on Hicks inclusion in any deal. Hicks and two years of Realmuto is the minimal return to send Syndergaard to the Bronx. I still wouldn't do the deal from Mets POV.
sorry he's 2nd in baseball in FIP over that time. 2nd! Lower FIP than Sale, (granted far less innings both due to when he came up and his injury) but 2.66 FIP. Link - ( New Window )
He ain't Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. He has overwhelming stuff but hasn't yet made the jump from very good starter to great Cy Young candidate.
He has 3 years of control at lower $ and is the same age as Sale when he got traded. Is there a pitcher (under 30) closer to Sale since that trade than Syndergaard? Cole had 2 years remaining and was coming off a 4 era. Syndergaard was worth 4.2 fwar last year in 25 starts (Sale was worth 4.9 the year before he was traded).
the only knock is that he's hit 180 IP once, and it's his highest total by about 30 IP.
has not yet shown to be a work-horse.
not a major issue, but if there's a knock, that's it.
For sure. But he's also only 26. It's not like this is year 8 of his career. No major surgeries. He's as dominant as any other top pitcher in the game when he pitches and again it's not like he has major red flags injury wise.
on Hicks inclusion in any deal. Hicks and two years of Realmuto is the minimal return to send Syndergaard to the Bronx. I still wouldn't do the deal from Mets POV.
Hicks, not Andujar? Hicks is 29 going on 30 and I think is FA next year, no?
Who plays CF? You can't put Gardner out there every day at age 36. Judge might be able to be adequate in center but there's no way they want him running that much.
sorry he's 2nd in baseball in FIP over that time. 2nd! Lower FIP than Sale, (granted far less innings both due to when he came up and his injury) but 2.66 FIP. Link - ( New Window )
Whenever the "Syndergaard is overrated" narrative gets passed around I feel like this:
Not happening. Cannot see Yanks giving up 2 starters. How do they replace Hicks' defense? I can see one, but not both and that is not to diminish Syndergaard's worth. He is likely a #1. But that opens two holes for the Yanks. Yes Machado will fill the infield hole favorably. But unless there is another starting CF laying around, it would be hard to lose Hicks. And there is little chance the Yanks go for both Machado and Harper.
Not happening. Cannot see Yanks giving up 2 starters. How do they replace Hicks' defense? I can see one, but not both and that is not to diminish Syndergaard's worth. He is likely a #1. But that opens two holes for the Yanks. Yes Machado will fill the infield hole favorably. But unless there is another starting CF laying around, it would be hard to lose Hicks. And there is little chance the Yanks go for both Machado and Harper.
I don't disagree, but I guess it would all depend on how close they thought Florial was. I believe he's still a year or 2 away so I'm not sure how the Yankees could make it work.
Who plays CF? You can't put Gardner out there every day at age 36. Judge might be able to be adequate in center but there's no way they want him running that much.
How quickly you forget the fully rested, $153 million secret weapon we have in the arsenal.
He pitches in a huge park in a really weak division in the weaker league.
FIP- is league and park adjusted so if you prefer using that, since 2016 he's #1 in baseball
"● ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP- are park and league adjusted. They control for home park and your specific leagues average ERA, FIP, or xFIP."
There are no numbers other than innings pitched in which Syndergaard can be argued has been anything worse than a top 10-15 SP in baseball. They don't exist. Link - ( New Window )
Yankees get Syndergaard and a Mets minor leaguer like Cheech, Lindsay, or Mauricio
Mets get Realmuto and Aaron Hicks (MUST be in the deal)
Marlins get Andujar, Loaisiga, Green
I still hate it, and the Yankees giving up Hicks, Andujar, Loaisiga, and Green sounds like a lot, but if you're getting back Thor and going to sign Machado, it's not crazy.
For the Mets, getting Realmuto AND Hicks make the deal not batshit crazy.
Why would the Yankees trade Hicks? There is no reason for them to do so. If anything, the Mets are the ones pursuing Realmuto which is triggering all this. And would make sense for the Sherman rumor that the Yankees are saying they will just go ahead and deal for him themselves since they actually have the pieces the Marlins want, not the Mets. Mets need a 3rd team to make it work. It might be because the Mets want a Hicks and the Yankees are telling them to stuff it.
Matt, the Mets aren't going to trade Noah Syndergaard and his 3 years of control for just J.T. Realmuto. Never going to happen. There HAS to be another legit piece coming back.
I don't necessarily disagree with you. That's why I said the Sherman rumor of the Yankees dealing for Realmuto directly and moving Sanchez to DH made no sense to me. It sounded like a warning to the Mets that if they want Realmuto that badly, the Yankees aren't going to give up additional players like a Hicks or maybe some other prospect. I don't see the Yankees trading Hicks. Again, the Mets are the team who is trying to land Realmuto here as the pivot point. Their problem is that they don't have what the Marlins want to make it happen so they need a 3rd team. If it's not the Yankees, it'll be someone else. But I don't see the Yankees giving up Hicks.
Who plays CF? You can't put Gardner out there every day at age 36. Judge might be able to be adequate in center but there's no way they want him running that much.
How quickly you forget the fully rested, $153 million secret weapon we have in the arsenal.
Cannot imagine how I forget that weapon..I am ashamed of myself.
Who plays CF? You can't put Gardner out there every day at age 36. Judge might be able to be adequate in center but there's no way they want him running that much.
You can dust off Jacoby Ellsbury for all I care, frankly, that's still not in any way an overpay for Syndergaard.
Who plays CF? You can't put Gardner out there every day at age 36. Judge might be able to be adequate in center but there's no way they want him running that much.
You can dust off Jacoby Ellsbury for all I care, frankly, that's still not in any way an overpay for Syndergaard.
There you go then, Andujar and Ellsbury for Syndergaard!
trade is an excellent framework for what a Syndergaard trade should look like. Sale had 5 years of excellent numbers to Thor's 3 but Syndergaards age compared to Sale sort of even it out and both had minor dings to their durability makeup. Sale had early career shoulder questions but at the time of the trade had 5 years of about 30 starts a season and 3 200+ inning seasons, Syndergaard having less elbow / shoulder concerns than Sale but failing to reach 200 innings. Both have 3 years of team control at the time of the deal.
The Sox gave up the #2 overall & #32 overall prospects in the game as well as a guy rated organizationally 8th and 28th at the time. The equivalent deal would almost be term for term Andujar (not ranked as a prospect anymore, but rookie of the year runner up), Florial - #45 ranked prospect, and maybe Loiasiga - #66 ranked & someone like a Ryder Green or other lower end 4th piece with upside. This upgrades the back end of the deal the Sox made as Loaisiga is light years better than the two throw ins in the Sale trade to make up for the slightly lower ranked Florial than Kopech. However you divvy up those four players between the Mets and the Marlins, that would be what a fair offer from the Yankees would be to receive Syndergaard.
Steve, big difference between Moncada and Andujar though.
Moncada was a prospect, Andujar is not. He has already proven to be an MLB caliber player and a great one at that. Guy had 47 doubles and 27 HR's as a rookie. His value is way higher than that of Moncada, IMO.
for wanting Sale to be the comp, but he had 3 200+ IP seasons plus another one at 192 IP at the time he was traded. He was a sure-fire, bona fide, work horse ace at the time he was traded. (In the AL, to boot.)
Not saying Noah can't get there, but he's a riskier player right now than Sale was at the time of the trade.
is not a proper comp. He put up his numbers in the AL and they were all better. I don't know what a proper comp would be for Thor speaking in terms of his production and contract, but Sale isn't it.
a Yankee fan by the way.... not a Met fan trying to make the Noah / Sale comp. I do agree I think Andujar is worth more currently than Moncada was then, I was more trying to make the point that some of those here who think the Yanks would need to add Hicks in the deal to make it even are overvaluing Syndergaard. An Andujar / Florial / Hicks deal is significantly more than Sale fetched and I dont think Syndergaard is worth more than Sale.
@Joelsherman1
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#Padres have been told by #Marlins they have prospect inventory to get Realmuto but have not been told yet by Mia what combo would need to be.
RE: Think Syndergaard is being overvalued here, frankly
or at least not me is suggesting Syndergaard = Sale.
But you have to have a bar and there are not a lot of 26 year old top of the rotation pitchers who get traded.
call him an ace, call him a #1, call him top of the rotation. It's irrelevant. He throws 100 and has a 12 to 6 curveball. He hasn't even really put together a season that has matched his stuff yet and DMM showed you his FIP and FIP results.
So Sale is used as a comp not indicating the two pitchers are clones, but to see what it cost for the Sox to acquire Sale and evaluate the proposed return for Syndergaard accordingly.
And now is very different than then. At the time Sox fans and media were questioning was it an overpay. Moncada was #1 or #2 prospect in baseball. Today some of the bloom is off that rose and who knows if Moncada pans out, but that's the risk with prospects. but the price was steep even if it turns out poorly for the White Sox.
Mets acquired Santana, but that was a long time ago and the Mets immediately negotiated a massive extension for Santana so it's not apples to apples either but the Twins wound up with garbage for Santana (though Carlos Gomez later excelled, just not with the Twins).
Anyway, people get hung up on stuff, but the point is not to say Syndergaard = Sale.
Scherzer is another decent comp, but when he was traded, at a similar age, he had less credentials.
Maybe there are others too, I am sure there are, but not a ton.
There just aren't a lot of examples, so people look to the ones they have to compare and adjust in their minds what a fair trade looks like.
Personally, no way I trade Syndergaard for the names mentioned and it could be the established player version of prospect hugging, but I think he's more valuable to the Mets and the makeup of their team than the guys mentioned in return for him.
One negative I will say about him though is Syndergaard doesn't seem like he's improving. He's great as is without improvement, but seems to have plateaud IMO and some say he's hasn't "learned to pitch" and I see that a little.
I expected after his first year or two he'd become unhittable as he evolved, but he has remained the same (which of course is pretty damn good)
It's not prospect hugging when he's been that good in the MLs already.
Link - ( New Window )
2nd in FIP
14th in fWAR
4th in era
I mean what exactly is the argument against him?
He's been absolutely dominant, missed some time. Was 11th in FIP second half last year. He's a borderline ace that has ace stuff and is 26.
He has 3 years of control at lower $ and is the same age as Sale when he got traded. Is there a pitcher (under 30) closer to Sale since that trade than Syndergaard? Cole had 2 years remaining and was coming off a 4 era. Syndergaard was worth 4.2 fwar last year in 25 starts (Sale was worth 4.9 the year before he was traded).
has not yet shown to be a work-horse.
not a major issue, but if there's a knock, that's it.
Pitcher 1) 2.71 FIP, 2.85 era
Pitcher 2) 2.97 FIP, 2.77 era
Pitcher 3) 2.93 FIP, 2.67 era
Pitcher 4) 2.42 FIP, 2.81 era
One of these is Noah Syndergaard.
has not yet shown to be a work-horse.
not a major issue, but if there's a knock, that's it.
For sure. But he's also only 26. It's not like this is year 8 of his career. No major surgeries. He's as dominant as any other top pitcher in the game when he pitches and again it's not like he has major red flags injury wise.
he's a huge asset, no question.
Hicks, not Andujar? Hicks is 29 going on 30 and I think is FA next year, no?
Whenever the "Syndergaard is overrated" narrative gets passed around I feel like this:
Not happening. Cannot see Yanks giving up 2 starters. How do they replace Hicks' defense? I can see one, but not both and that is not to diminish Syndergaard's worth. He is likely a #1. But that opens two holes for the Yanks. Yes Machado will fill the infield hole favorably. But unless there is another starting CF laying around, it would be hard to lose Hicks. And there is little chance the Yanks go for both Machado and Harper.
Quote:
in addition to Andujar.
Not happening. Cannot see Yanks giving up 2 starters. How do they replace Hicks' defense? I can see one, but not both and that is not to diminish Syndergaard's worth. He is likely a #1. But that opens two holes for the Yanks. Yes Machado will fill the infield hole favorably. But unless there is another starting CF laying around, it would be hard to lose Hicks. And there is little chance the Yanks go for both Machado and Harper.
I don't disagree, but I guess it would all depend on how close they thought Florial was. I believe he's still a year or 2 away so I'm not sure how the Yankees could make it work.
How quickly you forget the fully rested, $153 million secret weapon we have in the arsenal.
FIP- is league and park adjusted so if you prefer using that, since 2016 he's #1 in baseball
"● ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP- are park and league adjusted. They control for home park and your specific leagues average ERA, FIP, or xFIP."
There are no numbers other than innings pitched in which Syndergaard can be argued has been anything worse than a top 10-15 SP in baseball. They don't exist.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14214613 allstarjim said:
Quote:
The trade, IMV, would be:
Yankees get Syndergaard and a Mets minor leaguer like Cheech, Lindsay, or Mauricio
Mets get Realmuto and Aaron Hicks (MUST be in the deal)
Marlins get Andujar, Loaisiga, Green
I still hate it, and the Yankees giving up Hicks, Andujar, Loaisiga, and Green sounds like a lot, but if you're getting back Thor and going to sign Machado, it's not crazy.
For the Mets, getting Realmuto AND Hicks make the deal not batshit crazy.
Why would the Yankees trade Hicks? There is no reason for them to do so. If anything, the Mets are the ones pursuing Realmuto which is triggering all this. And would make sense for the Sherman rumor that the Yankees are saying they will just go ahead and deal for him themselves since they actually have the pieces the Marlins want, not the Mets. Mets need a 3rd team to make it work. It might be because the Mets want a Hicks and the Yankees are telling them to stuff it.
Matt, the Mets aren't going to trade Noah Syndergaard and his 3 years of control for just J.T. Realmuto. Never going to happen. There HAS to be another legit piece coming back.
I don't necessarily disagree with you. That's why I said the Sherman rumor of the Yankees dealing for Realmuto directly and moving Sanchez to DH made no sense to me. It sounded like a warning to the Mets that if they want Realmuto that badly, the Yankees aren't going to give up additional players like a Hicks or maybe some other prospect. I don't see the Yankees trading Hicks. Again, the Mets are the team who is trying to land Realmuto here as the pivot point. Their problem is that they don't have what the Marlins want to make it happen so they need a 3rd team. If it's not the Yankees, it'll be someone else. But I don't see the Yankees giving up Hicks.
Quote:
Who plays CF? You can't put Gardner out there every day at age 36. Judge might be able to be adequate in center but there's no way they want him running that much.
How quickly you forget the fully rested, $153 million secret weapon we have in the arsenal.
Cannot imagine how I forget that weapon..I am ashamed of myself.
You can dust off Jacoby Ellsbury for all I care, frankly, that's still not in any way an overpay for Syndergaard.
Quote:
Who plays CF? You can't put Gardner out there every day at age 36. Judge might be able to be adequate in center but there's no way they want him running that much.
You can dust off Jacoby Ellsbury for all I care, frankly, that's still not in any way an overpay for Syndergaard.
There you go then, Andujar and Ellsbury for Syndergaard!
2nd in FIP
14th in fWAR
4th in era
I mean what exactly is the argument against him?
He's been absolutely dominant, missed some time. Was 11th in FIP second half last year. He's a borderline ace that has ace stuff and is 26.
Its Greg, his argument against him is that hes not a Yankee.
It doesn't, you said who plays CF for the Yankees if they trade Hicks, that's why I mentioned Ellsbury.
The Sox gave up the #2 overall & #32 overall prospects in the game as well as a guy rated organizationally 8th and 28th at the time. The equivalent deal would almost be term for term Andujar (not ranked as a prospect anymore, but rookie of the year runner up), Florial - #45 ranked prospect, and maybe Loiasiga - #66 ranked & someone like a Ryder Green or other lower end 4th piece with upside. This upgrades the back end of the deal the Sox made as Loaisiga is light years better than the two throw ins in the Sale trade to make up for the slightly lower ranked Florial than Kopech. However you divvy up those four players between the Mets and the Marlins, that would be what a fair offer from the Yankees would be to receive Syndergaard.
Not saying Noah can't get there, but he's a riskier player right now than Sale was at the time of the trade.
I'm always leery of pitchers moving from the NL to the AL.
What did you expect?
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@Joelsherman1
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#Padres have been told by #Marlins they have prospect inventory to get Realmuto but have not been told yet by Mia what combo would need to be.
Least shocking post of the thread.
But you have to have a bar and there are not a lot of 26 year old top of the rotation pitchers who get traded.
call him an ace, call him a #1, call him top of the rotation. It's irrelevant. He throws 100 and has a 12 to 6 curveball. He hasn't even really put together a season that has matched his stuff yet and DMM showed you his FIP and FIP results.
So Sale is used as a comp not indicating the two pitchers are clones, but to see what it cost for the Sox to acquire Sale and evaluate the proposed return for Syndergaard accordingly.
And now is very different than then. At the time Sox fans and media were questioning was it an overpay. Moncada was #1 or #2 prospect in baseball. Today some of the bloom is off that rose and who knows if Moncada pans out, but that's the risk with prospects. but the price was steep even if it turns out poorly for the White Sox.
Mets acquired Santana, but that was a long time ago and the Mets immediately negotiated a massive extension for Santana so it's not apples to apples either but the Twins wound up with garbage for Santana (though Carlos Gomez later excelled, just not with the Twins).
Anyway, people get hung up on stuff, but the point is not to say Syndergaard = Sale.
Scherzer is another decent comp, but when he was traded, at a similar age, he had less credentials.
Maybe there are others too, I am sure there are, but not a ton.
There just aren't a lot of examples, so people look to the ones they have to compare and adjust in their minds what a fair trade looks like.
Personally, no way I trade Syndergaard for the names mentioned and it could be the established player version of prospect hugging, but I think he's more valuable to the Mets and the makeup of their team than the guys mentioned in return for him.
One negative I will say about him though is Syndergaard doesn't seem like he's improving. He's great as is without improvement, but seems to have plateaud IMO and some say he's hasn't "learned to pitch" and I see that a little.
I expected after his first year or two he'd become unhittable as he evolved, but he has remained the same (which of course is pretty damn good)
right, that's why I said it's the established player version of prospect hugging.
FFS