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NFT: Verlander and Cole coming back down to earth

Milton : 7/5/2018 1:35 pm
I just crunched some numbers. Over his last five starts Cole's ERA is 4.34 and his WHIP is 1.34. For Verlander the numbers are 4.60 and 1.24.

All that really matters is how they're pitching in October, which is anybody's guess, but the latest stats bode well!
Yea, those early number  
section125 : 7/5/2018 1:44 pm : link
were ridiculous. Another month to six weeks, Sale will start to crumble.
Thanks for the breakdown.  
bceagle05 : 7/5/2018 1:46 pm : link
I noticed Verlander was taking his lumps lately, but hadn't paid as close attention to Cole.
They ran  
spike : 7/5/2018 1:50 pm : link
out of the cream
Pretty  
DanMetroMan : 7/5/2018 1:51 pm : link
silly. Verlander has had 1 really bad start, and one mediocre one the 10 preceding those 1.74 era, and his 4 starts prior to the bad 2 3.16 era 25.2 innings 32 k's .198 BAA. What you are doing is ignoring sample size. 1 really bad start makes his numbers look far worse than they have been. Verlander in June prior to his TB start 32.1 innings 26 hits 8 walks 38 k's
RE: Pretty  
Milton : 7/5/2018 1:59 pm : link
In comment 14007004 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
What you are doing is ignoring sample size. 1 really bad start makes his numbers look far worse than they have been.
I'm not ignoring sample size, I gave it: 5 starts. And five starts is not a small sample set. As for one start making his numbers look far worse, that may very well be true, but the point isn't so much that his ERA is 4.60 over the five starts, but that it isn't 1.60, so it's not like it's just one bad start that separates him from the guy who was unhittable in April and May. Which is the point of the thread.
Those 2  
Sy'56 : 7/5/2018 2:14 pm : link
are going to be the end of the Yankees in October
RE: Those 2  
section125 : 7/5/2018 2:34 pm : link
In comment 14007033 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
are going to be the end of the Yankees in October


When did you become an Astros' fan?

Before last year's resurgence the Yanks were finally getting to Verlander. What he did to them was brutal last season after the trade and playoffs.
RE: Those 2  
BigBlueShock : 7/5/2018 2:38 pm : link
In comment 14007033 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
are going to be the end of the Yankees in October

Oh yes. The Yankees will be shaking in their cleats at the mere thought of having to face the immortal Gerrit Cole...

FFS man
RE: Yea, those early number  
Eman11 : 7/5/2018 5:05 pm : link
In comment 14006993 section125 said:
Quote:
were ridiculous. Another month to six weeks, Sale will start to crumble.


Haha. Brilliant minds. After reading the title and OP I was going to post the exact same thing and then I scroll down one post and you beat me to it.

I couldn't agree with you more on Sale. Until he proves he can be dominant for a whole season and not crawl to the finish line, I'm not giving him the benefit of the doubt on keeping this pace up.
Sevie’s ERA  
RetroJint : 7/5/2018 5:39 pm : link
projects to about 3.5 from here out . This is a brutal time of year to be throwing 100 pitches . I felt bad for that poor bastard that started the second game for the Braves . He was sweating so profusely that there was no way he had any chance to get a proper grip of the ball.

Second wind comes after Labor Day when it starts cooling off .
What’s often overlooked  
UConn4523 : 7/5/2018 5:45 pm : link
is that Verlander coasted last season on a shitty team with no pressure. The expectations for him are through the roof right now, and each start he’s giving everything he has to keep up with the momentum that team has had since last fall. How big is his gas tank and how much is left?

It’s certainly no give he’s lights out again this October. It’s likely, but definitely not certain.
Cole maybe, but Verlander is still on top of his game  
dpinzow : 7/5/2018 5:47 pm : link
...
RE: Sevie’s ERA  
bigbluehoya : 7/5/2018 5:51 pm : link
In comment 14007199 RetroJint said:
Quote:
projects to about 3.5 from here out .


Link? Source?

FIP is sub 2.3
Cole was going to regress  
Deejboy : 7/5/2018 11:52 pm : link
Basically the Astros had him throwing his breaking pitches a lot more than his fastball. That is why his K/9 rate is 12.19 compared to his career average of about 8.20. He was getting a ton of swinging strikes. But that started to take a toll on his arm. He has been going back to his fastball more and notice how the home runs and hits have started to really creep up again.

Verlander is 35 with 2,700 innings in his arm. The Tiger were convinced he was badly regressing and basically done. He fought back at nature with the Astros but him not being as sharp over the course of a long season is not shocking. As long as he is there for the playoffs. Verlander seemed like he turned immortal with the Astros. But he is a 35 year old power pitcher with a ton of mileage. You always have to watch them.
RE: What’s often overlooked  
MetsAreBack : 7/6/2018 9:33 am : link
In comment 14007202 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
is that Verlander coasted last season on a shitty team with no pressure. The expectations for him are through the roof right now, and each start he’s giving everything he has to keep up with the momentum that team has had since last fall. How big is his gas tank and how much is left?

It’s certainly no give he’s lights out again this October. It’s likely, but definitely not certain.


Right... you really believe this nonsense?
I said it’s possible  
UConn4523 : 7/6/2018 9:37 am : link
and how is it nonsense? Chris Sale fades late in seasons, why can’t a 35 year old power pitcher?
First of all you pretend to be able to know his mental state  
MetsAreBack : 7/6/2018 9:40 am : link
then you say he'll probably be lights out in October anyway,... but hey, he might not be?

Severino might not be too!

Awesome -- keep the insight coming lol (sorry, i know dickish... just seems like such a fucking stretch)
I’m not pretending to know anything  
UConn4523 : 7/6/2018 9:43 am : link
he played for an awful tigers team and then had a resurgence on a playoff team. Happens a lot in sports and a ton of it is mental.

You are right, it can happen to anyone. But he’s 35, and pitching over a long season for a team that has repeat expectations. I think it’s fair to assume that he’s trying harder now than he did for the first 3/4 of last season. It can all mean nothing, who knows. But feel free to keep complaining about my comments.
Nothing more than wishful thinking  
Chris684 : 7/6/2018 9:56 am : link
from some Yankees fans.

And you can bet the farm that if the Astros pitchers are mowing them down in October, that damn strike zone will be so unfair!
RE: Nothing more than wishful thinking  
BigBlueShock : 7/6/2018 10:00 am : link
In comment 14007348 Chris684 said:
Quote:
from some Yankees fans.

And you can bet the farm that if the Astros pitchers are mowing them down in October, that damn strike zone will be so unfair!

What a shock. A Mets fan comes on to a thread to shit on Yankees fans, unprovoked. Again. Classic.
RE: Nothing more than wishful thinking  
Eman11 : 7/6/2018 10:04 am : link
In comment 14007348 Chris684 said:
Quote:
from some Yankees fans.

And you can bet the farm that if the Astros pitchers are mowing them down in October, that damn strike zone will be so unfair!
j

Well Judge has been getting screwed on bad strike calls all year. More than any other player in MLB, so why would that change?

I can only hope it will because the better umps will be working the postseason games but I'm sure not counting on it.
The data is well documented  
BigBlueShock : 7/6/2018 10:10 am : link
The Yankees, and in particularly Judge, leads MLB in balls out of the zone being called strikes and second place isn’t close.

But I guess if the Mets were in that position, you’d never see any mention of the awful calls on the game threads. Except, we all know better...
Verlander didnt get the memo..  
Dillon in Va : 7/6/2018 10:19 am : link
Verlander went 7 strong last night with 10k, no walks, 4 hits and 2 runs.

RE: Verlander didnt get the memo..  
Eman11 : 7/6/2018 11:13 am : link
In comment 14007358 Dillon in Va said:
Quote:
Verlander went 7 strong last night with 10k, no walks, 4 hits and 2 runs.


I hope he keeps throwing 7 + innings per game right through September.
RE: RE: Verlander didnt get the memo..  
UConn4523 : 7/6/2018 11:16 am : link
In comment 14007413 Eman11 said:
Quote:
In comment 14007358 Dillon in Va said:


Quote:


Verlander went 7 strong last night with 10k, no walks, 4 hits and 2 runs.




I hope he keeps throwing 7 + innings per game right through September.


Same, which was basically what I was alluding to earlier. My approach is more curiosity than hope. I just want a fun postseason and if Verlander is still lights out, gotta tip your cap to him.
He's a freak..  
Dillon in Va : 7/6/2018 11:21 am : link
and I think has proved he is a gamer that cant be counted out. He got stronger as the year got longer. I have very little doubt he will be ready and doing his thing. The Yankees just need to worry about playing their best ball and not have the big hitters come up small.

Cole is a different story. Big talent, seemed to change things up this year and it worked. Using his fastball more lately and that could be trouble for him.
RE: RE: RE: Verlander didnt get the memo..  
Eman11 : 7/6/2018 11:38 am : link
In comment 14007416 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14007413 Eman11 said:


Quote:


In comment 14007358 Dillon in Va said:


Quote:


Verlander went 7 strong last night with 10k, no walks, 4 hits and 2 runs.




I hope he keeps throwing 7 + innings per game right through September.



Same, which was basically what I was alluding to earlier. My approach is more curiosity than hope. I just want a fun postseason and if Verlander is still lights out, gotta tip your cap to him.


Agreed.

The only thing I'd add is I think it'll be harder for him to do this year than last year. He's pitching this year all year for a team trying to win the Division and home field and not just the last two months of a season.
I want to know what the Astros  
Don Draper : 7/6/2018 1:31 pm : link
put in their pitchers' drinking water so the Yankees pitchers can start drinking it, too! I'm not accusing them of anything illicit, but based on the improvement Verlander, Cole, and Morton quickly showed after joining the team, whatever it is that they're doing works very well and merits emulating...
RE: RE: Yea, those early number  
Mr. Nickels : 7/6/2018 4:01 pm : link
In comment 14007188 Eman11 said:
Quote:
In comment 14006993 section125 said:


Quote:


were ridiculous. Another month to six weeks, Sale will start to crumble.



Haha. Brilliant minds. After reading the title and OP I was going to post the exact same thing and then I scroll down one post and you beat me to it.

I couldn't agree with you more on Sale. Until he proves he can be dominant for a whole season and not crawl to the finish line, I'm not giving him the benefit of the doubt on keeping this pace up.


Better hope not I just traded for him!
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