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NFT: Mets Chat

DanMetroMan : 12/10/2018 10:06 am
Maybe he's just not particularly good but if the Brewers are shopping Broxton I'd be interested. Still only 28, RH, 11 DRS in CF in 2018, he's not the "answer" for this lineup but I'd buy low #Mets

-Olney says Thor is available

-Rosenthal says the price on Realmuto is IMMENSE

- Kluber or Bauer expected to be moved
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RE: RE: 50% of your payroll?  
pjcas18 : 12/10/2018 1:53 pm : link
In comment 14213142 DanMetroMan said:
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In comment 14213121 pjcas18 said:


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even if Harper or Machado had a contract where they made $35M in one season, do you really think the Mets will have a $70M payroll?

This isn't 1998.

Mets should have a $160 - $170M payroll.




Also ignores the concept of backloading. You give Harper or Machado 25 million for 29, after the year Frazier, Vargas Lagares are FA. That's 25 million right there. That doesn't include a Wright settlement either. Following 2020 Cespedes 29.5 and Wright (if no settlement) come off as well.


Other than Cano - who despite the author in the Capone linked article has a 5 year ~$63M net contract, the Mets have no one on the 2021 payroll as of right now. The only players on the 2020 payroll right now are Cano, Cespedes and Wright.

They can definitely withstand a long-term high $$$ contract.

He's  
DanMetroMan : 12/10/2018 1:54 pm : link
yet to post a single season of being below league average with the bat. 134 OPS+ for his career, 123 in 2017, 118 in 2018. It all ends at some point but barring a sudden, drastic fall off he figures to again be at least an average MLB LF with upside to be above.
yes & no PJ - we know JDG is likely destined for $25m  
Eric on Li : 12/10/2018 2:01 pm : link
Thor, Conforto, Nimmo, Diaz will all be in arbitration years so those numbers will start to escalate. So it adds up quick. If we estimate those 4 around $50m combined, $25m for JDG, and the net $20m per year for Cano and whatever Matz/Rosario will get in Arb we're easily over $100m for 2021 already. That's where the Cano money will hurt in terms of payroll pain, especially since he may be shot as a player by then.

Then add in a potential Wheeler extension (which they should either do something now along the lines of Carrasco or trade him).
RE: yes & no PJ - we know JDG is likely destined for $25m  
pjcas18 : 12/10/2018 2:14 pm : link
In comment 14213174 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Thor, Conforto, Nimmo, Diaz will all be in arbitration years so those numbers will start to escalate. So it adds up quick. If we estimate those 4 around $50m combined, $25m for JDG, and the net $20m per year for Cano and whatever Matz/Rosario will get in Arb we're easily over $100m for 2021 already. That's where the Cano money will hurt in terms of payroll pain, especially since he may be shot as a player by then.

Then add in a potential Wheeler extension (which they should either do something now along the lines of Carrasco or trade him).

Of course, I didn't say the payroll would be zero for those years, they have to field a team, I said there is no one under contract besides who I mentioned for those years.

And I absolutely stand by my comment that the Mets can 100% afford to add a Harper and or Machado and they 100% should.

and the author in the article was disingenuous and so are you a little.

Cano remaining contract is 5 years 120M.

The Mariners kicked in $20M and took back ~38M in contracts from the Mets.

So yes, it is fair to say Cano is on the Mets books for 5 years around $62M.

Otherwise (if they didn't take Bruce and Swarzak) he wouldn't be a Met.
Wheeler  
DanMetroMan : 12/10/2018 2:16 pm : link
says they haven't even approached him about an extension
RE: RE: RE: I think I would actually do Nimmo + Matz for Kluber  
Vanzetti : 12/10/2018 2:37 pm : link
In comment 14213150 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14213138 Vanzetti said:


Quote:


In comment 14213045 Eric on Li said:


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then sign Mccutchen for RF for a couple years.

Not sure if I'd hit Mcneil or Rosario leadoff, but a 2-3-4 of Conforto / Mccutchen / Cano would be real solid. Plus obviously adding Kluber is huge.

Still need to find a CF + C in that arrangement, but rotation would be 100% best in baseball without downgrading the lineup all that much. Though it also adds 25m or so to the budget.



McCuthen is done. But otherwise I agree.

Sell high on Nimmo. His numbers last year were way better than his career average in the minors. Could he have turned the corner? Sure. But no deal is without risk and it is much more likely he will regress

If Matz ever puts it all together, he could be an Ace. But he won't be an Ace unless his elbow gets better and allows him to throw the slider. He needs the slider. So, again, it would be selling high.



He's not done at all. 2.6 fWAR in 2018, 3.7 in 2017, Steamer projects him again to be an above average regular (2.6).

120 wRC+ was exactly what Conforto posted in 2018 and 2.6 fWAR would have placed him 4th in returning Mets (Nimmo, McNeil Conforto,then McCutch)If you don't like steamer, BR projects a .773 OPS, 20 homers, 9 steals, 26 doubles 2 triples.


McCutchen is no longer a good player. I live in the Bay Area and saw him plenty. Major disappointment for the Giants. He gets beaten by fastballs inside and his defense has declined. He is the type of player who starts for a below.500 team.

Or maybe If you have a loaded lineup, you can get by with him as a number 7 hitter. But anyone who signs him to a multi year deal will regret it. One year flyer? Sure. But he is in the Todd Frazier stage of his career. He is the type of guy Sandy would have signed. Let’s hope BVW is smarter
RE: Wheeler  
Eric on Li : 12/10/2018 2:44 pm : link
In comment 14213193 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
says they haven't even approached him about an extension


there's no way they do anything with him until they extend JDG. But that's what's somewhat ridiculous about the wilpons in the first place, that they likely won't extend JDG until they see how much money they spend on everything else this offseason.
RE: RE: yes & no PJ - we know JDG is likely destined for $25m  
Eric on Li : 12/10/2018 2:47 pm : link
In comment 14213191 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14213174 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Thor, Conforto, Nimmo, Diaz will all be in arbitration years so those numbers will start to escalate. So it adds up quick. If we estimate those 4 around $50m combined, $25m for JDG, and the net $20m per year for Cano and whatever Matz/Rosario will get in Arb we're easily over $100m for 2021 already. That's where the Cano money will hurt in terms of payroll pain, especially since he may be shot as a player by then.

Then add in a potential Wheeler extension (which they should either do something now along the lines of Carrasco or trade him).


Of course, I didn't say the payroll would be zero for those years, they have to field a team, I said there is no one under contract besides who I mentioned for those years.

And I absolutely stand by my comment that the Mets can 100% afford to add a Harper and or Machado and they 100% should.

and the author in the article was disingenuous and so are you a little.

Cano remaining contract is 5 years 120M.

The Mariners kicked in $20M and took back ~38M in contracts from the Mets.

So yes, it is fair to say Cano is on the Mets books for 5 years around $62M.

Otherwise (if they didn't take Bruce and Swarzak) he wouldn't be a Met.


The money saved from Bruce + Swarzak is immediate though. In 2021 the Mets are paying Cano $20m. That is what he will count on their payroll. When have they ever represented a player's payroll cost as anything other than the exact number? Their current payroll number still includes Wright for crying out loud.
I know how the Mets will report  
pjcas18 : 12/10/2018 2:54 pm : link
I'm talking about what the contract for Cano effectively costs.

The $38M for Bruce and Swarzak is immediate, I agree, and so is I believe $5M of the $20M for Cano.

So does that make Cano -18? (negative $18M for 2019), since his contract is $25M for the year and it was traded for $43M.

No? So you use common math and deal with effective costs.

Cano effectively costs the Mets $12.2M per year for 5 years.

If the Mets count full Wright and Cespedes in their 2019 salary then they're probably done for the off-season.
Yea I was just responding to the part about 2021 payroll  
Eric on Li : 12/10/2018 3:13 pm : link
I agree in the valuation of the trade the mets only added $63m in Cano - the bulk of that is going to hit in the latter years though since he's basically revenue neutral this year. They probably added more money than people realize in Diaz though. If his arb years end up costing $30m than the $ price won't have been that much saved vs. a FA like Familia (who obviously wouldn't have cost Kelenic).

At the end of the day all of the analysis of that trade basically has boiled down to the same conclusion. Not great value and risky, but makes them better if they genuinely try to go for it now and spend $.
It’s amazing the Marlins still have such  
Rflairr : 12/10/2018 3:31 pm : link
A high price on him, considering all the good catching options out there.

Not sure why the Mets don’t just sign Ramos
RE: Wheeler  
Rflairr : 12/10/2018 3:32 pm : link
In comment 14213193 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
says they haven't even approached him about an extension


Can’t trade Noah, with Wheeler being a Free Agent after the season
RE: It’s amazing the Marlins still have such  
Eric on Li : 12/10/2018 4:36 pm : link
In comment 14213344 Rflairr said:
Quote:
A high price on him, considering all the good catching options out there.

Not sure why the Mets don’t just sign Ramos


Agreed. Someone had a good point today on twitter, 1 year of Paul Goldschmidt didn't cost all that much in prospects. Why would anybody pay significantly more for 2 years of Realmuto when there are FA who aren't that far off?

Also separately I just realized that if it were last year, with how aggressive he's been BVW may have landed Stanton or Yelich. Timing is everything I guess but that burns a little.
RE: RE: RE: yes & no PJ - we know JDG is likely destined for $25m  
gmenatlarge : 12/10/2018 6:53 pm : link
In comment 14213267 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14213191 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14213174 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Thor, Conforto, Nimmo, Diaz will all be in arbitration years so those numbers will start to escalate. So it adds up quick. If we estimate those 4 around $50m combined, $25m for JDG, and the net $20m per year for Cano and whatever Matz/Rosario will get in Arb we're easily over $100m for 2021 already. That's where the Cano money will hurt in terms of payroll pain, especially since he may be shot as a player by then.

Then add in a potential Wheeler extension (which they should either do something now along the lines of Carrasco or trade him).


Of course, I didn't say the payroll would be zero for those years, they have to field a team, I said there is no one under contract besides who I mentioned for those years.

And I absolutely stand by my comment that the Mets can 100% afford to add a Harper and or Machado and they 100% should.

and the author in the article was disingenuous and so are you a little.

Cano remaining contract is 5 years 120M.

The Mariners kicked in $20M and took back ~38M in contracts from the Mets.

So yes, it is fair to say Cano is on the Mets books for 5 years around $62M.

Otherwise (if they didn't take Bruce and Swarzak) he wouldn't be a Met.



The money saved from Bruce + Swarzak is immediate though. In 2021 the Mets are paying Cano $20m. That is what he will count on their payroll. When have they ever represented a player's payroll cost as anything other than the exact number? Their current payroll number still includes Wright for crying out loud.


You say other people are disingenuous but you are truly delusional if you think the Mets are signing Harper or Machado when they haven’t even resolved the deGrom situation, I mean this is the Mets. You need a large dose of reality. If we are lucky they will sign a couple of second tier FAs after the Cano debacle.
I don't think the Mets are going to sign  
pjcas18 : 12/10/2018 7:03 pm : link
Machado or Harper.

I said they SHOULD sign Machado and/or Harper.

and I felt like from a salary standpoint they should be able to afford it.

We all know the chances are better of getting struck by lightning or winning the lottery.
Ill be totally thrilled  
ZGiants98 : 12/10/2018 8:04 pm : link
if the Mets signed a top setup man like Miller, maybe a second guy like Joe Kelly as well, then signed Ramos, and M Gonzalez. Might sound like a lot but who knows.. Maybe its still unrealistic but we dont need Harper or Machado is my point to have hit a HR in the offseason. There are probably different variations of what I outlined that would still work as well (Puig, Grandal, Cutch, etc.).

Are the Mets really interested in  
SJGiant : 12/10/2018 8:49 pm : link
Catcher Ramos, or is this a game to make the Marlins reduce their demands for Realmuto?
Ramos. - ( New Window )
RE: Are the Mets really interested in  
Shecky : 12/10/2018 9:03 pm : link
In comment 14213728 SJGiant said:
Quote:
Catcher Ramos, or is this a game to make the Marlins reduce their demands for Realmuto? Ramos. - ( New Window )


Things went horribly wrong if Ramos is the OD catcher
Hmm  
CGiants07 : 12/10/2018 11:03 pm : link
#Mets have discussed trade in which they would land J.T. Realmuto in three-team deal with #Yankees and #Marlins, sources tell The Athletic. Not known if Syndergaard involved. NYM would not part with Syndergaard (three years control) if getting only Realmuto (two years) in return.

10:56 PM - 10 Dec 2018
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This is almost new thread worthy...  
ZGiants98 : 12/10/2018 11:20 pm : link
Im going to be fucking sick if we trade Thor to the Yankees. Fuck that shit.
RE: RE: Are the Mets really interested in  
Eric on Li : 12/10/2018 11:22 pm : link
In comment 14213740 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 14213728 SJGiant said:


Quote:


Catcher Ramos, or is this a game to make the Marlins reduce their demands for Realmuto? Ramos. - ( New Window )



Things went horribly wrong if Ramos is the OD catcher


That would seem to imply it's Realmuto or Grandal. I really hope it's the latter, I have a very bad feeling any Realmuto trade will make the seattle trade look like small potatoes.
RE: RE: RE: Are the Mets really interested in  
ZGiants98 : 12/11/2018 12:01 am : link
In comment 14213936 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14213740 Shecky said:


Quote:


In comment 14213728 SJGiant said:


Quote:


Catcher Ramos, or is this a game to make the Marlins reduce their demands for Realmuto? Ramos. - ( New Window )



Things went horribly wrong if Ramos is the OD catcher



That would seem to imply it's Realmuto or Grandal. I really hope it's the latter, I have a very bad feeling any Realmuto trade will make the seattle trade look like small potatoes.


No Shecky is a big defensive cacher guy. He probably was a catcher. Im guessing he simply doesnt like Ramos. Older and offensive minded.
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