last night the Mets were officially mathematically eliminated from the post-season, though non-mathematically they were realistically out of it before the AS break.
Normally this day would be sort of melancholy, but I actually feel pretty good about the future.
Love the 2nd half from a lot of guys, and feel like there were a few surprises in the minors, enough to provide some hope.
I think this off-season and the GM decision are crucial, so I have hope.
And like Andy says to Red says in his letter in Shawshank Redemption:
| Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. |
We need a big bat in the middle of the line-up, and to strengthen the bullpen.
Last part of your statement comes down to dealing with the Wilpons. Is a top notch smart kid like Chaim Bloom really eager to work with Jeff? I suspect they hire a retread who just wants to get paid/last shot at being GM. Gary LaRocque is the clear favorite in the clubhouse in my view.
Link - ( New Window )
I'll play the contrarian and focus on the positives.
Proving themselves as good starters at the ML level are McNeil, Nimmo, Rosario, Conforto. The rotation 1-3 is tops in the league. The lower levels of the minors look really, REALLY good. So there are some solid foundation pieces already here, with several more to follow Two of which are very close to the majors (Alonso and Gimenez).
Biggest thing this team is missing. Biggest need for this team is it literally and figuratively needs to swing for the fences and NOT MISS. A Carter move. A Piazza move. They absolutely cannot afford to miss. Whether it's this offseason, next season, free agent, trade, internal promotion. They need a keystone, and cannot afford to be wrong...
Lol, well said Dan. Well said.
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much as I like Conforto this team needs a legit middle of the order stud (easier said than done). I like Alonso but I don't believe he is that. I think Alonso will be similar to Lucas Duda. A nice above average regular but not "the guy" and I don't think "the guy" exists. From Piazza, to Wright to Yo. Currently "he" isn't here.
Lol, well said Dan. Well said.
It's obviously hard to find but the best teams all have hitters that scare the opposing team. That can carry a lineup. Guys like Nimmo and Conforto have had nice seasons but they are in the tier 2 "complimentary good" players. Teams like the Indians or Red Sox or Yankees or Astros... you catch my drift. I don't know where they find this guy (FA wise Machado and Harper are the only thing even remotely close in this class) but soon enough they will need to find that.
1. bullpen (I said this last year and some people scoffed, you have to have stacked talent in the bullpen).
2. defense (this is harder to "fix" but IMO don't put Bruce at 1B because they signed him and need a spot for him, start a guy at 1B who is legit.
I don't think they need a traditional middle of the order bat, the Giants teams (2010) didn't have one, unless you count Posey or Aubrey Huff. 2012 was even worse with only one player who OPSd over .800 (Posey) and Melky but he didn't play all season. 2014 two guys OPS over .800 (Posey and Mike Morse).
The Mets teams remind me a little of those Giants teams, 3 WS in 5 years without a guy who hit 30 HR's.
Plus, I think bullpen and defense may be easier to fix than a middle of the order bat.
If the Mets can add a Machado or Harper I do it, but I don't think a middle of the order bat is the easiest way to get the Mets to contend.
1. Fix the bullpen
2. Fix the D
3. Strengthen the rotation (whether it's Morton or Keuchel or whoever, it strengthens a strength and protects against injury)
but as mentioned the biggest decision is whose driving the bus.
I think they have to trade Alsono, capitalize on his great season and deal him while his value is high.
The Mets need a Keith Hernandez type more than a huge, one-dimensional power guy at 1b.
Oh, I know it's not stacked, I'm saying it has to be.
this is where the bulk of my off-season budget would go. I'd even consider Kimbrel and Familia.
Go out and make some noise. Sign Harper. Sign Machado. Call it $60mm added to payroll. So at $175mm, made an insane amount of "noise", ticket sales through the roof, excitement, even the most pessimistic Mets fan (that's a hell of title to win lol) would be happy. THEN FIGURE OUT THE REST from there.
Flip Bruce for an overpaid RP or SP. Bruce for Melancon.
Flip Frazier for an overpaid RP, an Addison Reed type.
Flip Lagares for a live body?
Got WAY younger, WAY better offensively, filled some BP gaps. SP is still very good.
Lineup: Nimmo, Machado, Harper, Alonso, Conforto, Rosario, McNeil, Plawecki. An offense with power. Not the slowest team in the league. Guys who get on base. Balanced Lefty/righty. A pretty decent bench.
And yeah, if Ces comes back, figure it out. Good problem to have. Ces, fighting for playing time going into a contract year = monster :)
All a fantasy, but
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only is the bullpen not stacked nearly every single guy they acquired last deadline disappointed. Hard to identify a single one of them you can confidently say is a big league RP let alone a good one. Doesn't mean it won't happen but as a group... awful.
Oh, I know it's not stacked, I'm saying it has to be.
this is where the bulk of my off-season budget would go. I'd even consider Kimbrel and Familia.
To be clear I was agreeing with you. The internal options just aren't that great. I assume they will sign Familia or gamble on Ottavino.
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In comment 14083093 DanMetroMan said:
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only is the bullpen not stacked nearly every single guy they acquired last deadline disappointed. Hard to identify a single one of them you can confidently say is a big league RP let alone a good one. Doesn't mean it won't happen but as a group... awful.
Oh, I know it's not stacked, I'm saying it has to be.
this is where the bulk of my off-season budget would go. I'd even consider Kimbrel and Familia.
To be clear I was agreeing with you. The internal options just aren't that great. I assume they will sign Familia or gamble on Ottavino.
They should sign both. They should spend $30M on the bullpen this year or more.
and another $15M on starting pitching.
Yeah, assuming Vargas and Legares are both immovable. So when I say for a live body, I assume its salary neutral. But most likely have to keep both since there isnt much depth at either of those positions. In fantasy land GM world at least.
So $175mm payroll. Done. Ces is full health in 2020, assuming, yeah you have ag lut of OF and Nimmo or Conforto either have to be moved or Nimmo came back down to earth in 2019 and is your 4th OF like you thought anyway. 2020 payroll isnt so bad either with a couple of dead weight contracts coming off the books. And the kids in the minors are now the lower minors kids are ready to be promoted at ML minimum salary...
Enter Nicholas Castellanos from Detroit.
Would Dunn and Smith be enough?
Enter Nicholas Castellanos from Detroit.
Would Dunn and Smith be enough?
Castellanos is a poor defender also. Still that package isn’t close. Smith as little to no value at the moment.
If I were GM I would go the KC Royals / Oakland style team and continue building on Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario, Mcneil with more solid two way players and try to spend my way to a dominant BP. Simplest signings would be a Pollock in CF and Grandal for C. I think Alonso has a higher upside than Duda, but I wouldn't be opposed to dealing him if the right move came along.
Not on top of your fantasy land, instead of it.
baseball is all guaranteed contracts, so lessen the hit in 2019if you need to and backload them on 3 year deals.
The Mets do not have a salary on the books right now for 2021 from what I know.
Vargas and Frazier are off the books after next year. Bruce and Cespy the year after that.
So two years clears everything including Cespedes.
I know people don't want to believe it, but the Mets should be players for Harper and Machado (but we know they won't be).
Roughly yes.
115 actually looks light from here running the numbers. DeGrom made 7.4 and Thor 2.0. So 92.5 + even their 2018 salaries puts them at 102 and both will get significant raises + the other guys. Probably closer to 120ish.
I thought TJ Rivera could play the Wilmer role but the lost season makes him tough to trust. That being said with Frazier, Bruce, Alonso, Smith I don't think Wilmer is even needed at that price.
I'd trade him to an AL team where he can DH vs lefties, play a utility role when needed and maybe get more consistent at -bats or not but at his salary, he's not providing enough value to the Mets as a deep bench guy.
not that it always isn't by choice, but sometimes a team can legitimately use the luxury tax as a reason, or claim they have reached their payroll limit, etc.
the Mets have zero excuse other than it's their choice not to pursue one of the games biggest superstars in their prime.
We really need to sign a stud 3B (or a 2B I guess) if we're going to move Flores IMO.
not that it always isn't by choice, but sometimes a team can legitimately use the luxury tax as a reason, or claim they have reached their payroll limit, etc.
the Mets have zero excuse other than it's their choice not to pursue one of the games biggest superstars in their prime.
+1
Even with the caveat that Bowden generally sucks, it's hard to disagree that most of the above teams would be more appealing to Machado than the Mets right now. On top of the fact that most of the above teams have proven to spend more. So it really seems like it will take an unexpectedly disinterested market like Vlad Guerrero/Carlos Beltran for the Mets to emerge victorious.
Also Machado aside, the only player he lists the Mets as a fit for this offseason is Grandal, which is odd unless he's just counting on them continuing to be a non-player for most top FA.
Bowden: Scouting the Top 20 impending free agents, and finding their best fits ($) - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
Not that anything they do shocks me but that would suggest they full gave up on Alonso