NFT: Mets Minors 6/12/2018-Yuck

You only do that 2 ways: a huge fire sale of current top talent like Synderguaard and DeGrom or you suck for 5 years and draft smartly at the top of the draft order.

They are in the business of selling tickets. They have to keep selling degrom and syndergaard

Ranked higher?

In comment 13989142 spike said:

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Ranked higher?

Middling pure stuff across the board. Limited upside.

Jeffrey Paternostro
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@jeffpaternostro
25m25 minutes ago
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Replying to @WexlerRules @MrMustSeeTV @nymets945
The overarching issue tend to be an emphasis on college performance over projectable major league tools.

I trust the Mets right now to do a full rebuild. Feels like they will mess it up like everything else.

In comment 13989358 Rory said:

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I trust the Mets right now to do a full rebuild. Feels like they will mess it up like everything else.

Terrible reason not to do it. As is, this roster is going nowhere fast. It's not as if they have a load of young talent on the way or money coming off the books. How much worse can it get? Worst record in baseball over the past 4-5 weeks or whatever it is.

In comment 13989160 DanMetroMan said:

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Jeffrey Paternostro ‏ @jeffpaternostro 25m25 minutes ago More Replying to @WexlerRules @MrMustSeeTV @nymets945 The overarching issue tend to be an emphasis on college performance over projectable major league tools.

You need to balance both. My issue with the Mets draft is more that they take players whose realistic upside is major league reliever too early (Hill, Gilliam) when someone like Montes de Oca you can get as a "Senior Sign" in Round 9 or later on on Day 3. Two college Senior relievers with absurd numbers (Jose Tirado of Jackson State and Seth Kinker of Ohio State) went undrafted. I believe Mike Siani signed for roughly $2,000,000 with Cincy. Are you really telling me that Weathers + Siani is worse than Kelenic + SWR especially when the former will likely come cheaper? Siani may have a lower floor than Kelenic, but I think has a higher upside.

I am pleasantly surprised that 24th Rounder Hayden Senger signed. With Nick Meyer and two college Seniors (Capra and Mompierre) I thought he would pull a Matt Duce, go back to school, and be some team's first Catcher drafted in 2019

In comment 13989397 Mike in NY said:

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In comment 13989160 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Jeffrey Paternostro ‏ @jeffpaternostro 25m25 minutes ago More Replying to @WexlerRules @MrMustSeeTV @nymets945 The overarching issue tend to be an emphasis on college performance over projectable major league tools. You need to balance both. My issue with the Mets draft is more that they take players whose realistic upside is major league reliever too early (Hill, Gilliam) when someone like Montes de Oca you can get as a "Senior Sign" in Round 9 or later on on Day 3. Two college Senior relievers with absurd numbers (Jose Tirado of Jackson State and Seth Kinker of Ohio State) went undrafted. I believe Mike Siani signed for roughly $2,000,000 with Cincy. Are you really telling me that Weathers + Siani is worse than Kelenic + SWR especially when the former will likely come cheaper? Siani may have a lower floor than Kelenic, but I think has a higher upside.

Mike to be fair Jeff was specifically addressing why the Mets have whiffed on so many similar guys ie
Reynolds, Paez, Woodmansee, Tiberi (still time but 23 and has been awful), well see about Thompson, Brodey has been pathetic, Mazzilli, King, Garcia, Moore etc... they take guys who are flaming out before they even hit AA.

Hernandez hasn't played in almost a week. Hopefully GCL bount but otherwise... Mets curse.

may head to LV soon.

@TimBritton
Alderson: "It was a good opportunity to see Dom Smith. Dom's not been hitting the cover off the ball. We want to see him.... This might be a short-term proposition for Dom; it might be longer-term."


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@ByJamesWagner
Sandy Alderson: "Given the ups and downs, it's a little bit unclear where we are and what we are and where we are going. ... There have been such extreme ups and downs. I�m still confident there�s something there."

If Dominic Smith is not our best offensive player when Wilmer Flores comes back, Dominic will be sent back to AAA and Jose Reyes has a lifetime contract.

Is Juan legares. You want to gonvoerslot for that???

Remember Nimmo hit .230 last year at Vegas after hitting .350 the previous year.

Dom hit over .300 last year at Vegas. Young guys sometimes get down on themselves or get stuck in a rut. Let�s see how he does. I don�t think any of us are expecting much but maybe he will surprise

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Matt Ehalt ‏Verified account @MattEhalt 42m42 minutes ago Sandy also essentially said Mets really don't have anyone they feel at moment is a quantifiable upgrade over Reyes.

Isn't this an indictment of his own roster building.

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Matt Ehalt ‏Verified account @MattEhalt 15m15 minutes ago Alderson on Reyes: "In some ways this in an indictment of other personnel, we have to have somebody we want to replace him that we think that meets that threshold. "

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Matt Ehalt ‏Verified account @MattEhalt 13m13 minutes ago Alderson on Reyes: "I can assure that the decision on Jose or any other player is going to be on the merits."

The guy is batting under .150 with a .415 OPS, and playing shoddy D. That's merit?

this is scary. I get DMM's point on tearing it down, but I shudder to think you get one try at this (assuming you trade a superstar like a deGrom or Thor) and this is the guy making the call.

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Matt Ehalt ‏Verified account @MattEhalt 24m24 minutes ago Alderson: "Given the ups and downs we�ve experienced this year, it�s a little bit unclear as to where we are and what we are and where we�re going and I think we�re going to know more in the next several weeks.

Reyes -0.9 fWAR. If Jeff McNeil isn't an upgrade NOW then you might as well just release him. Jose Reyes is on pace to be roughly NEGATIVE 4.0 fWAR over a full season.

career with the Mets looks over.

In comment 13989536 DanMetroMan said:

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career with the Mets looks over.

AJ?

In comment 13989542 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13989536 DanMetroMan said: Quote: career with the Mets looks over. AJ?

Yes.

Anthony DiComo
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@AnthonyDiComo
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AJ Ramos is considering surgery for his shoulder issue. He'll make that decision in the next few days. "We certainly don't expect him back anytime soon," Alderson said.

That would end his career here.

Thor second opinion too. What a disaster.

from the day it was made. is there no level of accountability?

I'm not talking knee jerk reactions, look at the body of work.

Of 9 mil

In comment 13989550 spike said:

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Of 9 mil

plus Merandy Gonzalez and Ricardo Cespedes.

and it had a chain reaction. I know it may not seem this way, but IMO I think having Ramos prevented the Mets from considering Reed.

Now Reed hasn't been great by any stretch it's all relative and variable based.

already this year. I know, war, but realistically Reed on this team would have meant more than 1 win during that stretch where the BP couldn't do anything right - with a couple of those blown games being directly on Ramos.

I didn't love the trade but was happy they did something to address the BP, and it turns out something is not always better than nothing.

rehashing it because it's not the reason the Mets are where they are, but it made zero sense to me for the Mets to be buyers with the Marlins (of Ramos) when they should have been sellers.

At least if you're going to be buyers, but Yelich (obviously at a higher cost) and take back Ramos' money in the deal.

But some 40 spots opening up might expedite the youth movement. Sad, but true.

on fangraphs today about the Mets. Both of them.... optimistic! And supported by real data!

One was on Lugo. Compared him to Rich Hill. Noted a velocity increase that carried over to his start and noted increased curveball usage and better effectiveness following that.

Other was a case against trading DeGrom. It argued that while 2018 is a long shot at this point, the team likely has at least .500 talent (using relatively conservative projections that account for playing time) in 2019 and 2020, and would have $30-40M extra to spend just to get to current payroll (even accounting for arb raises). Given that a lot of the returning players are relatively young, he argues that it wouldn't make sense to tear it up and better off to add to payroll and make playoff runs in 2019 and 2020. Not sure I completely agree, but it's a good article and should be read.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mets-might-have-the-right-handed-rich-hill/

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/trading-jacob-degrom-would-be-foolish/

I didn't read the links yet, but based on your summary I don't disagree with the second point, but it depends on who is calling the shots.

with the same talented core, Sandy has not done a good job of filling in around them externally or creating internal options.

Or the team has been ravaged by injury, at some point injuries can no longer be the excuse and the fact the team keeps relying on perpetually injured players falls on the person who relies on them.

so did they mention Sandy at all or just the current roster/system?

Glad Lugo is getting another start. I think he�s probably the Mets third best starter.

In comment 13989716 pjcas18 said:

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I didn't read the links yet, but based on your summary I don't disagree with the second point, but it depends on who is calling the shots. with the same talented core, Sandy has not done a good job of filling in around them externally or creating internal options. Or the team has been ravaged by injury, at some point injuries can no longer be the excuse and the fact the team keeps relying on perpetually injured players falls on the person who relies on them. so did they mention Sandy at all or just the current roster/system?

Nah, didn't mention Sandy (commenters did though lol). And I don't disagree with you. I've been hard on Sandy and think we could do better. The summary paragraph (after he does all the work to show .500 projected team with conservative projections).

"Right now, the Mets have around $92 committed to payroll next season, and even adding another $30 million or so for arbitration raises, the team would still have $30 million to spend in free agency. At a minimum, the Mets should be able to go out and buy about three more wins without increasing payroll from where it is right now. Doing the minimum makes the Mets a playoff-level team heading into 2019. With nearly all of the team also under contract for 2020 and even fewer salary commitments then, a rebuild should be out of the question for the Mets. There�s always going to be a risk that deGrom or Syndergaard could get hurt or decline, but eliminating potential contending seasons in the hope of a rebuild for multiple years down the road provides more risks when it comes to fielding a winning team. The Mets can listen on deGrom and Syndergaard, but unless a trade is going to make them better in 2019 � which is nearly impossible � the club is better off trying to win with their aces."

have the 11th best ERA in all of baseball. 7th in the NL.

The starting pitching, especially of late, has been good enough to compete, even without Thor.

the anemic offense and the leaky bullpen have been the demise.

27th OPS
25th HR (last year tops in the NL)
26th in BA
28th in runs
27th in SLG
19th in SBs (higher than I thought)

Relievers ERA (24th)
Relievers BA against (20th)
Relievers 6th most blown saves
Relievers 25th in FIP

No bullpen, no offense = no success.

I thought the Mets success depended on the rotation, but I at least expected the offense and bullpen to be mediocre. they haven't been.

getting second opinion on his finger injury.

it's always good news when Mets players get second opinions. Finger injuries become elbows or shoulders.

In comment 13989726 pjcas18 said:

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getting second opinion on his finger injury. it's always good news when Mets players get second opinions. Finger injuries become elbows or shoulders.

Trying to rule out some wacky diagnoses�s.
Mickeys got some experience with this, at his suggestion.
Knowing the Mets - who knows what they�ll find.

just need to do a better job going for it than Sandy (and ownership) have done the past couple years.

2015 was a mirage of 100% health in the starting rotation with the 3 top guys. That overcomes a lot of flaws like bad defense, bad situational hitting, and a thin BP. But instead of fixing the flaws of the roster around that, they applied bandaids. Cabrera, Walker, Bruce, Vargas, Frazier, Swarzak are all bandaids of various shapes/sizes/effictiveness. They need to start spending resources on building blocks. Can't keep overspending on mediocrity.

And when they do spend building block resources, they need to get it right. As crippling as all those bandaid moves were, the obvious move that everyone wanted (resigning Cespedes) has been just as crippling.

In comment 13989721 pjcas18 said:

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have the 11th best ERA in all of baseball. 7th in the NL. The starting pitching, especially of late, has been good enough to compete, even without Thor. the anemic offense and the leaky bullpen have been the demise.

I expected the offense to be better, especially the 3 starting OF'ers. The BP was always a concern because it's truthfully never been championship level in Alderson's time here. The lineup hasn't either, but that's expensive and hard to change. BP's are more easily fixed. Look no further than the Yankees who have basically acquired Chapman and Robertson twice in 4 years thanks mostly to being willing to spend money. They'd also acquired Andrew Miller. Betances is really the main guy they developed. And it's not like any of those guys got crazy contracts. The Mets have spent just as much on Walker/Bruce/Cabrera/etc. who have all been pretty thoroughly mediocre.

In comment 13989737 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 13989721 pjcas18 said: Quote: have the 11th best ERA in all of baseball. 7th in the NL. The starting pitching, especially of late, has been good enough to compete, even without Thor. the anemic offense and the leaky bullpen have been the demise. I expected the offense to be better, especially the 3 starting OF'ers. The BP was always a concern because it's truthfully never been championship level in Alderson's time here. The lineup hasn't either, but that's expensive and hard to change. BP's are more easily fixed. Look no further than the Yankees who have basically acquired Chapman and Robertson twice in 4 years thanks mostly to being willing to spend money. They'd also acquired Andrew Miller. Betances is really the main guy they developed. And it's not like any of those guys got crazy contracts. The Mets have spent just as much on Walker/Bruce/Cabrera/etc. who have all been pretty thoroughly mediocre.

Yeah, a lot of us were concerned with the bullpen, but I didn't expect then to be this "leaky".

Familia having his worst season
Ramos sucked
Blevins really sucked
Swarzak hurt

If any of those 4 guys were just having a nomral, decent year, they'd have another win or two. Lugo and Gsellman were obviously fortunate additions, but not enough to compensate for since the overall BP was still among the worst in the league (currently 26 on FG).