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NFT: NHL Draft and Offseason Discussion

pjcas18 : 6/12/2018 8:47 am
Ok, now that the playoffs are over and Ovi is in day 5 of a summer long bender figured maybe worth starting draft thread and one for off-season rumors.

I'll start with Brian Wilde's final top 15. I think all of these guy are legit blue-chip prospects.

I disagree with the order, but IMO they're all legit.

Brian Wilde's top 15 prospects.

Quote:

Brian Wilde
& #8207; @BWildeRecrutes
35m35 minutes ago

My final top 15 Picks

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Kotkaniemi
5. Tkachuk
6. Hughes
7. Wahlstrom
8. Bouchard
9. Dobson
10. Boqvist
11. Hayton
12. Kupari
13. Miller
14. Smith
15. Berggren


They love Kotkaniemi in MTL and he writes for recrutes, so he is higher here (justifiably) than some places.

If the Rangers drafted Dobson there I'd say you have a top pair RD to pair with Skjei.

Not Dahlin or Hughes as a skater, but he's got a cannon shot, good size, is a rock defensively and has offensive skill - reminds of a little of Roman Josi.

but this is a ranking not a mock draft. It won't fall this way.

Also found this gem, Kovalchuk is apparently asking for or is expected to get $8M per season? Good luck, whoever signs him at that $$ deserves it if he's awful.

Quote:

Grant McCagg
& #8207; @grantmccagg
1h1 hour ago

Ilya Kovalchuk...a 35-year-old who has played 32 career NHL playoff games....is going to get what.....$8M per? No thanks.

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RE: RE: The last pick in the first round  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 10:05 am : link
In comment 14000601 figgy2989 said:
Quote:
In comment 14000599 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


is obviously better than the last pick in the 2nd round, but I hesitate to call this good news for anyone other than TB if it happens.



Well another positive is it gets Tavares out of the division.


That I'd agree with and I didn't mean to say if the Rangers get eliminated they shouldn't root for TB to win the cup to improve that pick, they should, but the NHL draft is really top heavy for historical success.

For example, pick #31, only 29% of players picked #31 even play 100 NHL games. Regardless of quality. Only 10% become top 6F/top 4D. 85% however are "4th line or worse"

Statistically speaking, historically (over a 23 year sample) pick #31 is actually worse than pick #62 (32% of players picked at #32 play in 100 NHL games, but only 7.5% become top 6/4 and 86% are "4th line or worse").

Anyway, it's all just numbers if your scouts are good they'll beat the percentages, just saying it's not as great a prize to have take a way the sting of seeing the ex-Rangers win a cup (if you care about things like that).

RE: RE: RE: The last pick in the first round  
figgy2989 : 6/27/2018 10:10 am : link
In comment 14000607 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14000601 figgy2989 said:


Quote:


In comment 14000599 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


is obviously better than the last pick in the 2nd round, but I hesitate to call this good news for anyone other than TB if it happens.



Well another positive is it gets Tavares out of the division.



That I'd agree with and I didn't mean to say if the Rangers get eliminated they shouldn't root for TB to win the cup to improve that pick, they should, but the NHL draft is really top heavy for historical success.

For example, pick #31, only 29% of players picked #31 even play 100 NHL games. Regardless of quality. Only 10% become top 6F/top 4D. 85% however are "4th line or worse"

Statistically speaking, historically (over a 23 year sample) pick #31 is actually worse than pick #62 (32% of players picked at #32 play in 100 NHL games, but only 7.5% become top 6/4 and 86% are "4th line or worse").

Anyway, it's all just numbers if your scouts are good they'll beat the percentages, just saying it's not as great a prize to have take a way the sting of seeing the ex-Rangers win a cup (if you care about things like that).


PJ, I definitely agree and usually outside the top 5-10 picks, it's all a crap shoot. I am on board with a full rebuild and the more assets you can get the better chance you will have to hit on picks. At a minimum, they are building depth. It's a far cry from when Sather was at the reigns and would throw away picks on trying to chase a cup. Just my opinion of course.
RE: Starting to read  
KWhite2250 : 6/27/2018 10:20 am : link
In comment 14000567 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
quite a bit of speculation about Tavares to the Lightning.

Holy shit. Would be close to the NHL version of a super team.

Stamos
Kucherov
Tavares

Hedman
Vasilevsky
McDonagh

Might be as dominant as the Gretzky Oilers.

Hope it doesn't happen.


Also heard Plekanec back to the Habs. Could have predicted that one.


Where is this specualtion? Most of the bigger hockey experts are saying they expect him back to isles
Twitter  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 10:27 am : link
agree, most still have the Islanders as the favorites, but more than a couple beat guys on twitter suggested not so fast, here's why the Lightning can be attractive (and it starts with $$ and the lack of state income tax in FL, then goes on to the quality of the team being a contender, etc.)
RE: Twitter  
KWhite2250 : 6/27/2018 11:28 am : link
In comment 14000621 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
agree, most still have the Islanders as the favorites, but more than a couple beat guys on twitter suggested not so fast, here's why the Lightning can be attractive (and it starts with $$ and the lack of state income tax in FL, then goes on to the quality of the team being a contender, etc.)


Thanks, just thought I had missed something. I assume tomorrow will be the day all of us Isles fans celebrate or go back to same old shit despite hiring lou and trotz
That would be unfair if he went to the Lightning  
Jay on the Island : 6/27/2018 11:57 am : link
How the hell can they afford to sign him? Look at their cap numbers:

Stamkos 8.5 million
Hedman 7.87 million
Callahan 5.8 million
Palat 5.3 million
Miller 5.25 million
Johnson 5 million
Kucherov 4.766 million (due for a new contract soon)
McDonagh 4.7 million
Stralman 4.5 million
Killorn 4.45 million

They reportedly have less than 200K in cap room.
RE: That would be unfair if he went to the Lightning  
KWhite2250 : 6/27/2018 12:00 pm : link
In comment 14000716 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
How the hell can they afford to sign him? Look at their cap numbers:

Stamkos 8.5 million
Hedman 7.87 million
Callahan 5.8 million
Palat 5.3 million
Miller 5.25 million
Johnson 5 million
Kucherov 4.766 million (due for a new contract soon)
McDonagh 4.7 million
Stralman 4.5 million
Killorn 4.45 million

They reportedly have less than 200K in cap room.


I read that you dont have to be under the cap until a certain day....not sure if true. So they can sign him and then worry about trading guys
Tyler Johnson  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 12:02 pm : link
was traded (unfortunately to MTL) in many scenarios.

They have a lot of money off the books next year (most on D - all the ex-Rangers D - McDonagh, Girardi, Stralman), plus Coburn - freeing up over $17M starting next year.

They can make it work.

Callahan was also a candidate to dump.
RE: That would be unfair if he went to the Lightning  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 12:04 pm : link
In comment 14000716 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
How the hell can they afford to sign him? Look at their cap numbers:

Stamkos 8.5 million
Hedman 7.87 million
Callahan 5.8 million
Palat 5.3 million
Miller 5.25 million
Johnson 5 million
Kucherov 4.766 million (due for a new contract soon)
McDonagh 4.7 million
Stralman 4.5 million
Killorn 4.45 million

They reportedly have less than 200K in cap room.


According to cap friendly they are $5M under the cap with 20 of 23 contracts.

After JT Miller extension.

Maybe the 200k is after RFA tenders to players like Paquette.
I was reading that TOR apparently impressed.  
BrettNYG10 : 6/27/2018 12:04 pm : link
.
Vegas has Tavares odds out..  
Mike in Long Beach : 6/27/2018 12:10 pm : link
Isles +125
Sharks +275
Leafs +500
Bruins +700
Stars +800
Lightning +850
RE: That would be unfair if he went to the Lightning  
Anakim : 6/27/2018 12:11 pm : link
In comment 14000716 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
How the hell can they afford to sign him? Look at their cap numbers:

Stamkos 8.5 million
Hedman 7.87 million
Callahan 5.8 million
Palat 5.3 million
Miller 5.25 million
Johnson 5 million
Kucherov 4.766 million (due for a new contract soon)
McDonagh 4.7 million
Stralman 4.5 million
Killorn 4.45 million

They reportedly have less than 200K in cap room.



I'm sure the Rangers will bail out Stevie Y
RE: That would be unfair if he went to the Lightning  
The 12th Man : 6/27/2018 12:14 pm : link
In comment 14000716 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
How the hell can they afford to sign him? Look at their cap numbers:

Stamkos 8.5 million
Hedman 7.87 million
Callahan 5.8 million
Palat 5.3 million
Miller 5.25 million
Johnson 5 million
Kucherov 4.766 million (due for a new contract soon)
McDonagh 4.7 million
Stralman 4.5 million
Killorn 4.45 million

They reportedly have less than 200K in cap room.


They would have to make a trade.
RE: RE: That would be unfair if he went to the Lightning  
Jay on the Island : 6/27/2018 12:43 pm : link
In comment 14000742 Anakim said:
Quote:
In comment 14000716 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


How the hell can they afford to sign him? Look at their cap numbers:

Stamkos 8.5 million
Hedman 7.87 million
Callahan 5.8 million
Palat 5.3 million
Miller 5.25 million
Johnson 5 million
Kucherov 4.766 million (due for a new contract soon)
McDonagh 4.7 million
Stralman 4.5 million
Killorn 4.45 million

They reportedly have less than 200K in cap room.




I'm sure the Rangers will bail out Stevie Y

The Devils will be happy to take Hedman's deal off their hands. Hell we will even take Vasilevsliy as well.
If it brings back some  
bigbluehoya : 6/27/2018 12:46 pm : link
Of TBs high end D prospects, I wouldnt mind seeing NYR take back Callahan and Girardi in a trade.

Especially if it helps get Tavares out of the division.
RE: If it brings back some  
Ross : 6/27/2018 2:31 pm : link
In comment 14000785 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
Of TBs high end D prospects, I wouldnt mind seeing NYR take back Callahan and Girardi in a trade.

Especially if it helps get Tavares out of the division.
Exactly. It's a win win for the Rangers
Big Penguins move  
Rover : 6/27/2018 4:01 pm : link
1) Trade Sheary and Hunwick to Sabers for conditional 4th. The Sabers assume the entire salaries.

2) Sign jack Johnson to a 6 year 14 million deal.
Penguins  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 4:05 pm : link
extended Rust last week, 4 years $14M.

Seems like more than he's worth.

Also, 5 year deal for Jack Johnson (3 - 3.5M per) and I know he's Crosby's buddy, but man, he's is a perfect example of rapidly eroding skills.

RE: Penguins  
Rover : 6/27/2018 4:14 pm : link
In comment 14000959 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
extended Rust last week, 4 years $14M.

Seems like more than he's worth.

Also, 5 year deal for Jack Johnson (3 - 3.5M per) and I know he's Crosby's buddy, but man, he's is a perfect example of rapidly eroding skills.

6 years...AAV is what Hunwick was.
Not bad.

Rust's deal is fine, he is pretty valuable, can play a variety of positions.
Where are you seeing  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 4:17 pm : link
6 years?

Everything I see says 5. And just b/c Hunwick was overpaid isn't a good reason to overpay Johnson.

Quote:

Jason Mackey
‏Verified account @JMackeyPG

.@MarkMaddenX first reported that the Penguins intend to sign defenseman Jack Johnson Sunday to a five-year deal. Confirming that. Source says it will be in the $16 million range total (between $3-$3.5 million AAV).
And I would much rather  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 4:27 pm : link
have Sheary than Rust even with the down season from Sheary, who is pretty much a no name easily replaceable player for less, if not for a couple playoff GWG most people wouldn't even know his name.

DSP  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 6:00 pm : link
back to the caps. allegedly turned down more money elsewhere to stay in DC.

Don't see that too often, especially for a guy like DSP who isn't like a mega $$$ player at the end of his career.

Quote:

Pierre LeBrun
‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun
37m37 minutes ago

Hearing that @smithpelly23 has agreed to return to the Caps on a one-year deal. Believe that he turned down more lucrative offers from two other teams but wanted to stay with the Cup champs who are tight vs the salary cap
This is crazy  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 8:38 pm : link
I hope Bergevin doesn't cave.

Ryan O'Reilly is a good player, but not even close to this good.

Quote:

HabsLinks
‏ @HabsLinks
10m10 minutes ago

Pierre Lebrun on Insider Trading says the Sabres asking price for Ryan OReilly is a 1st rd pick, a 2nd rd pick + a very good prospect
RE: This is crazy  
JayBinQueens : 6/27/2018 9:32 pm : link
In comment 14001134 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
I hope Bergevin doesn't cave.

Ryan O'Reilly is a good player, but not even close to this good.



Quote:



HabsLinks
‏ @HabsLinks
10m10 minutes ago

Pierre Lebrun on Insider Trading says the Sabres asking price for Ryan OReilly is a 1st rd pick, a 2nd rd pick + a very good prospect




Is that before or after his 7.5 mil bonus is paid
His bonus  
pjcas18 : 6/27/2018 9:55 pm : link
is due 7/1 I think so unless something happens in the next couple days probably after it's paid.

he still is owed a ton of money for a long time.
Hope it's not more than two years..unless it's cheap  
Ross : 6/28/2018 11:10 am : link
David Pagnotta


@TheFourthPeriod
Follow Follow @TheFourthPeriod
More
The New York Rangers have been in talks with forward Leo Komarov on a multi-year deal. Sounds like it's getting to that point. Wouldn't be surprised to see deal finalized on Sunday.
RE: Hope it's not more than two years..unless it's cheap  
pjcas18 : 6/28/2018 11:18 am : link
In comment 14001437 Ross said:
Quote:
David Pagnotta


@TheFourthPeriod
Follow Follow @TheFourthPeriod
More
The New York Rangers have been in talks with forward Leo Komarov on a multi-year deal. Sounds like it's getting to that point. Wouldn't be surprised to see deal finalized on Sunday.


have to get that sandpaper.

and this...  
Ross : 6/28/2018 11:23 am : link
My cousin (who's in Vancouver and has some connections to NHL players) just told me there is a rumor that a Lucic deal is imminent and the Rangers may be involved. Hmmm
I imagine there will be a buyout available in the next CBA, so I'm  
BrettNYG10 : 6/28/2018 11:34 am : link
Fine if they take an albatross contract like Lucic's as long as they get paid appropriately.
RE: I imagine there will be a buyout available in the next CBA, so I'm  
Ross : 6/28/2018 11:36 am : link
In comment 14001485 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Fine if they take an albatross contract like Lucic's as long as they get paid appropriately.

Agreed, unless they need to buyout Staal.
He'll only have two more years left after this.  
BrettNYG10 : 6/28/2018 11:39 am : link
They'd probably just let his deal ride.

The Post this morning had this quote:

Quote:
But we went into last years draft having a pretty good idea where wed be going on a rebuild and the type of individuals we were looking for in that context. We said it last year and its true: Lias leadership and character were major factors for us, and maybe characteristics in which we were a little bit lacking.


If you knew you were rebuilding, why did they buyout Girardi?
NY Post - ( New Window )
Lucic  
pjcas18 : 6/28/2018 11:52 am : link
and Kamorov? too much sand paper.

Lucic isn't an offensive threat anymore. He had his lowest point total in 8 seasons.

Good third line though if you have Komarov, Lucic, and re-sign Cody McLeod.

No one would want to face that line and no one would mess with the youngsters.

Thing is though, pj  
bigbluehoya : 6/28/2018 11:59 am : link
A deal for Lucic wont just be a sandpaper add. The rangers should be getting something else of good quality for taking him on. 2 birds.

I could take or leave Komarov. Not too much term, please.
I would absolutely take on Lucic's contract  
Anakim : 6/28/2018 12:04 pm : link
If it meant ridding ourselves of Staal's or Smith's, and also getting a shit ton of assets from them. First rounder? Klefbom? Yamamoto?



But I have to say, I haven't liked a lot of Gorton's transactions lately. The draft (and the trade up and the selection of a goalie in the second round), the McDonagh/Miller trade (thought we could've definitely gotten more), Grabner trade was okay, but he reportedly had a ton of interest so it makes me wonder whether we could've gotten more.

And Komarov is whatever. His best days are behind him. He'll be a nice mentor for the kids and a solid guy on the PK. My concern is the length and the terms of the deal. We have all this cap space so I wonder if Gorton will overpay him.
Nak  
bigbluehoya : 6/28/2018 12:07 pm : link
I tend to agree about the specific moves, but what do I know...

More important to me that theyve embraced the process. It was necessary.
RE: Thing is though, pj  
pjcas18 : 6/28/2018 12:09 pm : link
In comment 14001536 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
A deal for Lucic wont just be a sandpaper add. The rangers should be getting something else of good quality for taking him on. 2 birds.

I could take or leave Komarov. Not too much term, please.


Like what? a draft pick? Chiarelli has shown he's not exactly a shrewd negotiator, but I wouldn't pay someone significant assets to take on Lucic. He's overpaid, but on a team with McDavid it's nice to have a guy who can intimidate a little.

This is a relief  
pjcas18 : 6/28/2018 12:10 pm : link
I doubt Voynov plays in MTL too visible.

Maybe for the Coyotes if he's reinstated.

Quote:

Renaud Lavoie
‏ @renlavoietva
50m50 minutes ago

On Slava Voynov. His rights are still owned by the Kings and reports that the Canadiens and the Kings had trade talks regarding him are not accurate, according to multiple sources. Conclusion: hell never play in Montreal.
And think about this  
pjcas18 : 6/28/2018 12:13 pm : link
Chiarelli is the guy who signed Lucic (just two years ago).

If he needs to throw in a player of value to get someone to take Lucic off their hands how does he keep his job?

With a regime change I think you can get away with deals like that, but not when you're the guy who did the damage in the first place. At least IMO.

RE: RE: Thing is though, pj  
bigbluehoya : 6/28/2018 12:16 pm : link
In comment 14001554 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14001536 bigbluehoya said:


Quote:


A deal for Lucic wont just be a sandpaper add. The rangers should be getting something else of good quality for taking him on. 2 birds.

I could take or leave Komarov. Not too much term, please.



Like what? a draft pick? Chiarelli has shown he's not exactly a shrewd negotiator, but I wouldn't pay someone significant assets to take on Lucic. He's overpaid, but on a team with McDavid it's nice to have a guy who can intimidate a little.


Youre more in tune with these things than I am, but most of what Ive read (not NYR-centric sources) seems to say that Edmonton is pretty eager to make the dump and that given the remaining term, it wont be cheap. Its 5 years, high $, and a skill set that doesnt really age well (apart from the fists).
I assumed that to mean  
pjcas18 : 6/28/2018 12:18 pm : link
EDM would have to eat salary, not give better players or picks for someone to take Lucic.

We'll see, like I said nothing Chiarelli does shocks me other than the fact he's still employed.

He and Bergevin could combine on trades that somehow both teams lose.
I figured  
bigbluehoya : 6/28/2018 12:22 pm : link
EDM would be more focused on freeing up the full $6m to improve the cast of characters around CMcD.

I have a strange feeling that a deal gets done with NYR, and that it involves at least an unprotected 1st or a nice prospect.
RE: I figured  
Anakim : 6/28/2018 12:28 pm : link
In comment 14001588 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
EDM would be more focused on freeing up the full $6m to improve the cast of characters around CMcD.

I have a strange feeling that a deal gets done with NYR, and that it involves at least an unprotected 1st or a nice prospect.


It would have to. Lucic's contract is absolutely putrid and the thought of having to protect him in the expansion draft in a few years? I'd want a first rounder, Yamamoto, and I would take a chance on Pully...and Smith or Staal would have to agree to go the other way.
RE: RE: I figured  
pjcas18 : 6/28/2018 12:39 pm : link
In comment 14001609 Anakim said:
Quote:
In comment 14001588 bigbluehoya said:


Quote:


EDM would be more focused on freeing up the full $6m to improve the cast of characters around CMcD.

I have a strange feeling that a deal gets done with NYR, and that it involves at least an unprotected 1st or a nice prospect.



It would have to. Lucic's contract is absolutely putrid and the thought of having to protect him in the expansion draft in a few years? I'd want a first rounder, Yamamoto, and I would take a chance on Pully...and Smith or Staal would have to agree to go the other way.


LOL.

If this happens, Chiarelli will be sued by the Oilers fans.

You want:

EDM Sends:
Lucic (and his full salary)

Kailer Yamamoto (up and coming 19 year old first round pick from 2017 - team USA WJC U18 and U20 - starred in both tourneys)

1st round pick

Jesse Puljujarvi (19 year old #4 overall pick in 2016)

Rangers send:

Staal - whose salary pretty much cancels Lucic for the next three years and is a worse player.

I don't even expect trades this lopsided proposed from WFAN callers.

I really believe if Chiarelli makes a trade like this he'd get death threats.
That ask is absurd  
bigbluehoya : 6/28/2018 12:42 pm : link
Id be happy with any 2 of those 4 asks. And I probably do it for 1 of the 4.
Agree  
pjcas18 : 6/28/2018 12:46 pm : link
if NYR take Lucic and send back Staal you may get a 2nd round pick too, but that's probably it IMO.

300k salary relief and a worse player and you want more?

If the Rangers keep Staal and unload Deangelo or someone else I guess I can see the Oilers sweetening it a little for the Rangers to take all that salary, but not Yamamoto. I wouldn't do that.
RE: Agree  
Anakim : 6/28/2018 12:49 pm : link
In comment 14001642 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
if NYR take Lucic and send back Staal you may get a 2nd round pick too, but that's probably it IMO.

300k salary relief and a worse player and you want more?

If the Rangers keep Staal and unload Deangelo or someone else I guess I can see the Oilers sweetening it a little for the Rangers to take all that salary, but not Yamamoto. I wouldn't do that.


Lucic's contract is longer than Staal's. They would have to protect Lucic in an expansion draft.
So Smith  
Anakim : 6/28/2018 12:51 pm : link
2 of a first rounder, Yamamoto, and Pully to take on Lucic's contract. But mind you, Pully is looking like a bust. He's only 20, but he hasn't looked good so far.
Staal going the other way  
bigbluehoya : 6/28/2018 12:52 pm : link
Doesnt make a lot of sense for EDM. Theyre trying to get better for right now, not trade the spread between years 3 and 5 from today.
chiarelli..  
2cents : 6/28/2018 12:56 pm : link
I like ripping on chiarelli as much as the next guy, but lets not get too crazy with these offers.
The Rangers are probably going to suck for the next 2-3 years.  
BrettNYG10 : 6/28/2018 12:56 pm : link
There's no point in trading Smith/Staal if it will water down returns.
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