In today's off-day exercise, you get to pick one and only one player to target for a trade and you have to say what you would give up in return. You can shoot for the moon with a guy like DeGrom and be willing to give up some premium value in return (if you're being reasonable) or target one of the half-year rentals like Hamels and offer up a lot less (but it will still take more than just a limited package like Adams and Mckinney). What does the algorithm in your head project as the best do-able deal for the Yankees? My current thinking (subject to change on a daily basis)...
Target: Syndergaard
Compensation: Frazier, Drury, Sheffield, Abreu.
I know, I know, that's a lot to give up. But if it's not painful, it's not realistic.
From the Yankees perspective
--They are getting a proven, top-of-the-rotation, 25-year old with 3 1/2 years left of team control who will slot right in as the #2 starter behind Severino (and they didn't have to give up Torres, Andujar, or Florial). Think about how huge it would be to have two young aces under team control until 2022! The only downside is Syndergaard's history of injuries, but that's all part of the equation that makes him available for a manageable/reasonable price tag.
--They are giving up two young position players who have proven they belong in the Majors, but are buried on the Yankees depth chart; and two of their top pitching prospects, one in Triple A, the other in single A. It's the pitchers that make it painful for the Yankees, but no pain, no gain; and while the two check in as the team's top two pitching prospects according to MLB. com, I'm not convinced they're all that more likely to reach stardom than some of the other arms in the system like Medina, Loaisiga, Stephan, Sauer, Schmidt, Whitlock, and more. Sheffield tops the list based on probability of success, not necessarily upside.
From the Mets perspective
--They are getting two young, starting quality position players under team control (Frazier for five more years, Drury for three) and two very highly regarded pitching prospects, one of whom is ready to make his major league debut (and should slot in right away as a mid-rotation guy), the other just a year or two away (with a fastball that reaches triple digits and two other plus pitches). How often do you get that combination of production and potential without having to give up your veteran #1 starter (DeGrom)?
--They are giving up something that no team ever wants to give up, a young, proven, top-of-rotation pitcher still with years of team control. And to their cross-town rival.
p.s.--I'm not sure how often teams package more than four players in a trade for just one in return, but I would be willing to add another player or two to sweeten the deal: i.e., German, Adams, Acevedo, or one of the established middle-relievers (hopefully not Green or Holder, I love them, but not enough to stand in the way of a deal for Syndergaard).
To me he's a thrower who's more interested in what the gun says and striking everyone out than pitching effectively like Sevy does.
He's a six inning pitcher at best and no more unless he changes and from what I can see he doesn't seem like a guy that wants to. Maybe a change of scenery would change that but I wouldn't count on it.
Debt, deGrom, Tanaka would be an unreal 1,2,3. Factor in our bullpen and that sounds enticing to me. I really like Frazier and want him to be.a part of this teams future however, I would really like to see what Sheffield can do in the bigs too before trading him. A lefty starter, he’ll a lefty arm in general is a big need down the road with CC likely done, and Montgomery still in recovery.
p.s.--Torres and Andujar coming up as fellow rookies reminds me a little of when Fred Lynn and Jim Rice debuted the same year. Lynn had more hype as a rookie, but Rice had the Hall of Fame career; and I wonder if the same could be true of Torres and Andujar.
We still need a SP for the 2nd half and playoffs. I don't want to give up a top prospect or a big package without getting someone controllable for a year or two past this season.
I have 2 untouchables: Florial and Sheffield. There is only 1 player I would give Sheffield up for that is DeGrom. He is under contract through 2020 and he is a top 5 pitcher.
Other than that I still like Fulmer from Det. I think that if he gets out of there and on a team with a winning culture he will have Verlander/Cole turn around.
People I will part with: Adams, Drury, Austin, Montgomery, Wade to name a few.
p.s.--Torres and Andujar coming up as fellow rookies reminds me a little of when Fred Lynn and Jim Rice debuted the same year. Lynn had more hype as a rookie, but Rice had the Hall of Fame career; and I wonder if the same could be true of Torres and Andujar.
I don't want to give up Andular either and I don't want Syndergaard. Keep Drury in the trade for DeGrom and throw in another top prospect on top of your offer for Thor and I'm in.
Even though I like Frazier a lot and want to keep him, to get DeGrom I'd
part with him. Not for Thor though.
This is the guy I want too, but the problem is that he's back now and the Giants are 8-2 over their last 10. He's probably not available.
Then I'm passing on a big package that includes the players you mentioned. I'm only going to give up that much for an Ace.
If I can't get one, I'm sitting tight and seeing what I can do from within first. Then if that doesn't work out I'm going for an established pro, innings eater type guy who won't cost nearly as much in either quantity or quality.
I'm not sold on Gary for the long term, and that was before his awful start to the season
Jameson Taillon too.
Funny - i said same to my buddy the other day. Gray should have some value as he's under control and Happ is a rental.
I'm not sold on Gary for the long term, and that was before his awful start to the season
Yes, that would be idiotic
Agree to a point - theyre going to lose kids in the Rule 5 draft so they need to package a few to get something in return or risk losing quality assets for nothing.
I don't trade Gleyber/Miggy for anyone. Frazier needs to be a young under contract potential top 2 starter.
I trade anyone in the lower levels to get a frontline guy. People saying Florial is untouchable - but would trade Frazier - are insane.
Lefty starter would be great for Yankee Stadium. Moving Gardy opens up space in the OF and moves a contract. Moving Gray gets rid of the missing the plate by 3 feet while nibbling around the edges.
Lefty starter would be great for Yankee Stadium. Moving Gardy opens up space in the OF and moves a contract. Moving Gray gets rid of the missing the plate by 3 feet while nibbling around the edges.
All due respect but this is ridiculous. Arizona is in 1st place and have Pollock, Peralta and Jay in the OF. There is a 0% chance they would do that.
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And if they were, the asking price would be outrageous, so those two aren't in the mix (as I see it at least).
Then I'm passing on a big package that includes the players you mentioned. I'm only going to give up that much for an Ace.
If I can't get one, I'm sitting tight and seeing what I can do from within first. Then if that doesn't work out I'm going for an established pro, innings eater type guy who won't cost nearly as much in either quantity or quality.
Something's lost, but something's gained... - ( New Window )
Would be a major upset if they don't... but Arizona isn't trading him for 2 veterans and a PTNL. First place teams don't trade their ace
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for Bumgarner. If the pieces are equal in terms of deGrom/Bumgarner (which I don't think it will be,Mets will ask for much more to justify a trade w/Yankees),I'd go w/MadBum,a lefty who has proven to be a big game pitcher in post season!
This is the guy I want too, but the problem is that he's back now and the Giants are 8-2 over their last 10. He's probably not available.
I agree It was in response to the question of who I'd target. The only hope is that between now & July 31st, they start losing! Otherwise,it's Happ/Hamels territory & if Hamels won't be traded w/o his $20 million option being enforced for next year, I'd go after Happ!
While CC has been good, he was running out of gas at the end of last year, I wouldn't have confidence he would last through the post-season.
Not sure who the target should be, but that would be an OK move.
Otherwise, I really don't want to make moves
Inferior deals are a Wilpon specialty!
Cole Hamels is probably an ideal candidate. Two Padres' pitchers, Tyson Ross (having a good season) and Clayton Richard, wouldn't cost the prospect haul like Thor, and would provide stability to the rotation.
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but are really unlikely to trade for him.
Would be a major upset if they don't... but Arizona isn't trading him for 2 veterans and a PTNL. First place teams don't trade their ace
Agreed. That was like a bad fantasy baseball offer.
This is exactly why it's going to be quite hard for the Yankees to land an "ace" (at least one with an ace resume pitching well). Teams don't trade these kind of pitchers without blue chip headliners. The scouting/analytics guys earn their money here... looking for a "Verlander" who can be "fixed" or a lesser name with good stuff who can get the job done. Happ is a very good target for the Yankees however.
mid tier starter or two to absorb innings and let the kids stay within safe workloads?
1st baseman as insurance. strangely enough.
relief pitcher to replace Robertson at the end of the year and power through a playoff game if needed or minimize wear and tear on delicate or working under limits starters like Tanaka and the kids ( and to keep needed pieces from the Astros and Sox...or even to make the market higher in relief pitchers. Cashman bluffing to make the long term competitors pay dearly)
Back up catcher someplace in the minors just in case.
Buyers but for cement pieces for this and next year.
Id be stunned if the Yankees deal with the Mets, Baltimore or Pittsburgh.
Id be fine if they held steady and fine if they took small pieces.
I think Andujar, Bird, Frazier, Sanchez, Tanaka all have risk factors that make them GM killers. Potential could be great. As in All Star great. But all have gaps that deserve back up options in the minors.
Who knows? Maybe we really could a deal with the Mets or Baltimore.
We have front office talent we could trade to be part of the advisors surrounding the Wilpons or DAngelos. Randy Levine straight up for DeGrom or Machado. We can add Ellsbury or Shreve if the Mets or Orioles insist. (but only one of them...we dont want a Division or City rival getting too strong).
Levine is really good at making comments about star talent after bruising arbitration processes. Very motivating FO guy. And he is also good at assuring aging stars never leave. Ellsbury might chip in 60 games a year and someone has to pitch innings when the game is likely lost already.
Hidden Gems just waiting for an entreprenurial owner
He's made about $10 million so far in his career which means he's going to want to max his earnings as this will be his only chance.
Chapman will still be signed for more years so the closer spot with the Yankees won't be open.
The Yankees aren't going to offer him a qualifying offer which will be in the $18 million a year range, which means no draft compensation for the Yankees
Some team is going to offer him big money.
Add him to a package for DeGrom and the Mets get a high end closer who they could flip for even more prospects, and the Yankees don't lose him for nothing. That might allow the Yankees to keep Sheffield or Frazier. An all star bullpen piece has good value.
He's made about $10 million so far in his career which means he's going to want to max his earnings as this will be his only chance.
Chapman will still be signed for more years so the closer spot with the Yankees won't be open.
The Yankees aren't going to offer him a qualifying offer which will be in the $18 million a year range, which means no draft compensation for the Yankees
Some team is going to offer him big money.
Add him to a package for DeGrom and the Mets get a high end closer who they could flip for even more prospects, and the Yankees don't lose him for nothing. That might allow the Yankees to keep Sheffield or Frazier. An all star bullpen piece has good value.
The Mets would have absolutely no interest in Betances. If they deal DeGrom it signals a rebuild. They aren't paying Betances for 1 year and then giving him an extension at 32 years old. Excellent pitcher but not a fit at all. If they deal DeGrom it's going to be for players with 5-6 years of control.