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Twenty years from now, is football still king?

SFGFNCGiantsFan : 7/9/2018 12:20 pm
I was having a conversation with a coworker a little while ago about football & it's future. He believes-and I tend to concur-that football has already hit it's peak & that twenty years from now, it won't be the behemoth that it is now. It might even become a niche sport, popular in certain regions (CA, TX, the South), but not nationwide.

What do you think? Where does football stand/look like in 2038?

For me personally, the CTE issue is huge. While I still love watching the Giants & football in general, I feel somewhat guilty watching guys try to kill each other & knowing that some of these guys won't even remember their names ten years after they call it quits.
It will decline slowly but surely  
Greg from LI : 7/9/2018 12:23 pm : link
For the simple fact that fewer and fewer boys will play it.
nah, I disagree  
Csonka : 7/9/2018 12:25 pm : link
Doesn't matter if you played football. Most diehard fans never played it. Everyone plays soccer as a kid, yet it never catches on professionally here.
In The Suburban City Of 125,000 Where I Live In SoCal  
Trainmaster : 7/9/2018 12:25 pm : link
The boys football league just disbanded. Not enough boys signed up.

NFL Network was showing flag football this weekend. That’s where we’re headed.
What's going to replace it?  
njm : 7/9/2018 12:26 pm : link
It may not be as dominant, but I still think it will be on top. And they'll even watch it in California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.

Yes  
Big Blue '56 : 7/9/2018 12:28 pm : link
.
RE: nah, I disagree  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 12:32 pm : link
In comment 14008968 Csonka said:
Quote:
Doesn't matter if you played football. Most diehard fans never played it. Everyone plays soccer as a kid, yet it never catches on professionally here.


Ohh it definitely matters. And using your example, most soccer fans were interested in the first place because they played it.

Football likely peaked, IMO. It’s why they are hoping to go international because the domestic audience is tapped out and the only way to go is down. It’s also got a ton of issue both on field and off that people are getting tired of.

Those that think it won’t decline are in denial, IMO.
It's become more like baseball for me.  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 7/9/2018 12:33 pm : link
I watch my team and my team only for the most part. The product on the field isn't as exciting as College Ball (More offensive innovations, just about every game counts, rooting for upsets, etc.)
RE: It's become more like baseball for me.  
njm : 7/9/2018 12:38 pm : link
In comment 14008978 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
I watch my team and my team only for the most part. The product on the field isn't as exciting as College Ball (More offensive innovations, just about every game counts, rooting for upsets, etc.)


But I believe the OP was not limiting his comment to the NFL. College would decline as well.
UConn  
njm : 7/9/2018 12:39 pm : link
And soccer, along with basketball to a lesser degree, doesn't have problems both on and off the field?
College has a more organic fan base  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 12:40 pm : link
much more diehard and unless college goes away, I think they will have an easier time with the decline than the NFL would.

But football as a whole will be less popular in the near future. I don’t know if it will hit a point where it’s no longer #1, but it will definitely decline a good amount.
RE: UConn  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 12:42 pm : link
In comment 14008982 njm said:
Quote:
And soccer, along with basketball to a lesser degree, doesn't have problems both on and off the field?


Certainly not like the nfl. I mean is it even close what league has the most issues? The nfl is responsible for a massive medical cover up and is now botching kneeling and protests. It’s also decreased dramatically in overall quality of play and is all over he map with new rules and replay.

It’s a disaster.
assuming  
Les in TO : 7/9/2018 12:43 pm : link
we are all still here in 20 years and not living in a dystopian post-nuclear armageddon hazmat zone where the only sport is survival (which I'd put at a 33% chance given the current state of affairs), I think the gap will be narrowed in terms of participation, ratings, money etc between football and other sports (particularly soccer and basketball).
No, it  
Pete in MD : 7/9/2018 12:44 pm : link
will be replaced by The Hunger Games.
I don't know what's going to happen in the US.  
Koldegaard : 7/9/2018 12:44 pm : link
But worldwide, basketball is just so much better at marketing the game and its stars.

Look at the Chinese market - which is HUUUUUUUGE. The NBA has been a factor there since around 1992. Same here in Europe. I would say that the NBA is around 10-20 times as popular over here. (right now I am in Italy and I see NBA jerseys all over. Same when I lived in Thailand. People in South East Asia don't care about football - Badminton is HUGE compared to football)

Regarding soccer. Don't underestimate the fact that you guys just won the World Cup. With social media and everything - and soccer stars being very active on social media - soccer will keep evolving in the US. I remember 20 years ago when Europeans joked around and said that any midlevel club over here could beat the US national team. It's not like that anymore. Not even close.

IMO Football is/was peaking with the Peyton/Favre/Brady era and will start a slow decline. (sadly) I hope I am wrong but the number of players is a factor and the failed attempt at international growth is as well.
* won the rights to the  
Koldegaard : 7/9/2018 12:46 pm : link
2026 WC
RE: I don't know what's going to happen in the US.  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 7/9/2018 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14008991 Koldegaard said:
Quote:
But worldwide, basketball is just so much better at marketing the game and its stars.

Look at the Chinese market - which is HUUUUUUUGE. The NBA has been a factor there since around 1992. Same here in Europe. I would say that the NBA is around 10-20 times as popular over here. (right now I am in Italy and I see NBA jerseys all over. Same when I lived in Thailand. People in South East Asia don't care about football - Badminton is HUGE compared to football)

Regarding soccer. Don't underestimate the fact that you guys just won the World Cup. With social media and everything - and soccer stars being very active on social media - soccer will keep evolving in the US. I remember 20 years ago when Europeans joked around and said that any midlevel club over here could beat the US national team. It's not like that anymore. Not even close.

IMO Football is/was peaking with the Peyton/Favre/Brady era and will start a slow decline. (sadly) I hope I am wrong but the number of players is a factor and the failed attempt at international growth is as well.


NBA is a sham with the mega teams and all the rest are tanking for the lottery. I haven't watched in years.
In all honesty  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 12:48 pm : link
if you are a football fan you should want a shift back to reality. It’s not your money, what do you care about nfl revenues?

It’s like any other business, it sometimes take a huge loss to correct issues and get better. Why not with the NFL?
RE: RE: UConn  
njm : 7/9/2018 12:48 pm : link
In comment 14008987 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14008982 njm said:


Quote:


And soccer, along with basketball to a lesser degree, doesn't have problems both on and off the field?



Certainly not like the nfl. I mean is it even close what league has the most issues? The nfl is responsible for a massive medical cover up and is now botching kneeling and protests. It’s also decreased dramatically in overall quality of play and is all over he map with new rules and replay.

It’s a disaster.


Well, we can discuss this further in Qatar in 2022 and watch Neymar flop together.
re.  
giants#1 : 7/9/2018 12:53 pm : link
I think it's American popularity has probably peaked (and thus likely to decline), but it's likely a distant 5th among the big 5 sports (big 4 + soccer) internationally and likely still has room for overall revenue growth. I still think it'll be top 2 (at worst) within 20 years though. Part of that is it has a pretty substantial lead over the other sports at this point.

While CTE issues will likely dampen prospects in this country, the growth of more youth flag football could help football grow internationally, especially in lower income countries (e.g. South America). Without the need for (costly) helmets/pads, flag football becomes nearly as cheap as soccer which could help the sport grow organically. Get some youth flag football going in these countries and its only a matter of time before the big $$ college boosters arrive!

RE: RE: RE: UConn  
Koldegaard : 7/9/2018 12:54 pm : link
In comment 14008997 njm said:
Quote:
In comment 14008987 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


In comment 14008982 njm said:


Quote:


And soccer, along with basketball to a lesser degree, doesn't have problems both on and off the field?



Certainly not like the nfl. I mean is it even close what league has the most issues? The nfl is responsible for a massive medical cover up and is now botching kneeling and protests. It’s also decreased dramatically in overall quality of play and is all over he map with new rules and replay.

It’s a disaster.



Well, we can discuss this further in Qatar in 2022 and watch Neymar flop together.


I hate the flopping too. But it doesn't change the fact that more than 270 million people play soccer worldwide - and the argument of the OP was about the decline in the player pool.
Soccer flourishes globally despite the flopping  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 12:55 pm : link
but using 1 player from 1 tournament doesn’t really say much. No sport is perfect and soccer will have to address the issue.

Soccer is the perfect sport for the younger generation that doesn’t want commercials and wants to enjoy a game in under 2 hours of time. You can shit on it all you want but it won’t change the big problems the nfl faces, among the largest of which is the pace of game and never ending stoppages.
CTE  
gmenatlarge : 7/9/2018 12:55 pm : link
will be the demise of the NFL, we'll probably be watching video gamers controlling robots in the not-too distant future.
If football does decline, I doubt soccer is the main beneficiary  
Greg from LI : 7/9/2018 12:57 pm : link
It will remain a sport dominated by foreign teams that a majority of football fans will have little interest in.

I could see hockey benefiting. The best league in the world is already here and there are more Americans in the NHL than ever, and the physicality will appeal to football fans more than flopping soccer prettyboys.
RE: If football does decline, I doubt soccer is the main beneficiary  
njm : 7/9/2018 12:58 pm : link
In comment 14009008 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
It will remain a sport dominated by foreign teams that a majority of football fans will have little interest in.

I could see hockey benefiting. The best league in the world is already here and there are more Americans in the NHL than ever, and the physicality will appeal to football fans more than flopping soccer prettyboys.


Fall lacrosse
RE: I watch my team and my team only for the most part.  
Trainmaster : 7/9/2018 12:59 pm : link
I’m pretty much in the same boat.

I’ll watch the Sunday Night game if it’s a good match up.
I don’t even want Soccer to flourish here  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 1:00 pm : link
the thought of the American machine influencing things to pump in advertising and stoppage in play would be awful. I don’t need it to be the most watched American sport to enjoy it which is why I have no idea why some people get offended if ratings for a league they follow takes a dip (unless you are an investor).
I follow Adam Grant (author of "The Originals" and "Give and Take")...  
BestFeature : 7/9/2018 1:01 pm : link
...on FB. He posted about one of his students at Wharton committing suicide due to CTE from football. Anyway, he's a very nice guy but his politics make Justin Trudeau look like Donald Trump. He called for making a football a non-contact sport. Reason I mentioned politics was just to say that politically he's not some outlier. I wonder if there will be political pressure, at least culturally, if not on the government level to make football a non-contact sport.
RE: RE: I don't know what's going to happen in the US.  
Koldegaard : 7/9/2018 1:01 pm : link
In comment 14008995 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
In comment 14008991 Koldegaard said:


Quote:


But worldwide, basketball is just so much better at marketing the game and its stars.

Look at the Chinese market - which is HUUUUUUUGE. The NBA has been a factor there since around 1992. Same here in Europe. I would say that the NBA is around 10-20 times as popular over here. (right now I am in Italy and I see NBA jerseys all over. Same when I lived in Thailand. People in South East Asia don't care about football - Badminton is HUGE compared to football)

Regarding soccer. Don't underestimate the fact that you guys just won the World Cup. With social media and everything - and soccer stars being very active on social media - soccer will keep evolving in the US. I remember 20 years ago when Europeans joked around and said that any midlevel club over here could beat the US national team. It's not like that anymore. Not even close.

IMO Football is/was peaking with the Peyton/Favre/Brady era and will start a slow decline. (sadly) I hope I am wrong but the number of players is a factor and the failed attempt at international growth is as well.



NBA is a sham with the mega teams and all the rest are tanking for the lottery. I haven't watched in years.


Agreed - But the NBA is so big internationally. The stars are mega stars in China, India and Korea and they know how to market the game internationally. It's not even about playing games in London and Mexico. It's about being able to play the game. Having the stars travel and market the game and most of all it is about branding and pop culture. MJ started it when he wanted players to wear their own shoes. Jordan shoes/ LeBron and NBA jerseys have secured the NBA internationally for the next 40-50 years.
RE: nah, I disagree  
widmerseyebrow : 7/9/2018 1:02 pm : link
In comment 14008968 Csonka said:
Quote:
Doesn't matter if you played football. Most diehard fans never played it. Everyone plays soccer as a kid, yet it never catches on professionally here.


I disagree. But even worse is that fewer boys playing it means the talent pool is shrinking more and more each year. The product will only get worse.
RE: RE: RE: RE: UConn  
njm : 7/9/2018 1:03 pm : link
In comment 14009004 Koldegaard said:
Quote:


I hate the flopping too. But it doesn't change the fact that more than 270 million people play soccer worldwide - and the argument of the OP was about the decline in the player pool.


My comment about meeting in Qatar was a snarky way of pointing out a serious problem. As much as we in the US complain about the NFL Commissioner and league, and righty so, I think I'd choose them over FIFA.

And I agree that soccer will always have more players, easily, than football worldwide.
RE: I follow Adam Grant (author of  
njm : 7/9/2018 1:04 pm : link
In comment 14009016 BestFeature said:
Quote:
...on FB. He posted about one of his students at Wharton committing suicide due to CTE from football. Anyway, he's a very nice guy but his politics make Justin Trudeau look like Donald Trump. He called for making a football a non-contact sport. Reason I mentioned politics was just to say that politically he's not some outlier. I wonder if there will be political pressure, at least culturally, if not on the government level to make football a non-contact sport.


Right after they make boxing and MMA non-contact sports.
RE: RE: nah, I disagree  
widmerseyebrow : 7/9/2018 1:06 pm : link
In comment 14009020 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
In comment 14008968 Csonka said:


Quote:


Doesn't matter if you played football. Most diehard fans never played it. Everyone plays soccer as a kid, yet it never catches on professionally here.



I disagree. But even worse is that fewer boys playing it means the talent pool is shrinking more and more each year. The product will only get worse.


Moreso if football becomes un-insurable through more medical studies then you're talking about an existential threat from the roots on up.
FIFA only oversees international tournaments  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 1:09 pm : link
they don’t control the majority of soccer which is club play. The EPL would be a comparison to the NFL, not FIFA.
RE: It will decline slowly but surely  
81_Great_Dane : 7/9/2018 1:15 pm : link
In comment 14008966 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
For the simple fact that fewer and fewer boys will play it.
I think this is the thing.

First, I expect that as the tests for CTE become more commonplace, it will be revealed that it's occurring in a very high % of football players, and it's starting young, like, after a single season of high school football in some guys. So a lot of parents will steer their kids away from the game and a lot of young men will opt for other sports.

Second, as that information comes out, the game will become uninsurable. The NFL can self-insure, some states where football is a religion will try having the government become the insurer, but there's simply going to be too much damage to too many people.

Will it go away entirely? Probably not. It's been 50 years since the dangers of smoking became widely known, and people still smoke. But smoking is much less popular and legally restricted in many places. Football will face a similar challenge.
Football will become a regional sport  
Greg from LI : 7/9/2018 1:19 pm : link
They'll still play it in the southeast and Texas, and parts of the Midwest.
RE: RE: If football does decline, I doubt soccer is the main beneficiary  
ron mexico : 7/9/2018 1:19 pm : link
In comment 14009010 njm said:
Quote:
In comment 14009008 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


It will remain a sport dominated by foreign teams that a majority of football fans will have little interest in.

I could see hockey benefiting. The best league in the world is already here and there are more Americans in the NHL than ever, and the physicality will appeal to football fans more than flopping soccer prettyboys.



Fall lacrosse


Lacrosse is a pretty terrible spectator sport
Roger Goodell  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 7/9/2018 1:20 pm : link
Through sheer incompetency, killed the world's most successful sports-entertainment franchise Wellington Mara built from back when pro football was as popular as curling.
RE: RE: It will decline slowly but surely  
njm : 7/9/2018 1:23 pm : link
In comment 14009034 81_Great_Dane said:
Quote:


First, I expect that as the tests for CTE become more commonplace, it will be revealed that it's occurring in a very high % of football players, and it's starting young, like, after a single season of high school football in some guys. So a lot of parents will steer their kids away from the game and a lot of young men will opt for other sports.



If it were a very high percentage then we would have had a crisis in middle age dementia in males for the last 50 years. There certainly is a risk, but that's hyperbole.
Popularity of the football is driven by and will sustain due to ..  
kinard : 7/9/2018 1:23 pm : link
...gambling and fantasy football.

Football is the most "gambling friendly" game of them all and fantasy football seems to be more popular than ever.

Baseball and hockey aren't (relatively speaking) gambling friendly sports, and while soccer may appear more to gamblers, its not a TV friendly sport that is likely to ever capture the attention-deficit minds of the younger generation.

Football game are once a week affairs (primarily all on the same day) - primarily during the fall/winter months when many are captives in their homes. A perfect set-up for the ham-and-egg gambler that most of us are.

Pete Rozelle knew it a long-time ago. The "NFL-gambling-television" trifecta will be hard to beat and will be with for a long time.
Yeah Lacrosse has no shot  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 1:25 pm : link
you can’t see the players, you can’t see the ball, there’s absolutely nothing relatable to a viewer unless you played and even then it’s not watched. They just had some lacrosse tournament on ESPN2 last week while Cornhole was on ESPN...that about sums it up.
Twenty years from now  
pjcas18 : 7/9/2018 1:27 pm : link
many of the people posting on here will be dead or close to it so who knows what to predict from the sports world, but in general sports do not change quickly. And 20 years is quickly if you look at how much sports have changed from 1999 - current day (in terms of popularity).

20 years ago, people said soccer was on the cusp of taking over all sports in the US and you still here that, football was surpassing baseball. NBA was an afterthought.

I think there's a better chance they figure out some CTE prevention equipment, rules or adjustments and football is still in king.

Quote:
It's the sport of kings, better than diamond rings it's why we're here to sing...football.

sundays in the snow, referees whistle blows we've been warriors toe to toe...football.....


would they really have wrote those words if it wasn't here to stay (even though technically horse racing is the sport of kings I believe)?
I think either football is king or nothing is king  
Oscar : 7/9/2018 1:28 pm : link
No other sport has anything like the hold football does over the country, especially when you look at all levels (high school, college, pro). It is the only national sport, the only thing there is even a reasonable chance some random person you meet will have some level of familiarity.

You simply can’t say that about any other sport. I know people who like basketball, soccer, hockey, baseball but none of those sports have any kind of broad appeal in the US. Walk around the office on a Monday and there is always some buzz about football. That never, ever happens for the other sports in any consistent way. You get a version of it with big events (NCAA Tournament, World Cup) but not to the same extent.

There’s no national “conversation” about baseball or hockey. The NBA gets a little bit just with player movement but nothing about games.

I think the most likely outcomes in 20 years would be 1) Football is still king; 2) Nothing is king. Our culture continues to become more and more decentralized and everyone has their own interests and leagues have their little pockets of fans but there’s no real collective interest or “national sport”.

Frankly I think #2 is inevitable in the long run, I don’t know how long it will take, maybe longer than 20 years. You already see it with music and TV. With some limited exceptions there’s no real expectation other people will be familiar with a new album or new show.
RE: Popularity of the football is driven by and will sustain due to ..  
ron mexico : 7/9/2018 1:30 pm : link
In comment 14009043 kinard said:
Quote:
...gambling and fantasy football.

Football is the most "gambling friendly" game of them all and fantasy football seems to be more popular than ever.

Baseball and hockey aren't (relatively speaking) gambling friendly sports, and while soccer may appear more to gamblers, its not a TV friendly sport that is likely to ever capture the attention-deficit minds of the younger generation.

Football game are once a week affairs (primarily all on the same day) - primarily during the fall/winter months when many are captives in their homes. A perfect set-up for the ham-and-egg gambler that most of us are.

Pete Rozelle knew it a long-time ago. The "NFL-gambling-television" trifecta will be hard to beat and will be with for a long time.


I think its the networks and advertisers that have a problem with televised soccer, not the fans.

RE: Twenty years from now  
pjcas18 : 7/9/2018 1:30 pm : link
In comment 14009051 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
many of the people posting on here will be dead or close to it so who knows what to predict from the sports world, but in general sports do not change quickly. And 20 years is quickly if you look at how much sports have changed from 1999 - current day (in terms of popularity).

20 years ago, people said soccer was on the cusp of taking over all sports in the US and you still here that, football was surpassing baseball. NBA was an afterthought.

I think there's a better chance they figure out some CTE prevention equipment, rules or adjustments and football is still in king.



Quote:


It's the sport of kings, better than diamond rings it's why we're here to sing...football.

sundays in the snow, referees whistle blows we've been warriors toe to toe...football.....



would they really have wrote those words if it wasn't here to stay (even though technically horse racing is the sport of kings I believe)?



*hear* I need to hire a proof-reader (or add a disclaimer to every post that I know the difference between hear and here and there and their and they're and your and you're, no know, etc. but sometimes I just don't care enough to pay attention....until I re-read it)
soccer would be able to handle the advertising  
pjcas18 : 7/9/2018 1:32 pm : link
if they do what the NHL did during the Stanley Cup playoffs and split the screen. I bet the NFL and MLB adopt it too if they haven't already (not sure if even the NHL was the first major sport to do this), but it was only mildly annoying when they split the screen had a commercial on one side and the game on the other - for the shorter commercial breaks.

It was a million times better than commercials every stoppage or even the TV timeouts.
Not sure.. but maybe  
BigBlue89 : 7/9/2018 1:37 pm : link
If you had asked me 20 years ago I would've said no way.

But with what we're learning with head injuries, and the changing landscape of how people want to be entertained, I could see football becoming less popular.

I mean, even getting people to want to go to a game is becoming a challenge nowadays, they want to go to one a year at most and find it a hassle.
If I watched 20 minutes of soccer  
Greg from LI : 7/9/2018 1:37 pm : link
I would be begging for a break in the "action"
While I believe that the NFL product's quality is declining,  
Mr. Bungle : 7/9/2018 1:40 pm : link
and while my personal interest in the sport is fading with each passing year, it's going to take a while before the NFL falls out of dominance. Perhaps that may be within 20 years, but it's hard to forecast.

The NFL brings in $7 billion dollars in TV revenue each year. That isn't just better than all other sports -- it completely dwarfs their revenue. 2nd place is the NBA with $2.7 billion per year. The NBA could double their revenue (which is virtually impossible) and still be well behind the NFL. (As for the NHL, it only brings in $200 million per year. It's silly to think that the NHL would benefit much from football fans tuning out. People know the NHL exists. They're just not watching because they don't care.)

The NFL is going to have to go into a prolonged death spiral to lose its place of dominance. It could happen. But millions of people watch habitually, even though they admit they don't enjoy it as much as they used to. And getting all those people to break that habit would certainly take a long time.

RE: If I watched 20 minutes of soccer  
pjcas18 : 7/9/2018 1:40 pm : link
In comment 14009061 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
I would be begging for a break in the "action"


I don't watch it either (though I saw a game in London where the entire pub was rabidly fanatical and it was kind of cool to witness - the fans more than the game), but the advertising excuse about why it hasn't reached the same US popularity that is has global popularity is weak IMO.

I'm sure there's a reason, but it's not the advertising/stoppage of play IMO.
If current concerns  
old man : 7/9/2018 1:42 pm : link
Re: CTE, and potential long term injuries,remain or increase, almost all of the sports we played or watch will be played in 'tech' leagues,and your team's RG will be a guy in Keokuk, Iowa, and your RT will be guy in Enid Oklahoma, using $5K joysticks and $100K computers.
You'll still be able to block; or 'shave' a batter with a 125 mph pitch,drive to the basket,practice your soccer 'dive', buttend your opponent, or pull the razor or sandpaper out of your trunks, or whatever your favorite sport entertainment allows...just vicariously.
We will watch on our wall sized tv, and bet online actively.
But just so we can release our emotions together in some
kind of a arena, we will crave the one contact activity allowed.... ROLLERBALL.
Robot football  
spike : 7/9/2018 1:42 pm : link
Instead of humans
Soccer is not the problem it’s just cultural  
Oscar : 7/9/2018 1:44 pm : link
If you were Greg from London you would almost certainly be soccer-obsessed and sports like football, hockey, baseball, basketball would seem absurd.

I understand why people don’t like soccer, I don’t understand the idea that there is something particularly boring or unappealing about it. Just regional preferences. Baseball is horrifyingly boring to most foreigners I know, but if you grow up in New York or whatever it’s just normal.

RE: RE: If I watched 20 minutes of soccer  
ron mexico : 7/9/2018 1:48 pm : link
In comment 14009065 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14009061 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


I would be begging for a break in the "action"



I don't watch it either (though I saw a game in London where the entire pub was rabidly fanatical and it was kind of cool to witness - the fans more than the game), but the advertising excuse about why it hasn't reached the same US popularity that is has global popularity is weak IMO.

I'm sure there's a reason, but it's not the advertising/stoppage of play IMO.


I'm not saying the lack of ability for traditional american advertising is holding it back, I'm just saying that the continuous play is not holding it back either.

Frankly I like the popularity level of Soccer in the USA right now. Its nice to be able to attend a red bull game for a very reasonable price but still get a great game day
experience.
Some Form of Non-Contact...  
Jim in Tampa : 7/9/2018 1:58 pm : link
Or reduced contact football is coming, similar (as others have said) to flag football or "electronic" flag football.

You can take away the hitting and you still have passing, running and stopping the ball carrier.

When you think of it, in NFL training camps teams play a version of this right now, where plays are run without players hitting each other.
Ron Mexico  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 2:00 pm : link
exactly. I don’t win anything if the NFL is the most popular, only continues rising prices that will continue to keep me from attending. Soccers popularity has been increasing but I gain nothing if it were more popular. The only reason I would want it to be more popular is so they can pay more in the MLS and attract more players, that’s really it.
Either way  
SirLoinOfBeef : 7/9/2018 2:12 pm : link
Bob Wills is still the king.
RE: Ron Mexico  
pjcas18 : 7/9/2018 2:17 pm : link
In comment 14009083 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
exactly. I don’t win anything if the NFL is the most popular, only continues rising prices that will continue to keep me from attending. Soccers popularity has been increasing but I gain nothing if it were more popular. The only reason I would want it to be more popular is so they can pay more in the MLS and attract more players, that’s really it.

Let's say this is true, and more than just your opinion, do you really think people are this prescient and concerted in their actions to purposely make soccer less popular for their own personal comfort?

To the point of the thread, even if a lot of people feel this way, I doubt it is impacting the sports popularity.

It's almost like in your example football is the restaurant Yogi Berra is referring to when he says "no one goes there anymore because it's too crowded"

at the end of the day in this scenario, football is still king and it has nothing to do with what you as an individual win, it's not a personal contest.
Perhaps  
AnnapolisMike : 7/9/2018 2:23 pm : link
But it will be evolving to a different game. CTE is going to change how football is played.
Soccer does fine already without increasing the advertising  
Go Terps : 7/9/2018 2:28 pm : link
Even if you don't like MLS, NBC's coverage of the EPL is IMO the best network coverage of any sport in this country. English people talk about how much more soccer they can watch here than they can in England. The quality of the broadcast is excellent and the visual quality is better than anything I've seen. I don't know a thing about photography but they must be using the best cameras on earth.

Regardless, I think gambling and fantasy football will keep the NFL healthy for a long time.

RE: RE: Ron Mexico  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 2:32 pm : link
In comment 14009094 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14009083 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


exactly. I don’t win anything if the NFL is the most popular, only continues rising prices that will continue to keep me from attending. Soccers popularity has been increasing but I gain nothing if it were more popular. The only reason I would want it to be more popular is so they can pay more in the MLS and attract more players, that’s really it.


Let's say this is true, and more than just your opinion, do you really think people are this prescient and concerted in their actions to purposely make soccer less popular for their own personal comfort?

To the point of the thread, even if a lot of people feel this way, I doubt it is impacting the sports popularity.

It's almost like in your example football is the restaurant Yogi Berra is referring to when he says "no one goes there anymore because it's too crowded"

at the end of the day in this scenario, football is still king and it has nothing to do with what you as an individual win, it's not a personal contest.


I’ve already addressed the OP in several previous posts. I’ve had a couple sidebar comments based on why I don’t actually need soccer to be popular to enjoy it. I also comment on how defensive people get when this topic comes up, it’s like they can’t believe the NFL could possibly experience a decrease in interest - to which I ask, why not and why do you even care?

Don’t really know what else to tell you. I think the NFL is going to lose viewers not gain them in the very near future. I don’t see how that’s an unreasonable statement to make.
Nope. It'll be basketball.  
Mike in Long Beach : 7/9/2018 2:42 pm : link
And that's coming from someone who watches close to no basketball.
It will be wildly more popular than it is today  
ZGiants98 : 7/9/2018 2:44 pm : link
Technology and social media will continue to drive the sport bringing fans closer and closer to the game.
RE: Nope. It'll be basketball.  
Greg from LI : 7/9/2018 2:44 pm : link
In comment 14009121 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
And that's coming from someone who watches close to no basketball.


Basketball will always be limited to a certain extent by the innate inability of more than a few teams to be truly competitive. And if they ever expand, it would only be that much easier for a few teams to dominate as the overall talent pool gets diluted further.
I'm not saying it's unreasonable  
pjcas18 : 7/9/2018 2:48 pm : link
to say that. I missed the whole side bar.

My fault - I read the thread from the bottom (most recent posts) up. I apologize.

I just think even with losing viewers, NFL still likely remains "king" in 2038, but like I said, many of the posters on this site are likely to be dead by then.
RE: It will be wildly more popular than it is today  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 2:49 pm : link
In comment 14009124 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Technology and social media will continue to drive the sport bringing fans closer and closer to the game.


Just curious but who exactly will start watching that isn’t already? Not only that but statistics show that viewers aren’t just watching less but watching less of the games they are watching. I don’t see how social media helps with this at all.
RE: RE: It will be wildly more popular than it is today  
UConn4523 : 7/9/2018 2:53 pm : link
In comment 14009130 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14009124 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


Technology and social media will continue to drive the sport bringing fans closer and closer to the game.



Just curious but who exactly will start watching that isn’t already? Not only that but statistics show that viewers aren’t just watching less but watching less of the games they are watching. I don’t see how social media helps with this at all.


Also, NFL viewership is dominated by the 50-59 crowd and has been losing viewership in the 20-29 crowd which suggests that social media and technology is pushing them to do something else with their time.

NCAA Football has a younger demographic (which makes sense) which is dominated by males in their 40s.
RE: RE: It will be wildly more popular than it is today  
ron mexico : 7/9/2018 2:59 pm : link
In comment 14009130 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14009124 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


Technology and social media will continue to drive the sport bringing fans closer and closer to the game.



Just curious but who exactly will start watching that isn’t already? Not only that but statistics show that viewers aren’t just watching less but watching less of the games they are watching. I don’t see how social media helps with this at all.


The international audience is the only area for growth. Thats why we see all the exploits to get into that market.

Hockey!  
gtt350 : 7/9/2018 3:11 pm : link
.
IMHO  
GiantsLaw : 7/9/2018 3:33 pm : link
No. I agree with the posters who said kids are already gravitating/being pushed to other sports. The less kids that play, the worse the product becomes.
Still a niche sport nationwide  
lawguy9801 : 7/9/2018 3:38 pm : link
But I wish someone had introduced me to lacrosse when I was younger - I would have never stopped playing. I hear anecdotally that lacrosse programs nationwide are benefiting from kids giving up tackle football. And lacrosse is expanding into more and more areas (Utah will be the westernmost D I school with its new program next year). Not saying it will ever approach the popularity of the major sports but a lot of kids who formerly played football will play lacrosse instead, thus cutting into the player pool for college and ultimately the NFL.
I don't know what will happen in 20 years...  
BamaBlue : 7/9/2018 3:39 pm : link
but I would like to see football evolve back where it came from, Rugby. Rugby is a fast and exciting game. It's a game of constant motion and it's got all of the ingredients that make football interesting.

I do not think that Rugby will replace football in the U.S., but it would not surprise me if it could attract football fans and sponsors and take a sizable bite out of NFL revenue...
Many parents don't allow their children to play football.  
Ira : 7/9/2018 3:49 pm : link
Adults tend to watch sports that they played as children.
RE: While I believe that the NFL product's quality is declining,  
Koldegaard : 7/9/2018 3:55 pm : link
In comment 14009064 Mr. Bungle said:
Quote:
and while my personal interest in the sport is fading with each passing year, it's going to take a while before the NFL falls out of dominance. Perhaps that may be within 20 years, but it's hard to forecast.

The NFL brings in $7 billion dollars in TV revenue each year. That isn't just better than all other sports -- it completely dwarfs their revenue. 2nd place is the NBA with $2.7 billion per year. The NBA could double their revenue (which is virtually impossible) and still be well behind the NFL. (As for the NHL, it only brings in $200 million per year. It's silly to think that the NHL would benefit much from football fans tuning out. People know the NHL exists. They're just not watching because they don't care.)

The NFL is going to have to go into a prolonged death spiral to lose its place of dominance. It could happen. But millions of people watch habitually, even though they admit they don't enjoy it as much as they used to. And getting all those people to break that habit would certainly take a long time.


Are those numbers US. or worldwide? If international I would be shocked. If they are US. Only then they mean nothing. Then it is like when Hollywood counts opening weekend numbers and then double those numbers when the movies open in Europe/Asia.

I like most of the arguments here and I know that a lot of people seem to have lost interest in the NBA. It just isn't the case for the rest of the 6+ billion world.

NFL is only king in the US of A. (And I have football waaaaaaay higher on my list than all the other sports).
RE: While I believe that the NFL product's quality is declining,  
Koldegaard : 7/9/2018 3:56 pm : link
In comment 14009064 Mr. Bungle said:
Quote:
and while my personal interest in the sport is fading with each passing year, it's going to take a while before the NFL falls out of dominance. Perhaps that may be within 20 years, but it's hard to forecast.

The NFL brings in $7 billion dollars in TV revenue each year. That isn't just better than all other sports -- it completely dwarfs their revenue. 2nd place is the NBA with $2.7 billion per year. The NBA could double their revenue (which is virtually impossible) and still be well behind the NFL. (As for the NHL, it only brings in $200 million per year. It's silly to think that the NHL would benefit much from football fans tuning out. People know the NHL exists. They're just not watching because they don't care.)

The NFL is going to have to go into a prolonged death spiral to lose its place of dominance. It could happen. But millions of people watch habitually, even though they admit they don't enjoy it as much as they used to. And getting all those people to break that habit would certainly take a long time.


Are those numbers US. or worldwide? If international I would be shocked. If they are US. Only then they mean nothing. Then it is like when Hollywood counts opening weekend numbers and then double those numbers when the movies open in Europe/Asia.

I like most of the arguments here and I know that a lot of people seem to have lost interest in the NBA. It just isn't the case for the rest of the 6+ billion world.

NFL is only king in the US of A. (And I have football waaaaaaay higher on my list than all the other sports).
RE: Still a niche sport nationwide  
njm : 7/9/2018 4:03 pm : link
In comment 14009194 lawguy9801 said:
Quote:
But I wish someone had introduced me to lacrosse when I was younger - I would have never stopped playing. I hear anecdotally that lacrosse programs nationwide are benefiting from kids giving up tackle football. And lacrosse is expanding into more and more areas (Utah will be the westernmost D I school with its new program next year). Not saying it will ever approach the popularity of the major sports but a lot of kids who formerly played football will play lacrosse instead, thus cutting into the player pool for college and ultimately the NFL.


Don't know if this has increased in the last decade or two with the increased hesitancy about letting their kid play football, but lacrosse for a while was the compromise for a smaller number of parents when Mom didn't want their child to play football but Dad wanted a contact sport. The stick skills involved made it seem less violent.
RE: RE: Still a niche sport nationwide  
njm : 7/9/2018 4:05 pm : link
In comment 14009229 njm said:
Quote:
In comment 14009194 lawguy9801 said:


Quote:


But I wish someone had introduced me to lacrosse when I was younger - I would have never stopped playing. I hear anecdotally that lacrosse programs nationwide are benefiting from kids giving up tackle football. And lacrosse is expanding into more and more areas (Utah will be the westernmost D I school with its new program next year). Not saying it will ever approach the popularity of the major sports but a lot of kids who formerly played football will play lacrosse instead, thus cutting into the player pool for college and ultimately the NFL.



Don't know if this has increased in the last decade or two with the increased hesitancy about letting their kid play football, but lacrosse for a while was the compromise for a smaller number of parents when Mom didn't want their child to play football but Dad wanted a contact sport. The stick skills involved made it seem less violent.



And the numbers involved have exploded over the last 20 years. There will be a lag time, but attendance will follow as players hang up their cleats.
Not sure where the NFL will be, but in U.S.  
CT Charlie : 7/9/2018 4:10 pm : link
high schools and colleges, football will lose ground to soccer and lacrosse. D-III schools will probably abolish football. On the pro side, I'd bet that the British Premier League plays a U.S. fortnight, perhaps 3 games in 10 days, with all teams coming to the U.S. at the same time. They'd require 10 venues, and they could do it in August (the beginning of their season) without really going head-to-head with NFL.
RE: RE: Still a niche sport nationwide  
lawguy9801 : 7/9/2018 4:10 pm : link
In comment 14009229 njm said:
Quote:
In comment 14009194 lawguy9801 said:


Quote:


But I wish someone had introduced me to lacrosse when I was younger - I would have never stopped playing. I hear anecdotally that lacrosse programs nationwide are benefiting from kids giving up tackle football. And lacrosse is expanding into more and more areas (Utah will be the westernmost D I school with its new program next year). Not saying it will ever approach the popularity of the major sports but a lot of kids who formerly played football will play lacrosse instead, thus cutting into the player pool for college and ultimately the NFL.



Don't know if this has increased in the last decade or two with the increased hesitancy about letting their kid play football, but lacrosse for a while was the compromise for a smaller number of parents when Mom didn't want their child to play football but Dad wanted a contact sport. The stick skills involved made it seem less violent.


From a few families I know in my little orbit, it still is.
I think  
Pascal4554 : 7/9/2018 4:58 pm : link
football will decline somewhat unless changes are made to the game. CTE is a big issue. Watching the world cup without commercials is great. I think the problem with soccer in the U.S. is Americans are not used to a low scoring sport like soccer. But I suppose that could change over time. My understanding is the MLS is light years now to where it was when it first started. I've always found baseball to be boring.

How awesome would an NFL game be if there was no commercials until the end of a quarter?
If Football Can Survive the CTE Issue,  
OntheRoad : 7/9/2018 5:01 pm : link
there's no particular reason it should decline. The NFL has been king for four decades, and another two should be no surprise.

From the time Teddy Roosevelt got the forward passlegalized, American football has always shown a willingness to change the rules. So I would expect the NFL to modify the rules in noticeable ways (eg, no down linemen) before simply giving up the ghost.
This is about to replace it:  
Pete in MD : 7/9/2018 5:13 pm : link
Interesting articles  
JohnF : 7/9/2018 5:50 pm : link
Spanish soccer is trying to be more exciting by copying the NFL and video games

And...I'd love to see this for football, but it's going to be really cool when they get the bugs out.

Soccer matches land on your table thanks to augmented reality
They could scrap the NFL and I would NOT miss it.  
Aqua Giants : 7/9/2018 6:09 pm : link
2008 - 2009 or so was the last time I was interested in the game. With the Giants sucking lately, it's gotten me to care less. I am curious myself as to why I am still watching it.
Battlebots  
XBRONX : 7/9/2018 6:46 pm : link
will rule.
RE: Not sure where the NFL will be, but in U.S.  
Deejboy : 7/9/2018 6:53 pm : link
In comment 14009236 CT Charlie said:
Quote:
high schools and colleges, football will lose ground to soccer and lacrosse. D-III schools will probably abolish football. On the pro side, I'd bet that the British Premier League plays a U.S. fortnight, perhaps 3 games in 10 days, with all teams coming to the U.S. at the same time. They'd require 10 venues, and they could do it in August (the beginning of their season) without really going head-to-head with NFL.

The USSF would not allow that because it would definitely be challenging MLS. MLS is our domestic league and the USSF has to protect it against foreign encroachment. Liga MX in Mexico would kill to play regular season and playoff games in the U.S. but the USSF and FIFA stop them. The PL also got a lot of blow back for thinking of playing games on foreign soil. It is very controversial there.

For soccer to truly take off here MLS will have to get close and even surpass some of the big 4-5 European leagues. We can't import someone else's product and expect it to take off here. It will be up to MLS. I could see a CL final played in the U.S. within 20 years. I could see MLS and Chinese Super League clubs added to the Champion's League simply cause of $$$$ and the way the world is changing. The CL would rather clubs from China and the U.S. than from Estonia and Finland.
RE: They could scrap the NFL and I would NOT miss it.  
figgy2989 : 7/9/2018 7:30 pm : link
In comment 14009346 Aqua Giants said:
Quote:
2008 - 2009 or so was the last time I was interested in the game. With the Giants sucking lately, it's gotten me to care less. I am curious myself as to why I am still watching it.


Simo, I asked i your other thread that you deleted...how is pops doing? Did you go upstate to visit him during Father’s Day?
Yes it will..  
Sean : 7/9/2018 10:12 pm : link
Once a week + gambling + shortest season in terms of games will mean it is king still.

Also, the fact that TV ratings were down is a bit of a myth. Ratings have been down across the board & the NFL decline is less than everything else.

Lastly, no other sport is remotely close.
When you re 21 years  
joeinpa : 7/10/2018 9:37 am : link
Old and have a chance to make millions in the NFL, you re not going to relate to being 50 with C.T. E.

When you take into consideration the social economic background of many NFL players, unless The NFL is legislated against, C. T. E. will not be the reason for a decline in popularity

Not all football fans relate to the sport with a social conscience. For many it s just entertainment rooting for the Jersey. Players come and go, we still stay fans.

A decline in popularity will be the result of a poorer product being put on the field.

But I don t see the decline if the NFL reaching the proportions suggested here.
If not football than what?  
AnyoneButPhilly : 7/10/2018 10:17 am : link
I think people watch less sports as a whole but football is still far and away the most popular. I dont see anything gaining popularity to where it would overtake the NFL
RE: When you re 21 years  
GiantsLaw : 7/10/2018 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14009676 joeinpa said:
Quote:
Old and have a chance to make millions in the NFL, you re not going to relate to being 50 with C.T. E.
...C. T. E. will not be the reason for a decline in popularity


Parents decide if their kids play youth football, and I think the decline in participation already seen, is at least partly due to CTE concerns. I have to think this will have an impact on the NFL down the road.
many of you are confusing  
UConn4523 : 7/10/2018 1:00 pm : link
an anticipated decline in viewership with another sport overtaking the NFL. I don't see anyone really making those claims.

I asked before but how can the NFL increase its exposure? I believe the US market is tapped out and statistics back me up on that especially with the demographic data. So if it won't grow anymore in the US where exactly will it grow? Maybe London?

And CTE will play a massive role, you are kidding yourself if you think it doesn't matter. Its already led to early retirement for some players, others quitting in college, and far less youth playing it today than 10 years ago and I'm certain that trend will continue, how could it not?
UConn  
joeinpa : 7/10/2018 4:14 pm : link
I disagree. It will play a role, but not massive. These kids are still going to see it as their way out.
RE: UConn  
UConn4523 : 7/10/2018 4:25 pm : link
In comment 14010105 joeinpa said:
Quote:
I disagree. It will play a role, but not massive. These kids are still going to see it as their way out.


When they are under 18 they need parental permission to play, so it may not be their choice anyway. And then add in insurance issues and you have a recipe for disaster. Do you really think it won’t play a huge role? How can you be in such denial about it?
doubt it  
mdc1 : 7/10/2018 6:09 pm : link
probably soccer or some other "gender or safe" sporting event for the masses. Right now the NFL struggles to attract a world audience of different types. Owners will become stereotyped further as we go and will likely need to find other predator business lines that are not regulated. Right now the NFL needs government oversight and cleanup to hold it accountable for the crap they pull. All they need know is the CIA to other throw a country and setup football operations (lol) so the owners can profit like oil companies.
I think the NFL will still be on top.  
BigBlue in Keys : 7/10/2018 7:46 pm : link
I think the game of football will look very different than it does today though. I think they will find ways to decrease the violence while increasing the scoring and social/fan friendly actions. Find ways to create and add drama which markets to the younger generation.

America loves it's football and teams. People want to cheer for the same teams they have forever.

Side note: For the poster who suggested people controlling robots who play football I could see that catching on nationally before soccer. Not a knock on soccer specifically, but the rise (and popularity) of people watching other people playing video games could blend these 2 markets.
UConn  
joeinpa : 7/10/2018 7:51 pm : link
How do we go from I m not thinking it will play as big a role as you do, to I m in denial.

The very fact that I acknowledge the relationship between the disease and the sport should be evidence I am not.

I base my opinion on 20 years of working wuth kids, many of them athletes, from the projects in Philly, New Jersey and New York.

You might be in denial of the ravages of poverty if you think these parents are going to deny their kids a better life based on the possibility they might suffer later in life from their decision.

I am not cavilier about this disease, if you were aware of circumstances in my life you would understand stand that.

I simply do not agree with your assessment that for many of these athletes it will not be a massive influence.
Plenty of kids will still play  
UConn4523 : 7/10/2018 10:23 pm : link
I’m not refuting that. But the current course won’t be the same 5/10 years from now. There’s a very real possibility this version of football could be banned at the pop warner level and maybe even higher than that. We’ve just scratched the surface on head trauma research, if the findings get any worse it won’t matter if parents still want their kids to play, there wont be any youth leagues left to offer.
UConn  
joeinpa : 7/11/2018 7:12 am : link
. If legal action were to be taken again the NFL, in that context you would be correct; C. T. E. would be a major factor
Probably not.  
Dodge : 7/11/2018 3:28 pm : link
Esports will probably reign. You'll see games like League of Legends, Fortnite, Overwatch gain more and more popularity. Last year's League of Legends championship had 70+M views worldwide.

You'll see more streaming platforms getting better and better with production value as time goes on. You probably won't be watching NBC/FOX anymore on cable, you'll be streaming programming like most young people do on Twitch.tv.
RE: Probably not.  
njm : 7/11/2018 4:58 pm : link
In comment 14011028 Dodge said:
Quote:
Esports will probably reign. You'll see games like League of Legends, Fortnite, Overwatch gain more and more popularity. Last year's League of Legends championship had 70+M views worldwide.

You'll see more streaming platforms getting better and better with production value as time goes on. You probably won't be watching NBC/FOX anymore on cable, you'll be streaming programming like most young people do on Twitch.tv.



Maybe in 50 years, not in 20.
??  
Dodge : 7/12/2018 8:27 am : link
In 20 years those teens and twenty years old that don't really watch that much sports and have been playing video games for 20-30 years will have a lot of spending money.

Especially with the advent of really good mainstream VR which will certainly become a mainstay in entertainment within 5-10 years.
RE: ??  
njm : 7/12/2018 9:18 am : link
In comment 14011476 Dodge said:
Quote:
In 20 years those teens and twenty years old that don't really watch that much sports and have been playing video games for 20-30 years will have a lot of spending money.

Especially with the advent of really good mainstream VR which will certainly become a mainstay in entertainment within 5-10 years.


And I would suggest that the numbers who "don't watch much sports" is significantly smaller than those who are either interested in both alternatives or are exclusively NFL/College football fans. And not everyone who is over 30 will have died in 20 years. The relative interests will likely be different than it is today, but it will take well over 20 years for the lines to cross.
..  
Dodge : 7/12/2018 11:13 am : link
Yeah but the NFL has a primarily national audience. These games have global audiences and it's only getting bigger every year.

I'm 37 and I grew up a nerd and played lots of video games. Typically people 35 and older, when they were in their teens or twenties playing video games was still a "kid thing" and something you would never mention to chicks. These days? It's very much part of every day accepted culture.
RE: ..  
njm : 7/12/2018 11:32 am : link
In comment 14011641 Dodge said:
Quote:
Yeah but the NFL has a primarily national audience. These games have global audiences and it's only getting bigger every year.

I'm 37 and I grew up a nerd and played lots of video games. Typically people 35 and older, when they were in their teens or twenties playing video games was still a "kid thing" and something you would never mention to chicks. These days? It's very much part of every day accepted culture.


Well football (the American version) is only king in the US and possibly Canada, so we're not talking about global audiences.
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