For those with some understanding of economics and how our country currently stands (National Debt is HUGE), I have a question: what would it take for the US economy to crumble almost overnight?
a Carrington Event "inevitable". If one were to hit today it would be devastating. But in the historical perspective, the window for it causing damage is quite small.
If it had hit in the 1300's for example, the impact would be negligible. If it hits in 2200, it might be too. We don't know where technology will advance to. There may come a day where the technology used is EMP-proof or at least where the impact will be minimal.
Saying something in inevitable implies that it will certainly happen without any way to avoid it.
Massive solar events haven't fried the grid before, either Â
They've taken out large swaths, without a doubt. And I'm sure it would be no picnic if a large section of the grid near a major metropolitan took a hit. But even though a recovery would be expensive and painstaking, it wouldn't be catastrophic.
RE: FMIC hit it....A massive extended power grid failure Â
Either due to terrorism or a massive Geomagnetic Storm (solar storm) which damages a significant portion of the power grid. Imagine the NE US without power for several days or weeks.
Yes. Powerful well placed EMPs could cause havoc to not just the economy but all electronic devices.
The question is whether we will be adequately prepared when it occurs, and if not, how much damage it will do. Those are unknowns, but there doesn't seem to be much concern about it, despite the 2012 near miss, which would have been much stronger than the original CE in 1859. It's also likely to do enough damage to significantly damage large sections of the grid.
Heck, even from the article, it points out that the probability of a solar storm with at least the power of the Carrington Event hitting Earth is only 12 percent.
Solar storms with less effect may not do much harm at all. Even Carrington Events could hve limited impact depending where they hit.
Quote:
Like many natural phenomena, the frequency with which solar storms take place scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event. But the sheer number of large storms over the last 150 years suggests the Carrington Event is unlikely to be an isolated occurrence.
Calculations by solar scientist Pete Riley, at Predictive Science Inc, suggest the probability of a solar storm of at least the power of the Carrington Event hitting Earth in the next 10 years is around 12 percent (“On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events”, February 2012).
While not high, a 12 percent probability hardly qualifies as a “low-frequency” or remote-probability event.
As stated - it shouldn't be classified as a remote-possibility event. It also shouldn't be classified as inevitable.
I do have emergency supplies and equipment set aside, along with a "go bag", in the event of substantial civil turmoil or the need to evacuate the DC metro region.
The reasons I had in mind for setting my family up with these emergency supplies have mostly already been discussed: a dangerous pandemic, a large and lengthy power outage, significant disruption in the food supply chain, political disturbances leading to open conflict.
Any of those could cause a dramatic contraction in economic activity, and potentially structural collapse of the banking system.
RE: RE: Dan - How is a comment about the US Government Â
I didn't mention anything about a political party, a political policy, a politician, or a branch, division, appointment, or even a function of the government. The government is a system made up of many entities, but not all of it is political. At least not that I'm aware of in the sense that has been banned here.
Serious question - is the Post Office political? What about the military, or the labor department or the federal reserve? Perhaps within certain contexts I suppose, especially when discussing policy or other news-related controversies.
And it's not that I didn't only not mention any of the banned items but I didn't insinuate or hint at any either. My intent/viewpoint was an entirely apolitical one, just a historical one. I'm surprised it offended anyone and/or surprised that it crossed the boundary for what is allowed. I honestly did not intend to do that - only wanted to discuss potential risks to our nation's economy and prosperity from a historical perspective.
Sorry for breaking the rules. I guess I couldn't help myself.
Dan, I'm not going to continue this debate at length -- but you made critical comments about the government. The only logical extension/inference from there is who's in power that runs it - and that's the very the nature of politics, because politicians are elected to be in charge of government.
Also I'll note that it's a lot easier for us to just delete a thread that's straying into politics then get involved in this kind of discussion of what exactly was political about what you said. I believe it was political for you to criticize government.
We deleted comments that could be construed as political from the thread so it could stay up. Is that an acceptable solution? From our perspective hairs can always be split over our judgment -- and now this thread is becoming an opportunity to discuss what the moderators did to it - oy vey!
12% per decade. Major CMEs also happened in 1859, 1921, and 2012. That's enough to say it's inevitable. It's also inevitable that the Yellowstone caldera will erupt, and a meteor the size of the one that wiped out the dinosaurs will again hit Earth. But those events are extremely infrequent. CMEs happen with enough regularity that we should be concerned.
What is not inevitable is catastrophic damage. That could be avoided if we were prepared. But the general lack of concern suggests that we won't be. We're not likely to spend the billions required to prepare for and prevent the damage.
all solar storms are CEs, but the one that missed in 2012 was even stronger than than the CE in 1859. We are also so grossly underprepared that even a CME that wasn't quite as strong as the CEs of 1859 or 2012 would still likely do a significant amount of damage. And at some point we will be hit by a CME as strong as the CEs from 1859 or 2012, and not in a 1,000 years.
Sorry, I didn't think I was criticizing this or any other government.. Â
I thought I was answering a hypothetical question about what would bring the economy down, and by extension bring the government down.
Used to be I worried about unintentionally offending posters, now I'm unintentionally offending moderators. I respect you a lot, it's a thankless job, one that I wouldn't want.
It's in these situations that I'm reminded how much better off I am when I lurk and not post. Everyone else too I imagine. I don't think I contribute anything of value here anyway.
Interesting. The Chinese are the "biggest" threat to America or so I've been told.
I have an MBA but it was in Human Resources not Finance / Economics. I'm in the midst of a discussion with folks about our future as a country. I've been "told" that the Chinese would be cutting their own throats as much as ours if they worked to unfold us. But I'm not sure exactly how and such which is why I ask.
When you sell anything 'in mass', the price goes down, and the value of your remaining bonds are worth less than they were.
RE: Sorry, I didn't think I was criticizing this or any other government.. Â
I thought I was answering a hypothetical question about what would bring the economy down, and by extension bring the government down.
Used to be I worried about unintentionally offending posters, now I'm unintentionally offending moderators. I respect you a lot, it's a thankless job, one that I wouldn't want.
It's in these situations that I'm reminded how much better off I am when I lurk and not post. Everyone else too I imagine. I don't think I contribute anything of value here anyway.
Dan - you are a respected poster on this website (especially when it comes to football), that's why I'm taking the time to try and explain this. However respectfully -- please email me if you wish to discuss this further
RE: RE: Sorry, I didn't think I was criticizing this or any other government.. Â
Dan - you are a respected poster on this website (especially when it comes to football), that's why I'm taking the time to try and explain this. However respectfully -- please email me if you wish to discuss this further
Dan,
don't do it. He only wants you to email him so he can get your personal info to stalk you, then seduce you. I fell for it once. He's relentless.
So, in summary, from my perspective and understanding Â
While any global pandemic or catastrophe could plunge us into a deep depression or worse, overall, the United States actually isn't in bad standing when compared to countries like say China.
So should our goal be to reduce national debt or just keep going like we have been cause other countries essentially will still use us as Reserve currency? (I ask "tongue in cheek" almost.....)
I think we need to address WASTE and overhaul our IRS tax system, but hey, its just my little ole opinion. :)
The dollar will not continue to be the world's reserve currency Â
Its more likely that as China becomes the worlds largest economy and the world's dominant force in trade, whether it's "free market" or not, that their currency will replace ours.
RE: The dollar will not continue to be the world's reserve currency Â
Its more likely that as China becomes the worlds largest economy and the world's dominant force in trade, whether it's "free market" or not, that their currency will replace ours.
It is certainly possible that this could occur. My friend Vinny was a hedge fund owner and had an office on Park place until a few years ago when he sold his business.
One thing he did tell me is that "China is a MESS...corrupt..." so if they ever fix their internal issues and get to where the world can trust (have FAITH) that they will REPAY than yeah, I guess anything is possible.
RE: RE: FMIC hit it....A massive extended power grid failure Â
Either due to terrorism or a massive Geomagnetic Storm (solar storm) which damages a significant portion of the power grid. Imagine the NE US without power for several days or weeks.
The market remained closed after 9-11 for a almost a week.
So in your scenario, the outage would have to last more than a week?
I was going to toss in this same answer -- but I don't think it would take a week for this to crash the market. Crashing the economy as a whole is something else again. If the outage was for several weeks -- kind of unimaginable -- that would probably do it.
RE: The dollar will not continue to be the world's reserve currency Â
Its more likely that as China becomes the worlds largest economy and the world's dominant force in trade, whether it's "free market" or not, that their currency will replace ours.
Between the shale/oil boom and our influence with the Saudis, the rest of the world will still need to play nice with us. (in my non-expert opinion)
RE: RE: The dollar will not continue to be the world's reserve currency Â
Its more likely that as China becomes the worlds largest economy and the world's dominant force in trade, whether it's "free market" or not, that their currency will replace ours.
Between the shale/oil boom and our influence with the Saudis, the rest of the world will still need to play nice with us. (in my non-expert opinion)
This was referenced in an article on my news feed this morning...
Quote:
Nasa estimates the total value of resources locked in space rocks is £522 quintillion - equivalent to £75 billion ($100 billion) for each person on Earth.
A company could send a small space probe to intersect with asteroids as they pass near Earth, and mine them for these resources.
Experts have warned that doing so may destroy commodity prices and cause the world's economy to collapse.
PS: I thought of this thread when I read the above... but I guess it wouldn't cause the US economy to crumble "overnight" unless the asteroid crashed into earth. Link - ( New Window )
Underfunded military? Where did you come up with that one?
As an example of what brought down paste world powers and could be a major factor in what could bring down the US economy? I think it is a major factor. Again, He who has the biggest stick makes the rules.
If it had hit in the 1300's for example, the impact would be negligible. If it hits in 2200, it might be too. We don't know where technology will advance to. There may come a day where the technology used is EMP-proof or at least where the impact will be minimal.
Saying something in inevitable implies that it will certainly happen without any way to avoid it.
Yes. Powerful well placed EMPs could cause havoc to not just the economy but all electronic devices.
The question is whether we will be adequately prepared when it occurs, and if not, how much damage it will do. Those are unknowns, but there doesn't seem to be much concern about it, despite the 2012 near miss, which would have been much stronger than the original CE in 1859. It's also likely to do enough damage to significantly damage large sections of the grid.
Link - ( New Window )
Heck, even from the article, it points out that the probability of a solar storm with at least the power of the Carrington Event hitting Earth is only 12 percent.
Solar storms with less effect may not do much harm at all. Even Carrington Events could hve limited impact depending where they hit.
Calculations by solar scientist Pete Riley, at Predictive Science Inc, suggest the probability of a solar storm of at least the power of the Carrington Event hitting Earth in the next 10 years is around 12 percent (“On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events”, February 2012).
While not high, a 12 percent probability hardly qualifies as a “low-frequency” or remote-probability event.
As stated - it shouldn't be classified as a remote-possibility event. It also shouldn't be classified as inevitable.
The reasons I had in mind for setting my family up with these emergency supplies have mostly already been discussed: a dangerous pandemic, a large and lengthy power outage, significant disruption in the food supply chain, political disturbances leading to open conflict.
Any of those could cause a dramatic contraction in economic activity, and potentially structural collapse of the banking system.
Quote:
not political?
I didn't mention anything about a political party, a political policy, a politician, or a branch, division, appointment, or even a function of the government. The government is a system made up of many entities, but not all of it is political. At least not that I'm aware of in the sense that has been banned here.
Serious question - is the Post Office political? What about the military, or the labor department or the federal reserve? Perhaps within certain contexts I suppose, especially when discussing policy or other news-related controversies.
And it's not that I didn't only not mention any of the banned items but I didn't insinuate or hint at any either. My intent/viewpoint was an entirely apolitical one, just a historical one. I'm surprised it offended anyone and/or surprised that it crossed the boundary for what is allowed. I honestly did not intend to do that - only wanted to discuss potential risks to our nation's economy and prosperity from a historical perspective.
Sorry for breaking the rules. I guess I couldn't help myself.
Dan, I'm not going to continue this debate at length -- but you made critical comments about the government. The only logical extension/inference from there is who's in power that runs it - and that's the very the nature of politics, because politicians are elected to be in charge of government.
Also I'll note that it's a lot easier for us to just delete a thread that's straying into politics then get involved in this kind of discussion of what exactly was political about what you said. I believe it was political for you to criticize government.
We deleted comments that could be construed as political from the thread so it could stay up. Is that an acceptable solution? From our perspective hairs can always be split over our judgment -- and now this thread is becoming an opportunity to discuss what the moderators did to it - oy vey!
What is not inevitable is catastrophic damage. That could be avoided if we were prepared. But the general lack of concern suggests that we won't be. We're not likely to spend the billions required to prepare for and prevent the damage.
Link - ( New Window )
Not all solar storms are Carrington Events.
It isn't inevitable that a Carrington Event will hit. Likely, not inevitable.
Used to be I worried about unintentionally offending posters, now I'm unintentionally offending moderators. I respect you a lot, it's a thankless job, one that I wouldn't want.
It's in these situations that I'm reminded how much better off I am when I lurk and not post. Everyone else too I imagine. I don't think I contribute anything of value here anyway.
Quote:
.
Interesting. The Chinese are the "biggest" threat to America or so I've been told.
I have an MBA but it was in Human Resources not Finance / Economics. I'm in the midst of a discussion with folks about our future as a country. I've been "told" that the Chinese would be cutting their own throats as much as ours if they worked to unfold us. But I'm not sure exactly how and such which is why I ask.
When you sell anything 'in mass', the price goes down, and the value of your remaining bonds are worth less than they were.
Used to be I worried about unintentionally offending posters, now I'm unintentionally offending moderators. I respect you a lot, it's a thankless job, one that I wouldn't want.
It's in these situations that I'm reminded how much better off I am when I lurk and not post. Everyone else too I imagine. I don't think I contribute anything of value here anyway.
Dan - you are a respected poster on this website (especially when it comes to football), that's why I'm taking the time to try and explain this. However respectfully -- please email me if you wish to discuss this further
Dan - you are a respected poster on this website (especially when it comes to football), that's why I'm taking the time to try and explain this. However respectfully -- please email me if you wish to discuss this further
Dan,
don't do it. He only wants you to email him so he can get your personal info to stalk you, then seduce you. I fell for it once. He's relentless.
So should our goal be to reduce national debt or just keep going like we have been cause other countries essentially will still use us as Reserve currency? (I ask "tongue in cheek" almost.....)
I think we need to address WASTE and overhaul our IRS tax system, but hey, its just my little ole opinion. :)
Its more likely that as China becomes the worlds largest economy and the world's dominant force in trade, whether it's "free market" or not, that their currency will replace ours.
Its more likely that as China becomes the worlds largest economy and the world's dominant force in trade, whether it's "free market" or not, that their currency will replace ours.
One thing he did tell me is that "China is a MESS...corrupt..." so if they ever fix their internal issues and get to where the world can trust (have FAITH) that they will REPAY than yeah, I guess anything is possible.
Quote:
Either due to terrorism or a massive Geomagnetic Storm (solar storm) which damages a significant portion of the power grid. Imagine the NE US without power for several days or weeks.
The market remained closed after 9-11 for a almost a week.
So in your scenario, the outage would have to last more than a week?
Its more likely that as China becomes the worlds largest economy and the world's dominant force in trade, whether it's "free market" or not, that their currency will replace ours.
Between the shale/oil boom and our influence with the Saudis, the rest of the world will still need to play nice with us. (in my non-expert opinion)
Quote:
If we decline to be a prominent trading partner.
Its more likely that as China becomes the worlds largest economy and the world's dominant force in trade, whether it's "free market" or not, that their currency will replace ours.
Between the shale/oil boom and our influence with the Saudis, the rest of the world will still need to play nice with us. (in my non-expert opinion)
Nasa estimates the total value of resources locked in space rocks is £522 quintillion - equivalent to £75 billion ($100 billion) for each person on Earth.
A company could send a small space probe to intersect with asteroids as they pass near Earth, and mine them for these resources.
Experts have warned that doing so may destroy commodity prices and cause the world's economy to collapse.
PS: I thought of this thread when I read the above... but I guess it wouldn't cause the US economy to crumble "overnight" unless the asteroid crashed into earth.
Link - ( New Window )
No way, man! - ( New Window )
As an example of what brought down paste world powers and could be a major factor in what could bring down the US economy? I think it is a major factor. Again, He who has the biggest stick makes the rules.
Quote:
that becomes a worldwide pandemic would cripple the economy.
No way, man! - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14001734 bw in dc said:
Quote:
that becomes a worldwide pandemic would cripple the economy.
No way, man! - ( New Window )
Any pandemic / major illness which kills millions or billions would certainly crash economies, including ours.
Disagree on a medical cause. That opens the door for big pharmas to make big money among other industries.
Dan,
don't do it. He only wants you to email him so he can get your personal info to stalk you, then seduce you. I fell for it once. He's relentless.
Bill Cosby does it by e-mail now too...
Aside from maybe Switzerland, I cannot think of another. And even they have a military for border defense.
But I agree with your sentiment.