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NFT: Fantasy Keeper advice please

ArcadeSlumlord : 8/8/2018 2:47 pm
FYI I have no 2nd round pick as I traded for an extra 3rd. I am locked into these 2 players for keepers:

DeAndre Hopkins for a 3rd round pick
Kareem Hunt for a 3rd round pick (rookie rule)

My question is I have one more keeper to make and I am struggling with who to take.

Value wise I am leaning toward Ertz, upside however could be McKinnon. Anyway, what should I pick for my 3rd and final keeper?:

Jerrick McKinnon for a 5th round pick
or
Zach Ertz for a 9th round pick

I figure I can grab a stud RB in Round 1 to go with Hunt and McKinnon and be REAL strong this year (hopefully Saquon! to roll the rookie rule over to next year)

Thoughts?
Take the RB  
dep026 : 8/8/2018 2:52 pm : link
simple.
RE: Take the RB  
ArcadeSlumlord : 8/8/2018 2:55 pm : link
In comment 14032620 dep026 said:
Quote:
simple.


thats what i thought too but Ertz might be the new fantasy Gronk and at 9 thats robbery
One, what do you mean you traded a second for a third?  
robbieballs2003 : 8/8/2018 2:57 pm : link
Two, with your format I dont see a lot of RBs that'll be available. When do you pick?
McKinnon  
Mike from SI : 8/8/2018 3:02 pm : link
is the much safer pick. Take him and don't look back. Ertz is nice but you can't project him to be Gronk (or even Kelse)--of course there's some chance I'm wrong, but play the percentages.
McKinnon  
eric2425ny : 8/8/2018 9:05 pm : link
Ertz is constantly injured. If you have a strong core of RB’s you can always deal one for a TE once injuries start to affect other teams. It’s inevitable.
I think the answer lies  
djm : 8/8/2018 10:13 pm : link
In who you think you can get in round 5? If that spot isn’t very intriguing or deep with talent I’d keep the RB. If you think you can get a starter at wr or rb in round 5 I’d have to consider keeping ertz. Thing is with all those keepers the pickings in round five are probably pretty slim.
Going with the RB!  
ArcadeSlumlord : 8/9/2018 9:35 am : link
So to explain to Robbie, last season I traded a future 2nd round pick for someone elses future 3rd and McKinnon. I did that so I could keep two 3rd round designation players (rookies are always a 3rd, and Hopkins I drafted last season in the 4th so I needed a 3rd). Otherwise I would have had to pay a 2nd anyhow! Now turns out my luck McKinnon ends up the lead back in San Fran and was an UDFA in our league. UDFA's I found out yesterday are a cost of 6th (even better than the 5th round I thought).

I won our league last year by hitting on Hunt, Marvin Jones and with Bell and some other cowbells.

Even though TE is scarce and Ertz could be a beast, I think I will be streaming TE's all season. I will try to get a top RB or Saquon in Round 1 (we dont know our draft positions yet) and probably grab my WR #2 and #3 in rounds 4 and 5.

Where ya'll taking QB's this season?

Thanks for the help fellas.
RE: Going with the RB!  
EricJ : 8/9/2018 9:43 am : link
In comment 14033174 ArcadeSlumlord said:
Quote:
I will try to get a top RB or Saquon in Round 1

Where ya'll taking QB's this season?



How do you know whether Barkley is worth a first round fantasy pick? Is it the hype? The Giants have not been able to run the ball in years. Look, I hope we CAN and that Barkley ends up being a huge producer but in the 1st round of fantasy you need to go with as much of a sure thing as possible. If you miss on this pick it could really hurt you.

I am not taking a QB until after the 8th round. The difference in weekly fantasy production between the QBs is not significant. So, you are better off drafting another RB or WR higher.
The QB difference is a common view  
pjcas18 : 8/9/2018 10:04 am : link
but it is not always true.

at least not in my league with 6 pts per passing TD.

Last year (2017) season, Russell Wilson was #1 rated QB and the difference between him and #10 (Goff) was 92 points or 7 pts per week. Matt Ryan was #15 and the difference was over 144 pts or 10 pts per week (assuming a 14 week regular season)

the #1 WR was AB in my league (PPR, not sure if that matters) and #10 was AJ Green and the difference was identical to Wilson and Goff but #15 was Doug Baldwin and the difference was only 8 pts per week or so. and the grouping of WR's and RB's as you get in the 15 or so ranked range are more plentiful and the drop off not as severe.

Now I'm not saying take a QB early but understand the drop off for QB's is steeper and the options are less.

RE: The QB difference is a common view  
YAJ2112 : 8/9/2018 10:17 am : link
In comment 14033202 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but it is not always true.

at least not in my league with 6 pts per passing TD.

Last year (2017) season, Russell Wilson was #1 rated QB and the difference between him and #10 (Goff) was 92 points or 7 pts per week. Matt Ryan was #15 and the difference was over 144 pts or 10 pts per week (assuming a 14 week regular season)

the #1 WR was AB in my league (PPR, not sure if that matters) and #10 was AJ Green and the difference was identical to Wilson and Goff but #15 was Doug Baldwin and the difference was only 8 pts per week or so. and the grouping of WR's and RB's as you get in the 15 or so ranked range are more plentiful and the drop off not as severe.

Now I'm not saying take a QB early but understand the drop off for QB's is steeper and the options are less.


Of course, Rodgers and Brady were the top 2 QBs drafted last year not Wilson. Wilson was around 5 or 6. Goff was undrafted. Ryan was a top 7 guy. While there may have ended up being separation, no one was predicting things to fall the way they actually did.

FYI, those stats are for the full season - not just the fantasy season. So not sure why you would divide by 14 - you should divide by the number of games each QB played. The divide between Wilson and Goff was more like 5 points per week. Not bad when one cost you a 5th or 6th round pick and one was free.

RE: RE: The QB difference is a common view  
pjcas18 : 8/9/2018 10:41 am : link
In comment 14033218 YAJ2112 said:
Quote:
In comment 14033202 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


but it is not always true.

at least not in my league with 6 pts per passing TD.

Last year (2017) season, Russell Wilson was #1 rated QB and the difference between him and #10 (Goff) was 92 points or 7 pts per week. Matt Ryan was #15 and the difference was over 144 pts or 10 pts per week (assuming a 14 week regular season)

the #1 WR was AB in my league (PPR, not sure if that matters) and #10 was AJ Green and the difference was identical to Wilson and Goff but #15 was Doug Baldwin and the difference was only 8 pts per week or so. and the grouping of WR's and RB's as you get in the 15 or so ranked range are more plentiful and the drop off not as severe.

Now I'm not saying take a QB early but understand the drop off for QB's is steeper and the options are less.




Of course, Rodgers and Brady were the top 2 QBs drafted last year not Wilson. Wilson was around 5 or 6. Goff was undrafted. Ryan was a top 7 guy. While there may have ended up being separation, no one was predicting things to fall the way they actually did.

FYI, those stats are for the full season - not just the fantasy season. So not sure why you would divide by 14 - you should divide by the number of games each QB played. The divide between Wilson and Goff was more like 5 points per week. Not bad when one cost you a 5th or 6th round pick and one was free.


It always depends on the alternatives. You can't assume your 6th round pick was going to be Alvin Kamara. Why wouldn't it be Spencer Ware? or CJ Anderson, or someone who shits the bed?

I used fantasy points not stats. that's why I divided by 14. but if you want to remove the last 2 games of the season and adjust feel free, I'm comfortable by numbers are at least directionally correct.

And your assumption then is the WR's and QB's were drafted in ranked order too.

They weren't. Adam Theilen was a top 10 WR in my league, Tyreek Hill was 4th. They weren't drafted top 10.

Again, I'm not saying to draft a QB early necessarily, but when you go back and look at draft results this was the BBI league 6th round and I'd say taking a QB is better than probably 75% of the picks in this round. At that point the QB's taken were Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Ryan (and I believe both you and Eric had taken QB's by this time)

Round 6
1. Sammy Watkins (KC - WR)
2. Jarvis Landry (Cle - WR)
3. Delanie Walker (Ten - TE)
4. Russell Wilson (Sea - QB)
5. Doug Martin (Oak - RB)
6. Tevin Coleman (Atl - RB)
7. DeVante Parker (Mia - WR)
8. Kyle Rudolph (Min - TE)
9. Derrick Henry (Ten - RB)
10. Adrian Peterson (Ari - RB)
11. Zach Ertz (Phi - TE)
12. Tyler Eifert (Cin - TE)
RE: RE: RE: The QB difference is a common view  
YAJ2112 : 8/9/2018 11:12 am : link
In comment 14033251 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14033218 YAJ2112 said:


Quote:


In comment 14033202 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


but it is not always true.

at least not in my league with 6 pts per passing TD.

Last year (2017) season, Russell Wilson was #1 rated QB and the difference between him and #10 (Goff) was 92 points or 7 pts per week. Matt Ryan was #15 and the difference was over 144 pts or 10 pts per week (assuming a 14 week regular season)

the #1 WR was AB in my league (PPR, not sure if that matters) and #10 was AJ Green and the difference was identical to Wilson and Goff but #15 was Doug Baldwin and the difference was only 8 pts per week or so. and the grouping of WR's and RB's as you get in the 15 or so ranked range are more plentiful and the drop off not as severe.

Now I'm not saying take a QB early but understand the drop off for QB's is steeper and the options are less.




Of course, Rodgers and Brady were the top 2 QBs drafted last year not Wilson. Wilson was around 5 or 6. Goff was undrafted. Ryan was a top 7 guy. While there may have ended up being separation, no one was predicting things to fall the way they actually did.

FYI, those stats are for the full season - not just the fantasy season. So not sure why you would divide by 14 - you should divide by the number of games each QB played. The divide between Wilson and Goff was more like 5 points per week. Not bad when one cost you a 5th or 6th round pick and one was free.




It always depends on the alternatives. You can't assume your 6th round pick was going to be Alvin Kamara. Why wouldn't it be Spencer Ware? or CJ Anderson, or someone who shits the bed?

I used fantasy points not stats. that's why I divided by 14. but if you want to remove the last 2 games of the season and adjust feel free, I'm comfortable by numbers are at least directionally correct.

And your assumption then is the WR's and QB's were drafted in ranked order too.

They weren't. Adam Theilen was a top 10 WR in my league, Tyreek Hill was 4th. They weren't drafted top 10.

Again, I'm not saying to draft a QB early necessarily, but when you go back and look at draft results this was the BBI league 6th round and I'd say taking a QB is better than probably 75% of the picks in this round. At that point the QB's taken were Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Ryan (and I believe both you and Eric had taken QB's by this time)

Round 6
1. Sammy Watkins (KC - WR)
2. Jarvis Landry (Cle - WR)
3. Delanie Walker (Ten - TE)
4. Russell Wilson (Sea - QB)
5. Doug Martin (Oak - RB)
6. Tevin Coleman (Atl - RB)
7. DeVante Parker (Mia - WR)
8. Kyle Rudolph (Min - TE)
9. Derrick Henry (Ten - RB)
10. Adrian Peterson (Ari - RB)
11. Zach Ertz (Phi - TE)
12. Tyler Eifert (Cin - TE)


How many Fantasy points did Wilson/Goff according to what you are looking at?
Wilson  
pjcas18 : 8/9/2018 11:19 am : link
had 424 and Goff had 332.

My point again is not to necessarily take a QB early, but given your other options and the fact there are exponentially more WR/RB options doesn't preclude someone from taking a QB.

And the one example where you, Eric and I all drafted together you both took QB's in the 3rd (Brady) and 4th (Ryan) yet support "don't take a QB until after the 8th round" approaches.

I have no issue with your picks of Brady or Ryan where they went and my posting of the 6th round shows Russell Wilson might be the best pick of that round or top couple for a variety of reasons.
RE: Wilson  
YAJ2112 : 8/9/2018 1:19 pm : link
In comment 14033298 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
had 424 and Goff had 332.

My point again is not to necessarily take a QB early, but given your other options and the fact there are exponentially more WR/RB options doesn't preclude someone from taking a QB.

And the one example where you, Eric and I all drafted together you both took QB's in the 3rd (Brady) and 4th (Ryan) yet support "don't take a QB until after the 8th round" approaches.

I have no issue with your picks of Brady or Ryan where they went and my posting of the 6th round shows Russell Wilson might be the best pick of that round or top couple for a variety of reasons.


I think if you do the math, you'd find those are full year numbers for 2017 based on your leagues current scoring system.

Yes, I took a QB early last year. I specifically targeted Brady last year as I thought with the addition of Cooks that he was poised for a monster 40+ TD season that would put him far and away as the number 1 QB. I knew even if I was wrong, that his floor was a top 5 QB and in that event I'd just have to work harder to make up whatever I lost at the other positions by going QB so early.

In prior years, there have typically been a couple of tiers of QB that were clearly ahead of the rest of the group. Last year, there were only a couple of outlier performers and the rest were bunched quite closely together - to the point where late/undrafted guys like Alex Smith, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz were amongst the best in the game.

This year, no one is jumping out to me as clearly separable from the pack. The usual top guys (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Wilson) all have their issues as do some of last year's breakouts (Wentz, Watson). And the pack in the next tier is huge and all capable of putting up top 10 numbers. There are easily 12 QBs that I would be absolutely happy with as my starter, and another 6-8 that while I like them less than the first group don't see any reason why they can't perform similarly.

I've always been a QB early guy and will probably still take one earlier than most because I don't want to just settle for anybody. But where in most years that earlier would have been in the 3-5 range, this year it won't be until the 7-9 range. I will still take a guy that I want, but if weird things happen I won't panic if I end up having to get someone in that group outside my top 12 either. The difference in replacement value is just too small this year to jump on a QB super early.

Even if they are full year numbers  
pjcas18 : 8/9/2018 1:30 pm : link
Goff was helped more by game 15 than Wilson was by 15/16 IMO.

Goff sat out the meaningless week 16 game.

Anyway it's irrelevant, I think we're in general agreement.

I have almost never taken a QB earlier than Wilson in our draft last year.

And I agree, no clear cut QB's this year that stand out. I think you can get guys like Luck or Stafford in the 8 - 10 range and do fine, but....if my choices are Russell Wilson or Devin Funchess (for example) as highest rated available player in the 6th round I'm taking Wilson.

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