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NFT: Another NY Mets season officially put out of its misery

pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 9:30 am
last night the Mets were officially mathematically eliminated from the post-season, though non-mathematically they were realistically out of it before the AS break.

Normally this day would be sort of melancholy, but I actually feel pretty good about the future.

Love the 2nd half from a lot of guys, and feel like there were a few surprises in the minors, enough to provide some hope.

I think this off-season and the GM decision are crucial, so I have hope.

And like Andy says to Red says in his letter in Shawshank Redemption:

Quote:
Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.




There are definitely some bright spots -  
Section331 : 9/18/2018 9:34 am : link
starting pitching has been outstanding, Rosario is showing why the Mets were so high on him, Conforto playing really well, McNeil and Nimmo. My major concern is management deciding this team is a contender, or close to it, as is.

We need a big bat in the middle of the line-up, and to strengthen the bullpen.
Hope for the best, expect the worst  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 9:39 am : link
only safe way to root for this franchise. A ton of encouraging young talent. Need to get the management of the franchise right this time. Should be a more appealing job then it was in the past.
RE: Hope for the best, expect the worst  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 9:53 am : link
In comment 14082959 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
only safe way to root for this franchise. A ton of encouraging young talent. Need to get the management of the franchise right this time. Should be a more appealing job then it was in the past.


Last part of your statement comes down to dealing with the Wilpons. Is a top notch smart kid like Chaim Bloom really eager to work with Jeff? I suspect they hire a retread who just wants to get paid/last shot at being GM. Gary LaRocque is the clear favorite in the clubhouse in my view.
Sad  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 9:53 am : link
totally lost seasons for Cecchini/Rivera. Both could have seen significant PT.
It could be worse for Mets fans  
dep026 : 9/18/2018 9:54 am : link
you can have Gabe Kapler and his chart book as your manager.
It really is unfortunate...  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 9:56 am : link
So much went right, or even surpassed, what we realistically expected this year. If not for our historic losing streaks both in May and then again for most of June, we are likely in the playoffs right now. We had a complete blackout of offense during a time that our pitching was actually pitching extremely well. Of course, our 30 million a year man was nowhere to be found when we needed him the most, once again. Cespedes will go down as one of the worst signing in franchise history, considering the context, imo.
The  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 9:58 am : link
Mets should offer Bloom the keys to the car. He's the guy.
Link - ( New Window )
For so many things that look good  
Shecky : 9/18/2018 10:03 am : link
There are so many negatives.
I'll play the contrarian and focus on the positives.

Proving themselves as good starters at the ML level are McNeil, Nimmo, Rosario, Conforto. The rotation 1-3 is tops in the league. The lower levels of the minors look really, REALLY good. So there are some solid foundation pieces already here, with several more to follow Two of which are very close to the majors (Alonso and Gimenez).

Biggest thing this team is missing. Biggest need for this team is it literally and figuratively needs to swing for the fences and NOT MISS. A Carter move. A Piazza move. They absolutely cannot afford to miss. Whether it's this offseason, next season, free agent, trade, internal promotion. They need a keystone, and cannot afford to be wrong...
As  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 10:05 am : link
much as I like Conforto this team needs a legit middle of the order stud (easier said than done). I like Alonso but I don't believe he is that. I think Alonso will be similar to Lucas Duda. A nice above average regular but not "the guy" and I don't think "the guy" exists. From Piazza, to Wright to Yo. Currently "he" isn't here.
RE: As  
Shecky : 9/18/2018 10:06 am : link
In comment 14083045 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
much as I like Conforto this team needs a legit middle of the order stud (easier said than done). I like Alonso but I don't believe he is that. I think Alonso will be similar to Lucas Duda. A nice above average regular but not "the guy" and I don't think "the guy" exists. From Piazza, to Wright to Yo. Currently "he" isn't here.

Lol, well said Dan. Well said.
Exactly what I’ve been saying for months  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 10:11 am : link
We need the “Piazza move”. We need what Cespedes and Wright were supposed to be when we doled out hundreds of millions. Those guys didn’t work out and will soon be off the books. Try again. Now is the time to strike. You have three friggin Doc Goodens on the team at the same time. You have a young core of hitters starting to establish themselves. Get the star hitter that can ease the burden off everyone and address the pen. Two freaking moves could turn this team into a WS contender.
RE: RE: As  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 10:11 am : link
In comment 14083046 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 14083045 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


much as I like Conforto this team needs a legit middle of the order stud (easier said than done). I like Alonso but I don't believe he is that. I think Alonso will be similar to Lucas Duda. A nice above average regular but not "the guy" and I don't think "the guy" exists. From Piazza, to Wright to Yo. Currently "he" isn't here.


Lol, well said Dan. Well said.


It's obviously hard to find but the best teams all have hitters that scare the opposing team. That can carry a lineup. Guys like Nimmo and Conforto have had nice seasons but they are in the tier 2 "complimentary good" players. Teams like the Indians or Red Sox or Yankees or Astros... you catch my drift. I don't know where they find this guy (FA wise Machado and Harper are the only thing even remotely close in this class) but soon enough they will need to find that.
I think the Mets  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 10:17 am : link
should look at two things before a middle of the order bat.

1. bullpen (I said this last year and some people scoffed, you have to have stacked talent in the bullpen).

2. defense (this is harder to "fix" but IMO don't put Bruce at 1B because they signed him and need a spot for him, start a guy at 1B who is legit.

I don't think they need a traditional middle of the order bat, the Giants teams (2010) didn't have one, unless you count Posey or Aubrey Huff. 2012 was even worse with only one player who OPSd over .800 (Posey) and Melky but he didn't play all season. 2014 two guys OPS over .800 (Posey and Mike Morse).

The Mets teams remind me a little of those Giants teams, 3 WS in 5 years without a guy who hit 30 HR's.

Plus, I think bullpen and defense may be easier to fix than a middle of the order bat.

If the Mets can add a Machado or Harper I do it, but I don't think a middle of the order bat is the easiest way to get the Mets to contend.

1. Fix the bullpen
2. Fix the D
3. Strengthen the rotation (whether it's Morton or Keuchel or whoever, it strengthens a strength and protects against injury)

but as mentioned the biggest decision is whose driving the bus.




Not  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 10:22 am : link
only is the bullpen not stacked nearly every single guy they acquired last deadline disappointed. Hard to identify a single one of them you can confidently say is a big league RP let alone a good one. Doesn't mean it won't happen but as a group... awful.
D  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 10:24 am : link
is going to be very hard to fix. Alonso= below average, Plawecki = below average, McNeil is okay at 2b, Nimmo has been below average.
RE: D  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 10:33 am : link
In comment 14083104 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
is going to be very hard to fix. Alonso= below average, Plawecki = below average, McNeil is okay at 2b, Nimmo has been below average.


I think they have to trade Alsono, capitalize on his great season and deal him while his value is high.

The Mets need a Keith Hernandez type more than a huge, one-dimensional power guy at 1b.

RE: Not  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 10:40 am : link
In comment 14083093 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
only is the bullpen not stacked nearly every single guy they acquired last deadline disappointed. Hard to identify a single one of them you can confidently say is a big league RP let alone a good one. Doesn't mean it won't happen but as a group... awful.


Oh, I know it's not stacked, I'm saying it has to be.

this is where the bulk of my off-season budget would go. I'd even consider Kimbrel and Familia.
Do you really need a GM, honestly?  
Shecky : 9/18/2018 10:42 am : link
Payroll for 2019 is in the 140/150 ballpark. Minus wright and Ces. So another 30/35 off. Call it $115mm net

Go out and make some noise. Sign Harper. Sign Machado. Call it $60mm added to payroll. So at $175mm, made an insane amount of "noise", ticket sales through the roof, excitement, even the most pessimistic Mets fan (that's a hell of title to win lol) would be happy. THEN FIGURE OUT THE REST from there.

Flip Bruce for an overpaid RP or SP. Bruce for Melancon.
Flip Frazier for an overpaid RP, an Addison Reed type.
Flip Lagares for a live body?
Got WAY younger, WAY better offensively, filled some BP gaps. SP is still very good.

Lineup: Nimmo, Machado, Harper, Alonso, Conforto, Rosario, McNeil, Plawecki. An offense with power. Not the slowest team in the league. Guys who get on base. Balanced Lefty/righty. A pretty decent bench.

And yeah, if Ces comes back, figure it out. Good problem to have. Ces, fighting for playing time going into a contract year = monster :)

All a fantasy, but
RE: RE: Not  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 10:46 am : link
In comment 14083165 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14083093 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


only is the bullpen not stacked nearly every single guy they acquired last deadline disappointed. Hard to identify a single one of them you can confidently say is a big league RP let alone a good one. Doesn't mean it won't happen but as a group... awful.



Oh, I know it's not stacked, I'm saying it has to be.

this is where the bulk of my off-season budget would go. I'd even consider Kimbrel and Familia.


To be clear I was agreeing with you. The internal options just aren't that great. I assume they will sign Familia or gamble on Ottavino.
Shecky  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 10:48 am : link
I like your ideas but to move Lagares they will almost certainly have to take back another "bad" money player. 1 year 9 million for Lagares is way out of wack given his inability to stay healthy.
RE: RE: RE: Not  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 10:48 am : link
In comment 14083182 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14083165 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14083093 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


only is the bullpen not stacked nearly every single guy they acquired last deadline disappointed. Hard to identify a single one of them you can confidently say is a big league RP let alone a good one. Doesn't mean it won't happen but as a group... awful.



Oh, I know it's not stacked, I'm saying it has to be.

this is where the bulk of my off-season budget would go. I'd even consider Kimbrel and Familia.



To be clear I was agreeing with you. The internal options just aren't that great. I assume they will sign Familia or gamble on Ottavino.


They should sign both. They should spend $30M on the bullpen this year or more.

and another $15M on starting pitching.

RE: Shecky  
Shecky : 9/18/2018 10:53 am : link
In comment 14083186 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
I like your ideas but to move Lagares they will almost certainly have to take back another "bad" money player. 1 year 9 million for Lagares is way out of wack given his inability to stay healthy.


Yeah, assuming Vargas and Legares are both immovable. So when I say for a live body, I assume its salary neutral. But most likely have to keep both since there isnt much depth at either of those positions. In fantasy land GM world at least.

So $175mm payroll. Done. Ces is full health in 2020, assuming, yeah you have ag lut of OF and Nimmo or Conforto either have to be moved or Nimmo came back down to earth in 2019 and is your 4th OF like you thought anyway. 2020 payroll isnt so bad either with a couple of dead weight contracts coming off the books. And the kids in the minors are now the lower minors kids are ready to be promoted at ML minimum salary...
PJ  
Shecky : 9/18/2018 10:54 am : link
My fantasy land is bad enough. You want them to spend another $45mm on top? Bringing in Melacon and Reed types are way more likely
Mets need to find a guy  
Rory : 9/18/2018 12:10 pm : link
whos on the verge of a breakout season on a team that needs to rebuild. Similar to Yelich this year

Enter Nicholas Castellanos from Detroit.

Would Dunn and Smith be enough?
RE: Mets need to find a guy  
Jay on the Island : 9/18/2018 12:16 pm : link
In comment 14083440 Rory said:
Quote:
whos on the verge of a breakout season on a team that needs to rebuild. Similar to Yelich this year

Enter Nicholas Castellanos from Detroit.

Would Dunn and Smith be enough?

Castellanos is a poor defender also. Still that package isn’t close. Smith as little to no value at the moment.
The fantasy is Machado - he would be Beltran 2.0  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 12:18 pm : link
other than him I just don't even see another under 30yo "Piazza" player anywhere - even considering unrealistic trade targets. Trout, Betts, Bregman, Ramirez, JDM, Yelich, Chapman, Freeman, Altuve, Baez - none of those guys are going anywhere. Goldschmidt is a FA next year I think, so maybe you can pry him out of AZ with a Wheeler + Alonso + something else type deal? But I personally don't see it. Harper is less of a good fit but he would be a big addition.

If I were GM I would go the KC Royals / Oakland style team and continue building on Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario, Mcneil with more solid two way players and try to spend my way to a dominant BP. Simplest signings would be a Pollock in CF and Grandal for C. I think Alonso has a higher upside than Duda, but I wouldn't be opposed to dealing him if the right move came along.
RE: PJ  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 12:24 pm : link
In comment 14083204 Shecky said:
Quote:
My fantasy land is bad enough. You want them to spend another $45mm on top? Bringing in Melacon and Reed types are way more likely



Not on top of your fantasy land, instead of it.

baseball is all guaranteed contracts, so lessen the hit in 2019if you need to and backload them on 3 year deals.

The Mets do not have a salary on the books right now for 2021 from what I know.

Vargas and Frazier are off the books after next year. Bruce and Cespy the year after that.

So two years clears everything including Cespedes.

I know people don't want to believe it, but the Mets should be players for Harper and Machado (but we know they won't be).



.  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 12:27 pm : link
Brewers AAA team will now be the San Antonio Missions (previously the Colorado Spring Sky Sox), the previous Missions franchise is now in AA and will have a new name. Not confusing at all lol
Is that 115 with arb  
bhill410 : 9/18/2018 12:32 pm : link
A fair estimation of current team? Is that including ces but excluding wright?
RE: Is that 115 with arb  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 12:36 pm : link
In comment 14083495 bhill410 said:
Quote:
A fair estimation of current team? Is that including ces but excluding wright?


Roughly yes.
92.5 +  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 12:40 pm : link
arbitration for DeGrom, Wilmer, Thor, Conforto, Matz, Plawecki not including TDA/Montero both likely non-tendered.
RE: 92.5 +  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 12:41 pm : link
In comment 14083513 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
arbitration for DeGrom, Wilmer, Thor, Conforto, Matz, Plawecki not including TDA/Montero both likely non-tendered.


115 actually looks light from here running the numbers. DeGrom made 7.4 and Thor 2.0. So 92.5 + even their 2018 salaries puts them at 102 and both will get significant raises + the other guys. Probably closer to 120ish.
The Mets  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 12:43 pm : link
should trade Wilmer for a middle reliever or a B prospect.
RE: The Mets  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14083523 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
should trade Wilmer for a middle reliever or a B prospect.


I thought TJ Rivera could play the Wilmer role but the lost season makes him tough to trust. That being said with Frazier, Bruce, Alonso, Smith I don't think Wilmer is even needed at that price.
Yup. It’s time to flip Flores  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 1:13 pm : link
I’ll always love him but we can get backup middle infielder play from Rivera, Cheech, etc. He’s starting to get too expensive.
Yeah, that's what I mean  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 1:16 pm : link
don't need a utility infielder, who can't play D (in most people's minds, I don't think he's quite as bad as the metrics) and he can't pinch run.

I'd trade him to an AL team where he can DH vs lefties, play a utility role when needed and maybe get more consistent at -bats or not but at his salary, he's not providing enough value to the Mets as a deep bench guy.

I have no idea why we can’t sign Machado  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 1:16 pm : link
Looking at those payroll numbers. We clearly can. Obviously, a lot of teams will be involved and the new GM has to be ok with an extremely long term deal, but again... with Wright and Cespedes contracts coming to a close within two years... there’s really no reason why we couldn’t invest in one franchise bat like that.
Cabrera, Blevins, Familia, and Ramos  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 1:18 pm : link
Made more than Machado will make annually. And that’s before you get into clearing Frazier, Flores, and others.
If the Mets don't pursue  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 1:19 pm : link
Machado or Harper it's 100% by choice.

not that it always isn't by choice, but sometimes a team can legitimately use the luxury tax as a reason, or claim they have reached their payroll limit, etc.

the Mets have zero excuse other than it's their choice not to pursue one of the games biggest superstars in their prime.
I love Flores  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 1:19 pm : link
but he's not going to get every day ABs here. He might break out somewhere else, but if we could get a few years of a good reliever, I think we'd have to do the trade.

We really need to sign a stud 3B (or a 2B I guess) if we're going to move Flores IMO.
Just  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 1:20 pm : link
guessing but I suspect Machado gets 10 years with multiple out-outs.
Tebow  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 1:21 pm : link
expected to open in Syracuse. Dom Smith is not a major league OF, he's just not but if he's going to back up... Tim Tebow... in LF.... then cut bait with Dom now and deal with the repercussions should he do well.
RE: If the Mets don't pursue  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 1:24 pm : link
In comment 14083608 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Machado or Harper it's 100% by choice.

not that it always isn't by choice, but sometimes a team can legitimately use the luxury tax as a reason, or claim they have reached their payroll limit, etc.

the Mets have zero excuse other than it's their choice not to pursue one of the games biggest superstars in their prime.


+1
I think the  
RobThailand : 9/18/2018 1:24 pm : link
Mets started like 11-1 and i was honestly going to push the buy button for the MLB tv pass then i said well lets get my head together and see where this goes
Yup..guessing  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 1:25 pm : link
10 year, 30 AAV is the opening bid for both Machado and Harper.
The biggest hold up for me with Machado is why would he choose here?  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 1:33 pm : link
even if they do pursue him, and make a competitive offer, why would he come here? Jim Bowden did an article on the best fits for the top 20 impending FA, here's who he listed for Machado:

Quote:
Early best fits: Phillies, Cardinals, Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves.


Even with the caveat that Bowden generally sucks, it's hard to disagree that most of the above teams would be more appealing to Machado than the Mets right now. On top of the fact that most of the above teams have proven to spend more. So it really seems like it will take an unexpectedly disinterested market like Vlad Guerrero/Carlos Beltran for the Mets to emerge victorious.

Also Machado aside, the only player he lists the Mets as a fit for this offseason is Grandal, which is odd unless he's just counting on them continuing to be a non-player for most top FA.
Bowden: Scouting the Top 20 impending free agents, and finding their best fits ($) - ( New Window )
A Mets type of  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 1:42 pm : link
offseason would be signing Josh Donaldson, Jeurys Familia and maybe Andrew Miller.
.  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 1:43 pm : link
2019 Orioles figure to be awful again. Doubt they need a 29 year old arbitration eligible RP. Mets should look into him
Link - ( New Window )
Machado or Harper on the Mets makes us a contender  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 1:43 pm : link
In a playoff series, we likely have as good of a shot (if not better), than anyone. That’s before we even get into playing in the biggest media market in the world, the city life, etc. Somebody like Harper, specifically, would eat that shit up IMO.
RE: A Mets type of  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 1:44 pm : link
In comment 14083672 Metnut said:
Quote:
offseason would be signing Josh Donaldson, Jeurys Familia and maybe Andrew Miller.


Not that anything they do shocks me but that would suggest they full gave up on Alonso
I think AJ Pollock's  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 1:45 pm : link
injuries have been of the non-chronic type and he'd fill a huge need for us.

Even if we miss our on Machado or Harper (I can't see the Mets realistically winning a biding war for either) there's a bunch of good players in the second-tier that can really help us.
RE: RE: A Mets type of  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 1:46 pm : link
In comment 14083682 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14083672 Metnut said:


Quote:


offseason would be signing Josh Donaldson, Jeurys Familia and maybe Andrew Miller.



Not that anything they do shocks me but that would suggest they full gave up on Alonso


No chance Donaldson could stick at third? You're probably right. Then it wouldn't make sense.

They could try and sign someone like Jed Lowrie, add Pollock, and then use the rest of the money on the bullpen.
They  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 1:46 pm : link
will sign 500 year old Nick Markakis and then be surprised when he sucks next year.
RE: RE: RE: A Mets type of  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 1:48 pm : link
In comment 14083690 Metnut said:
Quote:
In comment 14083682 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 14083672 Metnut said:


Quote:


offseason would be signing Josh Donaldson, Jeurys Familia and maybe Andrew Miller.



Not that anything they do shocks me but that would suggest they full gave up on Alonso



No chance Donaldson could stick at third? You're probably right. Then it wouldn't make sense.

They could try and sign someone like Jed Lowrie, add Pollock, and then use the rest of the money on the bullpen.


Frazier is still here. They aren't benching Frazier so he'd be the 1b, Donaldson the 3b and Alonso and Dom buried.
RE: They  
Shecky : 9/18/2018 1:49 pm : link
In comment 14083691 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
will sign 500 year old Nick Markakis and then be surprised when he sucks next year.


You misspelled Jay Bruce
Funny. "Officially" out of its misery.  
Beezer : 9/18/2018 1:49 pm : link
lol

Truth is, lately I've been more optimistic and enjoying games a LOT more than a handful of months ago. I'm hopeful for next season. I think they could realistically contend.
Pollock is the most interesting realistic FA to me  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 1:56 pm : link
he is not as good as Cain and is having a down year, so if the market is similar I don't think he'd command a guaranteed 4th year, though his AAV would probably be somewhat similar. The injuries are a worry and not thrilled about paying for a CF's 31, 32, 33 year old seasons, but he is an above average hitter and still grades out positively in CF. 3 years 50m doesn't seem too crazy but if he's not much of an upgrade defensively over Nimmo in CF it may not be worth it. Even in a down year this year he's 1 of only 9 CF who has been above league average as a hitter and a positive impact defender.
Frazier could  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 2:01 pm : link
easily be benched. He's not making much money and was a utility type on the Yankees. Solid player but he's not some type of allstar or core player that you have to absolutely find every day ABs for.

You could even start Frazier at first (while they play service time games with Alsonso) out of camp.
RE: Frazier could  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:04 pm : link
In comment 14083719 Metnut said:
Quote:
easily be benched. He's not making much money and was a utility type on the Yankees. Solid player but he's not some type of allstar or core player that you have to absolutely find every day ABs for.

You could even start Frazier at first (while they play service time games with Alsonso) out of camp.


You honestly see a scenario where the Mets are benching Frazier for Alonso and Donaldson? It's not happening. Trust me. Frazier is seen as the clubhouse leader and is going to end up posting a 2.0+ fWAR season despite missing a bunch of time. There is absolutely no way that happens. None. Going into 2019 Frazier will go into the year as one of their top 3-4 position players.

Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil.. and? Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening. So Alonso would be buried in this scenario no questions asked.
Preach  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:06 pm : link
defense and then bench your best defensive player for a bad defensive 1b (ROOKIE) and Josh Donaldson coming off an awful season?
I don’t see us benching  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 2:09 pm : link
Frazier but I do think he’s easily moveable. One year left with minimal AAV. If we went after Machado or whoever, I would hope Frazier would get dumped asap.
Todd  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:10 pm : link
Frazier is 19th in fWAR at 3b despite only playing 103 games, 7th in defense. When was the last time the Mets had a 9 million dollar bench player? When would he play with a RH 1b/3b? Never.
RE: RE: Frazier could  
Beezer : 9/18/2018 2:11 pm : link
In comment 14083733 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14083719 Metnut said:


Quote:


easily be benched. He's not making much money and was a utility type on the Yankees. Solid player but he's not some type of allstar or core player that you have to absolutely find every day ABs for.

You could even start Frazier at first (while they play service time games with Alsonso) out of camp.



You honestly see a scenario where the Mets are benching Frazier for Alonso and Donaldson? It's not happening. Trust me. Frazier is seen as the clubhouse leader and is going to end up posting a 2.0+ fWAR season despite missing a bunch of time. There is absolutely no way that happens. None. Going into 2019 Frazier will go into the year as one of their top 3-4 position players.

Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil.. and? Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening. So Alonso would be buried in this scenario no questions asked.


Dan, not sure what you mean by "Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening." Can you clarify? Thanks.
RE: I don’t see us benching  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:12 pm : link
In comment 14083739 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Frazier but I do think he’s easily moveable. One year left with minimal AAV. If we went after Machado or whoever, I would hope Frazier would get dumped asap.


He's tradable. He's not moving to the bench. In fact, even if they signed Machado they would almost certainly salary dump Frazier. I can't think of a single time the Mets had a player of Frazier's salary on the bench (and don't give me some scenario where the guy was so bad he eventually played less like Jason Bay).
RE: Todd  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 2:13 pm : link
In comment 14083744 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Frazier is 19th in fWAR at 3b despite only playing 103 games, 7th in defense. When was the last time the Mets had a 9 million dollar bench player? When would he play with a RH 1b/3b? Never.


So under this logic they can't go after Machado either?

RE: RE: RE: Frazier could  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:13 pm : link
In comment 14083746 Beezer said:
Quote:
In comment 14083733 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 14083719 Metnut said:


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easily be benched. He's not making much money and was a utility type on the Yankees. Solid player but he's not some type of allstar or core player that you have to absolutely find every day ABs for.

You could even start Frazier at first (while they play service time games with Alsonso) out of camp.



You honestly see a scenario where the Mets are benching Frazier for Alonso and Donaldson? It's not happening. Trust me. Frazier is seen as the clubhouse leader and is going to end up posting a 2.0+ fWAR season despite missing a bunch of time. There is absolutely no way that happens. None. Going into 2019 Frazier will go into the year as one of their top 3-4 position players.

Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil.. and? Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening. So Alonso would be buried in this scenario no questions asked.



Dan, not sure what you mean by "Hopeful on Rosario but this just isn't happening." Can you clarify? Thanks.


I'm hopeful Rosario is better than Todd Frazier in 2019, but benching Frazier just isn't happening so on paper Frazier is one of the top 3-4 best position players on the team headed into 2019. Rosario could be better than him next year but he surely wasn't this year so Frazier "is better".
RE: RE: Todd  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:14 pm : link
In comment 14083749 Metnut said:
Quote:
In comment 14083744 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Frazier is 19th in fWAR at 3b despite only playing 103 games, 7th in defense. When was the last time the Mets had a 9 million dollar bench player? When would he play with a RH 1b/3b? Never.



So under this logic they can't go after Machado either?


Machado would = them dumping Frazier. Likely for a similar salaried player (reliever, SP, OF etc). If they signed Machado, Frazier would either be the starting 1b or not on the team.
They already have one $9M bench player in Lagares  
debo_GIANTS : 9/18/2018 2:16 pm : link
Hard to see them carrying two.
If they want to upgrade at  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 2:16 pm : link
3B, then deal Frazier for bullpen help.

Any slip in Frazier's defense will make him a player with little value. His OBP was .305 this year and that's driven by a major decrease in walk rate. I'm not bullish on him in 2019 given the major warning signs around this player.
If they can't find a taker for Bruce he's another expensive part timer  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 2:17 pm : link
I doubt they trot him out every day in RF or block 1B.
RE: They already have one $9M bench player in Lagares  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:18 pm : link
In comment 14083759 debo_GIANTS said:
Quote:
Hard to see them carrying two.


Lagares was also the "co" starting CF to open the season. People were talking up his launch angle etc. He started the 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 9th games of the season. Conforto's shoulder was an issue and Nimmo was yet to break out. No such scenario with Frazier.
RE: If they can't find a taker for Bruce he's another expensive part timer  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:19 pm : link
In comment 14083763 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
I doubt they trot him out every day in RF or block 1B.


Sadly, Bruce is going to play.
RE: RE: If they can't find a taker for Bruce he's another expensive part timer  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 2:21 pm : link
In comment 14083767 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14083763 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


I doubt they trot him out every day in RF or block 1B.



Sadly, Bruce is going to play.


Or get traded for a similar salary at another position. That has to be one of the top priorities if u can get anything in the slightest bit useful for him.
Rosario is going  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 2:21 pm : link
to finish just under 2 fWAR during his age 22 season. This is largely driven by a stronger second half. He's coming back next year and is going to play every day.
Where  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:24 pm : link
did I suggest anything of the sort regarding Rosario? I said I'm hopeful regarding Rosario being better than Frazier in 2019. Benching Frazier isn't happening. Why would Frazier impact Rosario's playing time? The Rosario reference is in regarding to players headed into 2019. By fWAR it's Nimmo, Confort, McNeil.. Frazier. Just stating the facts. The only scenario (and it's not happening) where Rosario isn't the SS is if the Mets signed MM and he insisted on playing SS.
Dom  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:28 pm : link
in LF for winterball what a waste of time.
I think we need more than 2-2.5 WAR  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 2:30 pm : link
from our 3B slot if we're going to contend next year. Rosario probably projects for the same, maybe Mcneil too, and who knows at 1B and C. We have to upgrade somewhere and most of the other guys in the IF are cost controled and likely not going anywhere.

If Frazier is still valuable (which I doubt given the cold market for him last offseason and his time injured this year) then the Mets could deal him for another asset after a 3B upgrade. Even if I'm wrong about benching him, it doesn't matter, because then just do a trade instead.
I think we are all to some degree overcomplicating this offseason  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 2:31 pm : link
they aren't going to be able to solve everything. It's highly unlikely there will be a way to magically align the roster with what's available from other teams to solve everything cleanly like a rubiks cube. IMO they just need to start by committing to the key young players then trying to add the best players they can around them and then work outward from there - being willing to eat salary from veterans if necessary because finding playing time for guys like Bruce/Frazier/Lagares can't be the priority.

Step 1- Commit to Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario, Mcneil every day and give them as much playing time certainty as possible.

Step 2- Find the best 1 or 2 players you can to add around them. Machado? pinch me. Grandal? great. Pollock? Ok depending on price.

Step 3- Make use of remaining vets best you can. If a new player upgrades CF or 3B but blocks Bruce or Frazier, oh well. Trade them or suck it up and be happy to have the extra depth.
RE: I think we are all to some degree overcomplicating this offseason  
Metnut : 9/18/2018 2:35 pm : link
In comment 14083799 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
they aren't going to be able to solve everything. It's highly unlikely there will be a way to magically align the roster with what's available from other teams to solve everything cleanly like a rubiks cube. IMO they just need to start by committing to the key young players then trying to add the best players they can around them and then work outward from there - being willing to eat salary from veterans if necessary because finding playing time for guys like Bruce/Frazier/Lagares can't be the priority.

Step 1- Commit to Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario, Mcneil every day and give them as much playing time certainty as possible.

Step 2- Find the best 1 or 2 players you can to add around them. Machado? pinch me. Grandal? great. Pollock? Ok depending on price.

Step 3- Make use of remaining vets best you can. If a new player upgrades CF or 3B but blocks Bruce or Frazier, oh well. Trade them or suck it up and be happy to have the extra depth.


I agree with just about this entire post. +1

biggest thing new GM needs to do is reverse the decision pyramid  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 2:35 pm : link
so many of this organizations problems over the years have resulted in starting their plans from step 3 and working their way up instead of vice versa. What veterans do we have to play bc they are expensive and nobody else wants them at the expense of blocking/moving young players or pursuing better FA? Typical Mets would pencil in Bruce at 1B and not go after an every day OF'er knowing Cespedes is still under contract for 2 more seasons.
This isn't football  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 2:40 pm : link
of course they can solve everything in one season to make this team into a contender.

I outlined it before (of course it's just my opinion).

But fix the bullpen, and you can literally just throw money at it and fix it. That's how bullpens work in MLB.

Add s starting pitcher, not a long-term deal, but a proven veteran who isn't a dumpster dive where you overpay like Vargas again I named a few, Morton, Keuchel, or others.

And work on trading the fat like Bruce, Flores, Lagares, Swarzak,

and for me, I'd trade Alonso.

I know his prodigious power will have some people not want to do this and I wouldn't give him away, but I think his value could be the highest it will be right now and get back a veteran, solid fielding, non-black hole at the plate 1B.

If he's going to have fielding issues, all the bat in the world isn't what the Mets need, I cited the Giants teams - 3 WS wins in 5 years and not one player hit over 28 home runs. They didn't have more than 2 player OPS over .800 on any of those teams.

If the Mets can contend with those additions at the deadline you deal a prospect for an OFer to push Bruce to the bench.

FG's  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 2:42 pm : link
final rankings

Gimenez #30 (#7 SS)
Alonso #67 (#2.5 1b... McKay is listed as a 2 way player, Collins #1 pure 1b)
Kelenic #85 (#14 CF)
Mauricio #92 (#12 SS)
Peterson #125 (#48 P, 14th among lefties)

Dunn (unranked)
Vientos (unranked)
RE: This isn't football  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 2:49 pm : link
In comment 14083824 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
of course they can solve everything in one season to make this team into a contender.

I outlined it before (of course it's just my opinion).

But fix the bullpen, and you can literally just throw money at it and fix it. That's how bullpens work in MLB.

Add s starting pitcher, not a long-term deal, but a proven veteran who isn't a dumpster dive where you overpay like Vargas again I named a few, Morton, Keuchel, or others.

And work on trading the fat like Bruce, Flores, Lagares, Swarzak,

and for me, I'd trade Alonso.

I know his prodigious power will have some people not want to do this and I wouldn't give him away, but I think his value could be the highest it will be right now and get back a veteran, solid fielding, non-black hole at the plate 1B.

If he's going to have fielding issues, all the bat in the world isn't what the Mets need, I cited the Giants teams - 3 WS wins in 5 years and not one player hit over 28 home runs. They didn't have more than 2 player OPS over .800 on any of those teams.

If the Mets can contend with those additions at the deadline you deal a prospect for an OFer to push Bruce to the bench.


Yes if they throw infinite money at the team they can fill all of the holes and be a contender but that would potentially mean swallowing money already committed to veterans in favor of better new players. That's what I meant in saying the pieces may not fit together perfectly, if the best upgrade available is in the OF they may need to do it even though Bruce and Cespedes are under contract for 2 more years. They've have rarely spent that way in the past but that's a different discussion.
Completely disagree on Flores  
Vanzetti : 9/18/2018 2:53 pm : link
He is such an obvious breakout candidate. Of course, this regime already got rid of Turner and Murphy right before they broke out, so why not go for the trifecta with Wilmer?

Plus, we heard the same stuff about Wheeler this year. How stupid would it have been if Mets traded Wheeler in July? His value has at least doubled since then. You never trade a prospect who shows signs until you have to. You definitely don't trade someone to give extra ABs to the likes of Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce. That's ludicrous.

The way you stay a losing organization is trying to correct one mistake by making another. Frazier and Bruce were not good signings. Own up to the mistake and wait out their contracts.

Don't engage in the fantasy that if Bruce and Frazier get "showcased" with extra ABs, they will somehow become tradeable. Ain't happening.


Good organizations admit they made a mistake. They don't commit further mistakes by trying to rectify their earlier ones. That's how you wind up with Mel Rojas and Mo Vaughn.
Vanzetti  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 3:01 pm : link
not looking to get into a huge Wilmer debate but the numbers simply do not back this up.

2017 wRC+ 107
2018 wRC+ 103

2017 .331 wOBA
2018 .317 wOBA

At 5 million or so bucks that's an expensive player when you are already paying Cespedes and Wright significant money NOT to play, awful Vargas, Bruce, Lagares..
I think people focus too much on what we dont  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 3:04 pm : link
have and too little on what we do. No, we aren’t going to have he perfect roster in one offseason.. No we will never have gold glovers scattered around at every position. But who has three young aces on their team? Who has a young hitter battling Yelich for best wRC+ in the league this season to go with it? The truth is the reason our season went down the drain was because we couldn’t hit in May and June. Our starting pitching is the best in the league even with Vargas and a slew of other issues there this year. Get a top hitter to team with Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil, Rosario, and eventually Alonso. Get an elite closer. That’s it.

The rest is downsledding and you can adjust and tweak the roster accordingly even mid 2019 if need be.
For  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 3:06 pm : link
context TJ Rivera has a 109 wRC+, .333 wOBA during his time with the big club and will make roughly 4.5 million less. If they can derive value from Wilmer at a spot they need help (bullpen, rotation, OF depth, C, farm system) it makes a lot of sense to do so especially considering the #2 prospect in the system is a RH 1b (taking away from Wilmer) and the #2 prospect is a SS/2B (also taking away from Wilmer).
The  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 3:10 pm : link
last part should obviously read #1 prospect. With McNeil, Frazier, Rosario, Dom, Bruce all on the big club and Gimenez/Alonso "close" Wilmer's PT will not be enough for him to be worth 5 million and that's assuming Rivera/Cecchini don't help and lost seasons aside I don't know that it's a fact.
For my plan  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 3:11 pm : link
they don't even need infinite money.

I'd love a Machado or Harper 1st, that should go without saying but short of that.

No one is talking about it, but I think Kershaw can even opt out, if he does (unlikely from what I read), holy shit, I'd be all over him even in his diminished state. Not a 7 year 9 figure deal, but a 3 year 8 figure deal absolutely.

Sign two elite bullpen pieces.

Kimbrel: 5 years $75M
Familia: 3 years $30M

Add those two to Gsellman, Lugo, add a LOOGY and fill in with the reclamation projects and the bullpen is a long way toward fixed.

Starting pitcher:

Dream scenario, Kershaw opts out. 3 years $90M

Realistic case:
Keuchel, Corbin, Morton: figure 2019 Salary of $20M.

So I added:

Corbin
Kimbrel
Familia
for $ 50M on the 2019 payroll

That has the Mets payroll with arbitration at $170M

of course they'll need other additions, but this is before dealing anyone like Flores, Lagares, or anyone else.

And knowing that Frazier comes off the books after the season and then Bruce and Cespedes the following year to allow for (optionally) Wheeler and deGrom extensions.

Kimbrel and Machado...  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 3:23 pm : link
Nimmo CF
McNeil 2B
Machado 3B
Conforto RF
Alonso 1B
Bruce RF
Rosario SS
Plawecki C

Maybe Cespedes joins you for the postseason.

Wheeler
DeGrom
Thor
Matz
Vargas

Kimbrel
Swarzak
Drew Smith
Gsellman
Lugo
Zamora
Mejia
Hanhold

(Look for a potential setup target in season or a bad contract swap prior.)
RE: Vanzetti  
Vanzetti : 9/18/2018 4:12 pm : link
In comment 14083867 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
not looking to get into a huge Wilmer debate but the numbers simply do not back this up.

2017 wRC+ 107
2018 wRC+ 103

2017 .331 wOBA
2018 .317 wOBA

At 5 million or so bucks that's an expensive player when you are already paying Cespedes and Wright significant money NOT to play, awful Vargas, Bruce, Lagares..


But that's the whole point about a breakout candidate: they turn a corner and hit way above their career numbers, usually by increasing their power numbers.

Now, if Wilmer were a free agent this year and we were talking about signing him to a multi-year deal, I would agree that you let him go. But one year at 6 million? It's foolish not to give a guy who is only 27 and has learned to hit righties this year, one extra year. Especially if the reason you are moving him is to give extra ABs to Bruce and Frazier, two declining vets in their 30s. Like I said, that's making another mistake in order to justify previous bad signings.
lol  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 4:19 pm : link
Nationals land in Fresno lol Good.
Went  
DanMetroMan : 9/18/2018 4:26 pm : link
back and looked at my plan from 7/4/2018 and nothing embarrassing for once

"Reyes should be released.

-McNeil should be with the big club. He's had an incredible season and both the team and fans deserve something positive added

-Blevins, Cabrera, Frazier, Familia, Mesoraco should all be traded
negotiate the most you can get for these guys and move on.

-Aggressively shop DeGrom and Thor.... for ABSURD packages. That doesn't mean you deal them. It means YOU do the groundwork, YOU shoot for the stars. The Padres in particularly could put together a franchise altering package. White Sox (also rumored to be interested) also have that capability. Fernando Tatis Jr. (for example) could be a superstar on the level of Reyes or Wright as soon as next season

- Aggressively shop Matz and Wheeler. Again, same thought process. Very weak SP market... don't just assume you can't land xyz. Just ask.

- Be open to dealing Wilmer despite him being a fan favorite. Wilmer is a solid player but if someone wants to give you a nice cost controlled young player or 2 with 6 years of control he's easily replaceable.

-Be open to moving on from Callaway. I'm not losing my mind over a manager but he seems over his head. If the Mets really do go outside the organization for a GM (I very much doubt this happens) they MUST allow this new guy to have the power to can Mickey. Anyone brought in who has the manager forced upon him =balls already in the Wilpon vice.

- Call the Yankees and ask to speak to Oppenheimer. They may yet say no but Cashman actually is very close with Omar and knows Ricco well. It's not out of the question that they allow a long time employee leave for a major job as a personal courtesy."
RE: For my plan  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 4:42 pm : link
In comment 14083886 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
they don't even need infinite money.

I'd love a Machado or Harper 1st, that should go without saying but short of that.

No one is talking about it, but I think Kershaw can even opt out, if he does (unlikely from what I read), holy shit, I'd be all over him even in his diminished state. Not a 7 year 9 figure deal, but a 3 year 8 figure deal absolutely.

Sign two elite bullpen pieces.

Kimbrel: 5 years $75M
Familia: 3 years $30M

Add those two to Gsellman, Lugo, add a LOOGY and fill in with the reclamation projects and the bullpen is a long way toward fixed.

Starting pitcher:

Dream scenario, Kershaw opts out. 3 years $90M

Realistic case:
Keuchel, Corbin, Morton: figure 2019 Salary of $20M.

So I added:

Corbin
Kimbrel
Familia
for $ 50M on the 2019 payroll

That has the Mets payroll with arbitration at $170M

of course they'll need other additions, but this is before dealing anyone like Flores, Lagares, or anyone else.

And knowing that Frazier comes off the books after the season and then Bruce and Cespedes the following year to allow for (optionally) Wheeler and deGrom extensions.


If they do all that I'd be ecstatic, but that's a yankee offseason not a mets offseason. Fred generally just complains about the Yankees. He rarely acts like them. I'd just honestly be enormously shocked to land 1 of Kimbrel/Kershaw/Machado/Harper let alone multiple. I hope I'm wrong but if I had to bet on it I'd say they don't get any of those guys.

The best I can envision realistically would probably be:
- Andrew Miller (down year for him so there are other better relievers available, plus Callaway connection)
- Familia (said he liked it here, I still think he's a good closer)
- Grandal (he's not perfect but he'd be a big upgrade at a huge hole of a position)

Then 1 trade for someone exciting/unexpected - most likely it's a CF or 3B. Perhaps Alonso is trade bait. Or Dunn. Or Matz. Or Wheeler. Or if nobody is on the trade market better than Pollock I could see them signing him if he's hanging around in January. And possibly signing a SP if they've traded a SP.
a Yankees  
pjcas18 : 9/18/2018 4:45 pm : link
off-season would be signing both Harper and Machado and then adding a closer (if they needed those players/positions)

My father (a diehard Yankees fan) told me many times during the 2008-2009 off-season the Yankees would sign all of Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett. I said no way. Sure as shit, Yankees signed them all.

RE: a Yankees  
Eric on Li : 9/18/2018 5:00 pm : link
In comment 14084094 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
off-season would be signing both Harper and Machado and then adding a closer (if they needed those players/positions)

My father (a diehard Yankees fan) told me many times during the 2008-2009 off-season the Yankees would sign all of Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett. I said no way. Sure as shit, Yankees signed them all.


If the Yankees were in the position we're in, they would sign Kimbrel, Miller, Machado, Grandal. I 100% believe that.
Holy squeeze job on Matz this inning.  
PhiPsi125 : 9/18/2018 7:36 pm : link
Something tells me that Nola gets all those close ones called as strikes. Yikes, that was bad.
RE: a Yankees  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 8:49 pm : link
In comment 14084094 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
off-season would be signing both Harper and Machado and then adding a closer (if they needed those players/positions)

My father (a diehard Yankees fan) told me many times during the 2008-2009 off-season the Yankees would sign all of Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett. I said no way. Sure as shit, Yankees signed them all.


Those days are gone. The Yankees want to stay under the luxury tax now just like everyone else. The Yankees have needed a legit number two starter for a looooong time now but instead of going after the Arrietta's and Darvish's this past offseason they settled for retreads like Sabathia on one year deals. Sure, they've spent more than us but I dont believe this is accurate any longer.
Great defensive play by the Matz coming on the same night  
Ira : 9/18/2018 9:02 pm : link
as his home run.
Ok so this is pretty funny...  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 9:15 pm : link

Josh Chapdelaine
@JoshChapdelaine
Giancarlo Stanton: 3.4 bWAR
Brandon Nimmo: 4.1 bWAR
Anthony DiComo
✔
@AnthonyDiComo
Sandy Alderson, tongue in cheek, on why the Mets did not pursue Giancarlo Stanton: "With Brandon Nimmo in right field, we just didn't feel that we had a need there."
Nice job by Blevins and D Smith tonight...  
ZGiants98 : 9/18/2018 9:38 pm : link
Yikes. Both had been pitching well lately.
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