I thought this article was interesting on how hitters approach the game and how much analytics really affect their approach, shift or not.
Daniel Murphy:
It's really difficult to get three hits in one inning. If you hit three singles, it's one run. If you get a walk and a double, you might get one run. If you get a double and a single, you might get one run. So my goal is to touch second base every single time I step to home plate. If I'm not mistaken, somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 percent of ground balls go for extra-base hits. If I want to touch second base, I'm not going to be able to hit the ball on the ground. Pulled ground balls are not really base hits in this league anymore.
If I drop a bunt down, what am I gonna do? I'm stuck at first base, so what I've done is ask our ballclub to get two more singles, or I've asked someone else to hit a double. If 7 percent of balls on the ground go for extra bases, someone is probably going to have to hit one in the air to score me from first. So what I've tried to do is hit a double every single time because it's really difficult to get three hits. |
Kyle Seager:
| I used to try to manipulate my swing to hit balls to the left side of the infield and create some easy hits. I'll still try to do it at times, depending on where guys are positioned, but a lot goes into it. It depends on the situation in the game. How many outs are there? Are there runners on base? If there are two outs and I get into a 2-0 count and I hit a little ground ball to the shortstop hole, that probably wasn't as productive a team at-bat as it could have been if I ended up hitting a double somewhere. |
Matt Carpenter:
| There's this whole narrative of 'Why don't guys just hit ground balls to short?' The answer is: (a) It's not that easy and (b) it's the complete thing you've taught yourself your entire baseball career to avoid. If a guy has a chance to hit a homer and a double, and he goes up there trying to slap a ground ball to short, the other team is perfectly fine with that. |
Shift or not, seems like hitters are trying to hit the ball in the air more to give their teams a better opportunity to score runs. Would abolishing the shift help hitters? Doesn't sound like it.
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It won’t matter for guys like Judge, but it will for players like Didi who have power but would probably be better if those singles started falling in where they should.
Sounds like he is barely more successful than the 7% of ground balls that go for doubles.
I think you are correct in that eliminating the shift might help individual's batting averages, but it may not help score runs. If you hit a single, you need to steal second or get two more singles to get that run home. That is hard.
Does Didi going 2-3 with two singles and no runs scored help the team any different than 0-3 trying to drive the ball, or swing the fences? Sure you can blame it on the guys behind him, but unless they are swinging to drive the ball too, the odds of them getting three singles in an inning to score Didi are slim.
Sounds like he is barely more successful than the 7% of ground balls that go for doubles.
Statistically speaking, 7% of the ground balls he hit should be part of the 43 doubles he ended up with. The more interesting stat would be what percent of time he scored a run when he had an extra base hit versus a single.
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As defenders, when a guy comes up and hits a ground ball to short [to beat the shift], we still go to the same place the next time. It doesn't change anything. You look at the guys they shift on, and they're paid to drive the ball. People aren't doing it against Billy Hamilton and guys like that.
I think you are correct in that eliminating the shift might help individual's batting averages, but it may not help score runs. If you hit a single, you need to steal second or get two more singles to get that run home. That is hard.
Does Didi going 2-3 with two singles and no runs scored help the team any different than 0-3 trying to drive the ball, or swing the fences? Sure you can blame it on the guys behind him, but unless they are swinging to drive the ball too, the odds of them getting three singles in an inning to score Didi are slim.
Absolutely it is different. If there is a runner on first in those sitiations then Didi is moving that next player into scoring position. As individualized as baseball is it isn't 100 individualized.
And even if there isn't a runner on first to begin with Didi made the pitcher throw more pitches in the situation where he had multiple hits. Plus, some pitchers don't throw as well when runners are on base. Some pitchers are much better from the wind up than the stretch. It definitely changes the game.
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As defenders, when a guy comes up and hits a ground ball to short [to beat the shift], we still go to the same place the next time. It doesn't change anything. You look at the guys they shift on, and they're paid to drive the ball. People aren't doing it against Billy Hamilton and guys like that.
I think you are correct in that eliminating the shift might help individual's batting averages, but it may not help score runs. If you hit a single, you need to steal second or get two more singles to get that run home. That is hard.
Does Didi going 2-3 with two singles and no runs scored help the team any different than 0-3 trying to drive the ball, or swing the fences? Sure you can blame it on the guys behind him, but unless they are swinging to drive the ball too, the odds of them getting three singles in an inning to score Didi are slim.
Absolutely it is different. If there is a runner on first in those sitiations then Didi is moving that next player into scoring position. As individualized as baseball is it isn't 100 individualized.
And even if there isn't a runner on first to begin with Didi made the pitcher throw more pitches in the situation where he had multiple hits. Plus, some pitchers don't throw as well when runners are on base. Some pitchers are much better from the wind up than the stretch. It definitely changes the game.
Agree with you Robbie. To me it's similar to all the strikeouts now and those saying they don't matter, an out is an out. There are such things as productive outs and a K isn't one of them.
People keep saying this. It isn’t easy and the game is about power right now so opposite field singles aren’t the primary goal. The shift can’t stop a home run and that’s what teams are going for.
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to the opposite field more eludes me. There's a reason the shift wasn't used in, say, the '50s and '60s - guys would have just hit the other way more, and the shift wouldn't have worked.
People keep saying this. It isn’t easy and the game is about power right now so opposite field singles aren’t the primary goal. The shift can’t stop a home run and that’s what teams are going for.
I get that early in an inning. But with men on second and third and two out, you still see batters bring to hit into the shift when that opposite field single would be huge. That's the part I don't like.
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to the opposite field more eludes me. There's a reason the shift wasn't used in, say, the '50s and '60s - guys would have just hit the other way more, and the shift wouldn't have worked.
People keep saying this. It isn’t easy and the game is about power right now so opposite field singles aren’t the primary goal. The shift can’t stop a home run and that’s what teams are going for.
True but wouldn't a few hits the other way bring teams out of the shift and in turn make it easier in later AB's?
The shift needs to go, or atleast be modified. Basketball and Football have illegals defense in place, I don’t see why they can’t do the same in baseball.
The shift needs to go, or atleast be modified. Basketball and Football have illegals defense in place, I don’t see why they can’t do the same in baseball.
Yeah I guess you're right. I mean if guys were really just good overall hitters teams wouldn't shift on them to begin with. They'd be out of position too many times.
I wouldn't mind the shift being modified either but I'd really like to see more guys become better all around hitters, and away from how important the HR has become. HRs are exciting but to me the game isn't the same or as beautiful when it's all or nothing.
Probably a bit old school thinking on my part but in a way the game has become boring with the shifts and all the strikeouts.
With all the analytics, pitchers are told where to pitch the ball to ensure that batters have a higher probability of hitting into the shift. Will they make mistakes? Sure. And those mistakes usually end up as homers or line drives instead of shift beating grounders because of the approach of the hitters.
Doesn’t make any sense, you don’t put the ball in play when walking...
Harper has discussed the strike zone. Players are striking out at a record rate because umpires are calling far more strikes. I think baseball has to address this.
Harper has discussed the strike zone. Players are striking out at a record rate because umpires are calling far more strikes. I think baseball has to address this.
I believe the data shows that umps have become more accurate at calling the zone, likely due to Pitch f/x. It’s more that they were calling many strikes as balls before.
So if you want to change things the zone should be made smaller,
Yeah I agree on the two strike approaches, and this whole 'clogging the bases' nonsense is silly, but the foremost reason hitters aren't changing their approach is because it is hard under normal circumstances and much harder with pitching as good as it has become.