I know some Mets fans don't want to hear opinions from other fans on their threads, so I'll start a new one and just look at it from Seattles perspective. If you are a sensitive mets fan, please get out now.
Wow, what a job by Seattle, absolutely amazing.
So in order to steal one of the best hitters in the game during his prime, Seattle needed to sign him to a 10 year deal that would bring him into his 40's. Everyone knew that the contract would be an albatross towards the end, but they had to make a bold move. They sign Cano and get 5 high quality years. Then he gets busted for PED's and with 5 years left on the deal, they unload him and ONLY add $20M to the deal to get it done. All they had to do was add a RP to get it done. It doesn't stop there though, they even got the Mets to throw in a few top level prospects to sweaten the pot and only took on minimal salary(Bruce and the RP) to entice the Mets even more.
Absolutely amazing job by Seattle. They stole Cano from the Yankees, got his best years and then unloaded him fairly easily.
And somehow also fail to mention they are also sending one of the best young relievers in baseball.
The last three years of that contract with an aging ex-Ped cano will be an albatross on the mets necks. And we all know how they like to use those contracts (Wright) as an excuse NOT to spend.
...I am a huge Yankees fan since the early 1960s, but I also happen to be in the very small minority who also roots for the Mets (so long as they are not playing the Yanks).
So, with that qualifier, my opinion is that Mets fans should be pretty happy with this trade! They are getting a lights-out closer in Diaz who steps in for a not-so-great Robert Gsellman.
And unloading Bruce and Swarzak for Cano is a win too.
In 2018, Mets .234 team BA was last in MLB. Cano will change that by himself.
Bottom line: the Mets are probably at least 2 everyday players away from truly contending, but they are trying to be in win-now mode, and IMO they are a lot better today having made this trade with Seattle.
Now the negatives. If Cano falls off a cliff in a year this trade could be a huge regret for the new GM. The PED suspension would worry me greatly if I were a Mets fan. I am not a big fan of Dunn but the Mets have absolutely no depth at SP. They are putting all their faith in Thor, Wheeler, and Matz ability to stay healthy. Vargas should be the long man or AAA depth not the 5th starter. They should add a legit backend guy plus 2-3 veterans for depth to stash in AAA and hope that one performs well when called upon.
This trade was a win now move but if they turn around and trade Thor then it will make this trade even more confusing. If the Mets sign Harper plus add a Keuchel type and a couple of relievers then the NL East will be a great three headed battle all season.
Now the negatives. If Cano falls off a cliff in a year this trade could be a huge regret for the new GM. The PED suspension would worry me greatly if I were a Mets fan. I am not a big fan of Dunn but the Mets have absolutely no depth at SP. They are putting all their faith in Thor, Wheeler, and Matz ability to stay healthy. Vargas should be the long man or AAA depth not the 5th starter. They should add a legit backend guy plus 2-3 veterans for depth to stash in AAA and hope that one performs well when called upon.
This trade was a win now move but if they turn around and trade Thor then it will make this trade even more confusing. If the Mets sign Harper plus add a Keuchel type and a couple of relievers then the NL East will be a great three headed battle all season.
Still, Cano hit .300 and 50 RBIs in half a season. Not to mention his .350+ OBP and .845 OPS. I think he's got a lot of hits left in him.
That assumes that Bruce and Swarzak are assets. If you dont believe they are, they gave back $56 million.
Unfortunately, we all know the Wilpons will interfere in the day to day activities and will always be in band-aid\short term fixes. So on that note, I think the Mets did well adding Cano's bat and Diaz as a long term closer.
They're thinking about 2019/2020 and will deal with the impact of Cano's contract from 2021-2023 and the lost of two of their top prospects in the future. Floss, Rinse, Repeat.....same old Mets!!!
It is a win now move in which they automatically made themselves a better team. Bruce was never a fit here, Swarzak sucks, so good on them for riding themselves of that dead wood.
Prospects are prospects. I know because it's the Mets people want to make Kelenic out to be Mike Trout in waiting, but let's see. Dunn is not a significant piece.
It will be interesting to see what's next as all indications are they are not done. Big NO to trading Thor. Bring in a Miller/Robertson. Sign Grandal. Trade for Kluber? My take so far is that yes, the Mets will stick to the budget, but BVW has a plan to work creatively within that.
Quote:
$20M. THe Mets had all the leverage. Cano was only going back to NY and the Yankees didn't show too much interest. HOw do you only get $20 back? It should have been so much more.
That assumes that Bruce and Swarzak are assets. If you dont believe they are, they gave back $56 million.
56 million minus the value of the prospects. Seattle did a great job here. Tip of the cap considering they are blowing it up and had an awful farm and now have 2 lock top 100 guys, 1 borderline in Dunn and now it looks like Crawford+ and they are still working on moves.
Unloading Cano's contract was great for them, but not considering what they gave up to do it is not really an analysis so much as a fluff piece.
And if any or all of the 3 prospects Mets gave up turn into stars.
But if either or all dont occur the trade could turn out ok.
I know the risky nature of young prospects, but I just can't believe the Mets couldn't have gotten this deal done without surrendering the 2018 6th overall pick. Where else was Seattle going with this deal with Cano's NTC? Could holding onto to Swarzak or Bruce elminated the need for prospects? Would Seattle have shipped Cano and included Diaz simply to dump the contract and not required prospects?
Second thing is this deal will really boil down to what they do next? Will they continue to add major pieces and spend? Because this is a win now move and they need more to win now. Even with Cano's contract, they still don't have a big payroll. We will see but I have my doubts.
The only negative I'd ask myself as an M's fan is if they got enough for Diaz. Brad Hand brought back Francisco Mejia. Most would say that he's a significantly more valuable prospect than Kelenic. And you can make a good argument Hand is less valuable than Diaz by a good margin even though both had 4 years of control.
Obviously that difference is well worth getting off of Cano's contract so cheaply. But any fan would prefer to maximize the talent return, not reduce it at the expense of saving money.
I know the risky nature of young prospects, but I just can't believe the Mets couldn't have gotten this deal done without surrendering the 2018 6th overall pick. Where else was Seattle going with this deal with Cano's NTC? Could holding onto to Swarzak or Bruce elminated the need for prospects? Would Seattle have shipped Cano and included Diaz simply to dump the contract and not required prospects?
Second thing is this deal will really boil down to what they do next? Will they continue to add major pieces and spend? Because this is a win now move and they need more to win now. Even with Cano's contract, they still don't have a big payroll. We will see but I have my doubts.
Agree with all this. To me it comes down to whether or not they add the 3-4 players they need to over the rest of the offseason and make the appropriate commitment to increasing the payroll. If this move helped enable the cash to do that while also returning 2 good players, ok. If not it was just a desperate attempt to make it look like they were trying to win without actually spending to try to win.
Kelenic could be the best player in the trade long term. His high end comp is Yelich, if he ends up there and Seattle gets all of his value years that's an even better player and more years of control than Diaz. There's no way to quantify how likely that is but it's certainly possible.
Cano or Diaz are best players in the short term. Long term it is Diaz or potentially Kelenic. Closers are always a risk. Very few have the sustained success of Rivera, Kimbrel, etc. If Diaz becomes J.J. Putz then if Kelenic only ends up as a future Mark Kotsay, then I would give long term to the Mariners. Bautista has a nice fastball and is young, but the control issues are nothing new. Dunn I am not a fan of longterm as the splits do not say MLB Starting Pitcher. That being said he is relatively new to starting pitching (having been a reliever for a significant number of his appearances all three years of college) so I wouldn't completely write him off. However, I am comfortable including him in a deal and not risking that his value will tank in 2019 if he does not make any strides getting lefties out.
But in my opinion Bruce and Swarzak for Cano + $20m is not a bad deal by itself. If you separate the rest of the deal and look at just the Cano part, I am not as opposed. Cano will improve the lineup at least in the short-term. Long-term? Well, that seems likely to wind up a problem. But I still think I would do it.
Great job by them selling high there.
They got the prospect for Diaz. If Diaz wasn't in the trade it would have been bad contract for bad contracts and in all likelihood seattle would have had to kick in more money, not less.
Quote:
the 2nd half of that awful Cano contract. Mind-blowing. Have to tip my cap to them, and to get a good prospect on top of that? They killed it. Have fun with the lat 5 years of Cano. Yikes.
They got the prospect for Diaz. If Diaz wasn't in the trade it would have been bad contract for bad contracts and in all likelihood seattle would have had to kick in more money, not less.
I got that. They're still paying Cano the last 5 years of his deal, in total $100 million.
I don't want this to be about the Mets and to bash them for losing this trade, I started this thread strictly to acknowledge what the Mariners just pulled off. They stole Cano from the Yankees, got the best years from him and then unloaded him with the albatross part of the contract left. Yes, they added a stud RP to do it, but they also rec'd a decent haul of prospects in return for that RP. It was just a great job by Seattle.
I don't want this to be about the Mets and to bash them for losing this trade, I started this thread strictly to acknowledge what the Mariners just pulled off. They stole Cano from the Yankees, got the best years from him and then unloaded him with the albatross part of the contract left. Yes, they added a stud RP to do it, but they also rec'd a decent haul of prospects in return for that RP. It was just a great job by Seattle.
Yup no disagreement from me. They made out great. The only extremely minor nitpick I can even think of is whether or not they gave up a marginally better prospect than Kelenic had they dealt Diaz on his own. Even if so I don't think there was a marginal difference worth risking the Mets taking on Cano.
I'm not even saying I agree with the trade, but if one of Kelenic and Dunn don't turn into actual above average MLers, the Mets got away with highway robbery. Sure, if Kelenic turns into a superstar it's going to hurt. But at minimum they both have to be real assets.
Diaz was a historically elite closer last year. How much was Mariano worth to the Yankees? Would you have given up a 2 prospects to get a 24 year old Mariano Rivera?
Yeah, I get it, there needs to be consistency, but let's not act like Diaz is a one-season wonder, either. He's been pretty damn good for 3 seasons now.
I don't want this to be about the Mets and to bash them for losing this trade, I started this thread strictly to acknowledge what the Mariners just pulled off. They stole Cano from the Yankees, got the best years from him and then unloaded him with the albatross part of the contract left. Yes, they added a stud RP to do it, but they also rec'd a decent haul of prospects in return for that RP. It was just a great job by Seattle.
Except you are not listening to those who legitimately disagree with your assertion that the Mariners just fleeced the Mets. His 10 HR in 80 games puts him in a similar position to the 21 and 23 that he had in 2015 and 2017 respectively. 2014 he only had 14 and 2016 he had 39, both of which seem like outliers in his career. Considering he has been on pace for 20-23 HR 3 of the last 5 seasons including the last two seasons, what is the basis for your assertion that he is going to perform at a lesser level for the remainder of his contract? Granted players tend to decline as they get older, but it is not like that 2014-2015 were his best years offensively in Seattle and he has been in decline the last two years. The biggest wild card in this deal is Kelenic. If his peak is that of Mark Kotsay and Edwin Diaz turns out to be the next Craig Kimbrel, then it is the Mariners that got fleeced. The Mets also had no place for Jay Bruce with the development of Brandon Nimmo. If he plays 1B then he is blocking Peter Alonso. Don't get caught up in where Dunn and Kelenic were ranked in the Mets system because Gimenez, the Mets top prospect, would struggle to crack the Top 5 in many other systems.
Quote:
Now that the dust has settled, what does everyone think? My thoughts come down to 2 major points.
I know the risky nature of young prospects, but I just can't believe the Mets couldn't have gotten this deal done without surrendering the 2018 6th overall pick. Where else was Seattle going with this deal with Cano's NTC? Could holding onto to Swarzak or Bruce elminated the need for prospects? Would Seattle have shipped Cano and included Diaz simply to dump the contract and not required prospects?
Second thing is this deal will really boil down to what they do next? Will they continue to add major pieces and spend? Because this is a win now move and they need more to win now. Even with Cano's contract, they still don't have a big payroll. We will see but I have my doubts.
Agree with all this. To me it comes down to whether or not they add the 3-4 players they need to over the rest of the offseason and make the appropriate commitment to increasing the payroll. If this move helped enable the cash to do that while also returning 2 good players, ok. If not it was just a desperate attempt to make it look like they were trying to win without actually spending to try to win.
I think they need 1 to 2 more relievers and a CF away.
Personally I'm not as hung up on catcher as everyone else. I think they probably will do something on that front but I'm comfortable with d'Arnaud and Plawecki with Nido depth next year. If d'Arnaud can actually stay healthy for once he is actually a plus offensive catcher, and is pretty good defensively. I realize that's a pretty big 'if'.
Do you have a problem with facts? All I said was how good Diaz was last year. He was dominant. You brushed him off like "all they had to do was give up a RP." Funny. Just a relief pitcher who has electric stuff and just came off one of the best seasons for a closer, ever.
Great job by them selling high there.
Sea got Sheffield. The other prospects are a mixed bag. Both teams got what they wanted.
Did anyone say he's Mo Rivera? I think the point was comparing his 2017 season to any of Rivera's best. If the Mets were trading for Rivera they would've had to give up a lot more than non-top 50 prospects they traded.
IMO, the Paxton deal was the best move the Mariners made this offseason. Sheffield looks like he's going to be a high-end rotation piece and Paxton seems to find new ways to end up on the DL. The return they got for him really surprised me. Last year was the first time he's ever thrown more than 150 innings... and he's 30 years old, yikes!
Diaz was a historically elite closer last year. How much was Mariano worth to the Yankees? Would you have given up a 2 prospects to get a 24 year old Mariano Rivera?
He's 24 years old, Keith. Mariano didn't crack the majors until 25 and why don't you check out his age 25 season? And it's not about one season, he was pretty awesome in 2016 as a 22 year old as well.
Also, try to be less douchey. I'm not saying he's Mo, I'm saying that Mo was dominant and is the greatest closer ever, and Diaz is coming off one season that is arguably better than Mariano Rivera ever had. What I didn't say is that he would become Rivera or have the longevity and consistency that Rivera had.
What's absolutely silly and stupid? This:
As if the deal was about Cano in a bubble. Asinine comment.
Essentially, netting out Bruce and Swarzak, the Mets have Cano for 5 years @ less than $13M per season. with the $20M cash Seattle threw in and the $36M from Bruce and Swarzak. Cano only needs to be good (per his standards) for 2 years to make the money worth it.
History is littered with trades like this where the prospects turn out to be garbage, but at the time they have value you should maximize it and the Mets didn't IMO.
Especially when they were willing to take on the amount of $$ they took on with Cano's contract.
That being said, if the Mets do contend, and remain contenders for the next couple season, BVW will look like a genius with gigantic balls.
Because a trade like this one as your first ever trade as a GM take gigantic balls.
It can every well make or break Brodie's Mets tenure.
But as a Mets fan I was disappointed in this trade mainly because there were relievers available in FA that wouldn't have cost Kelenic - he is literally the only thing I don't like about this trade and he'd need to practically become Mike Trout with Diaz being awful and Cano flunking another test to make it a big loss for the Mets.
I wouldn't love it as an M's fan because they are a lot worse today than before the trade, but they did shed salary, so if that's their goal, mission accomplished.
For the guys who know the FA market better than me, who should be the main targets? What is your wishlist?
For the guys who know the FA market better than me, who should be the main targets? What is your wishlist?
Apparently they are sour on Ramos but mine would be
1. Ramos 2. Cervelli 3. Grandal 4. Russell Martin
I'm also surprised more people aren't upset that the Mets didn't just buy a closer. There are a solid half-dozen of them available in FA right now.
With all that said, trades are good when they work out for both teams. That's the premise of trading. Value for value, and it seems like both teams really got what they wanted.
I'm also surprised more people aren't upset that the Mets didn't just buy a closer. There are a solid half-dozen of them available in FA right now.
With all that said, trades are good when they work out for both teams. That's the premise of trading. Value for value, and it seems like both teams really got what they wanted.
1. He's had them since he was drafted
2. I'd say at least 60% of Mets fans have a negative view of this trade on twitter, if not more.
Quote:
to compare him to Mo. There have been a handful of relievers during Mo's career that had better individual seasons and like most relievers not named Mo, they fall off for a variety of reasons. Diaz had a special year. Its not like he has strung a few of them together. Any comparison to Mo is just dumb. The ability to do it year in and year out is what made Mo special. He wasn't always the best closer in a season, but he was amongst the best for over a decade. That's really what made him special. Maybe hold off on this comparison??
Did anyone say he's Mo Rivera? I think the point was comparing his 2017 season to any of Rivera's best. If the Mets were trading for Rivera they would've had to give up a lot more than non-top 50 prospects they traded.
IMO, the Paxton deal was the best move the Mariners made this offseason. Sheffield looks like he's going to be a high-end rotation piece and Paxton seems to find new ways to end up on the DL. The return they got for him really surprised me. Last year was the first time he's ever thrown more than 150 innings... and he's 30 years old, yikes!
Strange change of opinion unless you're being facetious now...
Metnut : 11/19/2018 7:32 pm : link
for a shit package. Rich get richer.
Sheffield absolutely does not look like a TOR pitcher right now. He walks too many batters and if Cashman believed that, he wouldn't have dealt him. For whatever reason, NYY simply were not high on Sheffield at all.
I wasn't disagreeing with you. I just meant more fans than you think were not in favor of this. But what's done is done. Most were neutral/negative. Very few were "loving" it.
I glanced over those comments because they are just silly. I was very unimpressed from what I saw with Sheffield. He does not have top of the rotation stuff, iMO.
Quote:
I don't have a horse in the race. I hope it works out for both teams. I'm sure it will, and who cares what twitter says, most of those fans are of questionable intelligence.
I wasn't disagreeing with you. I just meant more fans than you think were not in favor of this. But what's done is done. Most were neutral/negative. Very few were "loving" it.
And that includes BBI and other Mets sites I frequent.
Quote:
You cannot run back next year with TDA and Plawecki. They need to upgrade the position. Those guys have proven what they are.
For the guys who know the FA market better than me, who should be the main targets? What is your wishlist?
Apparently they are sour on Ramos but mine would be
1. Ramos 2. Cervelli 3. Grandal 4. Russell Martin
I like Ramos as well, and I'd probably flip Grandal and Cervelli.
As for d'Arnaud, I have had an unhealthy belief that he will produce at a high level at some point for a long time, and he continues to disappoint, I do believe it's in part to his oft-injured status, and if he ever avoided the injury bug he'd be more apt to put it together. He did show some power output in 2017 but more to my point is that I don't think getting a top-shelf offensive performer is as important as fixing CF. If they get Pollock or go all-in on Harper, I'd prefer to do that than spend on C. Part of that belief is because I believe in Alonso...I think he's going to be an upper-tier offensive 1B.
If you give me:
1B Alonso
2B Cano
3B McNeil
SS Rosario
OF Conforto, Nimmo, and Pollock or Harper
Then I am simply not concerned if the Mets don't get an offensive upgrade at C, as I believe those 7 guys will be more than enough as long as we have a rotation headlined by deGrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler.
Quote:
Did anyone say he's Mo Rivera? I think the point was comparing his 2017 season to any of Rivera's best. If the Mets were trading for Rivera they would've had to give up a lot more than non-top 50 prospects they traded.
IMO, the Paxton deal was the best move the Mariners made this offseason. Sheffield looks like he's going to be a high-end rotation piece and Paxton seems to find new ways to end up on the DL. The return they got for him really surprised me. Last year was the first time he's ever thrown more than 150 innings... and he's 30 years old, yikes!
Strange change of opinion unless you're being facetious now...
Quote:
Amazing the Yanks get a stud SP
Metnut : 11/19/2018 7:32 pm : link
for a shit package. Rich get richer.
Sheffield absolutely does not look like a TOR pitcher right now. He walks too many batters and if Cashman believed that, he wouldn't have dealt him. For whatever reason, NYY simply were not high on Sheffield at all.
lol you got me!
i just found it a bid suspicious that Keith is suddenly really interested in the SEA Mariners. Other Met fans know my thoughts on this trade even if I've accepted it by now.
Its hard to know exactly where to go from here, so lets turn our attention to the household name. The centerpiece of the trade is Diaz. The player the Mets are most excited to get is Diaz. The familiar name is Cano. As much as Cano is being included so that the Mariners can be rid of his contract, its important to understand that Cano can still play at a high level, even though hes 36 years old. Last season, he played at a six-win pace. Statcast loved what he did at the plate. The talk about Cano being a first baseman or a DH ignores that he continues to fare well at second base in both DRS and UZR. Steamer projects Cano for about 3.0 WAR. Thats good! Cano is still good. Hes not just a pure salary dump.
On the other hand, there is the age part. For a quick analysis, I went back to 1974 and looked for position players who, like Cano, were really good between the ages of 33 and 35. Heres how the following five years each played out:
Still good at 36. Thats in line with Canos Steamer projection. Still startable at 37. Things get shaky by 38, and they dont improve from there. Very obviously, every player is unique, and Cano will have his own individual aging experience, but based on the history, the Mets should count on about two more productive seasons. Maybe two and a half. The back end will probably be ugly, because the back end is almost always ugly.
Eventually, Cano will be a bench player. For now, theres concern he just blocks the surprisingly exciting Jeff McNeil. Im not actually worried about that. Rather, I think this is a good thing for the Mets depth, which is something theyve lacked in recent seasons. The roster is going to change further, but today, McNeil offers support at a variety of positions, including second and third. That means that, through Cano, the Mets get additional coverage at first, in case their younger options arent ready or able to help. Youll see what kind of contract Marwin Gonzalez gets as a free agent. McNeil might kind of be the Mets own Marwin Gonzalez, albeit less able to play short. Its important to have capable reinforcements at the ready.
Diaz is sensational. Diaz should give the Mets something they didnt have. He throws a million miles per hour, and he just struck out 44% of his opponents, plus hes not yet 25, and he has another four years of team control. This is where the real value is Diaz is cheap, but if he were a free agent, he might look for $80 90 million. All that Mariners overachieving in 2018 was due in large part to their shutdown closer. The Mets are getting a weapon. Diaz is coming off one of the best relief seasons in recent memory.
For another quick study, I examined recent history for relief seasons worth at least 3 WAR. Thats a mighty high bar to clear, and between 1998 2017, there were just 33 such seasons. The following year, by average or median, the relievers gave back about 40% of their value. This is important to get: Diaz was great, and Diaz is great, but theres a good chance he peaked. The Mets cant expect him to just replicate what he did.
Still, Diaz should be a quality reliever for however long hes healthy. If the 2019 Mets are a bust, but if Diaz pitches well, he could be flipped for a prospect return. I think on some gut level there exists the thought that, health-wise, Diaz is a ticking time bomb, but theres no way I know of to back that up objectively. All pitchers are risks, and I cant demonstrate that Diazs own risk level is elevated. Aroldis Chapman hasnt been horribly injured. Craig Kimbrel has been steady from the start. Going further back, Francisco Rodriguez was good and healthy for a long time. If Diazs arm blows out, the Mets would find themselves in a nasty position, but that would be true for any important pitcher. We know now that, at the very least, Diaz passed a physical.
So the Mets are up a second baseman. Theyre up a high-leverage reliever. Theyre down a sunk-cost reliever, and a sunk-cost outfielder. And then we have the prospects. Once the Mariners determined it was time to step back, it made sense to trade Diaz around the apex of his value. I imagine the Mariners also thought there might not be many future opportunities to trade Cano away, given his age, contract, and no-trade clause. Cano mightve only wanted to go to New York, and theres hardly a guarantee a team in New York would always be open-minded. The Mariners have now stepped back, absolutely. But they no longer have baseballs worst farm system.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-mets-choose-opposite-paths/ - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14204259 Metnut said:
Quote:
Did anyone say he's Mo Rivera? I think the point was comparing his 2017 season to any of Rivera's best. If the Mets were trading for Rivera they would've had to give up a lot more than non-top 50 prospects they traded.
IMO, the Paxton deal was the best move the Mariners made this offseason. Sheffield looks like he's going to be a high-end rotation piece and Paxton seems to find new ways to end up on the DL. The return they got for him really surprised me. Last year was the first time he's ever thrown more than 150 innings... and he's 30 years old, yikes!
Strange change of opinion unless you're being facetious now...
Quote:
Amazing the Yanks get a stud SP
Metnut : 11/19/2018 7:32 pm : link
for a shit package. Rich get richer.
Sheffield absolutely does not look like a TOR pitcher right now. He walks too many batters and if Cashman believed that, he wouldn't have dealt him. For whatever reason, NYY simply were not high on Sheffield at all.
lol you got me!
i just found it a bid suspicious that Keith is suddenly really interested in the SEA Mariners. Other Met fans know my thoughts on this trade even if I've accepted it by now.
LOL, I figured you were being facetious but I wasn't sure.
I don't think this is really a bad deal for the Mets at all. The only argument against it is really just that they could have easily "bought" a good RP (or even two) without needing to take on Cano's deal in the process.
Cano helps the Mets right now - I think 2-3 years of the 5 will be good-decent. The last 2-3 are probably going to be tough. Like I said the other day, if the Mets are okay with that and aren't going to let that money get in the way of doing what's necessary to keep the team competitive, it's less of an issue. If it's "same old Mets" in that regard, then it could be a problem.
If Kelenic turns into a stud, then yeah - that also makes it a tougher pill to swallow. But again, prospect odds are so small at this stage. There are so many career arc possibilities for Kelenic at this stage.
So, I think the Mets could effectively have accomplished similar without needing to part with Kelenic but I also think they needed to get Bruce out of there and that doing so will be addition by subtraction.
If anything, it's good to see a little more creativity/willingness to shake it up a bit and do something a little less conventional.
If I had to project a "winner" of the trade, I'd probably say SEA, but not by a ton. like 60/40. Obviously the real answer to that won't be known for a few years.
Yeah, the brass definitely just didn't see him as a major piece of the puzzle going forward. Seemed like there were some minor flags/issues - but the way they really just seemed reluctant to have him pitch with the big club last year was telling. I have a feeling they were worried about him pitching away a lot of potential trade value - and he did have that one appearance where he pitched poorly, so, it's possible there would have been more of those and then all of a sudden, he's no longer as highly-regarded.
In comment 14204293 Keith said:
Oh ffs.
Both teams are getting exactly what they want and need. The Mets have decided they want to win with their window of pitching (something we have been pining for for years) and Seattle got a few prospects and salary relief for the future since they decided to blow it up.
These kind of trades happen every single day and regardless if the prospects are nothing or turn into Babe Ruth, teams generally dont think twice about it. Every trade involving prospects comes with the possibility the prospects might end up good. Thats the risk. It really has nothing to do with the value going each way in the trade at the time of the trade. Mets fans shouldn't care about Fulmer for Cespedes years later and Cubs fans probably arent crying about trading Gleybor Torres for 2 months of Chapman. Thats how trades work. If Kelenic turns into Mike Trout, good for him.
Value wise, Im completely baffled at the reaction from people in regards to what the going rate is for a top closer. Miller, Chapman, Kimbrell, etc. have all gotten traded for top prospects and none had half the control Diaz has. Regardless of Kelenic's upside or sentimental attachments, thats a fair trade on todays market.
With Cano. its simple. After the bad contracts and cash going the other way 5/65 isnt a lot and he helps you win now which is what we are trying to do. Yeah the end could be ugly but who really cares? We have nothing on the books in a few years and if we cant eat the backend of, quite frankly not a lot of money for a NY team, then what the hell are we doing?
I almost think Mets fans are just afraid to try to win or something.... maybe shell shocked or leery we might do more and that might be understandable. After years of complaining about only going "half in though, they finally make a ballsy move that shows they want to win and people are worried about prospects that will help in 2023?? If the Mets offseason is done Ill join everyone in saying this didn't make much sense but if they make some more moves and spend some more money than I wont really get any hate for this trade at all. This should be what every Met fan wants and it should be exciting.
Link - ( New Window )
Both teams are getting exactly what they want and need. The Mets have decided they want to win with their window of pitching (something we have been pining for for years) and Seattle got a few prospects and salary relief for the future since they decided to blow it up.
These kind of trades happen every single day and regardless if the prospects are nothing or turn into Babe Ruth, teams generally dont think twice about it. Every trade involving prospects comes with the possibility the prospects might end up good. Thats the risk. It really has nothing to do with the value going each way in the trade at the time of the trade. Mets fans shouldn't care about Fulmer for Cespedes years later and Cubs fans probably arent crying about trading Gleybor Torres for 2 months of Chapman. Thats how trades work. If Kelenic turns into Mike Trout, good for him.
Value wise, Im completely baffled at the reaction from people in regards to what the going rate is for a top closer. Miller, Chapman, Kimbrell, etc. have all gotten traded for top prospects and none had half the control Diaz has. Regardless of Kelenic's upside or sentimental attachments, thats a fair trade on todays market.
With Cano. its simple. After the bad contracts and cash going the other way 5/65 isnt a lot and he helps you win now which is what we are trying to do. Yeah the end could be ugly but who really cares? We have nothing on the books in a few years and if we cant eat the backend of, quite frankly not a lot of money for a NY team, then what the hell are we doing?
I almost think Mets fans are just afraid to try to win or something.... maybe shell shocked or leery we might do more and that might be understandable. After years of complaining about only going "half in though, they finally make a ballsy move that shows they want to win and people are worried about prospects that will help in 2023?? If the Mets offseason is done Ill join everyone in saying this didn't make much sense but if they make some more moves and spend some more money than I wont really get any hate for this trade at all. This should be what every Met fan wants and it should be exciting.
Z, Kimbrel had 4 years of control when SD acquired him and 3 years when Boston did. Miller had 2 1/2 years when Cleveland acquired him. I'm not arguing your points but the reason both brought back so much was because of their control.
If this is true, it could help us clean up our payroll a bit and further allow us to do a bit more.
Shecky? Any thoughts on this yet? Too early?
Sources: The $20M #Mets will receive from the #Mariners will be spread out in roughly even portions over the remaining five years of Cans contract. It is not a one-time lump-sum payment. Trade mostly payroll-neutral for this season. Cano ~$20M, Diaz <$1M, Bruce + Swarzak ~$21M.
Love it! 9%
Like it! 24%
It's fine! 35%
It's terrible! 32%
Bare minimum to be competitive: Maldonado, McCutchen, Miller or Robertson.
Very happy: Ramos, Pollock, Miller or Robertson, backend starter for depth purposes.
Shoot for the Stars: Swap Conforto for Realmuto, Sign Harper, Sign Miller and Robertson (or two similar arms), sign Gio. Live with Lagares in CF until Cespedes returns. Rid yourself of Frazier.
Crazy enough even the shoot for the stars option probably keeps the payroll around 170 million or so.
Im kind of surprised he still is employed by SNY. They have to be able to identify how bad he is right? I can think of countless better options.
"One rival executive who likes the Mariners return in the Robinson Can-Edwin Diaz blockbuster said it would have been even better if the Ms had landed Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil, who in the execs opinion could have been another Mitch Haniger-like steal for Seattle."
"The executive believes McNeil possesses freaky contact skills that will enable him to be an everyday second baseman on a championship club." - (Ken Rosenthal)
"One rival executive who likes the Mariners return in the Robinson Can-Edwin Diaz blockbuster said it would have been even better if the Ms had landed Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil, who in the execs opinion could have been another Mitch Haniger-like steal for Seattle."
"The executive believes McNeil possesses freaky contact skills that will enable him to be an everyday second baseman on a championship club." - (Ken Rosenthal)
Just hope that Callaway doesn't regularly start Frazier over McNeil at 3B.
"One rival executive who likes the Mariners return in the Robinson Can-Edwin Diaz blockbuster said it would have been even better if the Ms had landed Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil, who in the execs opinion could have been another Mitch Haniger-like steal for Seattle."
"The executive believes McNeil possesses freaky contact skills that will enable him to be an everyday second baseman on a championship club." - (Ken Rosenthal)
And herein lies the issue. The Mets had all the leverage in this deal and you always felt that it was the Mariners who were controlling the discussion. When a team is trying to unload an albatross contract for a 36 year old recent PED violator, the other team should win that trade 100 times out of 100. Only the Mets could screw that up.
Bare minimum to be competitive: Maldonado, McCutchen, Miller or Robertson.
Very happy: Ramos, Pollock, Miller or Robertson, backend starter for depth purposes.
Shoot for the Stars: Swap Conforto for Realmuto, Sign Harper, Sign Miller and Robertson (or two similar arms), sign Gio. Live with Lagares in CF until Cespedes returns. Rid yourself of Frazier.
Crazy enough even the shoot for the stars option probably keeps the payroll around 170 million or so.
I respect you as a poster and a Mets fan, but I hate your post. A home grown talent like Conforto you want to trade for Realmuto? I hate the hired guns mentality. I'd rather root for homegrown stars, and Conforto is that. Would love to see him play his whole career as a Met.
Quote:
"One rival executive who likes the Mariners return in the Robinson Can-Edwin Diaz blockbuster said it would have been even better if the Ms had landed Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil, who in the execs opinion could have been another Mitch Haniger-like steal for Seattle."
"The executive believes McNeil possesses freaky contact skills that will enable him to be an everyday second baseman on a championship club." - (Ken Rosenthal)
And herein lies the issue. The Mets had all the leverage in this deal and you always felt that it was the Mariners who were controlling the discussion. When a team is trying to unload an albatross contract for a 36 year old recent PED violator, the other team should win that trade 100 times out of 100. Only the Mets could screw that up.
Disagree. Just because they gave out an expensive contract doesnt mean we get to just run roughshod over them despite them eating almost half his salary in the deal net. Cano is still very good and proved it post PEDs. We dont get to have their closer for the supreme duty of taking on Cano. Cano still has value and likely would have gotten a nice 2-3 year deal on the open market today. They didnt screw up anything with Cano. They wanted him and swapped out some bad contacts and acquired some cash to make his contract less. They gave up nothing of substance for him. They did a separate trade for one of the best closers in baseball for a couple of prospects. Seems reasonable and fair all around to me.
Quote:
"One rival executive who likes the Mariners return in the Robinson Can-Edwin Diaz blockbuster said it would have been even better if the Ms had landed Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil, who in the execs opinion could have been another Mitch Haniger-like steal for Seattle."
"The executive believes McNeil possesses freaky contact skills that will enable him to be an everyday second baseman on a championship club." - (Ken Rosenthal)
Just hope that Callaway doesn't regularly start Frazier over McNeil at 3B.
Hopefully Frazier is either moved or is at 1B until Alonso is finished being Super 2d.
Quote:
In comment 14204619 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
"One rival executive who likes the Mariners return in the Robinson Can-Edwin Diaz blockbuster said it would have been even better if the Ms had landed Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil, who in the execs opinion could have been another Mitch Haniger-like steal for Seattle."
"The executive believes McNeil possesses freaky contact skills that will enable him to be an everyday second baseman on a championship club." - (Ken Rosenthal)
Just hope that Callaway doesn't regularly start Frazier over McNeil at 3B.
Hopefully Frazier is either moved or is at 1B until Alonso is finished being Super 2d.
Agreed, I would hang on Frazier and let him be the 1B until June 1st. At that point, you can either trade him or move him to the bench.
As for Cerrone, I don't believe his opinions are his own. Knowing he is paid by the team, ownership is probably using him to take the temperature of the fan base.
Quote:
In comment 14204619 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
"One rival executive who likes the Mariners return in the Robinson Can-Edwin Diaz blockbuster said it would have been even better if the Ms had landed Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil, who in the execs opinion could have been another Mitch Haniger-like steal for Seattle."
"The executive believes McNeil possesses freaky contact skills that will enable him to be an everyday second baseman on a championship club." - (Ken Rosenthal)
And herein lies the issue. The Mets had all the leverage in this deal and you always felt that it was the Mariners who were controlling the discussion. When a team is trying to unload an albatross contract for a 36 year old recent PED violator, the other team should win that trade 100 times out of 100. Only the Mets could screw that up.
Disagree. Just because they gave out an expensive contract doesnt mean we get to just run roughshod over them despite them eating almost half his salary in the deal net. Cano is still very good and proved it post PEDs. We dont get to have their closer for the supreme duty of taking on Cano. Cano still has value and likely would have gotten a nice 2-3 year deal on the open market today. They didnt screw up anything with Cano. They wanted him and swapped out some bad contacts and acquired some cash to make his contract less. They gave up nothing of substance for him. They did a separate trade for one of the best closers in baseball for a couple of prospects. Seems reasonable and fair all around to me.
You are right, we can disagree. The expensive contract is a big part of the deal. If a team wants to hand a player a dumb, expensive, long term contract...and then unload the worst part of that contract to another team, then they shouldnt be in the drivers seat. The Mets didnt even save any money on the deal this year lol. And Bruce/Swarzak were not bad contracts by any stretch.
And stop acting like that Cano and Diaz were separate trades...they werent. The Mariners werent going to throw in Diaz unless they get our best prospects and also take Canos albatross contract. And this is off of ONE big year. If we get 2017 Diaz ( highly probable) then the trade doesnt look so good, eh?
wat?
Quote:
And Bruce/Swarzak were not bad contracts by any stretch.
wat?
2 years at $14 mill for Jay Bruce
1 year at $8.5 mill for Anthony Swarzak
Total of $36.5 mill
Vs
5 years at $20 mill for 36 year old PED user Robinson Cano
No, they are not bad contracts. People only think they are bad contracts because its the Mets.
Swarzak has had 2 above average seasons out of the 9 hes been in MLB. Just based on that its highly unlikely hes going to repeat his career year. Expecting that given hes 33 and coming off a shoulder problem is even more unlikely.
Swarzak is paid like he's a 1 war player and it's not impossible he does that. Some around here were calling him an elite setup man last year. Vet relievers always find a home and Swarzak has more upside than your typical Fernando Salas. Would have had no issue keeping him, and in all honesty there's a better than 50-50 chance any team in the race is looking for a guy like him august.
Bruce's contract obviously hurt a little more - but mostly bc the Mets had no use of him since they don't have a DH and already have 2 better COF'ers. He can still likely post a 30/100 season - he's just very 1 dimensional and not a fit for the NL or the mets. His contract is valued around 3 fwar over 2 years. I'd say it's safe he does about that and he could do a little better if he has 1 good year like 2017.
Both of those guys are a bounceback to 2017 away from exceeding the value of the contracts. It takes a much bigger leap of faith that Cano will come close to matching his, let alone exceeding.
The Mariners took them and paid 20 million in order to receive better prospects from the Mets.
Quote:
Are you suggesting that Seattle, who is now tearing it down to rebuild, somehow wanted those contracts? They 100% took them to help balance the Cano contract. They have zero need for either. The Mets very likely could have gotten them to just pay out what they are going to pay Bruce and Swarzak on top of the 20 million but by clearing Bruce and Swarzak they also open a couple of crucial roster spots on the 40 man. It a 1000% was a favor to us.
The Mariners took them and paid 20 million in order to receive better prospects from the Mets.
Of course. In no way shape or form where they taking them because they liked them.
Who cares if Bruce and Swarzak bounce back? Seattle didnt want them for a single second.
Mets traded 2 players with inflated contracts with injury history and 3 prospects that are not ready to help win now for Cano who becomes their best hitter in the lineup and Diaz who could be the best closer in the NL.
how many wins were lost in the back end of games last year?
jarred kelenic does hurt but hes 19 and the Mets have the 9th pick in this years draft to replace.
Have to see what they do next but I like the trade.
Who cares if Bruce and Swarzak bounce back? Seattle didnt want them for a single second.
I think the better point is to correct people who call the entire Bruce and Swarzak contracts "dead" money. You know how I feel about Bruce (I've likely sounded like a broken record on him), but he's still almost certainly not entirely "dead" money. It's an "underwater" contract.
If Bruce plays to his career norms, he's likely to be worth $10-$15M total or so for the remainder of his contract (0.75-1 WAR per year). It means Bruce is overpaid, not completely worthless. So when someone uses Bruce/Swarzak's total amount owed and just subtracting it from the Cano remainder, it's not entirely accurate.
Put differently, as a Mets fan, I'd rather just get the balance owed to Swarzak and Bruce in cash and keep the players. The Mets could then hypothetically trade either of those, eat all the money, and receive some minor asset in return.
Scenario B: SEA pays a cash amount to the Mets equal to the remainder of salary owed to Bruce and Swarzak.
Does anyone dispute that scenario B is preferable to the Mets?
Quote:
Seattle didnt take back Bruce and Swarzak to even out some money in the deal? Amazing.
Who cares if Bruce and Swarzak bounce back? Seattle didnt want them for a single second.
I think the better point is to correct people who call the entire Bruce and Swarzak contracts "dead" money. You know how I feel about Bruce (I've likely sounded like a broken record on him), but he's still almost certainly not entirely "dead" money. It's an "underwater" contract.
If Bruce plays to his career norms, he's likely to be worth $10-$15M total or so for the remainder of his contract (0.75-1 WAR per year). It means Bruce is overpaid, not completely worthless. So when someone uses Bruce/Swarzak's total amount owed and just subtracting it from the Cano remainder, it's not entirely accurate.
Put differently, as a Mets fan, I'd rather just get the balance owed to Swarzak and Bruce in cash and keep the players. The Mets could then hypothetically trade either of those, eat all the money, and receive some minor asset in return.
Dude that logic works exactly the same way both ways. Assuming Canos contract is all dead money is farcical as well but its still a trade of multiple bad contracts.
Scenario B: SEA pays a cash amount to the Mets equal to the remainder of salary owed to Bruce and Swarzak.
Does anyone dispute that scenario B is preferable to the Mets?
I just I did. Same money back but you get rid of two spare parts and free up roster spots which isnt nothing.
Mike Puma
Verified account
@NYPost_Mets
2h2 hours ago
More
Jeff Wilpon on Brodie: I havent seen anybody with this much drive and determination in a long time.
Mike Puma
Verified account
@NYPost_Mets
2h2 hours ago
More
Jeff Wilpon on Brodie: I havent seen anybody with this much drive and determination in a long time.
LOL yeah and beyond that when Sandy first took over he was completely hamstrung as a result of the financial mess the Wilpon's found themselves in. How much more drive and determination could be likely have had? He was great at shepherding the organization through that period.
Jeff mentioned today they were hoping to resolve it soon to free up the roster spot.
BVW says there would have to be "very special circumstances for us to even consider" trading Syndergaard. He is part of the Mets core. -- Anthony DiComo
So trading him for crap that's being discussed or suggested by Cerrone would make that quote look absurd.
Anthony Swarzak, Jay Bruce, $20 Million, and a discount on Edwin Diaz is an amazing trade?
Thank you again for the Seattle perspective.
If this was Cano for 2 years $60M maybe people would feel better, but it's the same $60M (other than the $20M from SEA is being paid over time).
Also, the Mets traded two prospects for the best closer in the league last year. One is 19 years old.
I have repeatedly said I wouldn't have made the trade, but that's partly prospect hugging (phrase I've seen used more and more lately), but to say this was a good trade for Seattle has some massive projection for risky prospects and embraces they're going to be really bad for a while.
And the Mets team doctor performing the minor surgery is probably a good thing, no? He knows first hand the prognosis.