I was having a conversation with a coworker a little while ago about football & it's future. He believes-and I tend to concur-that football has already hit it's peak & that twenty years from now, it won't be the behemoth that it is now. It might even become a niche sport, popular in certain regions (CA, TX, the South), but not nationwide.
What do you think? Where does football stand/look like in 2038?
For me personally, the CTE issue is huge. While I still love watching the Giants & football in general, I feel somewhat guilty watching guys try to kill each other & knowing that some of these guys won't even remember their names ten years after they call it quits.
NFL Network was showing flag football this weekend. That’s where we’re headed.
Ohh it definitely matters. And using your example, most soccer fans were interested in the first place because they played it.
Football likely peaked, IMO. It’s why they are hoping to go international because the domestic audience is tapped out and the only way to go is down. It’s also got a ton of issue both on field and off that people are getting tired of.
Those that think it won’t decline are in denial, IMO.
But I believe the OP was not limiting his comment to the NFL. College would decline as well.
But football as a whole will be less popular in the near future. I don’t know if it will hit a point where it’s no longer #1, but it will definitely decline a good amount.
Certainly not like the nfl. I mean is it even close what league has the most issues? The nfl is responsible for a massive medical cover up and is now botching kneeling and protests. It’s also decreased dramatically in overall quality of play and is all over he map with new rules and replay.
It’s a disaster.
Look at the Chinese market - which is HUUUUUUUGE. The NBA has been a factor there since around 1992. Same here in Europe. I would say that the NBA is around 10-20 times as popular over here. (right now I am in Italy and I see NBA jerseys all over. Same when I lived in Thailand. People in South East Asia don't care about football - Badminton is HUGE compared to football)
Regarding soccer. Don't underestimate the fact that you guys just won the World Cup. With social media and everything - and soccer stars being very active on social media - soccer will keep evolving in the US. I remember 20 years ago when Europeans joked around and said that any midlevel club over here could beat the US national team. It's not like that anymore. Not even close.
IMO Football is/was peaking with the Peyton/Favre/Brady era and will start a slow decline. (sadly) I hope I am wrong but the number of players is a factor and the failed attempt at international growth is as well.
Look at the Chinese market - which is HUUUUUUUGE. The NBA has been a factor there since around 1992. Same here in Europe. I would say that the NBA is around 10-20 times as popular over here. (right now I am in Italy and I see NBA jerseys all over. Same when I lived in Thailand. People in South East Asia don't care about football - Badminton is HUGE compared to football)
Regarding soccer. Don't underestimate the fact that you guys just won the World Cup. With social media and everything - and soccer stars being very active on social media - soccer will keep evolving in the US. I remember 20 years ago when Europeans joked around and said that any midlevel club over here could beat the US national team. It's not like that anymore. Not even close.
IMO Football is/was peaking with the Peyton/Favre/Brady era and will start a slow decline. (sadly) I hope I am wrong but the number of players is a factor and the failed attempt at international growth is as well.
NBA is a sham with the mega teams and all the rest are tanking for the lottery. I haven't watched in years.
It’s like any other business, it sometimes take a huge loss to correct issues and get better. Why not with the NFL?
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And soccer, along with basketball to a lesser degree, doesn't have problems both on and off the field?
Certainly not like the nfl. I mean is it even close what league has the most issues? The nfl is responsible for a massive medical cover up and is now botching kneeling and protests. It’s also decreased dramatically in overall quality of play and is all over he map with new rules and replay.
It’s a disaster.
Well, we can discuss this further in Qatar in 2022 and watch Neymar flop together.
While CTE issues will likely dampen prospects in this country, the growth of more youth flag football could help football grow internationally, especially in lower income countries (e.g. South America). Without the need for (costly) helmets/pads, flag football becomes nearly as cheap as soccer which could help the sport grow organically. Get some youth flag football going in these countries and its only a matter of time before the big $$ college boosters arrive!
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In comment 14008982 njm said:
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And soccer, along with basketball to a lesser degree, doesn't have problems both on and off the field?
Certainly not like the nfl. I mean is it even close what league has the most issues? The nfl is responsible for a massive medical cover up and is now botching kneeling and protests. It’s also decreased dramatically in overall quality of play and is all over he map with new rules and replay.
It’s a disaster.
Well, we can discuss this further in Qatar in 2022 and watch Neymar flop together.
I hate the flopping too. But it doesn't change the fact that more than 270 million people play soccer worldwide - and the argument of the OP was about the decline in the player pool.
Soccer is the perfect sport for the younger generation that doesn’t want commercials and wants to enjoy a game in under 2 hours of time. You can shit on it all you want but it won’t change the big problems the nfl faces, among the largest of which is the pace of game and never ending stoppages.
I could see hockey benefiting. The best league in the world is already here and there are more Americans in the NHL than ever, and the physicality will appeal to football fans more than flopping soccer prettyboys.
I could see hockey benefiting. The best league in the world is already here and there are more Americans in the NHL than ever, and the physicality will appeal to football fans more than flopping soccer prettyboys.
Fall lacrosse
I’ll watch the Sunday Night game if it’s a good match up.
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But worldwide, basketball is just so much better at marketing the game and its stars.
Look at the Chinese market - which is HUUUUUUUGE. The NBA has been a factor there since around 1992. Same here in Europe. I would say that the NBA is around 10-20 times as popular over here. (right now I am in Italy and I see NBA jerseys all over. Same when I lived in Thailand. People in South East Asia don't care about football - Badminton is HUGE compared to football)
Regarding soccer. Don't underestimate the fact that you guys just won the World Cup. With social media and everything - and soccer stars being very active on social media - soccer will keep evolving in the US. I remember 20 years ago when Europeans joked around and said that any midlevel club over here could beat the US national team. It's not like that anymore. Not even close.
IMO Football is/was peaking with the Peyton/Favre/Brady era and will start a slow decline. (sadly) I hope I am wrong but the number of players is a factor and the failed attempt at international growth is as well.
NBA is a sham with the mega teams and all the rest are tanking for the lottery. I haven't watched in years.
Agreed - But the NBA is so big internationally. The stars are mega stars in China, India and Korea and they know how to market the game internationally. It's not even about playing games in London and Mexico. It's about being able to play the game. Having the stars travel and market the game and most of all it is about branding and pop culture. MJ started it when he wanted players to wear their own shoes. Jordan shoes/ LeBron and NBA jerseys have secured the NBA internationally for the next 40-50 years.
I disagree. But even worse is that fewer boys playing it means the talent pool is shrinking more and more each year. The product will only get worse.
I hate the flopping too. But it doesn't change the fact that more than 270 million people play soccer worldwide - and the argument of the OP was about the decline in the player pool.
My comment about meeting in Qatar was a snarky way of pointing out a serious problem. As much as we in the US complain about the NFL Commissioner and league, and righty so, I think I'd choose them over FIFA.
And I agree that soccer will always have more players, easily, than football worldwide.
Right after they make boxing and MMA non-contact sports.
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Doesn't matter if you played football. Most diehard fans never played it. Everyone plays soccer as a kid, yet it never catches on professionally here.
I disagree. But even worse is that fewer boys playing it means the talent pool is shrinking more and more each year. The product will only get worse.
Moreso if football becomes un-insurable through more medical studies then you're talking about an existential threat from the roots on up.
First, I expect that as the tests for CTE become more commonplace, it will be revealed that it's occurring in a very high % of football players, and it's starting young, like, after a single season of high school football in some guys. So a lot of parents will steer their kids away from the game and a lot of young men will opt for other sports.
Second, as that information comes out, the game will become uninsurable. The NFL can self-insure, some states where football is a religion will try having the government become the insurer, but there's simply going to be too much damage to too many people.
Will it go away entirely? Probably not. It's been 50 years since the dangers of smoking became widely known, and people still smoke. But smoking is much less popular and legally restricted in many places. Football will face a similar challenge.
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It will remain a sport dominated by foreign teams that a majority of football fans will have little interest in.
I could see hockey benefiting. The best league in the world is already here and there are more Americans in the NHL than ever, and the physicality will appeal to football fans more than flopping soccer prettyboys.
Fall lacrosse
Lacrosse is a pretty terrible spectator sport
First, I expect that as the tests for CTE become more commonplace, it will be revealed that it's occurring in a very high % of football players, and it's starting young, like, after a single season of high school football in some guys. So a lot of parents will steer their kids away from the game and a lot of young men will opt for other sports.
If it were a very high percentage then we would have had a crisis in middle age dementia in males for the last 50 years. There certainly is a risk, but that's hyperbole.
Football is the most "gambling friendly" game of them all and fantasy football seems to be more popular than ever.
Baseball and hockey aren't (relatively speaking) gambling friendly sports, and while soccer may appear more to gamblers, its not a TV friendly sport that is likely to ever capture the attention-deficit minds of the younger generation.
Football game are once a week affairs (primarily all on the same day) - primarily during the fall/winter months when many are captives in their homes. A perfect set-up for the ham-and-egg gambler that most of us are.
Pete Rozelle knew it a long-time ago. The "NFL-gambling-television" trifecta will be hard to beat and will be with for a long time.
20 years ago, people said soccer was on the cusp of taking over all sports in the US and you still here that, football was surpassing baseball. NBA was an afterthought.
I think there's a better chance they figure out some CTE prevention equipment, rules or adjustments and football is still in king.
sundays in the snow, referees whistle blows we've been warriors toe to toe...football.....
would they really have wrote those words if it wasn't here to stay (even though technically horse racing is the sport of kings I believe)?
You simply can’t say that about any other sport. I know people who like basketball, soccer, hockey, baseball but none of those sports have any kind of broad appeal in the US. Walk around the office on a Monday and there is always some buzz about football. That never, ever happens for the other sports in any consistent way. You get a version of it with big events (NCAA Tournament, World Cup) but not to the same extent.
There’s no national “conversation” about baseball or hockey. The NBA gets a little bit just with player movement but nothing about games.
I think the most likely outcomes in 20 years would be 1) Football is still king; 2) Nothing is king. Our culture continues to become more and more decentralized and everyone has their own interests and leagues have their little pockets of fans but there’s no real collective interest or “national sport”.
Frankly I think #2 is inevitable in the long run, I don’t know how long it will take, maybe longer than 20 years. You already see it with music and TV. With some limited exceptions there’s no real expectation other people will be familiar with a new album or new show.
Football is the most "gambling friendly" game of them all and fantasy football seems to be more popular than ever.
Baseball and hockey aren't (relatively speaking) gambling friendly sports, and while soccer may appear more to gamblers, its not a TV friendly sport that is likely to ever capture the attention-deficit minds of the younger generation.
Football game are once a week affairs (primarily all on the same day) - primarily during the fall/winter months when many are captives in their homes. A perfect set-up for the ham-and-egg gambler that most of us are.
Pete Rozelle knew it a long-time ago. The "NFL-gambling-television" trifecta will be hard to beat and will be with for a long time.
I think its the networks and advertisers that have a problem with televised soccer, not the fans.
20 years ago, people said soccer was on the cusp of taking over all sports in the US and you still here that, football was surpassing baseball. NBA was an afterthought.
I think there's a better chance they figure out some CTE prevention equipment, rules or adjustments and football is still in king.
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It's the sport of kings, better than diamond rings it's why we're here to sing...football.
sundays in the snow, referees whistle blows we've been warriors toe to toe...football.....
would they really have wrote those words if it wasn't here to stay (even though technically horse racing is the sport of kings I believe)?
*hear* I need to hire a proof-reader (or add a disclaimer to every post that I know the difference between hear and here and there and their and they're and your and you're, no know, etc. but sometimes I just don't care enough to pay attention....until I re-read it)
It was a million times better than commercials every stoppage or even the TV timeouts.
But with what we're learning with head injuries, and the changing landscape of how people want to be entertained, I could see football becoming less popular.
I mean, even getting people to want to go to a game is becoming a challenge nowadays, they want to go to one a year at most and find it a hassle.
The NFL brings in $7 billion dollars in TV revenue each year. That isn't just better than all other sports -- it completely dwarfs their revenue. 2nd place is the NBA with $2.7 billion per year. The NBA could double their revenue (which is virtually impossible) and still be well behind the NFL. (As for the NHL, it only brings in $200 million per year. It's silly to think that the NHL would benefit much from football fans tuning out. People know the NHL exists. They're just not watching because they don't care.)
The NFL is going to have to go into a prolonged death spiral to lose its place of dominance. It could happen. But millions of people watch habitually, even though they admit they don't enjoy it as much as they used to. And getting all those people to break that habit would certainly take a long time.
I don't watch it either (though I saw a game in London where the entire pub was rabidly fanatical and it was kind of cool to witness - the fans more than the game), but the advertising excuse about why it hasn't reached the same US popularity that is has global popularity is weak IMO.
I'm sure there's a reason, but it's not the advertising/stoppage of play IMO.
You'll still be able to block; or 'shave' a batter with a 125 mph pitch,drive to the basket,practice your soccer 'dive', buttend your opponent, or pull the razor or sandpaper out of your trunks, or whatever your favorite sport entertainment allows...just vicariously.
We will watch on our wall sized tv, and bet online actively.
But just so we can release our emotions together in some
kind of a arena, we will crave the one contact activity allowed.... ROLLERBALL.