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NFT: Mets talk- Pat Roessler has been fired

DanMetroMan : 11/5/2018 1:34 pm
Bones, has been removed as BP coach but will be given another role.
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RE: I’m in no rush to call any one up  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 10:15 am : link
In comment 14166727 Shecky said:
Quote:
How often is a kids career effed u
Because they waited a month or two too long before he debuted? In a perfect world, your Ml squad is so stacked anyone in the minors has to FORCE their way up, instead of it being handed to them. That’s how it SHOULD be.

It may take some time, but every indication is we are going back to Sandy’s early years when he was actually able to implement. A refocus on ORGANIZATION, and pride of being a Met. A shit ton of INSTRUCTIONALS on the farm. Growth, development an ignorance of what your “stats” say, it what your new age stats are saying. Taking care of the kids nutritionally, exercise, mentally, a winning attitude. Unfortunately A LOT has to be changed on every single level.

The good news, a lot of the talent on the farm will reap the benefits lot since for the most part they are all on the lower levels.


I generally agree, but I also think it should be a case by case basis.

Alonso is 24 years old, this is not rushing a 19 year old through the system.

FA cutoff makes sense to me, that's just good business.

Super 2 depends IMO how the Mets start (and how Alonso starts), but if the Mets wait on Super 2 ignoring a need at the major league level I think that goes beyond good business and falls into the being cheap category.
RE: Shecky  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 10:15 am : link
In comment 14166725 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
I'd be fine with that now, or even at the time, but if the Mets miss the wild card by a game is it still worth it?

if you think the Mets are not wild card contenders sure protect the $8M.


If they miss it by one game, sure impasses. But I can guarantee I’d also be able to go back on the 162 and find at least 2-3 plays each game they coulda, shoulda, woulda done something differently to win the game. So knowing they can spend an extra 15 mins a day in spring training hammering home instructs and win several more games - I’d say the risk of adding Alonso for an extra year is absolutely worth it.

Especially if he is a six win rookie - then I would give u
The WC for an extra year of a star 101 out of 100 times. But I get I’m in the minority in that one.
here's the thing though- we don't know if Alonso is the best 1B option  
Eric on Li : 11/6/2018 10:16 am : link
because we've never seen him at the MLB level and ST is mostly meaningless. Conforto tore the cover off the ball in ST last year and was a proven MLB'er but he still had a terrible April and weak overall first half. I know he was coming back from injury, but obviously in ST that didn't matter.

That's why Alonso should have been called up last year - 2 months of real regular season playing time would have been a big help answering that question. They blew that so now they need to figure out what's best for Alonso's development. For my money that would be getting him off to a hot start in the minors, even if it's just 2 weeks, and then calling him up when it's clear he's a better option than whoever they are playing at the MLB level - whether it's Smith, Bruce, Frazier, whoever.
PJ  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 10:17 am : link
I think we’re on the same page super 2 vs FA cutoff now. Yeah, I think BVW is more than aware that if he “same old cheap Mets” and holds him an extra size weeks for $$ while hurting he team, he will lose his credibility in 1/4 a season, breaking a new Mets GM record lol
I know it's far fetched  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 10:20 am : link
Shecky, but my point with that was "it only costs the team 1 to 2 wins on the field" argument is great until you miss the playoffs by 1 or 2 games.

Obviously there will be games the bullpen blows, a player makes an error to allow the winning run to score, or other events that you can pinpoint as the reason for a loss.

so sure it won't likely be because Alonso was kept down for too long as the reason the Mets miss the playoffs.

I think of this too when people say "at most an MLB manager is estimated to impact 5 wins/losses.

many times those 5 games are the difference between missing and making the playoffs, but that's another tangent I won't go down.

If the Mets are a 70 win team who cares. Keep Alonso down all year. But if they have a good off-season, have a healthy team in April, and get off to a good start, and have a need for power/1B, I'd hate to have Alonso sitting in Syracuse waiting for a day the Mets can save money on a contract in 4 - 6 years.
BVW's early comments (and background as an agent) make me think  
Eric on Li : 11/6/2018 10:24 am : link
he will call Alonso up when it's the right move, even if it's a little bit early. At his advanced age for a high level prospect I don't even think he's going to view it as that controversial. Determining when it's the right move is tough to peg and we just need to see how the offseason shakes out. If they don't add someone like Machado or even Pollock, then it probably increases the chances we see Alonso sooner since there will be a bigger need for a RH bat in the middle of the order.
Here’s the thing with Alonso  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 10:25 am : link
And I hope this sets realistic expectations for everyone. My two personal opinions:
He’s proven time and time again, there no fastballs on this planet that he will have trouble with. And that exclamation point was clearly put on that this week. Unfortunately, with scouting as it is today, it will literally take two weeks MAX before pitchers pick up on this. And he has some serious bat to ball trouble on outside junk. He’s a smart kid and works hard, he will learn. He will adjust. But do you want him doing this in Sept 18 and hitting 138 proving nothing one way or the other about him? Or even April 19? Aaa is the perfect place to learn to hit junk... and continue to work on his D.

Which is the second part. Spring training 18 I thought helped him a lot being around the big guys. But I think an offseason of focus on the kid could really leapfrog his career right now. Send Wright to hang with him a couple days. Let him learn the importance of NUTRITION, his body, flexibility, hard work. Then send Thor down to learn about media, your body, etc. then DeGrom, to learn how to chill, be flexible. Then Frazier, what it’s like to be a pro, and just a good guy, how to extend your career when you aren’t an athletic freak. Sounds childish, but that’s what being a Met should be all about. The more the big leaguers hang with the minor leaguers, the better for everyone. It’s an organization with one goal, period.

As you can tell, I’ve got too much free time this morning lol
Quick fan poll  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 10:30 am : link
Who here, today, would sign up for an 88 win season. McNeil is a 3 win 2b. Rosario is a 3 win SS. Alonso is a 6 win 1B. DG and Thor are 5 win aces. Conforto and Nimmo are 3 win corner OFs. They haven’t traded away one prospect in the minors all season long.

But they miss the one game wild car by one win. If I could 110% guarantee the above scenario. But you have to sign up for it right this second. Who signs up for the above, or start Alonso on day one, crossing your fingers for the best and see how the team finishes. Who signs up for A, who signs up for B?
RE: Quick fan poll  
Metnut : 11/6/2018 10:32 am : link
In comment 14166754 Shecky said:
Quote:
Who here, today, would sign up for an 88 win season. McNeil is a 3 win 2b. Rosario is a 3 win SS. Alonso is a 6 win 1B. DG and Thor are 5 win aces. Conforto and Nimmo are 3 win corner OFs. They haven’t traded away one prospect in the minors all season long.

But they miss the one game wild car by one win. If I could 110% guarantee the above scenario. But you have to sign up for it right this second. Who signs up for the above, or start Alonso on day one, crossing your fingers for the best and see how the team finishes. Who signs up for A, who signs up for B?


I decline.

Let's roll the dice Shecky! Playoffs or bust.
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 10:33 am : link
Really hope they make a push for Andrew Miller. He gutted through knee issues all season because the Indians were contenders. His knee is apparently 100% now... yeah #MetsDoctors but at the right price he'd be a great add

Ike Davis has retired, Reyes plans to play in 2019,... hopefully not for the Mets
RE: Quick fan poll  
Eric on Li : 11/6/2018 10:37 am : link
In comment 14166754 Shecky said:
Quote:
Who here, today, would sign up for an 88 win season. McNeil is a 3 win 2b. Rosario is a 3 win SS. Alonso is a 6 win 1B. DG and Thor are 5 win aces. Conforto and Nimmo are 3 win corner OFs. They haven’t traded away one prospect in the minors all season long.

But they miss the one game wild car by one win. If I could 110% guarantee the above scenario. But you have to sign up for it right this second. Who signs up for the above, or start Alonso on day one, crossing your fingers for the best and see how the team finishes. Who signs up for A, who signs up for B?


I'd sign. Obviously the binary of missing the playoffs would suck, but in many years 88 wins gets you a WC and it would put them in a very good position moving forward to have the young nucleus you described plus the starting rotation.

That said if the performances above didn't win 90+ games the defense must suck, they likely didn't have enough depth behind Plawecki when he got hurt, and probably screwed the pooch in the BP. So even though I'd sign for that scenario I'd probably be bitching on here that BVW made the same mistakes sandy made for 8 years.
Miller  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 10:38 am : link
Sabathia
Grandal

Would be 3 "hopes" for me. I'd love Manny but I'd be beyond stunned.
RE: .  
Eric on Li : 11/6/2018 10:38 am : link
In comment 14166758 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Really hope they make a push for Andrew Miller. He gutted through knee issues all season because the Indians were contenders. His knee is apparently 100% now... yeah #MetsDoctors but at the right price he'd be a great add

Ike Davis has retired, Reyes plans to play in 2019,... hopefully not for the Mets


Agreed. Miller is probably the #1 guy I want. A dominant lefty who doesn't care about his role is a huge and unique piece to find. Miller + Familia would have me very enthused about the direction of this offseason.
RE: .  
Metnut : 11/6/2018 10:39 am : link
In comment 14166758 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Really hope they make a push for Andrew Miller. He gutted through knee issues all season because the Indians were contenders. His knee is apparently 100% now... yeah #MetsDoctors but at the right price he'd be a great add

Ike Davis has retired, Reyes plans to play in 2019,... hopefully not for the Mets


You gotta think Mickey loves Miller right?

Buy-low candidate with really bigtime upside. I mean.. the upside is a top 3 reliever in MLB. Even if he's "only" a top 30 reliever or so you don't hate the deal. I'd love it if we added Miller.
Wait  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 10:40 am : link
a 6 win 1b? lol So rookie year Alonso is the best 1b in baseball? I'll take 1 full year off from BBI if Alonso is worth 6 fWAR this season. There have been 4 total 6+ fWAR 1b seasons since 2015. 2 by Votto, 1 by Freeman, 1 by Goldschmidt.
Miller  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 10:41 am : link
won't be as cheap as some want to believe. I'm sure he'll still get 2 or 3 years at 12-13 per but the k rate was still there. He battled through some knee stuff. Gimmer Miller.
RE: Wait  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 10:42 am : link
In comment 14166771 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
a 6 win 1b? lol So rookie year Alonso is the best 1b in baseball? I'll take 1 full year off from BBI if Alonso is worth 6 fWAR this season. There have been 4 total 6+ fWAR 1b seasons since 2015. 2 by Votto, 1 by Freeman, 1 by Goldschmidt.


HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Finally, someone caught that...
RE: Miller  
Eric on Li : 11/6/2018 10:43 am : link
In comment 14166767 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Sabathia
Grandal

Would be 3 "hopes" for me. I'd love Manny but I'd be beyond stunned.


I like that list. My 3 would be Miller, Familia, then Maldonado or Lucroy or Ramos (assuming they don't have enough $ for Grandal).
RE: Miller  
Eric on Li : 11/6/2018 10:45 am : link
In comment 14166775 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
won't be as cheap as some want to believe. I'm sure he'll still get 2 or 3 years at 12-13 per but the k rate was still there. He battled through some knee stuff. Gimmer Miller.


I'd hope for 2 / 28m with some kind of 3rd year option.

Then hope to get Familia on a longer term but lower aav deal - like 4/40.
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 10:47 am : link
Sabathia over his last 86 starts has a 117 ERA+. The guy can still pitch and has pitched at a high level in the NY market.

solidify the bullpen/lineup and gimme JDG, Thor, Wheeler, Sabathia, Matz as the rotation. Vargas can soak up innings out of the pen if they can't move him.
RE: Wait  
Metnut : 11/6/2018 10:55 am : link
In comment 14166771 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
a 6 win 1b? lol So rookie year Alonso is the best 1b in baseball? I'll take 1 full year off from BBI if Alonso is worth 6 fWAR this season. There have been 4 total 6+ fWAR 1b seasons since 2015. 2 by Votto, 1 by Freeman, 1 by Goldschmidt.


No! If Alonso has a 6 WAR season don't think you're off the hook for the prospect updates!
Sabathia  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 10:56 am : link
is 38 years old. I won't say he's done, because the Mets got good years from Colon and asshole Tom Glavine after that age, but he's not my top choice.

I wouldn't hate it, but I'd prefer a guy less likely to break down.
RE: RE: Wait  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 11:00 am : link
In comment 14166799 Metnut said:
Quote:
In comment 14166771 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


a 6 win 1b? lol So rookie year Alonso is the best 1b in baseball? I'll take 1 full year off from BBI if Alonso is worth 6 fWAR this season. There have been 4 total 6+ fWAR 1b seasons since 2015. 2 by Votto, 1 by Freeman, 1 by Goldschmidt.



No! If Alonso has a 6 WAR season don't think you're off the hook for the prospect updates!


There is no realistic scenario Alonso as a rookie is that good. I like him but Wright had 3 such seasons, Reyes had 0, Bryce Harper has 1, Machado 3. Not one posted such a season as a rookie.
There we have it  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 11:08 am : link
Dan just posted that Alonso will be better than Wright, Harper, Machado, Ruth, Bonds.
And is committed to his 7:30 minors report regardless. It’s in his BBI contract
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 11:20 am : link
Hanigar (previously drafted by the Mets) would be an awesome addition but I assume the price would be sky high. Guy can flat out mash #Mets
/  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 11:23 am : link
Add Hanigar and Alonso to the lineup, + one of the catchers and suddenly the lineup looks pretty, pretty good #Mets
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 11:42 am : link
I'd give up Gimenez and one of the P as headliners pretty easily for him without thinking twice. Team controlled through 2022.
RE: .  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 11:46 am : link
In comment 14166877 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
I'd give up Gimenez and one of the P as headliners pretty easily for him without thinking twice. Team controlled through 2022.


Someone setup the bat signal for Capone and get it done!!!!
RE: RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 11:47 am : link
In comment 14166882 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 14166877 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


I'd give up Gimenez and one of the P as headliners pretty easily for him without thinking twice. Team controlled through 2022.



Someone setup the bat signal for Capone and get it done!!!!



I'd like to hang onto Alonso because we don't have another 1b option and he's MLB ready but I'd be willing to deal any of the other prospects in the system. He's exactly the line of bat you add with Alonso to Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil etc that changes the lineup + ideally you pay for one of the 2 catchers.
Anyone disagrees with Dans plan?  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 11:56 am : link
Add two 6 win bats to the lineup in one offseason ;)
Does it concern anyone else  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 12:29 pm : link
That Amero is returning?
And it’s known before Ricco confirmed?
I'm fine with Dan's  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 12:29 pm : link
plan if it's the only option to add a solid bat (aka no Machado), but I prefer to not trade Gimenez for a 27 year old coming off a career year as my plan A.



RE: I'm fine with Dan's  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 12:31 pm : link
In comment 14166942 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
plan if it's the only option to add a solid bat (aka no Machado), but I prefer to not trade Gimenez for a 27 year old coming off a career year as my plan A.




Wouldn’t a trade like that simply increase the odds of the Mets making a huge splash like a Machado?
Should the Mets  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 12:31 pm : link
be in on Kikuchi if he posts or are the concerns about his shoulder too much to seriously consider him?
RE: RE: I'm fine with Dan's  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 12:32 pm : link
In comment 14166946 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 14166942 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


plan if it's the only option to add a solid bat (aka no Machado), but I prefer to not trade Gimenez for a 27 year old coming off a career year as my plan A.






Wouldn’t a trade like that simply increase the odds of the Mets making a huge splash like a Machado?


Would it? I kind of viewed it as either or, but if it increases the chance of a Machado pursuit I'm all for it.
RE: I'm fine with Dan's  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 12:34 pm : link
In comment 14166942 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
plan if it's the only option to add a solid bat (aka no Machado), but I prefer to not trade Gimenez for a 27 year old coming off a career year as my plan A.




You are really underrating Hanigar. Guy is the goods. Hanigar 135 OPS+ since 2017. Hits both righties and lefties well. .914 OPS away from Seattle
PJ  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 12:37 pm : link
Well, just think it through.
You trade future for today?
Who happens to be cost controlled for a looooong time, saving future payroll.
Wouldn’t that not only make sense then to increase payroll elsewhere, but if you’re going for it today - sign a big free agent
The problem with a big free agent is after 3/4 years you are at risk, the trade off is you are going for it the next 3-4 years.

All I’m saying is you’re going half ass if you foolishly make a big trade and don’t take the next step too.
For  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 12:38 pm : link
context Manny Machado since 2017 127 OPS+, since 2016 128, Cespedes career OPS+ 128. Hanigar is beyond legit. He's a MASHER.

Hanigar, Ramos or Grandal + Alonso and suddenly the Mets lineup looks strong 1-8 (assuming Rosario 2nd have is legit and McNeil is at least solid)
Hanigar  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 12:40 pm : link
is team controlled through 2022

In terms of wRC+ since 2017 he ranks 18th in all of baseball, wOBA 23rd.
RE: RE: I'm fine with Dan's  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 12:42 pm : link
In comment 14166954 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14166942 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


plan if it's the only option to add a solid bat (aka no Machado), but I prefer to not trade Gimenez for a 27 year old coming off a career year as my plan A.






You are really underrating Hanigar. Guy is the goods. Hanigar 135 OPS+ since 2017. Hits both righties and lefties well. .914 OPS away from Seattle


He's played one full season.

I see the results, I know he's performed well, but it's one full season.
Keep in mind, I’m a huge “hold the prospects” guy  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 12:42 pm : link
For the next 6-12 months.
Their value will not only greater than, by far, but there will be more to trade.
Are we a contender? Or still an underperforming tease. We won’t know till mid season, no matter what we do this offseason.
We could as easily be sellers once again as buyers.

I’d prefer if we are going balls to the wall to sign Machado/Harper and just say fuck it. Don’t half ass it. If we are adding, then ADD. Incremental adds only lead fur5er to my above uncertainty. Do we really want to add another Bruce to this equation?
RE: PJ  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 12:43 pm : link
In comment 14166959 Shecky said:
Quote:
Well, just think it through.
You trade future for today?
Who happens to be cost controlled for a looooong time, saving future payroll.
Wouldn’t that not only make sense then to increase payroll elsewhere, but if you’re going for it today - sign a big free agent
The problem with a big free agent is after 3/4 years you are at risk, the trade off is you are going for it the next 3-4 years.

All I’m saying is you’re going half ass if you foolishly make a big trade and don’t take the next step too.


Makes sense, but Gimenez is also cost controlled for a long time. My point was not about Haniger, but more about not wanting Haniger to be the only move or a move instead of Machado.

I’m stating it now  
Shecky : 11/6/2018 12:44 pm : link
If we miss the wild card by one game, im blaming YOU for turning down this hypothetical trade ;)
RE: I’m stating it now  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 12:44 pm : link
In comment 14166975 Shecky said:
Quote:
If we miss the wild card by one game, im blaming YOU for turning down this hypothetical trade ;)


Well I'd have Alonso start opening day, giving us back that one game.
Jeff  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 12:45 pm : link
Sullivan has Hanigar as a top 25 offensive player in baseball. His 2017 rate stats were nearly identical to his 2018 full-season

"Another item is to prorate each player’s previous season to 600 plate appearances to see if anyone pops up if given more playing time. With Haniger’s nearly identical pro-rated 2017 and 2018 seasons, his 2017 season would have stood out"
RE: Jeff  
pjcas18 : 11/6/2018 12:55 pm : link
In comment 14166978 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Sullivan has Hanigar as a top 25 offensive player in baseball. His 2017 rate stats were nearly identical to his 2018 full-season

"Another item is to prorate each player’s previous season to 600 plate appearances to see if anyone pops up if given more playing time. With Haniger’s nearly identical pro-rated 2017 and 2018 seasons, his 2017 season would have stood out"


I'm sure he'll have a great career. I'm just a little leery of players who at 27 have career years when they couldn't crack lineups consistently before then and though I don't place a ton of stock in them, having never appeared on any prospect rankings.

That has to be rare, no? to go from not even on a top 100 prospect list to top 25 offensive player in MLB in two years?

I'm sure I'm just being cynical.

And why would Seattle do this and not just keep him?

top 25 offensive player in baseball cost controlled for 5 years for Gimenez and a pitcher (Kay or Dunn?)
RE: RE: Jeff  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 1:01 pm : link
In comment 14167002 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14166978 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Sullivan has Hanigar as a top 25 offensive player in baseball. His 2017 rate stats were nearly identical to his 2018 full-season

"Another item is to prorate each player’s previous season to 600 plate appearances to see if anyone pops up if given more playing time. With Haniger’s nearly identical pro-rated 2017 and 2018 seasons, his 2017 season would have stood out"



I'm sure he'll have a great career. I'm just a little leery of players who at 27 have career years when they couldn't crack lineups consistently before then and though I don't place a ton of stock in them, having never appeared on any prospect rankings.

That has to be rare, no? to go from not even on a top 100 prospect list to top 25 offensive player in MLB in two years?

I'm sure I'm just being cynical.

And why would Seattle do this and not just keep him?

top 25 offensive player in baseball cost controlled for 5 years for Gimenez and a pitcher (Kay or Dunn?)


Passan claims the Mariners are considering trading off all of their assets and setting up for a multi-year rebuild. If that's the case a 28 year old is probably not part of the plans if they can cash in. Same with Seager (though he's coming off a down year and makes decent coin so less value) as well as Paxton who is quietly already 30 (but very good). If they are going to do this (and be bad for 2-3-4 seasons) ala the White Sox then yeah Hanigar's age and cheap years have less value given his age vs. a guy like Gimenez + say Peterson and another piece.
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/6/2018 1:10 pm : link
Ottavino is terrifying to me. 33 next season. Awful in 2017. I know he had a great season but the walk rate, age, resume... seems like the kind of signing the Mets always end up on the wrong end of.
Heyman  
GF1080 : 11/6/2018 1:27 pm : link
Heyman said they're keeping Haniger because he's still cheap.
RE: .  
Eric on Li : 11/6/2018 1:55 pm : link
In comment 14167043 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Ottavino is terrifying to me. 33 next season. Awful in 2017. I know he had a great season but the walk rate, age, resume... seems like the kind of signing the Mets always end up on the wrong end of.


yup he reminds me of Swarzak. I'd much rather spend the money on a multi-year proven commodities like Familia/Miller.
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