NFT: Mets Minors 8/15/2018- Snore

Alonso is hitting only 250 at triple A. What does that translate to in MLB? Can the Mets plan for him to play first base or do they need to look outside of the organization for a player?

In comment 14039404 Hilary said:

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Alonso is hitting only 250 at triple A. What does that translate to in MLB? Can the Mets plan for him to play first base or do they need to look outside of the organization for a player?

Alonso is hitting .348 in August with a 1.249 OPS, and .306 with a 1.054 OPS over his last 28 games

What do you think of SWR? Reports I�ve read have been terrific. Is he looking like someone who could turn into something?

The level of �scouting reports� at the GCL level is like travel ball or HS. There is none. But you play the same players over and over again, so it�s self scouting. Mauricio�s current cold streak is exactly what the previous player development always loved to see. So glass half full here.

In comment 14039432 CMicks3110 said:

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What do you think of SWR? Reports I�ve read have been terrific. Is he looking like someone who could turn into something?

Velocity is good and they like his intangibles otherwise it'll come down to 4+ years of development, ability to pick up a breaking ball and durability. If you see him in the next 4 years it would be a shocker.

missed more bats. I feel a bit more optimistic about our position player prospects than I did going into the season but don't see any real difference maker arms to get excited about in the system.

In comment 14039434 Shecky said:

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The level of �scouting reports� at the GCL level is like travel ball or HS. There is none. But you play the same players over and over again, so it�s self scouting. Mauricio�s current cold streak is exactly what the previous player development always loved to see. So glass half full here.

Why are there no HS scouting reports? Just curious. I didn't play baseball in high school, and honestly, no one went to games for 3 years of my high school career. I did track as my spring sport. But in my senior class was a kid (now in his 40's) named Scott Burrell and he threw mid-90's and any time he pitched there were 10 - 15 scouts in attendance, so we started going to high school baseball games.

he was drafted in the 1st round (also a 1st round NBA pick). and he was our football team QB - best athlete I've been around.

Ernest Dove
‏ @ernestdove
20s20 seconds ago

Overall Mets fans should be excited about pitching prospect Anthony Kay in this his 1st season playing in system.
The 2016 1st rd pick has shown a solid assortment of pitches. The FB velocity has looked good. Changeup solid.

21 starts
115 inn
116 Ks

0 HRs in 45.2 inn in High A

Or curve with any degree of regularity since he is coming off tj which may account for lack of Ks. I am guessing they start him next year at AA which is generally when the real coaching begins. Whether he improves next year will be critical harbringer of what they have in Kay.

I am assuming they have to start both Dunn and Kilome in AAA next year right? If so when is last time the Mets had a high upside starter in AAA? Matz?

isn't "that" close if he remains a SP unless his CB needs improves significantly (as does his command). Both very well may a year more past TJ but both need to improve significantly.

In comment 14039533 bhill410 said:

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Or curve with any degree of regularity since he is coming off tj which may account for lack of Ks. I am guessing they start him next year at AA which is generally when the real coaching begins. Whether he improves next year will be critical harbringer of what they have in Kay. I am assuming they have to start both Dunn and Kilome in AAA next year right? If so when is last time the Mets had a high upside starter in AAA? Matz?

Did Fulmer pitch much in AAA? I think he might've topped out in AA yet?

Good points on Kay. The lack of Ks doesn't mean he's not going to make it or be good, it just means he needs to get better. Let's hope he has a big offseason and shows real development next year.

a lack of K's?

Serious question. Not sure what's typical or considered success (especially one year removed from TJS)

7.5 K/9 in high A-ball. I'd like to see that over 10 (at least over 9) at such a low level for a kid who already is 23. 4.3 BB/9 is way to high for that level also.

As he moves up the ranks and faces better hitters, he's going to need improve his stuff as the same stuff will do worse against better competition.

Given the TJ, there's definitely reason to hope that he can improve coming back next year, but it's hard to me to be excited that he'll be a top of rotation arm until I see that improved performance. He's more of a promising "wait and see" guy rather than a "stud" I'm super excited about.

8 starts in A+. I'd hold off on the "lack of K's" proclamation for Kay with that small sample.

when he was over 10 in A and is at 7.5 in A+.

In comment 14039585 pjcas18 said:

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8 starts in A+. I'd hold off on the "lack of K's" proclamation for Kay with that small sample. when he was over 10 in A and is at 7.5 in A+.

PJ,
SAL is an extreme strikeout league. Same was said about Peterson and here we are (so far). I wouldn't put too much credence in the SAL k-rates

context 17 pitchers in the SAL have K/9 over 9.00 vs. 8 in the FSL

the Braves are beyond loaded. The future of the NL East. Ian Anderson at 20 years old leads the FSL in FIP and 2nd in K/9

I'm just saying I wouldn't worry about the lack of K's at this time.

In comment 14039601 pjcas18 said:

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I'm just saying I wouldn't worry about the lack of K's at this time.

Not but in conjunction with 2 members of the BA staff mentioning his breaking ball is below average right now it's relevant.

I think Luis Carpio could be a post-hype sleeper in 2019. Showing new found pop, respectable K/BB. Lost 1 full season of development but still only 22 next season #Mets

if the control "clicks" for him, his pure stuff sounds like a top of the rotation guy - mid/upper 90's, great CB, etc. His numbers so far in bing are going the right direction and if that trend continues I think he probably moves up to being the top pitching prospect in the system. Unbelievable get for Cabrera even if he busts.

Dunn/Peterson/Kay all seem to profile more like #3 starters at best. That's not a terrible thing, good Jon Niese had value, his stuff was just clearly never on the level of Thor/JDG/Wheeler/Harvey.

We'll see how Szapucki/Humphreys come back from TJS next year and how SWR does. But their timelines are obviously all pretty far behind the first 4.

In comment 14039577 Metnut said:

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7.5 K/9 in high A-ball. I'd like to see that over 10 (at least over 9) at such a low level for a kid who already is 23. 4.3 BB/9 is way to high for that level also. As he moves up the ranks and faces better hitters, he's going to need improve his stuff as the same stuff will do worse against better competition. Given the TJ, there's definitely reason to hope that he can improve coming back next year, but it's hard to me to be excited that he'll be a top of rotation arm until I see that improved performance. He's more of a promising "wait and see" guy rather than a "stud" I'm super excited about.

This, plus it usually takes pitchers a full year back before they find their control again.

and Humphreys will be limited by innings (even in the best case) so realistically if either/both are the goods you are looking at 2020 best case (in terms of being in the rotation, I think Humphreys, who I like is getting what I call a Szapucki bounce, being lumped in, one is not like the other but alas you figure 2020 if things go well, 2021 and beyond if they don't. SWR is light years away. If he ever throws a pitch with DeGrom as his teammate color be surprised, same with Santos who I find very intriguing.

find it pretty weak the Mets are citing the weather as to why Peterson's stuff is down... is he the only one pitching in the FSL? lol

In comment 14039621 DanMetroMan said:

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find it pretty weak the Mets are citing the weather as to why Peterson's stuff is down... is he the only one pitching in the FSL? lol

you'd think for an excuse making organization they'd be better at it.

In comment 14039600 DanMetroMan said:

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the Braves are beyond loaded. The future of the NL East. Ian Anderson at 20 years old leads the FSL in FIP and 2nd in K/9

He just made his AA debut last night. The Braves AAA rotation features 5 top 100 prospects, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, Kolby Allard, and Kyle Wilson. That doesn't include top prospect Mike Soroka who is on the 60 day DL.

I would like to see this kid in Low A. He is very young but he is clearly ready for better pitching. The Braves were very aggressive with Acuna, Albies, and now Pache and Riley and it has worked out great so far. Vientos will be a top 10 3B prospect, possibly top 5, in a year IMO.

about this year isn't just the poor record, it's that the Braves and (to a lesser extent) the Phillies, have seemingly passed the Mets by and look better set up long term than the Mets do.

We really need to nail the GM hire this offseason and start loading up our system to compete with this teams.

Part of my optimism over Philly is that I believe their ownership really means it when they indicate that they want to spend big this offseason. The Mets could theoretically do the same, but I think none of us here expect the Mets to win a bidding war with anyone over Machado or Harper.

very intrigued by what the Columbia team might look like next season. Presumably Szapucki will open there, then most of the Kelenic, Mauricio, Cortes, Santana, Newton, Vientos group. Cortes hopefully lands in St. Lucie, and Mauricio's struggles may have them open in Kingsport or BK (in addition to the fact I doubt they want to move Newton to the OF so quickly), Adolph should skip Columbia, some of the BK OF's are mildly interesting. Still, very, very little pitching. This must be addressed.

In comment 14039629 Jay on the Island said:

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I would like to see this kid in Low A. He is very young but he is clearly ready for better pitching. The Braves were very aggressive with Acuna, Albies, and now Pache and Riley and it has worked out great so far. Vientos will be a top 10 3B prospect, possibly top 5, in a year IMO.

I agree. Set him up for success next year by getting his feet wet on adjustments to the new league now. Also allows him to enter riding high, instead of from the standing start of the offseason. Even if he struggles you'd think it would help him going into next year. This is the exact case I'd make for calling up Alonso too.

In comment 14039707 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 14039629 Jay on the Island said: Quote: I would like to see this kid in Low A. He is very young but he is clearly ready for better pitching. The Braves were very aggressive with Acuna, Albies, and now Pache and Riley and it has worked out great so far. Vientos will be a top 10 3B prospect, possibly top 5, in a year IMO. I agree. Set him up for success next year by getting his feet wet on adjustments to the new league now. Also allows him to enter riding high, instead of from the standing start of the offseason. Even if he struggles you'd think it would help him going into next year. This is the exact case I'd make for calling up Alonso too.

It's service time, don't let anyone fool you with the glove BS. Same as Vlad Jr.

benefit to calling up Alonso in September after rosters expand rather than now?

In comment 14039634 DanMetroMan said:

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very intrigued by what the Columbia team might look like next season. Presumably Szapucki will open there, then most of the Kelenic, Mauricio, Cortes, Santana, Newton, Vientos group. Cortes hopefully lands in St. Lucie, and Mauricio's struggles may have them open in Kingsport or BK (in addition to the fact I doubt they want to move Newton to the OF so quickly), Adolph should skip Columbia, some of the BK OF's are mildly interesting. Still, very, very little pitching. This must be addressed.

This is a totally wild ass projection, but I hope next year's top 10 pick is the highest upside SP possible, which would likely be a HS'er. I like Kelenic, but truthfully I would have preferred it this year if there was a player worthy of the pick. The quantity of SP at AA or above next year should be better than it has been since Harvey/Wheeler/JDG were prospects (obviously the quality isn't the same). Upper level depth is ok. Not great but ok. Need to keep adding true high upside arms so hopefully 1 or 2 of them are ready to step in 4-5 years down the road after JDG/Thor. Need to stack numbers because even in a best case scenario half will bust.

In comment 14039709 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 14039707 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 14039629 Jay on the Island said: Quote: I would like to see this kid in Low A. He is very young but he is clearly ready for better pitching. The Braves were very aggressive with Acuna, Albies, and now Pache and Riley and it has worked out great so far. Vientos will be a top 10 3B prospect, possibly top 5, in a year IMO. I agree. Set him up for success next year by getting his feet wet on adjustments to the new league now. Also allows him to enter riding high, instead of from the standing start of the offseason. Even if he struggles you'd think it would help him going into next year. This is the exact case I'd make for calling up Alonso too. It's service time, don't let anyone fool you with the glove BS. Same as Vlad Jr.

It probably is, but I think that's insane for a guy who is already 23. If they are rebuilding, fine wait, who knows when you will compete next.

If they are trying to compete next year and Alonso can be part of the solution, i'd say that's a little bit more important than whether he hits FA in 2025 or 2026 (or whatever the years are).

In comment 14039711 Metnut said:

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benefit to calling up Alonso in September after rosters expand rather than now?

Nope. Service time counts just the same in September.

Within walking distance of the new Augusta GreenJackets ballpark, hopefully the Columbia roster will as be stacked next year is it looks to be right now.

In comment 14039634 DanMetroMan said:

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very intrigued by what the Columbia team might look like next season. Presumably Szapucki will open there, then most of the Kelenic, Mauricio, Cortes, Santana, Newton, Vientos group.

I'm with you on that one Dan. I just hope they play in Charleston early next season. The schedule-maker sometimes has a different idea !!

In comment 14039744 Named Later said:

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In comment 14039634 DanMetroMan said: Quote: very intrigued by what the Columbia team might look like next season. Presumably Szapucki will open there, then most of the Kelenic, Mauricio, Cortes, Santana, Newton, Vientos group. I'm with you on that one Dan. I just hope they play in Charleston early next season. The schedule-maker sometimes has a different idea !!

Current roster is truly horrid but next years team should be a lot of fun. Presumably Cortes is in St. Lucie and as I said tough decision to be made on Mauricio/Newton.

Kiley McDaniel
12:27 He's legit, by almost any definition of the word. He is limited by his physicality, but Gimenez may be a 60 bat and 55-60 glove, so that's still a 2-3 win player if there's little power.
That's Andres Gimenez, SS with the Mets

You gotta catch the Low A rosters before their All-Star break. Anybody who's any good gets promoted mid-year.

In comment 14039755 Named Later said:

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You gotta catch the Low A rosters before their All-Star break. Anybody who's any good gets promoted mid-year.

Worse in the Mets case as they NEVER back fill Columbia from BK because they care about winning games in BK so badly so they promote and then sign Indy ball guys to replace them. Really a guy like Cortes should be in Columbia (Vilera etc)

Felix Valerio 2 for 4, double, 2 runs
Adrian Hernandez 2 for 4, RBI both finishing the year strong. Would be nice to see Hernandez bypass GCL next year and land in Kingsport #Mets

In comment 14039752 DanMetroMan said:

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Kiley McDaniel 12:27 He's legit, by almost any definition of the word. He is limited by his physicality, but Gimenez may be a 60 bat and 55-60 glove, so that's still a 2-3 win player if there's little power. That's Andres Gimenez, SS with the Mets

yeah i'm pretty hopeful the floor is a more athletic and all around better version of Ruben Tejada (without the bad attitude). Tejada produced 7 fwar in his 4 years as a starter, with relatively consistent numbers across the board. Even only a slightly better version of that is not a bad floor. And since he's 19 who knows, maybe there's even more upside.

IMO one of the most impressive things about his season this year beyond the stats is that he's been the best player on the team at each stop this year. Not sure who would even be the 2nd best player he played with. Toffey? Joey Terdoslavich? Matt Paez in St Lucie? Just as a comparison Rosario played a lot of games with Dom Smith and some other big ML producers like Phil Evans hitting behind him. having good players around always helps so Gimenez' season this year is that much more impressive for not really having that and still showing the ability to hit, draw walks, and not K a ton.

a disaster this guy has been
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that's pretty reasonable. He probably just needs to add some strength in the off-season. He could turn into a Ty Kelly type down the line, which I know you love dan

Just needs to add some strength.

In comment 14039889 CMicks3110 said:

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Just needs to add some strength.

He's 24 in February with a .184 OBP in St. Lucie. He's been ab absolute disaster c'mon. He had a .345 OBP with zero power as a 23 year old in the SAL. He sucks.

In comment 14039888 CMicks3110 said:

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that's pretty reasonable. He probably just needs to add some strength in the off-season. He could turn into a Ty Kelly type down the line, which I know you love dan

Again, you are looking at his OBP as an overage guy in the SAL (with a .356 slug) that's not playable.. his season = truly awful. He was 1.5 years OLDER than the average player in the SAL while putting up those numbers

1.5 years older than the league was 4th on his own team (an awful Columbia roster) in wRC+, 4th in wOBA and on his current team he's.... 17th in wRC+ oh and 18th in OBP. He needs more than strength lol

yeah and Ty Kelly played 2b, 3b, CF, RF, LF, SS in the minors... Blake Tiberi...has played 3B and 2b.

As I said... @Mets need minor league pitching... BAD, 0/75 of the top performing pitchers in the minors in 2018 Mets
Link - ( New Window )

why are you so negative. It's not his fault he was drafted in the 3rd round and had expectations placed on him. Would you feel better about him as a player if he was drafted in the 12th round like jeff McNeil?

In comment 14039936 CMicks3110 said:

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why are you so negative. It's not his fault he was drafted in the 3rd round and had expectations placed on him. Would you feel better about him as a player if he was drafted in the 12th round like jeff McNeil?

Why am I so negative? He's been awful. Waste of a pick. Why do I care about his own personal career? I'm a Mets fan, not a Blake Tiberi fan. Are you being serious here? If Barkley was the Giants 6th round pick and he's a bust nobody would say a word, he was a high pick, thus it's talked about. Really absurd statement.

i agree he's a non-prospect. Why even discuss him other than to shit on the kid. He's in the same category as Andrew Church. Just a failed draft pick. We should spend these threads discussing players with upside. I think the Mets farm is about to blossom, probably by mid-next year we could skyrocket. With a core group of prospects centered around Kelenic, Vientos, Mauricio, Santana, Cortes, Dunn, Kay, Peterson, Kilome, Toffey, Alonso.

We're not in terrible shape. We really need some of our power RHRP to really step it up at the ML level. Someone of the group of Bashlor, Wahl, Sewald, D.Smith, Bautista, Callahan, Nogosek, Ryan, Rhame has to develop into something to complement Gsellman,Lugo.

We also need to find a left handed reliever to replace blevins.

a 3rd Round Pick is not that high of a draft pick. How many 3rd Round picks really make it?

didn't make the SAL... top... 51 prospects. Not a typo... the guy running the site felt 51 players (at minimum) were better. How is that "being negative"? A 3rd round college player shouldn't be a career .235/.334/.321 hitter in A-ball. That's a truly awful pick.

In comment 14039942 CMicks3110 said:

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a 3rd Round Pick is not that high of a draft pick. How many 3rd Round picks really make it?

Alex Nelson
‏

@alxnelson
Aug 14
More
Yikes. I know it's only 73 plate appearances, but it's not a good sign when your third-round, polished college hitter is hitting .118 in the FSL two years after getting drafted.

In comment 14039942 CMicks3110 said:

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a 3rd Round Pick is not that high of a draft pick. How many 3rd Round picks really make it?

How many college 3rd round picks are non-prospects this early in their career? Practically none. That's the point. 2017 3rd rounder Quinn Brodey same thing. 2016 5th rounder Woodmansee (retired). Jarrett Siedler on the Mets 2014 draft just yesterday (Siedler a writer for BP AND a Mets fan)

Jarrett Seidler
‏

@jaseidler
Aug 14
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We discovered on the podcast that the second best prospect still in the org from the 2014 Draft is probably Gabriel Llanes
(The best being MLBer Michael Conforto)... so just 3 full seasons out the Mets have ZERO prospects from the 2014 draft still in the minors... oh and posted above... of the top 75 minor league pitchers in 2018... guess how many are Mets... that would be..........0/75

6 Padres, 6 Braves

I speak in facts, you don't like them.. don't know what to tell you.

In comment 14039940 CMicks3110 said:

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i agree he's a non-prospect. Why even discuss him other than to shit on the kid. He's in the same category as Andrew Church. Just a failed draft pick. We should spend these threads discussing players with upside. I think the Mets farm is about to blossom, probably by mid-next year we could skyrocket. With a core group of prospects centered around Kelenic, Vientos, Mauricio, Santana, Cortes, Dunn, Kay, Peterson, Kilome, Toffey, Alonso. We're not in terrible shape. We really need some of our power RHRP to really step it up at the ML level. Someone of the group of Bashlor, Wahl, Sewald, D.Smith, Bautista, Callahan, Nogosek, Ryan, Rhame has to develop into something to complement Gsellman,Lugo. We also need to find a left handed reliever to replace blevins.

" Someone of the group of Bashlor, Wahl, Sewald, D.Smith, Bautista, Callahan, Nogosek, Ryan, Rhame"

Nearly every guy on this list has been a disaster in 2018 here they are by FIP at their most recent level of play-

Bashlor 5.33 (MLB)
Wahl 9.16 (MLB)
Sewald 4.38
Smith 3.28
Bautista 4.76 (AAA)
Callahan (injured)
Nogosek 6.41 (AA)
Ryan 4.71 (AA)
Rhame 4.11 (AAA)

Sure some of these guys may be something but betting on ANY of them is crazy. Overall the Mets RP returns from last year are an utter disaster to this point.

also oddly group together players who likely never see the field together. Ronny Mauricio is 17 years old and 3 for his last 40. If we are lucky he'll see CitiField by the time Jacob DeGrom is.. 35? (he he's resigned), Kelenic... 3 years away minimum, Santana... same thing. Sure they have some prospects.. majority of which are 3+ years away. Dems the facts.

system improving and the 2019 team being better have almost nothing to do with each other. Of the Mets top 10 prospects Newton, Kelenic, Santana, Szapucki, Mauricio have a 0% chance of playing MLB baseball in 2019. Not "maybe"... 0. 2019 more likely than not is going to be a bad team. No Cespedes, and no sure thing in the field anywhere but maybe Conforto. Who are you penciling in as good bets to be league average or better in 2019?

Mets will finish with 2 regulars 2+ fWAR (MLB average starters) or better.. Conforto and Nimmo.

where are we differing? What is your overarching point?

What facts am I putting out there that your disputing?.

I am not in disagreement that the 2014 MLB draft was a disaster for the NYM. It happens though. I am not disagreeing that the Mets have had some very poor scouting and drafting over a number of years. But it's not like it was that long ago that we had a system flush in prospects and people were receiving tremendous praise from all around MLB. I think it was 2013-2016, we were pumping out pitching prospect after pitching prospect - harvey, degrom, syndergaard, matz, wheeler, lugo, gsellman, montero, as well as hitting prospects like darnaud, plawecki, conforto. If you look back to the 2011 draft i think we had like 12 players make it to the MLB from that draft. So one terrible draft doesn't make an organization. Heck we didn't see the fruits of omars scouting until after he was gone - maybe that will be true of Sandy too.

But in order for you to make a larger claim that the Mets are systematically a much more poorly run organization than any other organization you will need the benefit of time to make that argument. As well as a comparative analysis to what other organizations are doing under the same circumstances.

Picking cherries such as Tiberi and Brodey and their failings doesn't give you the authority to make a broad-based judgement about the Mets.

I'm not trying to be a Wilpon/Mets homer here, I deal with data and statistics everyday. I know you have a good handle of your facts, but don't act as if I can't think critically about an assertion you're making. You're cherry picking players that are performing badly. I think you can do the same with every single organization in baseball.

picking? Do I have to do this again?

2014 draft

-Milton Ramos (terrible, dumped for int'l pool $)
-Eudor Garcia (released out of A ball)
-Josh Prevost
-Tyler Moore
-Brad Wieck ( traded for Alex Torres who lasted 3 months here)
-Dash Winningham (released)
-Michael Katz (lasted 1 season)
-Kelly Secrest (mediocre AA reliever)


Since Sandy got here the following college bats were selected top 1 rounds


Cole Frenzel (retired), Danny Muno, Kevin Plawecki (1st), Matt Reynolds (2nd), Jayce Boyd, Richie Rodriguez (retired), LJ Mazzilli, Jared King (retired), Champ Stuart, Matt Oberste, Patrick Biondi, Conforto (stud), Eudor Garcia (JC), Tyler Moore, Michael Katz (retired), David Thompson, Patrick Mazeika, Kevin Kaczmarski, Peter Alonso, Blake Tiberi, Colby Woodmansee, Michael Paez, Gene Cone, Quinn Brody, Matt Winaker.



Top 5 picks 2014-2016

Conforto, Ramos (sold to Baltimore), Garcia (released), Prevost Tyler Moore (retired)

2015
Lindsay, Wotell (traded and released), Thompson, Szapucki, Ingram

2016
Dunn , Kay, Alonso, Tiberi (awful and tommy john), Woodmansee (released), Paez


2017 3rd-11th rounds

Brodey (has been awful) 3rd round
Dibrell (shown some flashes but nearly 23 in low a with WAY too many walks)
Winaker (23 still in low A-ball, has been okay)
Renteria (non-prospect)
O�Neil (non-prospect)
Cobb (24 in St. Lucie)
Chadwick (12.60 era, TJ)
Villines (soft tossing reliever nice season)
Jack Schneider (retired)



From an actual respected prospect writer

"Yeah I really have no idea

And it's even the supplemental and second round guys where you should find real MLB guys, It's across multiple territories too, though mostly SEC guys"

think it's normal to have NONE of the top 75 performing SP in the minors in any given season?

just spoke to a well connected person in the industry on this very topic..

"Yeah but is it scouting, coaching, development? Draft tools aren�t destiny I mean the actual answer is it is probably some of all three and they don�t really have an overarching PD philosophy and they basically run a skeleton PD/analytics department compared to the rest of baseball

Nationally at least. Maybe the J2 guys but they are four years away at best

Their 2017 draft was hella boring

Their 2016 draft was even more boring


But not like any sixes on the sheet

Like the six and later roundp guys whatever

Though even those have been below par

And they have looked immediately bad is the thing

Like Jared King looked fine before the injury

I almost never 2 third/fourth round picks immediately

Thompson has gotten better but he is still emergency help

Woodmansee the worst bat speed I've seen since checking out games in BK, now released

on Villines-

The pitching is especially horrid/risky

85-88, change is legit, slider will he eventually

And advanced command and he changes plane with the fastball really well

Like he's as good as most of the arms they traded for


Which is whatever





"

Is he being negative? Or being honest?

guys is a reference to Mauricio/Hernandez, not the 2 they just signed this July.

Kay, Dunn, Peterson, Alonso, Conforto, Szapucki are (or are potential) contributors from the 2014-2017 drafts, is that significantly worse than can be expected from most ML Clubs. Guess what, there are only 25 roster spots available on a ML team, and there are probably 75 new players brought into an organization each year, or 300 over 4 years. Guess what, MOST DON'T MAKE IT. So you cherry picking those that don't make it, doesn't make a strong argument. Your argument should be is to tell us what the expected hit rate (for identifying a prospect) should typically be VS what it is. And then you need to take into account time to validate poor performance over a large enough sample size. The Mets had terrible 2014-2015 drafts, no one would dispute, but then you have to give them credit for a draft like 2011 (which netted nimmo/fulmer/gsellman/lugo/verrett or 2013 where MLs like Smith, Guillmore, McNeil, Bashlor all have SOME potential; 2012 produced MLs like Cecchini, Reynolds, Koch, Oswalt, Nido, Sewald, Bowman, Flexen - NONE OF THem are great players, but they all have made it to the show. So just looking at 2014-2015 is really really nitpicky.

YOU ARE CHERRY PICKING though. Not to be an ass about it. But most players really don't make it.

really make the majors yes. TOTAL DOA instantly, simply not the case. Really sorry but you are wrong. Guys like Milton Ramos, Eudor Garcia, Woodmansee, Tiberi etc who don't even hit in low A-ball and are high picks are not the norm, especially not from D1 programs. I guess you know more than someone who works in the industry specifically the minors?

Keith Law also noted the Mets draft "normally" but their development clearly is missing something. I guess Keith Law is unaware of this cherrypicking as well. weird.

again, you are expecting David Peterson to be a borderline HOFer like Mark Buehrle or Madison Bumgarner, so clearly you have your own slant right?

Seidler, Jeff Paternostro, Keith Law, Alex Nelson, all must be negative people who don't know about player development. Fangraphs and their 0/75 pitchers being Mets must be anti-Mets I guess.

just throwing out names of MiL writers who are critical of the Mets to dispell my arguments doesn't mean you're answering my fundamental question. What should the expected hit rate be (for any franchise) vs. what it actually is. And can you, in the aggregate, quantify that the Mets are demonstrably worse than an average ML team.

post updates each and every day with both positive and negative notes when warranted. Some of you guys want ONLY positives, go read someone like Ernest Dove who says stats should be ignored... unless they are good of course, then cite them. This idea I only post negative stuff is flat out absurd at best, and a lie at worst.

In comment 14039990 CMicks3110 said:

Quote:

just throwing out names of MiL writers who are critical of the Mets to dispell my arguments doesn't mean you're answering my fundamental question. What should the expected hit rate be (for any franchise) vs. what it actually is. And can you, in the aggregate, quantify that the Mets are demonstrably worse than an average ML team.

Because such a study doesn't exist means the opinions of people who work in the field (and lucky have more of an idea of hit rate than you are I) should be discarded? Your opening statement cited Tiberi's OBP and how if he got stronger he might be something. No mention of his numbers in A+, his age, his slugg%, compared him to Ty Kelly (another poor player but one who has experience at 6 positions), instead of acknowledging this was an incorrect comparison you shifted your argument towards other things, not the FACT Tiberi has been a waste of a second round pick. Andrew Church? I could go on and on, overdrafted players who sucked RIGHT AWAY, nothing to do with being big leaguers.

said you posted only negative stuff. You've been bullish on Alonso for a while. You have called Vientos , Mauricio, and Kelenic studs at one point or another. I don't think you're purely negative. I just think that your thesis that the Mets are demonstrably broken from a scouting/development perspective (i'm inferring this as you didn't outright say it) is lacking in context. That's my criticism. I'm asking you - if that's the assertion you're making -to prove that that is in fact the case. That the Mets over the Sandy tenure has done substantially worse than other franchises.

fact in today's update alone I have 1 single negative note (Mauricio). So it's a really silly claim, baseless.

In comment 14039993 CMicks3110 said:

Quote:

said you posted only negative stuff. You've been bullish on Alonso for a while. You have called Vientos , Mauricio, and Kelenic studs at one point or another. I don't think you're purely negative. I just think that your thesis that the Mets are demonstrably broken from a scouting/development perspective (i'm inferring this as you didn't outright say it) is lacking in context. That's my criticism. I'm asking you - if that's the assertion you're making -to prove that that is in fact the case. That the Mets over the Sandy tenure has done substantially worse than other franchises.

Adam Fisher is a former Mets employee, HE acknowledged they employee less people in the scouting analytics department than any team in baseball. He's a candidate to be the next GM. Do you think he's being dishonest? or do you think there is a legitimate chance... the Mets actually are doing something at a "lesser" level than other teams? In fact, Shecky (who is a "positive") fan has on numerous occasions acknowledged FO personnel leaving and not being replaced. Is everyone wrong?

if you think that's what i was claiming. I never claimed you're overly negative. See previous post.

Fisher said the Mets have 3 full-time scouting analytics people, the Yankees and Dodgers have "close to 20" and most teams have 5-6.


Nick Francona said this (former Mets employee as well)

""There was a reason Nimmo�s name often came up in trade rumors. Other teams saw what the Mets were oblivious to. That should be cause for some serious introspection. It�s so important to get the evaluations of your own players right."


Nimmo was flat out traded to the Reds with Wheeler for Jay Bruce before the Reds owner stepped in

Wheeler.... AND Nimmo... for Jay Bruce.

In comment 14039993 CMicks3110 said:

Quote:

said you posted only negative stuff. You've been bullish on Alonso for a while. You have called Vientos , Mauricio, and Kelenic studs at one point or another. I don't think you're purely negative. I just think that your thesis that the Mets are demonstrably broken from a scouting/development perspective (i'm inferring this as you didn't outright say it) is lacking in context. That's my criticism. I'm asking you - if that's the assertion you're making -to prove that that is in fact the case. That the Mets over the Sandy tenure has done substantially worse than other franchises.

Well only two winning seasons out of 9 since Alderson took over is a good place to start. That's almost a decade's worth of time. How much longer should these guys get to keep turning out losing seasons? Compared to other teams... well since MLB as a whole is .500, we're doing worse.

Add that to the fact that the minor league system isn't in good shape (especially compared to teams like the Braves who we're going to be competing with for the next decade) due to years of bad drafting and development, and we need to clean house IMO.

I mean, don't the results speak for themself? If the team was doing good drafting/scouting/development, then why such a lack of success at the MLB level over such a very long period of time?

Don't Met fans deserve better? You can go to any of the 30 teams and find a few promising players. The bottom line is the results aren't there.

AGAIN!

I'm sure you can point to anecdotal organizational deficiencies, but who knows the truth? I've heard many teams outsource their analytics, how many do and how do the Mets compare? Do you know for sure?

But back to my initial request - Can you answer the fundamental question about performance relative to other teams in the aggregate over a number of years? And can you say the Mets are demonstrably worse?

Here's what i'm getting at - I really think that there is an element of luck to this all.

Everyone is singing the Yankees praises these days but Aaron Judge was a late round 1st round pick, they got lucky that he has turned into babe ruth; and they are extremely lucky that they had several major relief pieces during a down year when the relief mmarket was at its highest (netting them Gleyber Torres, Frazier, others)

In comment 14040003 CMicks3110 said:

Quote:

AGAIN! I'm sure you can point to anecdotal organizational deficiencies, but who knows the truth? I've heard many teams outsource their analytics, how many do and how do the Mets compare? [b'Do you know for sure? [/b] But back to my initial request - Can you answer the fundamental question about performance relative to other teams in the aggregate over a number of years? And can you say the Mets are demonstrably worse? Here's what i'm getting at - I really think that there is an element of luck to this all. Everyone is singing the Yankees praises these days but Aaron Judge was a late round 1st round pick, they got lucky that he has turned into babe ruth; and they are extremely lucky that they had several major relief pieces during a down year when the relief mmarket was at its highest (netting them Gleyber Torres, Frazier, others)

Adam Fisher.. a former member of the Mets FO under Sandy Alderson, Omar Minaya and John Ricco, who works for SNY is not a good enough source? C'mon. That's ridiculous I'm sorry. Can you really say with a straight face that someone with THIS resume doesn't know the Mets ins and outs at this point?

"The 39-year-old Fisher, who had been with the Mets since Omar Minaya's first stint in the front office, worked alongside Alderson and had previously been manager of baseball operations before he was promoted to director in 2013.

Fisher had worked alongside Mets assistant GM John Ricco for more than 12 years, the New York Times' James Wagner wrote last year. He graduated from Harvard in 2001."

Jeff Paternostro has said the same openly.

it's public record Wheeler/Nimmo were dealt for Bruce until it fell apart (on the Reds end).

The Yankees got lucky? That's a biased assumption. Judge had issues and the Yankees did a great job developing him as they did with Didi and Hicks once they acquired them. They still developed Andujar, Severino, Betances, and Gary Sanchez while maintaining a top 10 farm system. The Yankees don't deserve credit for acquiring Andrew Miller and Chapman and then flipping them for substantially more? I am not a Yankees fan but they are incredible at evaluating and developing talent.

all of this with what seemed like interesting facts (quoted below). Regardless of opinion on any specific gripes, I don't know how it's not obvious that all the issues start with ownership meddling too much and not investing enough resources. Everything else is really window dressing.

RE: Draft Spending - they are cheap

Quote:

According to additional data obtained by The Athletic, the Mets spent the second-lowest of any club in the draft from 2007 to �11, when bonuses remained unrestricted (they still landed deGrom, Matt Harvey and Matz, among others, during that period). From 2012 to �15, when new rules allowed teams to exceed their allotted bonus pools by five percent without losing a pick, the Mets ranked 26th in spending

RE: analytics dept - they are cheap

Quote:

The team�s analytics department, consisting of three full-timers and six interns, is �as big as most,� according to one club official, but not among the biggest in the game.

RE: Draft performance - they are average! Which actually seems like an overachievment given the first 2 points.

Quote:

The team�s recent drafts have produced numerous major leaguers but in most cases not major impact � the combined Wins Above Replacement of the Mets� draftees from Alderson�s first season in 2011 through 2015 ranks 17th in the majors, according to data from Baseball-Reference.com

Rosenthal on the state of the mets ($) - ( New Window )

In comment 14040007 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

it's public record Wheeler/Nimmo were dealt for Bruce until it fell apart (on the Reds end).

and then Flores and Wheeler for Carlos Gomez before that fell apart on the Mets end (right?) Mets said Gomez was injured, no?

Both would have been awful trades the former worse, but the latter still bad.

and the Mets came out of it smelling like a rose (for 2015 at least).

In comment 14040041 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 14040007 DanMetroMan said: Quote: it's public record Wheeler/Nimmo were dealt for Bruce until it fell apart (on the Reds end). and then Flores and Wheeler for Carlos Gomez before that fell apart on the Mets end (right?) Mets said Gomez was injured, no? Both would have been awful trades the former worse, but the latter still bad. and the Mets came out of it smelling like a rose (for 2015 at least).

Yes and no. Either of those other trades would have kept Fulmer and presumably saved them $150m on Cespedes (counting both new contracts). Though probably no WS run either.

At this point though I'd probably say it's an overall win because Wheeler looks like he may be better than Fulmer going forward, Nimmo is a good player, and the insurance money will hopefully come back on Cespedes. Fulmer is still 25 with several more years of control though.

not beyond, re-signing Cespedes was obviously a later decision.

but Flores turned out to be needed in the playoffs once Tejada was assaulted by Utley.

And Cespedes down the stretch in 2015 was maybe the best player for a 6 weeks stretch ever in a Mets uniform.

In comment 14040061 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

not beyond, re-signing Cespedes was obviously a later decision. but Flores turned out to be needed in the playoffs once Tejada was assaulted by Utley. And Cespedes down the stretch in 2015 was maybe the best player for a 6 weeks stretch ever in a Mets uniform.

oh yeah no doubt 2015 ended up being best case scenario. Sidenote I LOLd on Tejada being assaulted by Utley. I don't think enough people give Tejada credit for almost turning an unbelievable DP there.

shecky posted that they actually outsource it to a firm that many teams use (rather than have the people as ftes). Knowing the Mets they probably short change it, but to say they only have 3 people is not accurate since they went a vendor route.

In comment 14040209 bhill410 said:

Quote:

shecky posted that they actually outsource it to a firm that many teams use (rather than have the people as ftes). Knowing the Mets they probably short change it, but to say they only have 3 people is not accurate since they went a vendor route.

The Yankees and Dodgers use outside firms as well, every team in baseball does In ADDITION to their in-house.

an analytics guy with the Mets or was he "just" VP of player development and scouting.

Do you think him leaving impacted the expenditure on analytics at all?

I know he's got a reputation for being a heavy analytics guy. They famously called him "google boy" in LA and not fondly.

"�For us, in a lot of the things we do now, external data is extremely important,� Minnesota Twins director of baseball research Jack Goin told CBS Sports. �As you get Trackman and PITCHf/x and all those things that are not just in the majors but at your minor-league affiliates, it becomes extremely important -- whether it�s player development plans or evaluating players, things like that. So, it�s become incredible for us, really.�

The tools Goin references, Trackman and PITCHf/x, are just two examples of baseball�s increased emphasis on data, albeit two of the most popular ones. Teams use Trackman�s radar-based system to learn more granular details about pitchers, like their spin rate and the depths of their release points. PITCHf/x, meanwhile, is familiar to anyone who has watched or read about a baseball game over the past decade -- it�s the pitch-tracking system that informs those fancy strike-zone displays used on broadcasts and in blog posts. Both are upgrades from than the less-than-halcyon days when STATS Inc. provided limited pitch-related information.

Those who pay attention to such things are likely familiar with other data sources. Numerous teams buy projections (and proprietary metrics) from stats-rich websites like the aforementioned Baseball Prospectus. Some teams rely on a subset of Prospectus� stats team for their pitch classifications. There are services out there like TruMedia -- an analytics platform used by teams and bloggers alike.

Multiple front-office types interviewed for this piece pointed to Baseball Info Solutions and Inside Edge as other examples of popular, necessary data vendors -- both companies employ a legion of video scouts who collectively chart an exhaustive amount of details from every big-league game. Asking the teams to build staffs capable of doing the same work would be impractical. As such, teams are content to pay for the services, especially since they can purchase data for less than it would cost to hire even an underpaid intern."
Link - ( New Window )

"It has been said that when the student is ready, the teacher will appear; naturally, companies have surfaced in recent years, each hoping they can provide teams with the necessary instruments -- and data -- to solve the body�s riddles. Arguably the best known among those companies is Motus, which counts 27 teams on its client list. Motus� biomechanical chops have come in handy in the physical therapy and workplace safety fields, and seem to be catching on in baseball. One reason: the advent of new technology.
"

"There was also a trend in the past of using external companies to house data, like scouting reports or statistics. Most of that has now come in-house. When I was with the Cardinals, we used an outside provider, and when I got to the Astros, they were using an outside provider, but the response time and the customization was lacking. Most important, when you come up with a way of looking at the world and you want the external provider to build the model for you, you don�t want them to share it with the other 29 clubs. It�s difficult to have the confidence that it�s not going to be shared in some way, shape, or form. I think that�s led to most clubs believing that their way of handling data and information is a competitive advantage. It therefore becomes critical to have control over that in-house."
Link - ( New Window )

the sheer volume of data, whether internally or externally developed and analyzed, is only going to gleam the most mundane additional insights. You then have to question what are you really gaining in value through this investment. I love data, am a big believer in it, but there are only a handful of metrics that really are indicative of performance and you don't need a 30 person analytics staff to do the same analysis again and again. Metrics such as OBP, OPS, K/9, WHIP, Exit Velocity, are bread and butter statistics that are widely available and help to evaluate both internal and external talent evaluation. What are the additional statistics that are being derived from a proprietary analytics shop, and then once derived, what is their value and what is actionable? I mean, baseball isn't that overly complicated a sport. I work at a healthcare analytics firm and we study millions of lines of data and do so many sorts of analysis that we end up not acting on because their is nothing meaningful there. The analytics staff at my company is probably 75 people, and the dollar amounts we're working with runs in the billions, so it's worth doing a lot of useless analysis, because when we do find something actionable, it's worth millions of dollars in savings. Baseball is not nearly as complicated as healthcare.

One area where analytics should and has provided great value is in determining player value in terms of $$ and FA decisions. But that value is already pretty much baked into the cake at this point as we've moved post-money ball. So, pretty much everyone agreed that the market last year didn't move because teams had gotten so sophisticated in their valuations that they wouldn't budge. Part of that is that all the teams, separately and without colluding, have reached the point where they all pretty much agreed on what a player is worth. The Mets were praised for getting great deals on players like Frazier, Bruce, Swarzak. But these value signings, weren't really value signings, they were just an accurate read of the market, so what is the analytics really adding other than allowing us to not make a bad decision. Great! We didn't overpay! That's what analytics has done for the Mets.

So, I know I'm playing the contrarian here, but where are we getting the additional edge from, that analytics provided during the moneyball era, but is no longer relevant given the complete transparency of the market.

You need to perhaps go back to traditional scouting to look at physical tools more than raw data. That's where maybe Fred Wilpon has a point. Maybe he doesn't even realize it, but my feeling is that we might need to go back to more traditional scouting because the data is all there and there isn't that many more metrics to evaluate a player.

I remember the Mets a few years ago were trying some economic based incentive program for minor leaguers - bases per out; but did that really help make Josh Satin a better player? Answer - No. He just lacked talent.

So when the data is already there, maybe we need to get more fresh eyes and see if these guys pass the eyeball test. Maybe the Colby Woodmaneese or Blake Tiberi's make sense from a analytics perspective but they just don't have the physical tools and the scouting staff was being overruled. We don't know.
https://www.mlb.com/news/through-internally-developed-hitting-system-mets-aim-to-build-winner/c-72395802 - ( New Window )

A more accurate picture of how the resources are being spent and his perception was that the Mets were not out of line with everyone (or that was my take away). As with any vendor in a corporate setting you can have many different contractual relationships with them so I am not going to pretend to state whether or not the Mets are right or wrong to go that route. My gut reaction is that because it�s the Mets they are likely short changing it but not having more FTEs; I am simply pointing out that shecky stated that it was dishonest to throw out the 3 v 20 stat since Mets have a different approach.

You can cite articles all you want but unless you have someone specifically looking at sow we don�t know

Over mine 10/10 times...