I missed that thread and would like to know what people think about it.
is it as simple as maybe stop raising the f'ing short term fed funds rate every 3 months when there's no real inflation?
You didn’t miss anything - it died fast after a snide political comment.
As for the Federal Funds rate, the rate was at near zero 6 years into an economic expansion. That’s dangerous to continue. Cutting the federal funds rate is one of the big weapons the Fed as at its disposal during a financial crisis. Leaving it near zero severely impairs their ability to act. Even with the increase, the rate is still at a very low rate historically.
I missed that thread and would like to know what people think about it.
is it as simple as maybe stop raising the f'ing short term fed funds rate every 3 months when there's no real inflation?
You didn’t miss anything - it died fast after a snide political comment.
As for the Federal Funds rate, the rate was at near zero 6 years into an economic expansion. That’s dangerous to continue. Cutting the federal funds rate is one of the big weapons the Fed as at its disposal during a financial crisis. Leaving it near zero severely impairs their ability to act. Even with the increase, the rate is still at a very low rate historically.
Jim, does this have to with the Federal Reserve? If so, I've always wondered how/why the hell did this private organization ever get to control 100% of the U.S. money supply? Weird.
Usually, if I think a topic/article would veer that way, I just don't post it.
But fucking interest rates?
I was looking forward to hearing from several BBI financial experts on what they make of the yield curve.
Oh, well...
A couple of snide political posts about the NYT as a source. Before deletion I responded by saying that given that the current US rates are so skewed with respect to the rest of the world and there is so much central bank intervention (again comparatively) it is difficult to rely on the past as precedent.
Usually, if I think a topic/article would veer that way, I just don't post it.
But fucking interest rates?
I was looking forward to hearing from several BBI financial experts on what they make of the yield curve.
Oh, well...
A couple of snide political posts about the NYT as a source. Before deletion I responded by saying that given that the current US rates are so skewed with respect to the rest of the world and there is so much central bank intervention (again comparatively) it is difficult to rely on the past as precedent.
Jim, does this have to with the Federal Reserve? If so, I've always wondered how/why the hell did this private organization ever get to control 100% of the U.S. money supply? Weird.
It’s not a private organization. The individual Federal Reserve banks are private entities, but the Federal Reserve system itself is a government organization operated by governors appointed by the President.
It was created because before it’s existence the US had a financial panic every few years.
a question with an obvious and often singular answer ...
Out of curiosity for specifics. I'm sometimes fascinated how things can fly off the rails over what might appear, on the surface, to be a somewhat innocuous (and apolitical) subject.
a question with an obvious and often singular answer ...
Out of curiosity for specifics. I'm sometimes fascinated how things can fly off the rails over what might appear, on the surface, to be a somewhat innocuous (and apolitical) subject.
because people are stupid and a holes. answered lol
My comment at the time was that you were really asking if a recession was imminent because of a trend in the yield curve, and the obvious answer is nobody really knows. So the thread wasn't going to go anywhere except in the shitter.
The surprise was that it went so quickly.
Advice to the Mods: if you really want donations to keep this site going, consider asking the trolls that you cater to with decisions like this...
I then have a question and a comment. The question is this: when a single asshole turns an economic discussion into a political one and ruins the thread, do you ban the asshole? Is the idiot who ruined this discussion at least suspended?
My comment is about the question of the flatness of the Treasury yield curve. In a pretty detailed recent article, I went into this, making the case that technological change is very likely pushing down out-year inflation expectations and related Treasury yields down. The basic concepts are this:
--As Automation/Robotics/AI take hold, productivity will rebound, and disposable incomes will come under pressure. This pair of trends creates what is known as a growing "output gap": more and cheaper products and services, weaker demand. This would be AT LEAST disinflationary.
--Since the productivity rebound hasn't started yet, t isn't in Fed thinking--although many of their economists are looking at these issues. So, the focus is on near and intermediate term patterns, which means Fed tightening and higher short/intermediate yields.
--The long end, though, is appropriately beginning to discount lower inflation later on.
The result, as I see it, is that long-term Treasury yields are discounting a very different economic environment than the inner curve, and don't need to move higher. Bottom line: a flat to negative Treasury curve is quite possible WITHOUT risk of recession.
Detailed discussion of the productivity issue from a great team of futurist economists led by Brynjolfsson linked below. Link - ( New Window )
not just snide remarks about the Times, and really it's hard to discuss an issue like this without it being political.
Regarding bannings, banning of multiple posters does effect the site and site quality, so we try to do it judiciously. Since there were more than just a few political comments, and back and forth about the comments, and since the topic is conducive to political comments, it seemed more expedient to delete the thread.
Frankly, I'm really not sure why some of you are surprised about this.
I missed that thread and would like to know what people think about it.
is it as simple as maybe stop raising the f'ing short term fed funds rate every 3 months when there's no real inflation?
You didn’t miss anything - it died fast after a snide political comment.
As for the Federal Funds rate, the rate was at near zero 6 years into an economic expansion. That’s dangerous to continue. Cutting the federal funds rate is one of the big weapons the Fed as at its disposal during a financial crisis. Leaving it near zero severely impairs their ability to act. Even with the increase, the rate is still at a very low rate historically.
Jim, does this have to with the Federal Reserve? If so, I've always wondered how/why the hell did this private organization ever get to control 100% of the U.S. money supply? Weird.
No weird. Allows for a ton of control with no oversight. All
Nations use currency manipulation as an economic weapon. Not the biggest fan of the sketchy crypto currency market but governments do NOT want any currency they can't manipulate.
is it as simple as maybe stop raising the f'ing short term fed funds rate every 3 months when there's no real inflation?
...someone would turn it into a political thread.
Usually, if I think a topic/article would veer that way, I just don't post it.
But fucking interest rates?
I was looking forward to hearing from several BBI financial experts on what they make of the yield curve.
Oh, well...
is it as simple as maybe stop raising the f'ing short term fed funds rate every 3 months when there's no real inflation?
You didn’t miss anything - it died fast after a snide political comment.
As for the Federal Funds rate, the rate was at near zero 6 years into an economic expansion. That’s dangerous to continue. Cutting the federal funds rate is one of the big weapons the Fed as at its disposal during a financial crisis. Leaving it near zero severely impairs their ability to act. Even with the increase, the rate is still at a very low rate historically.
Quote:
I missed that thread and would like to know what people think about it.
is it as simple as maybe stop raising the f'ing short term fed funds rate every 3 months when there's no real inflation?
You didn’t miss anything - it died fast after a snide political comment.
As for the Federal Funds rate, the rate was at near zero 6 years into an economic expansion. That’s dangerous to continue. Cutting the federal funds rate is one of the big weapons the Fed as at its disposal during a financial crisis. Leaving it near zero severely impairs their ability to act. Even with the increase, the rate is still at a very low rate historically.
Jim, does this have to with the Federal Reserve? If so, I've always wondered how/why the hell did this private organization ever get to control 100% of the U.S. money supply? Weird.
...someone would turn it into a political thread.
Usually, if I think a topic/article would veer that way, I just don't post it.
But fucking interest rates?
I was looking forward to hearing from several BBI financial experts on what they make of the yield curve.
Oh, well...
A couple of snide political posts about the NYT as a source. Before deletion I responded by saying that given that the current US rates are so skewed with respect to the rest of the world and there is so much central bank intervention (again comparatively) it is difficult to rely on the past as precedent.
Quote:
...someone would turn it into a political thread.
Usually, if I think a topic/article would veer that way, I just don't post it.
But fucking interest rates?
I was looking forward to hearing from several BBI financial experts on what they make of the yield curve.
Oh, well...
A couple of snide political posts about the NYT as a source. Before deletion I responded by saying that given that the current US rates are so skewed with respect to the rest of the world and there is so much central bank intervention (again comparatively) it is difficult to rely on the past as precedent.
Ahhh... got it! Thanks.
Jim, does this have to with the Federal Reserve? If so, I've always wondered how/why the hell did this private organization ever get to control 100% of the U.S. money supply? Weird.
It’s not a private organization. The individual Federal Reserve banks are private entities, but the Federal Reserve system itself is a government organization operated by governors appointed by the President.
It was created because before it’s existence the US had a financial panic every few years.
It was created because before it’s existence the US had a financial panic every few years.
Seems like some things never change.
Out of curiosity for specifics. I'm sometimes fascinated how things can fly off the rails over what might appear, on the surface, to be a somewhat innocuous (and apolitical) subject.
You can say that again... a whole lotta anger!
Quote:
a question with an obvious and often singular answer ...
Out of curiosity for specifics. I'm sometimes fascinated how things can fly off the rails over what might appear, on the surface, to be a somewhat innocuous (and apolitical) subject.
because people are stupid and a holes. answered lol
.
My comment at the time was that you were really asking if a recession was imminent because of a trend in the yield curve, and the obvious answer is nobody really knows. So the thread wasn't going to go anywhere except in the shitter.
The surprise was that it went so quickly.
Advice to the Mods: if you really want donations to keep this site going, consider asking the trolls that you cater to with decisions like this...
My comment is about the question of the flatness of the Treasury yield curve. In a pretty detailed recent article, I went into this, making the case that technological change is very likely pushing down out-year inflation expectations and related Treasury yields down. The basic concepts are this:
--As Automation/Robotics/AI take hold, productivity will rebound, and disposable incomes will come under pressure. This pair of trends creates what is known as a growing "output gap": more and cheaper products and services, weaker demand. This would be AT LEAST disinflationary.
--Since the productivity rebound hasn't started yet, t isn't in Fed thinking--although many of their economists are looking at these issues. So, the focus is on near and intermediate term patterns, which means Fed tightening and higher short/intermediate yields.
--The long end, though, is appropriately beginning to discount lower inflation later on.
The result, as I see it, is that long-term Treasury yields are discounting a very different economic environment than the inner curve, and don't need to move higher. Bottom line: a flat to negative Treasury curve is quite possible WITHOUT risk of recession.
Detailed discussion of the productivity issue from a great team of futurist economists led by Brynjolfsson linked below.
Link - ( New Window )
Regarding bannings, banning of multiple posters does effect the site and site quality, so we try to do it judiciously. Since there were more than just a few political comments, and back and forth about the comments, and since the topic is conducive to political comments, it seemed more expedient to delete the thread.
Frankly, I'm really not sure why some of you are surprised about this.
Quote:
In comment 13999458 Csonka said:
Quote:
I missed that thread and would like to know what people think about it.
is it as simple as maybe stop raising the f'ing short term fed funds rate every 3 months when there's no real inflation?
You didn’t miss anything - it died fast after a snide political comment.
As for the Federal Funds rate, the rate was at near zero 6 years into an economic expansion. That’s dangerous to continue. Cutting the federal funds rate is one of the big weapons the Fed as at its disposal during a financial crisis. Leaving it near zero severely impairs their ability to act. Even with the increase, the rate is still at a very low rate historically.
Jim, does this have to with the Federal Reserve? If so, I've always wondered how/why the hell did this private organization ever get to control 100% of the U.S. money supply? Weird.
No weird. Allows for a ton of control with no oversight. All
Nations use currency manipulation as an economic weapon. Not the biggest fan of the sketchy crypto currency market but governments do NOT want any currency they can't manipulate.