NFT: Familia returns to the Mets, 3 years, 30 million

Forget Nimmo or Conforto, the appropriate price for Realmuto would be 2 of the prospects the Marlins "like". Gimenez, Vientos, Mauricio. Not some of them AND Conforto or Nimmo. Absurd. #Mets

Should be diagnosed as Obsessive Compulsive. I know because I am one.

In comment 14217566 TyreeHelmet said:

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I know its still early but anyone else getting a bad feeling about BVW the GM? All I see thus far is an inexperienced agent turned GM who wants to get target his former clients. I was hoping he would get the Wilpons to spend and navigate free agency deftly. So far there is zero evidence of that. But atleast Fred and Jeff have a polished speaker they can throw in front of a mic.

me me me ! We are getting an all-Brody Team

Jeurys could be best set up man in baseball. Ability to get grounders makes him ideal to bring in with men on base. Also setup fits his personality.

Deal also shows BVW plays it close to the vest. Media was completely in the dark.

That tells me Thor is going nowhere.

I also doubt they have any interest in Grandal. Not really much of an upgrade. Why would they offer TDA arbitration and then sign a guy who is not much better? I think it will be Realmuto or Mets just go with what they got. Ramos a possibility but only for right price

In comment 14217752 Vanzetti said:

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Jeurys could be best set up man in baseball. Ability to get grounders makes him ideal to bring in with men on base. Also setup fits his personality. Deal also shows BVW plays it close to the vest. Media was completely in the dark. That tells me Thor is going nowhere. I also doubt they have any interest in Grandal. Not really much of an upgrade. Why would they offer TDA arbitration and then sign a guy who is not much better? I think it will be Realmuto or Mets just go with what they got. Ramos a possibility but only for right price

Um. Grandal is one of the best catchers in baseball both offensively and defensively

2018 Grandal 3.6 fWAR... TDA's entire career 4.3

TDA career wRC+ 96
Grandal career 115

Is this parody? Otherwise wow.

4 seasons best catchers in baseball by fWAR

1) Posey
2) Realmuto
3) Grandal

the next best C isn't within 2 wins of Grandal

wRC+
1) Sanchez
2) Posey
3) Grandal

wOBA
1) Sanchez
2) Posey
3) Contreras
4) Chiniros
5) Grandal

HR
1)Perez
2) Grandal

DRS
1) Grandal
2) Molina

Grandal sucks and will likely decline over a four year deal

If all you had to do was add up fWAR or OPS+, any 15 year old with decent math skills could be a GM

I will go on record saying that Grandal will be a terrible signing if he gets four years at prices being projected. Will you put your money where your mouth is and say the opposite? Or just quote a bunch ofnmbrrs anybody can look up on fangraphs?

1) Mathis
2) Grandal

2017
1) Flowers
2) Grandal

In comment 14217773 Vanzetti said:

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Grandal sucks and will likely decline over a four year deal If all you had to do was add up fWAR or OPS+, any 15 year old with decent math skills could be a GM I will go on record saying that Grandal will be a terrible signing if he gets four years at prices being projected. Will you put your money where your mouth is and say the opposite? Or just quote a bunch ofnmbrrs anybody can look up on fangraphs?

I'll make it very simple for you. The Mets were on the fence tendering TDA a contract for 1 year 3 million. Grandal will get a deal at very minimum.. 10 times that. At minimum.. why?

over 4 year deal.. so we are deviating from our argument now? Grandal will be an above average regular and top 3-4 at his position in 2019 barring injury, TDA will not. You said they were close. This is not based in reality.

but yes sure. Grandal will be at MINIMUM twice as valuable d'Arnaud over the life of his contract barring career altering injury. Quote me.

There is little difference between Grandal and Realmuto?

You are a smart dude who knows a ton about baseball, but you make dumb statements like all of us do. Your love of Grandal is misplaced and all it tells me is you have never watched him on a regular basis

put down the computer and take a walk.

makes sense to just spend money on a competent catcher. But this is the Mets we are talking about, creating holes elsewhere to get a slightly better player.

In comment 14217786 Vanzetti said:

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There is little difference between Grandal and Realmuto? You are a smart dude who knows a ton about baseball, but you make dumb statements like all of us do. Your love of Grandal is misplaced and all it tells me is you have never watched him on a regular basis

Vanzetti... are you suggesting MLB teams don't either? Because he's going to get at minimum 13 million per season on a multi-year deal.. why? If the Mets non-tendered TDA he wouldn't get ANYWHERE near that. Why? Teams are dumb? Grandal must be a total moron. He turned down 18 million from the Dodgers to become a FA. If the Mets offered anywhere near that for TDA people would be uproariously laughing at the Mets.

In comment 14217786 Vanzetti said:

Quote:

There is little difference between Grandal and Realmuto? You are a smart dude who knows a ton about baseball, but you make dumb statements like all of us do. Your love of Grandal is misplaced and all it tells me is you have never watched him on a regular basis

And if you're going to claim I said something at least be factual. I said STEAMER projects the 2 of them to be roughly equal in 2019. Steamer also doesn't love Nimmo, I don't agree with that.

projects Grandal 3.6 fWAR, Realmuto 3.7. Take issue with them.
Link - ( New Window )

balls are some weird new obsession for fans. Guess which 2 teams led baseball in passed balls... Yankees and Red Sox.

Grandal .773 OPS
Realmuto .785

Brodie must not watch games either?


NYPOST 12/1

Yasmani Grandal�s name was discussed by Mets officials earlier in the offseason then largely buried to concentrate on other pursuits. But with two pieces close to falling into place, the team could be preparing to circle back toward the veteran catcher.

12/11

Free agent Yasmani Grandal has emerged as a �strong possibility� for the Mets, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.

they both cost a 2nd round pick, they are both good 2 way players at their position but not great, they will cost similar amounts of money, and they both have 1 similar relatively big risk factor (durability since Pollock has been injury prone and Grandal is a catcher > 30).

We can only likely afford 1. Who do you choose?

I think I'd go Grandal because he is safer, and assuming their internal metrics agree he is an elite framer which could help the entire pitching staff enormously. On the flip side there are many more available options at C if you don't get him like Cervelli, Martin, Ramos, etc. Pollock is riskier but it's hard to find another option in CF. Very tricky decision.

In comment 14217843 Eric on Li said:

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they both cost a 2nd round pick, they are both good 2 way players at their position but not great, they will cost similar amounts of money, and they both have 1 similar relatively big risk factor (durability since Pollock has been injury prone and Grandal is a catcher > 30). We can only likely afford 1. Who do you choose? I think I'd go Grandal because he is safer, and assuming their internal metrics agree he is an elite framer which could help the entire pitching staff enormously. On the flip side there are many more available options at C if you don't get him like Cervelli, Martin, Ramos, etc. Pollock is riskier but it's hard to find another option in CF. Very tricky decision.

For what it's worth, Seidler (who has access to the BP database) also confirms on their end Grandal is also elite defensively overall (while acknowledging they have Realmuto better than the FG/Statcorner framing numbers)

In comment 14217802 DanMetroMan said:

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balls are some weird new obsession for fans. Guess which 2 teams led baseball in passed balls... Yankees and Red Sox.

Oh man, you don't know how unbearable people are in the Yankee threads over passed balls. It's the only thing Sanchez doesn't do at least pretty well behind the plate, so of course it's the only thing his detractors ever talk about.

In comment 14217848 Greg from LI said:

Quote:

In comment 14217802 DanMetroMan said: Quote: balls are some weird new obsession for fans. Guess which 2 teams led baseball in passed balls... Yankees and Red Sox. Oh man, you don't know how unbearable people are in the Yankee threads over passed balls. It's the only thing Sanchez doesn't do at least pretty well behind the plate, so of course it's the only thing his detractors ever talk about.

Hardball times has an insanely long feature piece on passed balls which is an excellent read (and not deep stat heavy). It's like some weird new thing to latch onto all of a sudden.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 14217846 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 14217843 Eric on Li said: Quote: they both cost a 2nd round pick, they are both good 2 way players at their position but not great, they will cost similar amounts of money, and they both have 1 similar relatively big risk factor (durability since Pollock has been injury prone and Grandal is a catcher > 30). We can only likely afford 1. Who do you choose? I think I'd go Grandal because he is safer, and assuming their internal metrics agree he is an elite framer which could help the entire pitching staff enormously. On the flip side there are many more available options at C if you don't get him like Cervelli, Martin, Ramos, etc. Pollock is riskier but it's hard to find another option in CF. Very tricky decision. For what it's worth, Seidler (who has access to the BP database) also confirms on their end Grandal is also elite defensively overall (while acknowledging they have Realmuto better than the FG/Statcorner framing numbers)

You didn't choose.

Is a passed ball than an ordinary stolen base?
Keep in mind how little a stolen base is valued in today�s game.

take Grandal over Pollock. More durable, more of a sure thing. I also think it's POSSIBLE Lagares and a platoon partner are okay in CF. I do not feel the same way about Plawecki and TDA (sorry Shecky).

In comment 14217882 DanMetroMan said:

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take Grandal over Pollock. More durable, more of a sure thing. I also think it's POSSIBLE Lagares and a platoon partner are okay in CF. I do not feel the same way about Plawecki and TDA (sorry Shecky).

Lol. I understand. I don�t care much for TDA either...

I like Cervelli almost as much as Grandal. I like his bat better, his contract is better, defensively he's not as good but he's rated well in terms of framing in the past, and based on all the stories about his makeup I think he may be more of a gamer than Grandal. But obviously depends on trade cost.

In comment 14217383 ZGiants98 said:

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last year and is younger. Sounds like Brody wants to add more to the pen, just not more elite SU/CL types because they have other needs, mainly catcher.

No he wasn�t Robertson was basically unhittable for the Yankees in August and September Familia was dreadful for over a month before the Mets dealt him

Maybe on a one season deal. But he wasn�t exactly impressive in the setup role with the A�s. Don�t like it. I would have had more confidence in Robertson as a setup guy. We�ll see

In comment 14217882 DanMetroMan said:

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take Grandal over Pollock. More durable, more of a sure thing. I also think it's POSSIBLE Lagares and a platoon partner are okay in CF. I do not feel the same way about Plawecki and TDA (sorry Shecky).

I�d be willing to give Pollack a big 1y contract like Donaldson got. I don�t see this big market for him. A contract like McCutch is too much of a commitment. You also have to give up a draft pick

asset than Plawecki and it will be easier to pick up another decent center fielder than it will be to pick up a decent catcher.

among free agents only 2 placed ahead of him - Ottavino and Soria. He was tied with Betances and 1 tenth of a point behind Chapman. It was in total the 2nd most valuable season of his career and while his ERA was slightly higher than his career average at 3.1, his FIP was actually lower than his career average at 2.6 (both numbers lower than Robertson). His velocity and pitch mix was in line with the rest of his career according to fangraphs.

He also had the highest K rate of his career and the 10th lowest HR rate of any reliever in baseball.

That is not to crap on Robertson - he had a very similar season and also has experience pitching well in NY. There is 1 big difference though - and that is that he's 5 years older than Familia.

The revisionism about Familia's career here is really crazy to me sometimes. The guy was the MVP of the team from 2015-2016 converting 94 saves and blowing just 10 over that 2 year period pitching more than just about any closer in baseball. He was the difference against the Dodgers. He gave up the homer to Gordon on the infamous quick pitch and he gave up the homer to Gillespie - but every closer gets hit once in a while. Chapman almost blew the WS for the Cubs.

In comment 14218328 Ira said:

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asset than Plawecki and it will be easier to pick up another decent center fielder than it will be to pick up a decent catcher.

This. Both comforto and nimmo can play CF if needed

For years, the BP sucked balls and everyone knew about it. And everyone bitched about. In the past few weeks we�ve acquired a closer who had a historic season. And to set him up, (re) acquired a top 10-15 closer.

A veteran presence has been added to the middle of the lineup. A lineup that sucked balls and everyone knew about it. And everyone bitched about as well. This vetoresence happens to be one of the greatest 2B ever,coming off a great half season.

Everyone bitches the team never spends. The spent. People bitch about the spending.

Everyone hated Bruce and Swarz, mostly due to their contracts. They dumped the contracts. Everyone bitched they were cheap and dumping contracts.

Everyone bitches about the catcher position. So they are chasing literally the two best catchers in the game. Yet everyone is bitching.

Rant over

all due respect but they really haven't spent. Their payroll right now is BELOW 2018 (when they were 15th in baseball in spending). I know you are pro-team and have ties to the team and some of your rant is valid but no, they have not spent the way normal big market teams do. What they do going forward? No clue. But sorry they don't get praise for spending.

needs to hang em up.

Matt Ehalt
‏
So if we assume Mets payroll will be similar to last year (ownership will not answer this question) then Mets have roughly $25 million left to add another reliever, a catcher/outfielder &and perhaps a utility infielder.

IMO this is part of why Van Wagenen is big on trades

Matt Ehalt
‏
Should also be noted Jeff Wilpon has said in past they don't just assume insurance money is off the books/it's not all reinvested into team.

In comment 14218363 Shecky said:

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For years, the BP sucked balls and everyone knew about it. And everyone bitched about. In the past few weeks we�ve acquired a closer who had a historic season. And to set him up, (re) acquired a top 10-15 closer. A veteran presence has been added to the middle of the lineup. A lineup that sucked balls and everyone knew about it. And everyone bitched about as well. This vetoresence happens to be one of the greatest 2B ever,coming off a great half season. Everyone bitches the team never spends. The spent. People bitch about the spending. Everyone hated Bruce and Swarz, mostly due to their contracts. They dumped the contracts. Everyone bitched they were cheap and dumping contracts. Everyone bitches about the catcher position. So they are chasing literally the two best catchers in the game. Yet everyone is bitching. Rant over

I like every addition brodie has made on the field - as Dan said though the issue is that they hamstring themselves by restricting the budget to lower levels than mid markets like Seattle and St Louis. A top 10 budget isn't a lot to ask of a major market NY team that's "going for it". Until the ownerships disingenuous commitment to winning changes the fanbase is going to skew negative.

Almost everything negative from this franchise flows from the attitude at the very top - "if fans show up we'll start spending more". They aim to run this like a business and simultaneously treat their customers like crap. Not exactly a historically successful business model.

In comment 14218427 KevinBBWC said:

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Matt Ehalt ‏ So if we assume Mets payroll will be similar to last year (ownership will not answer this question) then Mets have roughly $25 million left to add another reliever, a catcher/outfielder &and perhaps a utility infielder. IMO this is part of why Van Wagenen is big on trades Matt Ehalt ‏ Should also be noted Jeff Wilpon has said in past they don't just assume insurance money is off the books/it's not all reinvested into team.

I think the $25m sounds about right based on how they've behaved. That's why they view Realmuto as a 2 for 1 since he's cheap + good. I'd hate to do it, but the more I've thought about it there is some logic to building a trade around Nimmo - who while a comparable player with more control, is easier to replace. Could even be McNeil until a spot opens up in the IF for him.

I'd personally prefer to not make anymore significantly risky deals and just add $10m with Cervelli and then value hunt for the final $15m. Maybe you get a veteran OF'er on a 1 year deal. Maybe you trade Dom Smith for someone else's disappointing OF or P. Maybe you sign a P like Gio or Brach to a low risk 1 or 2 year deal.

Save the remaining prospects and budget flexibility for in-season deals once we see how the team looks.

For a SETUP MAN. It�s still being said they didn�t spend money.., net net, they added $90mm to two players. But didn�t spend any money. Added three players that can be considered in the top 10% at their position this offseason. It�s never good enough...

Flame away

In comment 14218423 DanMetroMan said:

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needs to hang em up.

Used to love Cerrone; always felt like he spoke on behalf of the fans. Recently, however, I feel like he's nothing more than a mouthpiece for ownership. I'm not sure how much editorial influence the Mets have over MetsBlog, but it is clear that the change of ownership has changed the tone from what once was an independent fan site.

Which I think is everyone�s point. Any increase from cano is down the road. I would also throw out that if they ate more money in that trade they probably wouldn�t have had to give up kelenic, which further adds to perception of frugality.

Adding back familia is essentially replacing costs we were paying Ramos, swarzak, or any of the other pieces whose contracts are up.

In comment 14218518 Shecky said:

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For a SETUP MAN. It�s still being said they didn�t spend money.., net net, they added $90mm to two players. But didn�t spend any money. Added three players that can be considered in the top 10% at their position this offseason. It�s never good enough... Flame away

That's not exactly a huge increase over what they paid previous setup men (Swarzak and Reed were both in the $7-8m range). And to afford Familia at $10m they had to leverage Kelenic - whom I believe you were very high on if memory serves - to get a cost controlled closer pre-arb closer. So while they deserve credit for upgrading the back end of the bullpen on the field, they are actually spending less $ and to do so they had to give up Kelenic.

In comment 14218533 bhill410 said:

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Which I think is everyone�s point. Any increase from cano is down the road. I would also throw out that if they ate more money in that trade they probably wouldn�t have had to give up kelenic, which further adds to perception of frugality. Adding back familia is essentially replacing costs we were paying Ramos, swarzak, or any of the other pieces whose contracts are up.

Good point - totally forgot about Ramos. Total spending on the BP is definitely down a lot this year vs. last year counting him.

In comment 14218524 csb said:

Quote:

In comment 14218423 DanMetroMan said: Quote: needs to hang em up. Used to love Cerrone; always felt like he spoke on behalf of the fans. Recently, however, I feel like he's nothing more than a mouthpiece for ownership. I'm not sure how much editorial influence the Mets have over MetsBlog, but it is clear that the change of ownership has changed the tone from what once was an independent fan site.

If we say that he is the mouthpiece for the Mets, is that such a bad thing? We now have an insight into what management is thinking. As long as we no longer think Cerrone is speaking for the fans, let�s take it for what it�s worth.

In comment 14218541 SJGiant said:

Quote:

In comment 14218524 csb said: Quote: In comment 14218423 DanMetroMan said: Quote: needs to hang em up. Used to love Cerrone; always felt like he spoke on behalf of the fans. Recently, however, I feel like he's nothing more than a mouthpiece for ownership. I'm not sure how much editorial influence the Mets have over MetsBlog, but it is clear that the change of ownership has changed the tone from what once was an independent fan site. If we say that he is the mouthpiece for the Mets, is that such a bad thing? We now have an insight into what management is thinking. As long as we no longer think Cerrone is speaking for the fans, let�s take it for what it�s worth.

I don't think it is all negative - to your point it might give you a look inside the org. On the negative side, they are always trying to 'spin' the fanbase and the shitty results.

Does anyone really think the team had a CHOICE in eating more money and keeping Kelenic???

I�ve always been the guy who hates people that point out payroll. Give me a 25 man squad of minimum wage Ocunas and a $15mm
Yaroslavl and I�d be quite happy. So I don�t want to hear payroll. Until they have a choice to get a guy and balk due to $$. When that�s the on,y factor, I agree you can complain.

But they added a young dominant closer. A top 10 closer to set him up. And a hal, of fame 2B to bat in the middle of the lineup so far.
Lost Ramos, Swarz, and Bruce. Oh, and Reyes, can�t forget him...
convinced if they signed Harper and Machado today we�d see nothing but bitching about the two draft picks and 1mm in slot we gave up lol

In comment 14218550 Shecky said:

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Does anyone really think the team had a CHOICE in eating more money and keeping Kelenic??? I�ve always been the guy who hates people that point out payroll. Give me a 25 man squad of minimum wage Ocunas and a $15mm Yaroslavl and I�d be quite happy. So I don�t want to hear payroll. Until they have a choice to get a guy and balk due to $$. When that�s the on,y factor, I agree you can complain. But they added a young dominant closer. A top 10 closer to set him up. And a hal, of fame 2B to bat in the middle of the lineup so far. Lost Ramos, Swarz, and Bruce. Oh, and Reyes, can�t forget him... convinced if they signed Harper and Machado today we�d see nothing but bitching about the two draft picks and 1mm in slot we gave up lol

Shecky. I usually don�t reply to these statements. It appears to me you are really getting emotionally involved in this discussion. Life is too short to let people get under your skin. Let people think what they want to think. Only time will tell if this teams meets 2018 payroll or increases payroll.