NFT: TS Florence Update

Be careful.

In comment 14073502 section125 said:

Quote:

In comment 14073416 FatMan in Charlotte said: Quote: think the coast will get hammered by a storm surge, the coverage of the hurricane has been all the local news has covered since Monday. "Historic storm". A rush of people getting gas, water and bread in Charlotte. Now, we'll be able to make sandwiches and watch 25 mile per hour winds drop some rain on us. While I wouldn't personally stick around the coast, the overhyping of many storms starts to get under people's skin. Can't sell papers unless the Headline is sensational...and I agree it gets annoying. A couple years back a front came thru the Tampa area(IIRC) and some boaters got killed "because NWS under predicted the severity." People sued and won. Now NWS treats small craft warnings like gales and gales like hurricanes. Problem is houses in NC(and SC) are not built like houses in Florida (after Andrew anyway). What we in FL would say "meh" to, will take out houses in NC like what Sandy did in NJ.

I remember that. The sad part is the NWS is usually spot on with marine forecasts, and yet it never fails, you'll find guys going out because 'you can't trust the weatherman'.

Side note - these guys are getting more and more accurate because of the amount of data they collect and the processing power at their disclosure. Here's an interesting article on the use of marine drones for collection of ocean data (salinity, temperature, etc.).
https://www.wired.com/story/hurricane-florence-underwater-drone-slocum-glider/ - ( New Window )

interestingly enough NWS/NOAA people say the best and most accurate info they get is from ship observations world wide. Almost every ship sailing the oceans makes weather observations every 6 hrs (3 hrs within 300 miles of Trop Storms) and sends to NOAA which then disseminates the info. Data, data data.
NOAA is very accurate 72 hrs out.

discussion of jcn, the guy MJVentrice I've harped on twtr (he is for the first time going to be an on camera commentator, for Florence coverage, for the TWC, fwiw), he is a models geek. The data, data, data that is available is fed to computers, NWS, NOAA, Euro models, and more, and the bias, leverage, and algorithms in their respective software differs, and guys like Ventrice, who know their meteorological science well, also get to know the bias of different models and factor that into their assessments...they can run hot and cold, like stock market analysts. But MJV has been good and pretty spot on with his early calls that Florence would not hover/linger toward northern NC and call that a turn west/south was in the cards. We'll see.

click the link to get the gif motion (there must be a trick to this; I can't convert it to BBI metrics https://twitter.com/i/status/1040104483093667840

along the Atlantic Seaboard, in addition, of course, to the outer bands of the TC itself https://twitter.com/i/status/1040232880977465345

Quote:

Outer rain bands from #hurricaneflorence are now impacting the Carolinas. This is when you need to watch for quick torando spin ups

Ventrice...gif on outer bands moving ashore
https://twitter.com/i/status/1040249113265106945

https://twitter.com/i/status/1040253237616619520
Hope no BBIers staying put along the coast...this flooding from the surge is already 'impressive', as in scary, this early

they can collect and the level of modeling that can be done to create probability models to track these weather patters is absolutely incredible. Sites like [url]http://spaghettimodels.com/[/u] are incredible resources.

I understand the concern that some media outlets are driven by eyeballs, but the guys who oversee and interpret these models are evaluated and motivated by accuracy and precision.

If something has an 70% chance of being catastrophic and a 5% chance of being a total dud, it does not serve the public well to count on that 5%.

by overstating the potential for catastrophe sometimes. It makes people numb, if not completely indifferent to the officials issuing the warnings, who are not playing around or just trying to get views.

I saw it first hand here with Sandy, where people directly in harm's way decided to stay put because they thought it was just a media invention after they didn't see enough damage from Irene.

a balance that needs to happen.

And coverage should reflect that. On the coast, it is absolutely essential to provide warnings and coordinate evacuations. Even low category storm with such a wide area is likely to cause devastating storm surges and flooding.

But inland, we've literally had constant coverage since Monday. I ended up getting gas at 6:45AM on Wednesday morning because Tuesday, lines were massive at gas stations with people filling up and getting fuel for generators. The grocery stores have had pallets of water in the front of the stores because they don't even have time to stock the shelves with them. Yesterday, there was no bread left on the shelves.

At first, Charlotte was warned we could get 16-20 inches of rain and suffer Category 2 force winds. Those projections are down to 2-4" of rain and winds of 35mph.

It is Parent's Weekend at Clemson and they cancelled the open house at the Architecture Dept. because of the warnings issued on Monday. They moved the football game up to Noon. Now, it looks like it will be light rain and mild winds throughout the weekend.

We have the ability to focus on those areas that need the information, but it too often comes off as creating panic, especially in those areas where the liklihood of severe damage is far less.

In comment 14073775 FatMan in Charlotte said:

Quote:

a balance that needs to happen. And coverage should reflect that. On the coast, it is absolutely essential to provide warnings and coordinate evacuations. Even low category storm with such a wide area is likely to cause devastating storm surges and flooding. But inland, we've literally had constant coverage since Monday. I ended up getting gas at 6:45AM on Wednesday morning because Tuesday, lines were massive at gas stations with people filling up and getting fuel for generators. The grocery stores have had pallets of water in the front of the stores because they don't even have time to stock the shelves with them. Yesterday, there was no bread left on the shelves. At first, Charlotte was warned we could get 16-20 inches of rain and suffer Category 2 force winds. Those projections are down to 2-4" of rain and winds of 35mph. It is Parent's Weekend at Clemson and they cancelled the open house at the Architecture Dept. because of the warnings issued on Monday. They moved the football game up to Noon. Now, it looks like it will be light rain and mild winds throughout the weekend. We have the ability to focus on those areas that need the information, but it too often comes off as creating panic, especially in those areas where the liklihood of severe damage is far less.

They don’t have the ability to nail down an exact track days out. Do you suggest they wait until it’s 12 hours away when they’re 100% sure where it’s going? And then say run for your lives?

Yes, the media will blare the headlines, but it's up to us to be discriminating consumers and do our diligence, is it not? Weather can not be tamed (except, God willing, when it comes to climate change, there, my bias). So the news earlier this week was that Florence's track would take her across NC and well up into VA. Folks I know in Lexington, VA, near Lynchburg, were taking it very seriously. Thankfully, threats to that region are now minimized. The storm evolved so the land targets have to evolve.

Sandy was not even that 'powerful' a storm in terms of Saffir-Simpson, but it obviously wrought enormous damage. If folks in the NYC Metro area had given Irene more careful thought when it came to Sandy, they would not have been lulled into complacency. Irene whisked by the NYC Metro region but did enormous damage right up into the Upper (Connecticut River) Valley in New Hampshire, impacting VT as well, cutting off villages for weeks such that vital supplies had to be airlifted in. Road travel was impossible for weeks in some parts. Not everything is cookie cutter.

So, it's easy to assail the press for over- or under-reaction, and indeed, coverage is often unbalanced. Most people, excepting a lot of smart folks on BBI, read and react and don't give it much thought beyond what's blaring in the Street. We're given to chaos inducing news, the real and the fake.

Here is a link to a page that has Live WebCams on the NC/SC beaches.

If anyone has anything better, please link.
WATCH: Webcams offer real-time view of Hurricane Florence - ( New Window )

The Capital Weather Gang of the Washington Post does some very good weather analysis without, in my view, unnecessary hype. They're pretty straightforward. And WaPo has removed article limits/pay wall for Flo-related content. I include the link to the Capital Weather Gang's main page.
Washington Post Capital Weather Gang - ( New Window )

TWC is doing the same, removing pay walls, broadcast on Sirius 125 (if I remember correctly) whether or not you're a subscriber and I think also NPR, not sure of latter.

see if the right side of the table comes out

right hand scale is 7-day rainfall events through Wilmington history, with Florence projected at ~ 37 inches.

This one is for the Fat Man (:

the severity of this storm for the coast.

They are going to get walloped with precipitation and that alone causes problems.

The early reports suggesting flooding in central VA, most of NC and upper SC are fine warnings.

My biggest gripe is when they sensationalize it. This storm has been called "historic" - the largest hurricane to ever hit the Eat Coast (which I believe is now going to be false. The local news said that the rainfall predicted for Charlotte is the most in a 3 day span in the past 104 years, which is definitely going to be false.

Charlotte's school district cancelled school TODAY. There's not a drop of rain on the ground, nor any significant wind. They now lose a day on Spring Break. Luckily our school district was much more pragmatic and waited to see the latest forecast before deciding to have classes.

and sensationalized or are other variables affecting the storm and changing the course/strength from what it was projecting to to do a couple days ago, making those places not hit as hard lucky? I don't know the answer.

I think that if news services spent more time explaining that they are probability models, subject to change, and all the variables that could affect it-- it would fall on deaf ears and many lay people wouldn't understand what to do. In a way to be clear and get the message out, they treat the most likely outcomes effectively as current reality.

they are most certainly sensationalized or you wouldn't hear things like "Storm of the Century" or other monikers meant to catch viewers attention. Last year, they deemed one storm, "Winter Armageddon" and schools proactively closed two days before it hit - and hit is an understatement. We got less than an inch of snow - although the storm did hit the NC mountains pretty hard.

I do know this though. When they say on Monday that Florence is targeting the Carolinas and people in charlotte had better prepare to be without power for several days, it certainly sends people panicking. They aren't going out and pillaging the shelves of water and bread because of a reasonable weather model, they are doing it because they are basically being told there is imminent danger.

The most Charlotte has been out of power on a widespread basis in the last 20 years is 2 days during an ice storm.

The last time there was a significant cleanup and power loss due to a hurricane was Hurricane Hugo in 1989 - a category 5 storm.

A coworker summed up the phenomenon nicely today - "Weather porn". He said it gives people a purpose for worrying.

I'll reiterate that these types of events can be very dangerous for the coast. Inland 3.5 hours it takes a very, very special circumstance.

In comment 14074069 FatMan in Charlotte said:

Quote:

they are most certainly sensationalized or you wouldn't hear things like "Storm of the Century" or other monikers meant to catch viewers attention. Last year, they deemed one storm, "Winter Armageddon" and schools proactively closed two days before it hit - and hit is an understatement. We got less than an inch of snow - although the storm did hit the NC mountains pretty hard. I do know this though. When they say on Monday that Florence is targeting the Carolinas and people in charlotte had better prepare to be without power for several days, it certainly sends people panicking. They aren't going out and pillaging the shelves of water and bread because of a reasonable weather model, they are doing it because they are basically being told there is imminent danger. The most Charlotte has been out of power on a widespread basis in the last 20 years is 2 days during an ice storm. The last time there was a significant cleanup and power loss due to a hurricane was Hurricane Hugo in 1989 - a category 5 storm. A coworker summed up the phenomenon nicely today - "Weather porn". He said it gives people a purpose for worrying. I'll reiterate that these types of events can be very dangerous for the coast. Inland 3.5 hours it takes a very, very special circumstance.

The federal government is telling the news organizations this. The President went on national TV and said:


“They haven't seen anything like what's coming at us in 25, 30 years, maybe ever. It's tremendously big and tremendously wet, tremendous amounts of water. It could very well be very similar to Texas in the sense that it's tremendous amounts of water ... probably more water than we've ever seen in a storm or a hurricane.”

a very experienced meteorologist with NOAA. He told me long ago to go to the source for information. I really only rely on weather.gov for info (and phone calls to him). I will only look at the news for local closings and that sort of stuff. I never pay attention to weather reports on TV.

In comment 14074086 Rick5 said:

Quote:

a very experienced meteorologist with NOAA. He told me long ago to go to the source for information. I really only rely on weather.gov for info (and phone calls to him). I will only look at the news for local closings and that sort of stuff. I never pay attention to weather reports on TV.

And NOAA is reporting: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED. (All-caps theirs)

but local governments don't rely on that, they're going by NOAA and their own OEM departments. If they decide to close school, it's likely less because of the risk that the school will be inundated by rain and more because they don't want people panicking last minute as the storm approaches and putting students at risk.

Risk averse, maybe - but if the question is making a few safety calls over losing a day of spring break vacation, it's really not a tough decision.

I'm not minimizing the risk to the coast.

I'm talking about 3.5 hours inland.

the latest models still show Charlotte for a 60-70% chance of getting tropical storm force winds (>39 mph) between now and Sat 8pm with 6-10 inches of rainfall (through next Thursday).

I have no idea what effect that will have on power, though.

actually has a helpline at 704-329-3703 for "northerners and other transplants who have not been through a hurricane before".

They also just said we will get 7 inches of rain in the next 7 days.

We are expected to have sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts that will reach 35mph on Saturday. Luckily, I'll be at the Clemson game so I avoid the incoming devastation...

the thing they constantly drill home is that the loss to human life is typically more about the sustained rainfall than heavy winds, and less because of flooding but because of weakened soil that gives way to falling trees or damaged trees losing heavy branches.

Happens here in NYC all the time, when a heavy rainstorm will end up killing someone with a falling branch (the last well publicized instance was when the Google exec was killed in Central Park).

Granted, a city of 10 million having 1 death isn't exactly a 'killstorm' but it's a reasonable cause for a public advisory.

the NBC station is having a Hurricane Special:

Quote:

Hurricane Special- The NBC Charlotte team with the latest track and forecast as your family prepares for the historic impact of Hurricane Florence.

"Historic Impact" - ( New Window )

IMHO, why not err on the side of caution several days out? Is there really another option? The predictions several days out aren't binary.

isn't erring on the side of caution, it is sensationlizing it, giving catchy names to the storms and making them a sideshow.

And there is an element of fearmongering that sends people into a panic.

They just had a person from Duke Energy say that they expect widespread power outages on the coast. Understandable.

She then went on to say that the Charlotte area could see power outages, not gauged in hours or days, but in weeks.

That's fearmongering. Like I said above, the last time there were major power outages in Charlotte, it was for Hurricane Hugo which hit the area when it still had Category 3 winds. And even then, most people had power back within 10 days.

I was responding to Jim. I should have used the reply feature. I haven't seen crazy forecasts from the NWS for my region. They have seemed disinterested to me.

Gotcha. I wish more people went by NWS forecasts

Hoping you and your family remain safe. About this time last year, we went through Irma and had no power for a week. Are you in an evac area?

I'm 3.5 hours inland. We are in an area that is elevated so no risk of flooding were it to rain seriously. Actually going to Clemson for the weekend.

Thanks for asking

Fatman. As others have said....people are seeing it as a "Cat 2" storm and not realizing that the danger here is from the flooding and not the winds really.

In any event yes people do overreact but soaked ground is no bueno

In comment 14074451 FatMan in Charlotte said:

Quote:

I'm 3.5 hours inland. We are in an area that is elevated so no risk of flooding were it to rain seriously. Actually going to Clemson for the weekend. Thanks for asking

My sister lives in Va. Like you she is away from danger.

Glad you and family will be safe; hope others in NC, SC, too

Went to Clemson for a wedding last October, pretty cool, the reception and ceremony were in a chapel/facility along one of the lakes about 35 minutes outside the town, very Ozark (Netflix) like; of course, coupled it with a stay in Charleston. Ran in and near the Stadium, very impressive. Ya think Clemson takes its athletics seriously? lol

And this quote for you, from a mostly political tweeter:

Quote:

More Whenever there is one of those storms of the century I just laugh at how the Weather Channel sensationalizes a single location w/ Cantori standing in collected water when there's none 50 feet away. Hits from the only tree down in an area.

Ozark is actually filmed in Georgia - in terrain not too much different from the Clemson area!

near Seneca, maybe ~25 miles from Georgia line...pretty damn rural, and some of the towns in and around are pretty down and out, unlike the thriving Clemson

as is Seneca. I lived in Anderson for a few years.

Those rural towns aren't as bad off as some of SC's coastal towns are. Tons of poverty outside of the main tourist areas.

Chime in if you verify or contest this map

Outage Scale is hard to read:
from blue yellow orange red dark.red
0% 10% 30% 60% 100%

but the storm ended up being pretty devastating in the Carolinas, with as many as 20 fatalities reported. Virginia is getting hammered by the remnants right now, with localized flooding on both sides of the Blue Ridge.

from one of the half-dozen tornado touchdowns. My area looked largely spared but then after dark last night a huge thunderstorm cell dumped several inches in a matter of an hour and a half. Took out part of Route 15 and a bunch of secondary roads.

My wife wasn't able to pick up my son from elementary school until nearly 7:30 pm. It was chaos.

I've lived in central VA for half my life and I've never seen anything like that before. From my office window I could see two funnel clouds, and it seemed like every other minute the weather app on my phone would blare another alarm about another tornado touching down somewhere else around town. It's amazing there wasn't more destruction.