things-
-Rosario and Smith have been so bad that the Mets need to really finally take a look in the mirror and realize they are not getting it done in terms of development. They pretty publicly blamed Lopez last year for Smith and Rosario coming up and being so ill-prepared...aka they saw their rookies weren't coming up ready to do what they had to do... and now this season both look lost. Look how many teams have young players come up and perform almost immediately. I don't think much of Dom Smith but Rosario should not be this raw/this bad at this stage given his talent. They must make substantial additions to the analytics and scouting. Omar, Ricco whomever... MUST convince the Wilpons of the value of this. 2 independent sources both told me the Mets FO and in particular analytics departments are possibly the thinnest in the entire league. That is not acceptable. There is no defending this
-Reyes should be released.
-McNeil should be with the big club. He's had an incredible season and both the team and fans deserve something positive added
-Blevins, Cabrera, Frazier, Familia, Mesoraco should all be traded. I know PJ prefers giving Familia a QO if they don't get a great offer, they simply aren't going to do that so negotiate the most you can get for these guys and move on.
-Aggressively shop DeGrom and Thor.... for ABSURD packages. That doesn't mean you deal them. It means YOU do the groundwork, YOU shoot for the stars. The Padres in particularly could put together a franchise altering package. White Sox (also rumored to be interested) also have that capability. Fernando Tatis Jr. (for example) could be a superstar on the level of Reyes or Wright as soon as next season
- Aggressively shop Matz and Wheeler. Again, same thought process. Very weak SP market... don't just assume you can't land xyz. Just ask.
- Be open to dealing Wilmer despite him being a fan favorite. Wilmer is a solid player but if someone wants to give you a nice cost controlled young player or 2 with 6 years of control he's easily replaceable.
-Be open to moving on from Callaway. I'm not losing my mind over a manager but he seems over his head. If the Mets really do go outside the organization for a GM (I very much doubt this happens) they MUST allow this new guy to have the power to can Mickey. Anyone brought in who has the manager forced upon him =balls already in the Wilpon vice.
- Call the Yankees and ask to speak to Oppenheimer. They may yet say no but Cashman actually is very close with Omar and knows Ricco well. It's not out of the question that they allow a long time employee leave for a major job as a personal courtesy.
Sometimes I wonder why the Mets are unable to say the right things. What is the value of this statement? Who doesn't want to get younger and more athletic? Might not be able to? Why bother even stating this? It's so Mets
The Mets need a professional competent GM and Manager ASAP. They need a GM from outside the organization.
Mets should move on from Callaway and do everything possible to land Girardi.
This is a much better situation than it was last time - especially if you factor in the impending Madoff crisis. If they find the right people it shouldn't take 5 years to turn things around.
This is a much better situation than it was last time - especially if you factor in the impending Madoff crisis. If they find the right people it shouldn't take 5 years to turn things around.
I'd really like to see them view this as a 2 year process and not obsess with putting together an "okay" team next year. Team surprise sometimes but I'd be treating next year as a rebuild as much a big market team can (the Yankees did this last year and surprised people)
Instead of having a plan and finding players that fit the plan for 3-5 years, every year it was a stop gap. Need a 2B get Walker for 1 year, maybe 2. Need a little more offense? Bruce is cheap and low risk. Duda as a placeholder for a truly good 1B. Cabrera was a placeholder. Cuddyer. Frazier. On and on.
Not only in most of those cases were those guys a waste of money, but they also sometimes displaced younger guys who could have been longer term building blocks like Nimmo and Conforto.
The reason to not trade him is however likely you think it is that he's the next max scherzer and age well through his 30's. There's no way to predict that with certainty, but if you think he's going to be 1 of the small handful of cy young contenders over the next 4-5 years you resign him now while you can because at any point in time there are always going to be a small handful that have them and 20+ teams looking for them.
Emma Span
Verified account @emmaspan
2h2 hours ago
There are many amazing facts here, including that, by one measure, Jacob deGrom is the unluckiest pitcher since the mound was moved in 1893. "Every five days, Ill look at his latest game, and Ill shake my head and say, That poor bastard,'" says one exec
Theres going to be several debates, trading Thor/DeGrom is not one of them thankfully theres clear agreement there. Disagreement is one side is pushing for hidden gems about to blossom vs more major league ready. Ex a guy scratching the top 100 lists who could be top 50within a year vs a high floor low ceiling player who can contribute or provide depth within a year. My strong preference is swing for the fences here, but is the database prepared for that? Not at all...
Second debate is the push to make moves ASAP or wait. Im strongly convinced the move now is right. I think the deadline will be flooded with average players being sold. Second is offer to eat full contract right now. That incentives buyers from buying earlier - get the player now wpithout having to oay a penny in salary vs wait a month while risking losing an extra game or two and having to pay another player acquisitions salary. Lets see who wins out...
Last Quiet debate I hope wins out. Go for the swing for the fence types. Our lower minors have plenty of talent. If, and hopefully, the team is competing next year we will have PLENTY of ammo to trade for the big acquisition to put us over the top. You cant acquire that piece with high floor guys, only higher ceiling guys.
Nothing groundbreaking here. There are a ton of talks to judge who wants what and what value certain guys do and dont have (extremely low unfortunately). But fuck it, you gotta do something and start doing SOMETHING. Eat money, its a sunk cost open spots.
the only pause I have is the Mets should be better.
Even with a bad offense, they should be better than their record.
Like others though the other pause I have is the question of do the Mets have the right leader making the calls on trades. Not sure.
Sandy's record is a mixed bag, but Mauricio, Kelenic, etc. panning out sure would help him on the positive side, but it could be an Omar like thing where Sandy will be gone way before those contribute (like Harvey, deGrom, Familia, etc. did in 2015)
Also would call Browns re: Depo (not sure if you need to -- hard to see a noncompete that covers multiple sports).
Definitely shop (not necessarily trade) all starters -- I think Wheeler is better traded (if you do) in winter. He's pitched 86 IP in last 3 years (all last year, obviously) -- can't see him over 150 this year, leaving him with limited utility as a starter that you want to take into October.
Realize, as well, that no one is in a walk year -- so feel comfortable holding them until winter, especially if you plan to retool to FO -- if you do, trade the Familias and Cabreras of the world and let the new GM shop the prize chips.
I do not usually jump to manager conclusions -- but Callaway has lost the team. The same group (generally) never looked lost, exasperated, and disconsolate under TC in equally dicey circumstances.
I feel as though managers have been underrated -- yes, the strategic moves of any given manager aren't worth a ton of wins or losses in a given year -- but losing a team vs keeping them grinding over the season is a firing offense to me as soon as you see it.
Thanks for the thread, Metro. Always appreciate your insight.
the only pause I have is the Mets should be better.
Even with a bad offense, they should be better than their record.
Like others though the other pause I have is the question of do the Mets have the right leader making the calls on trades. Not sure.
Sandy's record is a mixed bag, but Mauricio, Kelenic, etc. panning out sure would help him on the positive side, but it could be an Omar like thing where Sandy will be gone way before those contribute (like Harvey, deGrom, Familia, etc. did in 2015)
Other than JDG and Thor there's nothing I'm afraid of them selling too cheaply, and I think they know there will be a riot if they mess up trading either of those 2. I think Sandy would have gotten a good return for Familia, now I'm not as sure, but he's part of a good FA class of relievers this offseason so whatever happens now isn't as important.
Re the first comment - they absolutely should be better than their record. This BP wasn't the strongest entering the season, but Callaway has been terrible. They lead the league in BP losses and are 2nd worst in BP war.
Also would call Browns re: Depo (not sure if you need to -- hard to see a noncompete that covers multiple sports).
Definitely shop (not necessarily trade) all starters -- I think Wheeler is better traded (if you do) in winter. He's pitched 86 IP in last 3 years (all last year, obviously) -- can't see him over 150 this year, leaving him with limited utility as a starter that you want to take into October.
Realize, as well, that no one is in a walk year -- so feel comfortable holding them until winter, especially if you plan to retool to FO -- if you do, trade the Familias and Cabreras of the world and let the new GM shop the prize chips.
I do not usually jump to manager conclusions -- but Callaway has lost the team. The same group (generally) never looked lost, exasperated, and disconsolate under TC in equally dicey circumstances.
I feel as though managers have been underrated -- yes, the strategic moves of any given manager aren't worth a ton of wins or losses in a given year -- but losing a team vs keeping them grinding over the season is a firing offense to me as soon as you see it.
Thanks for the thread, Metro. Always appreciate your insight.
Great post. I agree with the SP especially. There is zero need to rush to trade the SP unless you are truly getting an absurd package like Dan mentioned. All of them can still be dealt in the offseason and in Matz and Wheeler's cases, they might have even more value then (after proving health for the remainder of the year).
I'm in the camp that would prefer to keep the SP together unless the package was absolutely insane. Also, if I had to trade one of the big ace SP it would be deGrom. He's the oldest, He less control than Thor, and he also likely has the highest value right now making the package the greatest. Acting as if Thor is damaged goods or injury prone is fools gold. The guy had a muscle tear (that healed 100% and a strained finger. His elbow and shoulder have had zero issues and he's only 25. That's not to say he wont have anything happen in the future but his health should not be a concern at this point.
Rather not touch that one
Spend the money to do that, not winning the FA market.
Why throw millions at failed free agents when you can invest a quarter of that to improve your staff, scouts and analyst departments
One of the things I like most about baseball is watching young players develop. Other teams seem to bring up kids who are ready to play baseball the right way.
One of the things I like most about baseball is watching young players develop. Other teams seem to bring up kids who are ready to play baseball the right way.
Rosario was ranked that high as recently as last summer. I dont necessarily agree with Rosario and Smith being busts yet. They are both extremely young and not every prospect hits the ground running. Also, there is a history of prospects performing well right out of the gates over the last few years(Conforto his first year, Nimmo, and many of the starting pitchers). Again, not every young prospect hits the majors and is immediately good.
I think his defense will definitely improve. His bat? We'll see but I wouldnt expect much more than a league average offensive player for a year or two at best. You still take that if the D is there.
Smith hasn't flashed much of anything and he was never viewed as an elite prospect the way Rosario was. I think he's still got a few years before he's a bust the question is whether or not he's going to get that time here or somewhere else. With Alonso on his heels and the OF full, there's a lot on the line for him the rest of this year.
All fans are simplest creates on the planet. If the team wins they'll spend money and get excited. No one is buying a ticket to watch deGrom lose 2-1 every five days.
Since the Wilpon's spend so much time watching and worrying about the Yankees maybe they'll notice that the Yankees lost Jeter, Mariano, Posada, Cano etc in the past 5 years and they're more popular then they've ever been. That's because they have new young players and they are winning.
A question out to Mets fans:
On a scale of 1(very bad) and 10 (excellent):
How good/ bad trulyis their farm?
How good/bad is their coaching in the minors?
How many of their starting players are performing at the 1-5 range, and how many at 6-10?
Those q's aside, if they dumped Thor,DG, Cespedes, and whomever else for 'fair value' kids, whatever that is, would fans not show up until the kids become ',players'? Or would they play the kids and hope 2020/21 = 1969?
,auricio 3/6 3b 3 R and 4 RBI
Kelenic 2/4 BB 2B R and RBI
Im actually really liking how our top 10 is shaping up with Vientos, Kay, Szapucki, McNeil rounding it off in no specific order.
,auricio 3/6 3b 3 R and 4 RBI
Kelenic 2/4 BB 2B R and RBI
I mostly just follow mets minors and I know every org has good prospects that are exciting, but I can't imagine too many teams can feel as good about their top prospects performances this year. Peterson was the only guy on Laws preseason top 100 list and I think he's pretty clearly at best the 6th best prospect in the org right now, despite having a decent year.
Even with the recent slump, what Gimenez is doing at st lucie (just 10 months older than Kelenic) at a premium position is probably not getting the hype it deserves.
Im actually really liking how our top 10 is shaping up with Vientos, Kay, Szapucki, McNeil rounding it off in no specific order.
At 19 Gimenez is outperforming Rosario's 19 year old season at St Lucie pretty significantly. Most of his numbers (HR's, SB's, XBH) are better than Rosario's 20 year old season when he got promoted to AA. His profile as a more polished hitter also bodes well. And despite the fact that Rosario's athleticism was more hyped up, Gimenez seems to be translating far better stealing bases. Would love to hear shecky's thoughts, but I'd still have Gimenez at the top of the board, though Mauricio is making it a competition.
I really don't think Gimenez is that great a prospect. In other word, I think he could be a "solid" starter for a few years. But he is not going o be an all-star
Theres a couple guys struggling who are starting to put it together, or at least appear to be. Lets see if they develop strong the next couple months or not.
But bottom line is, let them develop. Ignore the stats, are they doing the little things? The immeasurable? What wont ever show up in a scouting report or a box score is Mauricio taking off to steal second, but slipping on his second step and getting back to first - catcher throws through to second anyway. One team has a smart player the other team doesnt. Thats developing a player and a system
Las Vegas - just another Jeff Wilpon Special.
Las Vegas - just another Jeff Wilpon Special.
I feel the same way but have no idea how much of it is real vs perception. Every time I see our prospects stats in Vegas I think about Cuddyer hitting .330 in Coors right before signing here. And that wasn't also jumping up a competition level.
Sit his ass. You dont want to play, then dont play. Someone else will
Sit his ass. You dont want to play, then dont play. Someone else will
Who are you referring to ?
Quote:
Never seen a guy out at first on a double play, by 80 feet.
Sit his ass. You dont want to play, then dont play. Someone else will
Who are you referring to ?
Has to be Cabrera. I didnt see it but he grounded into a double play in the top of the first.
Either way, no way in hell he sits because of it. This Mets team wrote the book on lack of accountability. Great leaders for all these young players.
And we wonder why this team sucks year in and year out.
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
7h7 hours ago
#Mets RHP Harol Gonzalez has been promoted to Las Vegas, following a successful run in St. Lucie. In 16 outings over two seasons there, he posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
Quote:
is such a detriment to the players that are called up. Its got to really mess with their head to tear it up in AAA only to come up to the pros and not have the ball fly off the bat the same way. And it could be a reason why our young players just dont seem to get over the hump. Glad to be getting outta there soon.
Las Vegas - just another Jeff Wilpon Special.
I feel the same way but have no idea how much of it is real vs perception. Every time I see our prospects stats in Vegas I think about Cuddyer hitting .330 in Coors right before signing here. And that wasn't also jumping up a competition level.
Its just too easy to develop bad habits hitting in vegas.
Prevost is out
The Mets need a professional competent GM and Manager ASAP. They need a GM from outside the organization.
Mets should move on from Callaway and do everything possible to land Girardi.
I really don't think this is on Callaway.
There's a definite problem with roster construction as well as development...players not being able to contribute when they get to the big leagues. But Nimmo is an obvious exception here.
Dan, I agree with your post. However, would it be wise for the Mets to try to extend Mesoraco? To me it seems he's the best catching option in the organization right now. They can probably get a deal done with him that works for both sides. I suppose d'Arnaud is eligible to return to the Mets next year, as this is an arb year, although I'm not real familiar with the arbitration rules. Could he simply become a free agent? Obviously, he can't be trusted to stay healthy and even when he has been healthy he hasn't produced at a level that would garner any confidence as a long-term solution at the position. What would the market be for trading Plawecki vs Mesoraco? I assume Mesoraco would bring slightly more, but really in both cases the Mets aren't getting back a significant return anyway, right? So why not try to bring back Mesoraco?
Cespedes is the one that is so frustrating, because if he had been playing, he could conceivably bring back a pretty good return, even if just one top prospect. But that's probably out given the long-term DL stints he's been on for the last few years.
Still, is there a chance the Mets could get a legit prospect for him if he is able to come back after the All-Star Break and perform at a high level for a few weeks until the deadline to a team that is going for it? Probably not going to happen since he's due about $59 million for the next two years, right?
If the Brewers believe he could still play short he would be a good add for them. If not, they aren't likely an option.
He would be a perfect fit for the D-Backs, especially if they don't swing the Machado trade.
This was surrounded by 7 years of bankrupt crap on one side and 3 years of bargain basement fails on the other.
In fact every era of Mets baseball since 1990 can be seen in this same cycle. they nearly assemble a complete team..only to bring in a lesser team the following seasons and begin their classic rebuilds again.
So does it really matter what they do? Id personally rather just see them keep their best players for once and just ride it out instead of a classic met rebuild. Maybe they will get lucky.
This was surrounded by 7 years of bankrupt crap on one side and 3 years of bargain basement fails on the other.
In fact every era of Mets baseball since 1990 can be seen in this same cycle. they nearly assemble a complete team..only to bring in a lesser team the following seasons and begin their classic rebuilds again.
So does it really matter what they do? Id personally rather just see them keep their best players for once and just ride it out instead of a classic met rebuild. Maybe they will get lucky.
You don't think other teams knew who the pitchers were on that 2015 team? It was Syndergaard's rookie year, but he was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, everyone knew what he was and the quality of his stuff. DeGrom won the rookie of the year the year before, he was no secret. Harvey was a known commodity for a couple of seasons. They got there because the pitching came together, they were pretty healthy, and Murphy carried them to the series. KC just wanted it more. It didn't have anything to do with sneaking up on anyone.
They screwed the pooch in not bringing back Murphy. I get that he got injured and he got off to a slow start this year, although he's starting to pick up, batting .265 in his last 9 with a HR and 5 RBI, but none of that erases his incredible 2016 and 2017 seasons, which were both outstanding. I mean, the Nats signed him for 3/$37.5 mil, which was a bargain. The Mets were supposedly in on Zobrist to the tune of 4 years, $60 million, and the Cubs got him for less money, but still at 4 years, $56 million.
So they threw a big offer at Zobrist, lost, and let Murphy go for less money, who is a better player, and who just came off one of the most memorable postseasons in club history. That should be remembered as Sandy's biggest gaffe, but for some reason most give him a pass for that.
I'm inclined to believe the Mets, unless blown away, should try to keep the trio of Syndergaard, deGrom, and Wheeler together. If anything, trade Matz. They can right the ship quickly if Rosario can get it together (has all the tools), and if Alonso and/or McNeil can become good major league players.
There's enough talent on this team to put together a good ball club, but they have to avoid the disastrous run of injuries that have befuddled this team and they have to cobble together a legitimate bullpen, which is probably the toughest thing to do for a major league GM, as reliever performance can be so unpredictable.
It's hard to argue with anything that you're asking for. I'm still holding out hope there's a complete house cleaning of the front office and we bring in outside people. The results under Alderson wern't acceptable, so IMO, promoting someone from that regime is backwards thinking.
I'd lean toward keeping the pitchers, but like you said, it doesn't hurt to shop aggressively and ask for the moon. Even if you don't want to trade them, doesn't it make sense to see what their value is before deciding 100% not to trade them?