NFT: Familia returns to the Mets, 3 years, 30 million

I really like this move.

to spend still for an Andrew Miller, but I don�t like the third year given some of the known issues and concerns with Familias arm/shoulder.

love with the contract it's ok considering that. Diaz, Familia, Lugo and Gsellman - that's as good at the top end of any bullpen the Mets have ever had. Maybe better.

.

Don�t think it is an overpay at all. Now go get Miller and Grandal.

Don't love 3 years, surprised he didn't hold out to find a closing job. Market must have told him otherwise.

And what relievers like Anthony Swarzak are making, I don�t mind this deal. I just hope getting the old gang back together isn�t the offseason strategy yet again.

to dump on Gsellman but "dynamic"? Maybe in 2016. Hasn't been in a while.

In comment 14216733 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Don't love 3 years, surprised he didn't hold out to find a closing job. Market must have told him otherwise.

It is possible that his demand over 2 years might have been $24 Million or more so it was sold to the Wilpons as you are getting that plus a discounted third year. Probably didn�t hold out for a closing job because the teams that had that need don�t exactly have strong bullpens so he feared being overused as the only trustworthy option.

Miller is still an option. Can't see that kind of commitment on 2 RP. We'll see how it's structured but it seems unlikely.

In comment 14216736 Mike in NY said:

Quote:

In comment 14216733 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Don't love 3 years, surprised he didn't hold out to find a closing job. Market must have told him otherwise. It is possible that his demand over 2 years might have been $24 Million or more so it was sold to the Wilpons as you are getting that plus a discounted third year. Probably didn�t hold out for a closing job because the teams that had that need don�t exactly have strong bullpens so he feared being overused as the only trustworthy option.

I suspect Familia is no longer a big money pitcher once this deal is up. In fact I'd be pretty shocked if he was. Seems like a guy who would have and did take the most money possible. I'd be very surprised if 3 years from now we are worried about signing him etc. In fact not being a downer I suspect year 3 is already iffy given his arm health etc.

suggested on twitter, I 100% could see Kay headed to Texas for Claudio or something like that. A cheaper lefty option.

Dodgers

for 25 for Joe Kelly

Familia was really good last year. Wanted Miller or Robertson but Familia was arguably better.

can't believe how many Mets fans are okay giving Miller 4 years. That's absolutely nuts. He's 34 in May coming off a down year. 4 years would be absurd for the Mets.

the better player.

Jarrett Seidler
‏

@jaseidler
Following Following @jaseidler
More
Replying to @WexlerRules
as opposed to Familia who blew his shoulder and hasn�t been good, throwing as hard, or using his best pitch since

We�re both making close to 10 AAV last year and Kimbrel is asking for 100 million, it�s hard not to like this price too.

This is a big market move.

Super pen could lead to Lugo in the rotation...

We need another bat.

C, CF?

In comment 14216760 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Jarrett Seidler ‏ @jaseidler Following Following @jaseidler More Replying to @WexlerRules as opposed to Familia who blew his shoulder and hasn�t been good, throwing as hard, or using his best pitch since

When did Familia blow out his shoulder? I thought it was a blood clot issue in his shoulder that forced him to miss time.

This is a shrewd move, it doesnt cost a draft pick because Oakland couldnt offer a QO. Jerry probably could have got more on the open market, but took a discount to come home.

He had a clot removed and also was averaging almost 97 on his fastball last year.

I get it that some fans don't like bringing back old players, but he is coming back as a set up guy instead of a closer. This might be one of the best 1-2 punches at the back end of the bullpen that I can remember as a Mets fan.

He had an excellent season setting up assuming he is still in the pen. I�d love another piece but the pen has been dramatically upgraded.

and I will be there opening day..

Would love another OF bat, but can live without it for now.

Familia is an average closer and that should lead to him being an above average setup man. He actually posted his best k/9 of his career last year, so I'm not too worried about his shoulder. W

We're getting his age 29, 30, 31 seasons so he's not particularly risky himself, it's just that a third year to any reliever can end up hurting you. That's the price you have to pay when you can't develop your own bullpen guys in-house. We can thank Sandy Alderson for that.

Is now the 7th inning guy?

That�s a good pen. I hope Lugo returns to the rotation

In comment 14216827 debo_GIANTS said:

Quote:

and I will be there opening day.. Would love another OF bat, but can live without it for now.

Add Hamilton to the list

In comment 14216842 spike said:

Quote:

Is now the 7th inning guy? That�s a good pen. I hope Lugo returns to the rotation

I really don�t see any way Vargas is not the 5th starter unless there�s other moves. I got Lugo in the seventh.

debo_GIANTS said:

Quote:

and I will be there opening day.. Would love another OF bat, but can live without it for now.

+1

If they can sign Miller and Grandal, it renews my interest in the Mets again.

Any rumors on what Grandal is looking for? He already turned down a one year $17.9 million qualifying offer.

In comment 14216843 spike said:

Quote:

In comment 14216827 debo_GIANTS said: Quote: and I will be there opening day.. Would love another OF bat, but can live without it for now. Add Hamilton to the list

Billy Hamilton? He went to KC

They'll use their resources to upgrade catcher and cf.

I hate to shit on the guy but when was the last time Gsellman was "dynamic"? Every team in baseball has Gsellman types in their pen and nobody is wowed by them. It's not a big deal but Gsellman hasn't been anything but filler since 2016.

really think the Texas talks were for Alex Claudio. Something silly like Kay for Claudio wouldn't shock me.

sign Grandal. Justin Wilson and Oliver Perez will be more realistic allocation than funds than Miller.

Justin Wilson vs. lefties last year .188/.301/.342 #Mets

and people thought I was nuts! He would be a good pick up but there is just so much negative sentiment from the fan base.

and now gives them a great 1-2 punch at the back end. Not to mention protects them very well in case of injury. Also nice that as a GB pitcher Mickey really has good options depending on what he needs (double play or K).

The only thing I will say slightly negative is that we all know he walks a tightrope, and as a setup guy that may not be ideal because it may take a lot of fortitude for Callaway to not bring Diaz into jams and let Familia work out of them. But if Callaway plans to deploy the match up based BP where there's not 1 set closer every night that's less of an issue.

When Familia's stuff is on he can be as nasty as anyone in baseball - this is a phenomenal signing.

.I'll take Wilson or Ollie + Grandal over Miller and Maldonado or Miller and paying the rumored price on Realmuto. I do not believe a they can afford both a "good" C (barring creating holes dealing for Realmuto which would cost them money anyway) AND another top RP and that's with Lagares in CF at the moment.

suspect the budget allows for one of


Sign another high-end RP like Miller or Robertson
Sign Grandal or Ramos
Sign Pollock


Grandal is the best move available (since Harper/Machado aren't happening).

+ Grandal..

I can live Lagares playing CF and Gsellman pitching the 6th inning, but it forces us to bank on Cespedes returning after the all star break.

In comment 14216889 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

.I'll take Wilson or Ollie + Grandal over Miller and Maldonado or Miller and paying the rumored price on Realmuto. I do not believe a they can afford both a "good" C (barring creating holes dealing for Realmuto which would cost them money anyway) AND another top RP and that's with Lagares in CF at the moment.

sign me up for either option, but my personal preferences right now would probably be Cervelli as C with Varagas offsetting some money, Miller as RP, and then trading Dom for a late bloomer who can provide depth in CF or a late bloomer SP.

In comment 14216894 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

suspect the budget allows for one of Sign another high-end RP like Miller or Robertson Sign Grandal or Ramos Sign Pollock Grandal is the best move available (since Harper/Machado aren't happening).

I think you're right that they probably have 1 more $10m+ move in them. I'd actually be satisfied with any of those 3 and then filling the other 2 needs "cheaply". It's hard for me to peg which of the 3 I'd prefer bc it will depend on contract. 4 years for either Pollock or Grandal wouldn't be ideal and you lose a 2nd round pick so if Miller or Robertson is say 2/24m I think I'd prefer that.

In comment 14216911 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14216894 DanMetroMan said: Quote: suspect the budget allows for one of Sign another high-end RP like Miller or Robertson Sign Grandal or Ramos Sign Pollock Grandal is the best move available (since Harper/Machado aren't happening). I think you're right that they probably have 1 more $10m+ move in them. I'd actually be satisfied with any of those 3 and then filling the other 2 needs "cheaply". It's hard for me to peg which of the 3 I'd prefer bc it will depend on contract. 4 years for either Pollock or Grandal wouldn't be ideal and you lose a 2nd round pick so if Miller or Robertson is say 2/24m I think I'd prefer that.

I'd be blown away if Miller signs for 2 for 24. He's reportedly asking for 4-5 and will almost certainly get 3 if Joe Kelly and Familia got it. Down year or not he's by far the best lefty available and outside of Kimbrel the best resume. 3 for 36-39 is more like it.

In comment 14216903 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14216889 DanMetroMan said: Quote: .I'll take Wilson or Ollie + Grandal over Miller and Maldonado or Miller and paying the rumored price on Realmuto. I do not believe a they can afford both a "good" C (barring creating holes dealing for Realmuto which would cost them money anyway) AND another top RP and that's with Lagares in CF at the moment. sign me up for either option, but my personal preferences right now would probably be Cervelli as C with Varagas offsetting some money, Miller as RP, and then trading Dom for a late bloomer who can provide depth in CF or a late bloomer SP.

If the Pirates are taking back Vargas it means giving up a substantial prospect. In fact, I don't see this realistic at all unless the Mets gave up one of their best prospects. Peterson etc. Why would the Pirates trade Cervelli and take back Vargas otherwise? To save a whopping 1.5 million? Plus as much as he sucks the Mets would have to replace Vargas. Oswalt is not a 30 start MLB pitcher and after him... ?

is owed 10, Cervelli 11.5. This just doesn't make sense for Pittsburgh. Someone like Peterson or Vientos would have to go for sure.

whereas Familia just turned 29. I think he will almost definitely get a higher AAV but I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up with 2 years and an option vs. 3.

Point still stands in relation to the other guys though, as I wouldn't mind giving him 3 years and think even 3/36m is a better value than Pollock or Grandal if they end up in the 4/$65m+ range (while also costing a pick).

with trading Vargas and Peterson for Cervelli (is that value about right?). Use the added cash to sign Britton, Cahill and Pollock. We go into 2019 as NL East favorites even if Philly gets Machado and WSH keeps Harper.

Classic Met fashion that 2 of their profile relievers will be out for substantial periods of time by season opener. While us fans will be roasting the other 2 for underperforming all year and not stepping up to the mythical no2 starter the team has been searching for since 2001.

In comment 14216930 Metnut said:

Quote:

with trading Vargas and Peterson for Cervelli (is that value about right?). Use the added cash to sign Britton, Cahill and Pollock. We go into 2019 as NL East favorites even if Philly gets Machado and WSH keeps Harper.

You are WAY high in what the Mets have to spend. Like not even in the same ballpark. Britton and Pollock alone are going to make close to 30 million. This isn't a realistic plan at all (no offense).

I like Jeurys, great competitor. Definitely need a lefty now.

I would not be surprised to see Lugo back in the rotation, if not at the beginning of the season then sometime later.

Dan, Z, EricLi, other Mets fans, what's your take on the Rosario situation? Doesn't it seem like if Rosario was all it would take for Realmuto that he would already be gone?

Personally, I hate the idea of losing Rosario, even for the promotion of Andres Gimenez, who would still likely finish the 2019 season in the Minors. It also feels like selling low on Rosario, who seems to have had the light go on in the 2nd half. When Rosario connects, he has some pretty good power that I believe might still be developing.

https://www.mlb.com/video/rosarios-leadoff-home-run/c-2392045183

Rosario just turned 23 and although I get Gimenez has upside as well, Rosario could be a 5-tool player. At the very least, I'd like to see Gimenez ace AA ball and perform in AAA as well, and he's done neither yet.

Selling Rosario now and installing a stop-gap SS for a hope-so-in-the-future Gimenez doesn't seem consistent with a win-now team, a team that definitely has a championship window right now, with or without the addition of Realmuto. Give me the somewhat proven, young, controllable, and still blossoming Rosario at least for 2019.

What say you?

In comment 14216925 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

is owed 10, Cervelli 11.5. This just doesn't make sense for Pittsburgh. Someone like Peterson or Vientos would have to go for sure.

a) spotrac says Vargas is 8m and the mets could kick in some of that to move him. I didn't say he'd offset all of Cervelli, obviously Pirates would want to save some money and Vargas is dead weight. Just offset some of it and clear a spot.

b) Nobody is giving up Peterson or Vientos for 1 year of Cervelli. 1 year of Goldschmidt only cost spare parts along the lines of Dom. I don't know what Cervelli would cost but if it's anything more than Dom then you just pivot to Martin - who also has 1 year and we know would be paid down by Toronto big time.

insists the price for Realmuto is Rosario and a second "very big piece" with the Marlins insisting on Conforto. So no thanks.

In comment 14216930 Metnut said:

Quote:

with trading Vargas and Peterson for Cervelli (is that value about right?). Use the added cash to sign Britton, Cahill and Pollock. We go into 2019 as NL East favorites even if Philly gets Machado and WSH keeps Harper.

No mention of the 2018 NL East champs who just added Josh Donaldson and will have a full season of Ronald Acuna Jr.

In comment 14216941 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14216925 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is owed 10, Cervelli 11.5. This just doesn't make sense for Pittsburgh. Someone like Peterson or Vientos would have to go for sure. a) spotrac says Vargas is 8m and the mets could kick in some of that to move him. I didn't say he'd offset all of Cervelli, obviously Pirates would want to save some money and Vargas is dead weight. Just offset some of it and clear a spot. b) Nobody is giving up Peterson or Vientos for 1 year of Cervelli. 1 year of Goldschmidt only cost spare parts along the lines of Dom. I don't know what Cervelli would cost but if it's anything more than Dom then you just pivot to Martin - who also has 1 year and we know would be paid down by Toronto big time.

Vargas is owed 10. 2 million dollar buyout. Spare parts on Goldschmidt? Absolutely not. They didn't get studs but they got a very solid quantity return. Carson Kelly is one of the best C prospects in baseball and will start right away.

Jeff Passan

"
Jeff Passan
✔
@JeffPassan
Source: Arizona Paul Goldschmidt has been traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young and a draft pick are headed back.

Quite a haul for Arizona."

Grandal isn't my favorite option bc of the 2nd round pick, but I would love to see this entire pitching staff add a weapon like him framing the ball behind the plate. If it's worth as much as the analytics say it is it would really just continue amplifying the strength of this roster.

In comment 14216941 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14216925 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is owed 10, Cervelli 11.5. This just doesn't make sense for Pittsburgh. Someone like Peterson or Vientos would have to go for sure. a) spotrac says Vargas is 8m and the mets could kick in some of that to move him. I didn't say he'd offset all of Cervelli, obviously Pirates would want to save some money and Vargas is dead weight. Just offset some of it and clear a spot. b) Nobody is giving up Peterson or Vientos for 1 year of Cervelli. 1 year of Goldschmidt only cost spare parts along the lines of Dom. I don't know what Cervelli would cost but if it's anything more than Dom then you just pivot to Martin - who also has 1 year and we know would be paid down by Toronto big time.

Nobody is giving Peterson or Vientos for Cervelli. Correct. But you are suggesting the Pirates take back Vargas. That changes everything. They save 1.5 million. That's not worth it for Pittsburgh.

In comment 14216942 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

insists the price for Realmuto is Rosario and a second "very big piece" with the Marlins insisting on Conforto. So no thanks.

The Marlins are going to mess this up. Soon teams will pivot towards Grandal and Ramos leaving them with less suitors and leverage. That is a ridiculous ask by Miami once again. It seems that they are traumatized by the terrible Yelich trade.

put it this way. McCutchen just got 3 years 53 million (including his buyout) that's 17.7 per. Show me how the Mets add Pollock, Britton and Cahill unless the payroll is suddenly going WAY WAY up.

In comment 14216934 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 14216930 Metnut said: Quote: with trading Vargas and Peterson for Cervelli (is that value about right?). Use the added cash to sign Britton, Cahill and Pollock. We go into 2019 as NL East favorites even if Philly gets Machado and WSH keeps Harper. You are WAY high in what the Mets have to spend. Like not even in the same ballpark. Britton and Pollock alone are going to make close to 30 million. This isn't a realistic plan at all (no offense).

You're right that I'm almost certainly high on what the Mets will actually spend, but that's more of a wish list and not a prediction.

Above you mentioned that they still had room for (one of) a Britton or Pollock signing. So assume they sign Pollock. You'd think they be just about done there (maybe add a cheap OF or LOOGY too)?

If they add Britton and Cahill that would be another $25M annually? On a $160M payroll, that's about 15%. Hard to say that hoping for 15% more payroll is not in the same ballpark no?

Kelly debuted in the big leagues 2016, he's a year older than Dom, and both of them in very limited opportunity have been worth the same negative fwar's (-1.0). Obviously the scarcity of the catcher position, the fact that they tend to develop later, and the fact that Kelly was behind a better player make Kelly a way more interesting player that Dom. Goldschmidt is obviously 10 stratosphere's beyond Cervelli though.

think they add a C and one "premium" piece whether it's Pollock or another top RP. I'd be absolutely stunned if they do all 3 even if the C is Maldonado. They "have to" add an OF of some sort because they don't have enough to fill out the roster.

either. I wonder if they could find a way to ship him out for salary relief and get McNiel in there every day and free up a little more payroll.

In comment 14216960 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

Kelly debuted in the big leagues 2016, he's a year older than Dom, and both of them in very limited opportunity have been worth the same negative fwar's (-1.0). Obviously the scarcity of the catcher position, the fact that they tend to develop later, and the fact that Kelly was behind a better player make Kelly a way more interesting player that Dom. Goldschmidt is obviously 10 stratosphere's beyond Cervelli though.

Again.. what's in it for Pittsburgh? 1.5 million is nothing. Why wouldn't another team just have then kick in minimal cash? Maldonado is projected to get 6-8. Cervelli is better. There is just no way Pittsburgh is taking back Vargas without the Mets paying a "heavy" talent freight. Just nothing in it for Pittsburgh. 1.5 million is nothing.

In comment 14216951 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 14216941 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 14216925 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is owed 10, Cervelli 11.5. This just doesn't make sense for Pittsburgh. Someone like Peterson or Vientos would have to go for sure. a) spotrac says Vargas is 8m and the mets could kick in some of that to move him. I didn't say he'd offset all of Cervelli, obviously Pirates would want to save some money and Vargas is dead weight. Just offset some of it and clear a spot. b) Nobody is giving up Peterson or Vientos for 1 year of Cervelli. 1 year of Goldschmidt only cost spare parts along the lines of Dom. I don't know what Cervelli would cost but if it's anything more than Dom then you just pivot to Martin - who also has 1 year and we know would be paid down by Toronto big time. Nobody is giving Peterson or Vientos for Cervelli. Correct. But you are suggesting the Pirates take back Vargas. That changes everything. They save 1.5 million. That's not worth it for Pittsburgh.

Your math is wrong - even if they took back all of Vargas' $8m they save $3.5m. If the Mets kick in half of Vargas' contract the Pirates save $7.5m of the $11m (about what they saved trading Nova). The Mets obviously would need to give them a piece as well, but I think it's going to be much closer to the type of player they returned for Nova.

one thinks of Cervelli's 2018. The guy easily gets 2 years 8-10 if he's a FA. The Pirates know this. Vargas does nothing for them other than again... 1.5 million in savings. They would just kick in "some" cash to move him if they were desperate, would still save them more than that.

is my math wrong? Vargas is owed 10, Cervelli 11.5. That's a savings of 1.5 million? What am I missing?

is owed 10 million Eric. Your math is the issue (not being snarky). You keep citing 8. He's owed 10.


2019 36 New York Mets $8,000,000 11.114
2020 37 New York Mets *$8,000,000 $8M Team Option, $2M Buyout.

again. 1.5 million saved. That's chump change. Nobody swaps Cervelli for Vargas for that.

Nova they saved 9.2 million... again I'm really confused on this one and usually I agree with most of what you say.

In comment 14216969 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Again.. what's in it for Pittsburgh? 1.5 million is nothing. Why wouldn't another team just have then kick in minimal cash? Maldonado is projected to get 6-8. Cervelli is better. There is just no way Pittsburgh is taking back Vargas without the Mets paying a "heavy" talent freight. Just nothing in it for Pittsburgh. 1.5 million is nothing.

See my last post - the $1.5m is incorrect. According to spotrac:

Cervelli - $11.5m
Vargas - $8m
= $3.5m

If I were the Mets I'd look to pay down around half the difference that so the Pirates net the same savings they did with the Nova deal - where they practically gave him away.

Cervelli for a net of $7-8m is obviously a better value than Maldonado, though he costs a prospect. But no way should he cost a top 5-10 prospect in anyone's system. The guy they got to save 8m on Nova isn't even in their top 30.

also isn't as valuable as Cervelli to begin with. Nova last 2 seasons 4.51 FIP. He was a flat salary dump.

In comment 14216990 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14216969 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Again.. what's in it for Pittsburgh? 1.5 million is nothing. Why wouldn't another team just have then kick in minimal cash? Maldonado is projected to get 6-8. Cervelli is better. There is just no way Pittsburgh is taking back Vargas without the Mets paying a "heavy" talent freight. Just nothing in it for Pittsburgh. 1.5 million is nothing. See my last post - the $1.5m is incorrect. According to spotrac: Cervelli - $11.5m Vargas - $8m = $3.5m If I were the Mets I'd look to pay down around half the difference that so the Pirates net the same savings they did with the Nova deal - where they practically gave him away. Cervelli for a net of $7-8m is obviously a better value than Maldonado, though he costs a prospect. But no way should he cost a top 5-10 prospect in anyone's system. The guy they got to save 8m on Nova isn't even in their top 30.

Eric.. are you trying to be funny here? VARGAS IS OWED A BUYOUT FOR 2020! I've said it more than once. I'm really confused.

18:$6M, 19:$8M, 20:$8M club option ($2M buyout)

In comment 14216990 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14216969 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Again.. what's in it for Pittsburgh? 1.5 million is nothing. Why wouldn't another team just have then kick in minimal cash? Maldonado is projected to get 6-8. Cervelli is better. There is just no way Pittsburgh is taking back Vargas without the Mets paying a "heavy" talent freight. Just nothing in it for Pittsburgh. 1.5 million is nothing. See my last post - the $1.5m is incorrect. According to spotrac: Cervelli - $11.5m Vargas - $8m = $3.5m If I were the Mets I'd look to pay down around half the difference that so the Pirates net the same savings they did with the Nova deal - where they practically gave him away. Cervelli for a net of $7-8m is obviously a better value than Maldonado, though he costs a prospect. But no way should he cost a top 5-10 prospect in anyone's system. The guy they got to save 8m on Nova isn't even in their top 30.

Your math is incorrect but I'm confused why you can't acknowledge this?

In comment 14216934 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 14216930 Metnut said: Quote: with trading Vargas and Peterson for Cervelli (is that value about right?). Use the added cash to sign Britton, Cahill and Pollock. We go into 2019 as NL East favorites even if Philly gets Machado and WSH keeps Harper. You are WAY high in what the Mets have to spend. Like not even in the same ballpark. Britton and Pollock alone are going to make close to 30 million. This isn't a realistic plan at all (no offense).

So they have met with Adam Jones now, Spotrac has him for $1.5 million more than Pollock (annually?), but I would guess Jones is looking for a 3-year deal as opposed to Pollock wanting the 5-year deal.

I'd prefer Pollock, of course, and wouldn't mind not adding another expensive piece. A combination of in-house Zamora and perhaps a guy like Aaron Loup (I know, uninspiring), or Luis Avilán, sign a Ramos, Grandal, or even Maldonado and call it a day.

Feb. 19: USA Today�s Bob Nightengale tweets that Vargas will earn $6MM in 2018 and $8MM in 2019. The option year is valued at $8MM and comes with a $2MM buyout.

Feb. 16, 1:20pm: Heyman tweets that Vargas will earn an additional $250K for reaching 160, 170, 180, 190, 200 and 210 innings in each season of the deal.



So...

In comment 14216981 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

is owed 10 million Eric. Your math is the issue (not being snarky). You keep citing 8. He's owed 10. 2019 36 New York Mets $8,000,000 11.114 2020 37 New York Mets *$8,000,000 $8M Team Option, $2M Buyout.

I'm not seeing the 2m buyout confirmed anywhere. Spotrac is linked below and here's the article to when he signed on MLB.com - no buyout listed anywhere. It could be and if so add in another 2m from the Mets.
Vargas Contract - ( New Window )

Bob Nightengale
‏
Verified account

@BNightengale
Following Following @BNightengale
More
Jason Vargas will earn $6 million this year with #Mets, $8 million in 2019 with a $8 million option or $2 million buyout in 2020. He can also earn $250,000 each for 160 innings, 170 innings, 180, 190, 200 and 210.

So in theory he actually could be owed 11.5 million if Pittsburgh allowed him to get that far. But a guaranteed ....10 million.

In comment 14217006 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14216981 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is owed 10 million Eric. Your math is the issue (not being snarky). You keep citing 8. He's owed 10. 2019 36 New York Mets $8,000,000 11.114 2020 37 New York Mets *$8,000,000 $8M Team Option, $2M Buyout. I'm not seeing the 2m buyout confirmed anywhere. Spotrac is linked below and here's the article to when he signed on MLB.com - no buyout listed anywhere. It could be and if so add in another 2m from the Mets. Vargas Contract - ( New Window )

The buyout is mentioned EVERYWHERE. Cots, Nightengale, baseballreference.com He has a 2 million dollar buyout.

In comment 14217002 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 14216990 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 14216969 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Again.. what's in it for Pittsburgh? 1.5 million is nothing. Why wouldn't another team just have then kick in minimal cash? Maldonado is projected to get 6-8. Cervelli is better. There is just no way Pittsburgh is taking back Vargas without the Mets paying a "heavy" talent freight. Just nothing in it for Pittsburgh. 1.5 million is nothing. See my last post - the $1.5m is incorrect. According to spotrac: Cervelli - $11.5m Vargas - $8m = $3.5m If I were the Mets I'd look to pay down around half the difference that so the Pirates net the same savings they did with the Nova deal - where they practically gave him away. Cervelli for a net of $7-8m is obviously a better value than Maldonado, though he costs a prospect. But no way should he cost a top 5-10 prospect in anyone's system. The guy they got to save 8m on Nova isn't even in their top 30. Your math is incorrect but I'm confused why you can't acknowledge this?

you originally said his salary was 10m next year which was incorrect when I checked spotrac. I didn't recall there being a buyout, it's also not listed on spotrac, and if there is one that's my bad, but it doesn't seem to be listed or confirmed anywhere.

future owed money (Vargas 8 in 2019, 2 in 2020)
Link - ( New Window )

you are now being dishonest. I NEVER said Vargas 2019 salary was 10 million.

"Vargas
DanMetroMan : 9:46 am : link : reply
is owed 10, Cervelli 11.5. This just doesn't make sense for Pittsburgh. Someone like Peterson or Vientos would have to go for sure."

He is OWED 10 million. That is factual

Avenue

"During the offseason, the Mets signed Vargas to a two-year, $16 million contract with an $8 million option and a $2 million buyout for a third year. Vargas had a 4.16 ERA in 179.2 innings for the Royals last year, but he faded significantly down the stretch and has been a major disappointment so far for the Mets."
Link - ( New Window )

you didn't say his salary was 10m - that's how I interpreted your first comment on the subject bc I didn't recall there being a buyout and it wasn't listed on the site I check. I remembered his salary being 8m and that's where I thought your math was wrong. Either way it's a silly argument over a minor detail of the contract and even my original post included that the mets would pay down some of vargas contract so pitt could save money on the deal. No point in arguing this any further bc I think we both mostly agree and i got caught up on bad math bc the site I used didn't list his option and I misread your initial post. �

$16m / 2 Years (2018 - 2019) + 1 Option Years (Edit)
signed by New York Mets on 2/16/2018 (Free Agent)
2018: $6M, 2019: $8M
2020 Unknown Option: $8M ($2M buyout)
Incentives: $250,000 each for 160 innings, 170, 180, 190, 200 and 210

In comment 14217018 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

you are now being dishonest. I NEVER said Vargas 2019 salary was 10 million. "Vargas DanMetroMan : 9:46 am : link : reply is owed 10, Cervelli 11.5. This just doesn't make sense for Pittsburgh. Someone like Peterson or Vientos would have to go for sure." He is OWED 10 million. That is factual

you are correct - I typed that post without looking at what you actually said and realized I had just misinterpreted.

point is the Pirates would have to pay him 10 million. That's what they would be taking on. Which changes the talent cost significantly vs. someone like Nova where the savings was significant. For a team like Pittsburgh they aren't taking back significant salary to dump an asset without a team giving up actual talent.

moving on because this isn't important. Rule 5 today. They have 4 spot open. Really hope they pluck someone. Martin is probably the most talented name available but he likely won't be there when the Mets pick, nor is he a great fit with Cano/Rosario/McNeil... unless Rosario is a goner.

In comment 14217022 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

$16m / 2 Years (2018 - 2019) + 1 Option Years (Edit) signed by New York Mets on 2/16/2018 (Free Agent) 2018: $6M, 2019: $8M 2020 Unknown Option: $8M ($2M buyout) Incentives: $250,000 each for 160 innings, 170, 180, 190, 200 and 210

You can keep posting all the links I didn't use to check Vargas' contract or you can cut me 1 ounce of slack that the link I did use didn't list it and it's not high treason to not remember an insignificant 2m option on a contract signed 10 months ago.

In comment 14217038 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14217022 DanMetroMan said: Quote: $16m / 2 Years (2018 - 2019) + 1 Option Years (Edit) signed by New York Mets on 2/16/2018 (Free Agent) 2018: $6M, 2019: $8M 2020 Unknown Option: $8M ($2M buyout) Incentives: $250,000 each for 160 innings, 170, 180, 190, 200 and 210 You can keep posting all the links I didn't use to check Vargas' contract or you can cut me 1 ounce of slack that the link I did use didn't list it and it's not high treason to not remember an insignificant 2m option on a contract signed 10 months ago.

Like I said, moving on. I was just confused why you refused to believe every other source. I'm not looking to fight over such a stupid topic (not calling you stupid).

In comment 14217026 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

point is the Pirates would have to pay him 10 million. That's what they would be taking on. Which changes the talent cost significantly vs. someone like Nova where the savings was significant. For a team like Pittsburgh they aren't taking back significant salary to dump an asset without a team giving up actual talent.

I know that - which is why my original post said "to offset some money" not "all of his money". Obviously the Pirates aren't making a revenue neutral trade of a good player for a bad player. But I agree, let's move on.

with a 3.81 era after the all star break, keep him for another year and use Lugo in the pen. It's a great advantage to have a player who can be a respectable starter in your pen when the inevitable injury to someone in the rotation happens. If we trade Vargas and move Lugo into the rotation, we'll have to add another reliever who, after we eat part of Vargas's contract will cost as much or more.

source but the drummer for the band Coheed and Cambria is a massive, massive Mets fan and knows MLB players (presumably fans of his band) and he said one of Pollock's teammates essentially said the guy is unable to stay healthy and knowing the guy (Josh Eppard) is a Mets fan he'd hope his Mets didn't sign him. No idea if there is more to it (aka the players didn't like each other) but I guess it's something.

makes BBI great, right there.

That. And Larry.

say the Mets have discussed Nick Hundley. Yuck. He's 35 and was last a league average regular.. in 2014.

In comment 14217041 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 14217038 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 14217022 DanMetroMan said: Quote: $16m / 2 Years (2018 - 2019) + 1 Option Years (Edit) signed by New York Mets on 2/16/2018 (Free Agent) 2018: $6M, 2019: $8M 2020 Unknown Option: $8M ($2M buyout) Incentives: $250,000 each for 160 innings, 170, 180, 190, 200 and 210 You can keep posting all the links I didn't use to check Vargas' contract or you can cut me 1 ounce of slack that the link I did use didn't list it and it's not high treason to not remember an insignificant 2m option on a contract signed 10 months ago. Like I said, moving on. I was just confused why you refused to believe every other source. I'm not looking to fight over such a stupid topic (not calling you stupid).

When you posted the other sources I realized the one I used was wrong. I don't multi-source every post I make and spotrac is usually the most detailed with contracts.

would use Cots. MLB GM's are on record as admitting they use it so I have to believe it's accurate.

In comment 14217063 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

would use Cots. MLB GM's are on record as admitting they use it so I have to believe it's accurate.

their site layout sucks though. honestly if this is more than 1 minor glitch on spotrac it's gonna be a big hit for me bc their site is so easy to navigate and has every team/sport/historical.

would not be happy but I'm not sure a ton separates Nido and Maldonado. If they used the C money on Pollock it wouldn't be the worst allocation of funds. I still prefer Grandal over all other options. Grandal, Justin Wilson, maybe Jon Jay with Lagares. OF options are really poor so if it's not Pollock I don't know where they turn. Adam Jones is completely finished.

In comment 14217053 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

source but the drummer for the band Coheed and Cambria is a massive, massive Mets fan and knows MLB players (presumably fans of his band) and he said one of Pollock's teammates essentially said the guy is unable to stay healthy and knowing the guy (Josh Eppard) is a Mets fan he'd hope his Mets didn't sign him. No idea if there is more to it (aka the players didn't like each other) but I guess it's something.

Not the first time someone has questioned his ability/desire to play through an injury

not going to get on DiComo because I assume the Mets give him this talking point but the stat he cites is like something the Mets would have put on the scoreboard when Reyes was hitting .120

"Anthony DiComo
‏
Verified account

@AnthonyDiComo
14h14 hours ago
More
Count Adam Jones among the right-handed outfielders the Mets have checked in on. Jones, a five-time All-Star, attended the Winter Meetings, but the Mets didn't talk to him in person. Now 33 years old, Jones has been durable, averaging 645 PAs over the past nine seasons."

Durable but bad is still bad.

The Mariners asked about Lagares during the Cano talks (even with the Smith addition). That may have been simply to avoid taking Bruce or Swarzak but how about Lagares for LeBlanc? Would save the Mets 6.25 million. LeBlanc or Vargas to the BP would I guess at least give them back end options/innings soakers and you could have some more money to play with.

Lagares for LeBlanc might allow you to sign both Pollock and a C if done correctly.

Alex Claudio/Texas is the most obvious answer but they aren't taking Lagares at 9 million just to give up Claudio.... if Kay/Lagares gave you room to operate and add Grandal/Pollock I would certainly do that as well.

In comment 14217087 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

The Mariners asked about Lagares during the Cano talks (even with the Smith addition). That may have been simply to avoid taking Bruce or Swarzak but how about Lagares for LeBlanc? Would save the Mets 6.25 million. LeBlanc or Vargas to the BP would I guess at least give them back end options/innings soakers and you could have some more money to play with. Lagares for LeBlanc might allow you to sign both Pollock and a C if done correctly.

I don't think we can afford to trade Lagares. Nimmo/Conforto/Pollock aren't exactly the most durable players (albeit, Lagares is the latest durable of the 4!) so we need to play the numbers a bit and have some depth there.

would be nice to pop a delino deshields or even a gilmartin type.

Lagares and Kay for Claudio (savings of about 7.5 million), sign Grandal and Pollock.. BOOM #Mets

have a ton of depth everywhere. I'm just concerned given how thin the organization is at OF thanks to Alderson. If you we added Grandal/Pollock, I guess I'd be crazy to not want that just to keep Lagares.

We'd still need another OF in that scenario though. Maybe we get one through the rule 5 today?

In comment 14217107 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

would be nice to pop a delino deshields or even a gilmartin type.

.
Link - ( New Window )

I'd probably take a shot on Beras. See if Mickey/Eiland could get him MLB passable. Very raw but BA had him touching triple digits #Mets

In comment 14217111 Metnut said:

Quote:

have a ton of depth everywhere. I'm just concerned given how thin the organization is at OF thanks to Alderson. If you we added Grandal/Pollock, I guess I'd be crazy to not want that just to keep Lagares. We'd still need another OF in that scenario though. Maybe we get one through the rule 5 today?

The OF depth is so bad that Tebow legit is a top 6 OF right now.

Conforto
Lagares
Dom Smith
Kaczmarski

Tebow might be next. I mean McNeil is probably who they would go to but still...

Lagares and Kay for Claudio is about 7.5 million in savings. You'd like to believe that would be significant enough to add both a Grandal and Pollock. (I'm putting Frazier at 3b over McNeil only because that's what they seem to be doing not preference)

1B Alonso
2B Cano
SS Rosario
3B Frazier
LF Nimmo
CF Pollock
RF Conforto
C Grandal

Degrom, Thor, Wheeler, Matz, Vargas

BP
Diaz
Familia
Lugo
Claudio
Zamora
Smith

so both of them would be a big financial risk knowing the wilpons won't outspend mistakes. Once you give up the 2nd rounder you may as well get both I suppose, but I think I'd settle on whichever 1 of them the scouts are most confident in and then wait out the market for more of a value move at the other spot.

Mike Puma
‏@NYPost_Mets
1m1 minute ago
The Mets have not ruled out Andrew Miller at this point, but concerns over his health/workload coupled with his price tag - and the team has other areas in need of improvement - could make it difficult.

Familia takes away a lot of the urgency in the BP. I'd have no issue waiting until january and then bringing a few 1 year vets to ST and hoping you can find a Ryan Madson (2017 version). I know he looked shot last year but I wouldn't hate a ST invite for Blevins in a very limited role.

for a couple of veteran AAAA OFers as backups

In comment 14217150 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

Mike Puma ‏@NYPost_Mets 1m1 minute ago The Mets have not ruled out Andrew Miller at this point, but concerns over his health/workload coupled with his price tag - and the team has other areas in need of improvement - could make it difficult. Familia takes away a lot of the urgency in the BP. I'd have no issue waiting until january and then bringing a few 1 year vets to ST and hoping you can find a Ryan Madson (2017 version). I know he looked shot last year but I wouldn't hate a ST invite for Blevins in a very limited role.

I just wish the Mets or writers would just be honest once- its all about the price tag. Like the line they had about being concerend with Machado's personality which is why they aren't pursuing him. Its simply about money- always is with the Mets.

I understand being concerned in salary cap sports but this is simply about cash. It sucks that a NYC franchise won't outspend even minor FA mistakes.

In comment 14217116 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

I'd probably take a shot on Beras. See if Mickey/Eiland could get him MLB passable. Very raw but BA had him touching triple digits #Mets

Speaking of Rule 5 Draft, what about gambling on Rob Kaminsky and using him as a LOOGY?

In comment 14217167 Mike in NY said:

Quote:

In comment 14217116 DanMetroMan said: Quote: I'd probably take a shot on Beras. See if Mickey/Eiland could get him MLB passable. Very raw but BA had him touching triple digits #Mets Speaking of Rule 5 Draft, what about gambling on Rob Kaminsky and using him as a LOOGY?

he stood out to me as an option just bc Callaway likely knows him from Cleveland but his stats are pretty meh. he almost walked more guys than he k'd at AA last year though so hard to dream on that.

Is Marwin Gonzalez an option? Something about Pollock really worries me for the Mets. What is he projected to get?

Is there any scenario where the Mets are in on Harper or Machado? If their markets completely bottom out?

?!?????????

In comment 14217339 TyreeHelmet said:

Quote:

Is Marwin Gonzalez an option? Something about Pollock really worries me for the Mets. What is he projected to get? Is there any scenario where the Mets are in on Harper or Machado? If their markets completely bottom out?

There is no chance that their markets bottom out. The Dodgers and Phillies have serious interest in Harper as do other teams. The Yankees are more than likely going to sign Machado.

likely OUT on Miller.

Was #13 in Miami's system prior to having a bad year in AAA.

Quote:

If you enjoyed the Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo era of Marlins baseball (I did), then you�re probably going to enjoy watching Lee, who shares many stylistc similarities with Florida�s throwback slash-and-dash duo. Lee limits the scope of his offensive approach to suit his skills. He�s a 70 runner with ugly, but effective, bat control and enough strength in his hands and wrists to hit the occasional rope into the gap. Mostly he peppers the opposite field with low-lying contact and reaches via bunt and infield grounders because of his speed. This ability combined with above-average plate discipline has enabled Lee to reach base at a .346 career mark, and his speed enables him to play center field. He looks like a low-end regular or luxury fourth outfielder.

For one simple reason. Cespedes IS returning at some point. I�d love to just assume he doesn�t exist but the surgeries are done now and we heard they were successful. The dude is making 30 million AAV. He is going to start when he returns if he�s even remotely able. So signing M Gonzalez gives them flexibility to move him around to a bunch of spots similar to McNeil. Signing Pollock likely creates a logjam at some point and I think I�d rather allocate my resources better on a limited amount to spend.

Mets out on Miller as I suspected. Like I said, I feel bad for Mets fans who actually believe this team will spend like a normal NY team. If anything Familia is a Met likely because Miller was too pricey #Mets

is trash. Small guy, doesn't throw hard. Best case is a middle reliever and even then I don't see it.

if they were both coming off 100% healthy years I'd take Miller but they aren't.

are out on the big name RP's lol. They always talk a good game.

last year and is younger. Sounds like Brody wants to add more to the pen, just not more elite SU/CL types because they have other needs, mainly catcher.

sign Maldonado. He's worse than our already bad in-house catchers and would be a waste of limited payroll resources. It's a lame Sandy type of signing.

I don't really love M Gonzales either. He's OK depth but not really good at anything. Do we really need more backup IF depth? If they pay a nickle to give him credit for his fluke 2017, it would be a mistake.

Would rather actually sign a "good" player than waste the rest of our budget on filler talent like Maldonado and Gonzales.

Britton, Miller, Robertson etc aren't happening.

is garbage. No guarantee he's even better than Nido given the price differential.

In comment 14217383 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

last year and is younger. Sounds like Brody wants to add more to the pen, just not more elite SU/CL types because they have other needs, mainly catcher.

I'm fine with that (and agree about Familia), but please either add a real catcher, not shitty Maldonado, or get an impact talent elsewhere.

Unless they went huge on Harper or something. Maldonado by himself? Gross.

.224/.286/.361

.231/.272/.351


One is Nido, one is Maldonado...

Ken Rosenthal
‏
Verified account

@Ken_Rosenthal
13m13 minutes ago
#Mets have discussed three-team trades with multiple teams trying to get Realmuto, at this point to no avail. Framework of one proposal, per sources: Realmuto-plus to #Mets, Syndergaard to #Padres, young players to #Marlins. Not close. Just one of many ideas kicked around.

In comment 14217476 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Ken Rosenthal ‏ Verified account @Ken_Rosenthal 13m13 minutes ago #Mets have discussed three-team trades with multiple teams trying to get Realmuto, at this point to no avail. Framework of one proposal, per sources: Realmuto-plus to #Mets, Syndergaard to #Padres, young players to #Marlins. Not close. Just one of many ideas kicked around.

Ugh, can they just give up on JT already

In comment 14217366 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Mets out on Miller as I suspected. Like I said, I feel bad for Mets fans who actually believe this team will spend like a normal NY team. If anything Familia is a Met likely because Miller was too pricey #Mets

Very frustrating as a fan. I could even understand being out on Machado/ Harper if the rational was to beef up their bullpen/ catcher and defense to build around the strong pitching. But they won't even do that.

Shouldn't these be the years they spend with Degrom and Thor on the cheap? They spent 90 million on bad players last year...If they come away with resigning Familia and a shitty catcher, that is an awful FA season.

is wrong with the Mets?

Tim Healey

In Mets' continued pursuit of J.T. Realmuto, talks revolve around Michael Conforto/Brandon Nimmo over Amed Rosario, source says. One of those guys - not multiple - would the centerpiece.

Among the NYM prospects MIA has been keen on: Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos.

In comment 14217533 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

is wrong with the Mets? Tim Healey In Mets' continued pursuit of J.T. Realmuto, talks revolve around Michael Conforto/Brandon Nimmo over Amed Rosario, source says. One of those guys - not multiple - would the centerpiece. Among the NYM prospects MIA has been keen on: Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos.

Disgusted.

In comment 14217533 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

is wrong with the Mets? Tim Healey In Mets' continued pursuit of J.T. Realmuto, talks revolve around Michael Conforto/Brandon Nimmo over Amed Rosario, source says. One of those guys - not multiple - would the centerpiece. Among the NYM prospects MIA has been keen on: Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos.

Why would we add anyone when we're trading the better player with more years of control?

In comment 14217533 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

is wrong with the Mets? Tim Healey In Mets' continued pursuit of J.T. Realmuto, talks revolve around Michael Conforto/Brandon Nimmo over Amed Rosario, source says. One of those guys - not multiple - would the centerpiece. Among the NYM prospects MIA has been keen on: Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos.

Ouch that would hurt. Basically any rumored Realmuto trade looks like it will be bad for the Mets.

In comment 14217533 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

is wrong with the Mets? Tim Healey In Mets' continued pursuit of J.T. Realmuto, talks revolve around Michael Conforto/Brandon Nimmo over Amed Rosario, source says. One of those guys - not multiple - would the centerpiece. Among the NYM prospects MIA has been keen on: Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos.

Makes you wonder how theonlyRealmuto rumors you hear about areMet related.
And ever single rumor gradually gets fans angrier and angrier. Hmmmm

Does that mean the Marlins are leaking info or the Mets?

In comment 14217550 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Does that mean the Marlins are leaking info or the Mets?

Generally if the rumors are heavily one sided and make one team look bad, you can probably assume it's a leak.

I know its still early but anyone else getting a bad feeling about BVW the GM? All I see thus far is an inexperienced agent turned GM who wants to get target his former clients.

I was hoping he would get the Wilpons to spend and navigate free agency deftly. So far there is zero evidence of that. But atleast Fred and Jeff have a polished speaker they can throw in front of a mic.

love to believe that but EVERY one of the national writers AND beat writers have the same info. They wouldn't all be speaking to the same source.

Clint Frazier is just sitting there. They have some young, cost controlled pitching they can give back as well.

There is some risk with both Wheeler and Frazier but I think it's a great fit as both also have tremendous upside. Mets can then build their rotation around paying Jake and Thor and their right handed middle of the lineup bat. Yanks get a year to make sure Wheeler can solidify himself as a top end starter before having to pay him.

I'm only one Mets fan but I don't have near the attachment to Wheeler as I do Noah. I don't think it could be the PR disaster Thor would be.

for Realmuto. While I'm sure Brodie also likes the player, don't you think it is possible that he is engaging in these ridiculous trade negotiations to appease his boss.

Just like in the business world, sometimes you need to manage upwards in order to get the support needed to do your job.

Forget Nimmo or Conforto, the appropriate price for Realmuto would be 2 of the prospects the Marlins "like". Gimenez, Vientos, Mauricio. Not some of them AND Conforto or Nimmo. Absurd. #Mets

Should be diagnosed as Obsessive Compulsive. I know because I am one.

In comment 14217566 TyreeHelmet said:

Quote:

I know its still early but anyone else getting a bad feeling about BVW the GM? All I see thus far is an inexperienced agent turned GM who wants to get target his former clients. I was hoping he would get the Wilpons to spend and navigate free agency deftly. So far there is zero evidence of that. But atleast Fred and Jeff have a polished speaker they can throw in front of a mic.

me me me ! We are getting an all-Brody Team

Jeurys could be best set up man in baseball. Ability to get grounders makes him ideal to bring in with men on base. Also setup fits his personality.

Deal also shows BVW plays it close to the vest. Media was completely in the dark.

That tells me Thor is going nowhere.

I also doubt they have any interest in Grandal. Not really much of an upgrade. Why would they offer TDA arbitration and then sign a guy who is not much better? I think it will be Realmuto or Mets just go with what they got. Ramos a possibility but only for right price

In comment 14217752 Vanzetti said:

Quote:

Jeurys could be best set up man in baseball. Ability to get grounders makes him ideal to bring in with men on base. Also setup fits his personality. Deal also shows BVW plays it close to the vest. Media was completely in the dark. That tells me Thor is going nowhere. I also doubt they have any interest in Grandal. Not really much of an upgrade. Why would they offer TDA arbitration and then sign a guy who is not much better? I think it will be Realmuto or Mets just go with what they got. Ramos a possibility but only for right price

Um. Grandal is one of the best catchers in baseball both offensively and defensively

2018 Grandal 3.6 fWAR... TDA's entire career 4.3

TDA career wRC+ 96
Grandal career 115

Is this parody? Otherwise wow.

4 seasons best catchers in baseball by fWAR

1) Posey
2) Realmuto
3) Grandal

the next best C isn't within 2 wins of Grandal

wRC+
1) Sanchez
2) Posey
3) Grandal

wOBA
1) Sanchez
2) Posey
3) Contreras
4) Chiniros
5) Grandal

HR
1)Perez
2) Grandal

DRS
1) Grandal
2) Molina

Grandal sucks and will likely decline over a four year deal

If all you had to do was add up fWAR or OPS+, any 15 year old with decent math skills could be a GM

I will go on record saying that Grandal will be a terrible signing if he gets four years at prices being projected. Will you put your money where your mouth is and say the opposite? Or just quote a bunch ofnmbrrs anybody can look up on fangraphs?

1) Mathis
2) Grandal

2017
1) Flowers
2) Grandal

In comment 14217773 Vanzetti said:

Quote:

Grandal sucks and will likely decline over a four year deal If all you had to do was add up fWAR or OPS+, any 15 year old with decent math skills could be a GM I will go on record saying that Grandal will be a terrible signing if he gets four years at prices being projected. Will you put your money where your mouth is and say the opposite? Or just quote a bunch ofnmbrrs anybody can look up on fangraphs?

I'll make it very simple for you. The Mets were on the fence tendering TDA a contract for 1 year 3 million. Grandal will get a deal at very minimum.. 10 times that. At minimum.. why?

over 4 year deal.. so we are deviating from our argument now? Grandal will be an above average regular and top 3-4 at his position in 2019 barring injury, TDA will not. You said they were close. This is not based in reality.

but yes sure. Grandal will be at MINIMUM twice as valuable d'Arnaud over the life of his contract barring career altering injury. Quote me.

There is little difference between Grandal and Realmuto?

You are a smart dude who knows a ton about baseball, but you make dumb statements like all of us do. Your love of Grandal is misplaced and all it tells me is you have never watched him on a regular basis

put down the computer and take a walk.

makes sense to just spend money on a competent catcher. But this is the Mets we are talking about, creating holes elsewhere to get a slightly better player.

In comment 14217786 Vanzetti said:

Quote:

There is little difference between Grandal and Realmuto? You are a smart dude who knows a ton about baseball, but you make dumb statements like all of us do. Your love of Grandal is misplaced and all it tells me is you have never watched him on a regular basis

Vanzetti... are you suggesting MLB teams don't either? Because he's going to get at minimum 13 million per season on a multi-year deal.. why? If the Mets non-tendered TDA he wouldn't get ANYWHERE near that. Why? Teams are dumb? Grandal must be a total moron. He turned down 18 million from the Dodgers to become a FA. If the Mets offered anywhere near that for TDA people would be uproariously laughing at the Mets.

In comment 14217786 Vanzetti said:

Quote:

There is little difference between Grandal and Realmuto? You are a smart dude who knows a ton about baseball, but you make dumb statements like all of us do. Your love of Grandal is misplaced and all it tells me is you have never watched him on a regular basis

And if you're going to claim I said something at least be factual. I said STEAMER projects the 2 of them to be roughly equal in 2019. Steamer also doesn't love Nimmo, I don't agree with that.

projects Grandal 3.6 fWAR, Realmuto 3.7. Take issue with them.
Link - ( New Window )

balls are some weird new obsession for fans. Guess which 2 teams led baseball in passed balls... Yankees and Red Sox.

Grandal .773 OPS
Realmuto .785

Brodie must not watch games either?


NYPOST 12/1

Yasmani Grandal�s name was discussed by Mets officials earlier in the offseason then largely buried to concentrate on other pursuits. But with two pieces close to falling into place, the team could be preparing to circle back toward the veteran catcher.

12/11

Free agent Yasmani Grandal has emerged as a �strong possibility� for the Mets, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.

they both cost a 2nd round pick, they are both good 2 way players at their position but not great, they will cost similar amounts of money, and they both have 1 similar relatively big risk factor (durability since Pollock has been injury prone and Grandal is a catcher > 30).

We can only likely afford 1. Who do you choose?

I think I'd go Grandal because he is safer, and assuming their internal metrics agree he is an elite framer which could help the entire pitching staff enormously. On the flip side there are many more available options at C if you don't get him like Cervelli, Martin, Ramos, etc. Pollock is riskier but it's hard to find another option in CF. Very tricky decision.

In comment 14217843 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

they both cost a 2nd round pick, they are both good 2 way players at their position but not great, they will cost similar amounts of money, and they both have 1 similar relatively big risk factor (durability since Pollock has been injury prone and Grandal is a catcher > 30). We can only likely afford 1. Who do you choose? I think I'd go Grandal because he is safer, and assuming their internal metrics agree he is an elite framer which could help the entire pitching staff enormously. On the flip side there are many more available options at C if you don't get him like Cervelli, Martin, Ramos, etc. Pollock is riskier but it's hard to find another option in CF. Very tricky decision.

For what it's worth, Seidler (who has access to the BP database) also confirms on their end Grandal is also elite defensively overall (while acknowledging they have Realmuto better than the FG/Statcorner framing numbers)

In comment 14217802 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

balls are some weird new obsession for fans. Guess which 2 teams led baseball in passed balls... Yankees and Red Sox.

Oh man, you don't know how unbearable people are in the Yankee threads over passed balls. It's the only thing Sanchez doesn't do at least pretty well behind the plate, so of course it's the only thing his detractors ever talk about.

In comment 14217848 Greg from LI said:

Quote:

In comment 14217802 DanMetroMan said: Quote: balls are some weird new obsession for fans. Guess which 2 teams led baseball in passed balls... Yankees and Red Sox. Oh man, you don't know how unbearable people are in the Yankee threads over passed balls. It's the only thing Sanchez doesn't do at least pretty well behind the plate, so of course it's the only thing his detractors ever talk about.

Hardball times has an insanely long feature piece on passed balls which is an excellent read (and not deep stat heavy). It's like some weird new thing to latch onto all of a sudden.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 14217846 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 14217843 Eric on Li said: Quote: they both cost a 2nd round pick, they are both good 2 way players at their position but not great, they will cost similar amounts of money, and they both have 1 similar relatively big risk factor (durability since Pollock has been injury prone and Grandal is a catcher > 30). We can only likely afford 1. Who do you choose? I think I'd go Grandal because he is safer, and assuming their internal metrics agree he is an elite framer which could help the entire pitching staff enormously. On the flip side there are many more available options at C if you don't get him like Cervelli, Martin, Ramos, etc. Pollock is riskier but it's hard to find another option in CF. Very tricky decision. For what it's worth, Seidler (who has access to the BP database) also confirms on their end Grandal is also elite defensively overall (while acknowledging they have Realmuto better than the FG/Statcorner framing numbers)

You didn't choose.

Is a passed ball than an ordinary stolen base?
Keep in mind how little a stolen base is valued in today�s game.

take Grandal over Pollock. More durable, more of a sure thing. I also think it's POSSIBLE Lagares and a platoon partner are okay in CF. I do not feel the same way about Plawecki and TDA (sorry Shecky).

In comment 14217882 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

take Grandal over Pollock. More durable, more of a sure thing. I also think it's POSSIBLE Lagares and a platoon partner are okay in CF. I do not feel the same way about Plawecki and TDA (sorry Shecky).

Lol. I understand. I don�t care much for TDA either...

I like Cervelli almost as much as Grandal. I like his bat better, his contract is better, defensively he's not as good but he's rated well in terms of framing in the past, and based on all the stories about his makeup I think he may be more of a gamer than Grandal. But obviously depends on trade cost.

In comment 14217383 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

last year and is younger. Sounds like Brody wants to add more to the pen, just not more elite SU/CL types because they have other needs, mainly catcher.

No he wasn�t Robertson was basically unhittable for the Yankees in August and September Familia was dreadful for over a month before the Mets dealt him

Maybe on a one season deal. But he wasn�t exactly impressive in the setup role with the A�s. Don�t like it. I would have had more confidence in Robertson as a setup guy. We�ll see

In comment 14217882 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

take Grandal over Pollock. More durable, more of a sure thing. I also think it's POSSIBLE Lagares and a platoon partner are okay in CF. I do not feel the same way about Plawecki and TDA (sorry Shecky).

I�d be willing to give Pollack a big 1y contract like Donaldson got. I don�t see this big market for him. A contract like McCutch is too much of a commitment. You also have to give up a draft pick

asset than Plawecki and it will be easier to pick up another decent center fielder than it will be to pick up a decent catcher.

among free agents only 2 placed ahead of him - Ottavino and Soria. He was tied with Betances and 1 tenth of a point behind Chapman. It was in total the 2nd most valuable season of his career and while his ERA was slightly higher than his career average at 3.1, his FIP was actually lower than his career average at 2.6 (both numbers lower than Robertson). His velocity and pitch mix was in line with the rest of his career according to fangraphs.

He also had the highest K rate of his career and the 10th lowest HR rate of any reliever in baseball.

That is not to crap on Robertson - he had a very similar season and also has experience pitching well in NY. There is 1 big difference though - and that is that he's 5 years older than Familia.

The revisionism about Familia's career here is really crazy to me sometimes. The guy was the MVP of the team from 2015-2016 converting 94 saves and blowing just 10 over that 2 year period pitching more than just about any closer in baseball. He was the difference against the Dodgers. He gave up the homer to Gordon on the infamous quick pitch and he gave up the homer to Gillespie - but every closer gets hit once in a while. Chapman almost blew the WS for the Cubs.

In comment 14218328 Ira said:

Quote:

asset than Plawecki and it will be easier to pick up another decent center fielder than it will be to pick up a decent catcher.

This. Both comforto and nimmo can play CF if needed

For years, the BP sucked balls and everyone knew about it. And everyone bitched about. In the past few weeks we�ve acquired a closer who had a historic season. And to set him up, (re) acquired a top 10-15 closer.

A veteran presence has been added to the middle of the lineup. A lineup that sucked balls and everyone knew about it. And everyone bitched about as well. This vetoresence happens to be one of the greatest 2B ever,coming off a great half season.

Everyone bitches the team never spends. The spent. People bitch about the spending.

Everyone hated Bruce and Swarz, mostly due to their contracts. They dumped the contracts. Everyone bitched they were cheap and dumping contracts.

Everyone bitches about the catcher position. So they are chasing literally the two best catchers in the game. Yet everyone is bitching.

Rant over

all due respect but they really haven't spent. Their payroll right now is BELOW 2018 (when they were 15th in baseball in spending). I know you are pro-team and have ties to the team and some of your rant is valid but no, they have not spent the way normal big market teams do. What they do going forward? No clue. But sorry they don't get praise for spending.

needs to hang em up.

Matt Ehalt
‏
So if we assume Mets payroll will be similar to last year (ownership will not answer this question) then Mets have roughly $25 million left to add another reliever, a catcher/outfielder &and perhaps a utility infielder.

IMO this is part of why Van Wagenen is big on trades

Matt Ehalt
‏
Should also be noted Jeff Wilpon has said in past they don't just assume insurance money is off the books/it's not all reinvested into team.

In comment 14218363 Shecky said:

Quote:

For years, the BP sucked balls and everyone knew about it. And everyone bitched about. In the past few weeks we�ve acquired a closer who had a historic season. And to set him up, (re) acquired a top 10-15 closer. A veteran presence has been added to the middle of the lineup. A lineup that sucked balls and everyone knew about it. And everyone bitched about as well. This vetoresence happens to be one of the greatest 2B ever,coming off a great half season. Everyone bitches the team never spends. The spent. People bitch about the spending. Everyone hated Bruce and Swarz, mostly due to their contracts. They dumped the contracts. Everyone bitched they were cheap and dumping contracts. Everyone bitches about the catcher position. So they are chasing literally the two best catchers in the game. Yet everyone is bitching. Rant over

I like every addition brodie has made on the field - as Dan said though the issue is that they hamstring themselves by restricting the budget to lower levels than mid markets like Seattle and St Louis. A top 10 budget isn't a lot to ask of a major market NY team that's "going for it". Until the ownerships disingenuous commitment to winning changes the fanbase is going to skew negative.

Almost everything negative from this franchise flows from the attitude at the very top - "if fans show up we'll start spending more". They aim to run this like a business and simultaneously treat their customers like crap. Not exactly a historically successful business model.

In comment 14218427 KevinBBWC said:

Quote:

Matt Ehalt ‏ So if we assume Mets payroll will be similar to last year (ownership will not answer this question) then Mets have roughly $25 million left to add another reliever, a catcher/outfielder &and perhaps a utility infielder. IMO this is part of why Van Wagenen is big on trades Matt Ehalt ‏ Should also be noted Jeff Wilpon has said in past they don't just assume insurance money is off the books/it's not all reinvested into team.

I think the $25m sounds about right based on how they've behaved. That's why they view Realmuto as a 2 for 1 since he's cheap + good. I'd hate to do it, but the more I've thought about it there is some logic to building a trade around Nimmo - who while a comparable player with more control, is easier to replace. Could even be McNeil until a spot opens up in the IF for him.

I'd personally prefer to not make anymore significantly risky deals and just add $10m with Cervelli and then value hunt for the final $15m. Maybe you get a veteran OF'er on a 1 year deal. Maybe you trade Dom Smith for someone else's disappointing OF or P. Maybe you sign a P like Gio or Brach to a low risk 1 or 2 year deal.

Save the remaining prospects and budget flexibility for in-season deals once we see how the team looks.

For a SETUP MAN. It�s still being said they didn�t spend money.., net net, they added $90mm to two players. But didn�t spend any money. Added three players that can be considered in the top 10% at their position this offseason. It�s never good enough...

Flame away

In comment 14218423 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

needs to hang em up.

Used to love Cerrone; always felt like he spoke on behalf of the fans. Recently, however, I feel like he's nothing more than a mouthpiece for ownership. I'm not sure how much editorial influence the Mets have over MetsBlog, but it is clear that the change of ownership has changed the tone from what once was an independent fan site.

Which I think is everyone�s point. Any increase from cano is down the road. I would also throw out that if they ate more money in that trade they probably wouldn�t have had to give up kelenic, which further adds to perception of frugality.

Adding back familia is essentially replacing costs we were paying Ramos, swarzak, or any of the other pieces whose contracts are up.

In comment 14218518 Shecky said:

Quote:

For a SETUP MAN. It�s still being said they didn�t spend money.., net net, they added $90mm to two players. But didn�t spend any money. Added three players that can be considered in the top 10% at their position this offseason. It�s never good enough... Flame away

That's not exactly a huge increase over what they paid previous setup men (Swarzak and Reed were both in the $7-8m range). And to afford Familia at $10m they had to leverage Kelenic - whom I believe you were very high on if memory serves - to get a cost controlled closer pre-arb closer. So while they deserve credit for upgrading the back end of the bullpen on the field, they are actually spending less $ and to do so they had to give up Kelenic.

In comment 14218533 bhill410 said:

Quote:

Which I think is everyone�s point. Any increase from cano is down the road. I would also throw out that if they ate more money in that trade they probably wouldn�t have had to give up kelenic, which further adds to perception of frugality. Adding back familia is essentially replacing costs we were paying Ramos, swarzak, or any of the other pieces whose contracts are up.

Good point - totally forgot about Ramos. Total spending on the BP is definitely down a lot this year vs. last year counting him.

In comment 14218524 csb said:

Quote:

In comment 14218423 DanMetroMan said: Quote: needs to hang em up. Used to love Cerrone; always felt like he spoke on behalf of the fans. Recently, however, I feel like he's nothing more than a mouthpiece for ownership. I'm not sure how much editorial influence the Mets have over MetsBlog, but it is clear that the change of ownership has changed the tone from what once was an independent fan site.

If we say that he is the mouthpiece for the Mets, is that such a bad thing? We now have an insight into what management is thinking. As long as we no longer think Cerrone is speaking for the fans, let�s take it for what it�s worth.

In comment 14218541 SJGiant said:

Quote:

In comment 14218524 csb said: Quote: In comment 14218423 DanMetroMan said: Quote: needs to hang em up. Used to love Cerrone; always felt like he spoke on behalf of the fans. Recently, however, I feel like he's nothing more than a mouthpiece for ownership. I'm not sure how much editorial influence the Mets have over MetsBlog, but it is clear that the change of ownership has changed the tone from what once was an independent fan site. If we say that he is the mouthpiece for the Mets, is that such a bad thing? We now have an insight into what management is thinking. As long as we no longer think Cerrone is speaking for the fans, let�s take it for what it�s worth.

I don't think it is all negative - to your point it might give you a look inside the org. On the negative side, they are always trying to 'spin' the fanbase and the shitty results.

Does anyone really think the team had a CHOICE in eating more money and keeping Kelenic???

I�ve always been the guy who hates people that point out payroll. Give me a 25 man squad of minimum wage Ocunas and a $15mm
Yaroslavl and I�d be quite happy. So I don�t want to hear payroll. Until they have a choice to get a guy and balk due to $$. When that�s the on,y factor, I agree you can complain.

But they added a young dominant closer. A top 10 closer to set him up. And a hal, of fame 2B to bat in the middle of the lineup so far.
Lost Ramos, Swarz, and Bruce. Oh, and Reyes, can�t forget him...
convinced if they signed Harper and Machado today we�d see nothing but bitching about the two draft picks and 1mm in slot we gave up lol

In comment 14218550 Shecky said:

Quote:

Does anyone really think the team had a CHOICE in eating more money and keeping Kelenic??? I�ve always been the guy who hates people that point out payroll. Give me a 25 man squad of minimum wage Ocunas and a $15mm Yaroslavl and I�d be quite happy. So I don�t want to hear payroll. Until they have a choice to get a guy and balk due to $$. When that�s the on,y factor, I agree you can complain. But they added a young dominant closer. A top 10 closer to set him up. And a hal, of fame 2B to bat in the middle of the lineup so far. Lost Ramos, Swarz, and Bruce. Oh, and Reyes, can�t forget him... convinced if they signed Harper and Machado today we�d see nothing but bitching about the two draft picks and 1mm in slot we gave up lol

Shecky. I usually don�t reply to these statements. It appears to me you are really getting emotionally involved in this discussion. Life is too short to let people get under your skin. Let people think what they want to think. Only time will tell if this teams meets 2018 payroll or increases payroll.

In comment 14218550 Shecky said:

Quote:

Lost Ramos, Swarz, and Bruce. Oh, and Reyes, can�t forget him...

Are we sure Reyes is actually gone? He seems to just not go away

In comment 14218550 Shecky said:

Quote:

Does anyone really think the team had a CHOICE in eating more money and keeping Kelenic??? I�ve always been the guy who hates people that point out payroll. Give me a 25 man squad of minimum wage Ocunas and a $15mm Yaroslavl and I�d be quite happy. So I don�t want to hear payroll. Until they have a choice to get a guy and balk due to $$. When that�s the on,y factor, I agree you can complain. But they added a young dominant closer. A top 10 closer to set him up. And a hal, of fame 2B to bat in the middle of the lineup so far. Lost Ramos, Swarz, and Bruce. Oh, and Reyes, can�t forget him... convinced if they signed Harper and Machado today we�d see nothing but bitching about the two draft picks and 1mm in slot we gave up lol

I have no idea what was actually on or off the table in return for $ exchanged. We know Cano's contract was so under water he would have been easy to get without Kelenic. I'm sure a line was drawn by Seattle when it came to Diaz. And for me personally, I'd have just taken 2 of the FA (Familia + Roberterson) we were interested in vs. giving up Kelenic. But I don't have a huge issue rolling the dice on Diaz - if he's the next Kimbrel it's worth it and for each of the next few years you could probably flip him for a similar prospect at the deadline if things go real bad.

I just think it's a little silly to not separate BVW's mostly encouraging performance so far from the reality that Wilpons appear to be playing the same games underinvesting in the team on the field they've played for almost a decade now. You mentioned that we collectively bitched about the BP last year - and that turned out to be the biggest culprit during the May/June slide. I applaud them for improving the BP but that doesn't excuse them being so restricted by payroll to make it difficult to address other areas of need. They want to compete for the division with the Nats, Phillies and Braves - they've each been extremely active not just trading, but increasing their investments on the field.

Probably to nobody�s surprise. Just because our payroll isn�t higher than 2018 yet, doesn�t mean we haven�t been making some impactful moves and we haven�t improved the team. We�ve probably done more than any team as of 12/14 and we still seem to be in on a lot more. To Shecky�s point, we also unloaded some bad contracts that EVERYBODY wanted to get rid of. So if the payroll is lower that�s a positive, not a detriment.

Also comparing spends on bullpens when we just acquired one of the best closers in the game, who�s making 500k, is only wee bit disengenuous.

Still more to do though. Definitely not denying that.

How could anyone defend the Mets low payroll/ not spending money? Theres no salary cap and the fans won't see any difference. The only difference is what the Wilpons make....

Mets fan are truly brainwashed.

The Mets ownership charges big city prices for everything inclusive of cable package, yet cries poverty when it comes to big ticket free agents. You can�t, in my opinion, have it both ways and not expect your fan base to react negatively. I�ll pay 100 dollars a ticket but if I am doing that I sure as shit better be receiving a product that reflects that price point, and that has not been the case. Fundamentally it�s an insulting position to take.

If they go out and sign Harper I�ll shut up, but that seems impossible at this juncture. So the reality is we have traded for a 36 year old ped user, an elite closer and signed our former closer. I am hopeful there is more to come but I am not holding my breath.

In comment 14218645 bhill410 said:

Quote:

The Mets ownership charges big city prices for everything inclusive of cable package, yet cries poverty when it comes to big ticket free agents. You can�t, in my opinion, have it both ways and not expect your fan base to react negatively. I�ll pay 100 dollars a ticket but if I am doing that I sure as shit better be receiving a product that reflects that price point, and that has not been the case. Fundamentally it�s an insulting position to take. If they go out and sign Harper I�ll shut up, but that seems impossible at this juncture. So the reality is we have traded for a 36 year old ped user, an elite closer and signed our former closer. I am hopeful there is more to come but I am not holding my breath.

Bingo. Not to mention the enormous tax breaks the Wilpons have received.

In comment 14218645 bhill410 said:

Quote:

The Mets ownership charges big city prices for everything inclusive of cable package, yet cries poverty when it comes to big ticket free agents. You can�t, in my opinion, have it both ways and not expect your fan base to react negatively. I�ll pay 100 dollars a ticket but if I am doing that I sure as shit better be receiving a product that reflects that price point, and that has not been the case. Fundamentally it�s an insulting position to take. If they go out and sign Harper I�ll shut up, but that seems impossible at this juncture. So the reality is we have traded for a 36 year old ped user, an elite closer and signed our former closer. I am hopeful there is more to come but I am not holding my breath.

You bring up a good point, they also own SNY, are they not making any money from the network?

They own 65% of SNY through their Sterling Entertainment business. Regional sports networks are a goldmine business.

Getting people to think they don't make money is a thin form of defense against calling them out for their baseball spending. They are greasy owners, probably being tightfisted with their money to recoup their Madoff losses.

always liked Harvey, personality and all but 15.5 million guaranteed despite the fact he will miss the season and Harvey... not even a whisper. Sad really

that should read Garrett Richards 15.5 guaranteed.

Spot starter role at least initially. Throws up to 99 mph and has worked mostly as a starter. Interesting gamble getting him in with Callahan and Eiland.

for now.

My off-season plan was bullpen, bullpen, bullpen

add a starter (not yet done)
and improve defense where they can (I targeted 1B and that as b/c I assumed it would be Bruce at least part time at 1B, but Cano even at 36 I believe helps improve the D, I bet he'd be a good 1B too).

Losing Bruce and Swarzak are positive subtractions
Adding Cano, Diaz and Familia all positives.

I won't even get into Rule V pickups, because penciling them into any legit role is scary to me, they're like lottery tickets and should not be relied on for anything meaningful.

Like ZG said, still work to do.

And to be clear I'm not happy with the Cano trade, and I wouldn't have made that trade, but it's impossible not to agree the Mets are better today (significantly) than they were at any point last year (on paper)

In comment 14218699 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

always liked Harvey, personality and all but 15.5 million guaranteed despite the fact he will miss the season and Harvey... not even a whisper. Sad really

I was always a fan of Harvey too. Remember this article from 2013?

"It�s getting late, closing in on two in the morning. Harvey leans back, buzzing on the high of being on a team that is, at least for now, winning. Still on a rookie contract, he knows he may soon have to renegotiate with the team for a long-term deal (online sportswriters speculate he could get a seven-year, $70 million deal). The Mets, of course, would be insane to let him go � but the Mets are the Mets, so anything can happen. Still, one thing Harvey knows for certain: �No matter what, New York is now my home,� he says, finishing the night�s last drink. �I could buy a place now, but I�ve gotta wait for that $200 million contract. If I�m going to buy an apartment, it has to be the best apartment in the city.�
Harvey Mens Journal - ( New Window )

In comment 14218730 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Spot starter role at least initially. Throws up to 99 mph and has worked mostly as a starter. Interesting gamble getting him in with Callahan and Eiland.

FG doesn't think he can be a successful MLB SP, more of a filler talent.

" "Ceiling of low-leverage middle reliever if he takes to a �pen role and finds a more consistent off-speed pitch. If he can�t do those things, will be a 4A guy lacking another speed to pair with his high-velo fastball. OFP 40."

here. Fringe secondaries

11. New York Mets
Kyle Dowdy, RHP (from Indians)
Dowdy�s nomadic college career took him from Hawaii to Orange Coast College and finally to Houston, where he redshirted for a year due to injury. He was drafted by Detroit and then included as a throw-in in the Leonys Martin trade to Cleveland. He�s a reliever with a four-pitch mix headlined by an above-average curveball that pairs pretty well with a fastball that lives in the top part of the strike zone but doesn�t really spin. He also has a mid-80s slider and changeup that are fringy and exist to give hitters a little different look. He could stick in the Mets bullpen.

Rookie maximums for at-bats (130), games pitched (30) or innings (50) in the major leagues"

If the 2 leaders are within 5% of each other, or the leader has less than 30% there will be a run-off between the top 2. If a run-off results in a tie the tiebreaker will be vote total in the previous poll, we will continue to "go back" in the polls until there is a clear leader.

*Jeff McNeil is ineligible
*Chris Flexen is ineligible
*Drew Smith is ineligible
*Tyler Bashlor is ineligible

1) Andres Gimenez (SS) AA 19/37 votes- 51%
2) Peter Alonso (1B) AAA 24/36 votes- 67%
3) Ronny Mauricio (SS) Kingsport 12/33-36%
4) Mark Vientos (3b) Kingsport 16/31-52%
5) David Peterson (LHP) A+ 21/31- 68%
6) Franklyn Kilome (RHP) AA 20/33-61%
7) Thomas Szapucki (LHP) A 18/32-56%
8) Shervyen Newton (SS) Kingsport 12/30-40%, Run-off with Anthony Kay 17/33-52%
9) Anthony Kay (LHP) AA 18/26-69%
10) Simeon Woods-Richardson (RHP) Kingsport 12/30-40%
11) Luis Santana (2B) 15/26-58%
12) Will Toffey (3B) 10/29-34%, run-off with Cecchini 15/27-56%
13) Gavin Cecchini (2b) 14/26-46%
14) Francisco Alvarez (C) 9/26-35%
15) Dez Lindsay (OF) 7/18-39%
16) Tony Dibrell (RHP) 9/23-39%
17) Jordan Humphreys (RHP) 7/21-33%, Run-off with Nido 18/24-75%
18) Ross Adolph (OF) 6/25-24%, run-off with Nido 18/25-72%
19) Adam Hill (RHP) 4/26-15%, Run-off with Nido/Crismatt 11/26-58%
20) Junior Santos (RHP) 6/28-21%, Run-off with Nido 11/20-55%
21) Tomas Nido (C) 10/23-43%
22) Luis Guillorme (SS) 9/24-38%
23) Adrian Hernandez 6/26-23%, run-off with Wahl/Cortes 8/15-53%
24) Carlos Cortes (2b) 8/21-38%
25) Steven Villines (RHP) 4/16 25%, Run-off with Thompson/Wahl 9/23-39%
26) David Thompson (3b) 8/23-35%
27) Ali Sanchez (C) 9/17-53%
28) Bobby Wahl (RHP) 11/25-44%
29) Eric Hanhold (RHP) 7/21-33%, run-off 7/20-35%
30) Luis Carpio (IF) 4/18-22%, runoff with Uriarte 9/14-64%
31) Stanley Consuegra (OF) 4/20-20%, runoff with Uriarte/Valdez 6/17-35%, advances due to more votes in previous poll
32) Juan Uriarte (C) 4/19-21%
33) Freddy Valdez (OF) 7/17-41%
34) Daniel Zamora (LHP) 3/17-18%, run-off with Montes De Oca 10/12-83%
35) Jaylen Palmer (??) 3/12-25%, run-off with Montes de Oca/Vilera 9/16-56%
36) Ryley Gilliam (RHP) 5/22-23%, run-off with Manea 8/16-50%, advances due to more votes in previous poll

...based on numbers. That isn't really debatable. As long he isn't closing games in a big spot he'll be fine. We as Mets fans have all experienced the brutal truth that he doesn't have the balls to be a crucible loser.

talk about freudian slip.

signing makes sense for many reasons.

1. obviously it makes the set up role better because Familia is a good pitcher.

2. it provides depth at closer, since he clearly has a ton of experience closing.

3. it helps shorten games because when you have legit options like Gsellman (or a TBD addition), Lugo (if he's not added to rotation) or one of the flame throwers like Rhame, Bashlor, Smith, or other develops like the Mets hope you can only need your starters to go 6 innings.

Shortening the game is a key to major league team success,a and it protects the Mets biggest asset - the rotation.

Plus, people forget how good Familia was because of the WS and the Wild Card, but he was as good a Mets closer as anyone.

Quote:

Brad Badini ⚾️ ‏ @celeBRADtion 4h4 hours ago From August 1st 2015 to July 26th 2016, Jeurys Familia went 52 regular season games without blowing a save. #Mets #PutItInTheBooks

anthony fenech
‏
Verified account

@anthonyfenech
Follow Follow @anthonyfenech
More
The Tigers have talked with the Mets about Castellanos, I�m told. The asking price is high, among other words and phrases, according to multiple teams who have spoken with them.

but that was also 2 to 3 years ago. His effectiveness has clearly dipped since then but I'm still happy to have him back.

But its in the same vein as some people keep saying that we traded for a HOF second basement, one of the greatest to play the game! While conveniently ignoring that he's very expensive, 36 YEARS OLD, and coming off of a PED suspension.

And let's stop with "the bad contracts that EVERYBODY wanted to get rid of." Swarzak was NOT a bad contract and had one year left. Bruce was a bad contract but not in any way a back-breaking deal. More people were annoyed at the spot he was taking rather than the money it costed. It was great to get rid of them but all the Mets did was take on a WORSE contract with Cano. History tells us that we are going to be gravely disappointed with this move. LOL, we traded for the back half of a monster 10 year contract of a 36 year old in a league with no DH. How many times has that worked out for the team? I'll wait for responses...

maybe the worst defensive OFer in baseball, would push Nimmo to CF so the overall OF defense would be bad. Doesn't walk either. Steamer doesn't like him either. 1.8 fWAR for 2019

So... Nelson Cruz is to Nicholas Castellanos as Grandal is to Realmuto... It's only money! If you insist on a horrendous OF then... sign Cruz... don't pay a "high price" for Castellanos #Mets

Steamer: Nelson Cruz 2.5 fWAR, Castellanos 1.8... both are HORRENDOUS OF. One has a "high price" attached to him talent wise, the other... "only money"...#Mets

I think he'll bounce back to form.

and Bruce wasn't just a bad contract, he blocked other players from seeing the field and would play because he was a bad contract so there is a ripple effect.

Which is why I said he was addition by subtraction.

He kept Flores off the field last year, who was probably a better player (when healthy) and was probably the reason we're still not sure if Dom Smith has a future.

Hard to understand how Smith can turn into horseshit so quickly. Leads the PCL in hits and a leader in multiple offensive categories, to bust in less than a year.

Bruce, in part, prevented us from really finding out IMO.

Swarzak may have only been $8M, but the way the Mets operate if that $8M was on the roster it probably meant Familia wasn't (IMO), so again, addition by subtraction.

and there were no noticeable changes in his pitch mix or velocity. Lower FIP than 2015, highest K rate in his career. Also lower HR% than 2015. Obviously way less saves bc he wasn't a closer in the 2nd half, but 3 out of his last 4 seasons have been very similarly excellent - the exception being the injured 2017 season.

I know people remember the bad ones more than the good ones, but in 2015 lets not forget in that entire postseason he only got tagged for 1 earned run - the Gordon quick pitch homer. Prior to that he'd been almost unhittable and after that the entire IF defense around him imploded.

His average FB last year was 96.2 mph, exactly the same as 2016. His slider actually gained velocity and he used it a drop more than any other year.
Familia historical pitch mix - ( New Window )

In comment 14218917 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

I think he'll bounce back to form. and Bruce wasn't just a bad contract, he blocked other players from seeing the field and would play because he was a bad contract so there is a ripple effect. Which is why I said he was addition by subtraction. He kept Flores off the field last year, who was probably a better player (when healthy) and was probably the reason we're still not sure if Dom Smith has a future. Hard to understand how Smith can turn into horseshit so quickly. Leads the PCL in hits and a leader in multiple offensive categories, to bust in less than a year. Bruce, in part, prevented us from really finding out IMO. Swarzak may have only been $8M, but the way the Mets operate if that $8M was on the roster it probably meant Familia wasn't (IMO), so again, addition by subtraction.

Well, these seem like FO issues, not player issues. If a one year, $8 million contract is going to hamstring the Mets...you think the remaining 3 to 4 years of Cano's $120 million contract won't?

As for Bruce blocking players, this is a long standing Mets issue. They have a long history of benching younger, productive players in favor of nonproductive veteran players. LOL, they have already stated that McNeil will not be the starter at 3B to start the season. It's mid-December.

In comment 14218942 PhiPsi125 said:

Quote:

In comment 14218917 pjcas18 said: Quote: I think he'll bounce back to form. and Bruce wasn't just a bad contract, he blocked other players from seeing the field and would play because he was a bad contract so there is a ripple effect. Which is why I said he was addition by subtraction. He kept Flores off the field last year, who was probably a better player (when healthy) and was probably the reason we're still not sure if Dom Smith has a future. Hard to understand how Smith can turn into horseshit so quickly. Leads the PCL in hits and a leader in multiple offensive categories, to bust in less than a year. Bruce, in part, prevented us from really finding out IMO. Swarzak may have only been $8M, but the way the Mets operate if that $8M was on the roster it probably meant Familia wasn't (IMO), so again, addition by subtraction. Well, these seem like FO issues, not player issues. If a one year, $8 million contract is going to hamstring the Mets...you think the remaining 3 to 4 years of Cano's $120 million contract won't? As for Bruce blocking players, this is a long standing Mets issue. They have a long history of benching younger, productive players in favor of nonproductive veteran players. LOL, they have already stated that McNeil will not be the starter at 3B to start the season. It's mid-December.

Agree with all of this, but I have come to accept the way the Mets operate and hope for the best within those confines - hence my thoughts the Mets are better today than they were at season's end.

I think Kelenic is a future all-star and I wouldn't have traded him, but regardless, right now on paper for 2019 the Mets have improved.

I hope they continue to improve throughout the off-season.

just sucks that we always have to grade them on a curve. It is what it is and there's no point rehashing ad nauseam but post-madoff they have not spent anywhere near where they did in the decade prior and what's frustrating is the core of cost controlled young talent is there so if they just brought the payroll up a little bit, halfway between where it is now and where it used to be pre-madoff, they could be a true contender for multiple seasons.

I am surprised more aren't thrilled with this move. I expected him to get 11-13 million per year on a 3-4 year deal. He has proven that he can pitch well in NY and if Diaz goes down the Mets have a great replacement.

this guy will become a top notch choker. Hopefully as a setup man he will flourish

Familia breakdown per Rosenthal:
2019 - $8M ($2M paid as signing bonus)
2020 - $11M ($1M deferred to 2022)
2021 - $11M ($1M deferred to 2022)

$500K bonus for 50 GF in a season

In comment 14219025 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

I am surprised more aren't thrilled with this move. I expected him to get 11-13 million per year on a 3-4 year deal. He has proven that he can pitch well in NY and if Diaz goes down the Mets have a great replacement.

100% agreed

Yasmani Grandal - C - Dodgers
According to Andy Martino of SNY, the Mets continue to show interest in free agent catcher Yasmani Grandal.

The Mets are on the hunt for a major upgrade behind the plate and have talked to the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto, but they continue to explore Grandal as well, who is the best catcher available on the free agent market. The White Sox have also been mentioned as a possible destination for Grandal, though their signing of James McCann on Friday could lessen their interest.
Related: Mets
Source: Andy Martino on TwitterDec 14 - 8:50 PM

Andy Martino
‏Verified account @martinonyc

Mets catching situation moving closer to resolution (not sayin tonight, but they�re working hard on it.)
I keep hearing from different people that they�re very serious about Yasmani Grandal
8:43 PM - 14 Dec 2018

signing? It seems like 90% of the posters like the move.

once there's a resolution with Realmuto.

In comment 14219136 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

once there's a resolution with Realmuto.

I like what I�m reading about Mets talking with Grandal

over the past 10 years or so the Mets org is almost dead last in war from RP and C. So any upgrades there could have a real big impact in terms of improvement.

In comment 14219145 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

over the past 10 years or so the Mets org is almost dead last in war from RP and C. So any upgrades there could have a real big impact in terms of improvement.

What would your very best offer for Cervelli be?

In comment 14219168 Metnut said:

Quote:

In comment 14219145 Eric on Li said: Quote: over the past 10 years or so the Mets org is almost dead last in war from RP and C. So any upgrades there could have a real big impact in terms of improvement. What would your very best offer for Cervelli be?

Hard to say but probably Dom Smith - which still feels like a lot for just 1 year of Cervelli. Maybe they also kick back 1 of their mediocre relievers too?

Just seems like Grandal for $$$ alone is much better than Realmuto + weakening your team by trading a Nimmo, Conforto or Rosario.

Add Grandal and really you are an OF and a LHRP away from a very nice offseason, imo.

Without breaking up the core but Grandal would be a great consolations prize.

In fact..

Cano, Diaz, Familia, Grandal wouldnt be a bad offseason by itself but Im guessing Brody STILL doesnt stop there.

is ridiculous too IMO. It's fine to not like giving up Kelenic... I get that. But not only did Cano put up huge numbers AFTER his PED violation and suspension but he also isn't making a lot of money on this deal from the Mets. An additional 4 mil is coming off every single year of the remaining of his contract via Seattle and due to the Bruce and Swarzak exchange he's basically free the first two years. Give me a break. We end up paying a guy about 65 million over 5 years total and that's supposed to be a problem?? Puhleeze. Even if the Mets stay in the 160 million range annually(Im guessing it goes up a little further) we have nothing on the books and the end should be easily absorbable.

The Mets can never win. When big market teams take on bad contract to get better in the interim, Mets fans act jealous that the cheap ass Wilpons can't do the same. When they do just that, fans bitch about what the contract will look like in 2022.

This isnt paying Stanton for 10 years. This is a hall of fame player still playing at a high level for a measly 12-13 AAV average annually when top players are making 30 million AAV these days including our own actual albatross on the DL in Cespedes.

I could give a rats ass about 2023. Its time to win. The Mets team is better in 2019 because Cano is on it and I want to win while we have this pitching together. I'll cry about 2023 in 2023.

Put me in the camp that would be ok with Castellanos. He may be bad defensively in the corner OF but would it really be any different than Conforto-Nimmo-Bruce last year? With defensive positioning these days I feel like you barely feel it in the OF. Nimmo is passable in CF and I actually am in favor of him ending up there because it means we brought in more offense somewhere else. A no hit defensive CF with Nimmo in a corner doesnt interest me as much.

Catcher should be number one priority and I think it is but after that a RH hitter that can play some OF and even some 3B would suit me fine as the gravy on this train. That can be M. Gonzalez, Puig, Castellanos, etc.

0 Mets are on it including the recently traded Kelenic or Dunn.
Link - ( New Window )

I kind of feel like McNeil can be him if given a full year and has 5 years of control left and isn�t a horrible defensive player. Maybe that is homerish and McNeil never gets to 20 home runs but I am willing to see the experiment out.

clearly have, the first thing you want to build around your pitching is good defense. Castellanos makes no sense for the Mets.

get Realmuto. The marlins have to deal him, and if they don't move relatively soon they will lose their market.It will be Nimmo +. Realmuto's value will never be higher. We than grab AJ pollock, another lefty back, and a lefty in teh pain and call and off-season

In comment 14219185 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

is ridiculous too IMO. It's fine to not like giving up Kelenic... I get that. But not only did Cano put up huge numbers AFTER his PED violation and suspension but he also isn't making a lot of money on this deal from the Mets. An additional 4 mil is coming off every single year of the remaining of his contract via Seattle and due to the Bruce and Swarzak exchange he's basically free the first two years. Give me a break. We end up paying a guy about 65 million over 5 years total and that's supposed to be a problem?? Puhleeze. Even if the Mets stay in the 160 million range annually(Im guessing it goes up a little further) we have nothing on the books and the end should be easily absorbable. The Mets can never win. When big market teams take on bad contract to get better in the interim, Mets fans act jealous that the cheap ass Wilpons can't do the same. When they do just that, fans bitch about what the contract will look like in 2022. This isnt paying Stanton for 10 years. This is a hall of fame player still playing at a high level for a measly 12-13 AAV average annually when top players are making 30 million AAV these days including our own actual albatross on the DL in Cespedes. I could give a rats ass about 2023. Its time to win. The Mets team is better in 2019 because Cano is on it and I want to win while we have this pitching together. I'll cry about 2023 in 2023.

100% agree Z. Mets have zero dollars right now committed beyond 2020 to anyone but Cano. Cano performed well after his return from suspension and there is very little reason to think that he will not be at least an above-average bat for the next year at least (I think his skill set makes it more likely, in fact, that he's an asset through 2021 at least).

But, really, the Mets are not going to be kneecapped by paying Cano on the back end of this deal and there's a damn good shot that he makes up the entire value of his 60mm within the first three years of his deal.

I get disagreeing with the move -- maybe you think Cano fades earlier, maybe you really believe in Kelenic -- but I think that anyone who can't admit that there are likely to be significant short-term gains from Cano is not realistic.

And that's completely omitting Diaz (the real centerpiece of the deal) from the analysis.

The only thing so far that I've disliked about the Mets' offseason has been rumored deals (remember we were going to include McNeil in the Cano deal) or breaking up the MLB team for Realmuto or dealing Thor. But, setting aside rumor and innuendo, what the Mets have actually done has been very good so far -- addressed a lineup deficiency (and hopefully they move Frazier to the bench unless he gets off to a torrid start) and give McNeil 600 AB's -- and really turned the back-end of the BP into a major strength.

So far, really so good. Personally, I think Grandal and Pollock and a LHRP would make this an A++++ offseason.

In comment 14219187 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

0 Mets are on it including the recently traded Kelenic or Dunn. Link - ( New Window )

That�s the 2019 rankings for next years amateur draft. It�s not surprising there�s no Mets on it...

In comment 14219228 BigBlueShock said:

Quote:

In comment 14219187 ZGiants98 said: Quote: 0 Mets are on it including the recently traded Kelenic or Dunn. Link - ( New Window ) That�s the 2019 rankings for next years amateur draft. It�s not surprising there�s no Mets on it...

They are releasing their new top 100 prospects list in January.

In comment 14219186 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Put me in the camp that would be ok with Castellanos. He may be bad defensively in the corner OF but would it really be any different than Conforto-Nimmo-Bruce last year? With defensive positioning these days I feel like you barely feel it in the OF. Nimmo is passable in CF and I actually am in favor of him ending up there because it means we brought in more offense somewhere else. A no hit defensive CF with Nimmo in a corner doesnt interest me as much. Catcher should be number one priority and I think it is but after that a RH hitter that can play some OF and even some 3B would suit me fine as the gravy on this train. That can be M. Gonzalez, Puig, Castellanos, etc.

Castellanos is literally the worst defensive RF in baseball. -19 DRS and a 12.9 UZR. The Tigers are also asking for a lot in return for him. He belongs in the AL.

-12.9 UZR

I really like his addition to the team for the next couple season but he could cease being a good player at any time and the wilpons still have to write checks to him that amount to $60m during the years he's age 38-40. Fingers crossed he's a reverse jeff kent. or adrian beltre. or ortiz. and the NL gets a DH in a couple years. I'm actually optimistic since his contact oriented / low K profile matches each of the others, but can't lose sight of that being an outlier possibility.

Dealing Kelenic sucked, but you have to give to get and he helped improve the team. If they finish the offseason strong and compete for the division it will still sting but worth it, just like Fulmer. If things go sideways 2 years from now, you can deal Diaz at the deadline and possibly get a prospect just as good.

Re: payroll, I'd be careful about perceiving the future to be a blank slate. In 2021 yes Cespedes is off the books but between only Cano ($20), JDG ($25m?), and Thor + Conforto each in their final arbitration years pre-FA you are looking at easily $80m between those 4 guys. If Diaz and Nimmo are still part of the core they are each in their 2nd arb year and probably take it over $100m. That's part of why I suspect we only have 1 more 3-4 year contract left in us this offseason, most likely for either Grandal or Pollock.

but there are talks between the Dodgers and Braves involving Puig.

In comment 14219300 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

but there are talks between the Dodgers and Braves involving Puig.

That would be an interesting move for Atl and I think be a very good calculated risk. Price of acquisition should be less than Goldschmidt and you guys certainly have the depth to do something similar.

In comment 14219305 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 14219300 Jay on the Island said: Quote: but there are talks between the Dodgers and Braves involving Puig. That would be an interesting move for Atl and I think be a very good calculated risk. Price of acquisition should be less than Goldschmidt and you guys certainly have the depth to do something similar.

It would be a better addition, assuming the price is fair, than giving a huge deal to Pollock or Brantley. Puig is under control for two more seasons. The Braves have a great relationship with the Dodgers as their GM Anthopoulos came over from there. That's a very exciting lineup with
Acuna
Donaldson
Freeman
Puig
Albies
Camargo

I don't see them going multi-year for a COF only. Even if they end up dealing Nimmo I think someone like Marwin or Pollock is more likely since they'd have more defensive flexibility if Cespedes does actually come back at some point.

In comment 14219308 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

In comment 14219305 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 14219300 Jay on the Island said: Quote: but there are talks between the Dodgers and Braves involving Puig. That would be an interesting move for Atl and I think be a very good calculated risk. Price of acquisition should be less than Goldschmidt and you guys certainly have the depth to do something similar. It would be a better addition, assuming the price is fair, than giving a huge deal to Pollock or Brantley. Puig is under control for two more seasons. The Braves have a great relationship with the Dodgers as their GM Anthopoulos came over from there. That's a very exciting lineup with Acuna Donaldson Freeman Puig Albies Camargo

With Inciarte that OF would cover a lot of ground too.

don't think you understand how bad Castellnos is defensively (and he's not a big-time hitter as it is). The Mets OF defense with Nimmo in CF and Castellanos in RF would be the worst CF/RF combo in baseball that doesn't even include whatever Alonso is or isn't. Oh and he's due 11-12 million, a FA after the year and costs prospects. EXTREMELY hard pass. Awful addition

projects Castellanos to be a 1.8 fWAR player. He's a name. Nothing more.

and teams don't move solid 3b to RF without a stud replacement unless they recognize... he's not a good 3b either... -14 DRS in 2017 at 3b. He's not good. As a FA on a cheap roll the dice? Maybe. As a trade target 11-12 this year? Absolutely not.

he's being playful but Thor took a shot seemingly at Martino/Cerrone on his twitter saying "SNY is trying to trade me"

and Ive been over my opinions on this before, but...

First, I don't care about defense in a CO outfield spot similarly to 1B. The position should be heavily weighted towards offense. I heard the same thing about Bruce when he came here and I never remember him embarrassing himself outside of maybe of 1 or 2 times total. If he had hit last year and stayed healthy nobody would have complained at all. Castellanos made 3 errors in RF last year all season. That's one error every two months.

Second, for younger players coming off a breakout season, Steamer is never going to give a generous prediction. Steamer is conservative by nature anyways, but a younger player with not a lot of experience playing at a high level, is never going to get a high future prediction. However, sometimes 26 year olds, especially former first round picks, breakout. Steamer doesnt know their pedigree or who's who. Its a computer system based on the same sample without bias. That works against it. There's a difference between Castellanos having a big year at 26 and Ty Wiggington. I mean Nimmo was worth 4.5 fWAR last year. While he might take a small step back does anyone really think he's going to be worth about half that based on his Steamer projection? It's the same thing.

All the players mentioned have warts, but I like Castellanos as much M. Gonzalez, Pollock, and some of the names being thrown around.

In comment 14219336 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

and Ive been over my opinions on this before, but... First, I don't care about defense in a CO outfield spot similarly to 1B. The position should be heavily weighted towards offense. I heard the same thing about Bruce when he came here and I never remember him embarrassing himself outside of maybe of 1 or 2 times total. If he had hit last year and stayed healthy nobody would have complained at all. Castellanos made 3 errors in RF last year all season. That's one error every two months. Second, for younger players coming off a breakout season, Steamer is never going to give a generous prediction. Steamer is conservative by nature anyways, but a younger player with not a lot of experience playing at a high level, is never going to get a high future prediction. However, sometimes 26 year olds, especially former first round picks, breakout. Steamer doesnt know their pedigree or who's who. Its a computer system based on the same sample without bias. That works against it. There's a difference between Castellanos having a big year at 26 and Ty Wiggington. I mean Nimmo was worth 4.5 fWAR last year. While he might take a small step back does anyone really think he's going to be worth about half that based on his Steamer projection? It's the same thing. All the players mentioned have warts, but I like Castellanos as much M. Gonzalez, Pollock, and some of the names being thrown around.

I'm very surprised by this as you are usually reference sabermetrics in most of your projections. I put more value in DRS than errors for an OF. If you disagree that's fine but my preference would be to pass especially since Castellanos will cost a decent prospect to acquire.

DRS and UZR with players Jay. I usually weigh them against each other. But Im expanding the conversation here. When it comes to corner outfield and first base you basically need a player that can hit (obviously we cant have a butcher there) or you end up spending big money on a Heyward which is a massive waste IMO. Well what's a butcher then? A butcher is putting Todd Hundley out in LF where he doesnt even know how to catch a ball. Castellanos played the bulk of the season in RF and only made three errors. Bruce was the worst RF in the game, or one of them coming over too but as soon as the season started nobody complained at all.

Its not like 3B or the middle infield where your athleticism is constantly on display and you have to make accurate decisions at a lighting pace. CO? Meh.. With defensive positioning these days most of the guess work is taking out of it.

is nothing about Castellanos "breakout" that is appealing.

1) K rate and BB rate was same as his career averages
2) BABIP was .361, he's always posted high BABIP but that's 30 points above his career number. He's not posting a .361 BABIP again. 4 players in major league history have a .360+ BABIP
3) Awful defender, errors are a ridiculous way to judge an OF. Fully ignores the balls he doesn't get to. Even on a simplistic level a casual fan would realize this so it's a strange stance to have.
4) ISO was WORSE than the previous year
5) He's going to be making 11-12 million, that's big money for the Mets. Not some "lets roll the dice"
6) There is no advantage to Castellanos other than the years of commitment over Nelson Cruz (not that I want Cruz) but similarly awful in the OF, better hitter.
6) He costs prospects, Tigers ask is reportedly quite high. So not really sure the Marwin Gonzalez comp. One costs legit prospects.


Fangraphs

"All in all, this won�t be the most exciting offseason for the Tigers. While I�m an advocate of the team trading Nicholas Castellanos before he hits free agency. he�s is also nearly a hundred points off his June 1st OPS, and the market for corner types who don�t contribute defensively has been extremely weak.

anthony fenech
‏
Verified account

@anthonyfenech
Following Following @anthonyfenech
More
The Tigers have talked with the Mets about Castellanos, I�m told. The asking price is high, among other words and phrases, according to multiple teams who have spoken with them.


Hard pass.

He's also averaged north of 2 fWAR the last three seasons so while I agree he he had a high BABIP and might not be a wRC+ 130 guy next year, he also looks like a pretty safe bet to crush lefties and pop 20 HRs. I don't see particularly low floor coming. A RH player like that in the mix is something this teams needs IMO.

but he never posted a season as bad as -19 DRS in his career. His worst season was -11 DRS but he only posted a - DRS one other time in his career which was -1 DRS. Bruce did post two seasons of +16 DRS which is quite good including his age 26 season.

and even the less important positions factor into that equation significantly. It's not about errors, it's about outs given back to the other team in the form of hits or extra bases. Not caring about defense is exactly how the Mets have been among the worst teams in the league in runs given back to their opposition by a variety of metrics over the past 3-5 years. Since losing the world series mostly because of bad defense and untimely hitting, they are -166 in DRS (2nd worst in baseball 2016-2018).

Can't fix a major problem like that by bringing more severe negative fielders - regardless of position.

In comment 14219362 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

but he never posted a season as bad as -19 DRS in his career. His worst season was -11 DRS but he only posted a - DRS one other time in his career which was -1 DRS. Bruce did post two seasons of +16 DRS which is quite good including his age 26 season.

Yeah well I'd be wary of that DRS score too. UZR liked Castellanos better so I'd in the least weigh them against each other. Especially for a younger guy basically playing OF for the bulk of the season for the first time in his career. There's a real chance he could actually improve but we simply don't have a long enough sample of him there to call him a -18 DRS guy. .

In comment 14219363 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

and even the less important positions factor into that equation significantly. It's not about errors, it's about outs given back to the other team in the form of hits or extra bases. Not caring about defense is exactly how the Mets have been among the worst teams in the league in runs given back to their opposition by a variety of metrics over the past 3-5 years. Since losing the world series mostly because of bad defense and untimely hitting, they are -166 in DRS (2nd worst in baseball 2016-2018). Can't fix a major problem like that by bringing more severe negative fielders - regardless of position.

Disagree. Please tell me the last time a significant corner outfielder hurt the Mets chances in anything? I seriously cant remember anything. People point to Duda in the WS because of his throw (I doubt he gets the out even if it was on target) but Duda wasn't even a bad defender here. He was absolutely fine for 1B standards.

is "the guy" if you're looking at a Castellanos type move. Easily

In comment 14219368 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

In comment 14219363 Eric on Li said: Quote: and even the less important positions factor into that equation significantly. It's not about errors, it's about outs given back to the other team in the form of hits or extra bases. Not caring about defense is exactly how the Mets have been among the worst teams in the league in runs given back to their opposition by a variety of metrics over the past 3-5 years. Since losing the world series mostly because of bad defense and untimely hitting, they are -166 in DRS (2nd worst in baseball 2016-2018). Can't fix a major problem like that by bringing more severe negative fielders - regardless of position. Disagree. Please tell me the last time a significant corner outfielder hurt the Mets chances in anything? I seriously cant remember anything. People point to Duda in the WS because of his throw (I doubt he gets the out even if it was on target) but Duda wasn't even a bad defender here. He was absolutely fine for 1B standards.

You can disagree all you want, your opinion flies in the face of the facts. You cost your team runs by not getting to balls. I'm not going down this rabbit hole with you but it's a very strange stance. Every ball that falls in is a potential run, how could you even argue otherwise? Why don't teams just stick poor fielders in the corners all the time? You are on an island for Castellanos. Lets hear this price you deem fair (remember he's taking up roughly half of the rumored 25ish they have remaining).

question. is there anyone else here who agrees OF defense isn't important and errors are a good way to judge them? I'm really perplexed here.

In comment 14219369 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

is "the guy" if you're looking at a Castellanos type move. Easily

Ill take Puig all day long.

if that's the case explain this

" the market for corner types who don�t contribute defensively has been extremely weak."

In comment 14219375 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

In comment 14219369 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is "the guy" if you're looking at a Castellanos type move. Easily Ill take Puig all day long.

Puig comes with his own baggage but he can fake it in CF at times and I think he's the type that plays his ass off in a walk year. What that says about retaining him? Who knows. But I think he puts up a big time season. The Mets also have something of a vanilla roster. A little spice might be good for them.

In comment 14219374 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

question. is there anyone else here who agrees OF defense isn't important and errors are a good way to judge them? I'm really perplexed here.

That's not what I said at all Dan. You guys laid out his DRS and UZR last year. I simply expanded the conversation. Like Bruce, everybody thought he was a butcher but with defensive positioning these days, offense is most important in a corner OF spot. If you want to talk about Nimmo in CF, well thats another conversation but in terms of Castellanos playing RF (and likely mixing in and out when Cespedes returns) I don't see a huge issues. The only reason I am pointing out errors is to show whether or not the guy was a three ring cirrus out there or not. That doesnt appear to be the case.

In comment 14219376 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

if that's the case explain this " the market for corner types who don�t contribute defensively has been extremely weak."

Sounds like his price tag is still pretty high though. Like I said, most of the players have warts. Im not trying to change the conversation and say he's a good defender or something. Just trying to make an argument for adding his bat. I think he was the best in baseball last year in hitting lefties. Im ok with a few options there though. Still think we should resolve catcher first.

2016-2018
Mets overall DRS = -166 (2nd worst in baseball)
Mets overall UZR = -33 (7th worst in baseball)
Overall team run differential = -105

The reality is they have not had enough POSITIVE defenders in the last several years - Granderson in '15 and '16 made a ton of good catches and I believe got GG votes, Lagares is obviously beyond good when he plays. But that list is far too short. Average fielders may not do much damage but they don't help you either. To be good on defense you need good defenders, not average ones. And bad defenders are obviously very harmful.

change the topic a bit. Not really sure why everyone is so concerned about Grandal aging poorly


Russell Martin through 4 years has been worth his contract by fWAR. Granted year 5 will be a loss but 1. He's turning 36 2. Would anyone here not take 3 years of Grandal being an above average regular with year 4 being a "well his contract expires after the year, we need to replace him"? I would.

In comment 14219385 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

2016-2018 Mets overall DRS = -166 (2nd worst in baseball) Mets overall UZR = -33 (7th worst in baseball) Overall team run differential = -105 The reality is they have not had enough POSITIVE defenders in the last several years - Granderson in '15 and '16 made a ton of good catches and I believe got GG votes, Lagares is obviously beyond good when he plays. But that list is far too short. Average fielders may not do much damage but they don't help you either. To be good on defense you need good defenders, not average ones. And bad defenders are obviously very harmful.

I have no idea what you're trying to do by pooling all defensive metrics together and bringing in seasons where we had complete wipeouts in injuries and were playing guys like 38 year old Bautista in the OF. I agree we need to get better defensively, especially in the middle infield and at catcher. Third base was a disaster before Frazier stepped in last year. I certainly wouldn't want a butcher in CF (although I think Conforto and Nimmo can play there passably). Im simply stating that at the CO positions and 1B the positions need to be weighted towards offense. It is not acceptable to have league average offense at those positions. SS? Absolutely fine. Some people understand this. Some people don't I guess.

however, I think it would be completely disingenuous of the Mets to be out on Machado b/c of "character" (my assumption) and then pursue Puig.

It is clearly because of money and they should just say that instead of offering up other reasons or letting people speculate.

In comment 14219390 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

change the topic a bit. Not really sure why everyone is so concerned about Grandal aging poorly Russell Martin through 4 years has been worth his contract by fWAR. Granted year 5 will be a loss but 1. He's turning 36 2. Would anyone here not take 3 years of Grandal being an above average regular with year 4 being a "well his contract expires after the year, we need to replace him"? I would.

At this point, just sign him. The Realmuto rumors have made me sick.

Im going to be pretty happy if we land one of the bigger catchers (Realmuto, Grandal, or Ramos) a RH hitting OF (Puig, Castellanos, M. Gonzalez, Pollock) and another reliever (Not an elite guy like Miller but a "name").

Thats a real solid offseason and it seems possible at this point IMO.

but Machado or Harper should have been realistic, both represented needs, both 26 years old superstars, and Machado especially costs only $$$. Harper needs a draft pick, but that should hardly be a consideration when adding a player of this caliber.

It's not often you have the chance to add a player like this without leveraging the farm.

Shit, a 24 year old closer cost 2 of the Mets top 5 prospects.

that is the plight of the Mets fan. There is no reasonable rational argument that Harper or Machado should not be realistic for the Mets, but here we are with many in the fan base automatically accepting that (not that we have any choice unless we jump ship like Arc did).

Because of the Cano addition I don�t think Machado should be a realistic want anymore. Starting the season with Frazier at 3B with McNeil hopefully looking to take over or at least platoon with him is one thing, but Machado completely boxes either him or Rosario out at this point. Harper, of course, I would still like but considering the suitors it was always a long shot even if money was limitless.

If you told me going in I couldn�t have Machado or Harper but I could have three relievers (one the best closer in baseball last year, another a top setup option) , the best FA catcher, and two more additional bats coming off good seasons, one a Hall of Famer... I would have definitely signed up for that.

In comment 14219390 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

change the topic a bit. Not really sure why everyone is so concerned about Grandal aging poorly Russell Martin through 4 years has been worth his contract by fWAR. Granted year 5 will be a loss but 1. He's turning 36 2. Would anyone here not take 3 years of Grandal being an above average regular with year 4 being a "well his contract expires after the year, we need to replace him"? I would.

My concern with Grandal isn't so much that he ages poorly but rather changes teams poorly and the uncertainty/volatility of framing metrics since that's where a ton of his value is built into. 1 observation Pitch framing metrics are highly volatile and 1 suggestion I've seen is it falls off dramatically after a certain age (like Maldonado, Lucroy, and Cervelli) but another observation is some of those guys stats were just better when the pitching staffs they caught were better.

McGee with some cash and take back Vargas or something. McGee needs a change of scenery. We then could maybe nab Gio for the 5th spot.

With Grandal (check out his May, June, and July splits last year) but at this point he is a solid upgrade/veteran presence that this team sorely needs if they want to be playoff contenders.

In comment 14219429 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Because of the Cano addition I don�t think Machado should be a realistic want anymore. Starting the season with Frazier at 3B with McNeil hopefully looking to take over or at least platoon with him is one thing, but Machado completely boxes either him or Rosario out at this point. Harper, of course, I would still like but considering the suitors it was always a long shot even if money was limitless. If you told me going in I couldn�t have Machado or Harper but I could have three relievers (one the best closer in baseball last year, another a top setup option) , the best FA catcher, and two more additional bats coming off good seasons, one a Hall of Famer... I would have definitely signed up for that.

Diaz and Harper/Machado should have absolutely ZERO to do with each other. Cano obviously does, but I'd be fine with Cano at 1B, Machado at 3B, Rosario at SS and McNeil at 2B.

Diaz cost Kelenic and Dunn, not $$$.

I think Cano and Diaz were almost separate transactions. At least they should be thought of that way.

Cano and $20M for Bruce and Swarzak

Diaz for Kelenic and Dunn.

would be an awful move. We finally got rid of Bruce, an awful defender who cost us runs constantly with his pathetic range and now the idea is to give up assets and get an even worse fielder?

This is the NL, there�s no DH. I�ll pass on bringing in another butcher.

Can we stop saying that we got a HALL OF FAMER as if we are getting Cano in his prime and not the 36 year old, recent PED user in the twilight of his career?

In comment 14219450 PhiPsi125 said:

Quote:

Can we stop saying that we got a HALL OF FAMER as if we are getting Cano in his prime and not the 36 year old, recent PED user in the twilight of his career?

Until he declines and there is evidence of that nope. Sorry. He got tested, was clean, served a 3 month suspension, came back and never skipped a beat.

In comment 14219441 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 14219429 ZGiants98 said: Quote: Because of the Cano addition I don�t think Machado should be a realistic want anymore. Starting the season with Frazier at 3B with McNeil hopefully looking to take over or at least platoon with him is one thing, but Machado completely boxes either him or Rosario out at this point. Harper, of course, I would still like but considering the suitors it was always a long shot even if money was limitless. If you told me going in I couldn�t have Machado or Harper but I could have three relievers (one the best closer in baseball last year, another a top setup option) , the best FA catcher, and two more additional bats coming off good seasons, one a Hall of Famer... I would have definitely signed up for that. Diaz and Harper/Machado should have absolutely ZERO to do with each other. Cano obviously does, but I'd be fine with Cano at 1B, Machado at 3B, Rosario at SS and McNeil at 2B. Diaz cost Kelenic and Dunn, not $$$. I think Cano and Diaz were almost separate transactions. At least they should be thought of that way. Cano and $20M for Bruce and Swarzak Diaz for Kelenic and Dunn.

Huh? No idea what you are referring to here. I was saying the Cano addition makes Machado less of a need and would block a player. BVW has already said Alonso is the opening day starter. So either way somebody is getting screwed. Separately, I was commenting an offseason that brought in 6 quality players. I think that would have been a good offseason.

In comment 14219450 PhiPsi125 said:

Quote:

Can we stop saying that we got a HALL OF FAMER as if we are getting Cano in his prime and not the 36 year old, recent PED user in the twilight of his career?

Hey, he's still a "hall of famer" for the remaining 1.5 years of his likely usefulness.

In comment 14219469 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

In comment 14219441 pjcas18 said: Quote: In comment 14219429 ZGiants98 said: Quote: Because of the Cano addition I don�t think Machado should be a realistic want anymore. Starting the season with Frazier at 3B with McNeil hopefully looking to take over or at least platoon with him is one thing, but Machado completely boxes either him or Rosario out at this point. Harper, of course, I would still like but considering the suitors it was always a long shot even if money was limitless. If you told me going in I couldn�t have Machado or Harper but I could have three relievers (one the best closer in baseball last year, another a top setup option) , the best FA catcher, and two more additional bats coming off good seasons, one a Hall of Famer... I would have definitely signed up for that. Diaz and Harper/Machado should have absolutely ZERO to do with each other. Cano obviously does, but I'd be fine with Cano at 1B, Machado at 3B, Rosario at SS and McNeil at 2B. Diaz cost Kelenic and Dunn, not $$$. I think Cano and Diaz were almost separate transactions. At least they should be thought of that way. Cano and $20M for Bruce and Swarzak Diaz for Kelenic and Dunn. Huh? No idea what you are referring to here. I was saying the Cano addition makes Machado less of a need and would block a player. BVW has already said Alonso is the opening day starter. So either way somebody is getting screwed. Separately, I was commenting an offseason that brought in 6 quality players. I think that would have been a good offseason.

I was replying to this comment where besides the fact it hasn't happened, you seemed to lump in Diaz in some way to pursuing Machado or Harper.

The reason I replied to this is the "best closer in baseball last year" didn't cost $$$ he cost prospects, and should not be part of a "we can't sign Harper or Machado, but instead..." discussion.

Second, they only added two relievers (so far) and only one cost $$$ and it was not considered a lot of money.

They have not signed any free agent catchers and no additional bats other than the bloated 36-year old Cano's contract.

Quote:

If you told me going in I couldn�t have Machado or Harper but I could have three relievers (one the best closer in baseball last year, another a top setup option) , the best FA catcher, and two more additional bats coming off good seasons, one a Hall of Famer... I would have definitely signed up for that.

As I've said, the Mets are better today than they were at season's end, but sometimes you go too far.

It was a hypothetical that said �if we add another reliever, top catcher, and RH hitting OF such as... and I listed 4 of them. No idea where this went to but I�m out. Lol. Have a nice day.

doing something questionable, people being exasperated, and Z doing his best juggling act show to explain why it's good and makes sense until he gets frustrated.

In comment 14219494 Ten Ton Hammer said:

Quote:

doing something questionable, people being exasperated, and Z doing his best juggling act show to explain why it's good and makes sense until he gets frustrated.

exactly.

I wouldn't mind it, sometimes I admire Z's ability to remain optimistic and none of us has any influence over the FO so it's not like we have a choice or it's not like anyone gives a shit if we're exasperated, I just don't like when it gets contentious or personal.

In comment 14219494 Ten Ton Hammer said:

Quote:

doing something questionable, people being exasperated, and Z doing his best juggling act show to explain why it's good and makes sense until he gets frustrated.

Yup - there�s legitimate reason for optimism around things bvw has said and done but there are also structural issues that remain from the top down that make progress harder for this organization than it needs to be.

The Braves are still in talks with the Marlins about Realmuto. Apparently 3B Austin Riley and P Bryse Wilson is the current offer. I really don't want to give up Riley. Even with the emergence of Camargo losing a right handed power hitting 3B is not a wise move. He will be MLB ready at some point this season also. They have a hole in RF and Riley would be a perfect fit to move there. Why trade 6 years of control for him and 6 year for a potential mid rotation starter pitcher for 2 years of Realmuto?

$4 million. Great re-signing for them.

In comment 14219727 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

The Braves are still in talks with the Marlins about Realmuto. Apparently 3B Austin Riley and P Bryse Wilson is the current offer. I really don't want to give up Riley. Even with the emergence of Camargo losing a right handed power hitting 3B is not a wise move. He will be MLB ready at some point this season also. They have a hole in RF and Riley would be a perfect fit to move there. Why trade 6 years of control for him and 6 year for a potential mid rotation starter pitcher for 2 years of Realmuto?

You mean, they aren�t asking for Acuna or Camargo to be in the deal as well? Weird considering what they were demanding from the Mets.

In comment 14219746 PhiPsi125 said:

Quote:

In comment 14219727 Jay on the Island said: Quote: The Braves are still in talks with the Marlins about Realmuto. Apparently 3B Austin Riley and P Bryse Wilson is the current offer. I really don't want to give up Riley. Even with the emergence of Camargo losing a right handed power hitting 3B is not a wise move. He will be MLB ready at some point this season also. They have a hole in RF and Riley would be a perfect fit to move there. Why trade 6 years of control for him and 6 year for a potential mid rotation starter pitcher for 2 years of Realmuto? You mean, they aren�t asking for Acuna or Camargo to be in the deal as well? Weird considering what they were demanding from the Mets.

At last season's trade deadline they did. Then they demanded Ozzie Albies. The Braves offered them Soroka and Austin Riley but the idiotic Marlins said no. This offseason they asked for Albies again but the Braves said no. The Marlins have already messed this up.

In comment 14219764 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

In comment 14219746 PhiPsi125 said: Quote: In comment 14219727 Jay on the Island said: Quote: The Braves are still in talks with the Marlins about Realmuto. Apparently 3B Austin Riley and P Bryse Wilson is the current offer. I really don't want to give up Riley. Even with the emergence of Camargo losing a right handed power hitting 3B is not a wise move. He will be MLB ready at some point this season also. They have a hole in RF and Riley would be a perfect fit to move there. Why trade 6 years of control for him and 6 year for a potential mid rotation starter pitcher for 2 years of Realmuto? You mean, they aren�t asking for Acuna or Camargo to be in the deal as well? Weird considering what they were demanding from the Mets. At last season's trade deadline they did. Then they demanded Ozzie Albies. The Braves offered them Soroka and Austin Riley but the idiotic Marlins said no. This offseason they asked for Albies again but the Braves said no. The Marlins have already messed this up.

Huh, I didn�t know that.

I agree that they will mess this up. They will get something for Realmuto but I think they will talk their way out of better deals.

In comment 14219778 PhiPsi125 said:

Quote:

In comment 14219764 Jay on the Island said: Quote: In comment 14219746 PhiPsi125 said: Quote: In comment 14219727 Jay on the Island said: Quote: The Braves are still in talks with the Marlins about Realmuto. Apparently 3B Austin Riley and P Bryse Wilson is the current offer. I really don't want to give up Riley. Even with the emergence of Camargo losing a right handed power hitting 3B is not a wise move. He will be MLB ready at some point this season also. They have a hole in RF and Riley would be a perfect fit to move there. Why trade 6 years of control for him and 6 year for a potential mid rotation starter pitcher for 2 years of Realmuto? You mean, they aren�t asking for Acuna or Camargo to be in the deal as well? Weird considering what they were demanding from the Mets. At last season's trade deadline they did. Then they demanded Ozzie Albies. The Braves offered them Soroka and Austin Riley but the idiotic Marlins said no. This offseason they asked for Albies again but the Braves said no. The Marlins have already messed this up. Huh, I didn�t know that. I agree that they will mess this up. They will get something for Realmuto but I think they will talk their way out of better deals.

Agreed, they will get a shot of either Conforto or Rosario as part of the package but then demand both. The Mets will wisely move on. The Marlins will then come back and try to get one and the Mets will say no and end up getting him for Gimenez and Peterson.

who went on to have an MVP season. They are terrified of making the same mistake so instead of finding a fair trade for both sides they want a superstar return for a good but not great player.

AND our all star outfielder. Even adding Rosario is a stretch. He was the number one prospect just a little over a year ago.

The Marlins are out of their minds.

if they just kept Yelich, Ozuna, and Gordon.

Stanton I get, his contract is massive and was stupid and a sham, but if they did the Stanton trade right they could have just added pieces to the 3 above.

They had the best OF in baseball.

Jose Fernandez hurt, I wonder if he didn't die if they'd still have sold off those guys (and more...realmuto, etc.)

And this isn't the 1997/1998 sell off, those guys were mostly older veterans.

In comment 14219786 PhiPsi125 said:

Quote:

AND our all star outfielder. Even adding Rosario is a stretch. He was the number one prospect just a little over a year ago. The Marlins are out of their minds.

Agreed, I think they should be thrilled with a package of Gimenez, Mauricio, and Szapucki for Realmuto.

In comment 14219806 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

In comment 14219786 PhiPsi125 said: Quote: AND our all star outfielder. Even adding Rosario is a stretch. He was the number one prospect just a little over a year ago. The Marlins are out of their minds. Agreed, I think they should be thrilled with a package of Gimenez, Mauricio, and Szapucki for Realmuto.

That would be an awful trade for the Mets.

They should just sign Grandal.

I'd rather trade Rosario than that package.

Plan all along was sign Stanton (notice how backloaded and when that started?) and �convince� people this time it�s different. Hint - it wasn�t. They were still being run by the biggest scumbags in all of sports.
Plan was to be competitive heading into the all star game season.
Sign a monster local contract
Sell team

Local contract never materialized...

mostly because corner outfielders are a lot easier to find than catchers. I wouldn't like it because I believe in his ability to get on base at a very high level and be a real good hardworking top of the order guy who is cost controlled for a while.

Sherman wrote a pretty good article on Realmuto, if the Marlins weren't being insane and had we not already given up Kelenic I'd be a lot more excited about the idea of giving up a chunk of the future for him.

Dave O�Brien said the latest rumor is untrue and that the Braves haven�t been in contact with Miami for 5 days and they have moved on to the next target. Great job Miami! I hope the Braves turn their attention over to Cervelli.

marlins to another city.

been hoping that with all the desperation for a good catcher, one team will buckle. That hasn't happened yet, so they'll either have to keep him or lower their demands.

The Marlins once again were demanding Ozzie Albies in return.

plain and simple. And they should move quick before teams move on to Grandal and Ramos or Cervelli; Teams angling for catchers seem to be Mets, Braves, Reds, Angels; the more the market weakens, the lower than can get back. His value will never be higher than right now IMO

Mets won both of those trades, but the players they got in return were by no means sure things. Syndergaard was a low top 100 pick; and I think d'Arnaud was wayy overrated at the time. Someone like Nimmo, who has 4 years control, similar WAR, and another mid-level prospect is a fair return, even with positional value; and they really should be shooting for lower level (meaning 2-3 years away) prospects with high ceilings than major league ready talent. They are nowhere near competing.

They messed up at the deadline passing on top 20 prospect P Mike Soroka and top 40 prospect 3B Austin Riley. They won�t get close to that now. The Braves are out and the Mets might be also which further lowers the return. I can�t believe how poorly Miami has handled this situation. Give me Cervelli for a fraction of the cost and I would be thrilled.

want to trade Realmuto.

It seems like since he requested a trade they feel obligated to go through the motions, but based on their asking price and the trades they allegedly turned down, I don't know if the Marlins really want to trade him.

And I'm not sure it's they're embarrassed about the price they got back for Yelich, I think they maybe just don't want to trade him.

In comment 14220152 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

want to trade Realmuto. It seems like since he requested a trade they feel obligated to go through the motions, but based on their asking price and the trades they allegedly turned down, I don't know if the Marlins really want to trade him. And I'm not sure it's they're embarrassed about the price they got back for Yelich, I think they maybe just don't want to trade him.

I know that they didn�t want to trade him originally but IIRC he told them he wasn�t going to sign an extension so they have no choice now. They could always hope that he changes his mind but that won�t happen with the lack of talent on the roster and lack of MLB ready prospects.

In comment 14220162 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

In comment 14220152 pjcas18 said: Quote: want to trade Realmuto. It seems like since he requested a trade they feel obligated to go through the motions, but based on their asking price and the trades they allegedly turned down, I don't know if the Marlins really want to trade him. And I'm not sure it's they're embarrassed about the price they got back for Yelich, I think they maybe just don't want to trade him. I know that they didn�t want to trade him originally but IIRC he told them he wasn�t going to sign an extension so they have no choice now. They could always hope that he changes his mind but that won�t happen with the lack of talent on the roster and lack of MLB ready prospects.

He's under contract for two more years and then they can offer him a QO to at least get draft pick compensation.

They don't have to trade him. The Nats didn't trade Harper.

Of course the Marlins on not a contender, but still doesn't mean they have no choice.

In comment 14220102 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

The Marlins once again were demanding Ozzie Albies in return.

Albies? Haha, that�s classic. How many prospects are the Marlins willing to throw in with Reamulto to even that trade up?

up until the last few months there they were trying to win and knew they were going to negotiate to resign him. So not sending him to a contender that could presumably improve their odds of resigning him was a calculated gamble.

For the Marlins neither of those are realistic so it would be a big risk of squandering a major return to take Realmuto into this season bc the amount of deadline buyers will be almost definitely smaller than the amount of interested teams right now - and obviously if he has a slow first half or gets hurt that will negatively impact his value in a big way. Goldschmidt showed players 1 year from FA don't hold a ton of value. Passing up this moment where Realmuto's is among the top assets available with unrealistic expectations would be extremely risky - the only thing that would force teams to ante up even more is if Realmuto plays even better, but even then the market of teams will likely be smaller with half the league not in playoff contention.

In comment 14220220 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

up until the last few months there they were trying to win and knew they were going to negotiate to resign him. So not sending him to a contender that could presumably improve their odds of resigning him was a calculated gamble. For the Marlins neither of those are realistic so it would be a big risk of squandering a major return to take Realmuto into this season bc the amount of deadline buyers will be almost definitely smaller than the amount of interested teams right now - and obviously if he has a slow first half or gets hurt that will negatively impact his value in a big way. Goldschmidt showed players 1 year from FA don't hold a ton of value. Passing up this moment where Realmuto's is among the top assets available with unrealistic expectations would be extremely risky - the only thing that would force teams to ante up even more is if Realmuto plays even better, but even then the market of teams will likely be smaller with half the league not in playoff contention.

None of this means the Marlins don't have a choice. Of course they have a choice and they're acting now like they don't want to trade him.

At least not at this time or at last deadline.

keeping him is a short term benefit when they have no chance of competing in the short term and he has made it clear to them he doesn't want to be there. If the Mets were a last place team and JDG demanded a trade + refused to negotiate an extension none of us would think holding him until FA and just recouping a draft pick was a good option. We'd think it was insanity because it would be. We'd want to sell him for whatever his highest value is.

Obviously you don't trade good players for nothing but every qualified rumor is that there has been a very aggressive market for him yet the Marlins asks have been through the roof. They seem to be overcompensating from the Yelich trade last year, possibly to their own detriment.

In comment 14220266 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

keeping him is a short term benefit when they have no chance of competing in the short term and he has made it clear to them he doesn't want to be there. If the Mets were a last place team and JDG demanded a trade + refused to negotiate an extension none of us would think holding him until FA and just recouping a draft pick was a good option. We'd think it was insanity because it would be. We'd want to sell him for whatever his highest value is. Obviously you don't trade good players for nothing but every qualified rumor is that there has been a very aggressive market for him yet the Marlins asks have been through the roof. They seem to be overcompensating from the Yelich trade last year, possibly to their own detriment.

Exactly right Eric.

We have posts on here that the Braves offered more at the deadline than anyone is offering right now.

and the Marlins rejected it.

You have no idea how the landscape will change at the deadline or even after the season.

Maybe a team thinks they're a catcher away. the pool might be smaller, but the desperation might be higher.

Right now, it seems like the Marlins don't want to trade Realmuto. I think that's really indisputable.

Once the season starts Realmuto's team control decreases each day and with that having increasing importance in every trade, to some degree that makes him a depreciating asset. Could the future landscape change in way that favors the Marlins? It's possible, but just as possible that the landscape factors hurt the Marlins position in conjunction to having a player with less term on his contract to trade.

The negative landscape factors also seem more predictable than the positive - it's a good bet that 1 of these teams currently after Realmuto is going to sign Grandal in the next few weeks and no longer be in on Realmuto. Same with Ramos. Same with a possible Cervelli trade. At the deadline Perez could be on the market and having a better season than Realmuto. Lucroy was the last all star catcher dealt at the deadline with 1.5 years of team control left, I don't think Miami would find comfort with that return.

Right now, Realmuto is coming off a career year with 2 full years left on his deal and somewhere between 5-10 teams pursuing him as their #1 option. Hard to envision more favorable circumstances.

Martino says reporters trying to confirm but haven't yet.

hopefully 2 years. Very impressed with how BVW has kept his FA targets under the radar. We heard a lot more about Miller + Grandal yet ended up with Familia/Ramos.