In today's off-day exercise, you get to pick one and only one player to target for a trade and you have to say what you would give up in return. You can shoot for the moon with a guy like DeGrom and be willing to give up some premium value in return (if you're being reasonable) or target one of the half-year rentals like Hamels and offer up a lot less (but it will still take more than just a limited package like Adams and Mckinney). What does the algorithm in your head project as the best do-able deal for the Yankees? My current thinking (subject to change on a daily basis)...
Target: Syndergaard
Compensation: Frazier, Drury, Sheffield, Abreu.
I know, I know, that's a lot to give up. But if it's not painful, it's not realistic.
From the Yankees perspective
--They are getting a proven, top-of-the-rotation, 25-year old with 3 1/2 years left of team control who will slot right in as the #2 starter behind Severino (and they didn't have to give up Torres, Andujar, or Florial). Think about how huge it would be to have two young aces under team control until 2022! The only downside is Syndergaard's history of injuries, but that's all part of the equation that makes him available for a manageable/reasonable price tag.
--They are giving up two young position players who have proven they belong in the Majors, but are buried on the Yankees depth chart; and two of their top pitching prospects, one in Triple A, the other in single A. It's the pitchers that make it painful for the Yankees, but no pain, no gain; and while the two check in as the team's top two pitching prospects according to MLB. com, I'm not convinced they're all that more likely to reach stardom than some of the other arms in the system like Medina, Loaisiga, Stephan, Sauer, Schmidt, Whitlock, and more. Sheffield tops the list based on probability of success, not necessarily upside.
From the Mets perspective
--They are getting two young, starting quality position players under team control (Frazier for five more years, Drury for three) and two very highly regarded pitching prospects, one of whom is ready to make his major league debut (and should slot in right away as a mid-rotation guy), the other just a year or two away (with a fastball that reaches triple digits and two other plus pitches). How often do you get that combination of production and potential without having to give up your veteran #1 starter (DeGrom)?
--They are giving up something that no team ever wants to give up, a young, proven, top-of-rotation pitcher still with years of team control. And to their cross-town rival.
p.s.--I'm not sure how often teams package more than four players in a trade for just one in return, but I would be willing to add another player or two to sweeten the deal: i.e., German, Adams, Acevedo, or one of the established middle-relievers (hopefully not Green or Holder, I love them, but not enough to stand in the way of a deal for Syndergaard).
I kinda think he's more of a threat to Shreve than anyone else for this season.
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he's going to be a free agent next year when he'll turn 31.
He's made about $10 million so far in his career which means he's going to want to max his earnings as this will be his only chance.
Chapman will still be signed for more years so the closer spot with the Yankees won't be open.
The Yankees aren't going to offer him a qualifying offer which will be in the $18 million a year range, which means no draft compensation for the Yankees
Some team is going to offer him big money.
Add him to a package for DeGrom and the Mets get a high end closer who they could flip for even more prospects, and the Yankees don't lose him for nothing. That might allow the Yankees to keep Sheffield or Frazier. An all star bullpen piece has good value.
The Mets would have absolutely no interest in Betances. If they deal DeGrom it signals a rebuild. They aren't paying Betances for 1 year and then giving him an extension at 32 years old. Excellent pitcher but not a fit at all. If they deal DeGrom it's going to be for players with 5-6 years of control.
they could trade him for more prospects.
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Eh?
Insisting? That's a funny way to put it. And as I see it, I'm not clearing the farm, I'm finding a way for the Yankees to add a young, All-Star quality pitcher (who will be $-friendly through 2021) without having to clear it. What you see as half-empty, I see as half-full. They get to keep Torres and Andujar, they get to keep Florial, they get to keep Medina, Stephan, Whitlock, Loaisiga, Sauer, Schmidt, Perriera, Perez, Acevedo, Estrada, Adams (who may never be a starter, but could turn out to be a valuable relief pitcher). The success of the recent graduates like Sanchez, Severino, Judge, Torres, and Andujar means the farm system can withstand the hit from the loss of Frazier, Sheffield, etc. (just as it's withstood the loss of Mateo, Rutherford, Kaprielian, Fowler, Guzman, etc.)
I keep Sheffield. He should be up by September.
Those high end low level guys are the ones that we can dangle. Florial, Medina, Abreu, Drury, Perez, etc.
Ideally Frazier replaces Gardner next season. I only deal him for a deGrom. Not sure where the belief that he's no longer a prospect bc he lost prospect eligibility came from.
Yeah, i dont think people grasp that the Yankees think they can win in the playoffs with 5 inning starts and a lights out bullpen - which they have
The spread between Florial’s ceiling and his 2018 to date is way too wide to consider trading him now.
You’re talking about a guy that could easily be a top 25 prospect in a year. He was well on his way there, looked great in ST, but then a slow minors season start plus an injury and he’s on the shelf and less thought of.
Lets face it: there isn't a starting pitcher out there we can get. The Mets aren't going to deal deGrom or Syndergard to the Yanks and Madbum isn't going anywhere. If they do get a middling pitcher, who comes out of the rotation ? German ? Lasagna?. I'd rather stretch out Warren, Cessa or Cole and hold on to our prospects than take a crapshoot on someone thats likely to be no better than Gray.
Abreu and Tate are clearer candidates to be moved. Both reasonably healthy and performing, close but not on the doorstep. Abreu has Sheff upside, maybe even higher, but clearly neither has the trade value that Sheff does. Acevedo has been okay and could potentially be a 2nd piece in a deal too.
Lets face it: there isn't a starting pitcher out there we can get. The Mets aren't going to deal deGrom or Syndergard to the Yanks and Madbum isn't going anywhere. If they do get a middling pitcher, who comes out of the rotation ? German ? Lasagna?. I'd rather stretch out Warren, Cessa or Cole and hold on to our prospects than take a crapshoot on someone thats likely to be no better than Gray.
Jose Abreu would be a great 1b target for the Yankees. He's having a bad month but 130 wRC+ March/April and 149 in May. Kind of guy who comes to the Yankees and goes bonkers.
I really think a mid-level SP (and perhaps exploring an option @ 1B if Bird just can't get it together - but I still think he will in time) will be enough. Sheffield can be a BP option later in the year - a LHP is needed there (Shreve is garbage)
Keep the kids - don't empty half the farm for one guy. All that does is shorten the potential window which is potentially very large right now.
I really think a mid-level SP (and perhaps exploring an option @ 1B if Bird just can't get it together - but I still think he will in time) will be enough. Sheffield can be a BP option later in the year - a LHP is needed there (Shreve is garbage)
Keep the kids - don't empty half the farm for one guy. All that does is shorten the potential window which is potentially very large right now.
because Betances is more replaceable, and his value takes a bigger dip if he's traded this off-season or at the deadline next year. I'm not saying I want to trade him, but I really don't want to lose him for nothing which is what happens if we wait. no chance he resigns with the Yankees.
Ah!! They problems of wealth.
Cashman turned Beltran, Miller, and Chapman, into making the rest of the league their farm system.
I can understand that comparison but Sevy is so much more of a complete pitcher than Thor. Sevy wants to get you out. He's not afraid to rely on his slider or change up if its dominant that night.
Thor seems to me to want to strike everyone out and is more a thrower than pitcher. He gets his pitch count up high too often for my liking by wanting the K so much.
I think the comparison is there because of their great velocity but it stops there for me.
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I don't understand why anyone would want to move Betances right now in a year where the team can win a World Series. Bullpens are crucial more than ever in October now and he's an elite SU man.
I really think a mid-level SP (and perhaps exploring an option @ 1B if Bird just can't get it together - but I still think he will in time) will be enough. Sheffield can be a BP option later in the year - a LHP is needed there (Shreve is garbage)
Keep the kids - don't empty half the farm for one guy. All that does is shorten the potential window which is potentially very large right now.
because Betances is more replaceable, and his value takes a bigger dip if he's traded this off-season or at the deadline next year. I'm not saying I want to trade him, but I really don't want to lose him for nothing which is what happens if we wait. no chance he resigns with the Yankees.
But you have to think about the teams that would be looking to acquire a RP like Betances right now.
Anyone who wants to acquire him for a year and a half is obviously in win-now mode. We don't want to help Houson or Boston (or really any other AL team with playoff aspirations) and even if we send Betances to an NL team, that team isn't going to want to part with anything that can help now.
So, basically if you deal Betances now, our bullpen takes a hit and what we get in return probably will come in the form of prospects who are a year or two away.
It would be hard to find a good match.
yatqb : 11:12 am : link : reply
someone who can throw a shutout but won’t cost our top prospects.
The guy simply can't stay healthy. I'd rather have a middling inning eater than a guy with a higher ceiling who is going to be shelved.
I know it won't be cheap but I hope Cash is at least making a call to them. He'd lock down our pen while keeping him away from the other top AL teams needing a guy like him.
Plus he could be huge next year if we don't keep Robertson. If they kept Robbie then the pen is even deeper all year.
I know it won't be cheap but I hope Cash is at least making a call to them. He'd lock down our pen while keeping him away from the other top AL teams needing a guy like him.
Plus he could be huge next year if we don't keep Robertson. If they kept Robbie then the pen is even deeper all year.
Still reportedly asking for "tier 1" prospects and they will get it. Amazing/team friendly deal. Not sure the 2 teams matchup all that well.
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I know they asked for Devers to start from the Sox but I believe that's because the Sox don't have enough top prospects to offer.
I know it won't be cheap but I hope Cash is at least making a call to them. He'd lock down our pen while keeping him away from the other top AL teams needing a guy like him.
Plus he could be huge next year if we don't keep Robertson. If they kept Robbie then the pen is even deeper all year.
Still reportedly asking for "tier 1" prospects and they will get it. Amazing/team friendly deal. Not sure the 2 teams matchup all that well.
Yeah I'm sure it'll be an expensive deal for whoever gets him if he's dealt at all. I'd be up for trading some top prospects for him though. Just a matter of who and how many.
Hopefully at the very least Cash showing interest would drive the price up for a team like the Astros. About time someone else paid a Yankee type tax to get a player.
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to the middle of the rotation why would we even bother with this trade?
Because I'm not satisfied adding to the middle of the rotation, I want to add to the top of the rotation. That's where the hole exists. Someone who can push Tanaka into the #3 spot, not someone who will fall in behind Tanaka.
I guess I just don’t see the upside being worth it. I like Syndergaard but his injury history worrisome. He’s never even come close to 200 innings and would be moving to the AL East. I simply don’t do this trade.
I really wouldn't try to trade for Syndergaard. Something tells me the ROI wouldn't be worth it.
I really wouldn't try to trade for Syndergaard. Something tells me the ROI wouldn't be worth it.
Giants have no reason to move relievers. They are 2 games out of the WC and Watson has an insanely good deal (Smith as well).
I really wouldn't try to trade for Syndergaard. Something tells me the ROI wouldn't be worth it.
Your a yankees fan now?
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If we're looking for a reliever, I still think I'd call SF about Smith or Watson. Would probably be slightly cheaper than Hand.
I really wouldn't try to trade for Syndergaard. Something tells me the ROI wouldn't be worth it.
Giants have no reason to move relievers. They are 2 games out of the WC and Watson has an insanely good deal (Smith as well).
I don't think they're going to be buyers at the deadline, but maybe I'm wrong. They're not good enough to contend and can probably get a decent haul for one of those two relievers.
1. Player X will cost too much to acquire
2. Team X isn't going to want to trade Player X
3. Player X isn't good enough to trade for or no one wants to give up what it'll cost to acquire him
So, these threads are usually exercises in futility.
People "in the know" seem to think the Mets have no interest in trading with the Yankees or would need everything that isn't nailed down plus some more to trade for deGrom/Syndegaard. I also don't see the Giants trading Bumgarner considering they've barely had him and yet they're still close to the division and wild card leaders. Outside of those guys, there doesn't seem to be any other elite pitchers possibly available. I think Chris Archer could turn it around in a winning environment, but I'm sure they would want much more than I'd be willing to give up when you take his recent numbers into account.
I think we'll have to be looking for JA Happ-types. I have zero interest in Brad Hand if the rumors of what the Padres are asking for is true. Besides, we really don't need him anyway.
I would not however trade him for a package that didn't involve getting help this year.
Keep in mind that the roster crunch will not be as bad this winter, as the Yanks have a number of roster spots coming open. Gardner, CC, DRob, Walker and Warren all hit FA this winter.
AJ Cole is out of options and might be non-tendered. Cessa is also out of options and might be traded or non-tendered. Ben Heller might be out of options and may well be taken off the 40 man roster as he had TJ surgery and will miss a good portion of 2019 as well. Shreve will lose his roster spot- but may be gone before the season is over.
Torreyes is out of options and might be non-tendered as the Yanks have other choices who do have options- Wade, Avelino, etc.
At the same time, the Yanks must add back Ellsbury and Montgomery from the 60 day DL. They don't count on the 40 while on the 60 day DL, but once the season ends, all teams must add back players on the 60 day DL to the 40 man roster or expose them to waivers.
That means that somewhere between 5 and 8 spots will open on the 40 man roster when all is said and done this fall.
Looking ahead to this winter, as best I can tell, the following would need to be added or eligible. I will start with the most likely to be added to the roster.
The first tier of Adams, Tate, Sheffield and Carroll are the most likely adds.
The next tier (IMO) are Avelino, Feyereisen, Rogers and Swanson. Rogers and Swanson are not high-end guys, but both could be ML SP and have some value that would likely result in someone targetting them.
After that, there are a lot of guys who are eligible, but really don't appear necessary to add (because they would be unlikely to stick or are not appealing).
That group includes: Espinal, Gomez, Mesa (who got picked and didn't stick last year), Tarpley, Gittens, Hendrix, Green, Crawford and Perez.
Some of those guys have been injured a lot, others have taken a step back this year. Others don't project as major leaguers.
Of course, the Yanks can always make trades that thin the group or take away roster spots. However, the Yanks SHOULD be able to protect the key players they do not want to lose without too much effort.
I have zero interest in Brad Hand if the rumors of what the Padres are asking for is true. Besides, we really don't need him anyway.
We don't? You can't be happy with Shreve being the only leftie in the pen besides Chapman.
Plus Hand helps not only this year and going forward especially if we don't keep Robertson but maybe just as important, we keep him away from the other AL contenders. He helps us by making the pen even stronger and can't hurt us pitching for someone else. Win/Win IMO.
Like I said earlier though, it really depends on what the cost is. I'd give up a decent amount for him but not go overboard.
I know it won't be cheap but I hope Cash is at least making a call to them. He'd lock down our pen while keeping him away from the other top AL teams needing a guy like him.
THIS! +1
Helps us, hurts the competition.
Plus he could be huge next year if we don't keep Robertson. If they kept Robbie then the pen is even deeper all year.