NFT: TS Florence Update

and 25 miles from the coast, we are watching this very closely.

I live in Charleston. This one looks like it's heading right for us. Even if Charleston is not a direct hit... flooding is potentially catastrophic.

I was just doing contract work on the NC coast last week. I really hope everyone stays safe and we don't get hammered too much.

boarded up. First time I felt the need since we bought the house in 1995.

on the NE region when there are so many BBI members along the SE Coast, Carolinas, and Midlantic. My apologies.

New gif (dunno if I can get it to present as gif or as url) on Florence's eye intensification: https://twitter.com/i/status/1039192762204209157

@MJVentrice is his Twitter handle. He's been very good in a host of scenarios, particularly mid- to longer-range, good analyst/adjudicator of models when they conflict

of a huge storm that just stalls over a region and keeps dumping rain on it. Not looking forward to that.

We are keeping an eye on it. We're far enough inland that we probably won't get a real Storm Surge, and this Golf Course is built around the drainage so it's handled the heavy rains in the past. The grocery stores haven't turned into a Zoo just yet. I picked up bottled water and such today.

Got plenty of batteries and canned goods in the pantry.....we're staying put. The Go-Bag is packed with essentials if we have to beat it outta here. But Hell, they don't even put up the H-urry-Cane Panels for anything less than Cat 4.

My biggest concern is the Alan Jackson Concert this Friday Night.

and have a flight from Orlando back to JFK Thursday at 1pm. Will I make it? How does it work in these situations? Will the flights be routed around the hurricane? Cancelled? Expect crazy delays?

Sorry if these are stupid questions, I have never been in a travel situation during a hurricane before.

It was already out.

I'm essentially on the NC State north campus.

that one dropsonde recorded surface winds of 143 knots (165 mph), which would be Cat 5. That is a shocking rapid intensification/bombogenesis

In comment 14069678 adamg said:

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I'm essentially on the NC State north campus.

I am in North Raleigh....Water and food are in short supply already.

In comment 14069588 KingBlue said:

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I live in Charleston. This one looks like it's heading right for us. Even if Charleston is not a direct hit... flooding is potentially catastrophic.

I live in Summerville.

In recent years major carriers have alerted travelers on affected routes that some or all of them may be shut down for a projected period of time and that travelers' change fees will be waived. Of course, this depends on the storm track, timing, severity, etc. It's not going to be neat and clean or surgically performed, lots of aircraft displaced and routes can take days to right-size.

My wife's nephew is a pilot (Airbus) for Jet Blue. I'll try to get a sense of company thinking, but it's probably too early.

Thanks! I am flying Jet Blue so that would be super helpful. I have the option of switching to a 6AM Thursday flight, but I'm not sure if that's necessary at this point.

In comment 14069675 Sebastian said:

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and have a flight from Orlando back to JFK Thursday at 1pm. Will I make it? How does it work in these situations? Will the flights be routed around the hurricane? Cancelled? Expect crazy delays? Sorry if these are stupid questions, I have never been in a travel situation during a hurricane before.

It's really dependent on winds. If JFK and/or MCO are receiving high winds, there will be delays. Neither are forecast to be in the TS force area, at present, but that doesn't mean there's no possibility for disruption.

The hurricane is big, but not so huge that flying around it becomes impossible. If your flight has to reroute ahead of the storm or behind it, as opposed to essentially flying up the East Coast, that will add flying time to your trip, but in no event more than a hour.

The airlines will do everything they can to isolate the impact to airports directly affected by the storm. The real challenge is when a major weather event knocks out a major hub with hundreds of daily flights, which will cause knock-on effects throughout the system. Delta (ATL) and American (CLT) are watching this storm very carefully.

Per the Washington Post

at noon on Tuesday, according to The Post and Courier
https://www.postandcourier.com/news/evacuations-ordered-for-sc-coast-as-hurricane-florence-nears-effective/article_ecae59d2-b507-11e8-b430-c30c881683a8.html

Quote:

COLUMBIA � Gov. Henry McMaster will order evacuations along South Carolina�s entire 187-mile coastline border starting at noon Tuesday, saying residents and tourists must get out of Hurricane Florence�s potentially devastating path, according to several lawmakers briefed on the plans. The evacuations are expected to cover some areas inland prone to flooding, including Berkeley County and parts of Dorchester County. About one out of every five South Carolinians are in the evacuation zones. The eastbound lanes of Interstate 26 heading into Charleston and U.S. 501 into Myrtle Beach will be reversed when the order takes effect, opening all lanes to evacuees.

Schools closed as far inland as Lexington Co.

badass

I was in Florida for Irma, now I�m in Baltimore. 🙏🏼

I've been bitching about how the weather ruined my fishing. Stay safe everyone!

Florence strengthens to 140 mph with a 939 mb central pressure

25.4N, 61.1W
1170 miles ESE of Cape Fear, NC
140 mph winds
939 mb central pressure
Moving WNW at 13 mph (also a change)

Cone of uncertainty goes from the middle of the SC coast just north of Charleston up to Virginia Beach

In comment 14069690 Jints in Carolina said:

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In comment 14069678 adamg said: Quote: I'm essentially on the NC State north campus. I am in North Raleigh....Water and food are in short supply already.

Stay safe

This graphic showing Florence center on NC coast

In comment 14069678 adamg said:

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I'm essentially on the NC State north campus.

Get gas. If power goes out, the pumps are off. Get cash, if power goes out, no ATMs.

for the moment confirming the slight shift north in path, bringing Chesapeake and DC into play at the periphery of the cone. MJVentrice says Florence likely to become a Cat 5 w/i 12 -18 hours

evacuation of zone A here in Hampton Roads. I have no trees near the house and minimal risk of flooding. I am staying unless it looks like there will be cat 3 winds here. I would not trust my house in a cat 3 storm.

Get gas and extra gas. That was one of the biggest problems days before and after Irma here. Stations ran out days before.

If you're leaving your house do yourself a favor by emptying your fridge and freezers before you leave. You'll save a big mess later if you lose power for days. Also, turn off your main power at the fuse panel before you leave.

Stay safe all.

fill your bath tub and your pots, especially the big ones. Been through several hurricane and never lost water, FWIW.

Get your LPG gas grill tanks filled. (a camping coffee pot is good too.)

Get your food in cans.

Batteries for your flashlights.

Still looks like a NC hit but now everything up to DC/Baltimore is in play and it seems like Charleston, SC might get a reprieve from the worst. Still not completely set in stone yet

is potentially under greater threat than 24 hours ago

at 5 tonight. Would leave tomorrow morning. My house is all wood and of very average construction quality. If it looks like there is a decent probability of cat 2 winds at 5 tonight, I am gone. Schools already shut down here "until further notice."

In comment 14070953 Rick5 said:

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at 5 tonight. Would leave tomorrow morning. My house is all wood and of very average construction quality. If it looks like there is a decent probability of cat 2 winds at 5 tonight, I am gone. Schools already shut down here "until further notice."

Just get all your outside furniture, hoses and loose stuff into the garage before you go(or if you stay.)
Shut off the water main, empty the refrig as best you can remembering garbage pick up may not be available.
Be careful on the road. Smart to bug out early enough to not get stuck in traffic.

Then put a quarter or something similar on top.
When you come back home, check the cup in the freezer
If quarter is still o top, your good.
If quarter is not on top and lowered, you lost power and freezer defrosted.
Throw everything out. And call your insurance company and see if you had food spoilage coverage.

Stay safe everyone.

but Central VA and especially the Blue Ridge and into the Valley have had so much rain this year that the sorts of totals they're talking about, especially in a short amount of time, are likely to cause catastrophic flooding. Camille, the last Cat 5 to hit VA (not as a Cat 5 by the time it got there, of course) was one of the deadliest natural disasters in the state's history.

understanding of the models' variations, and he is often keyed in on Euro model. This is what it is projecting.

Take a look also at the overnight and into dawn look at Florence. The orbital satellite pic he posted late yesterday, and which Jim put up here, was on front page of NYT today's edition. Florence is not looking any weaker, Ventrice saying elsewhere it may be undergoing eye-wall replacement cycle that could portend further intensification. Worth a look

https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1039494825245073408

Be smart and stay/get safe, everyone.

the potential for historic property damage is certainly there, but the greater danger for lethality could end up being from flooding inland, especially if it stalls.

Zone Look-up Tool: Jim, et. al., this is for you, interactive tool, plug in address...BOL to all

https://vdemgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5797524b9a58440c8dbc06816e060492

those farthest south; obviously, this remains in flux as Florence's track clarifies in the next couple of days. NHC now forecasting landfall early Friday.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/south-carolina/article218180010.html

Implicit in the projections is that it is all open water between Florence's present position and the US mainland: no land mass to degrade the cyclone.

The first graphic, accompanied by the first commentary, is from a Senior Meteorologist at TWC, their employer. Ventrice (again, who I think is very good at parsing out the models, outliers, and eventual consensus among them) is skeptical, saying it's too early. That's the second commentary/quote.


Leonard:

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12z ECM: Really the worst case scenario for NC coast; the old sit and spin just east of ILM. 36+ hrs of storm surge and hurricane force wind

Ventrice:

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The first run where a model stalled the storm off the coast of NC, followed by a south-southwestward motion thereafter. The precision of track forecast for #Florence isn't there yet in the models.

Lastly, Ventrice is projecting severe windspeeds when Florence makes landfall. Who at BBI can convert metric windspeed (10m scale) to mph?

that the U.S. Navy has ordered all ships at Norfolk out to sea.

We had just moved to the Richmond area 15 years ago when Isabel hit. And that storm was a cat 2 when it made landfall in northern NC and we still had loads of trees down and without power for 5 days (which wasnt that bad given other stories I heard).

toward Western SC/NC and beyond are correct, RVA and much of Virginia might escape with just heavy rain. Still probably flooding, but not on par with what would happen if you had the remnants of the cyclone passing over, with 50 MPH winds and 20" of water.

Mikes weather page/spaghetti models. He's on the clock 24 hours a day. Was great for Irma last year.

In comment 14071617 ColHowPepper said:

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The first graphic, accompanied by the first commentary, is from a Senior Meteorologist at TWC, their employer. Ventrice (again, who I think is very good at parsing out the models, outliers, and eventual consensus among them) is skeptical, saying it's too early. That's the second commentary/quote. Leonard: Quote: 12z ECM: Really the worst case scenario for NC coast; the old sit and spin just east of ILM. 36+ hrs of storm surge and hurricane force wind Ventrice: Quote: The first run where a model stalled the storm off the coast of NC, followed by a south-southwestward motion thereafter. The precision of track forecast for #Florence isn't there yet in the models. Lastly, Ventrice is projecting severe windspeeds when Florence makes landfall. Who at BBI can convert metric windspeed (10m scale) to mph?

10 meter is the height at which the wind speed is measured above sea level..

meters per sec x about 2.2 equals mph (10 m/sec about 22 mph)

is tremendously big and tremendously wet."

Please take this seriously and, if you're in a good situation, remember your friends and family who may not be fortunate or able and give them a hand.

In comment 14071617 ColHowPepper said:

Quote:

The first graphic, accompanied by the first commentary, is from a Senior Meteorologist at TWC, their employer. Ventrice (again, who I think is very good at parsing out the models, outliers, and eventual consensus among them) is skeptical, saying it's too early. That's the second commentary/quote. Leonard: Quote: 12z ECM: Really the worst case scenario for NC coast; the old sit and spin just east of ILM. 36+ hrs of storm surge and hurricane force wind Ventrice: Quote: The first run where a model stalled the storm off the coast of NC, followed by a south-southwestward motion thereafter. The precision of track forecast for #Florence isn't there yet in the models. Lastly, Ventrice is projecting severe windspeeds when Florence makes landfall. Who at BBI can convert metric windspeed (10m scale) to mph?

If the second graphic is meters/second, then 49 m/s, the top number on the scale, is approximately 110 mph

about hurricane force. That image depicts a very large field of hurricane force winds