Not particularly buying the Mets trading one of their C's but even TDA represents an upgrade for the Mariners and DiPoto likes to make deals...TDA for Nick Vincent might make some sense #Mets
and if they cost $25m in AAV so be it. That might mean we need to settle for a cheaper catcher like Lucroy or Maldonado and that's ok with me. Plawecki has potential and as long as we are protected with a good defensive and reliably competent partner (NOT TDA) I think more than 1 glaring weakness is solved well.
Nicasio is quietly very effective (for his role). 2015 2.83 FIP, 2016 3.78, 2017 2.98, 2018 2.99. I think he'd be a solid add for a team that could use multiple solid arms. Throws hard. I'd swap TDA for Nicasio. I think he's easily worth the 5.5 million for 1 year in added payroll. That's chump change in todays game.
agrees with me Ramos should be the #1 C target. I hope Shecky is clutching his pearls lol
Limited upside but what does Luke Maile cost the Mets? Toronto is deep in catching options. Maile #24 in pitch framing in 2017, moved up to #5 in 2018 #Mets
Cervelli is a guy I'd call about, framing #'s don't love him however.
For my money the most underrated RP option is Robertson. 2011-2018 he's posted sub-3.00 FIP's all but 1 season (2016), closing experience, SU experience. #Mets
I like Robertson - he's done well with the yankees
I'd still prefer Familia from the right side, but if they go with 2 righties I'd be fine with those 2. Probably the 2 safest/best value pickups. Miller's versatility and upside are intriguing though.
You have to take a long, hard look at Miller's medicals.
mentioned Joe Kelly the other day as a guy who might have just emerged in Boston. I thought he did well to finish the year, velocity was up and had a couple saves
Could be a nice cheap 3rd piece to add next to closer/setup.
But I agree with the $160m total number.
They're currently at $92m (incl. Wright/Cespedes).
They're projected to have ~45m in arbitration awards.
So current projected total payroll = $137m.
If they non-tender or trade Flores + TDA they can save almost $9m.
So that gets the ~$30m to spend.
I think it would be ridiculous even by Wilpon standards to count Wright ($15m) in the payroll fully since he has admittedly played his last game and they will get significant insurance $. It's almost as silly with Cespedes ($29m) for this upcoming year, who likely won't play and will also bring them back major insurance $. So that's where I'm more aggressive thinking they should reinvest at least $20-30m of that insurance money into the actual team on the field opening day. Even if they only spend that money as short term deals since both are only on the books for 2 more seasons.
So that would bring the total up closer to $50m-60m in new acquisitions of which I'd break down $25-30m in AAV to BP, $10-15m AAV to C, and then some other shorter term pickups. If Machado becomes a possibility, obviously you scale back everything else accordingly.
here's the part of the equation that I think accurately shows why trading for him is a bad idea - the bulk of the value you are trading for is in monetary savings relative to performance, not performance on the field.
Quote:
If we use round numbers and say Realmuto is worth $90 million and is getting paid $15 million, thats a $75 million asset value, maybe a hair lower, as both numbers are on the aggressive side. If I asked you which prospects in baseball are definitely worth more than $70-75 million and you said only Vladimir Guerrero Jr., then you would be correct. Thats the only one.
Every other prospect in baseball should be on the table, but you can realistically eliminate a few more simply because the clubs dont seem inclined to push all their chips in right now (the Twins with Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis, the Reds with Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammell), or they have multiple prospects just below this level, so they can still give a market value offer while holding back their top prospect (the Padres with Fernando Tatis Jr., the White Sox with Eloy Jimenez, the Rays with Wander Franco, the Braves with Cristian Pache, and the Astros with Kyle Tucker).
This is also a preview of a new tool they are creating to evaluate trades which should means we are about to have a new toy to waste hundreds of hours on. So You Want to Trade for J.T. Realmuto - ( New Window )
But see Z accusing me of some shit lol
Ill be brief. Jeffy had major hard on for Realmuto. Not everyone did, but he sure did
Marlins could ask for the world, but they werent getting it then. Not even close. Today, very different story. Theyre asking for the stars and the moon - and May wind up with stars. Personally, think thats a massive mistake - but 5ats personal.
Gimenez a year ago was virtually an afterthought, not a potential future star. Just potential. His value has grown tremendously, and will continue to do so.
My points for being adamant the cost of Realmuto was less than Gimenez was Gimenez was better than people thought, Realmuto is NOT. a GameChanger, if Marlins were moving him the cost shouldnt be as high as Jeffy is willing to go. And dont think articles dont get written within hours when you have your conversations on here. Lazy, lazy writers...
Lol. Definitely wasn't accusing you of anything, although I think your joking, but more just remembering a conversation we had this past season. Thanks for confirming that conversation happened and backing me up. I was beginning to think I might have been going crazy. ;) Your explanation also makes sense.
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Martin Maldonado cant hit, is 32, and his defense tanked last year, so hes a perfect Met
he was +DRS and his overall fangraphs rating was similar to 2017. His DRS fell from a ridiculous +22 the year before so maybe that's what he means? Mark Simon mentioned him as a possible GG snub a couple days ago so comparatively he's still 1 of the better defensive catchers in baseball.
he was +DRS and his overall fangraphs rating was similar to 2017. His DRS fell from a ridiculous +22 the year before so maybe that's what he means? Mark Simon mentioned him as a possible GG snub a couple days ago so comparatively he's still 1 of the better defensive catchers in baseball.
Eric all due respect he backs it up-
arrett Seidler
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Replying to @WexlerRules
yep, from about 27 framing runs above average to about 6; framing also tends to not age so well which came up in Maldonados trade TA by @euqubud
he was +DRS and his overall fangraphs rating was similar to 2017. His DRS fell from a ridiculous +22 the year before so maybe that's what he means? Mark Simon mentioned him as a possible GG snub a couple days ago so comparatively he's still 1 of the better defensive catchers in baseball.
Eric all due respect he backs it up-
arrett Seidler
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3h3 hours ago
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Replying to @WexlerRules
yep, from about 27 framing runs above average to about 6; framing also tends to not age so well which came up in Maldonados trade TA by @euqubud
Right but is the 27 the outlier or the 6 compared to the rest of his career? I don't know the answer just saying it strikes me as hyperbole.
he may not be as good as he was at his peak but he's still elite throwing (which would be a big help given our weakness slowing down runners) and grades out positively, at least across all fangraphs metrics. You just have to sign him to be a role player and others to be impact players.
Sounds like the Mets are literally checking in on everyone
@MBrownstein89
5m5 minutes ago
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Great point here. Nido posted a better pop time to 2B (1.94 to Maldonado's 1.97), & posted 3.5 framing runs in 1,473 framing chances compared to Maldonado's 5.9 framing runs in 7,057 framing chances in '18.
Not to mention who you have Nido under control for 5 more seasons. #Mets
reportedly available. He had such a disaster of a year (by his standards, would have been great extrapolated over a full season by Mets standards) I wonder if change of scenery would be good and if a bounce back is likely or if he's damaged goods with the shoulder injury.
Definitely more expensive than I'd want to pay if he's healthy, but he's "just" 27 all of next year, so only a year older than Machado, under team control for 3 seasons, and a 3B fit is better on the Mets than SS like Machado wants to play.
reportedly available. He had such a disaster of a year (by his standards, would have been great extrapolated over a full season by Mets standards) I wonder if change of scenery would be good and if a bounce back is likely or if he's damaged goods with the shoulder injury.
Definitely more expensive than I'd want to pay if he's healthy, but he's "just" 27 all of next year, so only a year older than Machado, under team control for 3 seasons, and a 3B fit is better on the Mets than SS like Machado wants to play.
I wonder where the bidding starts for him.
Eno Sarris says its just due diligence and that Theo would need a Godfather offer so this will be a story people yap about but likely nothing comes of it.
1 of conforto/nimmo + wheeler + top prospect? Cubs can move Heyward to CF. Highly suspect they wont move him, but he'd qualify as an mvp caliber building block worthy of a massive return. Talk about solving the 3b/RH power issue.
1 of conforto/nimmo + wheeler + top prospect? Cubs can move Heyward to CF. Highly suspect they wont move him, but he'd qualify as an mvp caliber building block worthy of a massive return. Talk about solving the 3b/RH power issue.
Cubs would pass. Wheeler only has .5 of dominance and is a FA after the year so they are getting a "top" prospect and one of Conforto or Nimmo + 1 year of Wheeler. Not nearly enough for a recent NL MVP. Cubs aren't tearing it down. They are simply speaking to teams about players. Think Syndergaard level prices.
1 of conforto/nimmo + wheeler + top prospect? Cubs can move Heyward to CF. Highly suspect they wont move him, but he'd qualify as an mvp caliber building block worthy of a massive return. Talk about solving the 3b/RH power issue.
Cubs would pass. Wheeler only has .5 of dominance and is a FA after the year so they are getting a "top" prospect and one of Conforto or Nimmo + 1 year of Wheeler. Not nearly enough for a recent NL MVP. Cubs aren't tearing it down. They are simply speaking to teams about players. Think Syndergaard level prices.
syndergaard for bryant is interesting. I'd do that i think.
Weve never operated with untouchables, he said. It sends the wrong message. Given what were trying to accomplish, it would be virtually impossible to envision the deal that would make sense to move them. I just dont believe in untouchables. Why limit yourself?
Not sure what it is, I want to love the guy, but it doesn't seem like he's improving from what we saw as a rookie at 22 years old. And that's fine, he's a great pitcher.
After that rookie season, I thought he'd be a perennial CY Young candidate, but he seems to have plateaued. Granted, it's a nice place to plateau, but IMO for a player like Bryant, he's a guy I'd consider moving.
but I wouldn't want to add much more than Syndergaard. Maybe Dom Smith or Kay/Dunn, but not any of higher ceiling guys.
Cost control lines up, but Syndergaard gets paid less.
I agree PJ - even if Thor may be harder to find, pitchers break
i'd take comparable value in the more durable player.
JDG - Wheeler - Lugo - Matz is still pretty good, then you go out and sign a starter. Even the top starters on the market are expected to get 1/3 of what Machado/Harper project to get
But I agree with DMM this is probably a lot of nothing.
I'm not saying they will, I'm saying they should. It's been my off-season plan all along.
I'd even consider Kimbrel and Familia.
To recap:
1. Sign the best two bullpen arms available/reasonable. not Swarzak/Ramos, but legit end of the game bullpen arms.
2. Add a legit starting pitcher. Names like Corbin, Gonzalez, even Keuchel, Ryu or Morton
3. Fix the D where it can be fixed (1B), trade Bruce, etc. in the name of fixing the D.
TDA to Seattle for one of their RP makes a lot of sense.
Too bad we couldn't have packed him with something for Mallex Smith.
Rays just traded for Zunino
Limited upside but what does Luke Maile cost the Mets? Toronto is deep in catching options. Maile #24 in pitch framing in 2017, moved up to #5 in 2018 #Mets
Cervelli is a guy I'd call about, framing #'s don't love him however.
Quote:
Id say the Rays are the favorites
Rays just traded for Zunino
WHAT?!?!?
Fuuuuuuucccccckkkkkkkkkk
Quote:
In comment 14168848 Shecky said:
Quote:
Id say the Rays are the favorites
Rays just traded for Zunino
WHAT?!?!?
Fuuuuuuucccccckkkkkkkkkk
for Mallex Smith - who would have been a perfect type of acquisition for what we need.
I like Miller and I'd be all over that but I also think they can find a lefty via trade.
Could be a nice cheap 3rd piece to add next to closer/setup.
It was 150 last year. I'm going to go with roughly 162 with 30 million spent on new players
They're currently at $92m (incl. Wright/Cespedes).
They're projected to have ~45m in arbitration awards.
So current projected total payroll = $137m.
If they non-tender or trade Flores + TDA they can save almost $9m.
So that gets the ~$30m to spend.
I think it would be ridiculous even by Wilpon standards to count Wright ($15m) in the payroll fully since he has admittedly played his last game and they will get significant insurance $. It's almost as silly with Cespedes ($29m) for this upcoming year, who likely won't play and will also bring them back major insurance $. So that's where I'm more aggressive thinking they should reinvest at least $20-30m of that insurance money into the actual team on the field opening day. Even if they only spend that money as short term deals since both are only on the books for 2 more seasons.
So that would bring the total up closer to $50m-60m in new acquisitions of which I'd break down $25-30m in AAV to BP, $10-15m AAV to C, and then some other shorter term pickups. If Machado becomes a possibility, obviously you scale back everything else accordingly.
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The Mets have reportedly expressed interest in Yasmani Grandal https://on.sny.tv/2DtKGI6
Every other prospect in baseball should be on the table, but you can realistically eliminate a few more simply because the clubs dont seem inclined to push all their chips in right now (the Twins with Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis, the Reds with Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammell), or they have multiple prospects just below this level, so they can still give a market value offer while holding back their top prospect (the Padres with Fernando Tatis Jr., the White Sox with Eloy Jimenez, the Rays with Wander Franco, the Braves with Cristian Pache, and the Astros with Kyle Tucker).
This is also a preview of a new tool they are creating to evaluate trades which should means we are about to have a new toy to waste hundreds of hours on.
So You Want to Trade for J.T. Realmuto - ( New Window )
Where will Manny Machado sign this offseason? - ( New Window )
Ill be brief. Jeffy had major hard on for Realmuto. Not everyone did, but he sure did
Marlins could ask for the world, but they werent getting it then. Not even close. Today, very different story. Theyre asking for the stars and the moon - and May wind up with stars. Personally, think thats a massive mistake - but 5ats personal.
Gimenez a year ago was virtually an afterthought, not a potential future star. Just potential. His value has grown tremendously, and will continue to do so.
My points for being adamant the cost of Realmuto was less than Gimenez was Gimenez was better than people thought, Realmuto is NOT. a GameChanger, if Marlins were moving him the cost shouldnt be as high as Jeffy is willing to go. And dont think articles dont get written within hours when you have your conversations on here. Lazy, lazy writers...
Lol. Definitely wasn't accusing you of anything, although I think your joking, but more just remembering a conversation we had this past season. Thanks for confirming that conversation happened and backing me up. I was beginning to think I might have been going crazy. ;) Your explanation also makes sense.
Ramos, Grandal, Call the Pirates about Cervelli
Seidler doesn;t like that move. Said his framing fell off and that doesn't improve with age
@jaseidler
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Martin Maldonado cant hit, is 32, and his defense tanked last year, so hes a perfect Met
Eric all due respect he backs it up-
arrett Seidler
@jaseidler
3h3 hours ago
More
Replying to @WexlerRules
yep, from about 27 framing runs above average to about 6; framing also tends to not age so well which came up in Maldonados trade TA by @euqubud
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
he was +DRS and his overall fangraphs rating was similar to 2017. His DRS fell from a ridiculous +22 the year before so maybe that's what he means? Mark Simon mentioned him as a possible GG snub a couple days ago so comparatively he's still 1 of the better defensive catchers in baseball.
Eric all due respect he backs it up-
arrett Seidler
@jaseidler
3h3 hours ago
More
Replying to @WexlerRules
yep, from about 27 framing runs above average to about 6; framing also tends to not age so well which came up in Maldonados trade TA by @euqubud
Right but is the 27 the outlier or the 6 compared to the rest of his career? I don't know the answer just saying it strikes me as hyperbole.
Link - ( New Window )
@MBrownstein89
5m5 minutes ago
More Mathew Brownstein Retweeted Mets Daddy
Great point here. Nido posted a better pop time to 2B (1.94 to Maldonado's 1.97), & posted 3.5 framing runs in 1,473 framing chances compared to Maldonado's 5.9 framing runs in 7,057 framing chances in '18.
Not to mention who you have Nido under control for 5 more seasons. #Mets
Definitely more expensive than I'd want to pay if he's healthy, but he's "just" 27 all of next year, so only a year older than Machado, under team control for 3 seasons, and a 3B fit is better on the Mets than SS like Machado wants to play.
I wonder where the bidding starts for him.
Definitely more expensive than I'd want to pay if he's healthy, but he's "just" 27 all of next year, so only a year older than Machado, under team control for 3 seasons, and a 3B fit is better on the Mets than SS like Machado wants to play.
I wonder where the bidding starts for him.
Eno Sarris says its just due diligence and that Theo would need a Godfather offer so this will be a story people yap about but likely nothing comes of it.
Cubs would pass. Wheeler only has .5 of dominance and is a FA after the year so they are getting a "top" prospect and one of Conforto or Nimmo + 1 year of Wheeler. Not nearly enough for a recent NL MVP. Cubs aren't tearing it down. They are simply speaking to teams about players. Think Syndergaard level prices.
Quote:
1 of conforto/nimmo + wheeler + top prospect? Cubs can move Heyward to CF. Highly suspect they wont move him, but he'd qualify as an mvp caliber building block worthy of a massive return. Talk about solving the 3b/RH power issue.
Cubs would pass. Wheeler only has .5 of dominance and is a FA after the year so they are getting a "top" prospect and one of Conforto or Nimmo + 1 year of Wheeler. Not nearly enough for a recent NL MVP. Cubs aren't tearing it down. They are simply speaking to teams about players. Think Syndergaard level prices.
syndergaard for bryant is interesting. I'd do that i think.
Weve never operated with untouchables, he said. It sends the wrong message. Given what were trying to accomplish, it would be virtually impossible to envision the deal that would make sense to move them. I just dont believe in untouchables. Why limit yourself?
Not sure what it is, I want to love the guy, but it doesn't seem like he's improving from what we saw as a rookie at 22 years old. And that's fine, he's a great pitcher.
After that rookie season, I thought he'd be a perennial CY Young candidate, but he seems to have plateaued. Granted, it's a nice place to plateau, but IMO for a player like Bryant, he's a guy I'd consider moving.
but I wouldn't want to add much more than Syndergaard. Maybe Dom Smith or Kay/Dunn, but not any of higher ceiling guys.
Cost control lines up, but Syndergaard gets paid less.
JDG - Wheeler - Lugo - Matz is still pretty good, then you go out and sign a starter. Even the top starters on the market are expected to get 1/3 of what Machado/Harper project to get
But I agree with DMM this is probably a lot of nothing.