NFT: FF 8-16 today’s question

Barkley
Hunt
Gordon

Barkley's going to do a lot of damage out of the backfield so this is especially true in PPR leagues.

that’s vital information.

I don’t like Hunt this year with Ware back, very risky in the first round. I’d probably go with rock solid production from Gordon, then barkley, then hunt.

Why not go WR? I think I like Hopkins better than either of the above at 7 (off it’s a PPR especially).

Bell
Gurley
Johnson
Elliott
Kamara
Barkley

Decision over. You take whos left over.

Gordon
Hunt

I do not like Hunt's value at all this year. A new QB (who looks iffy so far) and Hunt's struggles towards the end of the last year scare me off. Alex Smith is a good complement to Hunt and any versatile RB especially in Reid's offense, that will be a big loss. On my personal rankings, I have Hunt at 14. I'd much rather Barkley, Kamara, Hopkins, or even Fournette (big year for him if he stays healthy) before Hunt.

Would not surprise me at all if McCaffrey outscores Hunt in PPR.

In comment 14040686 GuzzaBlue said:

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Gordon Hunt I do not like Hunt's value at all this year. A new QB (who looks iffy so far) and Hunt's struggles towards the end of the last year scare me off. Alex Smith is a good complement to Hunt and any versatile RB especially in Reid's offense, that will be a big loss. On my personal rankings, I have Hunt at 14. I'd much rather Barkley, Kamara, Hopkins, or even Fournette (big year for him if he stays healthy) before Hunt. Would not surprise me at all if McCaffrey outscores Hunt in PPR.

Hunt didn't struggle toward the end of last year. He averaged almost 30 FF points a game in weeks 14-16, and had 1 carry in week 17 (for a 35 yard TD before resting).

His issue in the middle of the year was mainly lack of usage thanks to Reid, who realized it and turned the playcalling over to Nagy.

Reid has always been a guy who favors one RB being the bell cow, just look at his history in KC and Phi. So I'm not that concerned with Ware returning, he's just JAG. In fact it makes me like Hunt more, because I can secure his backup for next to nothing.

I agree with dep here though, whoevers left of the top 6 picks would be my pick.

Sorry.

as much as I absolutely want Barkley to be a fantasy stud, I cannot see using a first round pick on him until he helps to prove that OUR team can produce a fantasy football worthy RB.

Yes he has all of the talent in the world but we know that is only part of the equation here. Hunt for example plays on a team that you know consistently produces fantasy productive RBs. Hunt also proved it last year.

I think Barkley is the must uncertain pick of the three with the largest upside. I dont like taking a gamble so early in the draft.

Especially in a ppr. His upside goes without saying but I think his ADP is mostly based on the certainty most feel that he will get an insane amount of volume and to a lesser extent with that upside he has.

that has to be factored in. Hunt will not be a bell cow. Barkley will but who knows how it will go. I have high hopes but from a fantasy perspective 7 overall is a huge risk. I don’t really like Melvin Gordon but he’s heir bellcow and will always get the ball. He’s the “safest” even though his upside is limited.

But again, why only a RB here? Why not Hopkins or Jones?

In comment 14040697 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 14040686 GuzzaBlue said: Quote: Gordon Hunt I do not like Hunt's value at all this year. A new QB (who looks iffy so far) and Hunt's struggles towards the end of the last year scare me off. Alex Smith is a good complement to Hunt and any versatile RB especially in Reid's offense, that will be a big loss. On my personal rankings, I have Hunt at 14. I'd much rather Barkley, Kamara, Hopkins, or even Fournette (big year for him if he stays healthy) before Hunt. Would not surprise me at all if McCaffrey outscores Hunt in PPR. Hunt didn't struggle toward the end of last year. He averaged almost 30 FF points a game in weeks 14-16, and had 1 carry in week 17 (for a 35 yard TD before resting). His issue in the middle of the year was mainly lack of usage thanks to Reid, who realized it and turned the playcalling over to Nagy. Reid has always been a guy who favors one RB being the bell cow, just look at his history in KC and Phi. So I'm not that concerned with Ware returning, he's just JAG. In fact it makes me like Hunt more, because I can secure his backup for next to nothing. I agree with dep here though, whoevers left of the top 6 picks would be my pick.

Bingo. Reid himself said he needed to do a better job with Hunt. They alsl are going to use him more in the passing game this year and he already had over 50 catches as a rookie. As much as I love Barkley you have to take Hunt over him. But I still believe Barkley is a first round player.

In comment 14040739 UConn4523 said:

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that has to be factored in. Hunt will not be a bell cow. Barkley will but who knows how it will go. I have high hopes but from a fantasy perspective 7 overall is a huge risk. I don’t really like Melvin Gordon but he’s heir bellcow and will always get the ball. He’s the “safest” even though his upside is limited. But again, why only a RB here? Why not Hopkins or Jones?

probably because in a non-PPR, you want guys who score TDs. Bellcow RBs are far more likely to score double digit TDs than stud WRs.

Also, I'd be taking Fournette and Cook before Gordon as well. Not sure why they aren't in the conversation.

but you have to take him there.

in a keeper league more so, but in any format, Barkley is going top 7 or 8.

In comment 14040736 Giants Fan in Steelers Land said:

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Especially in a ppr. His upside goes without saying but I think his ADP is mostly based on the certainty most feel that he will get an insane amount of volume and to a lesser extent with that upside he has.

Like you said.. "projected". We dont really know do we? Did Shurmer say he was getting 30 touches per game? 23 carries and 7 receptions? OR.. is it just what people believe will happen?

So, are you willing to draft him with your first pick in a money league when you really have no history? Especially on a team that DOES have a track record of not being able to run the ball?

I have NEVER selected a rookie with my first pick in a draft. If you miss on #1, you are not fucked but you are at a huge disadvantage.

In comment 14040763 EricJ said:

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In comment 14040736 Giants Fan in Steelers Land said: Quote: Especially in a ppr. His upside goes without saying but I think his ADP is mostly based on the certainty most feel that he will get an insane amount of volume and to a lesser extent with that upside he has. Like you said.. "projected". We dont really know do we? Did Shurmer say he was getting 30 touches per game? 23 carries and 7 receptions? OR.. is it just what people believe will happen? So, are you willing to draft him with your first pick in a money league when you really have no history? Especially on a team that DOES have a track record of not being able to run the ball? I have NEVER selected a rookie with my first pick in a draft. If you miss on #1, you are not fucked but you are at a huge disadvantage.

I've already drafted him in 2 big money leagues (at 9 and 6 overall) and have seen him go as high as 3 in other leagues. I have no qualms about drafting a RB, rookie or otherwise, who is going to get the lion's share of touches.

in my opinion, fantasy football is a bit like blackjack. You are playing odds. Picking guys who have a consistent weekly production average and not boom or bust every week.

In comment 14040721 EricJ said:

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as much as I absolutely want Barkley to be a fantasy stud, I cannot see using a first round pick on him until he helps to prove that OUR team can produce a fantasy football worthy RB. Yes he has all of the talent in the world but we know that is only part of the equation here. Hunt for example plays on a team that you know consistently produces fantasy productive RBs. Hunt also proved it last year. I think Barkley is the must uncertain pick of the three with the largest upside. I dont like taking a gamble so early in the draft.

What Pat Shurmur did with Dalvin Cook last year before Cook's injury has to be instructive. Very first game, 22 carries and 3 receptions on 5 targets for 137 total yards.

2nd game was a bad game script game as they fell to Pitt 26-9, but he still had 14 touches.

3rd game bounced back with 32 touches for 169 yards and a score.

4th game he tore his ACL early in the 3rd quarter but by that time he already had 14 touches, 74 yards and a score.

The point here is that Cook received heavy volume right out of the gate, was used as a three-down back, and Saquon has all of the talent of Cook and then some, and is even a better blocker.

Barkley is going to get his, and the talent is there. You shouldn't be afraid of drafting him.

If I have the 6th pick and he's there, I'm taking him.

At 7, if he's there, I take him. If the group of 6 RBs are gone, take AB.

In comment 14040755 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 14040739 UConn4523 said: Quote: that has to be factored in. Hunt will not be a bell cow. Barkley will but who knows how it will go. I have high hopes but from a fantasy perspective 7 overall is a huge risk. I don’t really like Melvin Gordon but he’s heir bellcow and will always get the ball. He’s the “safest” even though his upside is limited. But again, why only a RB here? Why not Hopkins or Jones? probably because in a non-PPR, you want guys who score TDs. Bellcow RBs are far more likely to score double digit TDs than stud WRs. Also, I'd be taking Fournette and Cook before Gordon as well. Not sure why they aren't in the conversation.

Didn’t see his post. But either way Hunt isn’t in the conversation in the first round for me in any format.

In comment 14040775 EricJ said:

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in my opinion, fantasy football is a bit like blackjack. You are playing odds. Picking guys who have a consistent weekly production average and not boom or bust every week.

What makes you think that Barkley is going to be boom or bust? He's looking at a 18-20 touch floor per week, with an extensive role in the passing game.

drafted in first round and look at their stats...

i ahve 6th pick and unlesss antknio brown falls i am taking barkley most likely with kamara on the board...

Gordon
Hunt

I have Hunt rated lower than his current ranking. I’m willing to let someone else take him, as I’d rather have Cook, McCaffery, and Fournette over him.

I would rank it Gurley,Elliot,Bell, Johnson,A.Brown,Kamara and OBJ.

is not really a good runner and is is overrated as a first rounder.

Gurley
M Gordon
Adams

First 3 keepers.

For my back to back picks round 4 and 5 I was thinking of going WR WR to fill out my starting 3 WR but since WR is so deep and I find them on waivers anyway..

Would it be a crazy idea to take back to back RBs there? They would be my flex and RB4/backup that I can't start.

I could take Alex Collins AND Derrick Henry to go with Gurley and Gordon..

I could then hit WR in rounds 6 and 7 ( I have two 7s)..

And wait on QB and TE.

"experts" say WR is NOT deep this year and RB and WR are about fairly even from a depth standpoint proportionately (considering most teams have 2 - 4 WR's on the field at one time) vs 1 RB (2 in extreme cases).

Anyone else believe that?

In comment 14040804 Mr. Nickels said:

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Gurley M Gordon Adams First 3 keepers. For my back to back picks round 4 and 5 I was thinking of going WR WR to fill out my starting 3 WR but since WR is so deep and I find them on waivers anyway.. Would it be a crazy idea to take back to back RBs there? They would be my flex and RB4/backup that I can't start. I could take Alex Collins AND Derrick Henry to go with Gurley and Gordon.. I could then hit WR in rounds 6 and 7 ( I have two 7s).. And wait on QB and TE.

I'd probably go 1 of each, but it really depends on who's on the board.

In comment 14040807 pjcas18 said:

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"experts" say WR is NOT deep this year and RB and WR are about fairly even from a depth standpoint proportionately (considering most teams have 2 - 4 WR's on the field at one time) vs 1 RB (2 in extreme cases). Anyone else believe that?

I’m somewhat in that camp.

As thrilled as I was with getting first pick in the BBI League, looking at the likely WR pool at the 24-25 swing had me wondering if it really was thAt an idea to consider Antonio Brown at #1 overall.

I think I’ve talked myself off that ledge, but WR reliability drops off FAST in my view.

**that crazy of an idea**

In comment 14040807 pjcas18 said:

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"experts" say WR is NOT deep this year and RB and WR are about fairly even from a depth standpoint proportionately (considering most teams have 2 - 4 WR's on the field at one time) vs 1 RB (2 in extreme cases). Anyone else believe that?

i always feel you have to have 1 elite rb and 1 elite wr, that is just always my philosophy...

i have 6th pick and i am kost likely going rb-wr...

only caveat is if brown falls to 6...

my guess i end up with barkley-thomas

1-4

In comment 14040807 pjcas18 said:

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"experts" say WR is NOT deep this year and RB and WR are about fairly even from a depth standpoint proportionately (considering most teams have 2 - 4 WR's on the field at one time) vs 1 RB (2 in extreme cases). Anyone else believe that?

RB is very top heavy. There are some guys with upside after the first 2 rounds but not guys I get excited about starting as high picks. It depends where you pick. Overall, I love my teams way better when coming out of the top 3 rounds with 2 top RBs and a WR.

In comment 14040823 robbieballs2003 said:

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In comment 14040807 pjcas18 said: Quote: "experts" say WR is NOT deep this year and RB and WR are about fairly even from a depth standpoint proportionately (considering most teams have 2 - 4 WR's on the field at one time) vs 1 RB (2 in extreme cases). Anyone else believe that? RB is very top heavy. There are some guys with upside after the first 2 rounds but not guys I get excited about starting as high picks. It depends where you pick. Overall, I love my teams way better when coming out of the top 3 rounds with 2 top RBs and a WR.

WR is just as top heavy. There is just a much bigger middle class at WR that you can feel good about.

In comment 14040807 pjcas18 said:

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"experts" say WR is NOT deep this year and RB and WR are about fairly even from a depth standpoint proportionately (considering most teams have 2 - 4 WR's on the field at one time) vs 1 RB (2 in extreme cases). Anyone else believe that?

No. Not at all.

WRs into the 10th round are startable. RBs fall off a cliff and become lottery tickets usually after the 6 or 7th.

Last year outside of like Brown and Hopkins, WR was a mess and so many guys were just bunched together. If I am not getting a top WR then I am almost going RB early and even those top WR better be at the emd of the first or beginning of the second. There are a ton of top RBs who will catch a ton of passes this year.

In comment 14040825 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 14040823 robbieballs2003 said: Quote: In comment 14040807 pjcas18 said: Quote: "experts" say WR is NOT deep this year and RB and WR are about fairly even from a depth standpoint proportionately (considering most teams have 2 - 4 WR's on the field at one time) vs 1 RB (2 in extreme cases). Anyone else believe that? RB is very top heavy. There are some guys with upside after the first 2 rounds but not guys I get excited about starting as high picks. It depends where you pick. Overall, I love my teams way better when coming out of the top 3 rounds with 2 top RBs and a WR. WR is just as top heavy. There is just a much bigger middle class at WR that you can feel good about.

I do agree that the top WRs go quickly (gone by the top of 3) but that middle class is better than the RB middle class imo. So, yeah, I agree with all of it. That is why I like 2 RB and 1 WR from most draft positions.

In comment 14040763 EricJ said:

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In comment 14040736 Giants Fan in Steelers Land said: Quote: Especially in a ppr. His upside goes without saying but I think his ADP is mostly based on the certainty most feel that he will get an insane amount of volume and to a lesser extent with that upside he has. Like you said.. "projected". We dont really know do we? Did Shurmer say he was getting 30 touches per game? 23 carries and 7 receptions? OR.. is it just what people believe will happen? So, are you willing to draft him with your first pick in a money league when you really have no history? Especially on a team that DOES have a track record of not being able to run the ball? I have NEVER selected a rookie with my first pick in a draft. If you miss on #1, you are not fucked but you are at a huge disadvantage.

Fair points but I think his draft spot takes that risk into account. There are just many data points that seem to indicate heavy usage from the start. And the running backs who have proven to get that volume are mostly taken ahead of him. I think you have to have an unrealistically pessimistic outlook to not think his floor is a high end rb2 and his upside is a top 3 rb1. I do think the rookie rb trend is overblown and an overreaction to last year and I'm not jumping for any of the other rookie rbs

in non ppr I would rank Fournet in the discussion seeing its more about TDs.

In comment 14040836 Giants Fan in Steelers Land said:

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I think you have to have an unrealistically pessimistic outlook to not think his floor is a high end rb2 and his upside is a top 3 rb1.

My comments were not about whether I would take him as an RB2. The discussions have been about taking him as an RB1.

In comment 14040836 Giants Fan in Steelers Land said:

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I think you have to have an unrealistically pessimistic outlook

Incorrect. This is not pessimism. This is being REALISTIC. He has not done it yet at this level and the Giants have not been able to run the ball for 7 years which makes it less about him and more about the OL which also is still a question mark. You will draft him with your first pick out of OPTIMISM.

I stand by that high end rb2 (look at some examples from last year like Dion Lewis for high end rb2 numbers). I agree there is certainly optimism and his upside baked into his ADP but volume is the argument I see people making for why he is absolutely a first rounder this year. There is not a good argument for him to not receiving a high volume of rushing and receiving opportunities.

In comment 14040854 EricJ said:

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In comment 14040836 Giants Fan in Steelers Land said: Quote: I think you have to have an unrealistically pessimistic outlook Incorrect. This is not pessimism. This is being REALISTIC. He has not done it yet at this level and the Giants have not been able to run the ball for 7 years which makes it less about him and more about the OL which also is still a question mark. You will draft him with your first pick out of OPTIMISM.

I will draft him because of opportunity and talent, not optimism.

Over Barkley imv. Look at how many carries Gordon had last year and look at how many targets in the passing game. The coaching staff has come out and said they want to get him even more involved in the passing game. Gordon has the safer floor and I think Barkley’s ceiling is negligible vs Gordon’s all things considered.

In comment 14040960 WillVAB said:

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Over Barkley imv. Look at how many carries Gordon had last year and look at how many targets in the passing game. The coaching staff has come out and said they want to get him even more involved in the passing game. Gordon has the safer floor and I think Barkley’s ceiling is negligible vs Gordon’s all things considered.

I agree. Gordon, Hunt, Elliott, Fournett, etc have all been linked to having increased production in the pass game whether it was the coaches coming out and saying that or other reasons. In one of my leagues last year Hunt was the number 4 RB overall and Gordon as the number 5. So, really what this comes down to is who do you like more. Barkley will get his touches but it is all projection. Nobody will fault you for taking Barkley high but that seems more preference than anything else. If you like rooting for Giants then take him. If you want the smart play then I would probably agree that Hunt and Gordon will be above Barkley.