NFT: NHL: some analytics discussion with graphs and charts

some people know I'm not a huge fan of many of the analytics (Corsi mainly) as a predictor of success. I like a lot of the stuff Valiquette talks about more, but I love them as data points. When graphed vs. each other you can sometimes see good information revealed.

I know a few people have asked about analytics, and this guy, @chartinghockey on twitter, graphs some of the analytics in a very meaningful way that slightly adjust my thinking. I'm sort of a laggard, though I still think my fundamental reasons for shunning Corsi are sound.

He's a good twitter follow for hockey fans.

I don't understand all of them yet, but for hockey fans looking for an explanation to what they're seeing, and a way to set their expectations for the future should nothing change this guy is a great resource.

This chart plots GF% vs expected GF and labels the quadrants so you can understand where each team falls.

This is where I talk about puck luck (though he plots that later) and what is sustainable and what is not.

Quote:

Sean Tierney & #8207; @ChartingHockey 3m3 minutes ago GF% vs expectation Good and it's real: TBL, MTL, MIN, BOS Good and there's luck to it: NSH, NYI, COL Bad and it ain't fair: VGK, SJS, EDM Bad and get comfortable: DET, OTT

This is one is just shots (CF vs CA) - the teams with losing records here would fall squarely into Valiquette's discussion about quality shots vs shots - I would strongly guess.:




This one is about teams who thrive on the forecheck and possession and thus give up fewer shots:

Quote:

Sean Tierney & #8207; @ChartingHockey 2m2 minutes ago Team stats heatmap I've sorted by CA/60. The stingiest teams: CAR, VGK, FLA, SJS, NSH, MTL.

Here is PDO - your team is lucky or unlucky, here's "proof"

Quote:

Sean Tierney & #8207; @ChartingHockey 1h1 hour ago PDO breakdown Based on the past ten years, VGK, NYI, and NSH are too far out of range to stay near where they are. Everyone else is basically within the realm of what's possible by year's end.

The old Julien, Vigneault, Therrien system. If you have the puck the other team can't score (until your goalie is a sieve - like the Habs have been lately).

Quote:

Sean Tierney & #8207; @ChartingHockey 1h1 hour ago Shot share MTL is playing Julien's puck-control style and getting the results they deserve. NYR's posted some nice underlying numbers but shot share isn't one of them.

Expected goals, is a good indicator about scoring pace:

Quote:

Sean Tierney & #8207; @ChartingHockey 1h1 hour ago xG daggers Lots to see but my eye is drawn to the dwindling group of truly break-even, dullish teams: NYR, DAL, and LAK.

Twitter thread - include a link to his website
Link - ( New Window )