last night the Mets were officially mathematically eliminated from the post-season, though non-mathematically they were realistically out of it before the AS break.
Normally this day would be sort of melancholy, but I actually feel pretty good about the future.
Love the 2nd half from a lot of guys, and feel like there were a few surprises in the minors, enough to provide some hope.
I think this off-season and the GM decision are crucial, so I have hope.
And like Andy says to Red says in his letter in Shawshank Redemption:
| Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. |
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offseason would be signing Josh Donaldson, Jeurys Familia and maybe Andrew Miller.
Not that anything they do shocks me but that would suggest they full gave up on Alonso
No chance Donaldson could stick at third? You're probably right. Then it wouldn't make sense.
They could try and sign someone like Jed Lowrie, add Pollock, and then use the rest of the money on the bullpen.
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In comment 14083672 Metnut said:
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offseason would be signing Josh Donaldson, Jeurys Familia and maybe Andrew Miller.
Not that anything they do shocks me but that would suggest they full gave up on Alonso
No chance Donaldson could stick at third? You're probably right. Then it wouldn't make sense.
They could try and sign someone like Jed Lowrie, add Pollock, and then use the rest of the money on the bullpen.
Frazier is still here. They aren't benching Frazier so he'd be the 1b, Donaldson the 3b and Alonso and Dom buried.
You misspelled Jay Bruce
Truth is, lately I've been more optimistic and enjoying games a LOT more than a handful of months ago. I'm hopeful for next season. I think they could realistically contend.
You could even start Frazier at first (while they play service time games with Alsonso) out of camp.
You could even start Frazier at first (while they play service time games with Alsonso) out of camp.
You honestly see a scenario where the Mets are benching Frazier for Alonso and Donaldson? It's not happening. Trust me. Frazier is seen as the clubhouse leader and is going to end up posting a 2.0+ fWAR season despite missing a bunch of time. There is absolutely no way that happens. None. Going into 2019 Frazier will go into the year as one of their top 3-4 position players.
Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil.. and? Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening. So Alonso would be buried in this scenario no questions asked.
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easily be benched. He's not making much money and was a utility type on the Yankees. Solid player but he's not some type of allstar or core player that you have to absolutely find every day ABs for.
You could even start Frazier at first (while they play service time games with Alsonso) out of camp.
You honestly see a scenario where the Mets are benching Frazier for Alonso and Donaldson? It's not happening. Trust me. Frazier is seen as the clubhouse leader and is going to end up posting a 2.0+ fWAR season despite missing a bunch of time. There is absolutely no way that happens. None. Going into 2019 Frazier will go into the year as one of their top 3-4 position players.
Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil.. and? Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening. So Alonso would be buried in this scenario no questions asked.
Dan, not sure what you mean by "Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening." Can you clarify? Thanks.
He's tradable. He's not moving to the bench. In fact, even if they signed Machado they would almost certainly salary dump Frazier. I can't think of a single time the Mets had a player of Frazier's salary on the bench (and don't give me some scenario where the guy was so bad he eventually played less like Jason Bay).
So under this logic they can't go after Machado either?
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In comment 14083719 Metnut said:
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easily be benched. He's not making much money and was a utility type on the Yankees. Solid player but he's not some type of allstar or core player that you have to absolutely find every day ABs for.
You could even start Frazier at first (while they play service time games with Alsonso) out of camp.
You honestly see a scenario where the Mets are benching Frazier for Alonso and Donaldson? It's not happening. Trust me. Frazier is seen as the clubhouse leader and is going to end up posting a 2.0+ fWAR season despite missing a bunch of time. There is absolutely no way that happens. None. Going into 2019 Frazier will go into the year as one of their top 3-4 position players.
Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil.. and? Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening. So Alonso would be buried in this scenario no questions asked.
Dan, not sure what you mean by "Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening." Can you clarify? Thanks.
I'm hopeful Rosario is better than Todd Frazier in 2019, but benching Frazier just isn't happening so on paper Frazier is one of the top 3-4 best position players on the team headed into 2019. Rosario could be better than him next year but he surely wasn't this year so Frazier "is better".
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Frazier is 19th in fWAR at 3b despite only playing 103 games, 7th in defense. When was the last time the Mets had a 9 million dollar bench player? When would he play with a RH 1b/3b? Never.
So under this logic they can't go after Machado either?
Machado would = them dumping Frazier. Likely for a similar salaried player (reliever, SP, OF etc). If they signed Machado, Frazier would either be the starting 1b or not on the team.
Any slip in Frazier's defense will make him a player with little value. His OBP was .305 this year and that's driven by a major decrease in walk rate. I'm not bullish on him in 2019 given the major warning signs around this player.
Lagares was also the "co" starting CF to open the season. People were talking up his launch angle etc. He started the 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 9th games of the season. Conforto's shoulder was an issue and Nimmo was yet to break out. No such scenario with Frazier.
Sadly, Bruce is going to play.
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I doubt they trot him out every day in RF or block 1B.
Sadly, Bruce is going to play.
Or get traded for a similar salary at another position. That has to be one of the top priorities if u can get anything in the slightest bit useful for him.
If Frazier is still valuable (which I doubt given the cold market for him last offseason and his time injured this year) then the Mets could deal him for another asset after a 3B upgrade. Even if I'm wrong about benching him, it doesn't matter, because then just do a trade instead.
Step 1- Commit to Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario, Mcneil every day and give them as much playing time certainty as possible.
Step 2- Find the best 1 or 2 players you can to add around them. Machado? pinch me. Grandal? great. Pollock? Ok depending on price.
Step 3- Make use of remaining vets best you can. If a new player upgrades CF or 3B but blocks Bruce or Frazier, oh well. Trade them or suck it up and be happy to have the extra depth.
Step 1- Commit to Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario, Mcneil every day and give them as much playing time certainty as possible.
Step 2- Find the best 1 or 2 players you can to add around them. Machado? pinch me. Grandal? great. Pollock? Ok depending on price.
Step 3- Make use of remaining vets best you can. If a new player upgrades CF or 3B but blocks Bruce or Frazier, oh well. Trade them or suck it up and be happy to have the extra depth.
I agree with just about this entire post. +1
I outlined it before (of course it's just my opinion).
But fix the bullpen, and you can literally just throw money at it and fix it. That's how bullpens work in MLB.
Add s starting pitcher, not a long-term deal, but a proven veteran who isn't a dumpster dive where you overpay like Vargas again I named a few, Morton, Keuchel, or others.
And work on trading the fat like Bruce, Flores, Lagares, Swarzak,
and for me, I'd trade Alonso.
I know his prodigious power will have some people not want to do this and I wouldn't give him away, but I think his value could be the highest it will be right now and get back a veteran, solid fielding, non-black hole at the plate 1B.
If he's going to have fielding issues, all the bat in the world isn't what the Mets need, I cited the Giants teams - 3 WS wins in 5 years and not one player hit over 28 home runs. They didn't have more than 2 player OPS over .800 on any of those teams.
If the Mets can contend with those additions at the deadline you deal a prospect for an OFer to push Bruce to the bench.
Gimenez #30 (#7 SS)
Alonso #67 (#2.5 1b... McKay is listed as a 2 way player, Collins #1 pure 1b)
Kelenic #85 (#14 CF)
Mauricio #92 (#12 SS)
Peterson #125 (#48 P, 14th among lefties)
Dunn (unranked)
Vientos (unranked)
I outlined it before (of course it's just my opinion).
But fix the bullpen, and you can literally just throw money at it and fix it. That's how bullpens work in MLB.
Add s starting pitcher, not a long-term deal, but a proven veteran who isn't a dumpster dive where you overpay like Vargas again I named a few, Morton, Keuchel, or others.
And work on trading the fat like Bruce, Flores, Lagares, Swarzak,
and for me, I'd trade Alonso.
I know his prodigious power will have some people not want to do this and I wouldn't give him away, but I think his value could be the highest it will be right now and get back a veteran, solid fielding, non-black hole at the plate 1B.
If he's going to have fielding issues, all the bat in the world isn't what the Mets need, I cited the Giants teams - 3 WS wins in 5 years and not one player hit over 28 home runs. They didn't have more than 2 player OPS over .800 on any of those teams.
If the Mets can contend with those additions at the deadline you deal a prospect for an OFer to push Bruce to the bench.
Yes if they throw infinite money at the team they can fill all of the holes and be a contender but that would potentially mean swallowing money already committed to veterans in favor of better new players. That's what I meant in saying the pieces may not fit together perfectly, if the best upgrade available is in the OF they may need to do it even though Bruce and Cespedes are under contract for 2 more years. They've have rarely spent that way in the past but that's a different discussion.
Plus, we heard the same stuff about Wheeler this year. How stupid would it have been if Mets traded Wheeler in July? His value has at least doubled since then. You never trade a prospect who shows signs until you have to. You definitely don't trade someone to give extra ABs to the likes of Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce. That's ludicrous.
The way you stay a losing organization is trying to correct one mistake by making another. Frazier and Bruce were not good signings. Own up to the mistake and wait out their contracts.
Don't engage in the fantasy that if Bruce and Frazier get "showcased" with extra ABs, they will somehow become tradeable. Ain't happening.
Good organizations admit they made a mistake. They don't commit further mistakes by trying to rectify their earlier ones. That's how you wind up with Mel Rojas and Mo Vaughn.
2017 wRC+ 107
2018 wRC+ 103
2017 .331 wOBA
2018 .317 wOBA
At 5 million or so bucks that's an expensive player when you are already paying Cespedes and Wright significant money NOT to play, awful Vargas, Bruce, Lagares..
The rest is downsledding and you can adjust and tweak the roster accordingly even mid 2019 if need be.
I'd love a Machado or Harper 1st, that should go without saying but short of that.
No one is talking about it, but I think Kershaw can even opt out, if he does (unlikely from what I read), holy shit, I'd be all over him even in his diminished state. Not a 7 year 9 figure deal, but a 3 year 8 figure deal absolutely.
Sign two elite bullpen pieces.
Kimbrel: 5 years $75M
Familia: 3 years $30M
Add those two to Gsellman, Lugo, add a LOOGY and fill in with the reclamation projects and the bullpen is a long way toward fixed.
Starting pitcher:
Dream scenario, Kershaw opts out. 3 years $90M
Realistic case:
Keuchel, Corbin, Morton: figure 2019 Salary of $20M.
So I added:
Corbin
Kimbrel
Familia
for $ 50M on the 2019 payroll
That has the Mets payroll with arbitration at $170M
of course they'll need other additions, but this is before dealing anyone like Flores, Lagares, or anyone else.
And knowing that Frazier comes off the books after the season and then Bruce and Cespedes the following year to allow for (optionally) Wheeler and deGrom extensions.
McNeil 2B
Machado 3B
Conforto RF
Alonso 1B
Bruce RF
Rosario SS
Plawecki C
Maybe Cespedes joins you for the postseason.
Wheeler
DeGrom
Thor
Matz
Vargas
Kimbrel
Swarzak
Drew Smith
Gsellman
Lugo
Zamora
Mejia
Hanhold
(Look for a potential setup target in season or a bad contract swap prior.)
2017 wRC+ 107
2018 wRC+ 103
2017 .331 wOBA
2018 .317 wOBA
At 5 million or so bucks that's an expensive player when you are already paying Cespedes and Wright significant money NOT to play, awful Vargas, Bruce, Lagares..
But that's the whole point about a breakout candidate: they turn a corner and hit way above their career numbers, usually by increasing their power numbers.
Now, if Wilmer were a free agent this year and we were talking about signing him to a multi-year deal, I would agree that you let him go. But one year at 6 million? It's foolish not to give a guy who is only 27 and has learned to hit righties this year, one extra year. Especially if the reason you are moving him is to give extra ABs to Bruce and Frazier, two declining vets in their 30s. Like I said, that's making another mistake in order to justify previous bad signings.
"Reyes should be released.
-McNeil should be with the big club. He's had an incredible season and both the team and fans deserve something positive added
-Blevins, Cabrera, Frazier, Familia, Mesoraco should all be traded
negotiate the most you can get for these guys and move on.
-Aggressively shop DeGrom and Thor.... for ABSURD packages. That doesn't mean you deal them. It means YOU do the groundwork, YOU shoot for the stars. The Padres in particularly could put together a franchise altering package. White Sox (also rumored to be interested) also have that capability. Fernando Tatis Jr. (for example) could be a superstar on the level of Reyes or Wright as soon as next season
- Aggressively shop Matz and Wheeler. Again, same thought process. Very weak SP market... don't just assume you can't land xyz. Just ask.
- Be open to dealing Wilmer despite him being a fan favorite. Wilmer is a solid player but if someone wants to give you a nice cost controlled young player or 2 with 6 years of control he's easily replaceable.
-Be open to moving on from Callaway. I'm not losing my mind over a manager but he seems over his head. If the Mets really do go outside the organization for a GM (I very much doubt this happens) they MUST allow this new guy to have the power to can Mickey. Anyone brought in who has the manager forced upon him =balls already in the Wilpon vice.
- Call the Yankees and ask to speak to Oppenheimer. They may yet say no but Cashman actually is very close with Omar and knows Ricco well. It's not out of the question that they allow a long time employee leave for a major job as a personal courtesy."
I'd love a Machado or Harper 1st, that should go without saying but short of that.
No one is talking about it, but I think Kershaw can even opt out, if he does (unlikely from what I read), holy shit, I'd be all over him even in his diminished state. Not a 7 year 9 figure deal, but a 3 year 8 figure deal absolutely.
Sign two elite bullpen pieces.
Kimbrel: 5 years $75M
Familia: 3 years $30M
Add those two to Gsellman, Lugo, add a LOOGY and fill in with the reclamation projects and the bullpen is a long way toward fixed.
Starting pitcher:
Dream scenario, Kershaw opts out. 3 years $90M
Realistic case:
Keuchel, Corbin, Morton: figure 2019 Salary of $20M.
So I added:
Corbin
Kimbrel
Familia
for $ 50M on the 2019 payroll
That has the Mets payroll with arbitration at $170M
of course they'll need other additions, but this is before dealing anyone like Flores, Lagares, or anyone else.
And knowing that Frazier comes off the books after the season and then Bruce and Cespedes the following year to allow for (optionally) Wheeler and deGrom extensions.
If they do all that I'd be ecstatic, but that's a yankee offseason not a mets offseason. Fred generally just complains about the Yankees. He rarely acts like them. I'd just honestly be enormously shocked to land 1 of Kimbrel/Kershaw/Machado/Harper let alone multiple. I hope I'm wrong but if I had to bet on it I'd say they don't get any of those guys.
The best I can envision realistically would probably be:
- Andrew Miller (down year for him so there are other better relievers available, plus Callaway connection)
- Familia (said he liked it here, I still think he's a good closer)
- Grandal (he's not perfect but he'd be a big upgrade at a huge hole of a position)
Then 1 trade for someone exciting/unexpected - most likely it's a CF or 3B. Perhaps Alonso is trade bait. Or Dunn. Or Matz. Or Wheeler. Or if nobody is on the trade market better than Pollock I could see them signing him if he's hanging around in January. And possibly signing a SP if they've traded a SP.
My father (a diehard Yankees fan) told me many times during the 2008-2009 off-season the Yankees would sign all of Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett. I said no way. Sure as shit, Yankees signed them all.
My father (a diehard Yankees fan) told me many times during the 2008-2009 off-season the Yankees would sign all of Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett. I said no way. Sure as shit, Yankees signed them all.
If the Yankees were in the position we're in, they would sign Kimbrel, Miller, Machado, Grandal. I 100% believe that.
My father (a diehard Yankees fan) told me many times during the 2008-2009 off-season the Yankees would sign all of Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett. I said no way. Sure as shit, Yankees signed them all.
Those days are gone. The Yankees want to stay under the luxury tax now just like everyone else. The Yankees have needed a legit number two starter for a looooong time now but instead of going after the Arrietta's and Darvish's this past offseason they settled for retreads like Sabathia on one year deals. Sure, they've spent more than us but I dont believe this is accurate any longer.
Josh Chapdelaine
@JoshChapdelaine
Giancarlo Stanton: 3.4 bWAR
Brandon Nimmo: 4.1 bWAR
Anthony DiComo
✔
@AnthonyDiComo
Sandy Alderson, tongue in cheek, on why the Mets did not pursue Giancarlo Stanton: "With Brandon Nimmo in right field, we just didn't feel that we had a need there."