Joel Sherman
& #10004;
@Joelsherman1
#Mets have indeed talked to #Marlins about Realmuto and are seriously considering Nimmo as a centerpiece. Nothing is considered imminent as Miami has suitors for Realmuto.
I WILL be sick if we trade Nimmo for Realmuto and I LOVE Realmuto.
Also said they now believe the trade pushes them into the upper 80's and they may be 1 or 2 moves from 90's. Obviously not surprising, but very typical wilponian rose covered glasses. I think he'd be in for a real surprise if the season started today bc I think 80 wins might even be a little overly optimistic as they are configured right now.
Should be noted that a Nimmo/Realmuto deal either based on last seasons numbers or 2019 projections adds at BEST 1 win to the total. Steamer has Nimmo's power dropping off and thus 2.4 fWAR/Realmuto 3.7. 2018 Nimmo was MORE valuable than Realmuto by fWAR. It's not as if you are dealing say Gimenez and Peterson (not that the Marlins do it) and you're adding 3ish wins at catcher.
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said before the Cano deal their analytics projected an 83 win team. I'd love to know where they see 6 games of improvement vs. last year's 77 without a closer on the roster.
Also said they now believe the trade pushes them into the upper 80's and they may be 1 or 2 moves from 90's. Obviously not surprising, but very typical wilponian rose covered glasses. I think he'd be in for a real surprise if the season started today bc I think 80 wins might even be a little overly optimistic as they are configured right now.
Considering the second half team played over .500 without a closer and its setup men, without Cespedes, Im guessing thats where. The second half team with McNeil, Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario leading the way was better than the first. Id also expect better and more consistent seasons from Syndergaard and Wheeler. Wheeler isnt gong to go through a rough start (6 weeks again) and hopefully Thor doesnt have any nagging finger stuff, etc.
But that's totally rose colored glasses because that assumes McNeil is one of the better players in baseball (which he was when he came up), that he's even starting, that Nimmo and Conforto are very, very good (as they were second half) and that Wheeler is again very good. The Mets don't have many players with much of track record for being good. Doesn't mean they won't be but how many givens do we have?
DeGrom, Thor if healthy, Cano, Diaz.. it's a short list. I guess Frazier to be mediocrely Frazier. This isn't even my usual Debbie Downer act, rather Brodie talked about "if's" this team has TONS of if's.
The Mets second half offense was 6th in the league, still without Cespedes. Im guessing Conforto getting over the shoulder stuff + McNeil has a lot to do with that.
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In comment 14206402 Eric on Li said:
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said before the Cano deal their analytics projected an 83 win team. I'd love to know where they see 6 games of improvement vs. last year's 77 without a closer on the roster.
Also said they now believe the trade pushes them into the upper 80's and they may be 1 or 2 moves from 90's. Obviously not surprising, but very typical wilponian rose covered glasses. I think he'd be in for a real surprise if the season started today bc I think 80 wins might even be a little overly optimistic as they are configured right now.
Considering the second half team played over .500 without a closer and its setup men, without Cespedes, Im guessing thats where. The second half team with McNeil, Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario leading the way was better than the first. Id also expect better and more consistent seasons from Syndergaard and Wheeler. Wheeler isnt gong to go through a rough start (6 weeks again) and hopefully Thor doesnt have any nagging finger stuff, etc.
But that's totally rose colored glasses because that assumes McNeil is one of the better players in baseball (which he was when he came up), that he's even starting, that Nimmo and Conforto are very, very good (as they were second half) and that Wheeler is again very good. The Mets don't have many players with much of track record for being good. Doesn't mean they won't be but how many givens do we have?
DeGrom, Thor if healthy, Cano, Diaz.. it's a short list. I guess Frazier to be mediocrely Frazier. This isn't even my usual Debbie Downer act, rather Brodie talked about "if's" this team has TONS of if's.
Im not saying the second half team was good enough or that McNeil is suddenly a wRC+ 140 guy. We clearly need to add more but I also think the second half team showed improvement and the younger hitters matured a bit. I probably have us in the 83-ish range with the Diaz/Cano additions.
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In comment 14206402 Eric on Li said:
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said before the Cano deal their analytics projected an 83 win team. I'd love to know where they see 6 games of improvement vs. last year's 77 without a closer on the roster.
Also said they now believe the trade pushes them into the upper 80's and they may be 1 or 2 moves from 90's. Obviously not surprising, but very typical wilponian rose covered glasses. I think he'd be in for a real surprise if the season started today bc I think 80 wins might even be a little overly optimistic as they are configured right now.
Considering the second half team played over .500 without a closer and its setup men, without Cespedes, Im guessing thats where. The second half team with McNeil, Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario leading the way was better than the first. Id also expect better and more consistent seasons from Syndergaard and Wheeler. Wheeler isnt gong to go through a rough start (6 weeks again) and hopefully Thor doesnt have any nagging finger stuff, etc.
But that's totally rose colored glasses because that assumes McNeil is one of the better players in baseball (which he was when he came up), that he's even starting, that Nimmo and Conforto are very, very good (as they were second half) and that Wheeler is again very good. The Mets don't have many players with much of track record for being good. Doesn't mean they won't be but how many givens do we have?
DeGrom, Thor if healthy, Cano, Diaz.. it's a short list. I guess Frazier to be mediocrely Frazier. This isn't even my usual Debbie Downer act, rather Brodie talked about "if's" this team has TONS of if's.
Agreed. Will be a test of how serious Brodie is about "ifs".
As you said, maybe they can win upper 80's with this roster:
If cano doesn't regress
If Wheeler's breakout was real
If Mcneil & nimmo breakouts don't regress
If Diaz puts up another hof season
if JDG is cy young again
but that's a lot of ifs. They were still -30 in run differential last year.
The Red Sox went from one and done in the playoffs to WS champs with basically the same roster other than JDM.
Big addition, but a lot of their "ifs" were answered positively too. Martinez alone does not account for a 15-win difference.
Maybe McNeil is Murphy 2.0 and this time the Mets keep him, and he can play defense.
The Red Sox went from one and done in the playoffs to WS champs with basically the same roster other than JDM.
Big addition, but a lot of their "ifs" were answered positively too. Martinez alone does not account for a 15-win difference.
Maybe McNeil is Murphy 2.0 and this time the Mets keep him, and he can play defense.
PJ,
Nobody is arguing otherwise. I'm simply responding to the Mets potentially "overrating" the second half stuff a bit. There are very talented players on this team that more likely than not are worse than the were second half last year and quite honestly not a ton of players who are likely to be better than the were second half.
Rosario (good final 2 months), is one who could. Who else realistically from the 2018 "good second half" is likely to be better? Who is likely to be worse? For all of the complaints about Syndergaard he was the 12th best SP in baseball second half by fWAR and 11th in FIP. The point is they need to add talent without subtracting from the good MLB players they have.
For sure.. and it's possible and yet still not have Wheeler be as good as he was second half last year. He posted a 1.68 era second half. He could give us 200 innings at a 2.50 era (a great season) and that would represent pitching WORSE than second half last year.
Point is they need more because there are very few spots we can point to and say "he's likely to be better than last year" and quite a few who can still be very good and yet be "worse" than second half last year.
Sign Miller and Harper. Payroll 160-ish mil.
Sign Miller and Harper. Payroll 160-ish mil.
I'm in.
Conforto, forget about it. He is our Yelich. For his career he's slugged better and has only a slightly lower wRC. He is 2 years younger than Yelich and IMO has been thrown into a few tough situations and he's still been able to produce (forced into CF, being called up early and platooned in 2015/16, coming back early from injury last year). Settle him in a corner outfield spot with good players around him in the lineup and let's see what he does in a fully healthy season. If there's 1 hitter who has the pedigree on this team to legitimately contend for an MVP award over the next 4 years it's him.
Here's how Mets hope to trade for J.T. Realmuto, fill outfield - ( New Window )
Conforto, forget about it. He is our Yelich. For his career he's slugged better and has only a slightly lower wRC. He is 2 years younger than Yelich and IMO has been thrown into a few tough situations and he's still been able to produce (forced into CF, being called up early and platooned in 2015/16, coming back early from injury last year). Settle him in a corner outfield spot with good players around him in the lineup and let's see what he does in a fully healthy season. If there's 1 hitter who has the pedigree on this team to legitimately contend for an MVP award over the next 4 years it's him. Here's how Mets hope to trade for J.T. Realmuto, fill outfield - ( New Window )
I think they need a Pollock type even WITH Nimmo and Conforto here so you my stance on this lol
And being real on Harper, even if they make a competitive $ offer - there's no way Boras lets him go to an organization that is going to be 100% cash strapped to make any other moves. Enough powerhouse teams are trying to woo him that I feel pretty confident saying there's less than a 1% chance he would even choose to come here.
Even if Nimmo regresses next year, he still looks to be a valuable piece and he's under team control forever. The team already has a hole in the OF and it's going to be hard to fill that up if we trade Nimmo.
Let's keep our guys and add talent via FA. The FA class is better than normal this year so time to pounce.
Even if Nimmo regresses next year, he still looks to be a valuable piece and he's under team control forever. The team already has a hole in the OF and it's going to be hard to fill that up if we trade Nimmo.
Let's keep our guys and add talent via FA. The FA class is better than normal this year so time to pounce.
Most are projecting him in the 3 for 30-36 range from what I've seen.
Sign Billy Hamilton for CF. Probably a 1 year "prove it" deal.
Sign 1 premium setup guy (Robertson or Miller).
Sign 1 other pitcher to more of a 1-2 year value deal (middle reliever like Brach?).
Trade dom for a potential 5th starter option (and maybe sign a couple vet SP to 1 year deals).
He has never been a huge HR guy. Last season was his career high in HR's with 21 and he did it in 460 AB's. His previous career high was 20 back in 2015 but he did that in 673 AB's.
The one thing about his D metrics is that his range still graded out very highly - he was mostly penalized for his arm (which I think is generally less significant in CF). His range was 3rd in all mlb behind Inciarte and Cain.
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His numbers have been in decline the past two years. In 2014 and 2015 he posted wRC+'s of 134 and 131. The past two years were 103 and 110. His defense in CF has slipped also. Last season he posted a career worst -0.7 UZR. If he has to move to a corner OF spot that puts even more pressure on his bat.
The one thing about his D metrics is that his range still graded out very highly - he was mostly penalized for his arm (which I think is generally less significant in CF). His range was 3rd in all mlb behind Inciarte and Cain.
Thanks Eric, I have read a couple of reports knocking his defense last year but if his range is still solid then he can hang for at least another year. I still wouldn't go more than 2 years on him but some team will give him 4.
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In comment 14206694 Jay on the Island said:
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His numbers have been in decline the past two years. In 2014 and 2015 he posted wRC+'s of 134 and 131. The past two years were 103 and 110. His defense in CF has slipped also. Last season he posted a career worst -0.7 UZR. If he has to move to a corner OF spot that puts even more pressure on his bat.
The one thing about his D metrics is that his range still graded out very highly - he was mostly penalized for his arm (which I think is generally less significant in CF). His range was 3rd in all mlb behind Inciarte and Cain.
Thanks Eric, I have read a couple of reports knocking his defense last year but if his range is still solid then he can hang for at least another year. I still wouldn't go more than 2 years on him but some team will give him 4.
Yea I find the D metrics inconsistent and hard to quantify but DRS seems to be the most commonly preferred and he was pretty on par with his usual last year (+6 last year, +50 overall for his 7 years). The other stat I like is out of zone plays just bc it's just an aggregate number, and last year he made the 2nd most out of zone plays of his career.
Brantley can't play CF. He can barely play LF at this point.
Link?
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Sandy was pushed out/fired. As many of us believed.
Link?
He's at the meetings looking for a job with a new team.
Anthony DiComo
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@AnthonyDiComo
16m16 minutes ago
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Brodie Van Wagenen strongly indicated on @WFAN660 that the Mets won't be players for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. For that to change, he said the Mets would "have to be really creative" under the payroll parameters Jeff Wilpon has given him. In other words, don't count on it.
A) Realmuto ($6.1M) + McCutchen ($14M) = $20.1M in 2019 and +6.3 WAR
B) Grandal ($15M) + Nimmo ($555k) = $15.5M in 2019 and +6 WAR
C) Grandal ($15M) + Conforto ($4.4M) = $19.4M in 2019 and +6.8 WAR
aka a Nimmo "and big prospects" or "Conforto and big prospects" deal does very little toward making the Mets a better team based on projections.
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but I would prefer to go 2 years on Michael Brantley than 4-5 years on Pollock.
Brantley can't play CF. He can barely play LF at this point.
I wasn't suggesting him in CF. I meant for the Braves.
" full-time RP, Lugo they "prefer" in the pen. So cross off Gsellman as a SP option"
" full-time RP, Lugo they "prefer" in the pen. So cross off Gsellman as a SP option"
I want to believe this in conjunction with discussions they have had with Mickey and Eiland.. I mean you would hope right?
Fact is... the Wilpons finances still aren't ideal nor do they seem inclined to spend above and beyond. Not looking to debate them AGAIN but dems the facts.