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NFT: Mets Minors 8/15/2018- Snore

DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 7:41 am
AAA Martin
AA Gage
AA2 TBD
A+ Llanes
Columbia TBD
BK TBD
DSL1
DSL2


AAA
Alonso 0-3, BB
Smith 3-4, 2b, K
Guillorme 1-3, BB
Kaczmarski 0-2, 2 BB, K
Crismatt 4.2 innings 4 hits 3 runs 4 walks 5 k's

A+
Lindsay 1-3, 2b, BB, K
Brodey 0-1, K
Paez 1-3, 2b, K (.308, HR, 2 BB over his last 10, second half (.842 OPS, promote)
Sanchez 1-3
Carpio 2-4
Tiberi 1-3, 2 k's (.395 OPS in A+... not a typo)
Kay 6 innings 5 hits 1 run 1 walk 3 k's (Kay has been solid in A+, k rate hasn't been great, walks too high but holding his own)


Kingsport
Granadillo 1-4, BB, K (.333 with 6 walks over his last 10, promote)
Hernandez 2-4, 2b
Vientos 0-3, BB (last 34 ab's, 11 walks)
Beracierta 1-3, 3b, BB, K
Taveras 7 innings 6 hits 4 runs 2 walks 4 k's (Top 50 prospect to me)

GCL
Mauricio 0-5 (3 for his last 40... whether it's wearing down or the scouting reports are out... terrible last 10 games, still only 4 k's over that time, he should be more than fine)
Palmer 2-4, 2b, 2 k's (.300 with 4 walks over his last 10... Flushing native!)
Reyes 1-5, K
SWR 3 innings 3 hits 0 runs 0 walks 4 k's
Parra 2 innings 0 hits 0 runs 3 walks 3 k's


DSL
Gonzalez 6 innings 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 6 k's
Hernandez 0-2
Valerio 1-2, 2 BB, SB
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Alonso  
Hilary : 8/15/2018 7:48 am : link
Alonso is hitting only 250 at triple A. What does that translate to in MLB? Can the Mets plan for him to play first base or do they need to look outside of the organization for a player?
RE: Alonso  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 7:51 am : link
In comment 14039404 Hilary said:
Quote:
Alonso is hitting only 250 at triple A. What does that translate to in MLB? Can the Mets plan for him to play first base or do they need to look outside of the organization for a player?


Alonso is hitting .348 in August with a 1.249 OPS, and .306 with a 1.054 OPS over his last 28 games
Dan  
CMicks3110 : 8/15/2018 8:35 am : link
What do you think of SWR? Reports Ive read have been terrific. Is he looking like someone who could turn into something?
Scouting reports  
Shecky : 8/15/2018 8:36 am : link
The level of scouting reports at the GCL level is like travel ball or HS. There is none. But you play the same players over and over again, so its self scouting. Mauricios current cold streak is exactly what the previous player development always loved to see. So glass half full here.
RE: Dan  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 9:06 am : link
In comment 14039432 CMicks3110 said:
Quote:
What do you think of SWR? Reports Ive read have been terrific. Is he looking like someone who could turn into something?


Velocity is good and they like his intangibles otherwise it'll come down to 4+ years of development, ability to pick up a breaking ball and durability. If you see him in the next 4 years it would be a shocker.
I wish Kay  
Metnut : 8/15/2018 9:15 am : link
missed more bats. I feel a bit more optimistic about our position player prospects than I did going into the season but don't see any real difference maker arms to get excited about in the system.



RE: Scouting reports  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2018 9:18 am : link
In comment 14039434 Shecky said:
Quote:
The level of scouting reports at the GCL level is like travel ball or HS. There is none. But you play the same players over and over again, so its self scouting. Mauricios current cold streak is exactly what the previous player development always loved to see. So glass half full here.


Why are there no HS scouting reports? Just curious. I didn't play baseball in high school, and honestly, no one went to games for 3 years of my high school career. I did track as my spring sport. But in my senior class was a kid (now in his 40's) named Scott Burrell and he threw mid-90's and any time he pitched there were 10 - 15 scouts in attendance, so we started going to high school baseball games.

he was drafted in the 1st round (also a 1st round NBA pick). and he was our football team QB - best athlete I've been around.
.  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2018 9:29 am : link

Ernest Dove
‏ @ernestdove
20s20 seconds ago

Overall Mets fans should be excited about pitching prospect Anthony Kay in this his 1st season playing in system.
The 2016 1st rd pick has shown a solid assortment of pitches. The FB velocity has looked good. Changeup solid.

21 starts
115 inn
116 Ks

0 HRs in 45.2 inn in High A

Just to add he likely isnt throwing a slider  
bhill410 : 8/15/2018 10:23 am : link
Or curve with any degree of regularity since he is coming off tj which may account for lack of Ks. I am guessing they start him next year at AA which is generally when the real coaching begins. Whether he improves next year will be critical harbringer of what they have in Kay.

I am assuming they have to start both Dunn and Kilome in AAA next year right? If so when is last time the Mets had a high upside starter in AAA? Matz?
Kay  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 10:37 am : link
isn't "that" close if he remains a SP unless his CB needs improves significantly (as does his command). Both very well may a year more past TJ but both need to improve significantly.
RE: Just to add he likely isnt throwing a slider  
Metnut : 8/15/2018 10:44 am : link
In comment 14039533 bhill410 said:
Quote:
Or curve with any degree of regularity since he is coming off tj which may account for lack of Ks. I am guessing they start him next year at AA which is generally when the real coaching begins. Whether he improves next year will be critical harbringer of what they have in Kay.

I am assuming they have to start both Dunn and Kilome in AAA next year right? If so when is last time the Mets had a high upside starter in AAA? Matz?


Did Fulmer pitch much in AAA? I think he might've topped out in AA yet?

Good points on Kay. The lack of Ks doesn't mean he's not going to make it or be good, it just means he needs to get better. Let's hope he has a big offseason and shows real development next year.
Is averaging more than a strikeout per inning  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2018 10:49 am : link
a lack of K's?

Serious question. Not sure what's typical or considered success (especially one year removed from TJS)
He's averaging  
Metnut : 8/15/2018 11:00 am : link
7.5 K/9 in high A-ball. I'd like to see that over 10 (at least over 9) at such a low level for a kid who already is 23. 4.3 BB/9 is way to high for that level also.

As he moves up the ranks and faces better hitters, he's going to need improve his stuff as the same stuff will do worse against better competition.

Given the TJ, there's definitely reason to hope that he can improve coming back next year, but it's hard to me to be excited that he'll be a top of rotation arm until I see that improved performance. He's more of a promising "wait and see" guy rather than a "stud" I'm super excited about.



He's made  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2018 11:02 am : link
8 starts in A+. I'd hold off on the "lack of K's" proclamation for Kay with that small sample.

when he was over 10 in A and is at 7.5 in A+.
RE: He's made  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 11:04 am : link
In comment 14039585 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
8 starts in A+. I'd hold off on the "lack of K's" proclamation for Kay with that small sample.

when he was over 10 in A and is at 7.5 in A+.


PJ,
SAL is an extreme strikeout league. Same was said about Peterson and here we are (so far). I wouldn't put too much credence in the SAL k-rates
For  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 11:08 am : link
context 17 pitchers in the SAL have K/9 over 9.00 vs. 8 in the FSL
Man  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 11:10 am : link
the Braves are beyond loaded. The future of the NL East. Ian Anderson at 20 years old leads the FSL in FIP and 2nd in K/9
I'm not putting context into anything  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2018 11:10 am : link
I'm just saying I wouldn't worry about the lack of K's at this time.
RE: I'm not putting context into anything  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 11:12 am : link
In comment 14039601 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
I'm just saying I wouldn't worry about the lack of K's at this time.


Not but in conjunction with 2 members of the BA staff mentioning his breaking ball is below average right now it's relevant.
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 11:13 am : link
I think Luis Carpio could be a post-hype sleeper in 2019. Showing new found pop, respectable K/BB. Lost 1 full season of development but still only 22 next season #Mets
Kilome is the only pitcher in the mid/upper levels with exciting stuff  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2018 11:15 am : link
if the control "clicks" for him, his pure stuff sounds like a top of the rotation guy - mid/upper 90's, great CB, etc. His numbers so far in bing are going the right direction and if that trend continues I think he probably moves up to being the top pitching prospect in the system. Unbelievable get for Cabrera even if he busts.

Dunn/Peterson/Kay all seem to profile more like #3 starters at best. That's not a terrible thing, good Jon Niese had value, his stuff was just clearly never on the level of Thor/JDG/Wheeler/Harvey.

We'll see how Szapucki/Humphreys come back from TJS next year and how SWR does. But their timelines are obviously all pretty far behind the first 4.
RE: He's averaging  
Jay on the Island : 8/15/2018 11:18 am : link
In comment 14039577 Metnut said:
Quote:
7.5 K/9 in high A-ball. I'd like to see that over 10 (at least over 9) at such a low level for a kid who already is 23. 4.3 BB/9 is way to high for that level also.

As he moves up the ranks and faces better hitters, he's going to need improve his stuff as the same stuff will do worse against better competition.

Given the TJ, there's definitely reason to hope that he can improve coming back next year, but it's hard to me to be excited that he'll be a top of rotation arm until I see that improved performance. He's more of a promising "wait and see" guy rather than a "stud" I'm super excited about.



This, plus it usually takes pitchers a full year back before they find their control again.
Szapucki  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 11:21 am : link
and Humphreys will be limited by innings (even in the best case) so realistically if either/both are the goods you are looking at 2020 best case (in terms of being in the rotation, I think Humphreys, who I like is getting what I call a Szapucki bounce, being lumped in, one is not like the other but alas you figure 2020 if things go well, 2021 and beyond if they don't. SWR is light years away. If he ever throws a pitch with DeGrom as his teammate color be surprised, same with Santos who I find very intriguing.
I  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 11:21 am : link
find it pretty weak the Mets are citing the weather as to why Peterson's stuff is down... is he the only one pitching in the FSL? lol
RE: I  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2018 11:22 am : link
In comment 14039621 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
find it pretty weak the Mets are citing the weather as to why Peterson's stuff is down... is he the only one pitching in the FSL? lol


you'd think for an excuse making organization they'd be better at it.
RE: Man  
Jay on the Island : 8/15/2018 11:22 am : link
In comment 14039600 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the Braves are beyond loaded. The future of the NL East. Ian Anderson at 20 years old leads the FSL in FIP and 2nd in K/9

He just made his AA debut last night. The Braves AAA rotation features 5 top 100 prospects, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, Kolby Allard, and Kyle Wilson. That doesn't include top prospect Mike Soroka who is on the 60 day DL.
The Mets should be more aggressive with Vientos  
Jay on the Island : 8/15/2018 11:27 am : link
I would like to see this kid in Low A. He is very young but he is clearly ready for better pitching. The Braves were very aggressive with Acuna, Albies, and now Pache and Riley and it has worked out great so far. Vientos will be a top 10 3B prospect, possibly top 5, in a year IMO.
The most discouraging thing  
Metnut : 8/15/2018 11:28 am : link
about this year isn't just the poor record, it's that the Braves and (to a lesser extent) the Phillies, have seemingly passed the Mets by and look better set up long term than the Mets do.

We really need to nail the GM hire this offseason and start loading up our system to compete with this teams.

Part of my optimism over Philly is that I believe their ownership really means it when they indicate that they want to spend big this offseason. The Mets could theoretically do the same, but I think none of us here expect the Mets to win a bidding war with anyone over Machado or Harper.

I'm  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 11:28 am : link
very intrigued by what the Columbia team might look like next season. Presumably Szapucki will open there, then most of the Kelenic, Mauricio, Cortes, Santana, Newton, Vientos group. Cortes hopefully lands in St. Lucie, and Mauricio's struggles may have them open in Kingsport or BK (in addition to the fact I doubt they want to move Newton to the OF so quickly), Adolph should skip Columbia, some of the BK OF's are mildly interesting. Still, very, very little pitching. This must be addressed.
RE: The Mets should be more aggressive with Vientos  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2018 12:12 pm : link
In comment 14039629 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
I would like to see this kid in Low A. He is very young but he is clearly ready for better pitching. The Braves were very aggressive with Acuna, Albies, and now Pache and Riley and it has worked out great so far. Vientos will be a top 10 3B prospect, possibly top 5, in a year IMO.


I agree. Set him up for success next year by getting his feet wet on adjustments to the new league now. Also allows him to enter riding high, instead of from the standing start of the offseason. Even if he struggles you'd think it would help him going into next year. This is the exact case I'd make for calling up Alonso too.
RE: RE: The Mets should be more aggressive with Vientos  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 12:14 pm : link
In comment 14039707 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14039629 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


I would like to see this kid in Low A. He is very young but he is clearly ready for better pitching. The Braves were very aggressive with Acuna, Albies, and now Pache and Riley and it has worked out great so far. Vientos will be a top 10 3B prospect, possibly top 5, in a year IMO.



I agree. Set him up for success next year by getting his feet wet on adjustments to the new league now. Also allows him to enter riding high, instead of from the standing start of the offseason. Even if he struggles you'd think it would help him going into next year. This is the exact case I'd make for calling up Alonso too.


It's service time, don't let anyone fool you with the glove BS. Same as Vlad Jr.
Is their a service time  
Metnut : 8/15/2018 12:17 pm : link
benefit to calling up Alonso in September after rosters expand rather than now?
RE: I'm  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2018 12:19 pm : link
In comment 14039634 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
very intrigued by what the Columbia team might look like next season. Presumably Szapucki will open there, then most of the Kelenic, Mauricio, Cortes, Santana, Newton, Vientos group. Cortes hopefully lands in St. Lucie, and Mauricio's struggles may have them open in Kingsport or BK (in addition to the fact I doubt they want to move Newton to the OF so quickly), Adolph should skip Columbia, some of the BK OF's are mildly interesting. Still, very, very little pitching. This must be addressed.


This is a totally wild ass projection, but I hope next year's top 10 pick is the highest upside SP possible, which would likely be a HS'er. I like Kelenic, but truthfully I would have preferred it this year if there was a player worthy of the pick. The quantity of SP at AA or above next year should be better than it has been since Harvey/Wheeler/JDG were prospects (obviously the quality isn't the same). Upper level depth is ok. Not great but ok. Need to keep adding true high upside arms so hopefully 1 or 2 of them are ready to step in 4-5 years down the road after JDG/Thor. Need to stack numbers because even in a best case scenario half will bust.
RE: RE: RE: The Mets should be more aggressive with Vientos  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2018 12:22 pm : link
In comment 14039709 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14039707 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 14039629 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


I would like to see this kid in Low A. He is very young but he is clearly ready for better pitching. The Braves were very aggressive with Acuna, Albies, and now Pache and Riley and it has worked out great so far. Vientos will be a top 10 3B prospect, possibly top 5, in a year IMO.



I agree. Set him up for success next year by getting his feet wet on adjustments to the new league now. Also allows him to enter riding high, instead of from the standing start of the offseason. Even if he struggles you'd think it would help him going into next year. This is the exact case I'd make for calling up Alonso too.



It's service time, don't let anyone fool you with the glove BS. Same as Vlad Jr.


It probably is, but I think that's insane for a guy who is already 23. If they are rebuilding, fine wait, who knows when you will compete next.

If they are trying to compete next year and Alonso can be part of the solution, i'd say that's a little bit more important than whether he hits FA in 2025 or 2026 (or whatever the years are).
RE: Is their a service time  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 12:31 pm : link
In comment 14039711 Metnut said:
Quote:
benefit to calling up Alonso in September after rosters expand rather than now?


Nope. Service time counts just the same in September.
Just moved to North Augusta  
Defenderdawg : 8/15/2018 12:34 pm : link
Within walking distance of the new Augusta GreenJackets ballpark, hopefully the Columbia roster will as be stacked next year is it looks to be right now.
RE: I'm  
Named Later : 8/15/2018 12:41 pm : link
In comment 14039634 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
very intrigued by what the Columbia team might look like next season. Presumably Szapucki will open there, then most of the Kelenic, Mauricio, Cortes, Santana, Newton, Vientos group.


I'm with you on that one Dan. I just hope they play in Charleston early next season. The schedule-maker sometimes has a different idea !!
RE: RE: I'm  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14039744 Named Later said:
Quote:
In comment 14039634 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


very intrigued by what the Columbia team might look like next season. Presumably Szapucki will open there, then most of the Kelenic, Mauricio, Cortes, Santana, Newton, Vientos group.



I'm with you on that one Dan. I just hope they play in Charleston early next season. The schedule-maker sometimes has a different idea !!


Current roster is truly horrid but next years team should be a lot of fun. Presumably Cortes is in St. Lucie and as I said tough decision to be made on Mauricio/Newton.
t  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 12:49 pm : link
Kiley McDaniel
12:27 He's legit, by almost any definition of the word. He is limited by his physicality, but Gimenez may be a 60 bat and 55-60 glove, so that's still a 2-3 win player if there's little power.
That's Andres Gimenez, SS with the Mets
..  
Named Later : 8/15/2018 12:53 pm : link
You gotta catch the Low A rosters before their All-Star break. Anybody who's any good gets promoted mid-year.
RE: ..  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 12:57 pm : link
In comment 14039755 Named Later said:
Quote:
You gotta catch the Low A rosters before their All-Star break. Anybody who's any good gets promoted mid-year.


Worse in the Mets case as they NEVER back fill Columbia from BK because they care about winning games in BK so badly so they promote and then sign Indy ball guys to replace them. Really a guy like Cortes should be in Columbia (Vilera etc)
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 1:37 pm : link
Felix Valerio 2 for 4, double, 2 runs
Adrian Hernandez 2 for 4, RBI both finishing the year strong. Would be nice to see Hernandez bypass GCL next year and land in Kingsport #Mets
RE: t  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2018 2:09 pm : link
In comment 14039752 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Kiley McDaniel
12:27 He's legit, by almost any definition of the word. He is limited by his physicality, but Gimenez may be a 60 bat and 55-60 glove, so that's still a 2-3 win player if there's little power.
That's Andres Gimenez, SS with the Mets


yeah i'm pretty hopeful the floor is a more athletic and all around better version of Ruben Tejada (without the bad attitude). Tejada produced 7 fwar in his 4 years as a starter, with relatively consistent numbers across the board. Even only a slightly better version of that is not a bad floor. And since he's 19 who knows, maybe there's even more upside.

IMO one of the most impressive things about his season this year beyond the stats is that he's been the best player on the team at each stop this year. Not sure who would even be the 2nd best player he played with. Toffey? Joey Terdoslavich? Matt Paez in St Lucie? Just as a comparison Rosario played a lot of games with Dom Smith and some other big ML producers like Phil Evans hitting behind him. having good players around always helps so Gimenez' season this year is that much more impressive for not really having that and still showing the ability to hit, draw walks, and not K a ton.
What  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 2:26 pm : link
a disaster this guy has been
Link - ( New Window )
Tiberi has nearly a .350 obp  
CMicks3110 : 8/15/2018 2:30 pm : link
that's pretty reasonable. He probably just needs to add some strength in the off-season. He could turn into a Ty Kelly type down the line, which I know you love dan
HE  
CMicks3110 : 8/15/2018 2:31 pm : link
Just needs to add some strength.
RE: HE  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 2:34 pm : link
In comment 14039889 CMicks3110 said:
Quote:
Just needs to add some strength.


He's 24 in February with a .184 OBP in St. Lucie. He's been ab absolute disaster c'mon. He had a .345 OBP with zero power as a 23 year old in the SAL. He sucks.
RE: Tiberi has nearly a .350 obp  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 2:35 pm : link
In comment 14039888 CMicks3110 said:
Quote:
that's pretty reasonable. He probably just needs to add some strength in the off-season. He could turn into a Ty Kelly type down the line, which I know you love dan


Again, you are looking at his OBP as an overage guy in the SAL (with a .356 slug) that's not playable.. his season = truly awful. He was 1.5 years OLDER than the average player in the SAL while putting up those numbers
Tiberi  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 2:39 pm : link
1.5 years older than the league was 4th on his own team (an awful Columbia roster) in wRC+, 4th in wOBA and on his current team he's.... 17th in wRC+ oh and 18th in OBP. He needs more than strength lol
Oh  
DanMetroMan : 8/15/2018 2:45 pm : link
yeah and Ty Kelly played 2b, 3b, CF, RF, LF, SS in the minors... Blake Tiberi...has played 3B and 2b.
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