NFT: TS Florence Update

and 25 miles from the coast, we are watching this very closely.

I live in Charleston. This one looks like it's heading right for us. Even if Charleston is not a direct hit... flooding is potentially catastrophic.

I was just doing contract work on the NC coast last week. I really hope everyone stays safe and we don't get hammered too much.

boarded up. First time I felt the need since we bought the house in 1995.

on the NE region when there are so many BBI members along the SE Coast, Carolinas, and Midlantic. My apologies.

New gif (dunno if I can get it to present as gif or as url) on Florence's eye intensification: https://twitter.com/i/status/1039192762204209157

@MJVentrice is his Twitter handle. He's been very good in a host of scenarios, particularly mid- to longer-range, good analyst/adjudicator of models when they conflict

of a huge storm that just stalls over a region and keeps dumping rain on it. Not looking forward to that.

We are keeping an eye on it. We're far enough inland that we probably won't get a real Storm Surge, and this Golf Course is built around the drainage so it's handled the heavy rains in the past. The grocery stores haven't turned into a Zoo just yet. I picked up bottled water and such today.

Got plenty of batteries and canned goods in the pantry.....we're staying put. The Go-Bag is packed with essentials if we have to beat it outta here. But Hell, they don't even put up the H-urry-Cane Panels for anything less than Cat 4.

My biggest concern is the Alan Jackson Concert this Friday Night.

and have a flight from Orlando back to JFK Thursday at 1pm. Will I make it? How does it work in these situations? Will the flights be routed around the hurricane? Cancelled? Expect crazy delays?

Sorry if these are stupid questions, I have never been in a travel situation during a hurricane before.

It was already out.

I'm essentially on the NC State north campus.

that one dropsonde recorded surface winds of 143 knots (165 mph), which would be Cat 5. That is a shocking rapid intensification/bombogenesis

In comment 14069678 adamg said:

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I'm essentially on the NC State north campus.

I am in North Raleigh....Water and food are in short supply already.

In comment 14069588 KingBlue said:

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I live in Charleston. This one looks like it's heading right for us. Even if Charleston is not a direct hit... flooding is potentially catastrophic.

I live in Summerville.

In recent years major carriers have alerted travelers on affected routes that some or all of them may be shut down for a projected period of time and that travelers' change fees will be waived. Of course, this depends on the storm track, timing, severity, etc. It's not going to be neat and clean or surgically performed, lots of aircraft displaced and routes can take days to right-size.

My wife's nephew is a pilot (Airbus) for Jet Blue. I'll try to get a sense of company thinking, but it's probably too early.

Thanks! I am flying Jet Blue so that would be super helpful. I have the option of switching to a 6AM Thursday flight, but I'm not sure if that's necessary at this point.

In comment 14069675 Sebastian said:

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and have a flight from Orlando back to JFK Thursday at 1pm. Will I make it? How does it work in these situations? Will the flights be routed around the hurricane? Cancelled? Expect crazy delays? Sorry if these are stupid questions, I have never been in a travel situation during a hurricane before.

It's really dependent on winds. If JFK and/or MCO are receiving high winds, there will be delays. Neither are forecast to be in the TS force area, at present, but that doesn't mean there's no possibility for disruption.

The hurricane is big, but not so huge that flying around it becomes impossible. If your flight has to reroute ahead of the storm or behind it, as opposed to essentially flying up the East Coast, that will add flying time to your trip, but in no event more than a hour.

The airlines will do everything they can to isolate the impact to airports directly affected by the storm. The real challenge is when a major weather event knocks out a major hub with hundreds of daily flights, which will cause knock-on effects throughout the system. Delta (ATL) and American (CLT) are watching this storm very carefully.

Per the Washington Post

at noon on Tuesday, according to The Post and Courier
https://www.postandcourier.com/news/evacuations-ordered-for-sc-coast-as-hurricane-florence-nears-effective/article_ecae59d2-b507-11e8-b430-c30c881683a8.html

Quote:

COLUMBIA � Gov. Henry McMaster will order evacuations along South Carolina�s entire 187-mile coastline border starting at noon Tuesday, saying residents and tourists must get out of Hurricane Florence�s potentially devastating path, according to several lawmakers briefed on the plans. The evacuations are expected to cover some areas inland prone to flooding, including Berkeley County and parts of Dorchester County. About one out of every five South Carolinians are in the evacuation zones. The eastbound lanes of Interstate 26 heading into Charleston and U.S. 501 into Myrtle Beach will be reversed when the order takes effect, opening all lanes to evacuees.

Schools closed as far inland as Lexington Co.

badass

I was in Florida for Irma, now I�m in Baltimore. 🙏🏼

I've been bitching about how the weather ruined my fishing. Stay safe everyone!

Florence strengthens to 140 mph with a 939 mb central pressure

25.4N, 61.1W
1170 miles ESE of Cape Fear, NC
140 mph winds
939 mb central pressure
Moving WNW at 13 mph (also a change)

Cone of uncertainty goes from the middle of the SC coast just north of Charleston up to Virginia Beach

In comment 14069690 Jints in Carolina said:

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In comment 14069678 adamg said: Quote: I'm essentially on the NC State north campus. I am in North Raleigh....Water and food are in short supply already.

Stay safe

This graphic showing Florence center on NC coast

In comment 14069678 adamg said:

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I'm essentially on the NC State north campus.

Get gas. If power goes out, the pumps are off. Get cash, if power goes out, no ATMs.

for the moment confirming the slight shift north in path, bringing Chesapeake and DC into play at the periphery of the cone. MJVentrice says Florence likely to become a Cat 5 w/i 12 -18 hours

evacuation of zone A here in Hampton Roads. I have no trees near the house and minimal risk of flooding. I am staying unless it looks like there will be cat 3 winds here. I would not trust my house in a cat 3 storm.

Get gas and extra gas. That was one of the biggest problems days before and after Irma here. Stations ran out days before.

If you're leaving your house do yourself a favor by emptying your fridge and freezers before you leave. You'll save a big mess later if you lose power for days. Also, turn off your main power at the fuse panel before you leave.

Stay safe all.

fill your bath tub and your pots, especially the big ones. Been through several hurricane and never lost water, FWIW.

Get your LPG gas grill tanks filled. (a camping coffee pot is good too.)

Get your food in cans.

Batteries for your flashlights.

Still looks like a NC hit but now everything up to DC/Baltimore is in play and it seems like Charleston, SC might get a reprieve from the worst. Still not completely set in stone yet

is potentially under greater threat than 24 hours ago

at 5 tonight. Would leave tomorrow morning. My house is all wood and of very average construction quality. If it looks like there is a decent probability of cat 2 winds at 5 tonight, I am gone. Schools already shut down here "until further notice."

In comment 14070953 Rick5 said:

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at 5 tonight. Would leave tomorrow morning. My house is all wood and of very average construction quality. If it looks like there is a decent probability of cat 2 winds at 5 tonight, I am gone. Schools already shut down here "until further notice."

Just get all your outside furniture, hoses and loose stuff into the garage before you go(or if you stay.)
Shut off the water main, empty the refrig as best you can remembering garbage pick up may not be available.
Be careful on the road. Smart to bug out early enough to not get stuck in traffic.

Then put a quarter or something similar on top.
When you come back home, check the cup in the freezer
If quarter is still o top, your good.
If quarter is not on top and lowered, you lost power and freezer defrosted.
Throw everything out. And call your insurance company and see if you had food spoilage coverage.

Stay safe everyone.

but Central VA and especially the Blue Ridge and into the Valley have had so much rain this year that the sorts of totals they're talking about, especially in a short amount of time, are likely to cause catastrophic flooding. Camille, the last Cat 5 to hit VA (not as a Cat 5 by the time it got there, of course) was one of the deadliest natural disasters in the state's history.

understanding of the models' variations, and he is often keyed in on Euro model. This is what it is projecting.

Take a look also at the overnight and into dawn look at Florence. The orbital satellite pic he posted late yesterday, and which Jim put up here, was on front page of NYT today's edition. Florence is not looking any weaker, Ventrice saying elsewhere it may be undergoing eye-wall replacement cycle that could portend further intensification. Worth a look

https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1039494825245073408

Be smart and stay/get safe, everyone.

the potential for historic property damage is certainly there, but the greater danger for lethality could end up being from flooding inland, especially if it stalls.

Zone Look-up Tool: Jim, et. al., this is for you, interactive tool, plug in address...BOL to all

https://vdemgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5797524b9a58440c8dbc06816e060492

those farthest south; obviously, this remains in flux as Florence's track clarifies in the next couple of days. NHC now forecasting landfall early Friday.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/south-carolina/article218180010.html

Implicit in the projections is that it is all open water between Florence's present position and the US mainland: no land mass to degrade the cyclone.

The first graphic, accompanied by the first commentary, is from a Senior Meteorologist at TWC, their employer. Ventrice (again, who I think is very good at parsing out the models, outliers, and eventual consensus among them) is skeptical, saying it's too early. That's the second commentary/quote.


Leonard:

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12z ECM: Really the worst case scenario for NC coast; the old sit and spin just east of ILM. 36+ hrs of storm surge and hurricane force wind

Ventrice:

Quote:

The first run where a model stalled the storm off the coast of NC, followed by a south-southwestward motion thereafter. The precision of track forecast for #Florence isn't there yet in the models.

Lastly, Ventrice is projecting severe windspeeds when Florence makes landfall. Who at BBI can convert metric windspeed (10m scale) to mph?

that the U.S. Navy has ordered all ships at Norfolk out to sea.

We had just moved to the Richmond area 15 years ago when Isabel hit. And that storm was a cat 2 when it made landfall in northern NC and we still had loads of trees down and without power for 5 days (which wasnt that bad given other stories I heard).

toward Western SC/NC and beyond are correct, RVA and much of Virginia might escape with just heavy rain. Still probably flooding, but not on par with what would happen if you had the remnants of the cyclone passing over, with 50 MPH winds and 20" of water.

Mikes weather page/spaghetti models. He's on the clock 24 hours a day. Was great for Irma last year.

In comment 14071617 ColHowPepper said:

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The first graphic, accompanied by the first commentary, is from a Senior Meteorologist at TWC, their employer. Ventrice (again, who I think is very good at parsing out the models, outliers, and eventual consensus among them) is skeptical, saying it's too early. That's the second commentary/quote. Leonard: Quote: 12z ECM: Really the worst case scenario for NC coast; the old sit and spin just east of ILM. 36+ hrs of storm surge and hurricane force wind Ventrice: Quote: The first run where a model stalled the storm off the coast of NC, followed by a south-southwestward motion thereafter. The precision of track forecast for #Florence isn't there yet in the models. Lastly, Ventrice is projecting severe windspeeds when Florence makes landfall. Who at BBI can convert metric windspeed (10m scale) to mph?

10 meter is the height at which the wind speed is measured above sea level..

meters per sec x about 2.2 equals mph (10 m/sec about 22 mph)

is tremendously big and tremendously wet."

Please take this seriously and, if you're in a good situation, remember your friends and family who may not be fortunate or able and give them a hand.

In comment 14071617 ColHowPepper said:

Quote:

The first graphic, accompanied by the first commentary, is from a Senior Meteorologist at TWC, their employer. Ventrice (again, who I think is very good at parsing out the models, outliers, and eventual consensus among them) is skeptical, saying it's too early. That's the second commentary/quote. Leonard: Quote: 12z ECM: Really the worst case scenario for NC coast; the old sit and spin just east of ILM. 36+ hrs of storm surge and hurricane force wind Ventrice: Quote: The first run where a model stalled the storm off the coast of NC, followed by a south-southwestward motion thereafter. The precision of track forecast for #Florence isn't there yet in the models. Lastly, Ventrice is projecting severe windspeeds when Florence makes landfall. Who at BBI can convert metric windspeed (10m scale) to mph?

If the second graphic is meters/second, then 49 m/s, the top number on the scale, is approximately 110 mph

about hurricane force. That image depicts a very large field of hurricane force winds

thanks, I think

'10 meter is the height at which the wind speed is measured above sea level..
meters per sec x about 2.2 equals mph (10 m/sec about 22 mph)'

You don't want to complete the conversion, do you, based on that graphic? (;

Location: 27.5N, 67.1W
785 miles ESE of Cape Fear, NC
140 mph winds (up from 130)
Moving WNW at 17 mph
Central pressure: 945 mb

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings raised from South Santee River, SC to Duck, NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Hurricane Watches raised for South Santee River, SC to Edisto Beach, SC and Duck, NC to the NC/VA border

Tropical Storm Watches raised for the NC/VA border up to Cape Charles Light, VA and the Chesapeake south of New Point Comfort, VA (so basically the entire Hampton Roads region)

tnks, it's not at all clear to me what the scale is '(kts)', doesn't refer to 'kt/s', and it's obvious it can't mean kilometers/second, but it is a big TC field.
FEMA's manager or director saying power in some affected areas likely to be out for weeks...so much open water between the eye and the coast. For the next 60 hours, we need some kind of divine intervention to turn Florence around

.

1 knot is about 1.15 mph. 6 knots equals about 7 mph. So 120 knots is abput 140 mph.

In comment 14071757 ColHowPepper said:

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tnks, it's not at all clear to me what the scale is '(kts)', doesn't refer to 'kt/s', and it's obvious it can't mean kilometers/second, but it is a big TC field. FEMA's manager or director saying power in some affected areas likely to be out for weeks...so much open water between the eye and the coast. For the next 60 hours, we need some kind of divine intervention to turn Florence around

Kts = Knots (nautical mph)

1 knot = 1.151 mph

Should of said Knots is a nautical speed scale.

storm warning for Virginia Beach. My office is closed for the rest of the week. I am staying put. The winds won't be strong enough, and the whole region would have to be submerged for my house to flood.

wind speed probabilities.
link - ( New Window )

a big doh, here, thanks for steering me clear of the shoals, oh, wait, I think I already breached my hull...how could I have not figured that?

explains Rick5's comment on reducing to TStorm warning for Virginia Beach:

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The models are still trying to focus on the precise path of Hurricane #Florence and the resolution still isn't there yet. Big shift in today's ECMWF EPS in favor the 12Z ECMWF Op. This is a solution that favors more of a South Carolina impact. We must wait and watch.

but given that it's due to make landfall on Friday, could this disrupt the team's travel plan to Texas?

I've been here for most of my miserable life and these predictions that the surge will stretch into WVA and western parts of VA are always bunk. The tidewater is in trouble but once that thing hits the blue ridge it's squeezed dry, it doesn't ever stay together once the mountains rise. We have had one or two rainy whacks from a Hurricane and w/ the exception of lower lying Alexandria and areas directly along the Potomac, no one is in life threatening anything, HERE anyway. Central VA will be fine, NVA will be fine, it's the same spots that are in trouble and that sucks for them.

But we've already had very severe, in some cases fatal flooding this year. The ground is saturated. It doesn't mean we are going to face a catastrophe, but the flooding could be quite serious if we get more than the outer edge of the storm.

and purports to explain why Florence vector is morphing toward SC
(except Papin can't get NE sorted out from NW, lol. Ventrice and Papin are fans of one another)

Quote:

7) Indeed, when you compare the new #FV3 vs. the #GFS, it depicts a track further to the south & west. It has been consistently further south & west vs. the operational GFS. I suggest this is related to the new microphysics & dynamical core.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312

Our Weatherman, wherefor art thou???

In comment 14072023 ColHowPepper said:

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and purports to explain why Florence vector is morphing toward SC (except Papin can't get NE sorted out from NW, lol. Ventrice and Papin are fans of one another) Quote: 7) Indeed, when you compare the new #FV3 vs. the #GFS, it depicts a track further to the south & west. It has been consistently further south & west vs. the operational GFS. I suggest this is related to the new microphysics & dynamical core. https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312 Our Weatherman, wherefor art thou???

If you mean BBI�s Weatherman, he left the site 2-3 years ago.

It's not only Florence: acc Ventrice, potential GOM TD (completely off the radar with focus on Florence) and Isaac may re-form, re-intensify.

Jim, I'm aware Weatherman left (about time his thesis was about to be finalized, I think), just a call for the stability of nostalgia. (How do you get the gifs to be active? I can't replicate those.)

Two hours ago from MJV:

Quote:

My thoughts: Florence is a lock for a devastating U.S. impact. I also am buying into the idea for a weak Tropical Storm threat for Texas. This TX threat is not being well advised as all eyes are on Florence. I am also buying into the idea for potential reintenification of #Isaac.

Georgia now potentially in the cone of destruction, Virginia less so...pick your poison...good for some, bad for some, stay safe.

Ventrice tends to put a lot of stock into the Euro model, and it has served well. Click the link, cuz I can't get it to translate live/active into the comment box. https://twitter.com/i/status/1039808641128452096

Florence worst case scenario exploded
Tropical storm to TX
Issac might reintensify and affect the Gulf
And now a possible hurricane forming and following Florence

All in the last 12-24 hours. WOW!!!

To everyone in the paths, stay safe.

Taken 11:47 UTC, so 7:47 AM EDT, 9/12/18 (from your nautical expert, lol). Florence is one big mofo

Here in Raleigh we'll still see effects of it, but hopefully not as bad.

Good news for Virginia, though.

In comment 14072301 Greg from LI said:

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Good news for Virginia, though.

And a friend of mine and his wife who just moved from DC to Wilmington, NC last week are heading to Atlanta this morning to get away from the storm.

So now I'm gonna have to take a day off. Bah.

Ventrice is estimating that Florence's eye is 2 degrees of longitude wide.

Quote:

Watch out, America! #HurricaneFlorence is so enormous, we could only capture her with a super wide-angle lens from the @Space_Station, 400 km directly above the eye. Get prepared on the East Coast, this is a no-kidding nightmare coming for you. #Horizons

Hoping the boys keep the candle burning here and hope for best for those impacted by Florence.

...or was the ocean unusually warm this summer. Delaware and NJ in July and August felt piss warm to me.

Not at all surprised to see this monster parked out there.

Rockaway in early Aug was already much warmer than usual we noticed

was at the OBX and Virginia Beach in July and August and it wasn't noticeably warmer than usual. I've found the ocean chillier in a similar timeframe, but I've certainly found it warmer as well.

In comment 14072830 x meadowlander said:

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...or was the ocean unusually warm this summer. Delaware and NJ in July and August felt piss warm to me. Not at all surprised to see this monster parked out there.

The difference in ocean temperature would be almost imperceptible, the moving average was slightly higher. The temps were also late to rise this year, early in the summer (and late spring) were colder than usual.

Of course, barely imperceptible to us can still be highly catastrophic otherwise.

and that water is fucking freezing.

Ventrice an hour ago, maybe the SE coastline will catch a small, relative break

Quote:

The inner core of #HurricanceFlorence is less organized compared to earlier today scans. The eye has become asymmetrical with a partial exposure on the southeast quadrant. This indicates the storm is weakening as it approaches the Carolina coast, though winds are still at 105kt.

Greg, do you teach history?

I want to kill them.

They lived here right on the bay in Jersey for Sandy and called us in the middle of the night saying they should have evac�d and water was almost in their living room. Now they are about to be doing the same thing down there. How thick can you be!!!!

In comment 14073272 BlueHurricane said:

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I want to kill them. They lived here right on the bay in Jersey for Sandy and called us in the middle of the night saying they should have evac�d and water was almost in their living room. Now they are about to be doing the same thing down there. How thick can you be!!!!

My cousins are staying too. They are in that Myrtle beach area but not right on the water.

In comment 14073272 BlueHurricane said:

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I want to kill them. They lived here right on the bay in Jersey for Sandy and called us in the middle of the night saying they should have evac�d and water was almost in their living room. Now they are about to be doing the same thing down there. How thick can you be!!!!

No lesson learned, eh?

They are about 2.5 miles inland. If there is a surge of 6-9feet as predicted they will have sever issues.

In comment 14073326 BlueHurricane said:

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They are about 2.5 miles inland. If there is a surge of 6-9feet as predicted they will have sever issues.

2.5 miles inland? Unless they are near a lake, stream or at the base of a hill, they'll be ok from flooding. I'd worry more about trees falling over from wind and soaking wet, soft ground.

At least it looks like the velocity prediction is dropping this morning.

think the coast will get hammered by a storm surge, the coverage of the hurricane has been all the local news has covered since Monday. "Historic storm". A rush of people getting gas, water and bread in Charlotte.

Now, we'll be able to make sandwiches and watch 25 mile per hour winds drop some rain on us.

While I wouldn't personally stick around the coast, the overhyping of many storms starts to get under people's skin.

aint leaving.
Link - ( New Window )

I remember people whining about this over the winter. Then we got two feet of snow and had no power for a week. There's no winning.

In comment 14073416 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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think the coast will get hammered by a storm surge, the coverage of the hurricane has been all the local news has covered since Monday. "Historic storm". A rush of people getting gas, water and bread in Charlotte. Now, we'll be able to make sandwiches and watch 25 mile per hour winds drop some rain on us. While I wouldn't personally stick around the coast, the overhyping of many storms starts to get under people's skin.

Can't sell papers unless the Headline is sensational...and I agree it gets annoying. A couple years back a front came thru the Tampa area(IIRC) and some boaters got killed "because NWS under predicted the severity." People sued and won. Now NWS treats small craft warnings like gales and gales like hurricanes.

Problem is houses in NC(and SC) are not built like houses in Florida (after Andrew anyway). What we in FL would say "meh" to, will take out houses in NC like what Sandy did in NJ.

No, though I am a history fanatic. Why do you ask?

basis when you weigh in on topics of interest, controversy here. That history is your passion and not your profession is impressive.

Be careful.

In comment 14073502 section125 said:

Quote:

In comment 14073416 FatMan in Charlotte said: Quote: think the coast will get hammered by a storm surge, the coverage of the hurricane has been all the local news has covered since Monday. "Historic storm". A rush of people getting gas, water and bread in Charlotte. Now, we'll be able to make sandwiches and watch 25 mile per hour winds drop some rain on us. While I wouldn't personally stick around the coast, the overhyping of many storms starts to get under people's skin. Can't sell papers unless the Headline is sensational...and I agree it gets annoying. A couple years back a front came thru the Tampa area(IIRC) and some boaters got killed "because NWS under predicted the severity." People sued and won. Now NWS treats small craft warnings like gales and gales like hurricanes. Problem is houses in NC(and SC) are not built like houses in Florida (after Andrew anyway). What we in FL would say "meh" to, will take out houses in NC like what Sandy did in NJ.

I remember that. The sad part is the NWS is usually spot on with marine forecasts, and yet it never fails, you'll find guys going out because 'you can't trust the weatherman'.

Side note - these guys are getting more and more accurate because of the amount of data they collect and the processing power at their disclosure. Here's an interesting article on the use of marine drones for collection of ocean data (salinity, temperature, etc.).
https://www.wired.com/story/hurricane-florence-underwater-drone-slocum-glider/ - ( New Window )

interestingly enough NWS/NOAA people say the best and most accurate info they get is from ship observations world wide. Almost every ship sailing the oceans makes weather observations every 6 hrs (3 hrs within 300 miles of Trop Storms) and sends to NOAA which then disseminates the info. Data, data data.
NOAA is very accurate 72 hrs out.

discussion of jcn, the guy MJVentrice I've harped on twtr (he is for the first time going to be an on camera commentator, for Florence coverage, for the TWC, fwiw), he is a models geek. The data, data, data that is available is fed to computers, NWS, NOAA, Euro models, and more, and the bias, leverage, and algorithms in their respective software differs, and guys like Ventrice, who know their meteorological science well, also get to know the bias of different models and factor that into their assessments...they can run hot and cold, like stock market analysts. But MJV has been good and pretty spot on with his early calls that Florence would not hover/linger toward northern NC and call that a turn west/south was in the cards. We'll see.

click the link to get the gif motion (there must be a trick to this; I can't convert it to BBI metrics https://twitter.com/i/status/1040104483093667840

along the Atlantic Seaboard, in addition, of course, to the outer bands of the TC itself https://twitter.com/i/status/1040232880977465345

Quote:

Outer rain bands from #hurricaneflorence are now impacting the Carolinas. This is when you need to watch for quick torando spin ups

Ventrice...gif on outer bands moving ashore
https://twitter.com/i/status/1040249113265106945

https://twitter.com/i/status/1040253237616619520
Hope no BBIers staying put along the coast...this flooding from the surge is already 'impressive', as in scary, this early

they can collect and the level of modeling that can be done to create probability models to track these weather patters is absolutely incredible. Sites like [url]http://spaghettimodels.com/[/u] are incredible resources.

I understand the concern that some media outlets are driven by eyeballs, but the guys who oversee and interpret these models are evaluated and motivated by accuracy and precision.

If something has an 70% chance of being catastrophic and a 5% chance of being a total dud, it does not serve the public well to count on that 5%.

by overstating the potential for catastrophe sometimes. It makes people numb, if not completely indifferent to the officials issuing the warnings, who are not playing around or just trying to get views.

I saw it first hand here with Sandy, where people directly in harm's way decided to stay put because they thought it was just a media invention after they didn't see enough damage from Irene.

a balance that needs to happen.

And coverage should reflect that. On the coast, it is absolutely essential to provide warnings and coordinate evacuations. Even low category storm with such a wide area is likely to cause devastating storm surges and flooding.

But inland, we've literally had constant coverage since Monday. I ended up getting gas at 6:45AM on Wednesday morning because Tuesday, lines were massive at gas stations with people filling up and getting fuel for generators. The grocery stores have had pallets of water in the front of the stores because they don't even have time to stock the shelves with them. Yesterday, there was no bread left on the shelves.

At first, Charlotte was warned we could get 16-20 inches of rain and suffer Category 2 force winds. Those projections are down to 2-4" of rain and winds of 35mph.

It is Parent's Weekend at Clemson and they cancelled the open house at the Architecture Dept. because of the warnings issued on Monday. They moved the football game up to Noon. Now, it looks like it will be light rain and mild winds throughout the weekend.

We have the ability to focus on those areas that need the information, but it too often comes off as creating panic, especially in those areas where the liklihood of severe damage is far less.

In comment 14073775 FatMan in Charlotte said:

Quote:

a balance that needs to happen. And coverage should reflect that. On the coast, it is absolutely essential to provide warnings and coordinate evacuations. Even low category storm with such a wide area is likely to cause devastating storm surges and flooding. But inland, we've literally had constant coverage since Monday. I ended up getting gas at 6:45AM on Wednesday morning because Tuesday, lines were massive at gas stations with people filling up and getting fuel for generators. The grocery stores have had pallets of water in the front of the stores because they don't even have time to stock the shelves with them. Yesterday, there was no bread left on the shelves. At first, Charlotte was warned we could get 16-20 inches of rain and suffer Category 2 force winds. Those projections are down to 2-4" of rain and winds of 35mph. It is Parent's Weekend at Clemson and they cancelled the open house at the Architecture Dept. because of the warnings issued on Monday. They moved the football game up to Noon. Now, it looks like it will be light rain and mild winds throughout the weekend. We have the ability to focus on those areas that need the information, but it too often comes off as creating panic, especially in those areas where the liklihood of severe damage is far less.

They don�t have the ability to nail down an exact track days out. Do you suggest they wait until it�s 12 hours away when they�re 100% sure where it�s going? And then say run for your lives?

Yes, the media will blare the headlines, but it's up to us to be discriminating consumers and do our diligence, is it not? Weather can not be tamed (except, God willing, when it comes to climate change, there, my bias). So the news earlier this week was that Florence's track would take her across NC and well up into VA. Folks I know in Lexington, VA, near Lynchburg, were taking it very seriously. Thankfully, threats to that region are now minimized. The storm evolved so the land targets have to evolve.

Sandy was not even that 'powerful' a storm in terms of Saffir-Simpson, but it obviously wrought enormous damage. If folks in the NYC Metro area had given Irene more careful thought when it came to Sandy, they would not have been lulled into complacency. Irene whisked by the NYC Metro region but did enormous damage right up into the Upper (Connecticut River) Valley in New Hampshire, impacting VT as well, cutting off villages for weeks such that vital supplies had to be airlifted in. Road travel was impossible for weeks in some parts. Not everything is cookie cutter.

So, it's easy to assail the press for over- or under-reaction, and indeed, coverage is often unbalanced. Most people, excepting a lot of smart folks on BBI, read and react and don't give it much thought beyond what's blaring in the Street. We're given to chaos inducing news, the real and the fake.

Here is a link to a page that has Live WebCams on the NC/SC beaches.

If anyone has anything better, please link.
WATCH: Webcams offer real-time view of Hurricane Florence - ( New Window )

The Capital Weather Gang of the Washington Post does some very good weather analysis without, in my view, unnecessary hype. They're pretty straightforward. And WaPo has removed article limits/pay wall for Flo-related content. I include the link to the Capital Weather Gang's main page.
Washington Post Capital Weather Gang - ( New Window )

TWC is doing the same, removing pay walls, broadcast on Sirius 125 (if I remember correctly) whether or not you're a subscriber and I think also NPR, not sure of latter.

see if the right side of the table comes out

right hand scale is 7-day rainfall events through Wilmington history, with Florence projected at ~ 37 inches.

This one is for the Fat Man (:

the severity of this storm for the coast.

They are going to get walloped with precipitation and that alone causes problems.

The early reports suggesting flooding in central VA, most of NC and upper SC are fine warnings.

My biggest gripe is when they sensationalize it. This storm has been called "historic" - the largest hurricane to ever hit the Eat Coast (which I believe is now going to be false. The local news said that the rainfall predicted for Charlotte is the most in a 3 day span in the past 104 years, which is definitely going to be false.

Charlotte's school district cancelled school TODAY. There's not a drop of rain on the ground, nor any significant wind. They now lose a day on Spring Break. Luckily our school district was much more pragmatic and waited to see the latest forecast before deciding to have classes.

and sensationalized or are other variables affecting the storm and changing the course/strength from what it was projecting to to do a couple days ago, making those places not hit as hard lucky? I don't know the answer.

I think that if news services spent more time explaining that they are probability models, subject to change, and all the variables that could affect it-- it would fall on deaf ears and many lay people wouldn't understand what to do. In a way to be clear and get the message out, they treat the most likely outcomes effectively as current reality.

they are most certainly sensationalized or you wouldn't hear things like "Storm of the Century" or other monikers meant to catch viewers attention. Last year, they deemed one storm, "Winter Armageddon" and schools proactively closed two days before it hit - and hit is an understatement. We got less than an inch of snow - although the storm did hit the NC mountains pretty hard.

I do know this though. When they say on Monday that Florence is targeting the Carolinas and people in charlotte had better prepare to be without power for several days, it certainly sends people panicking. They aren't going out and pillaging the shelves of water and bread because of a reasonable weather model, they are doing it because they are basically being told there is imminent danger.

The most Charlotte has been out of power on a widespread basis in the last 20 years is 2 days during an ice storm.

The last time there was a significant cleanup and power loss due to a hurricane was Hurricane Hugo in 1989 - a category 5 storm.

A coworker summed up the phenomenon nicely today - "Weather porn". He said it gives people a purpose for worrying.

I'll reiterate that these types of events can be very dangerous for the coast. Inland 3.5 hours it takes a very, very special circumstance.

In comment 14074069 FatMan in Charlotte said:

Quote:

they are most certainly sensationalized or you wouldn't hear things like "Storm of the Century" or other monikers meant to catch viewers attention. Last year, they deemed one storm, "Winter Armageddon" and schools proactively closed two days before it hit - and hit is an understatement. We got less than an inch of snow - although the storm did hit the NC mountains pretty hard. I do know this though. When they say on Monday that Florence is targeting the Carolinas and people in charlotte had better prepare to be without power for several days, it certainly sends people panicking. They aren't going out and pillaging the shelves of water and bread because of a reasonable weather model, they are doing it because they are basically being told there is imminent danger. The most Charlotte has been out of power on a widespread basis in the last 20 years is 2 days during an ice storm. The last time there was a significant cleanup and power loss due to a hurricane was Hurricane Hugo in 1989 - a category 5 storm. A coworker summed up the phenomenon nicely today - "Weather porn". He said it gives people a purpose for worrying. I'll reiterate that these types of events can be very dangerous for the coast. Inland 3.5 hours it takes a very, very special circumstance.

The federal government is telling the news organizations this. The President went on national TV and said:


�They haven't seen anything like what's coming at us in 25, 30 years, maybe ever. It's tremendously big and tremendously wet, tremendous amounts of water. It could very well be very similar to Texas in the sense that it's tremendous amounts of water ... probably more water than we've ever seen in a storm or a hurricane.�

a very experienced meteorologist with NOAA. He told me long ago to go to the source for information. I really only rely on weather.gov for info (and phone calls to him). I will only look at the news for local closings and that sort of stuff. I never pay attention to weather reports on TV.

In comment 14074086 Rick5 said:

Quote:

a very experienced meteorologist with NOAA. He told me long ago to go to the source for information. I really only rely on weather.gov for info (and phone calls to him). I will only look at the news for local closings and that sort of stuff. I never pay attention to weather reports on TV.

And NOAA is reporting: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED. (All-caps theirs)

but local governments don't rely on that, they're going by NOAA and their own OEM departments. If they decide to close school, it's likely less because of the risk that the school will be inundated by rain and more because they don't want people panicking last minute as the storm approaches and putting students at risk.

Risk averse, maybe - but if the question is making a few safety calls over losing a day of spring break vacation, it's really not a tough decision.

I'm not minimizing the risk to the coast.

I'm talking about 3.5 hours inland.

the latest models still show Charlotte for a 60-70% chance of getting tropical storm force winds (>39 mph) between now and Sat 8pm with 6-10 inches of rainfall (through next Thursday).

I have no idea what effect that will have on power, though.

actually has a helpline at 704-329-3703 for "northerners and other transplants who have not been through a hurricane before".

They also just said we will get 7 inches of rain in the next 7 days.

We are expected to have sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts that will reach 35mph on Saturday. Luckily, I'll be at the Clemson game so I avoid the incoming devastation...

the thing they constantly drill home is that the loss to human life is typically more about the sustained rainfall than heavy winds, and less because of flooding but because of weakened soil that gives way to falling trees or damaged trees losing heavy branches.

Happens here in NYC all the time, when a heavy rainstorm will end up killing someone with a falling branch (the last well publicized instance was when the Google exec was killed in Central Park).

Granted, a city of 10 million having 1 death isn't exactly a 'killstorm' but it's a reasonable cause for a public advisory.

the NBC station is having a Hurricane Special:

Quote:

Hurricane Special- The NBC Charlotte team with the latest track and forecast as your family prepares for the historic impact of Hurricane Florence.

"Historic Impact" - ( New Window )

IMHO, why not err on the side of caution several days out? Is there really another option? The predictions several days out aren't binary.

isn't erring on the side of caution, it is sensationlizing it, giving catchy names to the storms and making them a sideshow.

And there is an element of fearmongering that sends people into a panic.

They just had a person from Duke Energy say that they expect widespread power outages on the coast. Understandable.

She then went on to say that the Charlotte area could see power outages, not gauged in hours or days, but in weeks.

That's fearmongering. Like I said above, the last time there were major power outages in Charlotte, it was for Hurricane Hugo which hit the area when it still had Category 3 winds. And even then, most people had power back within 10 days.

I was responding to Jim. I should have used the reply feature. I haven't seen crazy forecasts from the NWS for my region. They have seemed disinterested to me.

Gotcha. I wish more people went by NWS forecasts

Hoping you and your family remain safe. About this time last year, we went through Irma and had no power for a week. Are you in an evac area?

I'm 3.5 hours inland. We are in an area that is elevated so no risk of flooding were it to rain seriously. Actually going to Clemson for the weekend.

Thanks for asking

Fatman. As others have said....people are seeing it as a "Cat 2" storm and not realizing that the danger here is from the flooding and not the winds really.

In any event yes people do overreact but soaked ground is no bueno

In comment 14074451 FatMan in Charlotte said:

Quote:

I'm 3.5 hours inland. We are in an area that is elevated so no risk of flooding were it to rain seriously. Actually going to Clemson for the weekend. Thanks for asking

My sister lives in Va. Like you she is away from danger.

Glad you and family will be safe; hope others in NC, SC, too

Went to Clemson for a wedding last October, pretty cool, the reception and ceremony were in a chapel/facility along one of the lakes about 35 minutes outside the town, very Ozark (Netflix) like; of course, coupled it with a stay in Charleston. Ran in and near the Stadium, very impressive. Ya think Clemson takes its athletics seriously? lol

And this quote for you, from a mostly political tweeter:

Quote:

More Whenever there is one of those storms of the century I just laugh at how the Weather Channel sensationalizes a single location w/ Cantori standing in collected water when there's none 50 feet away. Hits from the only tree down in an area.

Ozark is actually filmed in Georgia - in terrain not too much different from the Clemson area!

near Seneca, maybe ~25 miles from Georgia line...pretty damn rural, and some of the towns in and around are pretty down and out, unlike the thriving Clemson

as is Seneca. I lived in Anderson for a few years.

Those rural towns aren't as bad off as some of SC's coastal towns are. Tons of poverty outside of the main tourist areas.

Chime in if you verify or contest this map

Outage Scale is hard to read:
from blue yellow orange red dark.red
0% 10% 30% 60% 100%

but the storm ended up being pretty devastating in the Carolinas, with as many as 20 fatalities reported. Virginia is getting hammered by the remnants right now, with localized flooding on both sides of the Blue Ridge.

from one of the half-dozen tornado touchdowns. My area looked largely spared but then after dark last night a huge thunderstorm cell dumped several inches in a matter of an hour and a half. Took out part of Route 15 and a bunch of secondary roads.

My wife wasn't able to pick up my son from elementary school until nearly 7:30 pm. It was chaos.

I've lived in central VA for half my life and I've never seen anything like that before. From my office window I could see two funnel clouds, and it seemed like every other minute the weather app on my phone would blare another alarm about another tornado touching down somewhere else around town. It's amazing there wasn't more destruction.