Thought I was about to catch a walk off grand slam but alas.
Of our free agents I’d ideally bring back McCutchen, DRob, Happ and Britton. It’s unlikely they bring back both relievers though. They’ll desperately need to add a starter, but I’m worried Corbin is Sonny 2.0.
I’d not pick up Gardner’s option.
and Altuve, Correa, etc.
What a year that Bregman had, I didn't think he would improve THAT quickly, go 'Stros.
Yankee pitching is a total disaster. Happ was a good acquisition, but I have no idea how to fix the overall problem.
CC is done. Something has happened to Sevy: needs to be figured out and solved -- or replaced as a top pitcher. Britton does not look like a good get and Lynn borders on useless. Cessa and Loaisiga are useless. Sheffield might be, too. Chappy is iffy with his leg problem.
Get rid of the excess HR hitter types and get real hitters: good in the box against great pitching. Go for speed, infield skill, outfielding ability (stong, accurate arms). Get over justly beloved Gardner.
Yankee pitching is a total disaster. Happ was a good acquisition, but I have no idea how to fix the overall problem.
CC is done. Something has happened to Sevy: needs to be figured out and solved -- or replaced as a top pitcher. Britton does not look like a good get and Lynn borders on useless. Cessa and Loaisiga are useless. Sheffield might be, too. Chappy is iffy with his leg problem.
Get rid of the excess HR hitter types and get real hitters: good in the box against great pitching. Go for speed, infield skill, outfielding ability (stong, accurate arms). Get over justly beloved Gardner.
"Get real hitters."
I just have a hard time what people mean by this. This is the table of team hitting stats from the 2018 season:
The Red Sox are the outlier here and their stats at home (with the wall) are heavily inflated (.282). The Yanks are totally middle of the road average wise. This was despite a horrific season from an injury plagued Gary Sanchez and otherwise mediocre production from catcher. We're .05 below the Astros, an excellent offensive team. So, I'm having a hard time understanding what people want. The Sox were carried by two historically great seasons by their best two hitters. One of ours had a down year and the other was injured. The other member (Sanchez) I discussed above. Despite it all, we were an elite offensive team and totally average BA--wise (and this is not even getting at the value of that stat).
Now, we do strike out a ton and that is an issue (Boston and Houston do not). But we also had basically the same number of hits as Houston. Our offense isn't the issue.
3B: wRC+ 106, OPS+ 110
DH: wRC+ 110, OPS+ 112
1B: wRC+ 108, OPS+ 112
Andujar was far above average for the league and for 3B hitting. But it's not like they are getting so much additional value by being able to play him at 3B in the same way as if he were a C/2B/CF. Given how bad his defense is, the Yankees are likely better off putting him at DH if they can go out and get a strong defensive 3B who is decent at the bat.
And given the struggles of the starting staff, the Yankees would be better up shoring up the infield defense they way they did with the outfield.
3B: wRC+ 106, OPS+ 110
DH: wRC+ 110, OPS+ 112
1B: wRC+ 108, OPS+ 112
Andujar was far above average for the league and for 3B hitting. But it's not like they are getting so much additional value by being able to play him at 3B in the same way as if he were a C/2B/CF. Given how bad his defense is, the Yankees are likely better off putting him at DH if they can go out and get a strong defensive 3B who is decent at the bat.
And given the struggles of the starting staff, the Yankees would be better up shoring up the infield defense they way they did with the outfield.
That's the issue, though, right? We've got plenty of guys who've got bats but need DH days.
It's better to link to fangraphs to compare team hitting because of how many more metrics are available to compare.
What make the Astros so great is that they walk a lot, were 11th in HRs, but were also 29th/30 in K%. So they have enough power, but also put the ball in play. It makes a team dangerous against all types of pitchers and situations.
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-the yanks don’t need to move on from Didi (I wouldn’t criticize them for doing it), but I really don’t like having such an OBP-constrained bat in the dead heart of this order.
-I don’t think that moving Stanton to the Dodgers is as far-fetched as some here might make it sound. They have a lot of money rolling off this offseason, with decent chunks more coming off the next two. Doesn’t make it a given or “likely”, but if the yanks feel Harper is the better long-term asset and wants to come, there very well might be a way.
-Hyun-Jin Ryu is a bit of an under-the-radar FA option that I find intriguing. Some injury history with groin injuries, but he’s done some really nice things when healthy. He looks to finally be 100%. (Certainly not suggesting that this is a panacea for the pitching situation)
Stanton to the Dodgers--if possible--is a move we need to think about seriously. We've got a lot more leverage than Miami. We can keep him if we want. That said, if LAD offers some attractive talent, especially young arms, it would be worth exploring a trade.
Word out here id if Dodgers don't win the WS Stanton would be a very desirable target as the Dodgers, like the Yanks, will reset their luxury tax this season.
Yeah people are talking about this team like it's the Giants; maybe that frustration has carried over. This was a damn good team.
2) A 400obp guy missed 9 weeks in front of him and the guys who hit behind him this year were Sanchez and Bird. The years Bird and Sanchez had suppressed his average 10 pts and 10 hrs.
3) he is notoriously a guy of habits, so maybe year two gets a lift.
4) by all accounts a good teammate...that matters with a young team.
if all of the above is true, the year to trade him is not this year for Harper but rather at the deadline or the year after for every good pitcher in their minor league system?
They still won 100 games, got to the ALDS and had a chance to win the series.
That's pretty damned good. And we have some really spoiled, bratty, whiny fans. I've been that way here and there but also realize how lucky we are as Yankees fans.
Anyone on board with the idea that Pedro might've slipped the Sox advice on how to read Severino? Doesn't it feel at least a little funny to allow our most prized pitching asset to be brought under the tutelage of an agent of our enemy?
Flame away!
The need for another SP is clear and will be addressed. And then there's a ton of things we can do with the lineup. Whether it's making a trade, signing a bat, shuffling things around, etc.
This is a really good team that can and will improve. I expect the Yanks to be competitive with this core for a pretty good stretch.
Sometimes the posts I read or the people I hear call into WFAN make it seem like we had an awful year - I'd say expectations were probably exceeded if anything. The future is bright.
Anyone on board with the idea that Pedro might've slipped the Sox advice on how to read Severino? Doesn't it feel at least a little funny to allow our most prized pitching asset to be brought under the tutelage of an agent of our enemy?
Flame away!
Wouldn't surprise me, and wouldn't even be inappropriate. Players and ex-players from different teams train together, but they have all manner of personal relationships. If Mookie called Pedro for tips on hitting Sevy, and if Sevy called Pedro for tips on pitching to Mookie, he'd probably take both calls.
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Tinfoil hats on, everyone! I haven't got remotely one shred of evidence to support this, but it won't stop me from floating the following:
Anyone on board with the idea that Pedro might've slipped the Sox advice on how to read Severino? Doesn't it feel at least a little funny to allow our most prized pitching asset to be brought under the tutelage of an agent of our enemy?
Flame away!
Wouldn't surprise me, and wouldn't even be inappropriate. Players and ex-players from different teams train together, but they have all manner of personal relationships. If Mookie called Pedro for tips on hitting Sevy, and if Sevy called Pedro for tips on pitching to Mookie, he'd probably take both calls.
Pedro's the type of guy who would rather have his fellow countryman be successful than an employer
Totally agree. If they fail to make the WS next year the cute cuddly baby bombers narrative is going to get old after 3 straight post seasons. I think the roster is at a key point right now. They are good, but they are not as good as the Red Sox or Astros right now. Sure anything can happen in a 5 or even 7 game playoff series, but facts are facts those teams are just better right now and it showed this series. The Sox get on base better, work counts better, and field better than we do. We had the better pen, but in 3 of the 4 games they built up a big enough lead where that didn't come into play as much.
Good season, but extremely disappointing ending.
I don't like that. I get that we can expect improvements (roster, health, development of young players), and I get that even without improvements 100 wins ain't so bad. Both true statements.
But I don't like it because they're the NY Yankees. Winning a ton of games in the regular season isn't good enough. This team needs to win championships.
Right now we have two teams in this league alone that have figured out how to improve spin rates and turn decent pitchers into aces. The parts keep changing yet the results stay the same. They've got something going where their pitchers can be lights-out in the postseason. Yes, we can be competitive. Is that what we're shooting for? No, we want to be dominant.
How are we going to consistently beat THOSE teams? The only answer I know of is to get the aces out of the games and attack their bullpens.
I don't see any way around a system-wide focus of hitting that increases pitch count.
Justus Sheffield
Chance Adams
Domingo German
Jonathan Loaisiga
I'm not including Montgomery because I have no idea how long it is going to take to return from TJS.
I thought German did pretty well considering. I think he is close to being a #5 starter at least.
I guess my point is, if any of these youngsters take a step forward like Severino, things could be better sooner than expected. Also, may give Cashman less incentive to spend big in free agency.
I don't like that. I get that we can expect improvements (roster, health, development of young players), and I get that even without improvements 100 wins ain't so bad. Both true statements.
But I don't like it because they're the NY Yankees. Winning a ton of games in the regular season isn't good enough. This team needs to win championships.
Right now we have two teams in this league alone that have figured out how to improve spin rates and turn decent pitchers into aces. The parts keep changing yet the results stay the same. They've got something going where their pitchers can be lights-out in the postseason. Yes, we can be competitive. Is that what we're shooting for? No, we want to be dominant.
How are we going to consistently beat THOSE teams? The only answer I know of is to get the aces out of the games and attack their bullpens.
I don't see any way around a system-wide focus of hitting that increases pitch count.
I agree that the Yankees need to do a better job developing starting pitching.
But in terms of a system-wide focus on increasing pitch count, the Yankees ranked
Pitches/PA: 3rd most
Strike (looking)%: 11th lowest
% Pitches swung at: T-3rd lowest
% swinging at 1st pitch: 9th lowest
The Yankees worked the count
The biggest problem I see is that the Yankees were T-8th wrost in the percentage of strikes that they put into play and T-7th worst contact %
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-pitches-batting.shtml - ( New Window )
The Yankees saw the lowest % of strikes in baseball this year.
% of PAs getting to a 2-0 count
Cle: 15.7
Bos: 15.3
Hou: 15.1
NYY: 15.0
% of PAs getting to a 3-0 count
CLE: 5.6
And yet, they still ended up 12th in strikeout percentage.
NYY: 5.5
WSN: 5.5
HOU: 5.4
CLE: 5.6
NYY: 5.5
WSN: 5.5
HOU: 5.4
And yet, they still ended up 12th in strikeout percentage.
The Red Sox hit .400 with men on base in the series. They lead baseball in situational hitting all year. The Yankees couldn't get the hit they needed in game 1 and they couldn't get the hit they needed in game 4. But they didn't get those hits all year either. Their base loaded hitting was horrible all year and it was horrible in game 1 and game 4.
As Bill James has pointed out over and over the past 10 years the fact there's not a sabr measurement for something doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I hope the Yankees start paying more attention to K prevention in their AB's. It does matter even if it can't be measured.
Bill2 pointed out the players hitting around Stanton as one of the many reasons his first year in NY was good but not great. But if you talk to a lot of sabr people they'll tell you there's no such thing a lineup protection basically because they can't figure out how to measure it.
Anyone who ever pitched a baseball game at the age of 13 or over can tell you first hand you always know who is on deck and it affects how you pitch in a major way.
I think the Yankees need a better blend of analytics and baseball scouting. The Red Sox beat them to analytics and the Yankees scrambled to catch up. Now they've beat them to adjusting away from just 3 outcomes.
I don't like that. I get that we can expect improvements (roster, health, development of young players), and I get that even without improvements 100 wins ain't so bad. Both true statements.
But I don't like it because they're the NY Yankees. Winning a ton of games in the regular season isn't good enough. This team needs to win championships.
Right now we have two teams in this league alone that have figured out how to improve spin rates and turn decent pitchers into aces. The parts keep changing yet the results stay the same. They've got something going where their pitchers can be lights-out in the postseason. Yes, we can be competitive. Is that what we're shooting for? No, we want to be dominant.
How are we going to consistently beat THOSE teams? The only answer I know of is to get the aces out of the games and attack their bullpens.
I don't see any way around a system-wide focus of hitting that increases pitch count.
I think it's a matter of direction.
84 wins in 2016
91 wins in 2017
100 wins in 2018
So, this is what you want to see. Obviously they went further last year when October rolled around, but regardless - I think the team is clearly headed in the right direction with plenty of room for growth. They're just not a finished product yet and can still get better. The needs are pretty clear and can be addressed this winter.
Lineup construction definitely needs to be looked at.
I haven't really dove into numbers on this, but it felt like there were a lot of stretches where we struggled far too much offensively given the talent in the lineup. Basically the type of stuff we saw last night against Porcello where we'd watch a called strike one, then chase something out of the zone and quickly be down 0-2. He got through 4 innings throwing about 10 pitches per inning. It was like we were just falling behind in AB after AB.
The Red Sox were at the top of the majors in average and hits but were far less HR-reliant.
We hit about 60 more HR's than they did this year, yet they scored 25 more runs through the course of the season.
Sometimes it's not even that complicated.
I don't want to get into the whole "HR or bust" argument - I'm not against power hitters, but the type of lineup we have is probably more prone to being streaky and result in nights like last night where we just can't come up with that hit we need.
Boston led the majors in hitting with runners in scoring position while we were closer to league average.
Situational hitting needs to be a major sticking point this offseason and we need to find a way to be better at it.
They’re still learning how to win
2. A lefty bat.
He is perfect fit between Judge and Stanton in the line up. And his OPS and HR numbers will easily rival their's. He can also play a little first base apparently. It's a no-brainer if you ask me. Exactly what they've been saving up for these past two years of getting under the luxury tax ceiling.
Hicks will be back - he's an arb guy. Judge is penciled into RF. I'm thinking the Yanks probably won't pick up Gardy's option.
McCutchen is a guy I'd personally like back for a year if there's a way to make it work. I think ~8M for a year is probably enough.
Frazier is done with the minors. Either he's got to be up here or we need to deal him.
Harper hasn't played LF at all in about 4 years. So, positional fit might be a bit of an issue. He can play some 1B - but Voit certainly played himself into serious consideration for that job full-time heading into next year.
Obviously most of the guys above are not guys you let block you from Bryce Harper. But he will need a spot in the OF every day if we were to acquire him and LF really seems to be the only spot we can open up.
Otherwise, we are a young team and I think it is best to think of us as where the Sox were two or three years ago. We are still building to a peak, but the Sox are already there.
I'm sure they're already looking at it and have been.
But, whether it's tipping pitches or something else, they have to figure out how to get him back to the pitcher he was pre-ASB because that guy was a true ace.
He did have better outings towards the end - he was pretty good vs. OAK in the play-in. But the performance against BOS in game 3 just wasn't what you expect from your best SP and it really killed us in this series.
I think Kershaw is going to opt out of his 2 years but his back and recent injury history make me too nervous.
I'd definitely pursue Corbin and see about bringing Happ back for ~2 years. CC might just decide to walk away at this point. I'd like him in a swingman type of role for one more year, but I don't know if that'll be feasible or not.
Severino
Corbin
Tanaka
Happ
That's a really solid 4 to start with. We can probably fill the last spot internally - give Loaisaga a better look. Maybe Sheffield.
If we want to look outside the org, Jeremy Hellickson might be a cheap option to slot in at the back end. He had a pretty solid year for WSH when he was healthy. He only threw 91 innings this year, but for a 5th starter or depth we could do worse.
Hicks will be back - he's an arb guy. Judge is penciled into RF. I'm thinking the Yanks probably won't pick up Gardy's option.
McCutchen is a guy I'd personally like back for a year if there's a way to make it work. I think ~8M for a year is probably enough.
Frazier is done with the minors. Either he's got to be up here or we need to deal him.
Harper hasn't played LF at all in about 4 years. So, positional fit might be a bit of an issue. He can play some 1B - but Voit certainly played himself into serious consideration for that job full-time heading into next year.
Obviously most of the guys above are not guys you let block you from Bryce Harper. But he will need a spot in the OF every day if we were to acquire him and LF really seems to be the only spot we can open up.
He wasn't all trash. He had a good 2013 before he got hurt. He pitched well in an abbreviated 2015 then had a bad 2016 and a "meh" 2017.
Corbin is still 28. It's possible he's just figuring things out and getting on track now. I'm sure the NYY brass will have a good feel for whether 2018 was an outlier or a sign of things to come - but with a 2.47 FIP, I'm inclined to think it wasn't fluky.
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Problem is, where does Harper play? LF?
Hicks will be back - he's an arb guy. Judge is penciled into RF. I'm thinking the Yanks probably won't pick up Gardy's option.
McCutchen is a guy I'd personally like back for a year if there's a way to make it work. I think ~8M for a year is probably enough.
Frazier is done with the minors. Either he's got to be up here or we need to deal him.
Harper hasn't played LF at all in about 4 years. So, positional fit might be a bit of an issue. He can play some 1B - but Voit certainly played himself into serious consideration for that job full-time heading into next year.
Obviously most of the guys above are not guys you let block you from Bryce Harper. But he will need a spot in the OF every day if we were to acquire him and LF really seems to be the only spot we can open up.
Voit May end up being the answer at 1B, but he needs to prove it all over again through the spring and early next year. I wouldn’t blame cashman for signing a stop gap 1B this offseason and see where the pieces fit
I definitely think he'll need to re-establish himself next spring and prove that his run here wasn't smoke and mirrors.
I think some regression is just to be expected - the guy would be one of the best players in all of baseball if you extrapolated his sample size into a 162-game season.
But, he was so good that he'd have to be the front-runner for the job as it stands now.
Bird will also be in the mix - I'm guessing the Yanks won't give up on him entirely just yet, but obviously I have my doubts about him and I'm sure most of us do.
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.. makes me exceedingly nervous. I would almost rather take a shot on Kershaw. I admit I have not watched Corbin pitched, so I don't know why he suddenly spiked in 2018. His H/9, k/9 and whip are sexy as hell. But why suddenly this transformation into a dominator? If the Yanks determine it is for real, then sure... go for it. But this guy was trash before this season. If we pay top dollar and get the old Corbin it will be a disaster.
He wasn't all trash. He had a good 2013 before he got hurt. He pitched well in an abbreviated 2015 then had a bad 2016 and a "meh" 2017.
Corbin is still 28. It's possible he's just figuring things out and getting on track now. I'm sure the NYY brass will have a good feel for whether 2018 was an outlier or a sign of things to come - but with a 2.47 FIP, I'm inclined to think it wasn't fluky.
sorry I don't share your view of 2013. His h/9 was ok, not near the elite levels of this year. And his k/9 were not very good. If we paid ace dollars and got that performance the Yanks would be screwed. It is like paying for Sale and getting Rick Porcello. The only year worth ace money was 2018. Anything else and you are getting a borderline third starter. And I do not trust the Yankee brass that much since they thought getting Sonny Gray was a great idea. Gray was never going to be anything more than a number 3 or 4 for us. Of course he turned out a lot worse than that. But they thought adding him would solve our pitching woes. For some reason the Red Sox always get the best SP - they got Pedro, they got Sale... for once, I want us to get Pedro.
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.. makes me exceedingly nervous. I would almost rather take a shot on Kershaw. I admit I have not watched Corbin pitched, so I don't know why he suddenly spiked in 2018. His H/9, k/9 and whip are sexy as hell. But why suddenly this transformation into a dominator? If the Yanks determine it is for real, then sure... go for it. But this guy was trash before this season. If we pay top dollar and get the old Corbin it will be a disaster.
He wasn't all trash. He had a good 2013 before he got hurt. He pitched well in an abbreviated 2015 then had a bad 2016 and a "meh" 2017.
Corbin is still 28. It's possible he's just figuring things out and getting on track now. I'm sure the NYY brass will have a good feel for whether 2018 was an outlier or a sign of things to come - but with a 2.47 FIP, I'm inclined to think it wasn't fluky.
at least with Kershaw you are getting a pitcher with an established level of one of the greatest of all time. Not that I think the Dodgers are letting him get away.