NFT: Mets Minors 8/14/2018- Stink City comes to town

How are you handling the rest of this season? Are you still watching games? Are you boycotting the rest of the season? Interested in seeing what the young guys like Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil, and Rosario can do the rest of the way?

I find myself still tuning in. Love to see Noah, Jake, and Wheeler throw, I am interested in seeing how the young position players finish out the season (hopefully strong), and interested in seeing if we have some keepers in the pen. The team as a whole has also played better ball since the ASB.

My buddy has given up watching the Mets for the rest of the year because of all that has happened and because they keep playing guys like Bautista and Reyes.

Just wanted to gauge how other Met fans are going about the rest of the season.

DeGrom and Thor are truly special players. No Mets fan, yet alone a general fan of baseball, should be missing their starts. Regardless of how the team is playing, it�s rare to have one, yet alone two generational pitchers on a staff. Enjoy the minutia of each of their starts.

Once they get pulled, I can�t blame any Mets fan for tuning out the rest of the game.

Hopefully they pull up alonso (I know it's a Longshot)
The kids are getting playing time without pressure hopefully it helps their development

Felix Valerio is now 16 for his last 42 10/3 BB/K. Have never heard of him, he's very small and haven't seen any writers mention him but that's still a nice run.
Endy Rodriguez has an .877 OPS with more walks than K's. As always DSL numbers... multiple grains of salt #Mets

Since you asked, I'll tell you. I'm beginning to waver as a Mets Fan since I moved Charleston SC. As a youngster in 1961, the Yankees were the only games on TV/Radio. They had a couple of guys hitting homers at a prodigious pace, and the dominated the American League all the way to the World Series.

But that winter I heard about a new team being put together from scratch -- what a concept !! They could pick players from the established teams, and they had the manager from the old Yankees dynasty. They could get off to a good start (the first of my many incorrect baseball predictions). I watched them draft Frank Thomas, and Jim Hickman, characters like Pumpsie Green and Choo Choo Coleman. I went to the Polo Grounds with the local Fireman's Bus Trip. My Dad bought me a genuine plastic Mets Batting Helmet that I wore proudly at our sandlot pickup games.

Well we all know how those early years unfolded. But before too long they started bringing up good pitching prospects like Koosman and Seaver. They made a few good trades, and in 1969 they won the damn thing. In a world gone crazy with Men walking on the Moon and political upheaval, they pulled it off.

Since that time my favorite part of baseball is watching a minor leaguers develop.

Fast Forward to current times. The team is stagnating with bad business decisions and meddling owners. Not helping matters is the fact that the Southeast is Atlanta Braves country, and I am getting inundated with happy talk about the Bravos. Their games are always on TV and their "A-team" hats are on every head. And their Farm System is Loaded. They have minor league pitchers seemingly falling out of the palmetto trees. They promote steady infielders and their outfielders set records for first year players. I will always hate the Glavine/Maddox era Braves. But this current bunch plays good solid baseball.

I'm holding on to whatever shred of Mets Fandom I have left. But it ain't easy being Blue & Orange.

In comment 14038770 gmen9892 said:

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How are you handling the rest of this season? Are you still watching games? Are you boycotting the rest of the season? Interested in seeing what the young guys like Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil, and Rosario can do the rest of the way? I find myself still tuning in. Love to see Noah, Jake, and Wheeler throw, I am interested in seeing how the young position players finish out the season (hopefully strong), and interested in seeing if we have some keepers in the pen. The team as a whole has also played better ball since the ASB. My buddy has given up watching the Mets for the rest of the year because of all that has happened and because they keep playing guys like Bautista and Reyes. Just wanted to gauge how other Met fans are going about the rest of the season.

I've watched pieces of probably 1 or 2 games a week, for most of the reasons you mentioned - seeing Mcneil, Wahl, Rosario, Drew Smith, etc. Watching Wheeler breakout has been fun too. JDG has been hard to watch bc the team behind him has typically been so terrible and he deserves much better.

I've followed the minors more than the regular team recently and I'd really like to see them call up Alonso because recent history has shown guys like him can have an immediate impact. He's a polished college guy who is by far the best RH hitting prospect they've had in the organization since Wright and by every account a very hard worker too. Their handling of minor leaguers this year (and veterans like Reyes) continues to be the loudest indicator that they absolutely must clean house this offseason in the front office and how they operate as a franchise. I'm optimistic about the talent level within the organization but pessimistic ownership will ever create an environment where the team reaches full potential - which if you think about it has been the story of the franchise for 40ish years now.

you don't like wasting a 40 man spot on one of the worst players in the PCL while refusing to give Guillorme a fair looK?

damn, was curious to see him this year

3 for his last 37, might be wearing down. Plus side is only 4 k's over that time.

Jarrett Seidler
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@jaseidler
24s24 seconds ago
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Replying to @WexlerRules @alxnelson
We discovered on the podcast that the second best prospect still in the org from the 2014 Draft is probably Gabriel Llanes

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After today's scoreless start (3 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 4 K), #Mets 2nd-rounder Simeon Woods-Richardson sports a 0.00 ERA through his first 5 @MiLB appearances:
11.1 IP
2 R
6 H
4 BB
15 K
He's one of two 2018 #MLBDraft picks on the @Mets' Top 30 Prospects list: http://atmlb.com/2EGj4fU

In comment 14038925 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Jarrett Seidler ‏ @jaseidler 24s24 seconds ago More Replying to @WexlerRules @alxnelson We discovered on the podcast that the second best prospect still in the org from the 2014 Draft is probably Gabriel Llanes

Considering Conforto is no longer a "prospect," I would put AA relievers Matt Blackham and David Roseboom over Llanes. But at least we went overslot for Tyler Moore!

done for the day 3 innings 3 hits 0 runs 0 walks 4 k's, Mauricio 0-3, now 3 for his last 41.

point from one of the best posters over at NYFS

"So the great 2017 sell-off, which netted us all these close to ready major league relievers, has yielded us:

- a 12+ ERA for Gerson
- an 8+ ERA for Rhame
- a 2.25 ERA (!!!) for Drew Smith - in his whopping 8 appearances

Plus down on the farm: shoulder injuries for Callahan and Hanhold, a near-5 ERA for Ryder Ryan in Bingo, a near-10 ERA for Nogosek in Bingo. Am I forgetting anyone?

The next good reliever from the farm will be Stephen Villines, who cost us $10k and a 10th round pick. This is why prioritizing relief-only guys in the few trades we've been willing to make is such an insane strategy.

Great work guys."

The top 3 pitchers are looking strong.deGrom, Thor, and wheeler
Rosario, McNeil, Nimmo, Conforto, Flores, and Jackson are young and getting playing time.
All are having some moments where you see potential.
The bad contracts and over the hill talent are going to continue to hurt
Cespedes, Vargas, Bruce, Reyes, Wright etc
And of course to real effort to improve the bullpen.
Hopefully the new GM keeps the kids playing and flushes out the bad contracts and old players.
And actually looks to improve the bullpen

In comment 14038995 larryflower37 said:

Quote:

The top 3 pitchers are looking strong.deGrom, Thor, and wheeler Rosario, McNeil, Nimmo, Conforto, Flores, and Jackson are young and getting playing time. All are having some moments where you see potential. The bad contracts and over the hill talent are going to continue to hurt Cespedes, Vargas, Bruce, Reyes, Wright etc And of course to real effort to improve the bullpen. Hopefully the new GM keeps the kids playing and flushes out the bad contracts and old players. And actually looks to improve the bullpen

1. Rosario has been AWFUL, one of the worst regulars in baseball
2. Austin Jackson is 32 in February and a FA after the season

In comment 14039002 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 14038995 larryflower37 said: Quote: The top 3 pitchers are looking strong.deGrom, Thor, and wheeler Rosario, McNeil, Nimmo, Conforto, Flores, and Jackson are young and getting playing time. All are having some moments where you see potential. The bad contracts and over the hill talent are going to continue to hurt Cespedes, Vargas, Bruce, Reyes, Wright etc And of course to real effort to improve the bullpen. Hopefully the new GM keeps the kids playing and flushes out the bad contracts and old players. And actually looks to improve the bullpen 1. Rosario has been AWFUL, one of the worst regulars in baseball 2. Austin Jackson is 32 in February and a FA after the season

Dan I respect your opinion but I have not given up hope on Rosario. Have you?
I didn't realize Jackson was 31.
I still feel there are building blocks and it is not hopeless like most

have no given up hope on Rosario BUT if we are talking about bright spots he (and Dom Smith) have been anything but in 2018. If anything those 2 having such poor seasons are 2 of the bigger disappointments. Had both (or either) had a breakout things would appear much brighter.

is LAST in baseball in runs saved at SS and has been worth .2 fWAR which is less than Jeff McNeil... in 340 more ab's.

I am looking at flashes. I see flashes in games like last night that show me this kid does have the talent to be a very good MLB player. He had a brutal first half, but you have seen flashes in the 2nd half to point to him maybe turning the corner.

His eye has improved as the season has gone on to the point where he doesnt look lost at the plate. He is finally using his speed on the basepaths with 9 SB in his last 11 attempts the past month and a half.

I am not going to get caught up in his overall stats, but looking forward to seeing a strong rest of August and September from him to head into next year.

we can see whatever we want to see but second half he's been AWFUL.

.205/.253/.284, he's been worse second half than first (and not particularly close) so yeah if you want to look at a certain AB or a certain moment sure. But he's actually gone backwards by the numbers. I get people want to see the positive but he's been really, really bad.

players in baseball have been worse than Rosario since the ASB.

young players. Their lack of development is horrid. It�s hard to get excited about the farm when the norm is to come to the pros and absolutely suck.

So, basically, there are zero things to be excited about with this team.

Jason Vargas last 27 starts 120.2 innings 151 hits 28 HR 53 walks 99 k's 7.34 era. He's 36 in February, don't pretend he's viable depth. Sunk cost. Move on.

that's why they ended up with shitty returns. Reed was the closest thing and he was just a setup man. This year they had Familia to trade which was a big step up in terms of quality. That trade is looking better and better, but they still probably undersold considering it's very possible he was the best reliever available at the deadline by far. He has been lights out in Oakland too.

On level we got for Cabrera if we ate people�s contracts but since we didn�t we got a worthless return.

after a couple very lackluster years in AZ. He wasn't viewed much better his first year in NY.

My point is not that Rosario will definitely break out like Didi did - it's that sometimes young players need patience and a good environment. Selling low or cutting bait too early only has downside. Buy low when you can and similarly be patient with talent when you have it. Rosario clearly has talent - there's no reason to not be patient with him.

And also maybe try to surround him with better players. Cabrera was the worst defensive 2B in baseball this year. Reyes has been the worst defensive IF in baseball the past 2 years. The Mets development sucks in part because they make the same mistakes over and over again. Break in young players on losing teams with shitty lockerrooms without solid players around them and then bail early when they struggle. Throw in a position change to one of the premium defensive positions plus a little public shaming from an unnamed executive and you win Mets player development bingo.

In comment 14039128 Eric on Li said:

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after a couple very lackluster years in AZ. He wasn't viewed much better his first year in NY. My point is not that Rosario will definitely break out like Didi did - it's that sometimes young players need patience and a good environment. Selling low or cutting bait too early only has downside. Buy low when you can and similarly be patient with talent when you have it. Rosario clearly has talent - there's no reason to not be patient with him. And also maybe try to surround him with better players. Cabrera was the worst defensive 2B in baseball this year. Reyes has been the worst defensive IF in baseball the past 2 years. The Mets development sucks in part because they make the same mistakes over and over again. Break in young players on losing teams with shitty lockerrooms without solid players around them and then bail early when they struggle. Throw in a position change to one of the premium defensive positions plus a little public shaming from an unnamed executive and you win Mets player development bingo.

Totally different argument. He said Rosario has been a bright spot, another poster says he's been better second half. Do you honestly agree with these statements? Raise your hand if you would have signed for the years Rosario and Smith had before the year. Sorry, but when fWAR says 25 players in the entire sport have been worth second half, and DRS says youre the worst defensive season at your position.. you were not a bright spot and your second half was not encouraging.

In comment 14039126 bhill410 said:

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On level we got for Cabrera if we ate people�s contracts but since we didn�t we got a worthless return.

Who knows. I won't say it's impossible, but that trade seems like a pretty big outlier. I was thinking back to this past winter and if you think about the entire haul the Marlins got back for Stanton, Yelich, Gordon, Ozuna - 4 literal all stars, 3 of them on great contracts - it's pathetic. Lewis Brinson has been even worse than Rosario. Only 1 guy in their system was ranked in the pipeline top 100 update - and he's a 23 year old OF in AA with a .700 OPS. That's their top prospect right now after selling the core of their team in their primes with term. Not a bunch of rentals who barely even found contracts before ST like Reed, Bruce, Granderson, Walker.

Didi was a league average regular his first full MLB season 1.5 fWAR over 103 games played, he then had a poor 2nd season but year 1 of Didi 91 WRC+, .311 wOBA, -1 DRS

Rosario- (who played 46 games last year to begin with) 72 wRC+, .273 wOBA, -16 DRS. Hoping he develops... all for it. But he's been really, really, really bad. Didi simply was not.

In comment 14039130 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 14039128 Eric on Li said: Quote: after a couple very lackluster years in AZ. He wasn't viewed much better his first year in NY. My point is not that Rosario will definitely break out like Didi did - it's that sometimes young players need patience and a good environment. Selling low or cutting bait too early only has downside. Buy low when you can and similarly be patient with talent when you have it. Rosario clearly has talent - there's no reason to not be patient with him. And also maybe try to surround him with better players. Cabrera was the worst defensive 2B in baseball this year. Reyes has been the worst defensive IF in baseball the past 2 years. The Mets development sucks in part because they make the same mistakes over and over again. Break in young players on losing teams with shitty lockerrooms without solid players around them and then bail early when they struggle. Throw in a position change to one of the premium defensive positions plus a little public shaming from an unnamed executive and you win Mets player development bingo. Totally different argument. He said Rosario has been a bright spot, another poster says he's been better second half. Do you honestly agree with these statements? Raise your hand if you would have signed for the years Rosario and Smith had before the year. Sorry, but when fWAR says 25 players in the entire sport have been worth second half, and DRS says youre the worst defensive season at your position.. you were not a bright spot and your second half was not encouraging.

Sorry I missed where you were responding to someone calling him a bright spot. I agree with you there - I definitely wouldn't call his performance a bright spot. He has been disappointing, as has the majority of the team.

shit has Dom Smith been bad. Amongst 51's with 200 or more PA's he ranks

11th in wRC+
11 in wOBA
BA 8th
OPS 11th


Again.. that's on his own team.

has been a disaster, the #3 prospect in baseball heading in to the season by some, a unanimous top 10 prospect.

and he's not 19 years old. He's 22, 23 in November.

I haven't given up on him, and he has flashed some of what drove his prospect stock, but he's sort of the reason why I don't put a ton of stock into prospect rankings.

Just seems like the Mets have more of these can't miss kids like Rosario, Milledge, F-Mart, going all the way back to Escobar, who miss.

In comment 14039132 DanMetroMan said:

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Didi was a league average regular his first full MLB season 1.5 fWAR over 103 games played, he then had a poor 2nd season but year 1 of Didi 91 WRC+, .311 wOBA, -1 DRS Rosario- (who played 46 games last year to begin with) 72 wRC+, .273 wOBA, -16 DRS. Hoping he develops... all for it. But he's been really, really, really bad. Didi simply was not.

I think OPS is a better stat for comparison here because that entirely evaluates the outcomes of their at bats vs. what happens after (runs scored).

Didi's OPS his first year was .704, fell a little in the next couple years (age 23)
Rosarios career OPS last year was .665, fell slightly this year (age 21/22)

Both were/are high end athletes. That's the potential that made them very highly regarded prospects. But both lacked polish (very low OBP). Despite their speed neither guy is good at stealing bases. Both had some issues with their gloves despite a ton of talent defensively. All of that would lead me to speculate both were somewhat lacking baseball instincts, or their instincts were just behind their natural athleticism. Comparisons don't always work out but I think Rosario/Didi have a lot of similarities in talent level, but truth be told I don't think Didi would have blossomed the way he has if he didn't land in as good of a situation as he did with the Yankees - specifically with how patient they were with him.

stat you choose to use, Didi was league average with the glove his first full season (13th in DRS at SS), ignoring the fact Rosario played a lot more last year than Didi did (21 ab's for Didi) that means "at worst" the Dbacks knew they had a solid glove with "some" pop (7 homers). Rosario is THE WORST SS in baseball this year in terms of DRS. That puts the onus on the bat to be that much better than it's been. There isn't a single positive stat for Rosario this year. Not average, not OBP, not steals, not pop, not glove. Nada. He's been a total zero. 25 qualified SS's, Rosario is 23rd in fWAR ahead of Alcides Escobar and rookie Scott Kingery.

In comment 14039140 pjcas18 said:

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has been a disaster, the #3 prospect in baseball heading in to the season by some, a unanimous top 10 prospect. and he's not 19 years old. He's 22, 23 in November. I haven't given up on him, and he has flashed some of what drove his prospect stock, but he's sort of the reason why I don't put a ton of stock into prospect rankings. Just seems like the Mets have more of these can't miss kids like Rosario, Milledge, F-Mart, going all the way back to Escobar, who miss.

All fair - I think Vegas has hurt the Mets with this in recent years. Conforto had the best outcome and he skipped the level altogether, whenever he went back he hit .400. I think other organizations currently have an advantage of not having such a mismatched environment between their major league team and minor league affiliate. Obviously has nothing to do with why Milledge (headcase), FMart (injuries/traded) and Escobar busted though.

I'm not a prospect expert, but I will say that I think the guys who play great from day 1 are more the exception than the norm. Looking at the top 10 when Rosario was ranked highly last year most of those guys are struggling. Swanson has struggled. Moncada is hitting .220 and K'ing 34% of the time. Crawford's career BA is .202. Meadows and Glasnow just got traded. Would obviously be nice to get the Torres/Benintendi for once though.

(2017 top 10 from MLB pipeline)
1. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox
2. Yoan Moncada, 2B, White Sox
3. Gleyber Torres, SS, Yankees
4. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves
5. Amed Rosario, SS, Mets
6. Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals
7. J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies
8. Victor Robles, OF, Nationals
9. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates
10. Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates

In comment 14039149 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

stat you choose to use, Didi was league average with the glove his first full season (13th in DRS at SS), ignoring the fact Rosario played a lot more last year than Didi did (21 ab's for Didi) that means "at worst" the Dbacks knew they had a solid glove with "some" pop (7 homers). Rosario is THE WORST SS in baseball this year in terms of DRS. That puts the onus on the bat to be that much better than it's been. There isn't a single positive stat for Rosario this year. Not average, not OBP, not steals, not pop, not glove. Nada. He's been a total zero. 25 qualified SS's, Rosario is 23rd in fWAR ahead of Alcides Escobar and rookie Scott Kingery.

From watching him, do you think Rosario has the talent to be a plus defender? Last year his overall defensive rating on FG was similar to Didi's first few years and in year Rosario's DRS was +1. His performance this year has been disappointing with regression across the board but he has visible talents. He isn't the worst defensive SS in baseball the same way Flores was the worst defensive SS in baseball.

Rosario�s struggles and Doms complete dissapearance this year. Maybe, just maybe, the FO has factored that as part of the equation of where
Her or not to call up Alonso?

In comment 14039152 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14039140 pjcas18 said: Quote: has been a disaster, the #3 prospect in baseball heading in to the season by some, a unanimous top 10 prospect. and he's not 19 years old. He's 22, 23 in November. I haven't given up on him, and he has flashed some of what drove his prospect stock, but he's sort of the reason why I don't put a ton of stock into prospect rankings. Just seems like the Mets have more of these can't miss kids like Rosario, Milledge, F-Mart, going all the way back to Escobar, who miss. All fair - I think Vegas has hurt the Mets with this in recent years. Conforto had the best outcome and he skipped the level altogether, whenever he went back he hit .400. I think other organizations currently have an advantage of not having such a mismatched environment between their major league team and minor league affiliate. Obviously has nothing to do with why Milledge (headcase), FMart (injuries/traded) and Escobar busted though. I'm not a prospect expert, but I will say that I think the guys who play great from day 1 are more the exception than the norm. Looking at the top 10 when Rosario was ranked highly last year most of those guys are struggling. Swanson has struggled. Moncada is hitting .220 and K'ing 34% of the time. Crawford's career BA is .202. Meadows and Glasnow just got traded. Would obviously be nice to get the Torres/Benintendi for once though. (2017 top 10 from MLB pipeline) 1. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox 2. Yoan Moncada, 2B, White Sox 3. Gleyber Torres, SS, Yankees 4. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves 5. Amed Rosario, SS, Mets 6. Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals 7. J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies 8. Victor Robles, OF, Nationals 9. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates 10. Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates

Right, that's why I said I don't put much faith in prospect rankings.

what is success for a top 10 prospect? Is it games played? all-star games? WAR?

I think Rosario will improve, the one thing I don't want to hear is that he's injured. If he is, this is the year he should get "it" fixed not push through it.

In comment 14039163 Shecky said:

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Rosario�s struggles and Doms complete dissapearance this year. Maybe, just maybe, the FO has factored that as part of the equation of where Her or not to call up Alonso?

I'm sure it does in the "we screwed up 1 thing, so lets try something new next time no matter the circumstances".

Alonso's performance this year across 2 levels is so far beyond what Smith/rosario showed offensively. Add in the elite exit velocity, his polished approach, and the fact that he's currently 1 year older than both Rosario/Smith right now - forget about age when they debuted. He has already had a much different development path than they had.

on a 22 year old rookie who was such a highly touted prospect. I don't think he'll ever be a top hitter, but my guess is that he'll develop into a solid hitter and a good defensive shortstop.

In comment 14039168 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

Right, that's why I said I don't put much faith in prospect rankings. what is success for a top 10 prospect? Is it games played? all-star games? WAR? I think Rosario will improve, the one thing I don't want to hear is that he's injured. If he is, this is the year he should get "it" fixed not push through it.

This is totally just my own opinion, but I kind of mentally bucket prospects in 3 ways and to your point about not trusting rankings I kind of bake in that 50% of all prospects, including guys the top 10, just won't pan out. Even possibly the #1 prospect in the system.

1. Top tier elite prospects (#1 prospect in the system and top 10-20 overall) these guys are usually standouts from day 1 in the minors who dominate so you'd hope they'd turn out to be day 1 studs in the big leagues like Lindor, Torres, Benintendi, Betts, etc. That's obviously a somewhat unfair expectation, and in Rosario's case it just didn't pan out. On the flip side Thor was elite from day 1.

2. Second tier good prospects (let's say guys who have been consistently in the top 10 in the org and maybe made the top 100 lists someplace) I'm hoping for a solid starter like Nimmo. Conforto was a better than expected outcome, Dom Smith/Cecchini look worse than expected. Matz has been a reasonable outcome. If Plawecki could stay healthy he'd also be a reasonable outcome.

3. Generally everyone else in the system is more of a wild card where there's 1 or 2 skills that maybe have a chance to translate. Sometimes that 1 skill is so good you get a really surprising positive outcome (like Murphy's hit tool or Lagares' glove). Or a late bloomer like JDG. But more often they're guys like Phil Evans.

Obviously you want as many guys as possible in the first 2 categories since a significant percentage will be busts.

He was always regarded extremely high defensively but horribly offensively. However when you spend 50percent of your games in yankee stadium (and road games in some launching pads) you are going to put up power numbers. I would love to see how many homers didi would have in a park adjusted stat to citi field. I have to think it�s around 10. Also Arizona is just as good. I mean look at the joke home runs they hit last night.

Dansby Swanson and JP Crawford have also been big disappointments at the plate.