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Staying alive (after SEA win over MIN)

ray in arlington : 12/10/2018 11:11 pm
NY Times simulator
===================
If Giants win out, they have 6% chance for 2nd wild card (#6 seed) and 94% chance of missing playoffs.


To get second wild card, need the following:


Giants win out

AND

PHI and WAS have to lose 2. Since they play each other in week 17, one of them will need to have 2 losses in the next 2 games (exception is that PHI loses 1 + WAS loses 1 + PHI/WAS tie works)

AND

Carolina loses 2

AND

TB loses 1 OR DET loses 1

AND

GB loses 1

AND

MIN loses 2

Remaining schedules:
PHI: at LAR, HOU, at WAS
WAS: at JAC, at TEN, PHI
CAR: NO, ATL, at NO
TB: at BAL, at DAL, ATL

DET: at BUF, MIN, at GB
GB: at CHI, at NYG, DET
MIN: MIA, at DET, CHI


If the Giants beat TEN, they can't be eliminated next week. They would stay alive until week 16.

A strange scenario would be making it to week 17 but having a PHI-WAS tie as one of the requirements.
.  
BleedBlue : 12/10/2018 11:19 pm : link

Need det to win out. Bucs will lose one.

I can see eagles and skins losing 2 each. Saints prob beat Carolina twice.

Minny getting two Ls will be tough. They will lose to chi but dunno if they have another loss altho cousins doesn't look good
RE: .  
ray in arlington : 12/10/2018 11:21 pm : link
In comment 14213929 BleedBlue said:
Quote:

Need det to win out.


DET winning out would be bad for the Giants.
so what are odds of giants winning out  
hassan : 12/10/2018 11:58 pm : link
20 pct? if that? makes this a 1 pct overall chance? wondering if you know that Ray.....
If things are still alive Week 17  
shyster : 12/10/2018 11:59 pm : link
then the motivation of the Bears vs the Vikings and Dallas vs the Giants, assuming both have their divisions wrapped up, will matter greatly.

My impression from the Times' simulator is that, if both Bears and Dallas win their next two games, Dallas will likely win the seeding tiebreaker with a Week 17 win and a Week 17 Bears' loss.

Avoiding the Seahawks and playing whoever stumbles into the last WC spot is likely to be attractive.
RE: RE: .  
Leg of Theismann : 12/10/2018 11:59 pm : link
In comment 14213931 ray in arlington said:
Quote:
In comment 14213929 BleedBlue said:


Quote:



Need det to win out.



DET winning out would be bad for the Giants.


In the scenario he described (TB losing 1) then DET winning out wouldn't matter, right? I think he's saying we need DET to win out because he's assuming they're going to beat Buffalo, and if they win out from there they would help eliminate MIN and GB.

Or maybe he misunderstood and thought one of TB and DET needs to win out and the other needs to lose 1, I don't know. I think Bucs will lose one of their next two and I think GB will lose to the Bears so I don't think we'll have to worry about that GB DET game anyway. I will be rooting hard for DET to beat MIN though, the Vikings are the one team that I can definitely see winning 2 of the last 3 which is good that they stunk it up tonight on MNF.
one slight typo...  
Leg of Theismann : 12/11/2018 12:01 am : link
GB plays NYJ in week 16, not NYG.
.  
jcn56 : 12/11/2018 12:04 am : link
I dont think the Redskins are winning another game this year  
BH28 : 12/11/2018 12:34 am : link
so Philly better lose to the Rams.
Amazing we are still in this  
montanagiant : 12/11/2018 1:12 am : link
I for one am loving the fire we are getting out of the younger players
RE: RE: RE: .  
ray in arlington : 12/11/2018 6:35 am : link
In comment 14213967 Leg of Theismann said:
Quote:
In comment 14213931 ray in arlington said:


Quote:


In comment 14213929 BleedBlue said:


Quote:



Need det to win out.



DET winning out would be bad for the Giants.

In the scenario he described (TB losing 1) then DET winning out wouldn't matter, right? I think he's saying we need DET to win out because he's assuming they're going to beat Buffalo, and if they win out from there they would help eliminate MIN and GB.




It is true that DET overall has the ability to help the Giants. Maybe he's thinking a DET-BUF win keeps DET interested. With a TB loss DET wins don't hurt.



RE: so what are odds of giants winning out  
ray in arlington : 12/11/2018 6:40 am : link
In comment 14213965 hassan said:
Quote:
20 pct? if that? makes this a 1 pct overall chance? wondering if you know that Ray.....


Sure, I'm aware I'm showing a conditional probability. It's not meant to convey optimism - it's just that without assuming the necessary win out by NYG you don't get much interesting info from the simulator.
One point worth mentioning  
ray in arlington : 12/11/2018 6:43 am : link
is that if PHI and WAS win next week, the scenarios that get the Giants in all involve a PHI-WAS tie. This is implied by my statement that one of them has to lose 2 before week 17 if there is a decisive result in week 17.
RE: one slight typo...  
ray in arlington : 12/11/2018 6:47 am : link
In comment 14213970 Leg of Theismann said:
Quote:
GB plays NYJ in week 16, not NYG.


Thank you for pointing this out, LoT!
Again Ray  
joeinpa : 12/11/2018 7:08 am : link
Thanks
ray  
hassan : 12/11/2018 7:17 am : link
you misnunderstood my tone-those where all earnest questions!

i looked at ny times. it is 1 pct. appreciate the breakdowns you have provided. given how snarky this place is i should have been more clear....
RE: ray  
ray in arlington : 12/11/2018 7:25 am : link
In comment 14214064 hassan said:
Quote:
you misnunderstood my tone-those where all earnest questions!

i looked at ny times. it is 1 pct. appreciate the breakdowns you have provided. given how snarky this place is i should have been more clear....



no problem, I'm very literal-minded :)
It's amazing that we are still in this  
Doomster : 12/11/2018 7:45 am : link
with this defense.....a good qb shreds this defense....we have not faced one in awhile....
It will be Vikings or Eagles  
jeff57 : 12/11/2018 7:49 am : link
.
It depends on this weekend IMO  
Chris684 : 12/11/2018 8:25 am : link
For the most part, we are with the odds in the games we need.

Eagles @ LAR
Panthers vs. Saints
GB @ Chicago
Skins @ Jags
Bucs @ BALT

Of those games I give GB the best chance with Rodgers obviously, but no small task against that D.

MIA-Minny and DET-BUF are more tossups.
Makes the Philly loss  
upstatenyg : 12/11/2018 11:35 am : link
And Carolina loss earlier in the season more enraging

If they won either of those, they would be right in this in a totally different way.

Winning the next 3 for them is hard enough let alone having the tower things happen.
Chalk outcomes almost get us there...  
Azul Grande : 12/11/2018 11:54 am : link
Where it gets crazy for me, is that if you assume the giants win out, which would not be “chalk,” the rest of what we need is the favored outcome.

Rams and Texans will likely be favorites over the Eagles.
Redskins may not be favored in another game this season.
Saints will be favorites twice over the Panthers.
Bucs will be underdogs at Dallas.
Bears will be favorites over Vikings.

We need one win from a underdog Vikes opponent next two weeks and the rest is chalk!

(Yes I know the odds of 8 favorites all winning isn’t remotely close to a likelihood)
RE: Chalk outcomes almost get us there...  
shyster : 12/11/2018 12:04 pm : link
In comment 14214556 Azul Grande said:
Quote:

Bears will be favorites over Vikings.



Not if Bears are locked into their playoff seed, which has a strong chance of happening.

If Bears beat Packers this week and Dallas loses to Colts, it's almost ordained.
If some how some way  
ThatLimerickGuy : 12/11/2018 12:06 pm : link
the Giants show up against Tennessee this weekend and really push them around then we can start to dream.

So is the correct takeway  
tikimvp : 12/14/2018 11:09 pm : link
that the effective elimination scenario that exists for this weekend is if WAS and PHI both win?
If by effective elimination scenario  
ray in arlington : 12/14/2018 11:11 pm : link
you mean that a tie in the PHI-WAS game is required,

the answer is yes.
RE: If by effective elimination scenario  
tikimvp : 12/14/2018 11:13 pm : link
In comment 14219160 ray in arlington said:
Quote:
you mean that a tie in the PHI-WAS game is required,

the answer is yes.


Yes, that is what I meant. Thanks Ray.
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