Not going to Wilpon/Sandy bash here; we all know that they have mismanaged there finances profoundly (100+M on Bruce, Ces, Vargas, Ramos, Reyes, Familia, Blevins, Lagares, Frazier[not to mention Wright] for ~0 WAR is staggering, but it is what it is.
We have, in my opinion, 9 really valuable core assets age 30 and under
deGrom
Syndergaard
Wheeler
Matz
Lugo
Gsellman
Nimmo
Conforto
Rosario
+role players like Flores, Plawecki, TJ Rivera (when healthy) and prospects like McNeil and Alonso just around the corner.
On paper we really shouldn't be as bad as we are. To be that far under .500 after starting 11-1 is just shocking. We're not that bad. We lost so many games we should have never won. There is going to be some regression.
So I really can't justify going into a rebuild. 2 all star aces, 2 potential all star outfielders, 2 #3 starters, a high upside shortstop. We can't just throw this core away and rebuild. We're too young in too many positions to just rip it up. deGrom and Syndergaard don't grow on trees.
So how do we retool. I see 6 real needs.
1. A legit right handed power bat that can stay consistently healthy;
2. a stud closer
3. a left handed reliever
4. builpen depth.
5. Right handed defensive/speed outfielder that can stay healthy
My Plan --& gt; We need to be creative
-Familia and Cabrera will be traded, that is a near certainty
-Cut Reyes
-Can we find a taker for Blevins?
-Can we somehow get rid of Bruce (this is the challenge) I had heard or Bryan Shaw for Bruce swap, and i'd be in favor of that. But bottom line is, he just doesn't fit us.
-We need to uncover a loogy gem, and a gutsy left-handed/right handed bat off the bench.
-Finally, We need to spend in free agency and we need to spend on MACHADO. laugh all you want but he fits this organization like a glove. His agent is Dan Lozano - the same agent as Mike Piazza (maybe Mikey P can pitch him for us) but we need to open the vault for this guy. He solves so many problems.
We have a ton of money coming off the books, and do the Yankees really want to spend $300 mil on top of stanton, especially when they will need to pay sanchez, judge, severino, didi. The Yanks need pitching not another power bat and I don't see them jumping in on that sweepstakes for some reason.
Anyway. If you agree with me that we shouldn't rip it down, what are your thoughts on how we should/could rebuild it back up.
But I will challenge you this. Pull up the roster. Quick glance at the most si old, old time stats that exist. Glance at tonights lineup, and corresponding batting averages. Then pull up the rotation and pen, and glance at the eras. Useless stats, agreed. But it avoids getting caught up in the nonsense, overanalytic way of trying to argue this isnt a bad team. Pull up the roster, just look at those stats without the names.
Then pull up the shittiest teams in all of baseball that you can think of. Exclude the names, and repeat the exercise a few times. Then make the argument that this isnt a bottom five team in all of baseball. AGain, the key point is you have to ignore the names...
Normally I'd contribute to a thread like this, but I'd only be posting the same stuff from the last 40 threads on this topic.
But I see the problem more in that we have given so much of our at bats and innings to terrible players (Reyes, Bruce, Vargas, Vargas, Cespedes) have done NOTHING. even if they were replacement level we would be in a better spot.
According to FanGraphs we're 12th in SP WAR (with Vargas) and 20th in Batting WAR (which includes underperformance from Bruce/Conforto/Rosario and injuries to Ces and Frazier).
Based on WAR, we should be right around 15-16th in MLB, so .500.
So I don't see us as bottom 5.
The orioles have like a 1000 abs to players that are producing -0 WAR in the aggregate;
I see us like 2015 right now. Ton of pitching talent, missing a few key bats. Only difference is that '15 we hovered around .500, we are now in a free fall.
As it relates to the rest of the team. Too many cheap veteran signings. Gonzalez, Bruce, Reyes, etc. Injuries, injuries, injuries. Constantly with Lagares, Flores, TDA, YC.
Finally, lack of development of minor league positional talent. It's alarming that out of TDA, Plaw, Rosario, Smith and Conforto, not one of these guys has established themselves as a reliable, every day all star. I understand that there is hope for some of those guys still and injury has bothered a few others (plus Nimmo looks good), but nothing consistent to show as far as results yet.
I agree, and I only posted - not to be a dick - just to say normally I'd be all over this thread, but I'm kind of worn out on it. I'd rather focus on the minors, the draft IFA rumors, etc.
the same trsdeable assets are the same tradeable assets unless people want to move deGrom. I do not. And the return is likely to be less than what people hope for, on all the tradeable assets (except deGrom).
They are a mismatched team that is poorly conceived.
If the starting pitching was the Mets strength then you build a team with that in mind.
You then put a premium on defense and relief pitching.
Your offense can be built around timely hitting, speed, and manufacturing runs.
This how KC did it.
Any player who does not fit the profile I would get rid of.
Love your posts....keep pounding that keyboard.
You've identified 5 key needs (which match almost every other teams needs to some extent). We'll be lucky if they can fill half of those needs, and none of it is coming back in a trade for our slackers.
1. A legit right handed power bat that can stay consistently healthy;
Do you know where we can get one of those ?? Jeter gives it away for free to his old team.....where's ours ??
2. a stud closer
We had one. He's burnt out. Nothing in the high minors. Move a power starter to the bullpen ??
3. a left handed reliever
They've thrown huge sums of money at lefties over the last few years. They might as well set fire to that money.
4. bullpen depth.
See #3 above.
5. Right handed defensive/speed outfielder that can stay healthy.
The best they're going to be able to do is keep Nimmo upright.
The other teams seem to develop their players throughout the Minors. Some of the Mets highly touted MiLB players get to the bigs and they often seem lost. I'm looking at you Rosario. I get a lot of Braves happy talk down here. They sent about 8 players to the Sally League All Star game -- if their successful in developing only 25% of them -- they're ahead. Fangraphs placed 14 Braves on their recent Prospect List.
The Mets have to make some moves, if only to clear the stench out. Vargas is terrible. Does Jose Reyes want to be a coach, because he is otherwise useless here. Give DWright his curtain call appearance, and then let's move on.
Just unload on him. I think it makes the most sense out of anything they can do. Pull out the read carpet. Do whatever it takes. SIGN MACHADO SIGN MACHADO SIGN MACHADO. He changes the entire franchise and a player like him comes along only once in a blue moon. Give him 300 mill, front load it with an opt out at 30.
-Release Jose Reyes
-DFA Jason Vargas
- Call up Jeff McNeil, new starting 3b
-Call up Oswalt, new 5th starter
-Trade Todd Frazier
-Trade Asdrubal Cabrera
-Trade Familia
- Put in waiver claims for ANY potentially interesting players the way teams like Toronto and Seattle do.
-Listen to offers for DeGrom, Thor, Matz and Wheeler (LISTEN, not saying you need to deal DeGrom or Thor but certainly be open to a deal that blows you away).
-If you keep DeGrom pay him fair value in the off-season
-Give Dom Smith the remainder of the season as the 1b (Obviously if he's really pathetic you pull the plug)
-Give Sandy a severance package and hire Damon Oppenheimer. If he's comfortable keeping Callaway on, then so be it. If he wants his own guy. Bye Mick.
I worry thought that the approach here is a bit too shallow. Yes, we have X assets and Y holes, so we should try to fill the Y holes with Z players to improve the team. All the guys you identified as tradeable are sensible and Machado would of course be a huge help, but the problem and rot here is so deep that I think we need to go beyond just the MLB roster.
The farm system is looking at a second year in the bottom 5. It's so thin that we've resorted to washed up vets like AGonz and Bautista to get major playing time. Given Sandy's track record in FA, do we really want to just keep this front office and have him make a few moves to try and win again in 2019? He's had a long enough time. Let's get someone new in here who can take a different approach to drafting, IFA, development in the minors.
If you're able to have a minor league system that's consistently in the top half of MLB, things are so much easier. You have guys under cost control coming up that can fill slots, you have all sorts of ammo to make trades, you don't have to go outside the organization as much to fill holes.
So I guess I'm saying, yea, we can trade Cabrera, Frazier, Familia, swap Bruce for another bad contract, sign a closer in the offseason or do whatever and hope for some better luck in 2019, but I'd like to see a new approach from the top down here.
What I would do:
- Pray wright retires so that excuse regarding payroll vanishes
- Sign machado and play him at short (unless they trade frazier)
- Move Rosario to 2nd for next year. Know that we have McNeil potentially as a fill in if he continues to struggle, but with inherent talent have to give it a little bit more time IMO.
- Like DMM said keep Smith at 1st for rest of year. If he flounders start him in AAA and sign a Matt Adams esch 5 million dollar guy for first to start year. Plan on calling Alonso up in June assuming he thrives at AAA like AA.
- Have Ces get surgery now if he actually needs it.
- Start Outfield with Nimmo, Conforto, and Ces assuming Ces doesnt need surgery. Lagaras can be backup with McNeil behind him.
- Sign a catcher to pair with TDA. I am kind of over hoping for plaw (sorry shecky). I would be okay with moresco but if not a wilson ramos type or someone strong with pitchers with just a average bat would work.
- Extend Degrom this off season (should have done it last year but the individuals who shall not be named screwed it up)
- Go into next season with Degrom, Thor, Matz & Wheeler planned for rotation. There are a ton of starters that may come relatively decently priced and see where that shakes out. It would be nice to move Lugo to pen but that would require signing a starter.
- Move Vargas into pen as LOOGY. Gsellman, swarzk and lugo for high leverage innings.
- Sign one of the numerous high impact relievers on the market and actually, you know pay them instead of try and sign a mediocre one for 7 million.
Obviously you have to open the bank for Machado and a reliever. The 5th starter you just need depth while hopefully Peterson and/or Dunn is ready for spot starts mid season.
This year it goes without saying but I'd dump all the dead wood like Reyes, and unathletic veterans like Cabrera before the deadline and give some kids time this year. Hopefully Familia can bring back something good. Everyone else traded will probably bring back more org fodder, but that's ok.
In the offseason, Machado would be a huge step in the right direction but it's a pipe dream, but they need to find a solution for production at 1B, even if it's a short term placeholder for Alonso. Or maybe moving Cespedes there to keep him healthy.
To fix the BP I'd probably do everything I could to not only bring back Familia, but also lock down a top setup man. Whether that's Ottovina or Robertson or Brach or 2/3. They need to bring in at least 2 more guys with 9th inning experience to complement Gsellman, and 1 guy who can excel in the 8th inning. Let Swarzak & young arms fit more comfortably in the 7th inning and earlier.
At 2B I'd try to pry Dee Gordon from Seattle. He's not having a great year but he's on a reasonable salary and would stabilize the middle infield defensively and leadoff spot for a couple years. The catcher position sucks, so hard to have a plan there except suck as little as possible.
Unfortunately a lot would still hinge on Cespedes returning to provide RH power - but I think that's just an unignorable reality. If they followed this plan at least the team speed and defense would be much improved, and the entire pitching staff would be among the best in the game. Gordon/Nimmo/Cespedes/Conforto/Frazier/Rosario should be able to score some runs.
Can we make ourselves more appealing than philly/atlanta, would the dan lozano connection help?
That's fair honestly didn't look into him that deeply. Point is I'd go for the top tier names in FA. That's something they have strategically not done. If Andrew Miller ends up being available he'd be a great target. Him, Familia and Gsellman could be the foundation of a great BP.
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on Brach. 2-3 years for a 33 year old who walks the ballpark with declining velocity. Would be typical Mets = likely disaster.
That's fair honestly didn't look into him that deeply. Point is I'd go for the top tier names in FA. That's something they have strategically not done. If Andrew Miller ends up being available he'd be a great target. Him, Familia and Gsellman could be the foundation of a great BP.
Wasn't looking to be nit picky. Just a guy I'd steer clear from. 33 next season 17 walks in 28 innings, and velocity is way down. He's exactly the kind of guy we go "yeah but in 2016 he was DOMINANT!" cut to 33-34-35 and yuck.
Just unload on him. I think it makes the most sense out of anything they can do. Pull out the read carpet. Do whatever it takes. SIGN MACHADO SIGN MACHADO SIGN MACHADO. He changes the entire franchise and a player like him comes along only once in a blue moon. Give him 300 mill, front load it with an opt out at 30.
Not happening with this franchise, besides why on earth would machado come to the Mets besides money? (which he will get plenty of somewhere else). This is where careers come to die...
SF? NO - Evan Longoria/Brandon Crawfor
BOS - No, spent a ton recently
NYY - Maybe? But doesn't make sense to allocate
WAS - Gonna sign Harper
CHI - Positions blocked
That leaves STL/PHI/ATL/NYM - I think we have a fighters chance.
Just my feelings. I think we need to do a Beltran run.
There are some easy ways we can clean up the roster right now like cutting Reyes and Robles but there is still plenty of time in the second half to get youngsters reps if we are completely out of it and end up being sellers. Actually, you're probably better off hoping some of the vets pick it up a bit between now and then and maybe you can flip them on a team on July 31.
Cespedes has been a disaster of a signing, Bruce's 2018 is a joke compared to what he put up last year, and Frazier has been ok but can be easily replaced.
10 k's over 30 ab's. I know you mentioned the sample size but for that reason alone (with a .421 BABIP) it's basically not even worth mentioning. 100% not looking for one of our famous fights. He's striking more NOW than he did last year when he was called up.
Whenever he gets back he and Smith should get long looks over the 2nd half.
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Only 11 games but a wRC+ of 140.
10 k's over 30 ab's. I know you mentioned the sample size but for that reason alone (with a .421 BABIP) it's basically not even worth mentioning. 100% not looking for one of our famous fights. He's striking more NOW than he did last year when he was called up.
He's taken some good atbats and hit the ball hard. Im not looking to scrutinize those 11 games down to peripherals. Just pointing out he's looked well. Haircut the wRC+ from 140 to 110 and I think we'd all still be happy. Just looking for him to continue to grow and continue to get comfortable. Obviously he struggled in Vegas this year. If it were the other way around everybody would be screaming that he needed to be off the team over the same sample. I think we both agree he should get the rest of the year and we'll let the cards fall where they lie.
Sidenote. When was our last famous fight? 2012? ;)
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Very annoyed Cecchini has been out so long. He seemed to have fixed his "Swing issues" from last year and may have been in the mix for a 2b look if Cabrera were traded at the deadline.
Whenever he gets back he and Smith should get long looks over the 2nd half.
Yup. Really the only conundrum (and nobody here really believes we will make a run anyway except maybe me if we get Thor and Ces back immediately) is if the rare chance Thor and Ces do come back and everyone stays healthy, Smith might lose a lot of playing time to Bruce at 1B because there is no way Nimmo is sitting on the bench again.
So frustrating. The two of them out during this stretch is like an anchor dragging the boat on the bottom of the ocean. AGAIN.
Yeah! I mean I brought this up a few weeks ago. So odd with some of the injuries this year. WTF?
Nimmo:
Im intrigued by it for sure. It would be a really cool experience. There will be other factors, how Im feeling at that point. So much can happen in a month. I think its going to go more into how Im feeling, but heck, its an honor to even be asked that question.
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boot was removed a MONTH ago... radio silence. Same with Rivera. I know the new policy is talking about injuries less but Cecchini is taking a very, very long time given the original timeline.
Yeah! I mean I brought this up a few weeks ago. So odd with some of the injuries this year. WTF?
To lazy to find it but the word was legit 1 month ago "should be in games within days". So either that was wrong of the injury hasn't healed.
Bob Waterman
@esbbob
Hansel Robles has allowed 32 home runs in 208 career innings for the Mets. His average of 1.4 HRs allowed per nine innings is the second worst in Mets history (min. 200 IP), behind Pedro Astacio (1.6 HRs per 9 IP).
Vegas is a waste for these youngsters developmentally.
Though Im a glutton for punishment as I am heading there tonight.
We have no catching prospects. Hes the best weve got.
You should take Sandys job. He might be worse than Omar
Might resign him for a year at a discount. Nido has been disappointing
If they stay the course, they will be wasting the careers of 2 dynamic and outstanding pitchers.