I do not fault the Giants or Shurmur for scoring a TD as soon as possible on Sunday. I always thought the rule of thumb was when you have to get a TD you get it when the opportunity presents itself and you do not play games with the clock. However, I am starting to rethink this proposition given how strong these kickers legs are and how short they have to go to get that FG. Basically, off a Touchback the team needs to go thirty yards to get a shot at a fg and only about 40 yards to get a real good chance at it. In today's NFL, that just seems like a very doable task with less than a minute to go. As for Sunday, since we did not have any timeouts left, it probably would not have worked for us to play games with the clock (as so much could have went wrong and you don't want to burn a down by spiking the ball), so this is in no way a criticism of Shurmur or the Giants, but if we have a timeout or two in our pocket (in case they don't use theres), do you go against the grain now and try to milk clock some before you score? I would always have though the answer is no and there are plenty of reasons to say so. Just look how Philly has won so many games with their opponents not scoring on four downs inside the ten (against us last year at home, the falcons twice, the colts etc). I still think I lean toward scoring at first chance, but was wondering what other people think?
I am not really talking about Sunday, just using Sunday as a impetus to think about it. And, if you want to use Sunday, what if Barkley instead of jumping just kneeled down at the 1? THen we have four downs with a minute to go.
Our defense should have been able to hold them. Fail...
Our defense should have been able to hold them. Fail...
Given we just did that and lost, it's sort of like booking a trip on the Challenger knowing it will explode.
I get that, but nobody would not kick the fg because it could get blocked, a bad snap, etc. There is risk involved with everything, the question is what risk is acceptable and what puts your team in the best position to win. I always have been in the score now category, but this whole kickers kicking 60+ yard fgs and touchbacks to the 25 have really gotten me rethinking that. Moreover, if you do kickoff you have to play real defense and not give up yards. If they break one, they break one, but just letting them eat you up yards is a recipe for disaster.
Our defense should have been able to hold them. Fail...
Actually, the defense did hold them. Stopping a team at the 45 works for me every time. A 63 yarder was absurd. He’ll never do that again
I can only imagine what might have happened if Barkley had purposely run out of bounds (what is he DOING??!!!) or had slid at the 6 (you've got to SCORE THERRE!!!!) and then the Giants DON'T score?
Oh my.
Ohhhh dear.
lol
I can only imagine what might have happened if Barkley had purposely run out of bounds (what is he DOING??!!!) or had slid at the 6 (you've got to SCORE THERRE!!!!) and then the Giants DON'T score?
Oh my.
Ohhhh dear.
lol
It would almost be worth it for that to happen later this season to see the ensuing hysteria here.
I was NOT a fan of Barkley going for the TD on that run. I'd rather he fall short of the goal-line and give the offense 4 chances to get into the endzone.
The Giants have absolutely no pass rush. I had little faith the D would get the stop needed.
The argument is strictly to use all the playclock. There was 17 second on the playclock when the ball was snapped. That's another 15 seconds that could have come off the clock without effecting the playcalls.
I watched that play again (actually the whole game), and I still strongly disagree with this take. Manning in my opinion knew exactly where he wanted to go with the ball before and after the snap. The Panthers had a down lineman assigned to Barkley. In fact the Panthers showed A gap pressure which brought two linebackers up and away from Barkley.
Except it doesn't make sense. Again, the argument shouldn't be to kneel down or for SB to run out of bounds. As a QB, you need to play the clock as well. The issue was Eli snapping the ball with 17 seconds left. That's the issue.
What is the likely-hood of a team scoring a late-game TD from the 15 in 3 downs versus 4? (If the Giants had run the ball the first time to take time off the clock they'd still have 3 downs to get the 1st down or TD.)
What is the likely-hood of a team getting a FG with 68 seconds and one timeout versus, say 65 seconds left and no timeouts or 40 seconds left and 1 TO.
If there is a high probability (more than 60%) that most teams would be able to get a FG with 68 seconds and one timeout, and the Giants' chances of getting a TD in 3 downs versus 4 would not have decreased substantially, then the Giants should have milked the clock.
And for those saying that since it took a 63 yd. FG to beat them it proves the Giants made the right move... who's to say beforehand that Carolina would have only been able to move the ball 30 yards when they had 68 seconds and one timeout? With that kind of time they could potentially have gotten 10-15 more yards making the FG more manageable.
Our defense should have been able to hold them. Fail...
Totally agree. Brings back memories of SB46 and Bradshaw.
100% correct.
Of course the safe decision by a HC is to do exactly what Shurmur did, because no one would fault him even if he lost. But was it the right move?
Again, I'd love to see what the numbers say regarding probability of success in those scenarios.
6th in the NFL in points scored
30th in points given up.
People crushed him for his management decisions weekly, but the reality was, he was damned if he did, damned if he didn't. 6 games where we tied or took the lead with under 2 minutes, only to lose.
Of course the safe decision by a HC is to do exactly what Shurmur did, because no one would fault him even if he lost. But was it the right move?
Again, I'd love to see what the numbers say regarding probability of success in those scenarios.
The Giants are at like 50% for getting a TD in the RZ. Start with that. Add in no timeouts, the possibility of being tackled inbound, penalties and ensuing runoffs, getting a first down and needing to run more plays. Those factors probably put a TD there at less than 50%.
I'd be curious to see the stats of TDs occurring from 1 and 10 from the 15 at 60 seconds vs 2 and 7 from the 12 at 40 seconds.
Again, they went ahead and tried to score ASAP - did - and they lost the game.
Every game is different - if they defense had been playing well, and we were getting pressure on the QB, time isn't as much as a concern. Doesn't mean they will hold, but it changes the thought process on how best to WIN THE GAME.
It would be interesting to see them tackle this issue.
But with the Giants, I imagine the data would show that they should take a TD any time they can get it.
And let's not forget that this year's Giants team has been at best mediocre at scoring touchdowns from the red zone.
Plus Carolina is not some juggernaut offense that we all knew would march down the field and win it. The guy made the 2nd longest FG in NFL history and 7 yards longer than his career long.
Tough way to lose but I cannot fault the Giants on how they managed that last drive.
Plus Carolina is not some juggernaut offense that we all knew would march down the field and win it. The guy made the 2nd longest FG in NFL history and 7 yards longer than his career long.
Tough way to lose but I cannot fault the Giants on how they managed that last drive.
1. No one suggested the Giants needed to run the clock down to 1 second...just that maybe they should have run the ball once to take SOME time off the clock.
2. Posters keep acting like 30 yards is the most a team can possibly gain with 1:08 with one timeout. Many teams could have gained 10-15 yards more making for a much more manageable FG.
3. What is the Giants' success rate in stopping a team at the end of a game when all the other team needs is a FG? My memory suggests that their probability of success is not very good.
All things considered, I would have liked to have seen the Giants run the ball on 1st down to take some time off the clock (or have Carolina burn their last TO) and then try to score a TD on their remaining 3 downs...so that Carolina didn't have enough time to come back.
Posters can disagree with that, but who reading this thread didn't look up at the clock after the Giants scored and think to themselves... 1:08 and one TO left... we're f**ked!
I dont know the answer to this particular scenario but it is worth considering. It's been coming for a long time - it's easy to move the ball at the end of games and kickers are good. Circumstances have changed and strategies must adapt.
In basketball people are very comfortable with the idea of holding for the last shot, even when the team is losing. Holding for the last shot hurts your chances of scoring, but probably helps your chances of winning. People are comfortable with it because that's how its always been done.
Football is different but the same principles apply. You just have to assess the probability that your offense will score under different time-usage scenarios. And you have to assess the probability your opponent will score, given a certain amount of time remaining on the clock.
This is a trivial probability exercise that a smart 12 year old could do. A smart organization would have the data gathered and the scenarios mapped out well ahead of time. Unfortunately, the giants are not a smart organization and have likely not even considered issues like this, let alone done the work to prepare.
I didn't
In today's game that favors the offense (because the NFL thinks it's more exciting that way), I think you do have to consider taking time off before scoring. You can't simply just take the points anymore. We've seen Belichick decide to let a team score so the offense had a chance to win it (even though it didn't work out for them). Again, today's rules and the officiating of those rules, favors the offense.
In this case, the Giants had to get that 30 point monkey off of their back and not waste their chance.