with the player. He's severely limited. Yes, he caught a lot of balls but there is more to it than catches. He can't beat one on one coverage and can't play outside. Edleman can.
FootballOutsiders' disagrees with that.
Quote:
My opinion was MIA made the right call taking the draft pick and not paying him.
I felt any team taking on that contract would make a HUGE mistake. And now with these numbers I think its the worst contract of the year.
I agree with that as I said numerous times. This deal makes him severely overpaid. He's still an above average WR and at least as good as Edelman.
RE: Landry put together better seasons in the NFL Â
Really? According to what? Number of catches on a losing team?
His career highs in yards, yards/receptions, catch %, and TDs all top Edelman's career bests in those categories. In some categories by a significant margin.
You can, but what about his pro day and his actual on field speed and production, that again, points to him being just as effective or more effective catching the ball than Edelman?
You aren't doing a very good job proving your point.
"Landry ran the 40-yard dash in 4.51 seconds – more than a tenth of a second better than his disappointing 4.65 time in the 40 at the NFL Combine last February in Indianapolis that featured various tests, agility drills and timings like Pro Day."
I don't even care at this point. He plays faster and better than the times you are quoting from 4 years ago which is 100% irrelevant now.
I'm on record here saying the guy is going to be a 4th option in CLE, see a 60% reduction in targets, and getting cut after 2 years.
i explained why I feel this way and talked about this production of 3 yard patterns(40+% of his catches) and behind the LOS catches.
IMO, Edelman (before his latest injury) was a better NFL player, could do more, tougher matchup, and makes a team better. He was also a far superior athlete.
You stated he was too slow to make plays outside of NE while defending the much slower player.
I'm on record here saying the guy is going to be a 4th option in CLE, see a 60% reduction in targets, and getting cut after 2 years.
i explained why I feel this way and talked about this production of 3 yard patterns(40+% of his catches) and behind the LOS catches.
IMO, Edelman (before his latest injury) was a better NFL player, could do more, tougher matchup, and makes a team better. He was also a far superior athlete.
You stated he was too slow to make plays outside of NE while defending the much slower player.
I'll assume you are talking to Uconn, because I never said anything about Edelman being too slow.
I'm still waiting for the stats that show he's a tougher matchup or that he can do more (FO's analysis of their 2016 stats show the opposite).
I eagerly await this season to see Landry only targeted 64 times...
Do you have a reference for your 3 yard pattern claim?
I really don't. No one does, except people trying to make an argument that supports a case they can't otherwise make.
You think GM's say "hey, we know you have a lot of catches and look faster on the field but that damn shitty 40 time from 4 years ago must mean you are slow".
Players have bad combines all the time. Happens every year and always will. Why do i need to tell you this?
I didn't say Edelman was slow. I said outside of NE he's isn't fast enough or big enough to be a big time threat. I didn't compare his speed to anyone's else's.
(the faster player) struggle outside or NE, but Landry wont?
You did say that right?
Personally I think Edelman would still be a solid slot WR, but an argument can easily be made than an player would look better with Tom Brady than without. We know what Landry can do with shitty QB play.
(the faster player) struggle outside or NE, but Landry wont?
You did say that right?
Nope, wrong again. I never said he'd struggle or anything. I simply said he wouldn't be a top WR and certainly not as good as he was/is in NE. It was a response to Terps claiming Landry "Isn't close" to the player Edelman is.
YEs Landry can catch 45% of his catches under 3 yards Â
I still haven't seen anything to show he's a faster and better overall WR. Not even his stats on a far better team with the best QB in the history of the game can make the argument.
In 2016, arguably Edelmans best season, he had 30 more targets than Landry and still had less TD's, yards, and YPC and only 4 more catches. So what exactly is this massive difference between the two players?
Will get the money the Browns just guaranteed that up to 46 mil, however he will never again see 160+ targets with the Browns. The problem with the Phins offense was 88% of the passing game was funneled thru Landry. Sure they got first downs but they could not get into the end zone sounds familiar where have we heard that before. He is not the type of player who will enjoy not being the primary guy on offense.
Ask Deion Branch, David Givens, Brandon LaFell, Brandon Lloyd, Reche Caldwell, etc how they fared when they left Brady and went to another team. (Even Welker fell off with Manning, but that may have been a combination of Manning falling off and too many shots to the head for Welker)
Not sure how to quantity it by the Brady Production Factor has to be 20%+ per player...
You found the one player who's numbers were marginally worse with Brady. You do realize that Cooks played with another HOF QB in NO and in a dome for 9+ games vs the outdoor NE weather, right? And before you come up with some bullshit to dismiss the dome factor, in 2016 Cooks averaged 18.9 y/r at home and only 12.1 y/r on the road.
I'm sure Edelman would produce comparably if he were to play with Brees or with Rodgers. I'm guessing those claiming he'd see a hit to his numbers are referring to a hypothetical situation in which Edelman played with one of the 75% of NFL starters that aren't future first ballot HOFs.
Is your point, the catches would drop 20% or at all if he got the targets with another team?
I didn't make any claims about what his numbers would be elsewhere. YOU implied that Landry only reached the yardage/TD totals because of volume and that Edelman would see similar volume elsewhere and would thus put up comparable #s (ignoring that his rate stats with a superior QB/team are comparable or worse). I then corrected the record and pointed out that we don't need to "guess" what Edelman would do with huge volume (160 tgts) since he's already seen that volume twice with Brady and the Pats.
Nice try. LaFell had two years in New England. His first year was a career best. In his second season, he got hurt and only played 11 games, and much more of part time role. So aggregating the numbers in two seasons over two seasons is misleading.
The Thrill is a big believer that athleticism matters in athletics. Sparq database and mockdraftable are tremendous resources.
Jarvis Landry is a bad athletic tester.
However, those tests became meaningless once he proved to be a useful NFL player. He's an outlier. There have been a few other "bad" athletes to succeed at skill positions. They too are outliers; football savants, spatial geniuses.
Since he's been in the league, his teams has asked him to run short routes and create after the catch. He has been exceptional in that role. Look how he stacks up vs Larry Fitzgerald
Now, are exclusive slot players worth $15M/season? Thrill says no -- it's not only a replenishable position, but also an opportunity for creative coaches to find mismatches for top-tier WR talent. Thrill posits that all recent per-play efficiency data indicates...
- passing (always) > running (the very worst passing O's are more effective than the best rushing O's)
- throw to RBs on early downs (it's stealing)
- aggressively deploy best WR/TE in slot (better matchups/more space/easier completions)
...thus, although Jarvis Landry is a very good player and among the best at what he does, the Browns might have been better off spending a fraction of that $75M on a stable slot player and saving slot targets for Josh Gordon, David Njoku, and Duke Johnson ...and perhaps even Saquon.
Recap: Agree Landry is overpaid; Disagree that he's not a useful player bc his flunked athletic tests and has a low ypc
Michael Lombardi
Michael Lombardi
@mlombardiNFL
·
4h
I cannot wait to see the real numbers of the Landry contract--that's a huge deal for a player that has only 24 +25 yard plays in his NFL career. Paying for the volume of catches over yards is staggering
Can't really trust him to be on the field all year until he is again.
Anyway - CLE has like 70M in cap space. They can afford this without any issue.
It's worth remembering too that Miami had stated a need to change the locker room culture, and moving Landry was one of the first moves they made.
Link - ( New Window )
This is a lot of money for him, but some of you guys talk about this player like he sucks. He doesn't at all.
Landry will catch like 85 balls for them this year and be very productive. Miami has sucked with or without "culture" for the majority of the last however many years it has been since Marino left. They haven't won a playoff game in like 20 years.
This won't hamper them at all.
4th option? Still hanging on dearly to your original Corey Coleman evaluation?
But that doesn't make him worth it. And yeah he's going to catch a lot of balls...if he's being targeted 160+ times, he'd better. But there are plenty of guys that can get you 9 yards a catch at a small fraction of that ridiculous contract.
But that doesn't make him worth it. And yeah he's going to catch a lot of balls...if he's being targeted 160+ times, he'd better. But there are plenty of guys that can get you 9 yards a catch at a small fraction of that ridiculous contract.
While I agree, this is the market. Yeah this subject to the team and cap space but if it wasn’t there it would be someone else willing to pay the same.
But that doesn't make him worth it. And yeah he's going to catch a lot of balls...if he's being targeted 160+ times, he'd better. But there are plenty of guys that can get you 9 yards a catch at a small fraction of that ridiculous contract.
He averaged 12 yards a catch in 2016 when he didn't have Cutler throwing to him.
You're going to have a hard time finding fair value contracts for relatively big name players.
If you want a player who can catch 100 balls for you, this is what you pay for him. He's a super reliable option in the pass game, plays in the middle of the field and moves chains. Not every WR has to be Brandin Cooks and spend the majority of their snaps running fly routes or deep posts.
Landry is a good player, not $15mil a year good. They could have added way more to their team for that money.
So let them pay that. I'm not disputing that there are incompetent GMs in the NFL. This contract is proof that they're definitely around.
It's worth remembering too that Miami had stated a need to change the locker room culture, and moving Landry was one of the first moves they made.
Landry is better than a "Honda". With poop as a QB he consistently put up 90+ catch years, runs great routes, goes over the middle of the field and has good hands.
Plus it's supply/demand. You pay $80k for a "Honda" when you have the $ to spend it and there are no Vets or Porches available while your other cars (Coleman and Gordon) have been unreliable.
For all that money.
For all that money.
Again - Jay Cutler is horrible.
He was top 20 the year before.
1 Jarvis Landry
2 Larry Fitzgerald,
3 Michael Thomas
4 Keenan Allen,
5 Antonio Brown,
6 DeAndre Hopkins
7 Golden Tate
8 Adam Thielen
I'm sure Miami will be able to just pull a WR like that out of their asses to replace Landry.
Blame Cutler all you want, the truth is Landry hasn't had a year in his career even remotely worth this contract.
It was garbage before he was there.
You do this all the time - you take overall team failures and pin it on one player.
Miami has talent evaluation issues across the board. Their offense didn't suck because of Jarvis Landry. It sucked because Jay Cutler is awful and Ryan Tannehill was being sacked more than any other QB in the sport before he got hurt.
They were a shitty team long before Jarvis Landry arrived.
0 playoff wins since 99 and just 2 appearances since 2001.
What a model franchise....
No, I'm pointing out that the player did nothing to improve the situation. Yeah, the Dolphins have been shit. Yeah, there are many reasons beyond Landry for that.
But you see, I have this crazy idea that if a player is going to be paid a huge contract, he should have proven that he improved his team and is worth the contract. I know...it's crazy. What did Landry do to help the Dolphins win more games?
The burden of proof lies with Landry. He has to have shown that he deserves that contract. If I'm the Browns GM and his agent starts rationalizing about how Cutler sucks and how the Dolphins are a shit organization, I hang up the phone.
Landry was part of the reason the Dolphins were a loser on the field, and why their locker room was shit. He'll likely be part of the reason for the same in Cleveland...I imagine in three years his fans will be rationalizing about how Josh Allen or Sam Darnold in Cleveland sucks.
Losing player that catches lots of bubble screens. But he fooled Cleveland into believing he was otherwise, so good for him.
He didn't help them win the 10 games they won that year?
They lost their QB and had to start Matt Moore in the playoffs so PIT ran them over.
Beyond that - it's pretty hard for any non-QB to move the needle enough on their own in this league. Doesn't mean the player doesn't have value
DeAndre Hopkins isn't the reason HOU won 4 games. They've been a playoff team with him in the recent past. Their QB situation fucking sucked after Watson was hurt (sound familiar?) and when they lost Watt, they had very little talent on the defensive side of the ball outside of Clowney.
There are really good players all over the league on bad teams and they have nothing to do with the team being bad.
Landry will do more of the same in Cleveland that he did in Miami, just at enormous cost.
Pretty easy to do with Tom Brady under center.
None of those guys would be anywhere near as effective in Cleveland or Miami.
Wes Welker's production nearly doubled when he left Miami for NE.
Additionally, almost every single one of those guys was hurt last year.
Landry will do more of the same in Cleveland that he did in Miami, just at enormous cost.
Great, so you're strengthening my point by crediting Hopkins as an excellent WR.
How did he help make the Texans better last year? They won 4 fucking games.
A player's impact is not about number of catches. Its not a base hit. It's a catch and it can be used to overvalue a player which I strongly believe is the case with Landry.
CLE overpaid big time for this player.
He won't like the 60% cut in targets he sees in year 1.
He'll be a 4th option.
And he won't make it to year 3 of this contract.
Terrible deal by CLE.
But if you're going to pay one of Hopkins or Landry, that's not a discussion. Hopkins is IMO the best WR in the league right now, and the other is a step above a JAG. Landry isn't doing anything a bunch of other guys in the league can. We could get Davis Webb to throw Sterling Shepard 160 bubble screens and he's going to catch 100 of them.
But he isn't close to a top 20 player at his position.
Severely overrated.
A player's impact is not about number of catches. Its not a base hit. It's a catch and it can be used to overvalue a player which I strongly believe is the case with Landry.
CLE overpaid big time for this player.
He won't like the 60% cut in targets he sees in year 1.
He'll be a 4th option.
And he won't make it to year 3 of this contract.
Terrible deal by CLE.
He's absolutely not going to be the "4th option" there. He's better than Coleman (who can't even stay healthy) and he's a better pass catcher than Johnson Jr.
He will lead the team in catches this season. Book it.
4th options don't manage that or even come close.
He won't be gone after 2 years either.
Spotrac breaks it down as "guaranteed at signing" and "total guarantees." Only "guaranteed at signing" is fully guaranteed, which is what most people think of when they see the word guaranteed.
Nate Solder's $35 million guaranteed was all "guaranteed at signing". In contrast, only a little more than half of Weston Richburg's 28 million guaranteed (which got the headline) was in fact guaranteed at signing. The rest of his "guarantees" are subject to options being picked up at the end of every year.
We know Landry has $47 million in guarantees. But, at this moment, we don't know how much money this contract guarantees he will in fact receive.
But if you're going to pay one of Hopkins or Landry, that's not a discussion. Hopkins is IMO the best WR in the league right now, and the other is a step above a JAG. Landry isn't doing anything a bunch of other guys in the league can. We could get Davis Webb to throw Sterling Shepard 160 bubble screens and he's going to catch 100 of them.
Got it - so you wouldn't even pay the best WR in football (even though Hopkins isn't it)
Over the hill vets and rookie contracts only.
Better hit on those picks because your WR's are going to suck if you don't.
And can we stop with the hyperbole over the bubble screens? He does more than that. You tell me I rationalize shit - you're needing to completely over-exaggerate to prove this guy is not any good.
If it was so easy to catch 90 balls in this league, every team would have a guy doing it - yet 3/4 of the league doesn't have a guy who does.
Rec 105
Yrds 1,100
TD 6
Those are his average stats the past 3 years with a crappy QB. Not elite, but not average IMO. He may not be as flashy (or good for that matter) as Jones, ODB, Brown, but he's very good and versatile. He runs all the routes, catches passes over the middle and can also return kicks.
And everyone here loved Steve Smith when he was healthy. He helped us win a Super Bowl in 2007 providing virtually zero RAC ability and probably caught 2 passes over 30 yards in his entire career.
Come on. The league is full of guys capable of it. They just don't see the targets because that doesn't lead to winning football.
Coleman is better. Gordon is better. They'll draft Barkley. The TE is a bigger threat.
He'll struggle to even grab that 4th option title!
And hitting on WR picks is easier now than its ever been. College football is producing them all over the place. It's a bad position to spend at, especially for a guy that produces as little as Landry.
Come on. The league is full of guys capable of it. They just don't see the targets because that doesn't lead to winning football.
Right, the Steelers didn't just win 13 games throwing the ball to Brown 163 times.
And how much did we miss him? Zero.
Rec 102
Yrds 1,575
TD 6
Not saying Landry is even a sniff at Julio in terms of talent, but really the only stat that is different is the yards, which is attributed by Jones ability on the deep ball and Landry's lack thereof.
Landry doesn't
It is night and day between the players.
If you have an elite and rare player like Brown you win by getting him the ball.
You don't win by sending it to a player like Landry.
And hitting on WR picks is easier now than its ever been. College football is producing them all over the place. It's a bad position to spend at, especially for a guy that produces as little as Landry.
Easier than it's ever been...
Here are the top 10 WR's taken in the last draft.
Corey Davis
John Ross
Mike Williams
JuJu Smith-Shuster
Carlos Henderson
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel
Josh Reynolds
Cooper Kupp
Ryan Switzer
Almost every single one of those guys is garbage or did absolutely nothing this year. Kupp and Smith-Schuster were basically the only two who had any significant impact.
Landry doesn't.
Its not close despite your number of catches
Landry doesn't
It is night and day between the players.
If you have an elite and rare player like Brown you win by getting him the ball.
You don't win by sending it to a player like Landry.
You just told me tons of targets don't lead to winning football - I provided an example that directly debunks that and you just laugh it off because the player is great. LOL.
Mike Thomas was targeted 150 times. Saints had an excellent year. Losing football, though...
Cooper Kupp is better than Jarvis Landry?
Or did he have a capable QB, MVP caliber RB taking all the attention off of him and much better team around him?
He is absolutely not better than Landry. Neither is Smith-Schuster.
And how much did we miss him? Zero.
Steve Smith was never the same after the injury.
We didn't miss him because we lucked into Cruz.
Quote:
I was horrified when he went to Philly.
And how much did we miss him? Zero.
Steve Smith was never the same after the injury.
We didn't miss him because we lucked into Cruz.
This.
We didn't miss Smith because Cruz was better.
Brandon Stokley was the guy we were trying to shoehorn into Smith's spot before Cruz broke out.
You think we still wouldn't have missed Smith without Cruz?
Easily.
And this is exactly the issue... Cleveland just screwed up the market and I am sure Mara and Gettleman are livid... Disregard my optimism that Giants reach agreement with Odell anytime soon...
OK.
Again what is the difference?
Thomas is a matchup problem and can dominate. You have to roll coverage to help. Unlike Landry, he can get off press. He does a lot more for your team.
He also isn't catching 3 yard hooks all game while losing football games is he?
in 2017: 44.6% of his 112 catches came within three yards of the LOS, and 20.5% were at, or behind the LOS.
That impresses you? Fine.
The guy is limited. He can't go outside. They run him through traffic and move him around to throw him 3 yard passes. It didn't work for them.
Send the ball to a JAG like Landry and it leads to catches for the player and losing football.
Outside of adding Landry, I think CLE is moving in the right direction. If they get the QB right, they will start winning very soon and it won't be about Landry.
You will see a severe drop in his "production".
Yes, he's a more versatile WR than Landry and does more and is better.
But the idea that Landry is going to be the 4th option in Cleveland after the contract they just gave him or that he's "JAG" is a joke. It's gross hyperbole.
I also see that you conveniently focused on 2017 when he had terrible QB play but no mention of 2016 when he was at 12 YPR (which is exactly where your man Corey Coleman is sitting right now with a much worse catch% and inability to stay healthy)
2017 was the worst YPR year of his career thus far - probably not a coincidence.
You guys are making it sound like you can just throw Roger Lewis Jr a football 150 times a season and he'll put up top 10 numbers. I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that...
Coleman, when healthy, is a guy who can get wide open on an NFL field. Injuries and QB play have certainly been an issue.
He may bust. We'll see.
My bet is he won't and if he can stay on the field will do more for CLE than Landry.
Coleman hasn't done shit and there's no way he's ahead of Landry on the depth chart. Clearly the Browns agree or they: a) wouldn't have traded for Landry, and b) wouldn't have given him this extension.
I do agree that Landry is overrated and not worth anything close to $15M per, but Coleman has been below replacement level to date assuming he can even get on the field.
Landry = Edelman
They certainly have value to a team, though not at anywhere close to $15M per.
Thomas is on a whole different level. It's not close and a useless comparison.
Uf they want to win games, the gameplan in CLE will not focus on him. If they get Barkley, Landry drops even further on the list.
I'll stick with Landry as the 4th option and cut before year 3.
You win.
You win.
I didn't say that. You're the one dismissing QB play as a rationale for Landry's poor 2017 and then you turned around and highlighted it as an excuse for Coleman.
Coleman's biggest hurdle has been staying healthy. That may never happen. I have no idea. But the guy is a tough matchup for NFL CBs. If he can stay on the field and sees NFL starting quality QB he can help a team.
We'll see.
But the Coleman thing has nothing to do with Landry being severely overrated.
Tannehill, Cutler and Moore? Just for starters, they know what they are doing. They've been in the league a while which is an enormous difference to anything CLE had.
And this is where I think you are completely wrong.
Landry is no doubt overpaid, won't argue that. But Edelman isn't shit outside of NE. He isn't fast enough, he isn't big enough, and he's been too injured.
Your Pats blinders are absolutely hysterical.
Wrong.
2016:
Landry - 94/1136/4 - 12.1 YPR, 71.8 catch%
Edelman - 98/1106/3 - 11.3 YPR, 61.6 catch%
If we're talking about value relative to their contracts, I agree completely. Ignoring the contracts though, Landry > Edelman.
Landry has a career 10.1 YPR, Edelman is at 10.7.
Not close? LOL.
That was my point from the start.
It's too much money for Landry but when people start calling him a "JAG" or say that he doesn't do anything but catch bubble screens it gets silly.
He does more than that.
Landry: 6.3 rec, 63.1 yds, 0.3 TDs
How is Edelman better?
Landry: 6.3 rec, 63.1 yds, 0.3 TDs
How is Edelman better?
He's not - he just plays for the Patriots.
Landry would be better if they traded places.
He's another in a long list of guys who can do a lot more than Landry.
I will concede that none of us knows what Edelman will be now, coming off that injury. But prior to that he was a huge part of two championship teams in three years...in one of those playoff games he threw a crucial touchdown pass.
The "he's nothing outside of New England" qualifier that keeps being repeated on this board about everyone that isn't Belichick and Brady is daft.
He's another in a long list of guys who can do a lot more than Landry.
Again, the Patriots. Lets take a poll on how well Amendola does this year.
Take your pick and he runs past Landry
Edelman misses games every year. He's made it through a full season @ WR two times in his career. Missed all of 2017.
Landry has yet to miss a game.
Can't be better if you don't play.
But you're wrong if you think Landry has anything on him.
Just athletically, Edleman is far superior.
So, Amendola leaving should tell us a lot about how right or wrong you are. Edelman, definitely better than Amendola, still benefits incredibly from playing in NE. If Edelman left NE i'm almost certain he'd be nothing more than an average slot WR.
For once I'd love you to use examples from other teams but you never do. We know why, because other teams don't have BB and Brady so the argument would suck.
If you want to say Edelman is/was a much better value, I'd completely agree. But don't give me garbage about how he's a 'much tougher cover' for defenses when the stats show otherwise. If he's so tough to cover, why don't his numbers reflect that?
Terps seems to think it's not worth mentioning.
But you're wrong if you think Landry has anything on him.
Just athletically, Edleman is far superior.
Ohh yeah, just a little boost. That's all.
OK, So whats the point?
Oh....wait...one guy plays on a winning team and proven he can be an impact player in the playoffs? This player is also a much better athlete and tougher guy to cover.
Thanks.
But you're wrong if you think Landry has anything on him.
Just athletically, Edleman is far superior.
Who cares if he's better athletically if that doesn't translate to better production? (hint: it doesn't)
Tim Carter could smoke both of them.
But when you mention that a player benefits majorly from playing there - it's suddenly "daft"
OK, So whats the point?
Oh....wait...one guy plays on a winning team and proven he can be an impact player in the playoffs? This player is also a much better athlete and tougher guy to cover.
Thanks.
Tougher guy to cover yet he catches a lower % of his targets than Landry and doesn't out perform him in any area.
Build whatever straw man you want, it won't justify paying a JAG like Landry this stupid contract.
But there is nothing Landry does that is better than Edelman. Nothing.
The catch stats from either side don't mean shit to show it.
There is nothing Landry does better. Edleman can play outside. Landry can't. In the slot? Landry isn't better.
OK, So whats the point?
Oh....wait...one guy plays on a winning team and proven he can be an impact player in the playoffs? This player is also a much better athlete and tougher guy to cover.
Thanks.
If he's so much harder to cover, why isn't that reflected in his numbers? He is not making a bigger impact. He's so much harder to cover that they both average the exact same 7.08 yards/target for their careers...
Limited, yes. Just a guy? Give me a fucking break.
I happen to like both players (injury not withstanding), but to suggest they aren't close is absolutely fucking laughable.
We have guys here saying hes the slow one in this debate.
Thats BS.
he's a much better athlete. And hes faster.
Edleman and Landry are similar players. But Edleman is better. Can do more.
And you mentioned the lack of speed which is not true in his case. Landry is the much slower player.
We have guys here saying hes the slow one in this debate.
Thats BS.
he's a much better athlete. And hes faster.
Who said Edelman is slow?
Who cares who the better athlete is? FACT is that their production on the field by every reasonable measure is as close as you can get, so things like "he's a much tougher cover" are just patently absurd.
When did Julian Edelman run like Beckham and Landry like Ramses Barden?
It's so easy!
And here's an article from FO that disputes your notion that Edelman can line up everywhere while Landry can only play in the slot. By their tracking Edelman was significantly worse when lined up out wide, while Landry's efficiency was actually better out wide than in the slot.
Link - ( New Window )
But Landry ran a 4.77.
Edleman is an exceptional athlete even by NFL WR standards. He ran the 3 cone almost one full second faster than Landry.
Read that and let it sink in.
Edelman has missed 41 games in his 8 year career.
Landry has missed 0 games in 4 years.
Being a better athlete doesn't mean shit if you aren't on the field.
Tim Carter was a better athlete than Edelman but he still sucked.
Landry's lack of speed and size is one of the issues with the player. He's severely limited. Yes, he caught a lot of balls but there is more to it than catches. He can't beat one on one coverage and can't play outside. Edleman can.
My opinion was MIA made the right call taking the draft pick and not paying him. Instead they got a better player in Albert Wilson for much less. If MIA uses Wilson like they used Landry that will improve the team. He's a better player.
I felt any team taking on that contract would make a HUGE mistake. And now with these numbers I think its the worst contract of the year.
We'll see how it goes but I believe Landry will be a bust in CLE and will fall off the totem pole there very quickly.
Landry's lack of speed and size is one of the issues with the player. He's severely limited. Yes, he caught a lot of balls but there is more to it than catches. He can't beat one on one coverage and can't play outside. Edleman can.
FootballOutsiders' disagrees with that.
My opinion was MIA made the right call taking the draft pick and not paying him.
I felt any team taking on that contract would make a HUGE mistake. And now with these numbers I think its the worst contract of the year.
I agree with that as I said numerous times. This deal makes him severely overpaid. He's still an above average WR and at least as good as Edelman.
His career highs in yards, yards/receptions, catch %, and TDs all top Edelman's career bests in those categories. In some categories by a significant margin.
Once again they are wrong.
Quote:
FootballOutsiders' disagrees with that.
Once again they are wrong.
Can you show anything (outside of combine #s from 10 years ago) that agrees with your opinion? FO at least uses stats to form their arguments.
You realize I can just as easily post again how Edelman played in NE and actually had the opportunity to play games when they matter, right?
Jarvis Landry had nothing to do with the Miami Dolphins being a bad football team. He did his job there and he did it very well.
Does that help?
Does that help?
You can, but what about his pro day and his actual on field speed and production, that again, points to him being just as effective or more effective catching the ball than Edelman?
You aren't doing a very good job proving your point.
I don't even care at this point. He plays faster and better than the times you are quoting from 4 years ago which is 100% irrelevant now.
Does that help?
I was talking about Edelman's combine #s, but if you want to be obtuse, have at it.
You still haven't shown any on-field data that supports your claim of Edelman being a "much tougher cover".
i explained why I feel this way and talked about this production of 3 yard patterns(40+% of his catches) and behind the LOS catches.
IMO, Edelman (before his latest injury) was a better NFL player, could do more, tougher matchup, and makes a team better. He was also a far superior athlete.
You stated he was too slow to make plays outside of NE while defending the much slower player.
There were plenty with him at 4.6+ including NFL Draftscout which tries to get the best numbers on the proday.
i explained why I feel this way and talked about this production of 3 yard patterns(40+% of his catches) and behind the LOS catches.
IMO, Edelman (before his latest injury) was a better NFL player, could do more, tougher matchup, and makes a team better. He was also a far superior athlete.
You stated he was too slow to make plays outside of NE while defending the much slower player.
I'll assume you are talking to Uconn, because I never said anything about Edelman being too slow.
I'm still waiting for the stats that show he's a tougher matchup or that he can do more (FO's analysis of their 2016 stats show the opposite).
I eagerly await this season to see Landry only targeted 64 times...
Do you have a reference for your 3 yard pattern claim?
Coleman is better. Gordon is better. They'll draft Barkley. The TE is a bigger threat.
He'll struggle to even grab that 4th option title!
Coleman sucks. Another overrated speed guy who’s hurt all the time and runs shitty routes.
You think GM's say "hey, we know you have a lot of catches and look faster on the field but that damn shitty 40 time from 4 years ago must mean you are slow".
Players have bad combines all the time. Happens every year and always will. Why do i need to tell you this?
You did say that right?
Yards/target? Nope
Touchdowns/game? They both suck, but Landry scores 50% more often (on a per game basis)
First Downs/Target? Edge Landry (.39 vs .37)
First Downs/Game? Big edge Landry (3.5 vs 2.3)
So how is Edelman using this superior athleticism to destroy defenses?
You did say that right?
Personally I think Edelman would still be a solid slot WR, but an argument can easily be made than an player would look better with Tom Brady than without. We know what Landry can do with shitty QB play.
You did say that right?
Nope, wrong again. I never said he'd struggle or anything. I simply said he wouldn't be a top WR and certainly not as good as he was/is in NE. It was a response to Terps claiming Landry "Isn't close" to the player Edelman is.
And guess what? The league is full of guys who do the same with that type of usage.
I think we've taken this far enough.
We'll see how it plays out.
I have nothing against the guy other than being an overrated player who can help you in a PPR fantasy league.
I do think he'll bust in CLE.
And I do think my guy Albert Wilson will blow up in MIA at less than half the cost of Landry. And MIA picked up a draft pick too.
MIA and Landry's bank account are the winners here.
CLE will be the big loser.
In 2016, arguably Edelmans best season, he had 30 more targets than Landry and still had less TD's, yards, and YPC and only 4 more catches. So what exactly is this massive difference between the two players?
Not sure how to quantity it by the Brady Production Factor has to be 20%+ per player...
Playing with him does not mean your catches/yards/TDs jumps 20% or at all.
Cooks had better numbers with the Saints.
If Edleman went to MIA in Landry's role (or anywhere he was the main focus with 160 targets) you think he would see a 20% drop?
Quit while you're behind.
Its a lock his numbers would drop if those targets came with another team?
Thats BS.
Cooks had 117 targets his last year in NO.
114 in NE.
He had better numbers in NO.
Is your point, the catches would drop 20% or at all if he got the targets with another team?
I'm sure Edelman would produce comparably if he were to play with Brees or with Rodgers. I'm guessing those claiming he'd see a hit to his numbers are referring to a hypothetical situation in which Edelman played with one of the 75% of NFL starters that aren't future first ballot HOFs.
Is your point, the catches would drop 20% or at all if he got the targets with another team?
I didn't make any claims about what his numbers would be elsewhere. YOU implied that Landry only reached the yardage/TD totals because of volume and that Edelman would see similar volume elsewhere and would thus put up comparable #s (ignoring that his rate stats with a superior QB/team are comparable or worse). I then corrected the record and pointed out that we don't need to "guess" what Edelman would do with huge volume (160 tgts) since he's already seen that volume twice with Brady and the Pats.
No, he was going to get more than 15 mil per anyways.
2 seasons in NE, then 2 years of ball in 16 and 17 after leaving NE. Played with those HOF QBs in CIN.
NE: 193 targets - 111 catches - 1468 Yards - 7 TDs
CIN: 196 targets - 116 catches - 1410 Yards - 9 TDs
No drop. Same production with Dalton and Brady.
2 seasons in NE, then 2 years of ball in 16 and 17 after leaving NE. Played with those HOF QBs in CIN.
NE: 193 targets - 111 catches - 1468 Yards - 7 TDs
CIN: 196 targets - 116 catches - 1410 Yards - 9 TDs
No drop. Same production with Dalton and Brady.
Nice try. LaFell had two years in New England. His first year was a career best. In his second season, he got hurt and only played 11 games, and much more of part time role. So aggregating the numbers in two seasons over two seasons is misleading.
How about Brandon Lloyd?
2 seasons before NE were better than the 1 year in NE.
119 targets 74 catches 953 yards 12.9 YPC 7 TDs
Last year in CIN:
107 targets 64 catches 862 yards 13.5 YPC 6 TDs
That looks like the same player to me.
Does that help?
The Thrill is a big believer that athleticism matters in athletics. Sparq database and mockdraftable are tremendous resources.
Jarvis Landry is a bad athletic tester.
However, those tests became meaningless once he proved to be a useful NFL player. He's an outlier. There have been a few other "bad" athletes to succeed at skill positions. They too are outliers; football savants, spatial geniuses.
Since he's been in the league, his teams has asked him to run short routes and create after the catch. He has been exceptional in that role. Look how he stacks up vs Larry Fitzgerald
https://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/status/984460835555807232
Now, are exclusive slot players worth $15M/season? Thrill says no -- it's not only a replenishable position, but also an opportunity for creative coaches to find mismatches for top-tier WR talent. Thrill posits that all recent per-play efficiency data indicates...
- passing (always) > running (the very worst passing O's are more effective than the best rushing O's)
- throw to RBs on early downs (it's stealing)
- aggressively deploy best WR/TE in slot (better matchups/more space/easier completions)
...thus, although Jarvis Landry is a very good player and among the best at what he does, the Browns might have been better off spending a fraction of that $75M on a stable slot player and saving slot targets for Josh Gordon, David Njoku, and Duke Johnson ...and perhaps even Saquon.
Recap: Agree Landry is overpaid; Disagree that he's not a useful player bc his flunked athletic tests and has a low ypc
Quote:
Is the price tag for OBJ's contract just went up.
No, he was going to get more than 15 mil per anyways.
Obviously. And, if a good Landry is worth 15 per year, is an outstanding OBJ worth 20? 21?
Michael Lombardi
@mlombardiNFL
·
4h
I cannot wait to see the real numbers of the Landry contract--that's a huge deal for a player that has only 24 +25 yard plays in his NFL career. Paying for the volume of catches over yards is staggering