I know some Mets fans don't want to hear opinions from other fans on their threads, so I'll start a new one and just look at it from Seattles perspective. If you are a sensitive mets fan, please get out now.
Wow, what a job by Seattle, absolutely amazing.
So in order to steal one of the best hitters in the game during his prime, Seattle needed to sign him to a 10 year deal that would bring him into his 40's. Everyone knew that the contract would be an albatross towards the end, but they had to make a bold move. They sign Cano and get 5 high quality years. Then he gets busted for PED's and with 5 years left on the deal, they unload him and ONLY add $20M to the deal to get it done. All they had to do was add a RP to get it done. It doesn't stop there though, they even got the Mets to throw in a few top level prospects to sweaten the pot and only took on minimal salary(Bruce and the RP) to entice the Mets even more.
Absolutely amazing job by Seattle. They stole Cano from the Yankees, got his best years and then unloaded him fairly easily.
And somehow also fail to mention they are also sending one of the best young relievers in baseball.
The last three years of that contract with an aging ex-Ped cano will be an albatross on the mets necks. And we all know how they like to use those contracts (Wright) as an excuse NOT to spend.
...I am a huge Yankees fan since the early 1960s, but I also happen to be in the very small minority who also roots for the Mets (so long as they are not playing the Yanks).
So, with that qualifier, my opinion is that Mets fans should be pretty happy with this trade! They are getting a lights-out closer in Diaz who steps in for a not-so-great Robert Gsellman.
And unloading Bruce and Swarzak for Cano is a win too.
In 2018, Mets .234 team BA was last in MLB. Cano will change that by himself.
Bottom line: the Mets are probably at least 2 everyday players away from truly contending, but they are trying to be in win-now mode, and IMO they are a lot better today having made this trade with Seattle.
Now the negatives. If Cano falls off a cliff in a year this trade could be a huge regret for the new GM. The PED suspension would worry me greatly if I were a Mets fan. I am not a big fan of Dunn but the Mets have absolutely no depth at SP. They are putting all their faith in Thor, Wheeler, and Matz’ ability to stay healthy. Vargas should be the long man or AAA depth not the 5th starter. They should add a legit backend guy plus 2-3 veterans for depth to stash in AAA and hope that one performs well when called upon.
This trade was a win now move but if they turn around and trade Thor then it will make this trade even more confusing. If the Mets sign Harper plus add a Keuchel type and a couple of relievers then the NL East will be a great three headed battle all season.
Now the negatives. If Cano falls off a cliff in a year this trade could be a huge regret for the new GM. The PED suspension would worry me greatly if I were a Mets fan. I am not a big fan of Dunn but the Mets have absolutely no depth at SP. They are putting all their faith in Thor, Wheeler, and Matz’ ability to stay healthy. Vargas should be the long man or AAA depth not the 5th starter. They should add a legit backend guy plus 2-3 veterans for depth to stash in AAA and hope that one performs well when called upon.
This trade was a win now move but if they turn around and trade Thor then it will make this trade even more confusing. If the Mets sign Harper plus add a Keuchel type and a couple of relievers then the NL East will be a great three headed battle all season.
Still, Cano hit .300 and 50 RBIs in half a season. Not to mention his .350+ OBP and .845 OPS. I think he's got a lot of hits left in him.
That assumes that Bruce and Swarzak are assets. If you don’t believe they are, they gave back $56 million.
Unfortunately, we all know the Wilpons will interfere in the day to day activities and will always be in band-aid\short term fixes. So on that note, I think the Mets did well adding Cano's bat and Diaz as a long term closer.
They're thinking about 2019/2020 and will deal with the impact of Cano's contract from 2021-2023 and the lost of two of their top prospects in the future. Floss, Rinse, Repeat.....same old Mets!!!
It is a win now move in which they automatically made themselves a better team. Bruce was never a fit here, Swarzak sucks, so good on them for riding themselves of that dead wood.
Prospects are prospects. I know because it's the Mets people want to make Kelenic out to be Mike Trout in waiting, but let's see. Dunn is not a significant piece.
It will be interesting to see what's next as all indications are they are not done. Big NO to trading Thor. Bring in a Miller/Robertson. Sign Grandal. Trade for Kluber? My take so far is that yes, the Mets will stick to the budget, but BVW has a plan to work creatively within that.
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$20M. THe Mets had all the leverage. Cano was only going back to NY and the Yankees didn't show too much interest. HOw do you only get $20 back? It should have been so much more.
That assumes that Bruce and Swarzak are assets. If you don’t believe they are, they gave back $56 million.
56 million minus the value of the prospects. Seattle did a great job here. Tip of the cap considering they are blowing it up and had an awful farm and now have 2 lock top 100 guys, 1 borderline in Dunn and now it looks like Crawford+ and they are still working on moves.
Unloading Cano's contract was great for them, but not considering what they gave up to do it is not really an analysis so much as a fluff piece.
And if any or all of the 3 prospects Mets gave up turn into stars.
But if either or all don’t occur the trade could turn out ok.
I know the risky nature of young prospects, but I just can't believe the Mets couldn't have gotten this deal done without surrendering the 2018 6th overall pick. Where else was Seattle going with this deal with Cano's NTC? Could holding onto to Swarzak or Bruce elminated the need for prospects? Would Seattle have shipped Cano and included Diaz simply to dump the contract and not required prospects?
Second thing is this deal will really boil down to what they do next? Will they continue to add major pieces and spend? Because this is a win now move and they need more to win now. Even with Cano's contract, they still don't have a big payroll. We will see but I have my doubts.
The only negative I'd ask myself as an M's fan is if they got enough for Diaz. Brad Hand brought back Francisco Mejia. Most would say that he's a significantly more valuable prospect than Kelenic. And you can make a good argument Hand is less valuable than Diaz by a good margin even though both had 4 years of control.
Obviously that difference is well worth getting off of Cano's contract so cheaply. But any fan would prefer to maximize the talent return, not reduce it at the expense of saving money.
I know the risky nature of young prospects, but I just can't believe the Mets couldn't have gotten this deal done without surrendering the 2018 6th overall pick. Where else was Seattle going with this deal with Cano's NTC? Could holding onto to Swarzak or Bruce elminated the need for prospects? Would Seattle have shipped Cano and included Diaz simply to dump the contract and not required prospects?
Second thing is this deal will really boil down to what they do next? Will they continue to add major pieces and spend? Because this is a win now move and they need more to win now. Even with Cano's contract, they still don't have a big payroll. We will see but I have my doubts.
Agree with all this. To me it comes down to whether or not they add the 3-4 players they need to over the rest of the offseason and make the appropriate commitment to increasing the payroll. If this move helped enable the cash to do that while also returning 2 good players, ok. If not it was just a desperate attempt to make it look like they were trying to win without actually spending to try to win.
Kelenic could be the best player in the trade long term. His high end comp is Yelich, if he ends up there and Seattle gets all of his value years that's an even better player and more years of control than Diaz. There's no way to quantify how likely that is but it's certainly possible.
Cano or Diaz are best players in the short term. Long term it is Diaz or potentially Kelenic. Closers are always a risk. Very few have the sustained success of Rivera, Kimbrel, etc. If Diaz becomes J.J. Putz then if Kelenic only ends up as a future Mark Kotsay, then I would give long term to the Mariners. Bautista has a nice fastball and is young, but the control issues are nothing new. Dunn I am not a fan of longterm as the splits do not say MLB Starting Pitcher. That being said he is relatively new to starting pitching (having been a reliever for a significant number of his appearances all three years of college) so I wouldn't completely write him off. However, I am comfortable including him in a deal and not risking that his value will tank in 2019 if he does not make any strides getting lefties out.
But in my opinion Bruce and Swarzak for Cano + $20m is not a bad deal by itself. If you separate the rest of the deal and look at just the Cano part, I am not as opposed. Cano will improve the lineup at least in the short-term. Long-term? Well, that seems likely to wind up a problem. But I still think I would do it.
Great job by them selling high there.
They got the prospect for Diaz. If Diaz wasn't in the trade it would have been bad contract for bad contracts and in all likelihood seattle would have had to kick in more money, not less.
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the 2nd half of that awful Cano contract. Mind-blowing. Have to tip my cap to them, and to get a good prospect on top of that? They killed it. Have fun with the lat 5 years of Cano. Yikes.
They got the prospect for Diaz. If Diaz wasn't in the trade it would have been bad contract for bad contracts and in all likelihood seattle would have had to kick in more money, not less.
I got that. They're still paying Cano the last 5 years of his deal, in total $100 million.
I don't want this to be about the Mets and to bash them for losing this trade, I started this thread strictly to acknowledge what the Mariners just pulled off. They stole Cano from the Yankees, got the best years from him and then unloaded him with the albatross part of the contract left. Yes, they added a stud RP to do it, but they also rec'd a decent haul of prospects in return for that RP. It was just a great job by Seattle.
I don't want this to be about the Mets and to bash them for losing this trade, I started this thread strictly to acknowledge what the Mariners just pulled off. They stole Cano from the Yankees, got the best years from him and then unloaded him with the albatross part of the contract left. Yes, they added a stud RP to do it, but they also rec'd a decent haul of prospects in return for that RP. It was just a great job by Seattle.
Yup no disagreement from me. They made out great. The only extremely minor nitpick I can even think of is whether or not they gave up a marginally better prospect than Kelenic had they dealt Diaz on his own. Even if so I don't think there was a marginal difference worth risking the Mets taking on Cano.
I'm not even saying I agree with the trade, but if one of Kelenic and Dunn don't turn into actual above average MLers, the Mets got away with highway robbery. Sure, if Kelenic turns into a superstar it's going to hurt. But at minimum they both have to be real assets.
Diaz was a historically elite closer last year. How much was Mariano worth to the Yankees? Would you have given up a 2 prospects to get a 24 year old Mariano Rivera?
Yeah, I get it, there needs to be consistency, but let's not act like Diaz is a one-season wonder, either. He's been pretty damn good for 3 seasons now.
I don't want this to be about the Mets and to bash them for losing this trade, I started this thread strictly to acknowledge what the Mariners just pulled off. They stole Cano from the Yankees, got the best years from him and then unloaded him with the albatross part of the contract left. Yes, they added a stud RP to do it, but they also rec'd a decent haul of prospects in return for that RP. It was just a great job by Seattle.
Except you are not listening to those who legitimately disagree with your assertion that the Mariners just fleeced the Mets. His 10 HR in 80 games puts him in a similar position to the 21 and 23 that he had in 2015 and 2017 respectively. 2014 he only had 14 and 2016 he had 39, both of which seem like outliers in his career. Considering he has been on pace for 20-23 HR 3 of the last 5 seasons including the last two seasons, what is the basis for your assertion that he is going to perform at a lesser level for the remainder of his contract? Granted players tend to decline as they get older, but it is not like that 2014-2015 were his best years offensively in Seattle and he has been in decline the last two years. The biggest wild card in this deal is Kelenic. If his peak is that of Mark Kotsay and Edwin Diaz turns out to be the next Craig Kimbrel, then it is the Mariners that got fleeced. The Mets also had no place for Jay Bruce with the development of Brandon Nimmo. If he plays 1B then he is blocking Peter Alonso. Don't get caught up in where Dunn and Kelenic were ranked in the Mets system because Gimenez, the Mets top prospect, would struggle to crack the Top 5 in many other systems.
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Now that the dust has settled, what does everyone think? My thoughts come down to 2 major points.
I know the risky nature of young prospects, but I just can't believe the Mets couldn't have gotten this deal done without surrendering the 2018 6th overall pick. Where else was Seattle going with this deal with Cano's NTC? Could holding onto to Swarzak or Bruce elminated the need for prospects? Would Seattle have shipped Cano and included Diaz simply to dump the contract and not required prospects?
Second thing is this deal will really boil down to what they do next? Will they continue to add major pieces and spend? Because this is a win now move and they need more to win now. Even with Cano's contract, they still don't have a big payroll. We will see but I have my doubts.
Agree with all this. To me it comes down to whether or not they add the 3-4 players they need to over the rest of the offseason and make the appropriate commitment to increasing the payroll. If this move helped enable the cash to do that while also returning 2 good players, ok. If not it was just a desperate attempt to make it look like they were trying to win without actually spending to try to win.
I think they need 1 to 2 more relievers and a CF away.
Personally I'm not as hung up on catcher as everyone else. I think they probably will do something on that front but I'm comfortable with d'Arnaud and Plawecki with Nido depth next year. If d'Arnaud can actually stay healthy for once he is actually a plus offensive catcher, and is pretty good defensively. I realize that's a pretty big 'if'.
Do you have a problem with facts? All I said was how good Diaz was last year. He was dominant. You brushed him off like "all they had to do was give up a RP." Funny. Just a relief pitcher who has electric stuff and just came off one of the best seasons for a closer, ever.
Great job by them selling high there.
Sea got Sheffield. The other prospects are a mixed bag. Both teams got what they wanted.