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Only 2 QBs drafted in Top 10 in last 25 years were Super

kinard : 4/14/2018 11:33 am
Nice article by Serby - Only 2 QBs drafted with a Top 10 pick in the last 25 years have won a Super Bowl. Only Peyton and Eli

Hard to believe. Obviously a lot of QBs have been picked with a Top 10 pick during that time and you would have thought that someone other than the Manning brothers had climbed to the top of the mountain.

You kind of always have visions of multiple Super Bowls when you use a premium pick on a QB but in fact it has almost never happened over last couple of decades.

Sometimes we forget how lucky we were to strike it rich in 2004 (and in 1979 too). According to the numbers. championships don't follow the Top 10 picked QBs around as often as you think.
Link - ( New Window )
Darnold etc should change their last name  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 4/14/2018 11:35 am : link
to Manning
What about Rothlesberger ?  
Archer : 4/14/2018 11:37 am : link
That cannot be right
Rothlesberger was drafted in thd top 10
Wentz  
Archer : 4/14/2018 11:39 am : link
Also saying that Wentz did not win is like saying Simms did not win his second Super Bowl
RE: What about Rothlesberger ?  
kinard : 4/14/2018 11:44 am : link
In comment 13913971 Archer said:
Quote:
That cannot be right
Rothlesberger was drafted in thd top 10


I thought so too but Big Ben was actually the 11th pick in 2004
Roethlisberger  
allstarjim : 4/14/2018 11:45 am : link
was picked at number 11 overall.
It is incorrect however,  
allstarjim : 4/14/2018 11:48 am : link
Trent Dilfer was the #6 overall pick in the '94 draft. That is 25 years ago.
RE: It is incorrect however,  
kinard : 4/14/2018 11:54 am : link
In comment 13913978 allstarjim said:
Quote:
Trent Dilfer was the #6 overall pick in the '94 draft. That is 25 years ago.


Good one Allstar.

Maybe list can be amended to say "Top 10 picked QBs who won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him (or who traded for him on draft day)
most successful QBs drafted in 6th round!!!  
George from PA : 4/14/2018 11:55 am : link
I should write articles
Kinard...  
M.S. : 4/14/2018 12:00 pm : link

...interesting, but the lead premise is statistically misleading.

Bottom line: think about the sheer number of QBs drafted OUTSIDE the Top 10 (in last 25 years), versus a much smaller number for those drafted within the Top 10.

That alone makes the odds tilted toward QB Super Bowl winners that were drafted outside the Top 10!
RE: Kinard...  
allstarjim : 4/14/2018 12:06 pm : link
In comment 13913989 M.S. said:
Quote:

...interesting, but the lead premise is statistically misleading.

Bottom line: think about the sheer number of QBs drafted OUTSIDE the Top 10 (in last 25 years), versus a much smaller number for those drafted within the Top 10.

That alone makes the odds tilted toward QB Super Bowl winners that were drafted outside the Top 10!


Yes, it is very limiting criteria. Plus, there are about 5 or 6 years of the last 25 drafts in which the first QB chosen was picked outside of the top 10. It's more of an interesting detail/fact rather than useful information.

If you are curious as to who the QBs taken in the top 10 of the last 25 years are, here you go:


Rivers, Eli, Peyton, Bledsoe*, Mirer, Shuler, Dilfer, McNair*, Kerry Collins*, Ryan Leaf, McNabb*,
Akili Smith, Couch, Vick, David Carr, Harrington, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Alex Smith*, Vince Young, Leinart,
Jamarcus Russell, Matt Ryan*, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton*, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert,
Luck, Bob Griffin, Tannehill, Bortles, Winston, Mariota, Goff, Wentz, Trubisky, Mahomes

* - led team to a Super Bowl in a losing effort.
While I'm not necessarily a proponent of drafting a qb,  
Ira : 4/14/2018 12:07 pm : link
I think 3 of the qb's in this draft will be top players - namely Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield. Whether they make it to a Super Bowl and even win one, has a lot to do with who else is on that team, but these are very good prospects worthy of the second pick in the draft.
It's a stupid stat.  
Dodge : 4/14/2018 12:25 pm : link
It really doesn't tell you anything. What you should be looking at is the relationship between QBs in the top 10 and their winning percentage vs. all the other QBs.
Using the Super Bowl  
Sy'56 : 4/14/2018 12:51 pm : link
as a defining stat for a QB isn't right. There are too many variables. I look past all of that
You have to be stupid,  
Doomster : 4/14/2018 12:55 pm : link
to think it's a stupid stat....

It's an eye opener, over a 25 year span.....
I posted the same thing a while back  
Sarcastic Sam : 4/14/2018 2:16 pm : link
and was ridiculed as being fat, stupid and ugly.

After I hung up on my wife, I saw a bunch of negative posts bashing the premise of my thread.

No, it's not a perfect, maybe not even a good comparison. But it's a fair rebuttal to those that say you HAVE to draft a QB at the #2 spot.

If you can get by with an Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or even a Joe Flacco, maybe you're better off compared to Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Jamarcus Nomuscle?
I agree with Ira.  
Dave on the UWS : 4/14/2018 5:02 pm : link
Will Gettleman?
If you add Roethlisberger (11), those 3 QBs won over 1/3 of the SBs  
TD : 4/14/2018 7:20 pm : link
Think about that - over a third of the championships in the past 25 years won by QBs picked in the top 11.
RE: Using the Super Bowl  
markky : 4/14/2018 7:46 pm : link
In comment 13914027 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
as a defining stat for a QB isn't right. There are too many variables. I look past all of that


agreed.

if you change it to top 11 and making the conference championship game, the stats change dramatically.

if you subtract the conference championship games by one outlier (the 6th rounder) then the stats are pretty telling.

but who cares we all know that QB is the most important single position in team sports, period.
Pretty pointless metric/stat  
UConn4523 : 4/14/2018 7:50 pm : link
which obviously ignores every other move made by the teams that drafted QBs in the top 10.
It may be a bad stat  
Ron from Ninerland : 4/14/2018 9:28 pm : link
But the sheer number of outright busts on that list or guys who were viable QB's but just not very good is frightening.
RE: It may be a bad stat  
the mike : 4/14/2018 9:36 pm : link
In comment 13914406 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
But the sheer number of outright busts on that list or guys who were viable QB's but just not very good is frightening.


This is the point. Thank you.
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