NFT: TS Florence Update

thanks, I think

'10 meter is the height at which the wind speed is measured above sea level..
meters per sec x about 2.2 equals mph (10 m/sec about 22 mph)'

You don't want to complete the conversion, do you, based on that graphic? (;

Location: 27.5N, 67.1W
785 miles ESE of Cape Fear, NC
140 mph winds (up from 130)
Moving WNW at 17 mph
Central pressure: 945 mb

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings raised from South Santee River, SC to Duck, NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Hurricane Watches raised for South Santee River, SC to Edisto Beach, SC and Duck, NC to the NC/VA border

Tropical Storm Watches raised for the NC/VA border up to Cape Charles Light, VA and the Chesapeake south of New Point Comfort, VA (so basically the entire Hampton Roads region)

tnks, it's not at all clear to me what the scale is '(kts)', doesn't refer to 'kt/s', and it's obvious it can't mean kilometers/second, but it is a big TC field.
FEMA's manager or director saying power in some affected areas likely to be out for weeks...so much open water between the eye and the coast. For the next 60 hours, we need some kind of divine intervention to turn Florence around

.

1 knot is about 1.15 mph. 6 knots equals about 7 mph. So 120 knots is abput 140 mph.

In comment 14071757 ColHowPepper said:

Quote:

tnks, it's not at all clear to me what the scale is '(kts)', doesn't refer to 'kt/s', and it's obvious it can't mean kilometers/second, but it is a big TC field. FEMA's manager or director saying power in some affected areas likely to be out for weeks...so much open water between the eye and the coast. For the next 60 hours, we need some kind of divine intervention to turn Florence around

Kts = Knots (nautical mph)

1 knot = 1.151 mph

Should of said Knots is a nautical speed scale.

storm warning for Virginia Beach. My office is closed for the rest of the week. I am staying put. The winds won't be strong enough, and the whole region would have to be submerged for my house to flood.

wind speed probabilities.
link - ( New Window )

a big doh, here, thanks for steering me clear of the shoals, oh, wait, I think I already breached my hull...how could I have not figured that?

explains Rick5's comment on reducing to TStorm warning for Virginia Beach:

Quote:

The models are still trying to focus on the precise path of Hurricane #Florence and the resolution still isn't there yet. Big shift in today's ECMWF EPS in favor the 12Z ECMWF Op. This is a solution that favors more of a South Carolina impact. We must wait and watch.

but given that it's due to make landfall on Friday, could this disrupt the team's travel plan to Texas?

I've been here for most of my miserable life and these predictions that the surge will stretch into WVA and western parts of VA are always bunk. The tidewater is in trouble but once that thing hits the blue ridge it's squeezed dry, it doesn't ever stay together once the mountains rise. We have had one or two rainy whacks from a Hurricane and w/ the exception of lower lying Alexandria and areas directly along the Potomac, no one is in life threatening anything, HERE anyway. Central VA will be fine, NVA will be fine, it's the same spots that are in trouble and that sucks for them.

But we've already had very severe, in some cases fatal flooding this year. The ground is saturated. It doesn't mean we are going to face a catastrophe, but the flooding could be quite serious if we get more than the outer edge of the storm.

and purports to explain why Florence vector is morphing toward SC
(except Papin can't get NE sorted out from NW, lol. Ventrice and Papin are fans of one another)

Quote:

7) Indeed, when you compare the new #FV3 vs. the #GFS, it depicts a track further to the south & west. It has been consistently further south & west vs. the operational GFS. I suggest this is related to the new microphysics & dynamical core.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312

Our Weatherman, wherefor art thou???

In comment 14072023 ColHowPepper said:

Quote:

and purports to explain why Florence vector is morphing toward SC (except Papin can't get NE sorted out from NW, lol. Ventrice and Papin are fans of one another) Quote: 7) Indeed, when you compare the new #FV3 vs. the #GFS, it depicts a track further to the south & west. It has been consistently further south & west vs. the operational GFS. I suggest this is related to the new microphysics & dynamical core. https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312 Our Weatherman, wherefor art thou???

If you mean BBI’s Weatherman, he left the site 2-3 years ago.

It's not only Florence: acc Ventrice, potential GOM TD (completely off the radar with focus on Florence) and Isaac may re-form, re-intensify.

Jim, I'm aware Weatherman left (about time his thesis was about to be finalized, I think), just a call for the stability of nostalgia. (How do you get the gifs to be active? I can't replicate those.)

Two hours ago from MJV:

Quote:

My thoughts: Florence is a lock for a devastating U.S. impact. I also am buying into the idea for a weak Tropical Storm threat for Texas. This TX threat is not being well advised as all eyes are on Florence. I am also buying into the idea for potential reintenification of #Isaac.

Georgia now potentially in the cone of destruction, Virginia less so...pick your poison...good for some, bad for some, stay safe.

Ventrice tends to put a lot of stock into the Euro model, and it has served well. Click the link, cuz I can't get it to translate live/active into the comment box. https://twitter.com/i/status/1039808641128452096

Florence worst case scenario exploded
Tropical storm to TX
Issac might reintensify and affect the Gulf
And now a possible hurricane forming and following Florence

All in the last 12-24 hours. WOW!!!

To everyone in the paths, stay safe.

Taken 11:47 UTC, so 7:47 AM EDT, 9/12/18 (from your nautical expert, lol). Florence is one big mofo

Here in Raleigh we'll still see effects of it, but hopefully not as bad.

Good news for Virginia, though.

In comment 14072301 Greg from LI said:

Quote:

Good news for Virginia, though.

And a friend of mine and his wife who just moved from DC to Wilmington, NC last week are heading to Atlanta this morning to get away from the storm.

So now I'm gonna have to take a day off. Bah.

Ventrice is estimating that Florence's eye is 2 degrees of longitude wide.

Quote:

Watch out, America! #HurricaneFlorence is so enormous, we could only capture her with a super wide-angle lens from the @Space_Station, 400 km directly above the eye. Get prepared on the East Coast, this is a no-kidding nightmare coming for you. #Horizons

Hoping the boys keep the candle burning here and hope for best for those impacted by Florence.

...or was the ocean unusually warm this summer. Delaware and NJ in July and August felt piss warm to me.

Not at all surprised to see this monster parked out there.

Rockaway in early Aug was already much warmer than usual we noticed

was at the OBX and Virginia Beach in July and August and it wasn't noticeably warmer than usual. I've found the ocean chillier in a similar timeframe, but I've certainly found it warmer as well.

In comment 14072830 x meadowlander said:

Quote:

...or was the ocean unusually warm this summer. Delaware and NJ in July and August felt piss warm to me. Not at all surprised to see this monster parked out there.

The difference in ocean temperature would be almost imperceptible, the moving average was slightly higher. The temps were also late to rise this year, early in the summer (and late spring) were colder than usual.

Of course, barely imperceptible to us can still be highly catastrophic otherwise.

and that water is fucking freezing.

Ventrice an hour ago, maybe the SE coastline will catch a small, relative break

Quote:

The inner core of #HurricanceFlorence is less organized compared to earlier today scans. The eye has become asymmetrical with a partial exposure on the southeast quadrant. This indicates the storm is weakening as it approaches the Carolina coast, though winds are still at 105kt.

Greg, do you teach history?

I want to kill them.

They lived here right on the bay in Jersey for Sandy and called us in the middle of the night saying they should have evac’d and water was almost in their living room. Now they are about to be doing the same thing down there. How thick can you be!!!!

In comment 14073272 BlueHurricane said:

Quote:

I want to kill them. They lived here right on the bay in Jersey for Sandy and called us in the middle of the night saying they should have evac’d and water was almost in their living room. Now they are about to be doing the same thing down there. How thick can you be!!!!

My cousins are staying too. They are in that Myrtle beach area but not right on the water.

In comment 14073272 BlueHurricane said:

Quote:

I want to kill them. They lived here right on the bay in Jersey for Sandy and called us in the middle of the night saying they should have evac’d and water was almost in their living room. Now they are about to be doing the same thing down there. How thick can you be!!!!

No lesson learned, eh?

They are about 2.5 miles inland. If there is a surge of 6-9feet as predicted they will have sever issues.

In comment 14073326 BlueHurricane said:

Quote:

They are about 2.5 miles inland. If there is a surge of 6-9feet as predicted they will have sever issues.

2.5 miles inland? Unless they are near a lake, stream or at the base of a hill, they'll be ok from flooding. I'd worry more about trees falling over from wind and soaking wet, soft ground.

At least it looks like the velocity prediction is dropping this morning.

think the coast will get hammered by a storm surge, the coverage of the hurricane has been all the local news has covered since Monday. "Historic storm". A rush of people getting gas, water and bread in Charlotte.

Now, we'll be able to make sandwiches and watch 25 mile per hour winds drop some rain on us.

While I wouldn't personally stick around the coast, the overhyping of many storms starts to get under people's skin.

aint leaving.
Link - ( New Window )

I remember people whining about this over the winter. Then we got two feet of snow and had no power for a week. There's no winning.

In comment 14073416 FatMan in Charlotte said:

Quote:

think the coast will get hammered by a storm surge, the coverage of the hurricane has been all the local news has covered since Monday. "Historic storm". A rush of people getting gas, water and bread in Charlotte. Now, we'll be able to make sandwiches and watch 25 mile per hour winds drop some rain on us. While I wouldn't personally stick around the coast, the overhyping of many storms starts to get under people's skin.

Can't sell papers unless the Headline is sensational...and I agree it gets annoying. A couple years back a front came thru the Tampa area(IIRC) and some boaters got killed "because NWS under predicted the severity." People sued and won. Now NWS treats small craft warnings like gales and gales like hurricanes.

Problem is houses in NC(and SC) are not built like houses in Florida (after Andrew anyway). What we in FL would say "meh" to, will take out houses in NC like what Sandy did in NJ.

No, though I am a history fanatic. Why do you ask?

basis when you weigh in on topics of interest, controversy here. That history is your passion and not your profession is impressive.

Be careful.