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NFT: Heat & Drought Could Threaten World Beer Supply...

SFGFNCGiantsFan : 10/15/2018 7:49 pm
Haven't we suffered another this fall? Come on.

I guess the silver lining, if there is one, is that climate change won't really hurt barley until the end of the century when all of us will be long gone.
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this year sure has not been a drought  
Steve in South Jersey : 10/15/2018 7:51 pm : link
.
it would not surprise me  
UESBLUE : 10/15/2018 7:58 pm : link
if this thread ends up turning political lol
RE: it would not surprise me  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 10/15/2018 8:00 pm : link
In comment 14130297 UESBLUE said:
Quote:
if this thread ends up turning political lol


I fear you're right, but I hope not.
Changing climate will threaten lots of what we eat and drink  
Ben in Tampa : 10/15/2018 8:39 pm : link
No denying that. There are concerns in the traditional wine regions as well about the affect the warming planet will have on yields/quality/ability to produce.

It is alarming how different the world will be as the globe keeps heating up.
Yes, but think how easy  
section125 : 10/15/2018 8:43 pm : link
it will be to fry eggs on car hoods....
RE: this year sure has not been a drought  
Jim in Fairfax : 10/15/2018 8:48 pm : link
In comment 14130287 Steve in South Jersey said:
Quote:
.

Not in South Jersey, but many areas out west have drought conditions.
Thankfully corn is a much more sustainable plant  
chopperhatch : 10/15/2018 8:49 pm : link
Than barley or hops and Bourbon is at no risk by a silly problem like drought.
I'm Not Worried  
Trainmaster : 10/15/2018 11:07 pm : link
Quote:
The earth's climate system "is warming." True or false? The answer is that there is no definitive answer. And if someone tells you there is, then that person doesn't know what he or she is talking about.

A more precise answer to the question is that whether the earth's climate system "is warming" or "is cooling" entirely depends on who gets to pick the start date for the analysis. If you are the one who gets to pick the start date, then you can make it so that the system is either warming or cooling, whichever you would like for your purpose of the moment.

But of course, there are many people out there today with a lot invested in the proposition that the climate system "is warming." That proposition is a key tenet of global warming alarmism. To "prove" the point that the system "is warming," advocates use the simple trick of picking a start point to their liking, making for a presentation that appears to support their position. Have you been fooled by this simple trick? The advocates leave it up to you to figure out that if you picked a different start point, you could just as easily make an equally convincing presentation showing that the climate system "is cooling." A lot of seemingly intelligent people can't figure that out, and get taken in by the scam.

So here's the real answer to the question of whether the earth's ciimate system "is warming":

If your start date is June 2018, it "is warming."
If your start date is January 2016, it "is cooling."
If your start date is January 1998, it "is cooling."
If your start date is 1880, it "is warming."
If your start date is the year 1000, it "is cooling."
If your start date is the Dark Ages, it "is warming."
If your start date is Roman times, it "is cooling."

How Do You Tell If The Earth's Climate System - ( New Window )
RE: I'm Not Worried  
jcn56 : 10/15/2018 11:21 pm : link
In comment 14130561 Trainmaster said:
Quote:


I'm not surprised you're not worried - you have a good supply of long winded drivel to convince you not to be.
RE: I'm Not Worried  
Dave in PA : 10/15/2018 11:36 pm : link
In comment 14130561 Trainmaster said:
Quote:


Quote:


The earth's climate system "is warming." True or false? The answer is that there is no definitive answer. And if someone tells you there is, then that person doesn't know what he or she is talking about.

A more precise answer to the question is that whether the earth's climate system "is warming" or "is cooling" entirely depends on who gets to pick the start date for the analysis. If you are the one who gets to pick the start date, then you can make it so that the system is either warming or cooling, whichever you would like for your purpose of the moment.

But of course, there are many people out there today with a lot invested in the proposition that the climate system "is warming." That proposition is a key tenet of global warming alarmism. To "prove" the point that the system "is warming," advocates use the simple trick of picking a start point to their liking, making for a presentation that appears to support their position. Have you been fooled by this simple trick? The advocates leave it up to you to figure out that if you picked a different start point, you could just as easily make an equally convincing presentation showing that the climate system "is cooling." A lot of seemingly intelligent people can't figure that out, and get taken in by the scam.

So here's the real answer to the question of whether the earth's ciimate system "is warming":

If your start date is June 2018, it "is warming."
If your start date is January 2016, it "is cooling."
If your start date is January 1998, it "is cooling."
If your start date is 1880, it "is warming."
If your start date is the year 1000, it "is cooling."
If your start date is the Dark Ages, it "is warming."
If your start date is Roman times, it "is cooling."


How Do You Tell If The Earth's Climate System - ( New Window )
Either carbon molecules trap heat or they don’t. Humans have been burning a huge amount of sequestered carbon. You do the math.
When I Hear Supposedly Reputable Scientists Say  
Trainmaster : 10/16/2018 12:38 am : link
"settled science" regarding a subject as complex as a planetary atmosphere and global climate, I really worry. We're not talking F = ma.

Of course in a laboratory environment gases such as carbon dioxide and methane trap "heat". That is "settled science". However, extending those simple concepts planet wide and then believe the modeling and extrapolations are highly accurate is very dubious.

Temperature measurements are inherently "local" and subject to localized biases; any attempts to globalize local measurements need to be done very carefully. The old saw, "Bad data is worse than no data" applies.

I also worry about the "vested interest" factor. The climate researchers greatly benefit from hyping up the risk; it increases their research dollars. I have a friend who is a solar astronomer. He tried for years to get federal funding for a line of research; always rejected. He resubmitted the same funding request with a "climate change / global warming" angle and got the funding he previously was denied.

Has the global average temperature risen relative to where it was a decades ago? Maybe. Do I think it will cause the catastrophic consequences those spouting all the doom and gloom? No.

The climate has changed over any time period you choose. Biological and geological systems have always brought things back into a rough balance.

Why be a "climate conservative"? Isn't "climate diversity" better?

:-)
RE: When I Hear Supposedly Reputable Scientists Say  
DonQuixote : 10/16/2018 1:44 am : link
In comment 14130660 Trainmaster said:
Quote:
"settled science" regarding a subject as complex as a planetary atmosphere and global climate, I really worry. We're not talking F = ma.

Of course in a laboratory environment gases such as carbon dioxide and methane trap "heat". That is "settled science". However, extending those simple concepts planet wide and then believe the modeling and extrapolations are highly accurate is very dubious.

Temperature measurements are inherently "local" and subject to localized biases; any attempts to globalize local measurements need to be done very carefully. The old saw, "Bad data is worse than no data" applies.

I also worry about the "vested interest" factor. The climate researchers greatly benefit from hyping up the risk; it increases their research dollars. I have a friend who is a solar astronomer. He tried for years to get federal funding for a line of research; always rejected. He resubmitted the same funding request with a "climate change / global warming" angle and got the funding he previously was denied.

Has the global average temperature risen relative to where it was a decades ago? Maybe. Do I think it will cause the catastrophic consequences those spouting all the doom and gloom? No.

The climate has changed over any time period you choose. Biological and geological systems have always brought things back into a rough balance.

Why be a "climate conservative"? Isn't "climate diversity" better?

:-)


Is this sarcasm, because if not you are absolutely clueless ...
Don't get me started.  
x meadowlander : 10/16/2018 10:07 am : link
The consensus of climatologists - the actual subject matter experts is what matters. Concerns of CO2 increases aren't based on junk science, or 'opinion' - they're based in generations of scientific research and tracking. The graph below goes up to 2010, and just as the trend would predict, the next spike is UP, 2016 the hottest year in recorded history.


RE: I'm Not Worried - you posted garbage, dude  
x meadowlander : 10/16/2018 10:13 am : link
In comment 14130561 Trainmaster said:
Quote:


Quote:


The earth's climate system "is warming." True or false? The answer is that there is no definitive answer. And if someone tells you there is, then that person doesn't know what he or she is talking about.

A more precise answer to the question is that whether the earth's climate system "is warming" or "is cooling" entirely depends on who gets to pick the start date for the analysis. If you are the one who gets to pick the start date, then you can make it so that the system is either warming or cooling, whichever you would like for your purpose of the moment.

But of course, there are many people out there today with a lot invested in the proposition that the climate system "is warming." That proposition is a key tenet of global warming alarmism. To "prove" the point that the system "is warming," advocates use the simple trick of picking a start point to their liking, making for a presentation that appears to support their position. Have you been fooled by this simple trick? The advocates leave it up to you to figure out that if you picked a different start point, you could just as easily make an equally convincing presentation showing that the climate system "is cooling." A lot of seemingly intelligent people can't figure that out, and get taken in by the scam.

So here's the real answer to the question of whether the earth's ciimate system "is warming":

If your start date is June 2018, it "is warming."
If your start date is January 2016, it "is cooling."
If your start date is January 1998, it "is cooling."
If your start date is 1880, it "is warming."
If your start date is the year 1000, it "is cooling."
If your start date is the Dark Ages, it "is warming."
If your start date is Roman times, it "is cooling."


How Do You Tell If The Earth's Climate System - ( New Window )
2016 was the hottest year ever recorded.
Haha, how to know when to ignore someone  
jcn56 : 10/16/2018 12:11 pm : link
You went on and on - conspiracy about how there's 'vested interests' trying to play up the problem for research dollars, how an imaginary friend got his research funded, and then dropped this gem:

Quote:
Has the global average temperature risen relative to where it was a decades ago? Maybe.


If only it weren't so easy to measure something like that. And if there weren't multiple sources to choose from to avoid bias.

Or, if there weren't huge fucking chunks of ancient glaciers falling into the ocean at the poles.

Stick to being bad at football posts, this is science, and it's pretty basic. The earth is warming - if you want to play politics have at it, just stick to the causes and don't try to deny the obvious, measurable facts.
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