NY Times simulator
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If Giants win out, they have 6% chance for 2nd wild card (#6 seed) and 94% chance of missing playoffs.
To get second wild card, need the following:
Giants win out
AND
PHI and WAS have to lose 2. Since they play each other in week 17, one of them will need to have 2 losses in the next 2 games (exception is that PHI loses 1 + WAS loses 1 + PHI/WAS tie works)
AND
Carolina loses 2
AND
TB loses 1 OR DET loses 1
AND
GB loses 1
AND
MIN loses 2
Remaining schedules:
PHI: at LAR, HOU, at WAS
WAS: at JAC, at TEN, PHI
CAR: NO, ATL, at NO
TB: at BAL, at DAL, ATL
DET: at BUF, MIN, at GB
GB: at CHI, at NYG, DET
MIN: MIA, at DET, CHI
If the Giants beat TEN, they can't be eliminated next week. They would stay alive until week 16.
A strange scenario would be making it to week 17 but having a PHI-WAS tie as one of the requirements.
Need det to win out. Bucs will lose one.
I can see eagles and skins losing 2 each. Saints prob beat Carolina twice.
Minny getting two Ls will be tough. They will lose to chi but dunno if they have another loss altho cousins doesn't look good
Need det to win out.
DET winning out would be bad for the Giants.
My impression from the Times' simulator is that, if both Bears and Dallas win their next two games, Dallas will likely win the seeding tiebreaker with a Week 17 win and a Week 17 Bears' loss.
Avoiding the Seahawks and playing whoever stumbles into the last WC spot is likely to be attractive.
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Need det to win out.
DET winning out would be bad for the Giants.
In the scenario he described (TB losing 1) then DET winning out wouldn't matter, right? I think he's saying we need DET to win out because he's assuming they're going to beat Buffalo, and if they win out from there they would help eliminate MIN and GB.
Or maybe he misunderstood and thought one of TB and DET needs to win out and the other needs to lose 1, I don't know. I think Bucs will lose one of their next two and I think GB will lose to the Bears so I don't think we'll have to worry about that GB DET game anyway. I will be rooting hard for DET to beat MIN though, the Vikings are the one team that I can definitely see winning 2 of the last 3 which is good that they stunk it up tonight on MNF.
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In comment 14213929 BleedBlue said:
Quote:
Need det to win out.
DET winning out would be bad for the Giants.
In the scenario he described (TB losing 1) then DET winning out wouldn't matter, right? I think he's saying we need DET to win out because he's assuming they're going to beat Buffalo, and if they win out from there they would help eliminate MIN and GB.
It is true that DET overall has the ability to help the Giants. Maybe he's thinking a DET-BUF win keeps DET interested. With a TB loss DET wins don't hurt.
Sure, I'm aware I'm showing a conditional probability. It's not meant to convey optimism - it's just that without assuming the necessary win out by NYG you don't get much interesting info from the simulator.
Thank you for pointing this out, LoT!
i looked at ny times. it is 1 pct. appreciate the breakdowns you have provided. given how snarky this place is i should have been more clear....
i looked at ny times. it is 1 pct. appreciate the breakdowns you have provided. given how snarky this place is i should have been more clear....
no problem, I'm very literal-minded :)
Eagles @ LAR
Panthers vs. Saints
GB @ Chicago
Skins @ Jags
Bucs @ BALT
Of those games I give GB the best chance with Rodgers obviously, but no small task against that D.
MIA-Minny and DET-BUF are more tossups.
If they won either of those, they would be right in this in a totally different way.
Winning the next 3 for them is hard enough let alone having the tower things happen.
Rams and Texans will likely be favorites over the Eagles.
Redskins may not be favored in another game this season.
Saints will be favorites twice over the Panthers.
Bucs will be underdogs at Dallas.
Bears will be favorites over Vikings.
We need one win from a underdog Vikes opponent next two weeks and the rest is chalk!
(Yes I know the odds of 8 favorites all winning isn’t remotely close to a likelihood)
Bears will be favorites over Vikings.
Not if Bears are locked into their playoff seed, which has a strong chance of happening.
If Bears beat Packers this week and Dallas loses to Colts, it's almost ordained.
the answer is yes.
the answer is yes.
Yes, that is what I meant. Thanks Ray.