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NFT: Mets Minors 7/13/2018-Kelenic = beast

DanMetroMan : 7/13/2018 7:32 am
AAA Crismatt
AA TBD
A+ TBD
Columbia TBD
BK TBD
Kingsport Taveras
GCL TBD
DSL1
DSL2

- Not Met related by 2018 pick Joey Bart has started his career with 6 homers over his first 13 games played wow

AAA
Kaczmarski 1-4 2 k's
Guillorme 0-4, K
Alonso 2-4, HR, 2b, 2 k's
McNeil 1-4, K
Smith 1.2 innings 1 hit 0 runs 0 walks 2 k's

AA
Nido 1-4, 2b, 2 k's
Tebow 1-4, K
Blackham 1 perfect 2 k's

St. Lucie
GImenez 0-3, 2 k's
Sanchez 1-2
Peterson 5.1 innings 11 hits 5 runs 1 walk 4 k's (He's been awful so far in A+ (27.1 innings 35 hits 13 walks 14 k's 5.93 era)

Columbia
Tiberi 2-4, 2b, K
Winaker 0-4
Manea 0-4, K
Brodey 0-3
Dibrell 6 innings 5 hits 1 er 0 walks 6 k's (Excellent start, 0 walks vs. 6 k's for a guy who has had trouble throwing strikes... nice)

BK
Sharp 3-5, K
Rasquin 3-5, 2 2b
Vilera 7 innings 3 hits 0 runs 1 walk 9 k's

Kingsport
Newton 2-4, HR, BB, 2 k's
Santana 0-3, BB
Vientos 1-5, K
Kelenic 2-3, HR, BB, K (Beast)
Hernandez 0-3, BB, K (He stinks)
Beracierta 1-4, 2b, K

GCL
Mauricio 1-4, 2b (20 game hitting streak)
Consuegra 1-3, BB, K

DSL
Dominguez 5.2 innings 6 hits 2 runs 1 walk 4 k's
Hernandez 0-4, K
Regnault 3-3, 2b, BB
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adam fisher interview with michael mayer  
CMicks3110 : 7/13/2018 9:14 am : link
about trade season. Discussion on how Sandy tried to keep fulmer out of cespedes trade.
https://t.co/TLcKpxCwc2 - ( New Window )
Fulmer  
DanMetroMan : 7/13/2018 9:17 am : link
isn't even all that great. So much mention of him as if he's some big pitcher. Career 3.79 FIP.
Mildly Interesting that  
Defenderdawg : 7/13/2018 9:31 am : link
McNeil played 3B after the Mets spent last week insisting he was a 2B
Kaczmarski played CF after the Mets demoted him for a “true” CF

Less interesting that Kelly and Den Dekker continue to be unable to hit ML
pitching no matter what ML team’s uniform they wear...
RE: Mildly Interesting that  
DanMetroMan : 7/13/2018 9:33 am : link
In comment 14012486 Defenderdawg said:
Quote:
McNeil played 3B after the Mets spent last week insisting he was a 2B
Kaczmarski played CF after the Mets demoted him for a “true” CF

Less interesting that Kelly and Den Dekker continue to be unable to hit ML
pitching no matter what ML team’s uniform they wear...


Both decisions are absurd. McNeil and Kaczmarski should be up. I'm not a massive Kaczmarski guy but c'mon.
Tim Britton on the  
Metnut : 7/13/2018 12:46 pm : link
Ahtletic had a nice column talking about some trade partners with the Mets. He mentioned Cleveland as a good fit given their need in the bullpen and there stud IFs (meaning they'd maybe be more open to trading IF prospects). Cleveland could also use a lefty masher.

How about Wilmer Flores and Jeurys Familia for Nolan Jones? Jones has serious power as a 3B prospect and if he panned out, he'd fill a huge need for the team.

Colorado  
DanMetroMan : 7/13/2018 12:50 pm : link
makes sense for Familia (and some of our other pieces) they are suddenly "in it".
Arizona  
DanMetroMan : 7/13/2018 12:50 pm : link
has checked in on Wheeler.
what kind of return  
pjcas18 : 7/13/2018 1:16 pm : link
would you want for Wheeler?

He's not a TOR, but his only full season he had a 3.55 FIP and now that he's healthy he's right around there again.

He's more valuable than his stats indicate.

and he's got another year until FA.

Some team's top 30 prospect or would this be another middle reliever?

If it's a reliever I'd rather keep Wheeler.
I'd want an MLB  
Metnut : 7/13/2018 1:22 pm : link
top 100 prospect for Wheeler. Not expecting a top 50 or even top 75 guy, but Wheeler is throwing great right now and is under team control for another year.

We should get a legit piece or two back for Wheeler. He might be the best pitcher dealt at this deadline.
Wheeler  
DanMetroMan : 7/13/2018 1:23 pm : link
for Varsho and Shipley would do it for me.
No way I’m trading Wheeler for anything less  
ZGiants98 : 7/13/2018 7:42 pm : link
Than a blue chip prospect when guys like Chatwood, Lynn, and Cobb just got what they got on the open market. No way.
RE: No way I’m trading Wheeler for anything less  
pjcas18 : 7/13/2018 7:43 pm : link
In comment 14012845 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Than a blue chip prospect when guys like Chatwood, Lynn, and Cobb just got what they got on the open market. No way.


that's my thoughts too, otherwise I'd just keep him for 2019 maybe look to deal him at the deadline then if not in contention due to impending FA.
If the Mets trade Wheeler before the deadline this year  
Jay on the Island : 7/13/2018 7:47 pm : link
They will definitely get a top 100 prospect for him. They won't get a top 50 guy but they could still get a good prospect for him.

If they wait until next year they will get much less assuming he stays healthy which isn't guaranteed.

Not only that if he demonstrates health  
ZGiants98 : 7/13/2018 7:48 pm : link
Through the whole year until we shut him down he might even be worth more in the offseason. Now he’s a “injury risk”.
RE: If the Mets trade Wheeler before the deadline this year  
ZGiants98 : 7/13/2018 7:49 pm : link
In comment 14012850 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
They will definitely get a top 100 prospect for him. They won't get a top 50 guy but they could still get a good prospect for him.

If they wait until next year they will get much less assuming he stays healthy which isn't guaranteed.


I’m not interested in a 50-100 guy.
why can't we resign Wheeler?  
CMicks3110 : 7/13/2018 11:05 pm : link
..we have a ton of money coming off the books and i like where he is going.

I think that we have a major opportunity for a rebuild if we can sign Machado.

I think we need to go all in on him, and if we can't sign him then we can go into firesale mode.

We're dropping Cabrera ($8 m), Familia ($8 mil), Mesoraco (Harvey) ($8 mil), Reyes ($2 m), Ramos ($8 mil), Wright ($15 m - shocked if he doesnt retire); possibly Flores ($5 mil), and we will lose salaries of Swarzak, Frazier, Vargas, Lagares next year, and Cespedes the following year. We should have a ton of flexibility to sign Wheeler, deGrom and Machado and build around them.

Arbitration raises shouldn't be outrageous given the inconsistent performances of Conforto, d'Arnaud, Matz, Plawecki
RE: why can't we resign Wheeler?  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 10:22 am : link
In comment 14012948 CMicks3110 said:
Quote:
..we have a ton of money coming off the books and i like where he is going.

I think that we have a major opportunity for a rebuild if we can sign Machado.

I think we need to go all in on him, and if we can't sign him then we can go into firesale mode.

We're dropping Cabrera ($8 m), Familia ($8 mil), Mesoraco (Harvey) ($8 mil), Reyes ($2 m), Ramos ($8 mil), Wright ($15 m - shocked if he doesnt retire); possibly Flores ($5 mil), and we will lose salaries of Swarzak, Frazier, Vargas, Lagares next year, and Cespedes the following year. We should have a ton of flexibility to sign Wheeler, deGrom and Machado and build around them.

Arbitration raises shouldn't be outrageous given the inconsistent performances of Conforto, d'Arnaud, Matz, Plawecki


We can. I don’t really understand the logic of wanting to upgrade all three units as opposed to just two. Rotation is basically set for next year. We aren’t doing a complete 3-4 year rebuild so fans just need to except it and if we are doing just a “re-tool”... we are going to need starting pitching.
“Accept”  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 10:22 am : link
.
Of course the Mets can  
pjcas18 : 7/14/2018 10:29 am : link
re-sign Wheeler, however, looking at this deadline and the fact this season has been effectively over for a month, dealing Wheeler for a younger, cost controlled, higher upside player would be selling high on Wheeler.

Wheeler has always been highly regarded but never remained healthy enough to deliver, now that he's healthy do you really want to bank on the fact he'll remain healthy and/or a high performer?

It wasn't that long ago he was demoted to AAA.

I wouldn't give him away, but if the Mets get what they want for him and trade him and don't think twice about it. As opposed to a long-term extension.

It all comes down to value  
Eric on Li : 7/14/2018 10:38 am : link
if they can get a good return on him (i.e. not junk, a real prospect they'd be excited about around the top 5 in the org) - then you consider it. It saves money and adds a young player presumably with upside at or beyond wheeler in terms of WAR contribution over time since he'd be younger.

The only way you really lose a trade like that badly is if Wheeler becomes a true ace - which is a remote outcome. You could convince me things click enough that he can enjoy a healthy 3-5 year run like AJ Burnett post NYY (a lot of their career numbers are very similar and both dealt with arm issues). In his 4 years with Pitt he was worth 11 WAR, so that sets the bar with a prospect reasonably high. It's got to be someone you think can be an above average regular. And trading him now would forego the injury risk over that period of time which is significant for any pitcher, let alone one who has had issues like Wheeler.
Like I said I’m not opposed to it  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 10:45 am : link
But we better be getting a blue chipper back that we can drool over and if we are going to just “re-tool” and going for it again next year what’s the solution to replace him? Go spend 60 million on some shitty MOR type like Chatwood when that money could better be spent on a closer or hitter? There’s nobody in AAA close yet.
I think we're  
pjcas18 : 7/14/2018 10:48 am : link
all in agreement. Which is a rarity. LOL.
Does this team win though?  
bigbluehoya : 7/14/2018 10:48 am : link
[insert C]
Dom Smith
McNeill
Rosario
Machado
Bruce
Conforto
Cespedes

JdG
Synder
Matz
Wheeler
Vargas

Effectively nothing in the bullpen

It’s not a terrible team, but it doesnt scream “contender” to me.

I’m not a Mets fan, but I think they’d be wise to cash one or two chips strategically and line up resources for a 2020 push coinciding with the arrivals of Kelenic and Gimenez.

The haul that a deGrom (or Noah) trade would bring could have the 2020 core looking beastly even before any free agent spending is factored.

Just for shits:

(Catcher)
Dom Smith
Gimenez/McNeill
Rosario/Gimenez
Andujar
Clint Frazier
Kelenic
(Right Fielder)

Thor
Justus Sheffield
Jonathan Loaisiga
Matz
Wheeler

That team right there probably isn’t winning, but that’s probably a sub-$75m payroll, and it doesn’t factor in any minors graduation beyond Kelenic/Gimenez/McNeill. Sprinkle in $75-100m of free agent spending on top of that and you have a big time contender IMO.


Think about this
Wheeler has value.  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 10:49 am : link
What he’s doing this year is likely his floor which is a solid 3 starter but from a pure “stuff” standpoint he might rival any ace in baseball. I’m not convinced he’s not still getting better too. This is basically only his second full season in the majors.
RE: Does this team win though?  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 10:55 am : link
In comment 14013035 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
[insert C]
Dom Smith
McNeill
Rosario
Machado
Bruce
Conforto
Cespedes

JdG
Synder
Matz
Wheeler
Vargas

Effectively nothing in the bullpen

It’s not a terrible team, but it doesnt scream “contender” to me.

I’m not a Mets fan, but I think they’d be wise to cash one or two chips strategically and line up resources for a 2020 push coinciding with the arrivals of Kelenic and Gimenez.

The haul that a deGrom (or Noah) trade would bring could have the 2020 core looking beastly even before any free agent spending is factored.

Just for shits:

(Catcher)
Dom Smith
Gimenez/McNeill
Rosario/Gimenez
Andujar
Clint Frazier
Kelenic
(Right Fielder)

Thor
Justus Sheffield
Jonathan Loaisiga
Matz
Wheeler

That team right there probably isn’t winning, but that’s probably a sub-$75m payroll, and it doesn’t factor in any minors graduation beyond Kelenic/Gimenez/McNeill. Sprinkle in $75-100m of free agent spending on top of that and you have a big time contender IMO.


Think about this


So you left off our best hitter? Where’s Nimmo? Sounds like Cespedes is going to shift to 1B and I’m not opposed to Alonso seasoning himself in AAA for another year of it allows Cespedes to stay on the field. You can’t count on Cespedes anymore but you would have Alonso in reserve if he got injured again and Machado replaces him as the stable bat in the middle of the lineup that makes everything tick. A Nimmo, Machado, Conforto, Cespedes, Bruce, Rosario, McNeil, Plawecki/TDA is certainly a lineup I could live with if we keep the SP in tact. Obviously, we would need to address the bullpen as well. You can’t just sign Machado and call it an offseason.
That's fair - like I said, the value has to be there to move him  
Eric on Li : 7/14/2018 10:56 am : link
I'd only do it for someone who definitively enters the top 5 prospect convo in this org. That's a pretty high bar with Gimenez, Kelenic, Alonso, Dunn and Peterson. The pitchers seem clearly a level behind the 3 hitters, so ideally the return would come from the universe of minor league SP better than Dunn (probably a reasonable but not huge list).
RE: That's fair - like I said, the value has to be there to move him  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 10:57 am : link
In comment 14013042 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
I'd only do it for someone who definitively enters the top 5 prospect convo in this org. That's a pretty high bar with Gimenez, Kelenic, Alonso, Dunn and Peterson. The pitchers seem clearly a level behind the 3 hitters, so ideally the return would come from the universe of minor league SP better than Dunn (probably a reasonable but not huge list).


Agreed.
And obviously this Machado stuff  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 10:59 am : link
Is all theoretical and pie in the sky before somebody jumps in and screams we aren’t signing him.
Ces and Bruce have effectively turned into  
spike : 7/14/2018 11:00 am : link
DHs
My bad on Nimmo and Alonso  
bigbluehoya : 7/14/2018 11:03 am : link
Doesn’t change my opinion that Operation2020 is the best course of action for NYM. I don’t think Machado is realistic for NYM anyhow.

(Of course, that operation doesn’t need to include trading deGrom or trading with the Yanks. It was merely an example given my knowledge of the Yanks system)
RE: Ces and Bruce have effectively turned into  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 11:05 am : link
In comment 14013046 spike said:
Quote:
DHs


Well we don’t know if Bruce can make it back healthy or not yet but we do know Cespedes’s issue is chronic. Moving Cespedes to 1B might be the only way to salvage some of his contract over the next year or two. I still like the idea of swapping Bruce for Shaw if possible.
“Pie in the sky again”  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 11:13 am : link
But...

DeGrom
Syndergaard
Wheeler
Matz
Oswalt/Vargas

Nimmo
Machado
Conforto
Cespedes
McNeil
Rosario
PlaweckiTDA
Lagares (of FA CF)

Kimbrell
McGee(traded for Bruce)
Gsellman
Lugo
Swarzak
Peterson
Bashlor/D. Smith

Is a team I am very excited about heading into 2019 and is basically accomplished by signing two guys and clearing a lot of dead weight.

If I’m the Mets I’m trying to clear as much salary as possible  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 11:27 am : link
Swap Bruce for another bad contract but hopefully you still trim “some” salary. Trade Frazier, Flores, Bautista, Cabrera, Familia, Blevins, Mesoraco and..... beg Wright to settle.

You should still bring back a few interesting prospects which would help push the system back firmly to “middle of the pack” heading into 2019 and use all the freed up money to make a splash or two.
Peterson  
DanMetroMan : 7/14/2018 11:29 am : link
has been scary bad at a level he should be pitching well at. It's early but I'm already concerned.
Gsellman  
spike : 7/14/2018 11:32 am : link
Is the next closer
RE: Gsellman  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 11:36 am : link
In comment 14013073 spike said:
Quote:
Is the next closer


I hope not. There’s actually like 4-5 quality closers on the market this offseason. We need one of them.
I think the point I’m trying to make is  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 11:45 am : link
Not that we need Machado and Kimbrell to get back to being competitive again but simply that with some re-tooling/clearing salary we could be only 2-3 quality additions away from fielding a good team again if we kept the rotation together. Maybe you can’t sign Machado. Maybe you sign Moose and get a better bat in CF that’s not “elite” but also doesn’t cost a fortune. Maybe you sign Dozier and move McNeil to 3B. Maybe there’s a trade out there for a bat not yet on the radar.
Dozier  
DanMetroMan : 7/14/2018 12:02 pm : link
is 32 next season and having a bad year, would be so Mets to sign him
The Phillies are working on acquiring Machado  
Jay on the Island : 7/14/2018 12:11 pm : link
Unfortunately I have believed for some time that the Phillies were going to be the team that signs him in the offseason. The Braves will also reportedly go hard for Machado in free agency and they will have over 70 million available to spend. I still expect him to end up in Philly as they have a lot of room as well.

Philly is also exploring trading for Britton as well as Machado which will force them to give up several prospects including Sixto. I would love to see them give up all that and then lose Machado in free agency lol.
RE: Dozier  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 12:16 pm : link
In comment 14013090 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
is 32 next season and having a bad year, would be so Mets to sign him


Hadn’t checked his numbers recently but was really just throwing some stuff out there.
RE: The Phillies are working on acquiring Machado  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 12:23 pm : link
In comment 14013093 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
Unfortunately I have believed for some time that the Phillies were going to be the team that signs him in the offseason. The Braves will also reportedly go hard for Machado in free agency and they will have over 70 million available to spend. I still expect him to end up in Philly as they have a lot of room as well.

Philly is also exploring trading for Britton as well as Machado which will force them to give up several prospects including Sixto. I would love to see them give up all that and then lose Machado in free agency lol.


The AAV wouldn’t be a problem for the Mets either. The question would be if the new front office would have a change in philosophy on giving out “length”. Sandy’s on record saying he does not believe in long term deals unless it’s a unique circumstance(face of the franchise type) but maybe a new GM thinks differently? I also think the Mets are pretty much locked into Nimmo, Rosario, and Conforto as far as the lineup. I think I’m all in on McNeil being a 4th piece at this point. You’re probably not going to do better than Plawecki at C so that’s 5 spots. Cespedes/Alonso is likely your 1B in 2019. That leaves only one or two spots to upgrade (if you can clear Bruce). There’s not going to be a lot of options for the Mets/new office to make a “splash” and generate excitement. Way to early, and I know the Yankees, Phillies, and Braves, will all be involved... but I could see us as a dark horse.
Regardless of whether Wright settles or not  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 12:27 pm : link
He has two years left and his 20 million AAV anchor is dropping to 15 now. That albatross is finally coming to an end. Theoretically, you could backload Machado a little bit and he ends up replacing Wright on the payroll without changing things much at all.
The 2 big areas to improve to me are CF (& moving Yo) and BP  
Eric on Li : 7/14/2018 1:30 pm : link
They need to get better defensively and more athletic in general so getting a stud in CF, plus putting plus defenders in the corners, would go a very long way to helping. There's no safe bet like Lorenzo Cain in FA this year, but maybe someone like AJ Pollock is worth exploring. And obviously going in that direction means moving Yo...somewhere.

Can Yo play 1st and will it help keep him healthy? I have no idea. But we know from an attitude standpoint he's probably not a great choice to rebuild/retool around. So they may as well try him at 1st the rest of this year but then be ready to investigate equally large/terrible contracts to swap him for this offseason to open up CF. It goes without saying you do the same with Bruce.

The BP is simple - they need to just spend the money to get high-QUALITY relievers, not middle of the road or past their prime guys. The Yankees have proven that strategy works for the past 4-5 years with Miller, Robertson, Chapman.

If they bring back Frazier at 3B for another year it's not the end of the world, but clearly a position worth upgrading if possible. Same with 2B and the young(ish) duo of Flores/Mcneil. Though obviously you trade Frazier and Flores if you can get something decent back.

In the "crazy ideas" category, here are 2 trade ideas:

1. Wheeler for Ender Inciarte. He's having a down year, but he's on a good contract and would go a long way to fixing the CF and leadoff problems.

2. Bruce or Yo + Wheeler for David Price. Everyone except wheeler is crazy overpaid, but obviously this would be mostly a contract swap. Red Sox get out of what looks like a real bad contract, a replacement starter who may be an upgrade, and perhaps a piece that can help them at 1B. Mets get a very expensive #3 starter, but if he bounces back a much better use of $ than Bruce/Yo.
David Price  
spike : 7/14/2018 2:10 pm : link
is overrated.
RE: David Price  
Eric on Li : 7/14/2018 3:06 pm : link
In comment 14013127 spike said:
Quote:
is overrated.


How do you think Jay Bruce (30m remaining) and Yoenis Cespedes ($75m remaining) are rated around the league right now?
I just think we need that stud  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 3:40 pm : link
Middle of the lineup hitter that Cespedes was supposed to be. He can’t be relied on anymore with his chronic legs. Nimmo, Conforto, etc. are good supporting hitters but you need the straw in the middle to stir the drink. I don’t think Inciarte is going to cut it. Gotta get that Piazza/Delgado/Cespedes(from two years ago) type to carry you for stretches when the rest of the lineup is up and down. Somebody like that at least a transforms our lineup to “average” again and with our starting pitching that’s likely all we need.
If you can clear Bruce  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 3:42 pm : link
It at least opens the possibility of adding a corner OF again even though I agree a true CF that can hit makes more sense. Your just not going to find another “Beltran” again. Nimmo wouldn’t be the worst in CF if we got a impact corner guy.
they need to find that cleanup type hitter for 1B  
Eric on Li : 7/14/2018 3:50 pm : link
And it could be Cespedes or it could be Alonso. But 1B is the position that's currently wide open and the easiest position to find that kind of hitter.

Since Acuna can play CF, Inciarte is a really appealing target to me for Wheeler. He's 27 years old, signed reasonably for 3 more seasons after this one plus an option year. He's a tough to strike out, high average leadoff hitter with some speed who can obviously play great defense at a premium position. If it wasn't the Braves, I'd say throwing in Bautista would make sense to give them a new LF'er also but that reunion is probably not of interest to them.
I appreciate your perspective  
ZGiants98 : 7/14/2018 4:15 pm : link
But I still can’t head into a new season with Thor/deGrom (theoretically if you keep them you have to be going for it) and feel good about Cespedes/Alonso as my rock in the middle of the lineup. They are both massive question marks right now. I also don’t know how you replace Wheeler without overspending on some crappy middle of the road starter type.
RE: I appreciate your perspective  
Eric on Li : 7/14/2018 4:39 pm : link
In comment 14013159 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
But I still can’t head into a new season with Thor/deGrom (theoretically if you keep them you have to be going for it) and feel good about Cespedes/Alonso as my rock in the middle of the lineup. They are both massive question marks right now. I also don’t know how you replace Wheeler without overspending on some crappy middle of the road starter type.


That's all fair. Since there are more starters in general, to me it's easier to find a #3 SP than a great defensive CF who also contributes offensively (there are only 5-10 of those guys total, at most).

The 1B FA market mostly sucks next year, but that's why I think it's critical that they use the 2nd half of this year to try to see what they have with Cespedes. Alonso's defense worries me and he hasn't exactly lit up AAA yet, so certainly not penciling him in anywhere yet.

Btw who the hell knows if it's realistic, but I kind of like David Price as a target in some kind of salary dump for salary dump trade this offseason. He's still only 32 and it would probably do him well to be in a situation with a lot less expectation (plus NL and pitchers ballpark). Only issue is the BOS outfield/dh is crowded so there's no open positions for the big salaries we have to dump.
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