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How One Flawed Study Launched a Wave of CTE Hysteria

kelsto811 : 11/5/2018 12:18 pm
"How One Flawed Study and Irresponsible Reporting Launched a Wave of CTE Hysteria"

Wondering if anyone got a chance to read this and what your thoughts are? Written by Merril Hoge and contributions from Dr. Peter Cummings. Juice of the article can be read through the link

Quote:
The New York Times story dropped like a bomb on football and the medical community on the morning of July 25, 2017. Dr. Ann McKee, lead neuropathologist at the Boston University CTE Center, had examined the brains of 111 former NFL players and found signs of CTE, or Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy, in 110 of them.

The news broke the internet, sent reporters scrambling to develop their own takes, and sealed the deal for millions of American parents, doctors, coaches and players. Finally, the link between playing football and developing a terrible neurodegenerative disease seemed ironclad.

As an ex-NFL player and a forensic neuropathologist, respectively, we both have an interest in solid science and sound policy that protects athletes, so we were alarmed by the CTE Center’s findings. In its wake, parents were removing their kids from Pop Warner leagues, experts were calling football “child abuse” and some states talked of banning tackle football altogether.

Then we took a closer look at the study that led to the Times story — apparently something few journalists had bothered to do. When we dug into the methodology, we were floored. The study was so badly flawed that it was nearly worthless. But that’s not what had been reported in practically every major media outlet in the world. Thanks to the barrage of sensationalist coverage, the “110 out of 111 brains” story had turned into a wildfire, and we were standing around with a couple of garden hoses, telling everybody to calm down.

Yahoo Sports - ( New Window )
No control group?  
bradshaw44 : 11/5/2018 12:28 pm : link
That's a bit shocking.
RE: No control group?  
Emil : 11/5/2018 12:37 pm : link
In comment 14165526 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
That's a bit shocking.


Many of us here said exactly that when the story dropped.

A lot of conclusions are being drawn without full evidence.
It is a bit crazy there is no control group  
mcr2343 : 11/5/2018 12:54 pm : link
But the authors explicitly state a variety of caveats...it's the mainline media that mis-represents the study that causes the issues.

“Estimates of prevalence cannot be concluded or implied from this sample,” they write, adding that the latest data don’t allow for any “estimation of the risk of participation in football and neuropathological outcomes.”

Here's a pretty good synopsis that's not trying to sell books like Hoge
Slate Article on CTE Study - ( New Window )
Scientific research  
Jerry K : 11/5/2018 12:55 pm : link
...rarely has all the facts and all the evidence. But to jump from that to the idea that the current research is not valid and there is a "plot to destroy football" is a fantastic leap.

There is strong evidence that repetitive head injuries (not just concussions, but sub-concussive impacts) can lead to CTE. It would be foolish to wait for absolute definitive proof. It makes much more sense to follow the precautionary principle and err on the side of safety and protect people who play sports where there may be blows to the head.

I would also trust medical research more than I trust the NFL, so here's a bit from an article published in the Public Medical Library: "... all individuals with neuropathologically confirmed CTE have a history of repetitive head impacts." They go on to say that this condition may not be sufficient to cause CTE and possible contributing factors need to be studied.

Current Understanding of CTE - ( New Window )
Huh  
BigBlueShock : 11/5/2018 1:01 pm : link
Didn’t Hoge have to retire early because his brain was scrambled? Maybe he gets into that in the book or this article, but seems like a strange guy to be the ring leader in this
"the plot to destroy football"  
UESBLUE : 11/5/2018 1:03 pm : link
Clearly there were some mistakes made in conducting this study. That said, agenda much book sellers?
RE: RE: No control group?  
bradshaw44 : 11/5/2018 1:32 pm : link
In comment 14165532 Emil said:
Quote:
In comment 14165526 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


That's a bit shocking.



Many of us here said exactly that when the story dropped.

A lot of conclusions are being drawn without full evidence.



When I first heard of this study the first thing I asked my brother in law, who told me about it was, "How many regular brains had CTE compared to the football players" and he told me the report said majority of regular brains studied didn't have CTE. Guess he was a liar, and I should have read the whole report.
Growing up we depended on  
joeinpa : 11/5/2018 1:39 pm : link
The media, in all arenas, to keep us informed with honest reporting to what was happening in the realm of the world.

I would even go so far as to say the media did very well, what they were intended to do, keep our government transparent, to some degree.

Freedom of the press was a corner stone of democracy.

Unfortunately today with agenda driven reporting slanted to fit a narrative and a love of sensationalism and get the story first with little regard for truth mentality, that is no longer the case.

What we have now is a ready fire aim mentality of the press that often unjustly destroys people and organizations.

Not defending the NFL or making the case it is not related to CTE, but this study definately did not warrant the reporting it spawned.
This is what the media has become  
PatersonPlank : 11/5/2018 1:42 pm : link
First out rather than get facts, have an agenda and bias, and get a click
In my opinion, it's common sense to assume that anyone who  
Ira : 11/5/2018 1:46 pm : link
gets hit as hard and as often as a professional football player will have many bad consequences to his physiology.
this is even more sensationalist  
wigs in nyc : 11/5/2018 1:54 pm : link
than the initial report. What garbage.

Yes, this study did not particularly adhere to the scientific method. WRT lack of a control group, surely this is available innumerable reports of what brains look like at certain ages? Couldn't the data in this report simply be compared to that?
RE: This is what the media has become  
EricJ : 11/5/2018 2:01 pm : link
In comment 14165630 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
First out rather than get facts, have an agenda and bias, and get a click


yep... clickbait.

The media are no longer news outlets. They are marketing companies.
No Shit  
ThatLimerickGuy : 11/5/2018 2:01 pm : link
Where is that idiot who the other day in a passing comment I made about CTE decided to get on his moral soapbox and try to shame me about this topic?

This is 2018- media (with an agenda) grabs onto something and pressures the population so hard over it that they basically will something into existence.

When I studied poli sci in the late 90's this phenomena was known as a danger in a political context but it has gotten so bad that everything is infected now.

The science was never solid. Then throw Will Smith into the mix to make that doctor into this sympathetic figure fighting this noble fight against "the man" and it spun out of control.



RE: Scientific research  
weeg in the bronx : 11/5/2018 2:05 pm : link
In comment 14165556 Jerry K said:
Quote:
...rarely has all the facts and all the evidence. But to jump from that to the idea that the current research is not valid and there is a "plot to destroy football" is a fantastic leap.

There is strong evidence that repetitive head injuries (not just concussions, but sub-concussive impacts) can lead to CTE. It would be foolish to wait for absolute definitive proof. It makes much more sense to follow the precautionary principle and err on the side of safety and protect people who play sports where there may be blows to the head.

I would also trust medical research more than I trust the NFL, so here's a bit from an article published in the Public Medical Library: "... all individuals with neuropathologically confirmed CTE have a history of repetitive head impacts." They go on to say that this condition may not be sufficient to cause CTE and possible contributing factors need to be studied. Current Understanding of CTE - ( New Window )


I take it to mean the entire focus of the discussion and research is on Football. As noted, the report doesn't include data or any analysis on other sports. Or even just college athletes who never played in the NFL. True or not, it appears to be piling on the NFL to some degree.
Yeah I’ll trust Merril Hoge  
UConn4523 : 11/5/2018 2:12 pm : link
instead of the massive amounts of research and plain old common sense. Sounds logical.
weeg  
Jerry K : 11/5/2018 2:17 pm : link
"Research has shown evidence of CTE in young football players."
Link - ( New Window )
If you watch  
Jerry K : 11/5/2018 2:21 pm : link
the Frontline special "League of Denial," it's clear the NFL surpressed and denied the science.
League of Denial - ( New Window )
RE: Yeah I’ll trust Merril Hoge  
Bill L : 11/5/2018 2:23 pm : link
In comment 14165698 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
instead of the massive amounts of research and plain old common sense. Sounds logical.
That's what I said tot he anti-vaxxers and the chronic lyme folks...but still it goes on. That's simply how the world works
Merrill Hoge?  
Chris in Philly : 11/5/2018 2:33 pm : link
Bahahaha...
I would just like to see a study  
ctc in ftmyers : 11/5/2018 2:39 pm : link
that is properly done, peer reviewed, and methodology properly done. Let the results fall where they may.

That is with any subject. Not just CTE.
RE: I would just like to see a study  
bradshaw44 : 11/5/2018 2:40 pm : link
In comment 14165727 ctc in ftmyers said:
Quote:
that is properly done, peer reviewed, and methodology properly done. Let the results fall where they may.

That is with any subject. Not just CTE.


Thank you.
RE: I would just like to see a study  
UConn4523 : 11/5/2018 2:46 pm : link
In comment 14165727 ctc in ftmyers said:
Quote:
that is properly done, peer reviewed, and methodology properly done. Let the results fall where they may.

That is with any subject. Not just CTE.


Wouldn’t everyone like that? Sounds like it would take a really long time and be incredibly expensive. I’m all for it but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t look at the research that has been done.

Everyone gets caught up in the “hey why is the nfl being singled out” argument when the focus should be on what we DO know. The NFL coverup is a major reason why they are singled out a lot, so is the fact that the ex players have some horrible long term effects from playing. There’s many reasons.
.  
FranchiseQB : 11/5/2018 2:52 pm : link
Are there people here seriously denying the science of CTE? What next? Are we going to hear impassioned denials of climate change? Of evolution? Is evolution on the block now as you piss on the media for creating all your problems?

What a bunch of cowards. Until further notice here are your instructions:

1. CTE is killing ex-football players.
2. Climate change is destroying the environment.
3. Science is real.
4. Evolution is real.
5. The media is a bunch of imperfect humans trying to make a living like you. They get a lot right and a lot wrong. Use your fucking brains and seek out other sources before forming an opinion.
RE: Yeah I’ll trust Merril Hoge  
Mr. Bungle : 11/5/2018 2:58 pm : link
In comment 14165698 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
instead of the massive amounts of research and plain old common sense. Sounds logical.

I always thought Merril Hoge was Exhibit A for CTE.
...  
Doug in MA : 11/5/2018 3:44 pm : link
this is co-written by Dr. Cummings...so it's not Merrill Hoge necessarily. This also has nothing to do with Merrill Hoge...it has to do with these "studies" which for the average American mean "fact". A peer reviewed study that appears in a medical journal has to meet certain criteria. This simply doesn't even come close.

How much does the BU Neuropathology receive in grants every year? How much does McKee's income vary with regards to grant money? That's the story for me.

The bigger question I have is why. It's not reporting...it's an attack.

...  
Doug in MA : 11/5/2018 3:45 pm : link
and this is not me saying cte doesn't exist...i just don't understand the agenda.
RE: Growing up we depended on  
JayBinQueens : 11/5/2018 3:49 pm : link
In comment 14165624 joeinpa said:
Quote:
The media, in all arenas, to keep us informed with honest reporting to what was happening in the realm of the world.

I would even go so far as to say the media did very well, what they were intended to do, keep our government transparent, to some degree.

Freedom of the press was a corner stone of democracy.

Unfortunately today with agenda driven reporting slanted to fit a narrative and a love of sensationalism and get the story first with little regard for truth mentality, that is no longer the case.

What we have now is a ready fire aim mentality of the press that often unjustly destroys people and organizations.

Not defending the NFL or making the case it is not related to CTE, but this study definately did not warrant the reporting it spawned.


I remember seeing an interview with Dan Rather and he said the media all started to change once the major networks were purchased by major corporations (NBC bought by GE, ABC by Disney etc). Doesn't look like it's going to change any time soon
This guy is a real asshole.  
Ten Ton Hammer : 11/5/2018 3:56 pm : link
[url] https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2000-07-22-0007220191-story,amp.html [/url]

Lake County jury Friday ordered a former Bears team physician to pay former fullback Merril Hoge $1.55 million for failing to warn him about the severity of his concussions, which Hoge said forced him to retire at 29.

Hoge, currently an analyst for ESPN, had sued Dr. John Munsell for nearly $2.2 million, an estimate of his potential earnings had he remained an active player in the NFL. The medical malpractice lawsuit, filed in 1996, also sought an unspecified amount for pain and suffering and disability.

After deliberating for nearly 10 hours, the jury awarded Hoge $1.45 million for two years of a three-year contract he was not paid for and $100,000 for pain and suffering.

"Merril is very pleased that the jury agreed that even football players deserve to get medical treatment like other people," said Bob Fogel, Hoge's attorney.
Hoge is...  
Chris in Philly : 11/5/2018 3:58 pm : link
an embarrassment. People being willfully obtuse on this topic is a bizarre trend...
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Hoge is...  
FranchiseQB : 11/5/2018 4:05 pm : link
In comment 14165844 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
an embarrassment. People being willfully obtuse on this topic is a bizarre trend... Link - ( New Window )



exactly. I trust the scientific to sort this out. Something is happening. It made Seau and Duerson among others kill themselves. Every ex-player, when autopsied, show signs. Dementia is through the roof.

If there are issues with how studies were conducted then of course we should have the best studies going forwaed. But to infer from this that CTE is bogus is just wishful thinking.
People are stupid.  
Thegratefulhead : 11/5/2018 4:24 pm : link
Measles is making comeback because of a flawed study.
RE: weeg  
weeg in the bronx : 11/5/2018 6:51 pm : link
In comment 14165702 Jerry K said:
Quote:
"Research has shown evidence of CTE in young football players." Link - ( New Window )


Didn't know that,thanks.

Honestly  
kelsto811 : 11/5/2018 6:59 pm : link
I think its just a really poor attempt to push his book. Yes, it shows that the study lacked proper protocol but anyone with a brain knows that CTE exists and is caused by repeated hits to the head. Just was looking for a discussion on it and got that. I still find it pretty unbelievable that this lacked a control group. It would just make the evidence that much more damning.
RE: Honestly  
ThatLimerickGuy : 11/5/2018 7:27 pm : link
In comment 14166111 kelsto811 said:
Quote:
I think its just a really poor attempt to push his book. Yes, it shows that the study lacked proper protocol but anyone with a brain knows that CTE exists and is caused by repeated hits to the head. Just was looking for a discussion on it and got that. I still find it pretty unbelievable that this lacked a control group. It would just make the evidence that much more damning.


I don't think anyone can ever deny that CTE is a thing. It's medically quantifiable and shown in brain scans.

The problem becomes how it has been treated by the media and the public.

Millionaire athletes are telling you that they needed a peer rated study to tell them that bringing their body to it's complete physical limits, strapping on plastic body armor and repeatedly running full speed into another person wearing the same body armor is going to lead to long term head trauma. Before the media went all ga ga over the hot term "CTE" it was just known as being scrambled. It's not new. If I willingly jump from a plane at 100 feet without a parachute and break my legs I don't try to blame the pilot. Get it?
RE: Scientific research  
BMac : 11/5/2018 8:07 pm : link
In comment 14165556 Jerry K said:
Quote:
...rarely has all the facts and all the evidence. But to jump from that to the idea that the current research is not valid and there is a "plot to destroy football" is a fantastic leap.

There is strong evidence that repetitive head injuries (not just concussions, but sub-concussive impacts) can lead to CTE. It would be foolish to wait for absolute definitive proof. It makes much more sense to follow the precautionary principle and err on the side of safety and protect people who play sports where there may be blows to the head.

I would also trust medical research more than I trust the NFL, so here's a bit from an article published in the Public Medical Library: "... all individuals with neuropathologically confirmed CTE have a history of repetitive head impacts." They go on to say that this condition may not be sufficient to cause CTE and possible contributing factors need to be studied. Current Understanding of CTE - ( New Window )


But it isn't just blows to the head.
RE: This is what the media has become  
BMac : 11/5/2018 8:08 pm : link
In comment 14165630 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
First out rather than get facts, have an agenda and bias, and get a click


Another idiot.
RE: Merrill Hoge?  
Hsilwek92 : 11/5/2018 8:51 pm : link
In comment 14165723 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
Bahahaha...


This.
RE: No Shit  
Hsilwek92 : 11/5/2018 8:53 pm : link
In comment 14165683 ThatLimerickGuy said:
Quote:
Where is that idiot who the other day in a passing comment I made about CTE decided to get on his moral soapbox and try to shame me about this topic?

This is 2018- media (with an agenda) grabs onto something and pressures the population so hard over it that they basically will something into existence.

When I studied poli sci in the late 90's this phenomena was known as a danger in a political context but it has gotten so bad that everything is infected now.

The science was never solid. Then throw Will Smith into the mix to make that doctor into this sympathetic figure fighting this noble fight against "the man" and it spun out of control.




Interesting....

What about the effects of CTE on the underground gay scene?
RE: RE: Honestly  
kelsto811 : 11/5/2018 9:30 pm : link
In comment 14166137 ThatLimerickGuy said:
Quote:
In comment 14166111 kelsto811 said:


Quote:


I think its just a really poor attempt to push his book. Yes, it shows that the study lacked proper protocol but anyone with a brain knows that CTE exists and is caused by repeated hits to the head. Just was looking for a discussion on it and got that. I still find it pretty unbelievable that this lacked a control group. It would just make the evidence that much more damning.



I don't think anyone can ever deny that CTE is a thing. It's medically quantifiable and shown in brain scans.

The problem becomes how it has been treated by the media and the public.

Millionaire athletes are telling you that they needed a peer rated study to tell them that bringing their body to it's complete physical limits, strapping on plastic body armor and repeatedly running full speed into another person wearing the same body armor is going to lead to long term head trauma. Before the media went all ga ga over the hot term "CTE" it was just known as being scrambled. It's not new. If I willingly jump from a plane at 100 feet without a parachute and break my legs I don't try to blame the pilot. Get it?


I don't disagree with you at all. Is it surprising to you though? This is their agenda.
RE: RE: No Shit  
kelsto811 : 11/5/2018 9:30 pm : link
In comment 14166243 Hsilwek92 said:
Quote:
In comment 14165683 ThatLimerickGuy said:


Quote:


Where is that idiot who the other day in a passing comment I made about CTE decided to get on his moral soapbox and try to shame me about this topic?

This is 2018- media (with an agenda) grabs onto something and pressures the population so hard over it that they basically will something into existence.

When I studied poli sci in the late 90's this phenomena was known as a danger in a political context but it has gotten so bad that everything is infected now.

The science was never solid. Then throw Will Smith into the mix to make that doctor into this sympathetic figure fighting this noble fight against "the man" and it spun out of control.






Interesting....

What about the effects of CTE on the underground gay scene?


Give it a rest
...  
christian : 11/5/2018 10:03 pm : link
Virtually every point in that article has been acknowledged by the original researchers and discussed thoroughly in the media. There's nothing new there.

The real issue is the NFL wilfully ignored, obscured, and hid information that described the seriousness and frequency of injury.

No one is arguing players didn't know football was dangerous. But the NFL as the employer is charged with maintaining work place safety, and instead conspired to hide information.

This is a cased closed point. The NFL has lost this argument at ever juncture and is on the hook.
RE: Yeah I’ll trust Merril Hoge  
LauderdaleMatty : 11/5/2018 10:45 pm : link
In comment 14165698 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
instead of the massive amounts of research and plain old common sense. Sounds logical.


This is why peoplenget led around bybhe nose. They put out a bullshit study. You should reserve your judgment. And I’ll bet the next medical study you read( not some snipet) will be your first.

Studies are flawed all The time. And there’s are agendas. Period. Doesn’t mean the NFL aid blameless but without a control group and a netrer design this study is utterly useless. But it’s betrer to grab a pitchfork and join the mob.
RE: I would just like to see a study  
LauderdaleMatty : 11/5/2018 10:52 pm : link
In comment 14165727 ctc in ftmyers said:
Quote:
that is properly done, peer reviewed, and methodology properly done. Let the results fall where they may.

That is with any subject. Not just CTE.


I’ve been in medical sales for 25 years. Have read a lot of studies. Some good some trash. There are good ones out there. But they dont make for exciting reading. The Mob has decided they are all neurologists and PHDs. No one is saying playing a violent contact sport cant or isn’t dangerous long term to someone’s health but the hysteria rules the day.

That study was seriously flawed. The anti vaccine crowd is similar. Luckily sanity has ruled there but they need to to better work on CTE rather than run w a bad paper. It makes it harder on the people doing the good work
Good Lord the stupid is coming out with both barrels firing  
jcn56 : 11/6/2018 12:44 am : link
in this thread. Will Smith going against the Man? The anti-vaxxers? Merrill Hoge?!

Let me guess, some of you guys think that Philip Morris got a bum rap over the whole smoking/cancer thing, right?

All you need to do is follow the money in this one - the NFL knows it has a big problem on it's hands. This isn't a boogeyman, or science run amok trying to pick deep pockets. The NFL has enough money to make shit like that go away quickly and quietly. Instead, numbers in the billions for settlements get thrown around, and the NFL pulls big money from a study because it doesn't like the direction it's heading. All the proof you need is there, you just have to be willing to see it and smart enough to understand it.
RE: Scientific research  
gmenatlarge : 11/6/2018 8:51 am : link
In comment 14165556 Jerry K said:
Quote:
...rarely has all the facts and all the evidence. But to jump from that to the idea that the current research is not valid and there is a "plot to destroy football" is a fantastic leap.

There is strong evidence that repetitive head injuries (not just concussions, but sub-concussive impacts) can lead to CTE. It would be foolish to wait for absolute definitive proof. It makes much more sense to follow the precautionary principle and err on the side of safety and protect people who play sports where there may be blows to the head.

I would also trust medical research more than I trust the NFL, so here's a bit from an article published in the Public Medical Library: "... all individuals with neuropathologically confirmed CTE have a history of repetitive head impacts." They go on to say that this condition may not be sufficient to cause CTE and possible contributing factors need to be studied. Current Understanding of CTE - ( New Window )


+1 and Hoge signing his name to this after his lawsuit just about proves the effects of CTE!!!
RE: No Shit  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/6/2018 10:43 am : link
In comment 14165683 ThatLimerickGuy said:
Quote:
Where is that idiot who the other day in a passing comment I made about CTE decided to get on his moral soapbox and try to shame me about this topic?

This is 2018- media (with an agenda) grabs onto something and pressures the population so hard over it that they basically will something into existence.

When I studied poli sci in the late 90's this phenomena was known as a danger in a political context but it has gotten so bad that everything is infected now.

The science was never solid. Then throw Will Smith into the mix to make that doctor into this sympathetic figure fighting this noble fight against "the man" and it spun out of control.



"That idiot" is right here, bud. And just like every other time you try to take the moral high ground after the fact, you're not even close to representing how things actually played out.
Are you opposed to the safer Rules as well???  
Rafflee : 11/6/2018 6:13 pm : link
The study and discussion have prompted some well intentioned Rules changes that can be improved as time goes by.

That's the real story here---that and the fact that the game is plainly destructive to bodies. Every Game we see a "work time lost injury". The frequency of injuries that cost a player the whole season are very common....and it's not at all rare to see a 23 year old lose a career.

Are you opposed to addressing that?
I absolutely fucking hate these types of articles  
Knineteen : 11/6/2018 10:53 pm : link
OK, so CTE might not be the cause...is he suggesting that repetitive head trauma is a good thing?

I'd rather young people quit this stupid game now, even if it's a misguided decision, rather than mess up their brains while medical research spends 20 years studying the effects.

I don't want to knock Dr. Peter Cummings, but we look to doctors for answers and they just give us a big shoulder-shrug. By all means, please educate us; but if you don't have the answers then I'm going to take your opinion with a grain of salt. Medical science and research has been completely lacking when it comes to the brain. I don't want to hear from medical doctors who know extremely little about the subject.
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