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NFT: Mets Minors 8/16/2018- Poor Harol now 1-13

DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 7:39 am
AAA Copeland
AA Jannis (I'll continue stumping for a Sept. callup for Jannis)
A+ Taylor
A TBD
BK Walker
Kingsport Acosta
GCL TBD
DSL1
DSL2

AAA
Alonso 1-4, HR, K (.333 5 homers, 7 walks over his last 10 games)
Guillorme 0-4
Dom 0-4, BB (I don't think you dump him just to do so but his season... truly horrid. Ideally you'd swap him for someone else's disappointing prospect. I'd still prefer parking his butt in Syracuse vs. selling crazy low ie a mediocre veteran)
Hanhold 2 innings 1 hit 0 runs 0 walks 1 k
Bautista 1.2 innings 3 hits 2 runs 2 walks 3 k's (Hopefully a guy who bounces back next season with some time in Syracuse etc)

AA1

Gimenez 2-2, BB, SB (.389 over his last 10, there may be some publications that go with Alonso.. but at this point Gimenez will open the 2019 season as the Mets #1 prospect and likely in the 40-50 range prospects in baseball)
Toffey 1-3 (.873 OPS as a Met... still only 1 homer over 22 games, something to monitor going forward)
Nido 0-3, K (.161 over his last 10 games, just when you want to believe Nido has turned a corner.... August 9 games... .393 OPS)
Mazeika 0-2, BB
Torres 1.1 perfect 3 k's

AA2
Gimenez 0-3, 1
Toffey 0-3, K
Nido 0-2, 2 k's
Mazeika 0-2
Harol 6 innings 7 hits 3 runs 0 walks 3 k's, (Harol is now 1-13 on the season lol)


A+
Wright 0-3, BB
Paez 1-3, BB (.324 over his last 10)
Lindsay 2-4, HR, 2 k's (strong candidate to repeat A+. 2019 is likely the end of the road for Lindsay as interesting if he doesn't somehow put it together)
Sanchez 0-3, BB
Carpio 0-4, K

Columbia (hideous lineup)
Moreno 3-5, 2 k's
Miranda 1-4, 2 k's
Winaker 0-4, 2 k's
Manea 2-4, HR


BK
Adolph 1-3, BB, 2 SB (Should skip Columbia, potential 4th OF)
Chambers 0-3, BB
Senger 1-4, 2b, 2 k's
Dirocie 1-4, K
Sharp 0-0, 4 BB, 2 SB
Butto 6 innings 3 hits 0 runs 1 walks 5 k's


DSL
Hernandez 2-4 (.368 2 homers over his last 10, hopefully they deem him capable of skipping GCL next season and opening in Kingsport as an 18 year old)
Valerio 2-4, 1 2b
Lindsay  
Shecky : 8/16/2018 7:51 am : link
See if he hits a little hot streak here, people still believe in him. Saying he just needed an adjustment. Personally not a believer, but if his K rate somehow begins to dip, maybe it clicked?
Way  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 7:54 am : link
too early to judge but including rehab his k rate hasn't dropped. 31 ab's 12 k's
RE: Way  
Shecky : 8/16/2018 8:04 am : link
In comment 14040339 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
too early to judge but including rehab his k rate hasn't dropped. 31 ab's 12 k's

Lol, exactly...
Why do you think I mentioned his Ks in his first GCL game lol
RE: RE: Way  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 9:07 am : link
In comment 14040342 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 14040339 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


too early to judge but including rehab his k rate hasn't dropped. 31 ab's 12 k's


Lol, exactly...
Why do you think I mentioned his Ks in his first GCL game lol


It's funny (and not directed at anyone on BBI) but people get oddly defensive when you point out a possibly negative stat regarding Lindsay for some reason.
Lindsay  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 9:08 am : link
(who I've mostly given up on) still has a shot to be a late bloomer. It's just a very tough profile when you strike out as he does without much pop.
Not a Lindsay fan, always seemed too boom or bust  
Eric on Li : 8/16/2018 9:32 am : link
his profile is kind of like a much worse version of Corey Ray, who I didn't love all that much even with this year's breakout.

Separately not sure how many of you follow the NHL, but their version of Keith Law (Corey Pronman) does a great job and he's doing his annual organizational reviews and he has an interesting way of classifying/ranking. Both sports are actually kind of similar since they draft players very young, often from international leagues where info is tough to come by, and there's typically 3-5 years of development time before they are ready, so I actually think his way of ranking prospects translates pretty well and works better than just stacking #1-30.

Quote:
Special prospect: Projects to be one of the very best at their position in the league
Elite prospect: Projects to be top 10 percent of the league at their position.
High-end prospect: Projects as a legit top-line forward who can play on your PP1/top pairing defenseman.
Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender.
Legit NHL prospect: Projects to play, probably not in a top role, but is close enough that he could realistically get there.
Have a chance: Probably not an impact guy but could play in the league and has the toolkit to have an outside chance to be a real player. Have a chance refers to probability to be a good player, not his probability to play NHL games.
Depth: Player who doesnt have the skillset to play high in your lineup but could fill out your roster and/or be an injury call-up option.


translating this to a similar MLB oriented system I'd say Gimenez/Alsonso/Vientos/Kelenic all would seemingly fit the "high end/very good" designations (which seem a little redundant in baseball terms). Mauricio is so far away and since his position is TBD he's hard to peg, but maybe that's 1 extra category the MLB version of this system would need - high upside/highly volatile.

I think this type of system also helps evaluate trade returns better. For example Kilome is definitely at minimum a legit prospect. Wahl and Toffey are more in the "have a chance" category, or even "depth" (like all the guys they got at last year's deadline).
Wahl  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 9:36 am : link
may yet be good but you can see why throwing hard isn't everything. Man is his FB straight. Parnell made it work for a few years so it can be done.
Toffey  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 9:39 am : link
has to show more pop post shoulder surgery or he's a very tough profile to project as a regular. People overrated minor league OBP a bit when there aren't secondary (power, speed etc) tools to back it up.
the doubles have been encouraging  
Eric on Li : 8/16/2018 9:45 am : link
they aren't homers, but XBH do qualify as "pop". More of an unknown to me is his D, haven't seen any detailed reports on that.
RE: the doubles have been encouraging  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 9:52 am : link
In comment 14040431 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
they aren't homers, but XBH do qualify as "pop". More of an unknown to me is his D, haven't seen any detailed reports on that.


How many starting 3b would you like on the Mets with 6 homers over 70 games (5 of which coming in one of the best hitters environments in the world). This idea "HR's are overrated" is fan based. Even a guy like David Freese hits double digit homers.
Toffey  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 9:53 am : link
is a below average pure athlete with a good arm.
Just  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 9:56 am : link
for Cal league context on his own team his ISO was 8th, his .159 would rank 26th in the EL if he had enough ab's. Again, we are looking for him to be a starting MLB 3b. If it's just an "extra" guy who can occasionally fill-in, that's fine.
Ty  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 9:58 am : link
Wigginton for comparisons sake at AA .205 ISO
Freese  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 10:00 am : link
career minor league ISO .225
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 10:05 am : link
Carpio and Sanchez might be interesting Rule 5 decisions. Neither one is MLB ready but they play positions they can be hidden thanks to their gloves #Mets
RE: RE: the doubles have been encouraging  
Mike in NY : 8/16/2018 10:06 am : link
In comment 14040438 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14040431 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


they aren't homers, but XBH do qualify as "pop". More of an unknown to me is his D, haven't seen any detailed reports on that.



How many starting 3b would you like on the Mets with 6 homers over 70 games (5 of which coming in one of the best hitters environments in the world). This idea "HR's are overrated" is fan based. Even a guy like David Freese hits double digit homers.


Adding to that, absent power and speed, you realistically need 3 runners reaching base (either hit or walk) to score at least a run. Assuming everyone on your team gets on base at a .350 clip, roughly 4.3% of the time you will get 3 base runners on in a row. That being said, you can have two outs in between although a DP or only 3 walks will decrease chances and errors will increase them. Therefore, you are looking at roughly 8% chance in any given inning that you will have 3 runners reach base. Considering 1/9 is 11.1%, that is not good odds.
The  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 10:10 am : link
Mets reportedly liked this kid, looks like he'll be a star for the Twins
Link - ( New Window )
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 10:13 am : link
Guys... guys.... guys.... Jenrry Mejia 1 perfect 1 K this morning... #2019Closer #Mets
Jeff P  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 10:24 am : link
on Kelenic

"MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2021 High 60 50; Everyday center fielder No
Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 50 Can get a little handsy during his load and lose bat control, popped up some easy cheez. Tough to ding him too much at the end of a long amateur/pro season. Swing can get long and leveraged. Enough bat speed to cover above-average velocity, can exploit aggression early in counts. May end up pop over hit.
Power 55 Ball jumps, backspin and loft, plus raw, should get to most of it.
Baserunning/Speed 55 11.4 on a triple, good second gear, looks like a present plus runner, would expect him to give some of that back in his 20s, but the frame looks close to a finished product.
Glove 55 Can really go get it, strong instincts, runs to the spot, will adjust routes on the fly, reads ball well, goes gap-to-gap with ease, got a 25% bucket play in RCF on a glide. Doesnt have that explosive closing kick, but everything else looks like a sure shot CF.
Arm 60 Plus arm strength, good carry, accurate. Didnt get to see him really air it out, and have heard plus-plus thrown on him here.
Overall
Broad base of skills, five-tool center field projection, may lack a carrying tool for stardom, but the makings of an above-average regular here. Would like to see how he adjusts to full-season ball, might answer some lingering questions about the ultimate hit tool. Going to get Brandon Nimmo comps because of the background, organization, and draft position, but better center field tools than Nimmo at the same age. Less raw than youd think given the background, .260, 20 home run type that can play CF everyday."
Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: the doubles have been encouraging  
Eric on Li : 8/16/2018 11:57 am : link
In comment 14040438 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14040431 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


they aren't homers, but XBH do qualify as "pop". More of an unknown to me is his D, haven't seen any detailed reports on that.



How many starting 3b would you like on the Mets with 6 homers over 70 games (5 of which coming in one of the best hitters environments in the world). This idea "HR's are overrated" is fan based. Even a guy like David Freese hits double digit homers.


A few thoughts:

a) he's got the shoulder injury so he deserves some benefit of doubt
b) mets daniel murphy had years of 6 + 9 homers respectively - he was still a good offensive player because he had 40+ 2b/3b.
c) defense is a huge factor in the equation - had Murphy been a good defender at any position (LF, 2b, 3b) he'd have been resigned. As I said, I haven't seen any detailed reports on Toffey's defense and that's a huge variable in what level of offensive production he will need to reach to stick.

good defense + 50 xbh = a starting level 3B. There are only about 14 MLB 3B currently on pace for 50 xbh this year.

I am by no means a massive Will Toffey fan. At the moment the only real exciting feature is his eye at the plate. Alone that's not enough. But if you double his numbers for this season to project for 140 games he's not terribly far off. Can he improve when he's healthy or maintain as he moves up in competition? TBD.

32 doubles
12 homers
81 rbis
.400 OBP

With solid defense, I would sign for those #'s as a starting 3B. Without solid defense it's Flores with more walks.
RE: Just  
Eric on Li : 8/16/2018 12:03 pm : link
In comment 14040441 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
for Cal league context on his own team his ISO was 8th, his .159 would rank 26th in the EL if he had enough ab's. Again, we are looking for him to be a starting MLB 3b. If it's just an "extra" guy who can occasionally fill-in, that's fine.


There are just 16 qualified mlb 3B with higher ISO than that. The intriguing things about Toffey are the walks and the fact that his ISO has been better in AA than it was at the lower level. Is it a flash in the pan? How is his shoulder? I don't know. Next year is a big year for him. But when we traded for him he looked like a total non prospect bc his numbers in the cal league were awful, especially given his age. The jump up at Bing is what's intriguing. It's at least a flash of a pulse.
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/16/2018 12:31 pm : link
Mauricio 1-4, K
Consuerga 1-3
Palmer 1-4
Hammer (debut) 1 inning 1 hit 0 runs 0 walks 1 k
Hardy 2 innings 0 hits 0 runs 3 walks 2 k's (walks have been an issue but so far since signing 14.1 innings 10 hits 11 walks 18 k's 3.14 era) #Mets
.  
pjcas18 : 8/16/2018 4:55 pm : link

Tim Healey
‏Verified account @timbhealey

Jenrry Mejia, banned for life from baseball two and a half years ago, began a rehab assignment today. He tossed four shutout innings for one of the Mets Dominican Summer League teams
.  
pjcas18 : 8/16/2018 4:58 pm : link
Nimmo just got HBP, seems like in the hand
Oh man, I hate that three base hit bullshit  
Shecky : 8/16/2018 5:42 pm : link
No offense Mike, its said all the time so not a shot at you. Im a pitching, defense and small ball guy. And just infuriates me when people buy into the three base hit needed for a run mantra.

There will be a team in the next 2 or three years that figures it out. And they will be the most annoying team to play against in all of MLB. Theyll rarely slump, and be an incredibly fun team to root for. Question is, who builds it right, if anyone?
RE: Oh man, I hate that three base hit bullshit  
Eric on Li : 8/16/2018 6:23 pm : link
In comment 14041022 Shecky said:
Quote:
No offense Mike, its said all the time so not a shot at you. Im a pitching, defense and small ball guy. And just infuriates me when people buy into the three base hit needed for a run mantra.

There will be a team in the next 2 or three years that figures it out. And they will be the most annoying team to play against in all of MLB. Theyll rarely slump, and be an incredibly fun team to root for. Question is, who builds it right, if anyone?


The Kansas City Royals. And I agree about the homer stuff, also with nothing against Mike or anyone else. I get it in theory. I got it in theory when Sandy early on used to say "the team that has more homers wins 90% of the time". I also get why in theory batting average and singles aren't particularly important. In practice I think we've seen the downfall though. The Mets led the NL in homers from 2015-2017 despite never having a consistently good offense. They were #1 in homers and #9 in runs.

On the flip side high BA players take better at bats. They tend to be harder to strike out. They put more pressure on pitchers and defenses. They giveaway less easy outs. BA may not be an important stat in a vacuum but I'd contend it's an important indicator of someone who is a good hitter. Obviously you hope to get good hitters who also have power and do damage, but that's hard to find. In the absence of someone with both skills I'd take the better pure hitter over the low BA/power guys personally. I'd rather have the Met version of Murphy or Olerud up in a big spot over Bruce or Duda any day of the week.
RE: Oh man, I hate that three base hit bullshit  
Mike in NY : 8/16/2018 8:28 pm : link
In comment 14041022 Shecky said:
Quote:
No offense Mike, its said all the time so not a shot at you. Im a pitching, defense and small ball guy. And just infuriates me when people buy into the three base hit needed for a run mantra.

There will be a team in the next 2 or three years that figures it out. And they will be the most annoying team to play against in all of MLB. Theyll rarely slump, and be an incredibly fun team to root for. Question is, who builds it right, if anyone?


I am all for a high ba/OBP player if he is getting doubles or can swipe a lot of bases, but you arent going to win if your team has 8 guys with Rey Ordoezs power.
If you play 3B  
pjcas18 : 8/16/2018 9:35 pm : link
and have no power you have to hit like Wade Boggs to be legit in today's MLB.

And I'd question Boggs outlier 24 HR season.

I would take a 3B who hit .300/.400/.420 with a .800 OPS.

why wouldn't you?

And Boggs was a butcher in the field. granted the green monster helped his SLG with all the doubles the other way off the wall, but the stats remain ok to me.

now realistically, another Wade Boggs (may he rest in peace) is unlikely.

RE: .  
spike : 8/17/2018 9:43 am : link
In comment 14040975 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Nimmo just got HBP, seems like in the hand


he has to protect his hands better
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