This is a phenomenon that predates Shurmur by years and years, but it’s still mind boggling when you see it play out. A situation that highly paid, experienced NFL coaches routinely get wrong but your average teenage Madden junky would easily get right.
Bill Simmons gets credit for publicizing this over the years; it’s always resonated with me because as a kid playing Madden I understood it. I don’t know why NFL coaches don’t.
The situation last night:
1:50 left, Giants ball, losing 23-13. Obviously a win is very unlikely, but in order to win you need at least a touchdown and a field goal. Two scores in 1:50. A TD will take longer to score than a FG - you want to allocate as much time as you can to the TD drive but you need enough time to kick a FG as well. The best solution is to kick the field goal as soon as you can to get that out of the way and preserve clock. Then you can proceed with your touchdown drive attempt knowing exactly how much time you have left and managing the game and your risk accordingly.
So, last night, first play of the drive - 58 yard pass to Shepherd. Great! First down on the Atlanta 14, 1:36 left. Kick the field goal! This is close to the best outcome you could have asked for after one play. Take your three points and go try to convert an onside kick (which is required in any winning scenario). If that works you will have say 1:25 left to get your TD.
What did the Giants do? They focused on getting a touchdown, eventually succeeded but ate up all of the remaining clock with their attempt, leaving only five seconds for a FG after an onside kick. This also influenced their onside kick options because they needed to recover the ball already in range, otherwise they wouldn’t have time.
Shurmur is not alone in getting this wrong. Coaches get it wrong more often than not. The only explanation I can come up with is that a teenager playing Madden has no real consequences if they lose so they are free to make a clear headed decision to try and win the game. Whereas NFL coaches worry about making a controversial or wrong decision and getting blowback or losing their job, so they go for the TD because it’s somehow viewed as more defensible.
I was thinking it during the Dallas-Redskins game on Sunday too.
You NEED two scores. As soon as you get in position to knock one of those off the board (with a reasonable FG that any pro kicker should make), you need to take the opportunity and extend the game.
You nerds and your fancy 'Ataris' (waves hands)...
We ran the simulation in practice and the sneaks were the right call.
Quote:
but our front office uses a different technology...
You nerds and your fancy 'Ataris' (waves hands)...
We ran the simulation in practice and the sneaks were the right call.
Sweet Analytics, Bro
Not true if you have a 3 win season but told the press in the preseason that you thought you would be a playoff team you get fired in Madden. Its happen to me in our BBI madden league before.
LOL that was a good one.
but the quick FG is defensible.
what's not defensible? two qb sneaks from the 2 yard line with a qb that has never been good at sneaks.
And how do you score that second touchdown when you leave 5 seconds on the clock.
How about you do not go for 2 on the previous touchdown. Then you could kick the field goal, and if you score a touchdown afterwards, you can either go for the tie or for the win with a 2 point try.