NFT: Yanks Talk - 11/12/18 - Looking into Machado

*if the market doesn't get out of hand.

You know his agent is doing damage control. But once he's signed by a team for ten years, they're stuck with him.

Keuchel wants to shave his beard.

that Machado would be the first move for the Yanks, if they intend on doing it at all.

It opens up the SP trade negotiations a lot if they know that trading Andujar doesn't create a big hole. Making the trade first hurts leverage w Machado.

Of course, there exists an outcome where both Machado and Miggy are NYY next season. (feels unlikely to me, but that's strictly an opinion/hunch).

I’d prefer Harper. He’s a more prolific hitter, although Machado AT THIRD BASE, is a superstar.

In comment 14172766 MattyKid said:

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Keuchel wants to shave his beard.

I took that to mean he was sending a message to the Yankees

In comment 14172860 Beer Man said:

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In comment 14172766 MattyKid said: Quote: Keuchel wants to shave his beard. I took that to mean he was sending a message to the Yankees

I’m lukewarm on Keuchel. If he willing to sign for 3 years then OK, but his career peak is in the past.

Starting Pitching, starting Pitching and contact hitters. we have enough guys that can go deep.

Kluber now has me enticed, depending on the cost...

Manny is a lifetime .282 batter, .335 OBP and .822 OPS...at 3rd base he is an All Star.

anti NY bias

Horseshit. Andujar got robbed.

I don't want Keuchel either. Don't like where his numbers are going and he just doesn't instill confidence.

But I simply would not give the guy more than 3 years. 3 years $45M would be an acceptable price and term as far as I’m concerned, but I have little doubt he’ll get more than that.

But the MLB free agent market is weird, you never know.

because I don't want to continue on a thread about the abomination that was the ALROY vote.

I like him. I think he's a solid #3 who will eat innings. 23/34 starts this year went at least 6, only 3 were under 5 IP and that included the second to last game of the season when they were on cruise control. For comparison, only 11 of Sabathia's 29 starts went 6 or more. Keuchel is also a good ground ball guy with a reasonable HR rate, and he wants to be here.

The issue with Keuchel is the ask. If it's the forecast 4/$80 or even 5 years, that's way too long. But if it's 4/$65 or even 3/$60 sure. I just don't think we'll be that fortunate.

big contract and immediately falls off a cliff. I know you have data that contradicts that, but an aging junkballer sets off my spidey sense.

and he'll be a 4-5 at the end of the deal.

In comment 14176232 Greg from LI said:

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big contract and immediately falls off a cliff. I know you have data that contradicts that, but an aging junkballer sets off my spidey sense.

As a Yankees fan it's hard not to be triggered at the thought FA pitchers in general.

To me, the thing that gives me some comfort with Keuchel is the low reliance on velocity, ability to limit hard contact, "crafty left-hander" approach, and etc. The batted ball profile is a great fit for YS.

Not a great data point to rely on, but I can't help but think about how soul-crushing it's been to watch him frustrate the shit out of NYY hitters with soft grounders and pop-ups in huge games.

Of course, the injury history is what gives me pause. If it weren't for that, I'd really be banging the drum.

is a three year deal, even for big money, with one or even two vesting options based on innings pitched and effectiveness.

hopefully they can get two starters to put them over the top

both stateside and Dominican.

Seigler is getting rave reviews for his maturity and his ability to handle pitchers.

Breaux is getting rave reviews for his bat.

Kevin Alcantara (2018 big-$ IFA sign) is turning heads in the DR. Tall, lanky CF already making loud contact.

Ditto Alexander Vargas, a Cuban SS they signed this year, who is getting high marks for his feet and his glove but whose bat is still pretty light.

Antonio Gomez may be the next big IFA C prospect, a Venezuelan high-$ sign drawing favorable comps to Luis Torrens at the same age.

So a lot to like.

Tampa 2nd half if he does well? 3 years from MLB on the fast track?

Seigler's defense is likely to keep him moving even if the bat lags. Breaux is the opposite, by most accounts a special bat that will force the issue even if the defense lags.

which will suck

I saw Florial in the all-star game, that’s about it.

In comment 14176964 Jim in Hoboken said:

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I saw Florial in the all-star game, that’s about it.

I don't get that excited about the AFL results.

Just as a point in reference, Cody Carroll was dominant in the AFL last winter and was the Yanks star performer there. He ended up being just ok last year before being shipped to the O's in the Zach Britton trade- and was obliterated in his time in the bigs.

For me, the fact that Thairo Estrada was able to play after missing the majority of the season was the main takeaway. He could be a dark horse contender to be part of the Yankees in 2019 with his ability to play 2B, SS and 3B- and has a decent bat (not on Torres level, but good).

Florial with the same reviews. Very toolsy, a lot of swing and miss, if it ever clicks he could be special. Steven Sensley with okay results, has been playing some 1B too. A couple under the radar relievers doing well, specifically Matt Wivinis. But not the best group they've sent out.

option at 2B. I was confident Andujar could be another Cano, underrated with the bat while in the minors, but he arrived much faster and far exceeded my expectations this year. Estrada doesn’t have that kind of hit tool but I feel he’s underrated as a prospect.

Stats don’t matter in the AFL, but to be recognized in a league full of toolsy players is not a bad thing.

and his hitting hasn't really looked all the way back this year. He certainly could contribute but it's pretty risky to pencil him in for a contribution.

However, given his prior performance and the hope that he is able to get some winter ball action in to prep for 2019, I would not discount his chances of playing in NY sometime in 2019. The Yanks infield situation is as unsettled as it has been in some time, both at the starter and reserve spots.

Estrada has positional flexibility with game experience at 2B, SS and 3B. His bat is not going to be All Star levels like Torres, but prior to this season lost to injury, he showed OBP skills, some moderate SB speed, a little bit of power and could carry a decent BA.

At worst, he could take a utility spot if the Yanks think they can improve on Torreyes or if someone gets injured. At best, he could push for the job at 2B if Torres were to be moved to SS. However, given the long layoff, I don't think it is realistic to expect that to happen in spring training. Maybe by June or so, if he returns to prior levels of performance.

Cashman on Boomer and Gio this morning on the way to work and he clearly stated his mission goal of this off-season is to bring in two front line of rotation starters (his words, not mine). I know he has said before they are looking to bring in more than one pitcher but I feel like this was the first time he said specifically he is going to bring in two top starters this off-season. This guy's track record is that when he says something of that sort, he does it. Does Happ qualify as a top of the rotation pitcher? I don't really think so. The only guy on free agency you might put into that category is Corbin so I think that line pretty much tells you that there will be a trade for one of the top pitchers available + likely signing Corbin. I try not to read too much into these things but Cashman is not one to mince words.

I assume their desire is to sign one and trade for one. They don't want to give out multiple 5+ year deals because it'll sap their flexibility, and they don't want to empty the farm for multiple top guys. So I could see a Corbin and a trade, or I could see a trade for a Kluber or Paxton and then a Happ signing. I would be much more surprised to see both a Corbin and a Keuchel signing.

coming back next year. He isn't going to demand crazy money, and he is a solid Boston killer (Minus the playoff game).

The Yanks could do worse off as a 3rd or 4th guy in a rotation.

but it'll be considerably less crazy than Corbin.

to say he could be at 2B next year with Torres at SS and Andujar at 3B.
Could be that neither Machado or Harper get tapped and they sign Corbin (or Happ) and trade for Kluber or Paxton.

So:
Hicks CF
Judge RF
Andujar 3B
Stanton DH
Sanchez C
Voit 1B
Torres SS
Estrada 2B (FA?)
Gardner/Frazier LF

or a guy like Walker or Daniel Murphy could be attractive on a one year deal.

In comment 14177555 Dunedin81 said:

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or a guy like Walker or Daniel Murphy could be attractive on a one year deal.

I thought about Walker. Murphy's left bat would be useful. I would love to see Wade get a shot, he has good AAA numbers that just don't seem to translate to MLB. In fact I would really love for Wade to step up.

The more I look, the more Didi's injury leaves a hole as dumb as that sounds.

Are you getting the feeling that Harper and Machado are not on the Yanks agenda?

to suggest any interest in Harper. A few whispers regarding Manny, though that could be his agent trying to drum up a bidding war. If I had to guess, I'd say they're going to see if Machado's ask comes down to a place where they're comfortable.

I could see him forcing the issue and certainly his speed can impact a game. I just can't see them going into a season counting on him (or Estrada, or Torreyes) to be an everyday 2B. More likely they bring in a vet as the default plan and see if one of those kids can hit enough to merit regular at bats.

In comment 14177567 Dunedin81 said:

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to suggest any interest in Harper. A few whispers regarding Manny, though that could be his agent trying to drum up a bidding war. If I had to guess, I'd say they're going to see if Machado's ask comes down to a place where they're comfortable.

I know they want 10 yrs or more. I would not go more than 7, although Harper's bat will probably remain good for 10. But neither will want to look for a contract when they are 33 y/o.
Of course without an open bidding war the numbers may be lower(not much). Philly may take the Yanks spot as the one flaunting $$$. I never really was hot on Harper, but if he could play 1B, that would be very big. AT 6'4" that is a nice target.
Was pretty in on Machado, but the cheap plays and the "I don't hustle" is an eye opener and could lead to poor play past 30 when natural ability tends to wain.

he's a legit 6 WAR SS or 3B (3 out of 4 years, 4 out of 6) and those players don't grow on trees. Didi has been fantastic but he has averaged just 3.3 WAR over the last four years. The hustle concerns are what they are, and to say what he said about it calls into question his maturity. But he's easily a Top 10 player in baseball, at his best probably a Top 5.

Hal makes enough $$ so he (and we fans) shouldn't worry about what these megastars get paid. But those huge never ending contracts handcuff teams. I have a feeling that Stanton may opt out in 2020, so his number would go away, but Judge, Sevy and Sanchez come due soon enough.
Cashman has a pretty big juggling act coming soon.

I would love Manny, in truth. I think being in the right locker room could straighten him out (Judge, Didi, Stanton, Gardner).
Manny, Kluber(or Paxton) and either Happ(or Corbin) and I am fine.

In comment 14177555 Dunedin81 said:

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or a guy like Walker or Daniel Murphy could be attractive on a one year deal.

I know the spray charts say Murphy wouldn't be a good fit, but if we could sign him for short-term, I still think I'd be interested.

If a three year contract underperforms or the guy gets injured it sucks. But if you're the Tigers with Cabrera, even if payroll isn't really an issue you're locked into that roster spot for YEARS. That's why smart GMs, and Cashman is a smart GM, are going to stagger these deals. If they give $120+ a year over the next five years to just 4-5 guys, they're going to have an inflexible payroll and roster, and at a time when the kids are going to start needing to get paid.

In comment 14177621 Dunedin81 said:

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If a three year contract underperforms or the guy gets injured it sucks. But if you're the Tigers with Cabrera, even if payroll isn't really an issue you're locked into that roster spot for YEARS. That's why smart GMs, and Cashman is a smart GM, are going to stagger these deals. If they give $120+ a year over the next five years to just 4-5 guys, they're going to have an inflexible payroll and roster, and at a time when the kids are going to start needing to get paid.

Exactly.

Yankees are "all in" on Machado

In comment 14177653 Dunedin81 said:

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Yankees are "all in" on Machado

To be fair, Kay made it pretty clear that's just what he's inferring based on Hal's comments. He's not 'reporting' anything per se other than Hal's comments.

In comment 14177653 Dunedin81 said:

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Yankees are "all in" on Machado

Guess they were satisfied with whatever sort of background digging they did.

I'm on board.

In comment 14177653 Dunedin81 said:

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Yankees are "all in" on Machado

Is Kay considered an insider mouthpiece or is it just his speculation for the show?

In comment 14177655 bigbluehoya said:

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In comment 14177653 Dunedin81 said: Quote: Yankees are "all in" on Machado To be fair, Kay made it pretty clear that's just what he's inferring based on Hal's comments. He's not 'reporting' anything per se other than Hal's comments.

Thanks. I'm getting it secondhand on Twitter.

but I have to assume that the plan would be for Machado at 3B, right? If so, I'm all for it if we can move Andujar for an arm.