OK, the fantasy season prep continues.
Deciding on my keepers in a 5-keeper league. I don't lose draft picks for the keepers. I also traded OBJ for the #1 draft pick in the upcoming draft which will be one Saquon Barkley, barring anything unforeseen. Here are my current projected keepers:
Dalvin Cook
Derrick Henry
Joe Mixon
Jordan Howard
Deshaun Watson
Here are other guys on my roster that could be argued are keeper worthy (some more than others and with some 'if's and caveats):
Russell Wilson
Jerick McKinnon
Travis Kelce
Josh Gordon
Greg Olsen
Robert Woods
Doug Baldwin
Jay Ajayi
So, draft strategy is that, after taking Saquon Barkley first overall, I will have 5 RBs and will not use any other picks on RB for the rest of the draft. An argument can be made that my team would be better served keeping Travis Kelce, Woods, Baldwin, or Josh Gordon (if it looks like he will actually be a player this year) rather than Joe Mixon, and then still taking Saquon and perhaps a mid to late round flier like Kerryon Johnson, Aaron Jones (whose ADP I expect to rise), or Nick Chubb, to round out the position group.
However, I have the 6th overall pick as well, so I expect to follow up Saquon with a player such as Travis Kelce, Woods, or Juju Smith-Schuster (who should be available as well). It will be all about grabbing WR's after the first round, and even then it will likely be a poor group as all of the top guys will be expected to be kept and the rookie crop is so lacking. However, my hope is that by having 5 tremendously good RB options, I could swing a trade to bolster that group if needed, and as long as I'm getting dominant production from RB, QB, and have positional advantage at TE, I will be a tough out in every matchup even if my WR corps lacks name-brand talent.
As for the other guys I'm not keeping, first, I do feel there's a good chance to get Kelce at #6 overall, or another strong TE (Ertz is not likely to be kept). Josh Gordon I can't trust. Baldwin is tempting but hurt, and expected to miss the entire preseason, and I like the upside of Mixon better anyway. I like Woods but not more than the upside of Mixon also.
Brings me to McKinnon...a lot of people are acting like he's a breakout star candidate, and I do think he'll be a useful fantasy asset. I just don't think he's a great player. I like him to go early in the first round of my draft (remember 50 keepers off the board), hopefully before my pick at #6. I just don't think that talent is there and I'm dubious his body will hold up for 16 games as a lead back.
Then there's Russell Wilson vs Deshaun Watson. With what Watson did last year was just too remarkable, and I'd be a fool to risk him on another team next year. Wilson probably carries less risk and is a more proven guy, but Watson is the chance you take for a fantasy title. Because if what he did over 5 games is the real deal...my squad is going to be very tough. Here's the total in those 5 games: 1,472 yards with 18 TDs, seven INTs, 186 yards rushing and a rushing TD.
The plan would be to take a steady QB later such as Philip Rivers or even Eli Manning to serve as the backup should Watson get hurt again.
So, am I screwing the pooch by not keeping a WR in favor of going 5 deep with the strong RB corps?
As far as your question Mckinnon is a much better Keeper than Henry. Henry couldn't beat out Murray and they brought in other backs. The guy will always be in a timeshare. Mckinnon looks great. I would keep a handful of guys over Henry given your situation. Also may want to consider wilson over Watson as plenty of guys have come in had a huge few games and then been awful after injury....see Rg3
Howard will be a good player this year.
I would drop Henry and Mixon and keep Kelce and Baldwin
That would leave you with
Cook, Howard, Kelce, Baldwin, Watson. Then you draft Barkley and a wr or Mixon/Henry if they are there.
Howard is actually good, though. This is a standard scoring league. I think that whole Chicago offense improves now that Trubisky's rookie season is in the rear view and they have added some WR talent in Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and drafted Anthony Miller (and we'll see if Kevin White can give them anything).
McKinnon? I just don't buy the hype. Garoppolo might be the real deal, and that would, by extension, help McKinnon, I just don't think he's actually a good player. Baldwin's injury means we won't see any of him in preseason, and that concerns me. Kelce I think I will be able to draft at #6, so not that concerned to leave him exposed. McKinnon and Howard have roughly the same ADP, but McKinnon is a lot of projection, Howard is a proven RB2 for two years straight, he was very good in 2016. Plus, Nagy (Andy Reid disciple) looks at him like a 3-down back, his offense is going to feature Howard. I think overlooking Howard here would be a mistake.
As far as your question Mckinnon is a much better Keeper than Henry. Henry couldn't beat out Murray and they brought in other backs. The guy will always be in a timeshare. Mckinnon looks great. I would keep a handful of guys over Henry given your situation. Also may want to consider wilson over Watson as plenty of guys have come in had a huge few games and then been awful after injury....see Rg3
10 team league. Henry could beat out Murray. Henry was better than Murray when Henry saw time. They were saving Henry, intentionally limiting his snaps, as they could use Murray while Mariota developed, and Murray was a good player, anyway. I don't care that Dion Lewis might get 10-12 touches per game. What Henry will do with his 20 touches will be very good. Derrick Henry will probably rush for 1200 yards this year. Watch.
Joe Mixon
Travis Kelce
Doug Baldwin
D Watson/Wilson/maybe Howard as trade chip
At 1 take Barkley and 6 take best RB/WR available.
I am not a big fan of Henry or Howard this year. Henry is going to share a lot of the workload with D Lewis and is a non-factor in the passing game. The bears offense stinks and all the focus will be on Howard. I also think Cohen has a mini-breakout this year and eats into Howard's production.
Cook is a no brainer and almost think Kelce is too. Having 5 RB's with two legitimate RB1/RB2 guys, you don't need depth as much as you need top-end starters at other positions. Most weeks 2-3 of those 5 players you are keeping are going to be on your bench. That doesn't make much sense when you have the opportunity to have top-end players start at other positions. You can than also obtain that depth in the first couple rounds.
Disagree on Baldwin too. Yes he gets dinged up here and there, but he is as consistant as they come. Seahawks throw the ball a lot too.
Having a lineup like this...
QB Watson/Wilson
RB Barkley
RB Cook
WR Baldwin
WR xxx
TE Kelce
Flex Mixon
is way better than IMO
QB Watson/Wilson
RB Barkleyy
RB Cook
WR xxx
WR xxx
TE xxx
Flex Mixon
Bench Howard
Bench Henry
As far as baldwin with that knee you cant waste a spot on him.
As far as your question Mckinnon is a much better Keeper than Henry. Henry couldn't beat out Murray and they brought in other backs. The guy will always be in a timeshare. Mckinnon looks great. I would keep a handful of guys over Henry given your situation. Also may want to consider wilson over Watson as plenty of guys have come in had a huge few games and then been awful after injury....see Rg3
What did you mean by trading a player and not lose a keeper? Are you talking about the OBJ trade? I traded OBJ for a kicker and the swap of draft picks. I couldn't have cared less about the kicker, of course. I traded with the last place team with the thinking he would probably remain the last place team and I'd end up with the #1 overall pick, as draft order is determined by previous season's results. On the flip side, he gets OBJ, which is a very strong keeper. I also got back his 8th round pick. Not sure what do you think is unfair about that?
If it was done prior it is a little better but still not great for him. The first overall pick and and 8th for a dude(who when he traded for him) had a major injury where there is always concern about returning to health. Also putting his team behind the 8 ball with less quality draft picks this season. Doesn't make much sense, but if you got guys like that in your league then may as well take advantage of it.
Then I later traded Alfred Morris and my 7th rounder to the Ezekiel Elliott owner when his suspension was upheld for a 2nd round pick and Jack Doyle. So I did get a 2nd round pick back, but it will be the next to last pick of the 2nd round.
If it was done prior it is a little better but still not great for him. The first overall pick and and 8th for a dude(who when he traded for him) had a major injury where there is always concern about returning to health. Also putting his team behind the 8 ball with less quality draft picks this season. Doesn't make much sense, but if you got guys like that in your league then may as well take advantage of it.
He is a big Giants fan, perhaps is reading this. If both parties agree, hey. Sometimes trades appear lopsided and then it turns out the other way. If every trade was truly even to every observer, trades likely wouldn't happen hardly ever. Honestly, his team really stinks, so getting a stud keeper was pretty good for him.
Deshaun Watson
Dalvin Cook
Joe Mixon
Jerrick McKinnon
Travis Kelce
Drafting Barkley would still give you a dominating core of 4 RBs in Barkley, Cook, Mixon and McKinnon.
Watson if healthy could be a difference maker at the position and good idea to back him up with a veteran like a Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers or Eli Manning in later rounds.
Kelce is a difference maker and the best of your remaining options. I'd consider Baldwin or Gordon too but with Baldwin's injury and Gordon's disappearance from Browns training camp, you can't gamble on them as keepers.
Plus with a pool of Russell Wilson, Jordan Howard, Derrick Henry and a few others, any possibilities to trade them to other teams for higher draft picks?
Draft SB.
If you want Mixon back you could take him at 6, BUT you will most likely take the best WR available. Since you are set at QB, RB and TE you would most likely take the best WR in rounds two and three unless the value is really not there.
Grab a second QB in 4,5, or 6. Otherwise BPA.
Deshaun Watson
Russell Wilson
Travis Kelce
Doug Baldwin (or maybe Olsen if you can flex the TE).
p.s.--And I wouldn't've traded OBJ for the 1st pick.
Deshaun Watson
Dalvin Cook
Joe Mixon
Jerrick McKinnon
Travis Kelce
Drafting Barkley would still give you a dominating core of 4 RBs in Barkley, Cook, Mixon and McKinnon.
Watson if healthy could be a difference maker at the position and good idea to back him up with a veteran like a Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers or Eli Manning in later rounds.
Kelce is a difference maker and the best of your remaining options. I'd consider Baldwin or Gordon too but with Baldwin's injury and Gordon's disappearance from Browns training camp, you can't gamble on them as keepers.
Plus with a pool of Russell Wilson, Jordan Howard, Derrick Henry and a few others, any possibilities to trade them to other teams for higher draft picks?
No offseason trades. All non-keepers go back into the draft pool. I expect a couple of my guys will go early, but that's fine. I am considering keeping Kelce and following up with a WR at #6 overall because of this conversation. Nothing short of catastrophe will keep me from drafting Saquon at #1. After the #6 pick, my next pick won't be until #19. Last year that was C.J. Anderson, one pick after Ameer Abdullah and two picks after Bilal Powell. Oof.
Deshaun Watson
Russell Wilson
Travis Kelce
Doug Baldwin (or maybe Olsen if you can flex the TE).
p.s.--And I wouldn't've traded OBJ for the 1st pick.
The problem was is that I already had Dalvin Cook in my IR spot. I couldn't stash OBJ and I couldn't afford the roster spot to be taken up by injured players. In addition to Cook, I had already lost Allen Robinson and Kevin White (who was a late round flyer), to IR...it was a pretty shitty start to the fantasy season. Plus I just felt that the pick I was getting was almost positively going to be first overall, which is usually pretty valuable. No regrets here, but damn would it be nice to have OBJ (but then I wouldn't be able to get Saquon).
IMO it's Henry's job behind a good OL in a run first offense. Dion Lewis is a 3rd down back.
I already don't have a 4th (Beckham) or 5th (Thomas) and traded away a few more picks.
So it means my team would be Barkley, Beckham, Thomas, 2nd round pick and then a bunch of guys I draft probably 8th round or later.
I still think I may do it, FFL is about studs, consistent low floor high ceiling players.
What would you do?
I already don't have a 4th (Beckham) or 5th (Thomas) and traded away a few more picks.
So it means my team would be Barkley, Beckham, Thomas, 2nd round pick and then a bunch of guys I draft probably 8th round or later.
I still think I may do it, FFL is about studs, consistent low floor high ceiling players.
What would you do?
Remind me who you thought was going to be there at 7?
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and Michael Thomas in a 2-keeper keeper league and you had the chance to trade your 1st round pick (#7) and a 3rd round pick for Saquon Barkley would you do it?
I already don't have a 4th (Beckham) or 5th (Thomas) and traded away a few more picks.
So it means my team would be Barkley, Beckham, Thomas, 2nd round pick and then a bunch of guys I draft probably 8th round or later.
I still think I may do it, FFL is about studs, consistent low floor high ceiling players.
What would you do?
Remind me who you thought was going to be there at 7?
McCaffrey
Freeman
maybe AJ Green or Mike Evans
those are the best 4 or so, add in Gronk if you want.
Top two will be Barkley and Brown, and I believe #1 will take Antonio Brown. But even if he takes Barkley I'd still consider making the trade up.
I think. And then I'd have a trio of Beckham, Brown and Thomas - in a PPR league that could be lethal. If they stay healthy that's 400 targets (conservatively).
with my 2nd round pick I might be able to get Freeman if he slips, my 2nd round pick is #13.
I already don't have a 4th (Beckham) or 5th (Thomas) and traded away a few more picks.
So it means my team would be Barkley, Beckham, Thomas, 2nd round pick and then a bunch of guys I draft probably 8th round or later.
I still think I may do it, FFL is about studs, consistent low floor high ceiling players.
What would you do?
Do it. I would do it. You have to give something to get something. I would get a super stud QB in the 2nd round, so you have OBJ, Thomas, Saquon, and perhaps Watson, then just go for upside with your later picks and fill your roster. Keep an eye on the Seattle TE situation with Jimmy Graham gone. There is a sleeper there.
Just caulk up not have picks till your 8th round the price of doing business.
There's a huge drop off with RB's so don't be left scrambling.
Michael Thomas for my 3rd round pick
Corey Davis for my 7th
Marlon Mack for my 13th
I have the 4th pick in the draft. My plan is to take a RB with my first pick, likely David Johnson. Who would you pick with your 2nd round pick if your options were:
Aaron Rodgers
Joe Mixon
Travis Kelse
Davante Adams
Will not have another selection until the 4th round, so this pick is critical. I have been running mock drafts with AI's, and most often, the aforementioned 4 have been my top options in the 2nd round. I've been taking Mixon because the drop off in RB's is huge, I feel I can wait on QB and TE. Adams is very temping, but I feel RB is the smarter play. What do you think?
Any feedback is appreciated.
Michael Thomas for my 3rd round pick
Corey Davis for my 7th
Marlon Mack for my 13th
I have the 4th pick in the draft. My plan is to take a RB with my first pick, likely David Johnson. Who would you pick with your 2nd round pick if your options were:
Aaron Rodgers
Joe Mixon
Travis Kelse
Davante Adams
Will not have another selection until the 4th round, so this pick is critical. I have been running mock drafts with AI's, and most often, the aforementioned 4 have been my top options in the 2nd round. I've been taking Mixon because the drop off in RB's is huge, I feel I can wait on QB and TE. Adams is very temping, but I feel RB is the smarter play. What do you think?
Any feedback is appreciated.
I'd take Adams over Mixon, he'll likely be gone though.
According to FantasyPros ADP data, he's going at 19 in a PPR. I haven't seen him last that long in the 5 drafts I've done, he's been going around 15-16.
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You think Adams will be gone in a real draft? He's been consistently there in my AI drafts. I probably should try a mock with live individuals just to see a contrast.
According to FantasyPros ADP data, he's going at 19 in a PPR. I haven't seen him last that long in the 5 drafts I've done, he's been going around 15-16.
Thank you. That is interesting. I should have mentioned that this is a non-PPR league.
Hmmm...that gives me food for thought. I do like him, but thought he was a luxury I couldn't afford to take. Now, with these rankings, I may not even get the option to think about taking Adams. I wonder who is going to fall to me in this case? If it is McCaffrey, I'll wet myself.
Russell Wilson
DeAndre Hopkins
Andrew Luck
Evan Engram
Clearly between Wilson and Hopkins...gotta keep Hopkins right?
Russell Wilson
DeAndre Hopkins
Andrew Luck
Evan Engram
Clearly between Wilson and Hopkins...gotta keep Hopkins right?
If there's no round cost, it's Hopkins by a long mile
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18.8 in non vs 19.4 in PPR
Hmmm...that gives me food for thought. I do like him, but thought he was a luxury I couldn't afford to take. Now, with these rankings, I may not even get the option to think about taking Adams. I wonder who is going to fall to me in this case? If it is McCaffrey, I'll wet myself.
He's 19.2 vs 17.6. Not sure why you'd be excited about him in a non-PPR. They already lost Norwell in the offseason and just lost their RT likely for the year... and they have Norv as OC now. Not sure that's a great fit for McCaffrey, unless they really are going to feature him.
The OL is a problem, so that tempers my expectations a bit.
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PPR, 12 team league. Cant keep David Johnson any longer so my choices are:
Russell Wilson
DeAndre Hopkins
Andrew Luck
Evan Engram
Clearly between Wilson and Hopkins...gotta keep Hopkins right?
If there's no round cost, it's Hopkins by a long mile
Agree with this. Hopkins...you can wait on QB and still get a really good one.