NFT: Mets Minors 6/7/2018-Laffey with a laugher

has retired (not kidding).

In comment 13985242 DanMetroMan said:

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has retired (not kidding).

LOL, Sandy sure knows how to pick them.

going 4-for-4 with four RBIs.

That would send anyone into retirement.

it's amazing to me that he can do one of these for every team.

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New York Mets The Mets took the first prep player of the 2018 draft in high-ceiling Wisconsin outfielder Jarred Kelenic (1), who clearly established himself as the best high school position player in the class and had been in consideration at pick No. 1. Kelenic has All-Star center-fielder upside with power, speed and a plus-plus arm, and his swing is certainly geared toward driving the ball to all fields. One knock on Kelenic is that he'll turn 19 next month -- he graduated from high school in December -- and another is that the competition he faced in Wisconsin, even playing on a travel team, was not very good. Texas right-hander Simeon Woods-Richardson (2) is a great athlete and competitor, up to 94 from a high slot with a breaking ball that's above-average when he lands it. There's some effort to his delivery, and he's probably maxed out physically at 6-foot-3, 210 pounds. He showed better velocity last summer in shorter bursts. Carlos Cortes (3) was a top-100 prospect out of high school, and I still love his swing, but he hit just .260/.379/.507 this year, with a low BABIP derived from weak contact. He's also limited to left field. His teammate, right-hander Adam Hill (4), struggled to throw strikes most of the year, with 50 in 79 innings (including seven walks in three-plus innings when I saw him against Kentucky). It's a low slot and some cross-body to the delivery, so he's effective right-on-right, but I don't see a starter package here. Clemson reliever Ryley Gilliam (5) is a one-inning, max-effort guy, 93-95 with a power curveball in the low 80s, but he walked 22 in 38 innings this year for the Tigers. Catcher Nick Meyer (6) is a no-doubt big league backup as long as he hits enough to get there. He has a super-short swing and makes a ton of contact, rarely walks and didn't homer all spring, with three total in 600 career at-bats for Cal Poly. Georgia lefty Kevin Smith (7) is a low-slot, crossfire guy who should be very hard on left-handed hitters but might be limited to a specialist role. Bryce Montes de Oca (9) has hit 100 mph and shows a plus slider, but strikes have been a serious problem, and by the end of the season, Missouri was barely using him. He has to go to the bullpen, but of course with that stuff, he could profile as a high-leverage/late-game option.

Keith and I both dislike the Mets draft.

In comment 13985313 DanMetroMan said:

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Keith and I both dislike the Mets draft.

I actually thought it was more positive than I expected. Knew he liked Kelenic but seems to also like SWR, Cortes and the catcher (I took "no doubt big league backup" as a positive endorsement).

In comment 13985320 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 13985313 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Keith and I both dislike the Mets draft. I actually thought it was more positive than I expected. Knew he liked Kelenic but seems to also like SWR, Cortes and the catcher (I took "no doubt big league backup" as a positive endorsement).

Michael Mayer read it the same way I did. Cortes as a LF basically = a non-prospect. Hill a RP. Where is the upside here? The top 2 picks (one of which expected to go 2-3 rounds later) and who else? Meyer was solid value.. his upside is Drew Butera. Woot woot.

has a below average arm and is 5'8 and doesn't offer any speed. How many LF's in baseball fit that profile?

Here's Mike-

"Michael Mayer
‏

@mikemayerMMO
27m27 minutes ago
More Michael Mayer Retweeted keithlaw
Certainly don't get the impression that Law is high on the Mets 1-10 rounds after reading this."

though are made or busted based on the first couple rounds.

Sure every now and then you find a major league regular from out of nowhere, but statistically the first couple rounds are the only ones with even decent odds of making it to the major leagues.

Doesn't mean mail it in, but it means fretting over it, especially right after the draft, is unproductive.

In comment 13985332 pjcas18 said:

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though are made or busted based on the first couple rounds. Sure every now and then you find a major league regular from out of nowhere, but statistically the first couple rounds are the only ones with even decent odds of making it to the major leagues. Doesn't mean mail it in, but it means fretting over it, especially right after the draft, is unproductive.

Point is taking players with a chance of surpassing your expectations. College relievers are extremely unlikely to do that. If the system has anything it's MR prospects. Not at all being snarky but you don't think Keith Law knows the same statistics that you do?

argue outside of the top 2 picks this might be Sandy's "least upside" draft of his tenure. "Everyone" kept expecting them to pop a big HS player because of how many under slot guys they took. Didn't happen. Mangum going back to school takes one interesting name off the board. I like Hammer in the 21st but wouldn't lose sleep over any of picks 3-10 not signing, that's how exciting that group is.

Gonzalez move is really paying off!

.220/.291/.366 with 80 wRC+- Mets 1b this season

anyone expected to be excited about an Alderson draft. He's been having bad drafts for years and our farm system is in shambles as a result of that. We're on track for another top 10 pick in 2019, so all that we can really hope for is that someone other than Alderson and this front office is in charge when that happens.

I still really appreciate these reports Dan, despite the barren system. Glad to see Alonso go yard again. Really wish they would bench Bruce and give Alonso a chance at 1B in Queens.

rounder Denzel Clarke is a "must" sign for me. Premium athlete, 6'4... someone you could dream on. Baseball family.

rounder Brendan Hardy is undecided, Ross Adolph has agreed to terms, LA Woodard has agreed to terms, Nelson Mompierre has agreed to terms.

Mets 33rd rounder Mike Picollo is going pro per his dad, article suggests Brian Sharp (round 26) is as well but no evidence to back this up #Mets

5th rounder Ryley Gilliam is going pro per his coach Monte Lee #Mets

.

In comment 13985383 csb said:

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.

Doesn't sound particularly close

6/5-Wilmer Flores (back) took dry swings today.

I tapped out for day three. Outside of the guy going to school who are the notable high upside guys they took who they may be able to buy out with what I am praying is the extra money they saved in rounds 1-10.

I feel like ground hog day with this front office though. Last year we literally thought they would have all this extra money to spend in rounds 10+ because of the crap they took and they end up paying close to slot and then only spending what 90% of their cap anyway? I wish I could say I am over being frustrated, it doesnt annoy me like it did 12 years ago, but it is just now how you build a sustainable franchise.

In comment 13985430 bhill410 said:

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I tapped out for day three. Outside of the guy going to school who are the notable high upside guys they took who they may be able to buy out with what I am praying is the extra money they saved in rounds 1-10. I feel like ground hog day with this front office though. Last year we literally thought they would have all this extra money to spend in rounds 10+ because of the crap they took and they end up paying close to slot and then only spending what 90% of their cap anyway? I wish I could say I am over being frustrated, it doesnt annoy me like it did 12 years ago, but it is just now how you build a sustainable franchise.

They didn't take a single "it'll take a mint to land him" lottery ticket. Guys I'd like to see signed

Zach Hammer, Saul Gonzalez, Denzel Clarke, Ian Mejia

heavily involved in the draft before he left for the NFL? Do you think there's been any sort of a fall off since DePo left?

In comment 13985464 Metnut said:

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heavily involved in the draft before he left for the NFL? Do you think there's been any sort of a fall off since DePo left?

I think there's been a fall off in their evaluations across the board since he (and others) left the FO without replacements.

In comment 13985464 Metnut said:

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heavily involved in the draft before he left for the NFL? Do you think there's been any sort of a fall off since DePo left?

A bunch of FO talent has left without replacement. DePo and Fisher to name 2. Running the draft is apparently Marc Tramuta but you never hear from him or anything even about him so who knows?

has also been a clear drop off in their International academy. For a few years they produced guys like Familia, Mejia, Robles, Cessa, Ruben Tejada, Juan Lagares. Not sure what has changed but that well has really run dry.

I had read somewhere he was heavily in on the first two, but I wasnt sure how credible that was.

Dont get why on earth they didnt try and punch any lottory tickets, its not like there is a shortage of picks to go around.

has to go. Even Metsblog is tarring him now


"Just because you tear it down, it doesn't mean you're going to have a great rebuild. It doesn't work that way. It just doesn't," Alderson told Nightengale.
"I don't know why it's become so popular, maybe it's the product of the extremist," Alderson riffed to Nightengale. "In our culture, you're either really good or you stink. There's no reason to be caught in the middle. There's virtue at the extreme. I just don't see it that way.''

Metsblog-

This is true. Of course, in the eight years since Alderson took over the Mets, the Red Sox, Cubs, D-backs, Royals, Astros, and Rockies all lost at least 90 games in a season before cutting their budget and trading multiple veterans for prospects, after which they've all made it to the postseason.

In comment 13985336 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 13985332 pjcas18 said: Quote: though are made or busted based on the first couple rounds. Sure every now and then you find a major league regular from out of nowhere, but statistically the first couple rounds are the only ones with even decent odds of making it to the major leagues. Doesn't mean mail it in, but it means fretting over it, especially right after the draft, is unproductive. Point is taking players with a chance of surpassing your expectations. College relievers are extremely unlikely to do that. If the system has anything it's MR prospects. Not at all being snarky but you don't think Keith Law knows the same statistics that you do?

Of course I'm sure Law knows the same numbers, but how else do you explain the Mets approach?

When you have fans, media, pundits, etc. that look at the draft results and say they suck but the people getting paid to make the picks still make them, do you think the people making the picks are idiots?

Clearly they have to have some going in approach, right?

My sense is that the Mets feel like with low odds to begin with, maybe those low odds become higher with safer positional picks/projection and maybe that's college relievers.

Just a guess, but obviously I have no idea.

And Law is really no different than the NFL pundits, who were formerly in the FO. They're wrong a lot.

I'm not saying the Mets didn't have a bad draft though as stupid as I think it is to evaluate an NFL draft right after it happened, it's about 5 times dumber to do it with MLB), and I'm saying of all 30 3rd round picks only 9 are likely to ever even reach the majors.

Law might say 20 of them were good picks and 10 were bad. Yet the 9 who make it to the majors could all come from his bad picks bucket or a combination of both. I haven't seen Keith Law's track record, but when he was in a front office, they didn't knock every draft out of the park and they had a pretty bad first round history (though ironically JP Ricciardi had more influence than Law).

Dan--
I get a lot of Braves talk down here, but nothing about their Draft. Did you get a chance to look at their picks ??

Did Jay on the Island chime in yet ??

the Mets had a draft in 2007 following the disaster MLB bullpen of 2006 where they 4 college relievers in the first 3 rounds of the draft (they had 6 picks). Eddie Kunz was the only one of the 4 to throw a big league pitch. What they do is not the norm. They are run in a way very few people can explain.

In comment 13985506 DanMetroMan said:

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the Mets had a draft in 2007 following the disaster MLB bullpen of 2006 where they 4 college relievers in the first 3 rounds of the draft (they had 6 picks). Eddie Kunz was the only one of the 4 to throw a big league pitch. What they do is not the norm. They are run in a way very few people can explain.

That draft was a disaster, but that was a completely different regime.

Is Jeff Wilpon running the draft or telling them who to take? Omar and Sandy couldn't be more opposite.

How do you explain the draft similarities?

In comment 13985502 Named Later said:

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Dan-- I get a lot of Braves talk down here, but nothing about their Draft. Did you get a chance to look at their picks ?? Did Jay on the Island chime in yet ??

Haven't had a chance to really look at the Braves draft in depth but loved Carter (would have taken him with the Mets pick without much of a complaint, not saying necessarily over Kelenic but similar caliber talent), Jenista had top 10 buzz before the season and Beck is a solid grab round 4 from a major school. He goes higher if not for the back.

In comment 13985508 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 13985506 DanMetroMan said: Quote: the Mets had a draft in 2007 following the disaster MLB bullpen of 2006 where they 4 college relievers in the first 3 rounds of the draft (they had 6 picks). Eddie Kunz was the only one of the 4 to throw a big league pitch. What they do is not the norm. They are run in a way very few people can explain. That draft was a disaster, but that was a completely different regime. Is Jeff Wilpon running the draft or telling them who to take? Omar and Sandy couldn't be more opposite. How do you explain the draft similarities?

Fred, Jeff and Omar still are here. Many of the Mets scouts remain (Jeff P said the Mets have many of the same scouts dating back almost 20 years at this point, specifically the NCAA scouts). Again, this is the first year I can remember where they could legit not sign a one of the 3-10 picks and I wouldn't lose my mind at all. Zero late lottery tickets. I'm not being negative, just honest. There is no "he's a pipe dream but....".

In comment 13985502 Named Later said:

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Dan-- I get a lot of Braves talk down here, but nothing about their Draft. Did you get a chance to look at their picks ?? Did Jay on the Island chime in yet ??

We won't know for a while obviously but the Braves appear to have had a very good draft despite losing their 3rd round pick from the sanctions. I'm not crazy about Jenista in round 2 but I absolutely loved Stewart at 8 and getting Tristan Beck in the 4th round was a steal, The Braves were considering him in round 2.

If they can sign a few of the players in the 11-25 range then it will have been a strong draft.

season Eder, Van Eyk (7-0 2.89 era as a Frosh at FSU), Labas were all viewed as potential lottery tickets who would be expensive. I see no such players.

The Braves are saying they had Carter Stewart rated number 1 on their board, of course teams always say that.

Gonna be interesting to watch Jenista and Kelenic (gonna have to learn to spell those names).

In comment 13985468 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 13985464 Metnut said: Quote: heavily involved in the draft before he left for the NFL? Do you think there's been any sort of a fall off since DePo left? A bunch of FO talent has left without replacement. DePo and Fisher to name 2. Running the draft is apparently Marc Tramuta but you never hear from him or anything even about him so who knows?

$$$
The Wilpons running things like the Browns run the Bengals.

In comment 13985525 Named Later said:

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The Braves are saying they had Carter Stewart rated number 1 on their board, of course teams always say that. Gonna be interesting to watch Jenista and Kelenic (gonna have to learn to spell those names).

They are very different players. Jenista is a huge kid but he is a surprisingly good athlete for his size. He played CF last year but he will be a RF if he makes it to the pro's. He won't be a gold glover in the field but he should be an above average defender there with a strong arm. He has been given 60-70 grades for his raw power.

In comment 13985525 Named Later said:

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The Braves are saying they had Carter Stewart rated number 1 on their board, of course teams always say that. Gonna be interesting to watch Jenista and Kelenic (gonna have to learn to spell those names).

The Braves claim doesn't seem outlandish to me. Mize (while a very good P prospect) isn't some generational talent.

In comment 13985525 Named Later said:

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The Braves are saying they had Carter Stewart rated number 1 on their board, of course teams always say that. Gonna be interesting to watch Jenista and Kelenic (gonna have to learn to spell those names).

Carter Stewart was my 2nd favorite P prospect after Mize. His floor appears to be a dominant late inning reliever with his ++FB/CB combo.

the Mets scouts and FO if they're the same (and including Omar is a little bit disingenuous since he just returned, but in theory this is the same group who drafted and scouted/signed (and in theory if healthy could all still be playing):

Wright
Reyes
Conforto
Murphy
deGrom
Harvey
Matz
Fulmer
Familia
Rosario
Plawecki
Kazmir
Heilman
Flores
Duda
Nimmo
Lindstrom
Bannister
Niese
Joe Smith
Gimenez

some age, some youth, but that's a pretty solid team if Reyes and Wright still contribute and if not the team still isn't awful with some key free agents.

And that counts no one from recent drafts (really since Conforto) who may pan out like Alonso, Dunn, Szapucki, Guillorme, Humphreys, Peterson, even Smith.

How do other teams stack up?

They have a logjam of P prospects in AA and AAA but they need to rebuild the lower levels with talent especially with the international FA sanctions going into affect. Stewart can take his time developing and if things go well he will be MLB ready when a few of the others are nearing the end of their contracts.

Wright was drafted 17 years ago. Even if he wasn't hurt he'd almost certainly be in decline mode at nearly 36 years old same with Reyes, Heilman, Joe Smith etc. Proof is in the pudding isn't it? The Mets have won 85+ games 5 times over the past 18 seasons. "Good" teams by comparison... Cardinals... 14 times. Giants 10 times. Yankees 15 times.

you don't have to listen to me, both Jeff P and Jarrett Seidler (Mets fans who work for baseball prospectus) have trashed the Mets for the player development. They would have more of a league wide perspective than either of us.

Jeffrey Paternostro
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@jeffpaternostro
1h1 hour ago
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For a team that wants to compete the next two years and has no pitching depth, maybe promote the three high pick college arms out of A-ball at some point.

Jeffrey Paternostro
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@jeffpaternostro
22h22 hours ago
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I�ve started sketching out the midseason list for BP Mets because #content comes for us all. This is still a bad system even with the improvement across the board for Gimenez/Alonso.

Jeffrey Paternostro
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@jeffpaternostro
22h22 hours ago
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You very quickly have to start considering future pen arms (Hanhold, Smith, Bashlor) or dudes 5+ years away (Santos, Consuegra, Newton). Kelenic is the only pick so far that obviously makes the top 15 or so. But beyond that even if you hit what are you really getting?

Jeffrey Paternostro
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@jeffpaternostro
22h22 hours ago
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What does a breakout 2020 top ten Mets prospect look like from this class? Where is it coming from? You can argue the second best prospect here is a 9th round reliever senior sign.

Jeffrey Paternostro
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@jeffpaternostro
22h22 hours ago
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The Rockies went heavily college as well, picked after the Mets every round for the most part and ended up with a way more interesting crop of players.

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Jeffrey Paternostro
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22h22 hours ago
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They aren�t even spending full pool for a lot of these day 3 picks which is just needlessly cheap. You could find interesting college dudes today if that�s really the road you want to go down still.

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Jeffrey Paternostro
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22h22 hours ago
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They just haven�t ever hit on guys with this Day 2 strategy, and they aren�t even going for overslot prep arms on Day 3 (though they haven�t done much better in that cohort either).

Jarrett Seidler
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@jaseidler
24h24 hours ago
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if you don�t think the Mets care about winning at Brooklyn, you needn�t look much further than how many high performing/low ceiling college kids they are popping even into the teens


Jarrett Seidler
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@jaseidler
Jun 5
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The Mets have popped six catchers in the top 15 rounds (which is where you pay your real bonus money) over the past five drafts. The best prospect they�ve pulled using this strategy is Mazeika, by far.

If you go back another year you get Plawecki and Nido too.

Jarrett Seidler
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@jaseidler
Jun 5
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it would be funnier if this strategy wasn�t a colossal failure at producing role 5 and up prospects

Jarrett Seidler
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@jaseidler
Jun 5
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If I have my Mets draft bingo card right there�s a backup catcher prospect coming in the next two rounds before the non-prospect senior signs

In comment 13985553 DanMetroMan said:

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you don't have to listen to me, both Jeff P and Jarrett Seidler (Mets fans who work for baseball prospectus) have trashed the Mets for the player development. They would have more of a league wide perspective than either of us.

I'm not saying the Mets develop players well, I'm simply saying evaluating the Mets 2018 draft the day after it happened is silly.

In comment 13985566 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 13985553 DanMetroMan said: Quote: you don't have to listen to me, both Jeff P and Jarrett Seidler (Mets fans who work for baseball prospectus) have trashed the Mets for the player development. They would have more of a league wide perspective than either of us. I'm not saying the Mets develop players well, I'm simply saying evaluating the Mets 2018 draft the day after it happened is silly.

You can suggest "on paper" it's uninspiring while allowing the fact that "we will see" and player development doesn't always go as you want or expect. The two things don't have to be connected. They don't deserve the benefit of the doubt.

If so, I�m sticking to TOP 10...

HR. Let's wait until he's 27 or 28 to give him a look.