Yes, I know there are several threads on this topic but there will be many more afterward. In this thread, I'd like to get perceptions of several QBs, as well as talk about results so far. To me, there are
Justin Herbert / 6'6", 233 lbs / Oregon
Season: 106-168, 63.1%, 1613 yards, 17-5 TD-INT, 5-1 record
Ryan Finley / 6'4", 212 lbs / NC State
Season: 130-187, 69.5%, 1621 yards, 10-3 TD-INT, 5-0 record
Drew Lock / 6'4", 225 lbs / Missouri
Season: 131-223, 58.7%, 1629 yards, 12-6 TD-INT, 3-3 record
Daniel Jones / 6'5", 220 lbs / Duke
Season: 69-101, 68.3%, 821 yards, 8-2 TD-INT, 3-1 record
Will Grier / 6'3", 223 lbs / West Virginia
137-192, 71.4%, 1919 yards, 22-7 TD-INT, 5-1 record
I do think this group of 5 is, at this point the only college QBs worth discussing.
Here are a few of my thoughts thus far, but by no means do I have an informed enough opinion on any of them to this point. It's still so early.
I'll save Herbert for last because he's the most talked about.
On Grier - He kind of scares me. Great numbers thus far, but I don't like he has 7 INTs already. But the completion pct is really good. I'm impressed that he's played great in big games. He has elusiveness, but gets careless with the football at times and makes ill-advised throws. The PED thing might drop him out of the top of the first round. I do think he is a playmaker and I like the toolset he brings.
Daniel Jones - I watched his game against VT. I liked what I saw of him a lot and think that if he decides to enter the draft, he could go a lot higher than what people think right now. He definitely makes his team/teammates better. Seems to have a really good arm, and good deep ball accuracy from what I've seen overall. Sometimes he telegraphs with his footwork and eyes, but other times I saw him go through progressions and seems to see the whole field. I think he's an advanced passer, and very competitive. What I love about him is he seems to have very good pocket feel and evades well.
Drew Lock - I'm flip-flopping on him. I want to like him, I just don't know. He has faced the toughest schedule of any of the above by far. He didn't look great against Alabama but they make many opposing QBs look bad. I read he's not much of a leader of men. That bothers me, I am hoping the next QB is more of a vocal leader. He seems to have all the tools.
Ryan Finley - I think he's going to be a good NFL QB one day. How good I don't know. But he is one of the more accurate passers in this class. I think he throws one of the prettiest balls of this class, with fantastic touch. Really looking to see more of him. I do think he's a first round talent.
Herbert - Other than the throw he made at the end of the half, I was a little disappointed. But that throw was huge and it was a good one. Tool set seems to be there. I didn't get to see the whole game, though. I do think his release is a little slow, and he hasn't shown what he can really do yet. I see him stare down receivers. I want to like him, and hope to see improvements. I need to see more, but I didn't see this can't-miss prospect everyone is talking about, but again, I need to see a lot more of him.
Man, if we could come away with a top QB in 2019 AND get Barkley, then it would have all worked out, IMO.
Man, if we could come away with a top QB in 2019 AND get Barkley, then it would have all worked out, IMO.
He is a true sophomore, and will not be draft eligible until 2020
I don't like the pro prospects for Hawkins or Tua at this point. Two programs that are not producing quality QBs for the NFL either.
Herbert Analysis - ( New Window )
How much of Tua's success is the team he plays on?
Yeah let's pass on a potential franchise QB because Dave Brown was a bust 26 years ago. That's a great way to run your franchise!
Man, if we could come away with a top QB in 2019 AND get Barkley, then it would have all worked out, IMO.
Tua won't be eligible to come out until the 2020 class. Having watched some of him, obviously he has ridiculous arm talent. But I think he's a bit overhyped in terms of the overall package. He's undersized which is ok, but he has to protect himself and he didn't in this last game, and he needs to learn when to give up on a play and just throw it away instead of try to do too much. He's benefiting from the fact that Alabama is superior than everyone else at just about every position. Yes, I do think he'd be really good elsewhere, but I think you have to pump the breaks on him just a little bit. I'm not saying he's not a tremendous prospect, he is. What he did on the National Championship stage was special. But the way people are talking about him as this all-time uber prospect, I just think that's premature.
Link - ( New Window )
Ah, the old, "he plays for ____ University so he couldn't possibly be good enough" argument. Not a very good argument.
Pretty sure the Eagles are happy they didn't think that way. I wonder if the Browns would've been happier with the Derek Carr pick from Fresno State rather than "Johnny Football" from Texas A&M? I'm sure the Steelers really wish they took Craig Krenzel from a real football program rather than Ben Roethlisberger from Miami of Ohio. Heck, at least Matt Schaub played for Virginia. Did the Houston Oilers make a mistake in drafting Steve McNair from Alcorn State?
From what I saw of Daniel Jones, he has every physical tool, prototype size, moves very well (possibly better than Herbert), and sees the field better than anyone I've looked at so far. He has the Blue Devils winning games they don't normally win. It's still way too early, but I'm very impressed with him.
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So there's a list of 4.
Ah, the old, "he plays for ____ University so he couldn't possibly be good enough" argument. Not a very good argument.
Pretty sure the Eagles are happy they didn't think that way. I wonder if the Browns would've been happier with the Derek Carr pick from Fresno State rather than "Johnny Football" from Texas A&M? I'm sure the Steelers really wish they took Craig Krenzel from a real football program rather than Ben Roethlisberger from Miami of Ohio. Heck, at least Matt Schaub played for Virginia. Did the Houston Oilers make a mistake in drafting Steve McNair from Alcorn State?
From what I saw of Daniel Jones, he has every physical tool, prototype size, moves very well (possibly better than Herbert), and sees the field better than anyone I've looked at so far. He has the Blue Devils winning games they don't normally win. It's still way too early, but I'm very impressed with him.
Jim, who does Daniel Jones remind you of? I saw a little Roethlisberger in him.
Finley is a guy that really intrigues me as a fit for this team. He's a longterm starter in a west coast influenced pro style that is very similar to what we run here. I'm also starting to think it's better to get the QB that can come in right away over the high upside project based on how rookie QB salaries pertain to the cap. You may be better off getting a guy that is ready to start from Day 1 so you can leverage the cap benefits in that first contract immediately.
Finley is a guy that really intrigues me as a fit for this team. He's a longterm starter in a west coast influenced pro style that is very similar to what we run here. I'm also starting to think it's better to get the QB that can come in right away over the high upside project based on how rookie QB salaries pertain to the cap. You may be better off getting a guy that is ready to start from Day 1 so you can leverage the cap benefits in that first contract immediately.
Daniel Jones and Finley are probably the most NFL ready in the class. What is Finley's upside?
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In comment 14129212 FStubbs said:
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So there's a list of 4.
Ah, the old, "he plays for ____ University so he couldn't possibly be good enough" argument. Not a very good argument.
Pretty sure the Eagles are happy they didn't think that way. I wonder if the Browns would've been happier with the Derek Carr pick from Fresno State rather than "Johnny Football" from Texas A&M? I'm sure the Steelers really wish they took Craig Krenzel from a real football program rather than Ben Roethlisberger from Miami of Ohio. Heck, at least Matt Schaub played for Virginia. Did the Houston Oilers make a mistake in drafting Steve McNair from Alcorn State?
From what I saw of Daniel Jones, he has every physical tool, prototype size, moves very well (possibly better than Herbert), and sees the field better than anyone I've looked at so far. He has the Blue Devils winning games they don't normally win. It's still way too early, but I'm very impressed with him.
Jim, who does Daniel Jones remind you of? I saw a little Roethlisberger in him.
Yes, maybe a Ben Roethlisberger - Matt Ryan hybrid.
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It's a byproduct of playing for mediocre programs in the runt Power 5, not being huge recruits out of high school and not having these eye-popping measurables. But they can play. They are smart, accurate and decisive with the football and are elevating the talent around them. Classic case of what everybody sees as "late risers" in the draftnik community when in reality the scouts have been on them all along.
Finley is a guy that really intrigues me as a fit for this team. He's a longterm starter in a west coast influenced pro style that is very similar to what we run here. I'm also starting to think it's better to get the QB that can come in right away over the high upside project based on how rookie QB salaries pertain to the cap. You may be better off getting a guy that is ready to start from Day 1 so you can leverage the cap benefits in that first contract immediately.
Daniel Jones and Finley are probably the most NFL ready in the class. What is Finley's upside?
I think it's clear that Finley is going to have the most mobility limitations out of this group. That's not to say he's a statue. He can move ok, but he's a pocket passer for sure. I think he's some part Matt Stafford, maybe some Troy Aikman.
His problems are twofold: inexperience and his offense.
It's his first full year starting, so he's learning. His big tests will come later in the year vs better pass rushes.
I think a bigger issue is that he plays in a pure spread RPO. He's never taken a snap under center.
These will be the knocks against him, but damn he throws a nice ball. Best pure passer I've seen in a while.
I also think "upside" is a fabrication of the draftnik community and some scouts with QBs based on how far a guy could throw the ball or how fast he runs a 40. He has an NFL, he has NFL size, he's not a statue. I see no reason why it would be limited when he he hits the pre requisites and so much of the position is played between the ears.
No I definitely agree with that. I actually do like his upside as a passer. I think he can be one of those guys that is that perennial 4500 yards passing and 35 TDs guys. Finley has an enormous game against Clemson this week. I don't think NC State will win that game, but if Finley plays well, it should raise his profile enormously.
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when all is said and done, he's going to be a 1 and done QB.
His problems are twofold: inexperience and his offense.
It's his first full year starting, so he's learning. His big tests will come later in the year vs better pass rushes.
I think a bigger issue is that he plays in a pure spread RPO. He's never taken a snap under center.
These will be the knocks against him, but damn he throws a nice ball. Best pure passer I've seen in a while.
He would be a good fit for a team like NE or Pittsburgh that can sit him on the bench for two years and let him develop.
This should be required reading for anyone expressing an opinion.
5-PLAY PROSPECT: DUKE QB DANIEL JONES - ( New Window )
I’d rank them
Mobility
1. Herbert
2. Jones
3. Grier
4. Lock
5. Finley
Deep Ball
1. Grier
2. Herbert
3. Jones
4. Lock
5. Finley
Accuracy
1. Grier
2. Jones
3. Herbert
4. Finley
5. Lock
Pocket Presence
1. Jones
2. Finley
3. Herbert
4. Lock
5. Grier
Technique
1. Jones
2. Finley
3. Herbert
4. Grier
5. Lock
Agreed, I think he checks all the boxes. Someone posted an analysis of most of his throws, he puts the balls in tight windows like I've never seen a Oregon qb do in prior years. I think where some get nervous with him is the Oregon pedigree. Admittedly, I was one of those people , but I think his ability transcends the scheme.
Two things that may hold him back from being a Giants are his draft status, and the Giants may not have a high enough pick to get him.
I had no idea how bad his surrounding cast is.
Due to dropped balls, tipped balls leading to interceptions, and poor blocking by the offensive line, Hebert had to be perfect.
He can motor and has a very strong accurate arm.
I agree with some of the prognosticators that he moves and throws like Aaron Rodgers.
I'm not there yet. For now I liked Sam Darnold at this point over all these guys.
Herbert can be that. I do see the huge potential.
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Just Herbert, looks like Wentz 2.0
I'm not there yet. For now I liked Sam Darnold at this point over all these guys.
Herbert can be that. I do see the huge potential.
I like Darnold more than Herbert as well but I like Herbert more than Rosen, Allen, or Mayfield. If he starts week one I think Herbert will struggle as a rookie like Eli and Jared Goff did. I also believe that he will take a big leap forward in year 2 just as those two did. Trubisky was bad last season as well and he appears to have turned the corner.
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So there's a list of 4.
Yeah let's pass on a potential franchise QB because Dave Brown was a bust 26 years ago. That's a great way to run your franchise!
I went to Duke and am a big Duke football fan. I half-joked right after the Giants passed on a QB in 2018 draft that they can now draft Daniel Jones in 2019. IMO He's a legit NFL caliber QB with an NFL arm and size, and also a good athlete. I'm not sure if he's a top 10 pick though. I have a hard time seeing him, at this point, in the same conversation as the four who came out last year. Maybe by the end of the year he'll have it all together, but I suspect that he would probably need another year (as a fifth year senior) to reach potential as a top 10 pick. My guess is he ends up around a 3rd round pick if he comes out this year.
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In comment 14129212 FStubbs said:
Quote:
So there's a list of 4.
Yeah let's pass on a potential franchise QB because Dave Brown was a bust 26 years ago. That's a great way to run your franchise!
I went to Duke and am a big Duke football fan. I half-joked right after the Giants passed on a QB in 2018 draft that they can now draft Daniel Jones in 2019. IMO He's a legit NFL caliber QB with an NFL arm and size, and also a good athlete. I'm not sure if he's a top 10 pick though. I have a hard time seeing him, at this point, in the same conversation as the four who came out last year. Maybe by the end of the year he'll have it all together, but I suspect that he would probably need another year (as a fifth year senior) to reach potential as a top 10 pick. My guess is he ends up around a 3rd round pick if he comes out this year.
Hey thanks for that perspective, Danny.